Bharat Rakshak Forum Announcement

Hello Everyone,

A warm welcome back to the Bharat Rakshak Forum.

Important Notice: Due to a corruption in the BR forum database we regret to announce that data records relating to some of our registered users have been lost. We estimate approx. 500 user details are deleted.

To ease the process of recreating the user IDs we request members that have previously posted on the BR forums to recognise and identify their posts, once the posts are identified please contact the BRF moderator team by emailing BRF Mod Team with your post details.

The mod team will be able to update your username, email etc. so that the user history can be maintained.

Unfortunately for members that have never posted or have had all their posts deleted i.e. users that have 0 posts, we will be unable to recreate your account hence we request that you re-register again.

We apologise for any inconvenience caused and thank you for your understanding.

Regards,
Seetal

Solar energy in India

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
durairaaj
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 68
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby durairaaj » 02 Jun 2017 17:22

Welcome Theo, really missed your commentaries on many of the threads here.
I have to admit that I expected the worst, since your last post was just before the onset of Chennai floods one and a half years ago.
I'm glad you are back.
Your comments add value to many of the discussions.

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7571
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 02 Jun 2017 22:40

Thx guys. Good to be vertical again!
----------------------

Solar+Battery
While we are at it. Roughly Rs2.50/kw w/ subsidies or Rs4.50/kw w/o subsidies. I actually think India can do a lot better. Our climate is more thermally stable and easier on the higher temperature battery chemistry's.

This should be the next pond for GOI to test the waters. Maybe small 50 mw battery banks first, then drive down the cost and develop the technical ability in nation. The material cost for commodity level LIion Battery is about $12 per kw. So there is a lot of cost cutting available. Technology is very immature still.

Also note that if I were a gas power peaker, I'd be worried right now. Time to delivery for gas power peakers is around 7 minutes. Time to delivery for battery, 0.25 seconds. Ramp rate, unlimited for battery.

Updated: Tucson Electric signs solar + storage PPA for 'less than 4.5¢/kWh'

Tucson Electric Power has signed a power purchase agreement for a solar-plus-storage system at "an all-in cost significantly less than $0.045/kWh over 20 years," according to a company official. Exact prices are confidential, but a release pegged the PPA for the solar portion of the project at below $0.03/kWh.


That proposal noted a 2015 solar-plus-storage PPA signed in Hawaii for $0.145/kWh. At that price, it posited, the clean generation could compete with conventional peakers in Arizona, which produce power close at to $0.20/kWh.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 902
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Gyan » 11 Jun 2017 13:19

It seems that latest bids in Dubai for CSP + storage have gone down to US Cents 9.5 per kWh. While in Chile it has gone down to US cents 6.3 per kWh. CSP plus molten salt storage is very important for India as it would release our energy industry from any potential long term import dependency associated with PV or Li Ion Battery. I think we should start working on pilot plants of CSP + molten salt storage to gain experience. I think that combination of 6-8 hr PV, with one hr Li Ion battery storage for peaking, CSP with 18 hr molten salt storage can be achieved in India for price of Rs. 5 Per unit which is half the estimate of 5 years ago. This price is less than Imported nuclear plants, thermal based on imported coal, or gas. Only pit head coal based power or indigenous nuke plants or hydros may be able to match this tariff.

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7571
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 13 Jun 2017 23:36

A cost low is being tested. Sub $1 per watt solar at utility scale. About Rs 6,000 Crore for a 1000 MW plant. Still not at bottom as map exists to get to 20 cents a watt for the solar panels. So another 20 cents can be shaved off.

Take a look at those charts, they are very instructive.

U.S. utility-scale solar falls below US$1 per watt

However, this collapse and similar declines in the prices of other components has helped the U.S. utility-scale solar sector to reach a new record. The report found that for the first time, the average price of fixed-tilt solar PV systems has fallen a penny below $1 per watt-DC, a 6% decline from the previous quarter.

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7571
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 06 Jul 2017 01:23

Meanwhile...

Rs3.47 in TN, including land cost. Which very creditable. Esp. in an imported coal state.
Potential for further reductions in future.

https://energyinfrapost.com/solar-tarif ... -auctions/

Tariffs for solar power in Tamil Nadu touched as low as Rs 3.47/unit in reverse-auctions held over the weekend. The biddings were done for 1,500 MW solar plants. The tariff is much lower than Rs 4.40/unit, which was the lowest bid in February’s solar tariff auction conducted by the state. Nevertheless, it is still much higher than Rs 2.44/unit, discovered in May at the reverse auctions for solar plants at Rajasthan’s Bhadla. “The auction was always expected to deliver rates below the regulated tariff (Rs 4.50/unit) due to decline in equipment costs, but it has not achieved the full potential,” said Kameswara Rao, partner at PwC. According to sources, 1,500 MW was distributed to 18 companies out of the 25 firms that participated in the bidding. State-owned NLC India Ltd, a traditional mining firm, was awarded 449 MW of solar plants. Bengaluru-based Raasi Green Earth Energy Ltd quoted the lowest bid of Rs 3.47/unit. Reputed solar companies which presented their bids include Rays Power Infra, Renew Power and Shapoorji Pallonji Infra. These companies were awarded 200 MW, 100 MW and 50 MW respectively.

