Solar energy in India

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Mort Walker
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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 23 Jul 2020 00:11

KL Dubey wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:The definition of subsidies from CEEW seems very specious. It seems they have another agenda which is to inhibit India's development by forcing expensive sources of energy.


This line of argument is about 20 years old/too late now. I don't see anywhere trying to force expensive energy sources. GOI is already doing pretty much everything in the recommendations from CEEW.

The subsidy definitions are taken from IISD, which lays it out in great detail here (including graphic breakdowns of how much by individual mechanisms): https://www.iisd.org/gsi/india-energy-transition-2020-data/


The mechanisms are as I was saying. Direct price support has declined from $23 billion to $890 million, so I don't see how you can claim the GoI is subsidising oil and gas? The definition used by CEEW and IISD is erroneous to propagate an agenda of expensive energy that will inhibit growth. You've bought into the hype without looking at the numbers. I suppose you think Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (https://www.pmuy.gov.in) is a bad thing to promote the use of cooking gas?

Fortunately this GoI at the working level has smarter people than any of us and what politicians make as pronouncements. It is the reason you don't see PV solar power becoming more than what it is until PVs are made in India and the ability to use it for peak power load.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 23 Jul 2020 00:22

Mort Walker wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
This line of argument is about 20 years old/too late now. I don't see anywhere trying to force expensive energy sources. GOI is already doing pretty much everything in the recommendations from CEEW.

The subsidy definitions are taken from IISD, which lays it out in great detail here (including graphic breakdowns of how much by individual mechanisms): https://www.iisd.org/gsi/india-energy-transition-2020-data/


The mechanisms are as I was saying. Direct price support has declined from $23 billion to $890 million, so I don't see how you can claim the GoI is subsidising oil and gas? The definition used by CEEW and IISD is erroneous to propagate an agenda of expensive energy that will inhibit growth. You've bought into the hype without looking at the numbers. I suppose you think Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (https://www.pmuy.gov.in) is a bad thing to promote the use of cooking gas?

Fortunately this GoI at the working level has smarter people than any of us and what politicians make as pronouncements. It is the reason you don't see PV solar power becoming more than what it is until PVs are made in India and the ability to use it for peak power load.


I understand the numbers and the arguments. No point in arguing with you on this, since you are more interested in "showing your knowledge" on off-topic discussions. All the information you need is in the links posted and they are not erroneous.

This is the solar energy thread, and the GOI has undoubtedly hit the accelerator on that. All the links needed to keep track of the awarded projects etc, have been provided. Don't waste people's time raking up discussions on CO2, oil and gas, ujjwala, etc here. An off-topic post or two is OK but this is getting more like trolling.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 23 Jul 2020 00:27

^^^I don't think you understand the numbers and instead make off-topic claims of "oil and gas heavily subsidized". The links are indeed erroneous to claim anything more than direct price support as subsidies. The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has all the numbers - look through there and you will find much of your answers.

To claim fuel production from CSP as "off-topic" or "$h!t-eating" is disingenuous on your part.
Last edited by Mort Walker on 23 Jul 2020 00:32, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 23 Jul 2020 00:31

Mort Walker wrote:^^^I don't think you understand the numbers and instead make off-topic claims of "oil and gas heavily subsidized". The links are indeed erroneous to claim anything more than direct price support as subsidies.


Duh....shame on me in getting into this troll bait, but here's my final answer. The CEEW report spells it out clearly. O&G prices have gone down the tube so the subsidy is also less at the moment. But these prices are volatile, supplies are not secure, and increases coal and O&G are not in line with the transition to cleaner energy and climate mitigation. That's the big picture. Renewables are ramping up and there is no point in denying it. PM Modi will also take measures to increase the citizens' comfort and convenience as needed, so certainly LPG scheme is needed at the moment.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 23 Jul 2020 00:38

^^^NO THE CEEW REPORT IS FALSE. Cheap power is the need for industrial growth. Climate mitigation will happen only when industry and the public use more power from RES, NG and nuclear, as opposed to only one source. RES has not delivered enough power as claimed and as the western coal fields have increased production, expensive coal imports will decline, but coal power will increase between now and the next few years before declining again at the end of this decade.

