Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 2010)

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12654
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Suraj » 08 Oct 2013 23:58

Austin wrote:Any idea of what % India holds of US Debt

Official US Treasury Department Data on Foreign Holders of US Treasury Debt

TSJones
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3022
Joined: 14 Oct 1999 11:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby TSJones » 09 Oct 2013 00:28

Suraj wrote:
Austin wrote:Any idea of what % India holds of US Debt

Official US Treasury Department Data on Foreign Holders of US Treasury Debt


Thanks for the data Suraj. Much appreciated.

svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14223
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby svinayak » 09 Oct 2013 01:11

The following is an excerpt from a recent article by Christopher K. Potter, the president of Northern Border Capital Management….
For three thousand years China has been at the forefront of monetary innovation. It was the first to legalize gold money in the tenth century BC and two millennia later it issued the world’s first paper currency. Fast forward to 2012 and China is at it again, eclipsing Australia as the largest producer of gold and increasing its monetary gold reserves at an alarming rate. Five years ago China surpassed the US in gold production and five years from now it will own more gold than the US Federal government.
Do not dismiss this as just another example of China’s insatiable appetite for natural resources. It is not. China is preparing for a world beyond the inconvertible paper dollar, a world in which the renminbi, buttressed by gold, becomes the dominant reserve currency.
Lest anyone doubt China’s resolve, just consider the following: The Chinese government has recently removed all restrictions on personal ownership of gold; legalized domestic gold exchange traded funds; is currently purchasing 100% of domestic gold mine production; has imported over 750 tons of gold (27% of global output) in the last 12 months; stated publically its intention to add 1,000 tons per year to its central bank gold reserves; and is buying major stakes in foreign gold mining companies. The scale of this initiative is extraordinary.

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-b ... -attention

TSJones
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3022
Joined: 14 Oct 1999 11:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby TSJones » 09 Oct 2013 02:50

^^^^^ How is China going to have the world's reserve currency with its top down restrictive economy? If they want to make the renminbi the gold standard that would do it but otherwise............


svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14223
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby svinayak » 09 Oct 2013 03:40

Challenges for the Dollar as Reserve Currency

Beyond the Dollar
Rethinking the International Monetary System


Introduction: No New Bretton Woods, but a System in Flux
2 Reconsidering the Reserve Currency Question
3 Lessons from History
4 Challenges for the Dollar as Reserve Currency
5 The Fall-back Position
6 A Roadmap for SDR Evolution
7 A Twenty-first Century International Monetary System: Two Scenarios
8 China Debates: The Dollar System and Beyond

Neshant
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4840
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Neshant » 09 Oct 2013 09:25

The whole reason the G20 is being promoted instead of the erstwhile G8 is to setup the SDR currency system. You can tell who the main members of the SDR will be - its the same members that constitute the G20.

As it becomes apparent that the west is not going to pay their debts in today's purchasing power terms, there will be a call to shift to SDRs.

However make no mistake. The SDR system will produce just as much worthless toilet paper currency as the present national sovereign fiat regime. It's a system which is just as much a con as the creation of money as debt by private banking crooks. As with all worthless currencies, the only way it will have value is if it is forced upon nations through draconian laws which keep the power of money creation in the hands of private banking goons and "wise men" at the top.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23315
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Austin » 09 Oct 2013 12:03

Suraj wrote:
Austin wrote:Any idea of what % India holds of US Debt

Official US Treasury Department Data on Foreign Holders of US Treasury Debt


Thanks Suraj , Seems like our exposure of ~ $60 billion is low compared to many 100's of billions that other have invested in ......no wonder Japan and China is shouting on top of the roof to avoid default :lol:

Christopher Sidor
BRFite
Posts: 1436
Joined: 13 Jul 2010 11:02

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Christopher Sidor » 09 Oct 2013 18:53

Acharya wrote:When did the Dollar Replace Sterling as the Leading Reserve Currency?