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7571
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 06 Jul 2017 01:25

Also..

Reports says that India has lowest cost of Utility solar in the world. ~ $0.65 per watt! Due to low labor costs.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/research ... ng-h1-2017

Image

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7571
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 11 Jul 2017 03:21

I'm deeply conflicted on this one.
Rs 20,000 crore is a lot of money. But importing is also a lot of money.
Even @ 5 GW/year, India companies won't have scale to compete.

Why o why is life filled with these sorts of devil's choices...

-------------------------
Finance Ministry Rejects Rs 20,000-crore plan for local solar equipment firms

http://energy.economictimes.indiatimes. ... s/59279143

The domestic industry is concerned about rising imports of solar equipment, which rose 38 per cent to Rs 21,400 crore in 2016-17, accounting for 90 per cent of the solar cells and modules used by Indian solar developers.


According to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, India imported 161.5 million solar panels in financial year 2014–15. Of these, 113.5 million panels, or 70%, were imported from China. This marked a significant increase from the 65% share of Chinese modules in financial year 2013–14. Of the total 154.1 million panels imported that year, 100.4 million came from China.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6550
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 11 Jul 2017 05:54

Theoji,

That's $3.13 billion at current exchange rates. Importing is expensive too, especially junk Chinese panels whose long term efficiency is in doubt, but in this case it would put the current account deficit in a bigger hole. Perhaps that money is better spent in research on nuclear power, fusion, and fuel cells.

Varoon Shekhar
BRFite
Posts: 1593
Joined: 03 Jan 2010 23:26

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Varoon Shekhar » 11 Jul 2017 06:57

Why did India, which was one of the first countries to get into solar cell and module production, allow itself to be so dependent on other countries? Didn't they see the growth of solar technology coming? There is a PSU Central Electronics Ltd, which I believe was one of the first companies in all of Asia to delve into this line. Where did India trip up, simply absence of a plan to invest?

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7571
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 12 Jul 2017 02:52

Varoon Shekhar wrote:Where did India trip up, simply absence of a plan to invest?


It wasn’t just India. The entire world other than China/Taiwan was caught with its pants down. Witness the desperate moves in USA to save their domestic industry. All of this was foreseeable, and years ago on BRF folks like me, (Chanakya, where is he) did the math to show that at increasing scale solar would approach 2 cents/kw ~ Rs 1 per kw, at which point all bets are off. Though to be honest even I underestimated the speed of the impact on the Thermal Power companies.

The main problem as I see it was that MNRE in 2007-2009, finally notified in 2012 time frame, had a total Solar power target of 10,000mw by 2022. Or about 1,000 MW of solar manufacturing per year. Note that that exactly matches the present production capacity. Some one within GOI planning commissioned that. Meanwhile China took it more seriously and installed the equipment for 38,000MW of panels in one year. They now have equipment to produce 76,000MW/year of equipment. And are working on doubling it again to 150,000 MW/year by 2020. My own view is that it was Anil Kakodkar who was special appointed by MMS at the time to lead the solar install movement who should take a chunk of blame for this. Mr Kakodkar was a Nuclear guy, and either he or folks in his circles either directly or had the ear of people in the know who said that 1,000MW would be adequate and down played the potential of solar. At that time I said that appointing Mr Kakodkar was a questionable move and I ended up getting shouted down. I think you can still go back and read these notes on BRF. A simple back of the envelope calculation in the right circles could have saved India Solar manufacturing. But it wasn’t done, so here we are…. ….India now installs about 10 times manufacturing capacity per year right now. There are single solar power plants that have more than 1,000 MW equipment in them. TN just concluded a single tender for 1.5 GW. GOI has reset the target to 175,000MW by 2025. No one in their right mind thinks it is going to stop there. NRDC just published a report that 3% of Indias wasteland would be enough to power all of India including transportation. Does anyone seriously still doubt we won’t cover 3% of wasteland with panels. I have full faith in the Indian ability to exploit this cheap power ….

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7571
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 12 Jul 2017 03:13

Continuing on….

Even now people are deer in head light in deep denial on what cheap solar power is going to do to the other power producers. Keep in mind that in 10 years all these solar farms are going to be fully capital cost depreciated. So then they can sell power 10 paise/kw and still make a ton of money for the next 20-30 years. Maintenance costs are less than 5 paise/kw for solar. So imagine a manufacturer who turns on his machines only while the sun shines, his power cost is so low that he can crush the competition. Same thing is going to happen to all the other power producers. Indians are plenty innovative and when power is so cheap they will find a way to tap it to the exclusion of everything else. Solar and wind are predictable power sources, the sun always rises and the wind always blows somewhere.