Claiming "off-topic" discussion is this instance is one where one you can't defend an erroneous position.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 23 Jul 2020 00:47

Mort Walker wrote:^^^NO THE CEEW REPORT IS FALSE. Cheap power is the need for industrial growth. Climate mitigation will happen only when industry and the public use more power from RES, NG and nuclear, as opposed to only one source. RES has not delivered enough power as claimed and as the western coal fields have increased production, expensive coal imports will decline, but coal power will increase between now and the next few years before declining again at the end of this decade.

Claiming "off-topic" discussion is this instance is one where one you can't defend an erroneous position.


Fine, then let CEEW know if you think they are spreading fake information. For now, a lot of people are using their report. They have Facebook, Twitter, and an email contact address. I'd love to see your discussion with them. Keep me updated.

Nobody said we will use only one energy source. Read the links I posted some weeks ago. All you've done here is to start from point A and return to point A by a circuitous route that lets you vent your other pet issues and show your knowledge. Again, simple English - the only exciting thing here is the rapidly rising trajectory of renewables - particularly solar - in India and what it means long-term.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 23 Jul 2020 01:25

Thanks. Sure I'll email them after you email Zaid Hamid to reconvert after a dip in the Ganga at Benares. We know what their answers are going to be when they have an ulterior agenda.

I don't think you or very many people aside from the CEA understand - including politicians who make statements. Getting power on the grid and balancing loads is a complex process. When you have PV or wind which varies significantly in output makes it more complicated for planning. The rising trajectory of solar PVs comes from the low initial cost thanks to the Chinese. That trajectory will be upward, but slower once tariffs are rationalized with domestic production. Most power plants, regardless of fuel source, installed in India have been sold on lower than actual tariffs. If looking at a energy source in its entirety is in your opinion a pet issue, then I can't help you and you can continue the mental masturbation.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby banrjeer » 23 Jul 2020 02:17

https://www.energy-storage.news/blogs/b ... ry-storage
LCOE of batteries reducing, India is a late adopter and lead acid still rules the market.

I work with a start up that builds Solar trackers. We are looking at distributed scale installations.
One of the challenges is competition from subsidy schemes that are based on name plate capacity and not on total generation or cost of energy.

Tracker adoption in India is slow as well

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 23 Jul 2020 02:42

^^^Trackers are a good idea. Given the latitude of India, there is plenty of sun throughout the year, so I guess they've decided to forgo trackers as costs would go up and add maintenance. The Rewa facility is near 24 degrees north. If you did CSP, then trackers are needed to maintain high temperatures.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 23 Jul 2020 03:02

Mort Walker wrote:Thanks. Sure I'll email them after you email Zaid Hamid to reconvert after a dip in the Ganga at Benares. We know what their answers are going to be when they have an ulterior agenda.


Nonsense. The CEEW report is well researched and compiled with open data sources. I take it seriously, but if you allege publicly that their "report is false" then yeah, it would be useful for you to tell them what is false. I don't know what is the other stuff you mention above. As far as our discussion

Again, I snipped your next paragraph because it's the same "show all my knowledge" thing. You say nothing important or informative beyond well-known generalities about solar power deployment.

I've already told you in a previous post that the key is to maintain the momentum by indigenizing or working with non-Chinese suppliers. PV is commodity manufacturing, it's not super-duper technology. The challenge and opportunity is in developing this industry in India rather than respond by committing to more coal and gas. Sure, covering a temporary gap is fine but that is not what I am talking about.

Again, its blindingly obvious there will be a temporary slowdown (and partially because energy demand itself has fallen). The difference is in attitude and response to a challenge. This is in fact the best time to push renewables further forward and firmly put fossil energy on a "legacy path".

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 23 Jul 2020 03:53

Again, its blindingly obvious there will be a temporary slowdown (and partially because energy demand itself has fallen). The difference is in attitude and response to a challenge. This is in fact the best time to push renewables further forward and firmly put fossil energy on a "legacy path".