A final question is what this episode tells us about the future and specifically about the
danger of a scramble out of dollar reserves. As we write, foreign central banks are growing
anxious that a further decline in the dollar and U.S. credit problems might result in additional
capital losses on their dollar balances.

And today, just as in the 1930s, there exists an alternative
reserve asset, namely the euro, issued by a large economy possessing deep and liquid financial
markets.



:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Euro ??
An Alternative to USD? And that too as a reserve currency?
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Oh god please stop my stomach is aching.

This suggests that if central banks and governments want to shift out of both U.S. and
European securities, they are more likely to shift into claims on real assets other than gold, for
example purchasing equities through their sovereign wealth funds.

On a more sombre note which equities? American and European Equities? When Indian equities are impacted by our sovereign ratings guess what would happen to american equities after an american sovereign default.
What is being said over here is that US Fed, BoE, ECB, etc would become a Asset Management Company like a Mutual Fund entity. Don't see that happening. No way.

I do not think that US Government is going to default. It is going to muddle through. Maybe the shutdown will be last a bit more longer. But US Government will in most likely scenario pay its bills.

vera_k
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2972
Joined: 20 Nov 2006 13:45

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby vera_k » 09 Oct 2013 20:41

A default is coming, because the President looks helpless and doesn't have support. I'd have expected at least one video of an important conservative Congressman banging another male conservative to have surfaced by now.

paramu
BRFite
Posts: 669
Joined: 20 May 2008 11:38

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby paramu » 09 Oct 2013 23:47

Why do GOTUS and media keeps on talking about default, when they could have said that US has to cut a set of programs to service the debt, and discuss about those cuts? Impact of such cuts would certainly be smaller than the impact of default.

panduranghari
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3751
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby panduranghari » 10 Oct 2013 02:01

Christopher Sidor wrote:
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Euro ??
An Alternative to USD? And that too as a reserve currency?
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Oh god please stop my stomach is aching.


viewtopic.php?p=1469852#p1469852

TSJones
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3022
Joined: 14 Oct 1999 11:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby TSJones » 10 Oct 2013 07:14

vera_k wrote:A default is coming, because the President looks helpless and doesn't have support. I'd have expected at least one video of an important conservative Congressman banging another male conservative to have surfaced by now.


There will be no default. I have thought this through. Why? Because the republican oligarchs and tea party financiers such as the billionaire Koch brothers who are locked in tight to the US economy fears default and disavows it. The Tea party must follow their financiers. The partial shut down of US government may continue but the debt limit will be raised.

US treasuries are the bed rock of the global financial system. No republican dares to tamper with it. Their bosses could be severely hurt.

I am by no means a financial guru and I am not rich, but I can tell which way the wind blows.

However, be warned. There is a nightmare scenario. That is the oligarches may have created a monster like Frankenstein. It may no longer be under their control because they have installed Jacobin revolutionaries in office. The Jacobites may be beyond control and reason. Once the guillotine gets started it is hard to stop. This not a likely scenario but a possible one.
Last edited by TSJones on 10 Oct 2013 07:34, edited 1 time in total.

Nandu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2195
Joined: 08 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Nandu » 10 Oct 2013 07:22

TSJ, the long term damage to the economy is already done. US has already been downgraded. Now there is news that big investors like Fidelity have already completely sold out of short term US treasury bills.

About ten years ago, there was a book out called "What's the Matter with Kansas?", which asked the question. How come the people negatively affected by the GoP's economic policies, i.e. the working people of Kansas, end up voting for it?

Now, we have to ask the question. How come the economically advantaged, rich, stock owning class of people, who gain the most from a good economy, support the Republican Party, which is actively engaged in sabotaging the American economy wholesale?

Neshant
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4840
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Neshant » 10 Oct 2013 07:36

The "solution" that both parties will agree upon is off loading the debt burden (incurred from bailing out bad bets of private bankers) onto the backs of society through increased taxation, cuts and other forms of robbery.