I always come back to the analogy of agriculture. Back in the day when the first hybrid seeds were rolled out all manner of opposition rose up to stop it. It would not be sustainable, the seeds will lack nutrition, too much fertilizer, etc. My Grandpa showed me a simple calculation that showed that Hybrid rice would cost 10 paise, similar to Rs 2 today, while traditional 8 month rice was closer to 40 paise or about Rs 8 today. In the end it did not matter that Hybrid rice needs irrigation or fertilizer or pesticide, the numbers meant that all the traditional farmers went out of business. All of them. Most of the unirrigated tradition farmland ended up abandoned and rice cultivation retreated to irrigated delta’s mostly. Kerala today mostly does not grow rice for instance.

In my view the traditional power companies are hanging by a thread. As one report said they are one battery cost innovation away from extinction. Cost innovation mind you, not discovery type innovation. Not a good place to be…

amritk
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 96
Joined: 28 Dec 2004 22:45

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby amritk » 12 Jul 2017 11:00

Nice posts, Theo Saar. This is why it's so funny to see people railing about coal jobs in certain countries. There's nothing to save or create there.

JE Menon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6851
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby JE Menon » 12 Jul 2017 13:46

Fabulous posts TF. Thanks

Hari Seldon
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9144
Joined: 27 Jul 2009 12:47
Location: University of Trantor

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Hari Seldon » 12 Jul 2017 13:55

So why imagine we have missed the bus?

Why not embark on building a PV manufacturing industry and battery R&D from ground up now, with state support as required? Leapfrogging earlier gens ain't improbable, either. Unless it costs 100s of $billions, it is a doable task.

If the tech is indeed as critical as all that, how can 'the free world' allow dlagon to have a chokehold on manufactre and hence, supply? Just curious.

Rishirishi
BRFite
Posts: 985
Joined: 12 Mar 2005 02:30

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Rishirishi » 12 Jul 2017 22:36

Theo_Fidel wrote:Continuing on….

Even now people are deer in head light in deep denial on what cheap solar power is going to do to the other power producers. Keep in mind that in 10 years all these solar farms are going to be fully capital cost depreciated. So then they can sell power 10 paise/kw and still make a ton of money for the next 20-30 years. Maintenance costs are less than 5 paise/kw for solar. So imagine a manufacturer who turns on his machines only while the sun shines, his power cost is so low that he can crush the competition. Same thing is going to happen to all the other power producers. Indians are plenty innovative and when power is so cheap they will find a way to tap it to the exclusion of everything else. Solar and wind are predictable power sources, the sun always rises and the wind always blows somewhere.

I always come back to the analogy of agriculture. Back in the day when the first hybrid seeds were rolled out all manner of opposition rose up to stop it. It would not be sustainable, the seeds will lack nutrition, too much fertilizer, etc. My Grandpa showed me a simple calculation that showed that Hybrid rice would cost 10 paise, similar to Rs 2 today, while traditional 8 month rice was closer to 40 paise or about Rs 8 today. In the end it did not matter that Hybrid rice needs irrigation or fertilizer or pesticide, the numbers meant that all the traditional farmers went out of business. All of them. Most of the unirrigated tradition farmland ended up abandoned and rice cultivation retreated to irrigated delta’s mostly. Kerala today mostly does not grow rice for instance.

In my view the traditional power companies are hanging by a thread. As one report said they are one battery cost innovation away from extinction. Cost innovation mind you, not discovery type innovation. Not a good place to be…


I do agree with you. But the problem remains of load balance during the 24 hours period. Besides one would need a hell of a lot numbers of solar farms. This will take time. In the long run i am sure the renewables will replace fossile fuels. The question is how long will it take . I think it will take another 15 to 20 years.

BajKhedawal
BRFite
Posts: 1154
Joined: 07 Dec 2008 10:08
Location: Is it ethical? No! Is it Pakistani? Yes!

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby BajKhedawal » 13 Jul 2017 07:32

Is the following solar kit a good buy to take to India? (for personal use to keep laptop, DSLR, phone charged when on the go; and possibly affix via USB to and keep the front/backyard lights on during the night), Thanks.

https://www.voltaicsystems.com/arc20w-kit

Size and Weight

Solar Panel Open: 33.9 x 10 x 0.1 in (86 x 25.5 x 0.3cm)
Solar Panel Folded: 7.5 x 10 x 0.8 in (19 x 25.5 x 2 cm)
Battery: 7.3 x 5 x 0.6 in (18.5 x 12.5 x 1.6 cm)
3.25 pounds (1.5 kg) including battery and solar panels

Solar Panel Output

Monocrystalline cells - 19% efficient
Open Circuit Voltage: 20.0V
Peak Voltage: 18V
Peak Current: 1.1A
Peak Power: 19.8 Watts