That statement indicates you don't understand why we use fossil energy. It is the cheapest energy-to-weight/volume source, consistent output power, and easily transportable. We convert it to heat, go through a Rankine cycle, generate electricity and put it on the grid. Pushing renewables to meet a social change agenda doesn't make sense and keeps India backward. RES makes sense where it can economically be used. As I said, the CEA and the lower level GoI personnel are far smarter than any of us here.

Go to the CEA reports and you will see that power in the last few years, even before the economic slowdown of 2019, has a small deficit or surplus. The problem is that pricing is too high for both industry and consumers. Retail prices have to come down to an average of Rs. 4/unit if not lower. The DISCOMS are financially sick companies, who if forced to buy more power, because of "push renewables" will make them all bankrupt NPAs.

I've already told you in a previous post that the key is to maintain the momentum by indigenizing or working with non-Chinese suppliers. PV is commodity manufacturing, it's not super-duper technology.


BS. Commercial PVs are 15-20% efficient. Significant work is needed to get production PVs to near 50% and is well worth it rather than spend precious time, talent and money on convoluted storage systems.

The irony here is that with PVs and storage, solar power becomes expensive per unit, so more solar capacity will be added without storage. So during the night, twilight, and dusk hours, coal will have to pick up the demand because that is where most of electric production capacity is. Coal production within India is picking back up and CIL (Coal India Limited) is determined to keep prices competitive.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 23 Jul 2020 06:22

Back to solar energy and its relation to India:

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/05/07/coronavirus-lockdown-speeds-indias-shift-coal-solar-power/

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/04/30/renewables-resilient-covid-19-lockdown-measures-says-iea/

The fossil thermal power sector really needs to adjust to becoming a supporting factor in the electricity mix before it is ready for complete retirement:

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/energy-speak/continued-decline-in-indian-thermal-capacity-additions/3515

I can't think of anyone but NaMo sarkar to manage this transition well.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 23 Jul 2020 07:40

KL Dubey wrote:Back to solar energy and its relation to India:
<snip>


Absolutely agree. Since this is the best time to transition to "retirement" of thermal, June 2020 is a good example.

June 2020 Thermal Energy Generated: 77,509.52 Gigawatt-Hours
http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/g ... opm_01.pdf

June 2020 Solar Energy Generated: 4,373.17 Gigawatt-Hours
http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/r ... ate-06.pdf
Note: 1 Unit = 1 Kilowatt-Hour

June 2020 Total Electric Energy Produced: 99,541.47 GWH (conventional including hydro) + 13,364.26 GWH (RES) = 112,905.26 GWH
Percent of India's electric energy coming from solar = < 4%
Percent of India's electric energy coming from thermal = > 68%

June 2020 thermal, 69,510.77 GWH is from coal
http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/g ... opm_11.pdf
Percent of India's electric energy coming from coal = > 61%

In June, India gets about 14 hours of sunlight a day, therefore, 37 GW of installed solar capacity in one month should produce:
37 GW x 14 hours/day x 30 day = 15,540 GWH.
June 2020 combined solar program = > 28%
June 2020 combined thermal program = 77%

Reality is a cruel mistress. The NaMo government knows what it is doing and won't allow India to sit in the dark.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 23 Jul 2020 16:05

Mort Walker wrote:The NaMo government knows what it is doing and won't allow India to sit in the dark.


Pretty juvenile discussion at this point. I just said yesterday that any short-term measures will be taken care of as needed. This government will do what is takes. Nobody talked about the lights going off. Yet you keep pushing this koila/oil/gas drama, and that too in the wrong thread. Leave this thread alone unless you have something useful to contribute. Post in the power sector thread which is more general.

The direction of thermal power in India (as in most places in the world) is strongly downward. Because of this, there is excess capacity - which sometimes can be utilized to support unforeseen requirements/fluctuations in addition to taking quite a bit of the baseload. It's silly to turn around and show that as evidence for needing more thermal power. :lol: This is a totally wrong reading of the direction in which India is moving. Despite the fact that I told you about the recent push towards adding more PV+thermal hybrid capacity, you don't seem to understand (or don't want to).