That's what this is all about - how to raise taxes and cut pensions and medical care to pay for the multi trillion dollar banker bailout tab without the public clueing in.

Thus this will be presented as a crisis borne out of over spending on public services when in fact it's a crisis of over spending on banker bailouts.
Last edited by Neshant on 10 Oct 2013 07:37, edited 1 time in total.

TSJones
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3022
Joined: 14 Oct 1999 11:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby TSJones » 10 Oct 2013 07:37

^^^^^Nandu I have added a new paragraph to my message above. I think it present another scenario.

The financiers will have to promote new candidates for the republican party but it may be in the ashes of the global financial system.
Last edited by TSJones on 10 Oct 2013 07:46, edited 1 time in total.

TSJones
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3022
Joined: 14 Oct 1999 11:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby TSJones » 10 Oct 2013 07:40

^^^ Neshant, you may be right.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23315
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Austin » 10 Oct 2013 10:06

IMF Says Russian Economic Growth Model Exhausted

MOSCOW, October 9 (RIA Novosti) – The International Monetary Fund warned in a report published Wednesday that Russia’s economic model has exhausted itself and predicted that future growth will be constrained by negative demographic trends.

The IMF’s annual World Economic Outlook said that the Russian economy has managed to grow on the back of rising oil prices and by using up spare capacity, but that this formula will no longer work.

Growth prospects in Russia, the IMF said, “have been dampened by a weak external environment, some acceleration of capital outflows and declining equity prices and subdued investment.”

The IMF also warned that demographic changes are likely to cap future economic potential. Russia's dependent population is growing, and the working-age population is expected to shrink by one million people every year through 2017, according to the World Bank.

Problems that Russia could afford to ignore will now come to the fore, the IMF suggested. These include "inadequate physical infrastructure, including the transportation and electricity networks; overreliance on commodities; and a weak business climate,” the Fund said.

The government predicts that the Russian economy will grow 1.8 percent this year, the lowest rate since the 2009 financial crisis. Growth in Russia in 2012 fell to 3.4 percent from 4.3 percent a year earlier.

The IMF is more pessimistic in its growth forecasts than Moscow. It predicts in its report that growth in Russia will be 1.5 percent in 2013, down from the 2.5 percent forecast in July.

Kremlin critics say the government is unprepared to undertake the structural reforms that could increase investment and unlock higher economic growth rates.

Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin warned in an interview Wednesday that Russia is a hair's breadth away from recession.

"Negative growth is already a crisis," he told Novaya Gazeta newspaper. "If some sort of world platform provokes a deterioration in international competitiveness, it could lead to a negative growth rate."

President Vladimir Putin, whose government has been forced to make cuts to its 2014 budget because of the worsening economic situation, has promised huge state investment in infrastructure and urged an increase in productivity in an attempt to boost growth.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Theo_Fidel » 10 Oct 2013 10:28

Neshant,

Blame Messrs Reagan & Bush 2. Both of them cut tax and raised spending with the end result that now food stamps and poverty programs are being gutted. Bush 1 was cutleted after trying to balance the budget. It is amazing the not one politician has mentioned where this deficit came from. It almost like there is a memory deficit disorder. If there is one thing Americans do, it is send this chart to their congressman/woman.

Image

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23315
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Austin » 10 Oct 2013 10:46

Putin seeks to double labor productivity to end ‘oil needle’ reliance
“The key bottleneck for the Russian economy is its low efficiency,” the President told businessmen, investors, and state officials at the Forum.

In terms of GDP, "we are poised to become Europe's number one economy and the fifth biggest in the world," Putin said, adding that Russia is on a par with other countries in the EU in terms of per capita GDP and consumption.

In 2012 Russia overtook Germany in the World Bank ranking to take 5th place on the list of the world’s biggest economies in terms of purchasing power parity (PPS)

However, labor productivity is now less than half the level of most developed economies – at 3.1 percent. In coming years, productivity must increase by 5%-6% a year, twice the current rate. "Only in this way can we overcome the efficiency gap," the president said. "I am confident that we are capable of doing that," he concluded.