Solar Panel Construction

ETFE coating
2mm substrate

V72 Laptop Battery

Capacity: 19,800 mAh / 73 Watt Hours
Output: 5V/2A USB, and 12V/4A, 16V/3.5A, 19V/3A
Input: 14-20V, 1.2A
Battery Type: Li-Polymer
Protection: Short Circuit, Over Charge, Over Discharge, Over Current, Over Temperature
Image
Image

amritk
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 96
Joined: 28 Dec 2004 22:45

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby amritk » 13 Jul 2017 10:22

Hari Seldon,

It's a commodity business requiring very large scale. Some parts are quite technology and capital intensive. Can you believe a piece of silicon that has surface purity 10x better than what's used to make the latest Intel chips is sold for a price that's next to nothing. Take a look at the supply chain slide towards the end of this link. What piece should we tackle? That slide does not even talk about the equipment side of things.

http://homework.uoregon.edu/pub/class/350/supply.html

India already does some solar modules and of course, systems. Yes it will take on the order of $100 billion to have a real impact at this stage. China invested $100b into clean energy in just 2016 alone:
https://www.bnef.com/dataview/clean-energy-investment/index.html

Although there are two different things, manufacturing and solar generation projects, it gives you an idea of the scale.

JE Menon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6851
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby JE Menon » 13 Jul 2017 19:42

BajKhedewal,

I spent a lot of time without access to electricity in the last few years (in Africa). My trusty companion in this period was the "Goalzero" package.. Lovely stuff (can stick the solar panel on the top of an SUV (attach it), with the wire coming in through a window to charge the battery, and directly charge laptop (with three pin plug), and four USB devices at the same time. Tough as well, took a lot of beating in the bush, dust, long distance shipping in cartons by sea, you name it. The panels are sensitive to just about any light (even a vacuum bulb from a mujahid's ass might work).

http://www.goalzero.com/p/492/goal-zero ... -panel-kit

I've had it now for about 3-4 years, works like a bomb!

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7571
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 14 Jul 2017 00:40

Thx amit, jem,
-------------

Rishirishi wrote:I do agree with you. But the problem remains of load balance during the 24 hours period. Besides one would need a hell of a lot numbers of solar farms. This will take time. In the long run i am sure the renewables will replace fossile fuels. The question is how long will it take . I think it will take another 15 to 20 years.


Many years ago I did the land area calc for Ramay on BRF and the it worked out to about 1/10th the area of Ramanthapuram district to feed the entire of TN future power needs. Recently Adani did about 2,500 acres for a 600 MW plant in Ramanathapuram in 8 months flats. In terms of actual work it is not dissimilar to work needed to plant a coconut plantation these days. Even the posthole diggers looked the same! In some ways it is actually simpler.

WRT to storage issueIts not that difficult to do the math.

Right now Global Li-Ion manufacturing capacity is ~ 5,000 MW/year. Already cell level costs are approaching 15 cents/watt with all in battery cost as 25 cents/watt. Each time the battery capacity doubles cost drops 20% or so. Right now about 250,000MW of Li-Ion battery capacity is coming online around the world. This is about 6 doublings. So Battery all in cost should drop to ~ 5 cents a watt by full build out. About $50/kw all in. About $30/kw cell cost. At mass wholesale. The caveat is that this capacity is not online yet so this could possibly get derailed.

If you want 1000 MW of 24/7 diurnal power you install 4,000 MW of Solar @ 2 cents/ kw. You install a 4000 MW Battery(Assume 30% efficiency loss) for - 4,000,000kw x $50 = total battery cost of $200 Million. Cost of solar utility scale in 2030 India ~ 40 cents/w ~ $400/kw, down from 65 cents/w at present. So 4,000MW solar is 4,000,000 kw x $400 = $1,600,000. Total all in, installed cost. ~$1.8 Billion or ~ Rs12,000 Crore.

So Calculating IRR ultimate potential.

Capital cost - Rs 12,000 crore.
Debt to equity 75/25
12 year loan.
Interest rate 8%
Tariff - 4 cents $/kw fixed.
LCOE over 25 years(after inflation 4%) - 2.5 cents/kw.
Load factor 90% - ~ 8,000 hours.
Annual income ~ 8,000hrs/1000 MW = 8 Million MW.
Total topline income = 8,000,000 x $40 = $320 Million/year ~ Rs 2,000 crore
Maintenance, insurance, misc, etc - 1%/py - ~ $20 Million. ~ Rs 120 crore
Total EBITA ~ $300 Million ~ Rs1,800 Crore.
Project IRR = 19
Equity IRR = 37.5

Astonishing isn't it. Folks are in deep deep denial of what no fuel cost, zero marginal cost of production means long term. There is a reason the utilities are in such a titter...

BTW I was talking to a banker who has some awareness of the issues and he told me the default rate of solar projects is less than 1/10th of 1% and there is stiff competition from banks to get such quality assets on to their books, meaning low interest rates.

BajKhedawal
BRFite
Posts: 1154
Joined: 07 Dec 2008 10:08
Location: Is it ethical? No! Is it Pakistani? Yes!

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby BajKhedawal » 14 Jul 2017 06:06

Thanks JEM, turns out the voltiac wont work for my laptop which draws 9.23 amps of current at 19 volts, almost 200 watts. The maximum voltiac battery can supply is 3 A at 19V, barely 60 watts.

I did look at goalzero earlier, and now they seem to have a 220v kit which I suppose will work in India. Am hoping its a user replaceable battery in there.

Hari Seldon
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9144
Joined: 27 Jul 2009 12:47
Location: University of Trantor

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Hari Seldon » 14 Jul 2017 06:25

Thanks, amritk

amritk
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 96
Joined: 28 Dec 2004 22:45

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby amritk » 15 Jul 2017 04:09

Theo saar, your point that solar electricity, even with battery, will be cheap is taken. Request you to please fix/clarify units (especially energy vs power) for new readers. Also, we will need roughly 18,000 MWh of battery capacity (not 4,000 MWh) to support 24/7 operation. If I understood your logic correctly.

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7571
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 15 Jul 2017 10:40

Point taken amit though the post was more for rishi than general readers...
I have cleaned up a bit but please be advised YMMV, this is back of envelope, etc...
Also cleaned up the watt vs watt hour

-------------

The NREL has said that 3 hours of load shift is adequate for 90% PLF, so I bumped it up a bit to 4,000 MW and called it good. 18,000MW is excessive IMO, which is closer to the old school base load for 100% renewable. At 50% renewable 3 hour peak shift is adequate.

In any case I will run the IRR number for 18 hours of Li Ion.

-------------


Battery all in cost $50/kwhr all in. YMMV, etc.

If you want 1000 MW baseload of 24/7 diurnal power you install 4,000 MW of Solar @ 2 cents/ kw. You install a 18,000 MWhr Battery(Assume 30% efficiency loss) for - 18,000,000 kwhr x $50 = total battery cost of $900 Million. Cost of solar utility scale in 2030 India ~ 40 cents/w ~ $400/kw, down from 65 cents/w at present. So 4,000MW solar is 4,000,000 kw x $400 = $1,600,000. Total all in, installed cost. ~$2.5 Billion or ~ Rs16,000 Crore.

So Calculating IRR ultimate potential.

Capital cost - Rs 16,000 crore.
Debt to equity 75/25
12 year loan.
Interest rate 8%
Tariff - 4 cents $/kwhr fixed.
LCOE over 25 years(after inflation 4%) - 5.5 cents/kwhr.
Load factor 90% - ~ 8,000 hours.
Annual income ~ 8,000hrs/1000 MW = 8 Million MWhr.
Total topline income = 8,000,000 x $40 = $320 Million/year ~ Rs 2,000 crore
Maintenance, insurance, misc, etc - 1%/py - ~ $20 Million. ~ Rs 120 crore
Total EBITA ~ $300 Million ~ Rs1,800 Crore.
Project IRR = 17
Equity IRR = 22

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 902
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Gyan » 15 Jul 2017 11:08

While Renewables are getting cheaper but India's Salvation lies in Thermal Solar with molten salt storage as it would release us from PV/Battery imports. Major 24/7 solar thermal projects in USA have been set up at a cost of US$ 10 million per megawatt. The next round in Chile which is being set up will supposedly lower this cost in half. China is also getting into this in a big way.

For Solar, there is no project which has been actually set up that has achieved a cost of US$ 1.5 million per megawatt for PV+ battery for 24/7.

Theo's projections have too many favourable assumptions for Solar. The world is going in that direction but we have to see what actual cost is being achieved for tenders issued today. Google Chile and Solar, its gives the latest & bestest :D

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7571
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 15 Jul 2017 22:24

Gyan wrote:For Solar, there is no project which has been actually set up that has achieved a cost of US$ 1.5 million per megawatt for PV+ battery for 24/7.


Correct. There is still a chance some other technology can come in a scoop the prize.

CSP does have a chance, 9.5 cents/kwhr in Dubai without storage is a credible number.
But have you done an ultimate possible cost number? If that number can't beat PV then it may not matter
I would be very curious if you can run the material costs and see how low they can go....

I have 2 concerns with CSP.
First the load factor is not improving, esp. with improving scale. It is stuck at about 5% right now. This means they need 3-4 time the land as PV right now.
Second the technology is not standardized. Atleast not like PV. Esp. CSi PV. Every project so far uses it own proprietary design and equipment. Without standardization there is no way for the global commodity machine to drive down the cost.

Gyan wrote:Theo's projections have too many favourable assumptions for Solar.


Gyan sir, we will have to see. So far the numbers have been ahead of my projections.
My own view is that these numbers are very conservative, based on the latest published projections to 2030.
Looking back at my material cost numbers, these numbers can easily be beaten, quite soundly, I might add.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 902
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Gyan » 15 Jul 2017 23:13

Theo, I want solar to succeed so that Arabs go back to carrying Indians on their backs. But hard facts have to be seen. If I issue a tender "today" then PV+Battery for 24 hours supply is US$ 10 million per MW. Though i feel that CSP+ molten salt will start falling soon and offshore wind is a dark horse. Have a look at recent Chile 24/7 solar tenders. You may get more solid material for your arguments.

srin
BRFite
Posts: 1377
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:13

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby srin » 16 Jul 2017 07:44

Do we expect solar to provide 24/7 power ? Isn't demand during the day much higher (due to commercial activities) than during the night ?

nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 728
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby nandakumar » 17 Jul 2017 08:43

From Financial Times. Not very bullish on battery technology.
People have lost their faith in the presidency, quantitative easing, the social value of Twitter, and even the decline of France. Yet they still have a childlike belief in the electric battery industry.

Americans buy Tesla stock, with or without earnings or tax subsidies. China and Europe make powerful commitments to zero-emissions electric vehicles. California and Australia jostle to “lead” in using battery storage for grid reliability. Korean chaebol take on huge, lossmaking contracts to supply batteries for automakers.

This ideology seems immune to fires in mobile phones, fading laptops, or collapsing prices for second-hand electric cars. “All these problems could be solved,” the after-dinner philosophers intone, “with some breakthroughs in battery technology.”

vina
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6018
Joined: 11 May 2005 06:56
Location: Doing Nijikaran, Udharikaran and Baazarikaran to Commies and Assorted Leftists

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby vina » 17 Jul 2017 10:15

nandakumar wrote: electric battery industry

Yes. Storage and specifically Battery is THE problem. There is no easy solution to that. It is a fundamental "physics" problem and there is really no "breakthrough" in sight. The battery density is not enough today and it simply today and is nowhere cheap enough to be able to store energy.

While wind/solar etc will displace a lot of the generating capacity of baseload coal, you will need power plants to be able to come up quickly online to make up for tail off in solar/wind & other renewables. The only two things that do it now are a) Gas and b) Hydel. Remaining stuff are good for "base load" (i.e. nuke and coal) , which is where wind and solar are making big inroads.

Even a damn laptop LiOn battery needs replacement after a couple of 100 cycles. Same with car batteries. I would think same with large storage batteries of LiOn (the hysteresis and capacity degradation are well known high school physics stuff). And the costs are not trivial. That needs to be fixed if we can finally say good bye to fossil fuels (gas and coal).

nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 728
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby nandakumar » 17 Jul 2017 10:17

Couldn't post the full link as there were limitations on my hand phone. Here is some more.
Batteries, though, are not atomic bombs, integrated circuits, or penicillin. With a great deal of effort on the part of engineers, you get progress, not breakthroughs. That progress will not come at a pace that can change the reality that fossil fuels store a great deal more energy in a smaller space at a low cost, at least not within the next decade.

It is tempting to think that the performance of batteries can improve as quickly as that of the microelectronics, software, and display screens they power. As a battery engineer friend of mine says, though, “batteries are a smokestack industry”.

Mind you, they are a smokestack industry that is growing pretty fast, thanks in part to the public policy commitments made to the electric vehicle industry, particularly in China. According to Christophe Pillot, of Avicenne Energy in Paris, global lithium ion battery demand for vehicles will grow from $15bn in 2016 to $28bn in 2020, and $38bn in 2025. Even so, Mr Pillot projects that plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and electric vehicles will have less than a 2 per cent share of the global market by 2020.

Yet the performance of those EV batteries will, at best, grow at a much slower rate than their sales. Mr Pillot, whose forecasts have proven over time to be more accurate than those of industry evangelists, says: “This is not like semiconductors, it is chemistry, and improvements take a very long time. Looking at the past record, we can expect performance improvements of 5 per cent a year, not really more. And it is always a question of balance of lifetime, energy, and power. If you charge very fast, the lifetime will be very poor.”

Of course there will be new battery materials, and improvements in old materials. However, based on the industry’s record, it takes between 10 and 20 years to commercialise a new material. And the electrochemistry of the component for one new material has to be tested against that of the other components.

The prospective performance of new electronic devices can be reliably projected with computer models. Not so batteries. George Blomgren, an American PhD in physical chemistry who has been working on batteries for nearly 30 years, says devising models for batteries “is still a work in progress”. “In electronics you have a fixed lattice with electrons and holes, so it’s relatively easy. With batteries there are so many parts, and so much electrochemistry going on in three dimensions that putting it together in one model has eluded the field up to now.”

nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 728
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby nandakumar » 17 Jul 2017 10:23

Rest of the article.
So as the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 battery fires proved, the rapid introduction of new battery designs is risky. As my battery engineer says: “Lithium ion batteries are so dangerous because they are so energetic. The way you make them more safe is by reducing their propensity to react, which means less performance and a long development and testing time.”

And, from the investors’ point of view, the gross margins are generally less than 10 per cent of revenues, which is not great compared to other “technology” industries. Large Japanese and Korean consumer electronics manufacturers were prepared to accept those thin profits as the cost of maintaining or building market share for their devices. American and European battery manufacturers stuck to specialised defence, space, and industrial applications.

Even now, as European carmakers are being forced away from their beloved diesel engine designs, they have chosen to procure battery cells from either Japanese or Korean manufacturers. That is an interesting implicit statement by a sophisticated group of industrialists. They are not betting their own development money on this generation of battery technology.

What if the automakers are right in the end, and we are pushing too fast for electric vehicle adoption? Then the billions spent trying for economies of scale using the technology visible today will be sitting as a sunk cost. I think of Baldwin Locomotive Works.

Baldwin’s vast Eddystone plant near Philadelphia was the Gigafactory of steam locomotives. It was the most efficient such plant in the world, which, along with impressive intellectual property and a skilled workforce, gave Baldwin market dominance as late as the early 1940s. But by 1949 there was no demand for steam locomotives. The Eddystone plant was shut down in 1956.

Baldwin was the best-in-class producer of an obsolete technology. The promoters of batteries for cars and the electric grid should keep its fate in mind.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 902
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Gyan » 17 Jul 2017 18:06

Can anyone comment on Stanford Aluminium Ion Battery for Bulk storage use etc.? Will it be a major development?

guru.shetty
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 38
Joined: 28 Oct 2016 07:29

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby guru.shetty » 17 Jul 2017 18:50

Things we know from the current generation electric cars.

1. The maximum range at good performance for a large electric sedan is 330 miles. Most large sedans that run petrol engines give similar range.

2. Petrol cars can be refilled in 10 minutes. Electric cars need ~40 minutes.

3. Electric cars can start every day with a full charge ( from charging at house) and only need to visit charging stations when you go more than 300 miles in a day. Petrol cars need visiting petrol bunks every week.

4. Practical electric sedans (not luxury ones) cost atleast $37k. Next month this price goes down to $35k. Except for US market where average cost of a car is $33k, this is expensive everywhere else in the world. These cars have a range limitation of 250 miles which is poorer than similar sized petrol cars.

5. At similar costs, electric cars have much better acceleration than petrol engines.

6. Electric cars are not good in sustaining very high speeds for a long duration.

7. Electric cars suck when you have to use the car heater but do decently well with AC.

8. Well made battery packs have lasted beyond 100,000 miles with little degradation. It looks like they will last 200,000 miles easy. Nissan leaf is the only car which has shown heavy battery degradation as it has poor thermal management.

9. Used electric car battery have a market in energy storage.

10. Electric cars have considerably less fire hazards than petrol cars for similar miles driven.

11. With very less moving parts, electric cars are supposed to have less maintenance burden. The parts are still first generation and are claimed to only get better.

Some claims:

Battery pack costs need to drop by half from this year's installed prices to be able to make practical electric cars at $22k. Based on analyst projections, this happens in 2022.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 902
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Gyan » 17 Jul 2017 20:46

This article gives an idea of current costs. As per my calculation the cost of setting up 24/7 thermal solar plant is US$ 8 million per megawatt. I expect it to fall to US$ 5 million by the time technology is standardised by China as it completes it own 1000 MW thermal solar initiative.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03 ... -in-chile/

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7571
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 17 Jul 2017 22:27

Great comments.

Key take away, Li-Ion is not going to get a lot better, no great break troughs are coming.
Conclusion, lets get on with installing it in 100,000mwhr chunks then …. ..which is what the powers to be seem to have decided as well.

WRT Li-Ion, no one is really happy with it. If something else came along, everyone would be thrilled. But its been 30 years now and nothing has come along. People are tired of waiting. One can always go back to burning coal, which technically is a form of battery, just once through. Re-Charge not possible….

- Still not a clue why people worry so much about battery degradation. As long as you can make money who cares. With proper thermal management Li-Ion degradation is well managed. There are 100,000+ cars on the streets with years and years on them in the worst conditions possible and failures have been very few and infrequent for such an immature technology. Laptop battery is fundamentally different animal. The 3000-5000 cycle thing is misunderstood. Battery doesn’t die, 80% of capacity remains. Just build another 20% in 10 years time and you are good to go another 10 years. Some mix of replacement/recycle can be thrown in.
- It is the only technology so far than can get caught up in the global commodity manufacturing industry. Can’t stress how important this is.
- Material costs are very low, ultimate was ~ $12/kwhr. Last time I did the calc. Real potential exists for the global manufacturing industry to crush the production costs.
- Industry has standardized on the 18650 or similar format. Prismatic batteries have fallen away.
- The same arguments were/are leveled against solar PV. Some new technology will come along, break through needed, etc. And here we are…
- Not a clue why India is arguing this. We don’t really have any oil so what is the point of saying fossil fuels have more energy. We don’t have any.