As for your wild claims about needing 50% PV efficiency: the world does not work like this. Current PV is a fairly mature technology and a lot of money has been invested in R&D and deployment. When am energy technology becomes cheaper than the alternative, scalable, and reliable enough, then it will be deployed. Plus the impetus for decarbonized energy is an additional powerful motive. Sure, increases in efficiency and other advances will/should continue, but nobody is going to wait till PV reaches 50% efficiency for it to be deployed. Technological advances will be incorporated in the next generations of installations or retrofits of existing ones. PV is a modular technology amenable to retrofit.

I think you're mis-informed or at a very early stage of understanding about Energy deployment versus very early stage R&D.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 23 Jul 2020 16:29

My last post on this silly "solar versus coal" drama:

Electricity Generation history:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_India#Electricity_generation

Over the last ten years, renewables have been growing very rapidly. 2019 was the first year in which coal power started to turn downward.

Installed Capacity (particularly for utility power):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_India#Installed_capacity

Renewables have seen massive capacity additions.

It is also important to understand that we are on a time-bound trajectory to control CO2 emissions (Paris). This government has done an excellent job balancing our long-term clean energy plan, short-term considerations, and climate change requirements.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 23 Jul 2020 19:17

The electric energy deficit has come down in the last decade due to all energy sources increasing and not just solar. In various regions it is now under 3% and overall India is less than 1%.

India still not power-surplus nation; peak deficit at 0.8%, energy deficit at 0.6% in 2018-19

From the very link coming from the CEA and cited by Wikipedia, coal electric energy has increased in the last decade by from 612 TWH to nearly 1000 TWH. Imported coal will decline and coal production within India is ramping up. Why? Existing power plants continue to operate and form the bulk of electric energy for the country. The cost to replace these plants is high and only older ones will be decommissioned, the rest will not be replaced despite any calls from the Paris Agreement or any other climate change treaty.

Thermal energy has not declined and produces 2/3 of electric energy produced today. It will continue to do so even though more solar will be added.

Understanding the difference between adding nameplate power capacity and actual energy generated should not be lost, especially when we talk about solar energy. Solar power capacity represents 10% of installed power capacity today, but it generates less than 4% of electric energy.
The numbers do not lie and in another 2-3 years, after an economic recovery, there may not be an electric energy deficit to absorb more solar energy without storage solutions. The downside is that cost of solar energy per unit will increase.

Keep in mind, any energy source including solar is used to keep KWH energy rates low. International agreements must not dictate what India does for its development.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Amber G. » 24 Jul 2020 03:05

Interrupting big serious "technical discussions" (and type of calculation used previously to design thermo-nuclear-bombs and now future of solar energy policy ityadi :mrgreen: ) .. x-post from physics dhaga -

. Not only we can see Himalayas from Punjab .. Solar output in Delhi is 8% more. From MIT news:.
Covid-19 shutdown led to increased solar power output
- As the air cleared after lockdowns, solar installations in Delhi produced 8 percent more power, study shows.


As the Covid-19 shutdowns and stay-at-home orders brought much of the world’s travel and commerce to a standstill, people around the world started noticing clearer skies as a result of lower levels of air pollution. Now, researchers have been able to demonstrate that those clearer skies had a measurable impact on the output from solar photovoltaic panels, leading to a more than 8 percent increase in the power output from installations in Delhi.

While such an improved output was not unexpected, the researchers say this is the first study to demonstrate and quantify the impact of the reduced air pollution on solar output. The effect should apply to solar installations worldwide, but would normally be very difficult to measure against a background of natural variations in solar panel output caused by everything from clouds to dust on the panels. The extraordinary conditions triggered by the pandemic, with its sudden cessation of normal activities, combined with high-quality air-pollution data from one of the world’s smoggiest cities, afforded the opportunity to harness data from an unprecedented, unplanned natural experiment. <snip>

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Vayutuvan » 24 Jul 2020 04:22

KL Dubey wrote:Technological advances will be incorporated in the next generations of installations or retrofits of existing ones. PV is a modular technology amenable to retrofit.


How much of the embedded energy is being discarded when parts are discarded? What are the energy needs to recycle discarded parts/material? They have to be recycled or else you will end up filling the landfills with toxic non-degradable matter.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 24 Jul 2020 05:07

Vayutuvan wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:Technological advances will be incorporated in the next generations of installations or retrofits of existing ones. PV is a modular technology amenable to retrofit.