The current abyss between consumption and productivity is dangerous, Putin said. “Living off rent from natural resources, at the expense of future generations, unearned wealth cannot be stable or long term," he added.


panduranghari
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3751
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby panduranghari » 10 Oct 2013 12:24

TSJones wrote:
vera_k wrote:A default is coming, because the President looks helpless and doesn't have support. I'd have expected at least one video of an important conservative Congressman banging another male conservative to have surfaced by now.


There will be no default. I have thought this through. Why? Because the republican oligarchs and tea party financiers such as the billionaire Koch brothers who are locked in tight to the US economy fears default and disavows it. The Tea party must follow their financiers. The partial shut down of US government may continue but the debt limit will be raised.

US treasuries are the bed rock of the global financial system. No republican dares to tamper with it. Their bosses could be severely hurt.

I am by no means a financial guru and I am not rich, but I can tell which way the wind blows.

However, be warned. There is a nightmare scenario. That is the oligarches may have created a monster like Frankenstein. It may no longer be under their control because they have installed Jacobin revolutionaries in office. The Jacobites may be beyond control and reason. Once the guillotine gets started it is hard to stop. This not a likely scenario but a possible one.


Agreed. Why default when you can easily print more.

panduranghari
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3751
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby panduranghari » 10 Oct 2013 17:45

vishvak wrote:Instead of griping Saudis, we should understand energy situation. Energy in ALL forms- Natural Gas, Petroleum products- is priced unevenly in different continents. In USA, Europe logic is availability of different sources and that reduces prices because of competition. In Asia logic is dependence on gulf crude, transport cost, lack of competition and lack of independent pricing mechanism. In short logic can be enforced anyway even in mutually exclusive pieces. One has to find better situation- for example oil from Nigeria to India- does it increase competition or is that ignored under label of 'Asian premium' or any such labels.


Rahul Mehta wrote:USD is reserve currency due to US Military's strength
So if anyone tries to make crude oil or gold as reserve currency will go Saddam way or Qaddafi way.
Solution is that we need to make our Military equally strong



TSJones wrote:Well then, gripe at the Saudis. :)



SBajwa wrote:Only a half statement!! Saudis have no other options.
USD is a reserve currency because Researchers based in USA figured out the utility of the petroleum, figured out the way to get the petroleum out of the ground and put them to use (from making roads, cars, planes, etc). Saudis did nothing and are getting paid handsomely because American companies found Crude oil in their Bedouin land.


FOFOA- Dead End

Oil has been the key to the fantastic success of the West over this period of time. Therefore it follows that the true VALUE of oil is immeasurable! We complain when the cost of a gallon of gas rises to nearly $5, but can we possibly know the true VALUE until we have to do without?

The COST of living without oil is perhaps the greatest burden [PUNISHMENT] that can be placed on a modern nation. For this reason, oil is the MOST POLITICAL TANGIBLE.

In the past, nations have paid a VERY HIGH PRICE for oil when man made conditions prohibited (rather than ENABLED) the "CHEAP flow" of oil. South Africa under sanctions (1985-1991) is one example.

So what is the TRUE PRICE of oil? What is the TRUE VALUE of oil? Is it $3 per gallon of gasoline? Or is it the VERY DEAR PRICE we would pay if it wasn't flowing our way?

What is a responsible government to do? It must look to the future and SECURE the inflow of oil. Why has the US stopped looking for new oil in the ground? Because long ago it SECURED the "CHEAP flow" of oil! A man made phenomenon! The future "CHEAP flow" of oil can only be secured three ways. 1.) Own the oil in the ground,
2.) amass wealth reserves desired by those who own the oil in the ground, or
3.) fool (trick) OTHERS into paying the VERY HIGH PRICE (in gold) for the "CHEAP flow" of oil to your shores.