I’m still a big fan of Hydel pumped storage. India has the natural advantage of the western Ghats. 2000-3000 feet of drop over 20 km. I once calculated that pumping the entire 2 MAF of Koyna dam up and down every day would be enough to power most of India. Pure thought experiment, you would never do that. But an idea of the potential.

I’m a bigger fan of simplicity and no moving parts however. When Li-Ion battery hits $50/kwhr all in, it will be tough to compete with it. With ~ 500 cycles annually, the costs would approach 1.5 cents per kw ~ Rs 1. Combined with 2 cents/kwhr ultimate price of PV solar. Toss in a bunch of wind. We should be good to 80% of energy demand. The last 20% I have no clue. Maybe some version of CSP if they can reduce costs to under 5 cents/kwhr may be feasible. I suspect our grandchildren will have to grapple with that one. Getting to 80% will be enough of a challenge for our generation, so our kids have some options when it’s their turn.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 902
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Gyan » 17 Jul 2017 23:00

Theo you need to put in cost of land, maintenance, repair, water. Not to forget interest & depreciation apart from insurance, labour costs etc. Batteries have been around for 120+ years and average annual improvement has been 2-4% per annum only.

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7571
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 17 Jul 2017 23:16

Gyan wrote:This article gives an idea of current costs. As per my calculation the cost of setting up 24/7 thermal solar plant is US$ 8 million per megawatt. I expect it to fall to US$ 5 million by the time technology is standardised by China as it completes it own 1000 MW thermal solar initiative.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03 ... -in-chile/



Gyan thx for that article... ...I poured over the numbers over lunch...

I ran some potential IRR's for Crescent Dunes Solar using your $5 per watt w/ storage long term cost.
For a 1000 MW facility.

Total cost $5 Billion ~ Rs 30,000 crore.
Debt/equity = 75/25
Interest rate - 8%
LCOE Tariff = 8 cents/ kwhr ~ Rs 4.80
Total production is ~ 8,000,0000 mwhr/yr.
Topline income ~ $ 650 million ~ Rs 4,000 crore.

Project IRR ~ 12
Equity IRR ~ 16

Not Bad.... ...definitely should find a place in the mix...
I still think due to sheer scale, Li Ion can go much lower.

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7571
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 17 Jul 2017 23:22

Gyan wrote:Theo you need to put in cost of land, maintenance, repair, water. Not to forget interest & depreciation apart from insurance, labour costs etc. Batteries have been around for 120+ years and average annual improvement has been 2-4% per annum only.


Hi Gyan,

The 65 cents per watt cost is all in, including soft costs, including land.
Maintenance/Insurance/Tax/etc, is all included in the IRR spreadsheet.
For instance Maintenance and insurance are 1% of capital cost and included in the LCOE tariff rate. Escalation and degradation also included.

Rishirishi
BRFite
Posts: 985
Joined: 12 Mar 2005 02:30

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Rishirishi » 21 Jul 2017 18:21

Theo_Fidel wrote:
Gyan wrote:This article gives an idea of current costs. As per my calculation the cost of setting up 24/7 thermal solar plant is US$ 8 million per megawatt. I expect it to fall to US$ 5 million by the time technology is standardised by China as it completes it own 1000 MW thermal solar initiative.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03 ... -in-chile/



Gyan thx for that article... ...I poured over the numbers over lunch...

I ran some potential IRR's for Crescent Dunes Solar using your $5 per watt w/ storage long term cost.
For a 1000 MW facility.

Total cost $5 Billion ~ Rs 30,000 crore.
Debt/equity = 75/25
Interest rate - 8%
LCOE Tariff = 8 cents/ kwhr ~ Rs 4.80
Total production is ~ 8,000,0000 mwhr/yr.
Topline income ~ $ 650 million ~ Rs 4,000 crore.

Project IRR ~ 12
Equity IRR ~ 16

Not Bad.... ...definitely should find a place in the mix...
I still think due to sheer scale, Li Ion can go much lower.



The downtime would be arround 12 hours per day. Hence the total required would be 12 000 MWh. And the investment will be 60 billion dollars. The price of Rs 4,80 is correct. Battery storage is econmically viable, but would require capital on a unprecedented scale.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 902
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Gyan » 23 Jul 2017 10:45

The study of actual tenders awarded in Morocco and UAE shows fall of Solar CSP with storage from US cents 24 to 9.45 per kWh. Coupled with daytime PV and (storage CSP solar), the present cost is around US cent 8 per kWh for Dubai to get 24/7 solar power. This is confirmed from tendering in Chile also where it falls to US cent 6.5. PV plus battery may be lower still but I am looking at from India point of view where CSP makes us import independent.


Return to “Technology & Economic Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: nash, suryag and 8 guests