How much of the embedded energy is being discarded when parts are discarded? What are the energy needs to recycle discarded parts/material? They have to be recycled or else you will end up filling the landfills with toxic non-degradable matter.


This is not a problem since these are super-efficient solar panels compliant with the Paris Agreement and Greta Thunberg Treaty. Older PVs will be installed on the surface of surplus Airbus A380 wings and fuselage, since it has such large surface area, that you can fly round trip from BOM-LON or non-stop from BOM-JFK. Once back in India, the A380 will recharge overnight from the solar wind and can repeat the trip.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Vayutuvan » 24 Jul 2020 05:12

Mort Walker wrote:Once back in India, the A380 will recharge overnight from the solar wind and can repeat the trip.

:rotfl: OK. I am out of this thread before Sun san swoops in and bombs us to smithereens.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 24 Jul 2020 07:47

Vayutuvan wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:Technological advances will be incorporated in the next generations of installations or retrofits of existing ones. PV is a modular technology amenable to retrofit.


How much of the embedded energy is being discarded when parts are discarded? What are the energy needs to recycle discarded parts/material? They have to be recycled or else you will end up filling the landfills with toxic non-degradable matter.


You're talking about life cycle analysis (LCA) (from cradle to grave), in addition to the technoeconomic analysis (TEA). There are thousands of detailed publications on LCA of different modalities of solar power and their comparison to other energy sources. These are questions that people have researched and understood exhaustively for decades....

The exact answers depend a little on how the life cycle inventory is done, the type of materials in the PV units, country-specific factors, etc.

For cradle to grave energy use (your main question above), this is typically correlated with/proxied by cradle to grave greenhouse emissions resulting from the technology - including the processes used to gather the raw materials, manufacturing, transportation, installation, maintenance, recycling, disposal etc. In the US, NREL and ANL are two DOE national labs that carry out ongoing TEA and LCA of renewable energy systems and update/harmonize periodically. You can look at their voluminous case studies in detail if you like, most of them are publicly released and many form the basis for R&D funding solicitations over the years. There are many excellent journal publications as well, but these are mostly not open access.

Here's a resource suited for general readers:

https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/life-cycle-assessment.html

As expected, coal-based power is horrendous in comparison to almost any other type.

Image

You can also do LCAs for impacts on human health (including workers involved in the industry), a whole bunch of other emissions (NOx, SOx, heavy metals), ozone depletion, impacts on water quality, aquatic life, etc etc. Many LCA software calculate a basket of indicators. I have used ANL's GREET software (for transportation fuels and vehicles) extensively. I don't work in photovoltaics.

Examples here:

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/8/8/1396/pdf
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.7b03546

Summary: PV and other renewables certainly have some cradle-to-grave environmental impacts, but overall these are orders of magnitude lower than fossil power. It doesn't take genius to understand that coal comes out absolute worst by miles in every significant indicator. This is not "greenpeace" nuttery, just common sense backed up by very exhaustive and solid science.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 24 Jul 2020 10:42

KL Dubey wrote:<snip>


Very nice analysis. The data is harmonized for GHG emissions gCO2/KWH. There are three flaws here:

1. There is no analysis of solar PVs with storage systems such as batteries, hydro, or fuel cells.
2. Although this has been done on a per KWH energy basis, the energy produced by solar PVs is 3-4 times less than thermal, which requires a building out of significantly more solar PV capacity. The GHG emissions for solar PVs, for the equivalent amount of energy produced, would have to be multiplied by at least 3 times to be realistic. This would put emissions above natural gas and on par with coal.
3. Where solar PVs would have the biggest environmental impact over thermal would be in significantly less use of clean water. I did not see that in the NREL report, or perhaps it's there and I missed it.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Vayutuvan » 24 Jul 2020 10:42

@KLDubey ji, not "cradle to grave" but "cradle to cradle". Earth will run out of minerals, metals, and other elements sooner or later. if you can't recycle, you are done. where is the energy coming from to recycle?