Arabia has oil in the ground. It does not have gold in the ground. But it does VALUE the precious metal very highly. It always has. Even BEFORE oil became WEALTH.

The exploding world dependence on the "CHEAP flow" of oil has brought GREAT WEALTH to Arabia. Up until 1971 the ease of trading oil for dollars was accepted because these "casino chips" could be exchanged at the CASHIER WINDOW (the gold window). Then, in 1971 the "CASHIER" was closed for good.

What followed was "the oil crisis of 1973".
From Wikipedia:
End of Bretton Woods

On August 15, 1971, the United States pulled out of the Bretton Woods Accord taking the US off the Gold Exchange Standard (whereby only the value of the US dollar had been pegged to the price of gold and all other currencies were pegged to the US dollar), allowing the dollar to "float". Shortly thereafter, Britain followed, floating the pound sterling. The industrialized nations followed suit with their respective currencies. In anticipation of the fluctuation of currencies as they stabilized against each other, the industrialized nations also increased their reserves (printing money) in amounts far greater than ever before. The result was a depreciation of the value of the US dollar, as well as the other currencies of the world. Because oil was priced in dollars, this meant that oil producers were receiving less real income for the same price. The OPEC cartel issued a joint communique stating that forthwith they would price a barrel of oil against gold. This led to the "Oil Shock" of the mid-seventies... Until the Oil Shock, the price remained fairly stable versus other currencies and commodities, but suddenly became extremely volatile thereafter... The substantial price increases of 1973-74 largely caught up their incomes to Bretton Woods levels in terms of other commodities such as gold.


Then, in the early 1980's, the situation was brought back under control. A leveraged system of paper gold forward sales was set up to keep the price of gold (DOWN) under control, so that OTHER people's PHYSICAL gold could be shipped to Arabia at a low DOLLAR price. This would satisfy "the owners of the oil in the ground" and SECURE the "CHEAP flow" of oil to the US who had the SOLE privilege of creating those dollars out of thin air.

From Another:USA GOLD
It's more complicated than this but here is a close explanation. In the beginning the CBs didn't sell their own gold. They ( thru third party ) found someone else who had bullion. That "party" sold to a broker who sold forward for a mine or speculator or government ) . In the end the 3rd party had the backing from the broker that he had backing from the CB to supply physical if needed to put out a fire. The CB held a very private note from the broker as insurance and was paid a small fee. This process mobilized free standing bullion outside the government stockpiles. The world currency gold price was kept down as large existing physical stockpiles were replaced by notes of future delivery from the merchant banks ( and anyone else who wanted to play ) .

This whole game was not lost on some very large buyers WHO WANTED GOLD BUT DIDN'T WANT IT'S MOVEMENT TO BE SEEN! Why not move a little closer to the action by offering cash directly to the broker/bank ( to be lent out ) in return for a future gold note that was indirectly backed by the CBs. That "paper gold" was just like gold in the bank. The CBs liked it because no one had to move gold and it took BIG buying power off the market that would have gunned the price! It also worked well as a vehicle to cycle oil wealth for gold as a complete paper deal.


So, in 1983 Barrick Gold was formed...

And once again physical gold was flowing INTO Arabia and "CHEAP" oil was flowing OUT. But SOMEONE was paying the TRUE PRICE for this oil.

Then, probably sometime in the early 1990's, a group of Europeans that had been planning for a single currency in the "Eurozone" with the ECU that began in 1979 (at the height of the dollar crisis) and later became the EMU and the Euro, came to the realization that the path the dollar (and the entire international monetary and financial system) was on was essentially a DEAD END. It was not sustainable! At some point in the future this system, and its MONETARY FOUNDATION, would (MUST) collapse. This was not a plot to collapse the dollar. It was, instead, a RECOGNITION of the inevitable!


So what is a responsible government to do?
"It must look to the future and SECURE the inflow of oil." And given the three choices listed above, ONLY ONE COULD WORK! [2.) amass wealth reserves desired by those who own the oil in the ground.]

So the Euro was founded with the requirement that gold reserves MUST be (PHYSICALLY) held and MUST be marked to the (RISING) market price of gold. What the Euro architects recognized was that this new dollar PAPER gold market would (MUST) at some point transition into a purely PHYSICAL gold market. This was a MATHEMATICAL CERTAINTY.

link

Everyone knows where we have been. Let's see where we are going!

It was once said that "gold and oil can never flow in the same direction". If the current price of oil doesn't change soon we will no doubt run out of gold.

This line of thinking is very real in the world today but it is never discussed openly. You see oil flow is the key to gold flow. It is the movement of gold in the hidden background that has kept oil at these low prices. Not military might, not a strong US dollar, not political pressure, no it was real [PHYSICAL] gold. In very large amounts. Oil is the only commodity in the world that was large enough for gold to hide in. No one could make the South African / Asian connection when the question was asked, "how could LBMA do so many gold deals and not impact the price". That's because oil is being partially used to pay for gold! ["CHEAP oil to the West" was the HIDDEN part of the price Arabia was paying for large quantities of PHYSICAL gold. HIDDEN --"gold hiding in oil"-- and did not affect the VISIBLE $demand fundamentals because most Westerners were perfectly happy with PAPER gold] We are going to find out that the price of gold, in terms of real money ( oil ) has gone thru the roof over these last few years.

Nandu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2195
Joined: 08 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Nandu » 10 Oct 2013 19:33

panduranghari wrote:Agreed. Why default when you can easily print more.

Print what, exactly? The US govt creates money not by printing, but by borrowing, which is what the debt ceiling will stop them from doing.

Nandu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2195
Joined: 08 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Nandu » 10 Oct 2013 19:41

TSJ, the Koch brothers and the pols they finance are ideologues, of the Randian persuasion. This is their version of Atlas shrugging, and just as in the novel, they don't care if the economy suffers. In fact, they want it.

This is not about them, the few extremists on the right. This is about the whole Republican party that is collaborating with them, even when they know the result will be disastrous.

I've personally benefited from the Bush tax cuts. My pocketbook has been hit from Obama's rollback of those cuts. That makes me a natural GOP voter. But not after this month.

svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14223
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby svinayak » 10 Oct 2013 20:28

Image

Theo_Fidel

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Theo_Fidel » 10 Oct 2013 20:36

panduranghari wrote:Oil has been the key to the fantastic success of the West over this period of time.


Not just the West. All of us. Without oil and other fossil fuel, there is no 1.2 Billion Indians and certainly no 1.4 Billion Chinese. There is no 7 Billion humans on the planet either. The carrying capacity of the Indian landmass was closer to 100 million max before fossil energy. Even this population triggered significant famines every so often when the rains failed. Without Hydrocarbons of some sort, India/World population will collapse.

Image
----------------------------------

Nandu,

Not Randian, think survivalist or rapturist.
-----------------------------

The reason these nut bags don’t fear a debt default is that at the back of their minds they hope that this will hasten the rapture.

At which point all the wicked, meaning us and all who don’t agree, will be cast into hell and the ‘pure’ will inherit the earth, meaning presumably the Koch brothers. In their world, where things like the end of the world is by fire or ice is debated, little things like debt default are unimportant. Anything to hasten the end of the world is to be celebrated. But keep your AR-15’s and the dooms day bunker handy. Or like William Koch amass a 150 gun arsenal. Presumably you are 150 times safer than the guy with just one measly gun.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/on- ... pocalypse/

Disturbingly, the “death wish” scenario seems more plausible this time. Republican voters seem to be cheering on their representatives to not negotiate, but in fact urging them toward default. According to a recent WashingtonPost/ABC poll, “66 percentof Republicans Want Their Representatives to Cause an Economic Catastrophe.”