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 24 Jul 2020 11:01

Vayutuvan wrote:@KLDubey ji, not "cradle to grave" but "cradle to cradle". Earth will run out of minerals, metals, and other elements sooner or later. if you can't recycle, you are done. where is the energy coming from to recycle?


Recycling consideration is mentioned in the report https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/57187.pdf but is still unclear. It appears NREL has done a faulty analysis to suit a political agenda of the Obama administration. The dates of analysis and references are all 6-8 years old. The main PI in the contact no longer works for the DoE and is with some think tank. I become highly suspicious of people when they talk about power and are not physicists or electrical engineers. In the past Idaho National Labs within the DoE has done better jobs of analysis for renewables. I had the chance to work with them about 8-9 years ago on some wind turbine issues.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 24 Jul 2020 17:24

Vayutuvan wrote:@KLDubey ji, not "cradle to grave" but "cradle to cradle". Earth will run out of minerals, metals, and other elements sooner or later. if you can't recycle, you are done. where is the energy coming from to recycle?


Yes, this is all basic stuff. This is very much included in many assessments using different models for both utility power and rooftop (off grid and grid connected) installations - otherwise it defeats the purpose. There are hundreds of studies, but not a lot of open access information. Obviously, for everything that is recycled a corresponding deduction in the front-end impact occurs.

The LCA also include storage systems and inverters etc. Everything is inventoried. Decarbonization using solar power certainly shifts recycling focus from carbon to minerals/metals etc. All said and done, for utility power there is a very clear advantage for solar energy.

Here is a very recent work that comprehensively evaluates LCAs for many different global scenarios, modeling methods, and a wide range of indicators. It's open access, so you can read the whole thing.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-13067-8

In summary, to quote:

The world is currently witnessing a dynamic and robust growth of wind and solar power, which is also expected to become the most important contributor towards near-term CO2 reduction efforts worldwide. Our results suggest that further relying predominantly on these new renewables in the transition towards a near-zero emissions power system also reduces most nonclimate environmental impacts on the system level compared to strategies that limit the contribution of wind and solar power largely in favor of greater CCS deployment.


This is a foregone conclusion that cannot be denied or covered up by randomly alleging "false information" in reports and organizations like some in the thread. This approach has no credibility and is not serious.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 24 Jul 2020 17:51

As a separate post from the above: a key difference exists in "recycling" considerations for fossil versus photovoltaics. In fossil, the main issue is the conversion of fossils to CO2 (gas) that is responsible for climate change, very expensive to capture, and horrendously expensive to convert to any reusable/valuable form on a scale that matches its generation.

In PV, its all about minerals and metals recycling. That carries its own set of challenges. Strategies for recycling these components have been around for a long time and will ramp up as needed with deployment intensifying.

There is no point in picking some random factor and using it to distract from the overall picture (e.g., "oh my god! lead! here are news reports about people dying from lead in solar batteries!") Every technology carries risks and hazards.

Again - a difference in attitude. India has the opportunity to develop its own solar energy infrastructure that includes recycling and reuse.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 24 Jul 2020 19:57

Solar energy is being done in India because of cost and not having to import fuel. Responsible climate change is a nicety after effect. It is not the driver of change. India is reaching the point of surplus energy in the next few years. Additional solar energy without storage will put the DISCOMs under further financial stress if they are forced to buy power for a political agenda.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 24 Jul 2020 20:11

^^I don't have time to enlighten you in detail on every basic issue. Suffice it to say that this is how the transition to renewable energy has worked, including in Europe. It's not a smooth downhill ride. Cost, fuel imports, national security, politics, environmental pressures are all interconnected. Even if the "political agenda forces Discoms to buy renewable power" for some time, that is fine. No discoms wilI go under, the economy will not crash, Modi will get re-elected in 2024, and continue the push toward 500 GW renewables. Life will go on, with the country emerging stronger and our environment cleaner.

Obviously this assumes there will be no sudden "about-turn" in policy and the sarkar keep taking steps to support the solar power sector needs. Over the last few years the sarkar has shown firm commitment to this course of action and with real results on the ground. A very different scenario compared with the difficulties encountered for nuclear power which was the only realistic low-carbon option 10 years ago.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 24 Jul 2020 20:29

^^^There isn't any enlightening going on when the numbers are clearly showing that solar energy is only effective for handling peak load during the day and not base load over a 24 hour period. Propagating a western agenda to slow India's development through more expensive energy is not going to happen. That 500 GW nameplate of renewables may happen by 2030, but thermal and nuclear will still make up 50% of actual energy produced.

The reduction of particulate emissions will happen from other sources, namely transportation and limiting polluting industrial emissions.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 24 Jul 2020 20:50

^^^This argument is boring simply because nobody is disputing it. India's renewable energy capacity today is about 35% of total and generation is about 21% of total. The target is 40+% generation by 2030. So, obviously, the other 50-60% will be fossil in 2030. Who is disputing this ? Like I said, most of your posts are "from point A ---> point A by circuitous route to show all your knowledge".

However, the bigger picture is that fossil energy will be certainly moved to a supporting/legacy role and renewables will gradually take over baseload (maybe nuclear will join if it finally takes off). What you don't want to understand/accept is that renewable deployment now is not "just for fun" or "an end in itself by 2030". The larger goal is to put in place an industry which can phase out fossil energy by continued development. Success will breed more success. You don't wait till "everything you need in 2050 is ready".

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 24 Jul 2020 21:06

^^^No. Renewables are being done for low cost and nothing more. Thermal power will remain prominent until 2050. Solar energy will never take over baseload. That will go to hydro for renewables, but more than likely thermal and nuclear.

When you are unable to accept the numbers as presented by the CEA - which tells you what is happening on the ground instead of pie-in-the-sky analysis by questionable institutions, you resort to personal attacks. When you get called out, you resort to running to the moderators.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 24 Jul 2020 22:24

You keep harping on CEA reports but only presented one data point for June 2020 (I told you that earlier). The trend over 10 years is telling, and I posted all that info before. Hydropower is not going to take more significant baseload in India.

At this point, there is no substance in any argument you are presenting. Just a litany of wild statements that have no realistic basis and go against the facts and trends. I have given you all the necessary information and it is up to you to develop a rudimentary understanding of where things are going.

I take the "institutions" seriously because they produce reliable data and recommendations, many of them over decades. I have not attacked you personally. The only time I asked a mod to intervene is when you resorted to a personal attack (which was deleted from the record).

Your only constant refrain is "Thermal power will remain prominent until 2050". Congratulations, but you don't seem to understand a simple request to post away on that in other energy/power threads.

Thanks for trolling me for so long. After imitation, I think trolling is the second sincerest form of flattery. :lol:

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 25 Jul 2020 00:12

Trolling? I was talking about CSP for fuels, instead you brought sh!t-eating into the discussion. When I responded that you change mentality, you run to the mods without wanting to have any real discussion.

The CEA report of June was just a snapshot. If you choose not to look at CEA and CIL to see what is happening, I can't help you to read the links which are there to see what has been happening for the last few years. They've been around forever in this thread and others.

This is not the thread for climate change, it is about solar energy and specifically looking at the economic analysis of energy production of solar in relation to other energy sources in India. Yet you keep bringing the up "responsible climate change" topic that is unrelated to solar energy or any other energy in India.

Institutions outside of the GOI on policy are all very suspect. If you can't understand that, then again I can't help you.

If you bother to read what is happening with thermal from CIL and other news reports within India, you will see that thermal is operating at under capacity, and even de-commissioning older thermal, thermal production and power is picking up. The power ministry has not abandoned thermal nor is it ramping down thermal energy. The trend is to reduce older plant capacity and imported coal which you mistakenly correlate with "responsible climate change". Whereas the reality is that CIL has increased production of non-coking coal in the last 4 years since the Paris Agreement was signed.
https://www.coalindia.in/en-us/performa ... sical.aspx

Your facts and trends don't match what GOI data shows in terms of actual energy produced. Solar energy is definitely needed to pick up peak loads, but given what is happening in terms of energy deficit, more installation beyond a certain point will be difficult. You need to understand the difference in energy consumed by a growing economy vs. nameplate power growth. More solar capacity will be installed and smaller thermal capacity will be installed, but thermal will remain energy production dominant for the foreseeable future in India. That distinction has been lost on you or fail to see.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 25 Jul 2020 02:20

^^I have now placed this poster on ignore. I will keep posting on solar energy developments.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Mort Walker » 25 Jul 2020 02:56

Both KL Dubey and Rishirishi have been put on the ignore list. Reason - innumerate individuals.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 25 Jul 2020 21:18


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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 25 Jul 2020 21:26

When we hear of NTPC, we usually think of coal-fired power plants. But NTPC is getting into solar power including in other countries.....

https://www.livemint.com/industry/energy/ntpc-seeks-to-buy-1000-mw-solar-projects-with-at-least-rs-5-per-unit-tariff-11595574455257.html

https://www.livemint.com/industry/energy/eyeing-china-india-plans-solar-power-park-in-sri-lanka-11595419421198.html

By leveraging the country’ solar expertise, India’s largest power generation utility NTPC Ltd plans to set up this project in the island nation under the aegis of International Solar Alliance (ISA).
....

The proposed solar park follows after state-run NTPC Ltd’s plan to set up a coal-fuelled power project in Trincomalee didn’t make much headway and was eventually scrapped after Colombo asked India to change—for the second time—the location of the stalled $500 million project.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 25 Jul 2020 21:42

This gives an indication of NaMo's intentions and plans, its not just about plunking down a bunch of PV parks. It's about creating the infrastructure for a renewables-driven power grid that could even be global.

For an Indian leader to think and get into action this way (instead of just opting to send more soot-blackened workers to shorten their lives working in koila mines) is a remarkable example of India's new role.

Renewable energy isn't just about cost differentials any more - its closely connected to global influence strategies. Increasingly it looks like the "koila-tel-gas" alliance will consist mainly of China, Russia, and OPEC. I don't think any sensible entity in India prefers to be part of this group.

No prizes for guessing that such a vision can't be possible unless we stop Chinese hardware imports. NaMo is no greenhorn and there is a strategy for this.

https://www.livemint.com/industry/energy/firms-line-up-to-create-roadmap-for-india-s-global-solar-grid-plans-11594599251963.html

The global grid plan is spread across three phases. The first phase deals with the Middle East-South Asia-South-East Asia (MESASEA) interconnection for sharing green energy sources such as solar power. The second phase deals with the MESASEA grid getting interconnected with the African power pools; and the third and final phase is on global interconnection. The selected consultant will have to help develop OSOWOG’s long-term vision, implementation plan, roadmap and institutional framework.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby KL Dubey » 26 Jul 2020 01:43

It will be a combination of accelerated Make in India along with imposing up to 40% duties on imports....

https://www.saurenergy.com/solar-energy-news/plans-in-place-to-more-than-triple-local-solar-manufacturing-capacity

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/import-duty-on-solar-modules-to-rise-to-40-in-a-year/articleshow/76621967.cms?from=mdr

This is the way to go. PV cell and module manufacturing is not particularly hard, with local manufacturers already available.

Storage systems (batteries) also need attention going forward - costs have fallen rapidly.

And as installed systems reach end-of-life, recycling strategies have to be in place.

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Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Rishirishi » 12 Aug 2020 14:43

KL Dubey wrote:^^I have now placed this poster on ignore. I will keep posting on solar energy developments.


Good strategy.
Mort walker knows this stuff very well, but keeps on finding arguments against renewable's no matter how silly. I have been warned not to call Mort a lobbyist, so will refrain from doing so. Because frankly, i don't have any proof.

On a different note.
How lobbyists work; they create doubt. No matter how silly they will counter the logic. It works, because people pay limited attention to logic and facts. They pay attention to the conclusions. Once doubt is crated, the opinion can be shifted.

The facts are very clear.
Pv power is cheaper, but there are issues with continues power supply. Wind has some of the same issues. Coal is also problematic, because the power supply is mostly linear, it produces the same level all the time all the time. There are ways to mitigate the problems. Pumped hydro power and Battery. There are also areas that have a relative regular wind supply. The great hope is improved battery storage systems. But as of now, Coal power will be a part of the mix in India.


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