All of what Americans have been enduring has produced such anxiety that it gets manifested in this impulse: ‘just crash the whole thing.’

Bring down the house. Just end it.

This desire to crash the whole thing is also the driver behind religiously driven extremism. It is the longing to destroy everything with the idea this will actually “save” us. After the destruction, we can start over, either with a new political leadership in charge, or in a heavenly “Rapture” in Christian terms.

vishvak
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 5337
Joined: 12 Aug 2011 21:19

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby vishvak » 10 Oct 2013 20:46

In the previous crisis when several banks were deemed officially too big to fail and US government got the banks out. Now debt is rising and reduction in debt can't be used up to bail out. The bail out routine won't work now will it? Once debt ceiling is raised it becomes clear that Republicans have no excuse to continue the government shutdown. The shutdown/crisis is Republican penalty on US growth rate. Maybe Republicans are after some cheaper energy source that is used selectively based on whatever can be made up.

TSJones
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3022
Joined: 14 Oct 1999 11:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby TSJones » 10 Oct 2013 21:13

*If* the financiers lose control of their stooges, the US and the global financial system could be in deep, deep, trouble. The French Jacobins demanded ideological purity and used the guillotine to enforce it. The US Jacobins are using the destruction of the global system and indeed, as you guys have pointed out, relish it. Furthermore, you know who came after the Jacobins? .........Napoleon, First Consul for Life

TSJones
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3022
Joined: 14 Oct 1999 11:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby TSJones » 10 Oct 2013 21:17

Here's another puppet master billionaire political financier and operative:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_George_Peterson

TSJones
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3022
Joined: 14 Oct 1999 11:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby TSJones » 10 Oct 2013 21:34

Nandu wrote:
panduranghari wrote:Agreed. Why default when you can easily print more.

Print what, exactly? The US govt creates money not by printing, but by borrowing, which is what the debt ceiling will stop them from doing.


Nandu, the Federal Reserve mandates that the US banking system use US treasuries as reserves which is one of the main ways the Federal Reserve controls the money supply. It also uses the interest rate at its "Discount Window" when the banks need loans to service its financial holdings to control the money supply. For the US, "electronic money" far outnumbers the actual printing of cash. In fact the majority of printed US cash is overseas. And as you already know, US treasuries are the foundation of it all.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Theo_Fidel » 10 Oct 2013 21:35

TSJones wrote:Here's another puppet master billionaire political financier and operative:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_George_Peterson


...and rootless first generation immigrant.

TSJones
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3022
Joined: 14 Oct 1999 11:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby TSJones » 10 Oct 2013 21:48

Ayn Rand sure liked social security and medicare when she qualified for it through her husband's contributions to the system.

TSJones
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3022
Joined: 14 Oct 1999 11:31

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby TSJones » 10 Oct 2013 23:15

France is number two in creating millionaires:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-create ... 09907.html

The French? Where did they get their bling?

panduranghari
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3751
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby panduranghari » 11 Oct 2013 11:16

Nandu wrote:
panduranghari wrote:Agreed. Why default when you can easily print more.

Print what, exactly? The US govt creates money not by printing, but by borrowing, which is what the debt ceiling will stop them from doing.


Borrowing from federal reserve who is told to create money. Dude you cannot take me for a financial nincompoop. Do you honestly think the debt ceiling won't be raised?

How many times was debt ceiling raise opposed during Reagan's time. Please go and read up. The USG had stopped for 2 months during Reagan's time. How many days has ombabas USG stopped currently? Not even a month.

If history has taught us anything, there is no chance that debt ceiling won't be raised. All political posturing is to find someone to blame when election times come and the economy is imploding.

On point of principle I support keeping debt ceiling.

The point deflationists miss is the political will backing the whole charade will make the congress vote for increasing debt ceiling. The cue will be petrol becoming expensive. You heard it here first.

The federal reserve will print eventually when cash becomes scarce. But they will. Do you want to bet 1000$?


Return to “Technology & Economic Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests