Solar energy in India

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Neela
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3650
Joined: 30 Jul 2004 15:05
Location: Spectator in the dossier diplomacy tennis match

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Neela » 05 Apr 2012 13:14

A long time ago, I predicted that the downward trend in panel prices will not last long. Neither will over-reliability on Solar.
News from America and Germany as foreseen - the consolidation in the industry begins!



Solar Flare-out
The green economy strikes again, or shall we say strikes out. Oakland-based Solar Trust of America filed for bankruptcy this week, leaving its planned multibillion-dollar plant in California on ice. The company declared itself insolvent after its parent—Germany's Solar Millennium—filed for bankruptcy in December, and Solar Trust realized it wouldn't be able to pay a $1 million rent check due April 1.

This, despite efforts from larger companies to merge with smaller ones. What does the following quote reek of?
Solar Millennium, in turn, had beenhoping to sell a controlling stake in Solar Trust to the German company, solarhybrid, until solarhybrid also filed for bankruptcy in March. Then there's Q-Cells, another German solar company, which also filed for bankruptcy this week, sharing that fate with Solon, the Berlin-headquartered photovoltaic firm that went bust in December
.

I tell you what it reeks of? It reeks of dead fish! Pull the water supply ( a.k.a subsidies ) , big fish eats small fish in a desperate attempt to survive - but even that is short-lived. Result: oblivion. Competition from China is often stated , yet the same European companies also manufactured in China.

Now, here is something to think about - without subsidies, companies die like flies. What does that mean for the real cost of Solar per 1MW?

Play time over folks.
Pretty soon you need take out your calculators and do the math again! :rotfl:

nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 1207
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby nandakumar » 05 Apr 2012 16:20

Theo:
I am quoting below a part of your response to mail from Vriksh. You had said,
Lets take both parts of your conversation. Your concern was about the heating of the environment affecting animal/plant life. My point was the color has nothing to do with this. Your confusion may be due to the fact that Cool colored roofs are strongly advised in Urban environments.
I recall that heat reflector paints are white in colour. In fact I once did the climb to the top of the Tirumala Hills barefoot. The pavements was painted with white paint and in the height of summer it was perfectly easy walking on the painted surface without feeling any heat whatsoever. Doesn't that follow that white colour reflects the heat back more efficiently?

Theo_Fidel

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 05 Apr 2012 21:20

Yes light color cools the object. But it does relatively little for the environment. I don't think heating the solar panels is the issue other than the marginal efficiency problem. The issue is how hot the local environment becomes. For this color by itself does not help. The reflected heat is absorbed back into the environment heating it. Also plants are not white they are green. The green color of plants is relatively minor compared to the evaporative cooling they provide.

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7142
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Amber G. » 05 Apr 2012 22:43

One only has to look at ice sheets of past/present, (Remember around ice-age many places covered with ice were receiving the same amount of sunlight in past (overall and approximately) as they do today) or areas with forest etc to know that the effect on environment due to, even a minor change as color of the ground covering, is a fairly complex phenomena..

Theo_Fidel

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 06 Apr 2012 00:17

Again. For white yes. Discussion is on green.

BTW despite all that ice the planet eventually heated up anyway! Ice was due to obit and orientation and atmospheric conditions and not because of reflection alone. Got to go more than skin deep.

By this logic the Sahara should be the coolest place on earth because you know it is filled with white sand. (BTW the Sahara often falls to freezing at night due to an entirely unrelated phenomena) And the oceans should be boiling, because you know they are dark.

Obviously need to go beyond common sense.

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7142
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Amber G. » 06 Apr 2012 01:01

Neela wrote:A long time ago, I predicted that the downward trend in panel prices will not last long. Neither will over-reliability on Solar.
News from America and Germany as foreseen - the consolidation in the industry begins!



Solar Flare-out
<snip>
Play time over folks.
Pretty soon you need take out your calculators and do the math again! :rotfl:


FWIW, per a draft report submitted by a committee reporting to Japanese Energy and Environment Council, post Fukushima to estimate costs of nuclear vs others (taking into account the cleanup, bad PR etc ) had some very interesting data... (I can dig out the reference from my archives.. though, IIRC the report may still be in a draft form..)

Their cost estimates for nuclear power generation in Japan estimated at 50% higher than previous figures were still comparable to costs for wind and geothermal generation and competitive with fossil fuels and better than solar ..

>>>The cost of solar(in Japan per this report), currently estimated at between ¥33.4 and ¥38.3 per kWh will fall substantially over the next two decades through technological innovation and the effects of mass production. By 2030 estimates for solar...at best ¥9.9 per kWh ..and at most, ¥20.0 per kWh.

For nuclear their estimation was similar to Institute of Energy Economics of Japan( after taking into account compensation of $130 billion for loss or damage from a nuclear accident etc) ... cost of nuclear electricity generation then at ¥8.5..

Theo_Fidel

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 06 Apr 2012 01:22

Amber G. wrote:For nuclear their estimation was similar to Institute of Energy Economics of Japan( after taking into account compensation of $130 billion for loss or damage from a nuclear accident etc) ... cost of nuclear electricity generation then at ¥8.5..


Yes, once through U-235 without storage and reprocessing is very cheap. Not sustainable however. Need some form of breeder and that is where the costs tend to spiral. Remains to be seen how the newer generations stack up as they are getting very very expensive. The AP-1000 in Georgia is at $14.8 Billion and rising for ~ 2000 MW. Up from $4 Billion when it was originally sold to the rate payers.

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7142
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Amber G. » 06 Apr 2012 01:28

Theo_Fidel wrote:Again. For white yes. Discussion is on green.

BTW despite all that ice the planet eventually heated up anyway! Ice was due to obit and orientation and atmospheric conditions and not because of reflection alone. Got to go more than skin deep.

By this logic the Sahara should be the coolest place on earth because you know it is filled with white sand. (BTW the Sahara often falls to freezing at night due to an entirely unrelated phenomena) And the oceans should be boiling, because you know they are dark.

Obviously need to go beyond common sense.

Obviously need to go beyond common sense.. Agree with that and want to add: sorry to be harsh but some of the other part of the above post is beyond silly as far as basic physics is concerned.

As said, before, the phenomena is complex, not to apply some silly simplistic thing like white/green...

All other things being equal, a black body will absorb more radiation.. it will also emit more radiation. (Yes a "blacker body" will loose heat faster than a "whiter body" if it is loosing heat by radiation alone).

But all other things are rarely equal...one need math not silly generalizations..

BTW, my point about ice-sheets, if one tries to understand it instead of mocking it, was quite valid. No there was not really that much difference in "orbit" etc.. the run-away effect if one suddenly paints large amount of area with white reflective coating can change environment dramatically... No it does not mean all white objects are cold, it just means that things are more complicated than silly generalization.

Hope this helps.
Last edited by Amber G. on 06 Apr 2012 01:34, edited 1 time in total.

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7142
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Amber G. » 06 Apr 2012 01:33

Theo_Fidel wrote:
Amber G. wrote:For nuclear their estimation was similar to Institute of Energy Economics of Japan( after taking into account compensation of $130 billion for loss or damage from a nuclear accident etc) ... cost of nuclear electricity generation then at ¥8.5..


Yes, once through U-235 without storage and reprocessing is very cheap. Not sustainable however. Need some form of breeder and that is where the costs tend to spiral. Remains to be seen how the newer generations stack up as they are getting very very expensive. The AP-1000 in Georgia is at $14.8 Billion and rising for ~ 2000 MW. Up from $4 Billion when it was originally sold to the rate payers.


Those were their estimates, not mine. However, I do think they have some credibility, and they are not complete idiots to ignore obvious facts.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 06 Apr 2012 01:53

Ok. Went and looked at my reflectance tables for textured surfaces.

Charcoal Grey Reflectivity/Emissivity is : 5%
Dark Green Reflectivity/Emissivity is : 22%
Ash White Reflectivity/Emissivity is : 82%

FWIW, Dark green does not qualify as a cool roof in California. Surprisingly neither does Emerald Green.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 06 Apr 2012 21:19

I have been thinking of the costs A posted some more and something seemed off. So did the numbers myself.

Before Fukushima Japans commercial Nuclear Capacity was ~40,000 MW.

So assuming a 80% PLF. 40,000x365x24x.8 = 280 Million MWhr ~ 300 Billion kwhr. Annually.

Cost estimates vary wildly right now. There are several independent estimates of $700 Billion over 20 years and TEPCO itself has now quietly settled on $250 Billion. Say we round it of to $300 Billion.

This would mean a cost of 100 cents to every kw of Nuclear power produced. This is value of 15-20 years of Japans entire Nuclear electricity out put at 6 cents a kw. From 1 accident. Even the lower $150 Billion estimate would mean fully 10 years of out put from all of Japans Nuclear reactors combined. Or the entire lifetime profit margin.

Lets extend this to India. Say a similar accident in India costs $100 Billion. (lower number). Keep in Mind India would see displacement 20 times Japan due to our population density. Right now we have ~ 5000 MW of nuke power. This means ~ 40 Billion kw/hr annually. So $2.50 per kw. Or roughly Rs 130 per kw on a annual basis. If DAE charges Rs 2 per kw this would be 65 years worth of output! Full output! If say there is a 10% profit margin. This would be 650 years worth of profits. From a single accident.

Compare that to say an exploding Solar panel… :-?
Last edited by Theo_Fidel on 06 Apr 2012 23:48, edited 1 time in total.

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7142
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Amber G. » 06 Apr 2012 22:47

Theo_Fidel wrote:Ok. Went and looked at my reflectance tables for textured surfaces.

Charcoal Grey Reflectivity/Emissivity is : 5%
Dark Green Reflectivity/Emissivity is : 22%
Ash White Reflectivity/Emissivity is : 82%

FWIW, Dark green does not qualify as a cool roof in California. Surprisingly neither does Emerald Green.


Sorry, but this makes very little sense. First, reflectivity (or Emissivity or trasmitivity for that matter) depends on type of material .. not just color (or "textured surface" alone). Metals which are shiny have higher reflectivity, than, say plastic , or coal. Never mind that , for roof, for example there is transmitivity (or air circulation etc) which can play much larger role, depending on type of material or venting..

For interested, any standard text book on physics and radiation can explain these terms...

If other things are same, it may make sense to talk about color, but without that it makes as much sense as saying xyz color makes better winter clothing (without mentioning the material of type of clothing)...

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7142
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Amber G. » 06 Apr 2012 22:53

40,000x365x24x.8 = 280 Million MW/hr ~ 300 Billion kw/hr. Annually.

What exactly is MW/hr? :eek: (Hint: It is not unit of power, or energy for that matter)
(For crying out loud, if a calculation which sees no difference between multiplication and division, why should any one take it seriously?)

Theo_Fidel

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 06 Apr 2012 23:38

A,

Yes it should be MWhr. Speed typing mistake.

Don't waste my time. It is obvious you have no experience with real world situations. Stick to your books. Please feel free to ignore. In fact I would strongly urge you to do so.
-----------------------------------

Getting back to solar.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ind ... 277787.ece

About six lakh jobs would be created in the next four years from projects coming under the solar mission alone. On an average, about 35 people are involved in the installation of 1 MW of solar plant— including manufacturing and installation of the final plant.


http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-0 ... -next-week

India’s Karnataka state will announce the results of its first auction to award contracts to build solar power plants by next week, a government official said.

The Karnataka Renewable Energy Development Ltd., the state- run agency overseeing the auction, is awaiting clarifications from three of the bidders before it announces the winner, Managing Director N.S. Prasanna Kumar said in an interview in Chennai. They have until this weekend to respond, he said.

Companies including Tata Power, Welspun Group, Kiran Energy Solar Power Pvt. and Jindal Aluminium Ltd. bid for 50 megawatts of photovoltaic capacity, according to KREDL. Bidders for 30 megawatts of solar-thermal projects were Sunborne Energy LLC, backed by billionaire Vinod Khosla, and Atria Power Corp.

brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby brihaspati » 07 Apr 2012 08:23

Amber G. wrote
BTW, my point about ice-sheets, if one tries to understand it instead of mocking it, was quite valid. No there was not really that much difference in "orbit" etc.. the run-away effect if one suddenly paints large amount of area with white reflective coating can change environment dramatically... No it does not mean all white objects are cold, it just means that things are more complicated than silly generalization.


Curious! Yes there is not "much" difference in orbital shape, true. But orbit and inclination both play a role, and it is the cumulative effect over centuries coupled with the prevalent continental land mass distribution w.r.t to oceans [interrupting or facilitating transport of tropical insolation heat to polar regions] - that seems to be coinciding with significant and recurrent long period ice-ages. There is a solid and statistically significant correlation of the ao-called Milankovich cycles with orbital changes.

Most paleoclimatologists converge on the primary driver of "ice-ages" being the complicated orbital and rotational changes [rotational axial orientation, orbital shape, and departures from orbital plane].

Once a critical ice cover is reached due most likely by orbital triggers, the reflectance is supposed to return more heat back into atmosphere. Critically it is ice covering water bodies or oceans that is more significant in both theory and simulations [people can look up the standard climate model simulations] - and land ice has less influence on acceleration of cooling [again simple physics explanation because of properties of water - scientists loosely call it the generally "darker colour of the ocean" meaning greater absorption and specific heat capacity].

Theo ji,
can you keep track of reflector-salt storage systems - if any - coming up in India? These are not PV based so different economics. The Chinese solar PV manufacturers have suffered from loss of demand in the west but they do not seem to have gone bust, so some of the "western" co's might simply be transferring base to China directly or indirectly, and declaring bankruptcy is a way out of paying creditors and employees.

Vriksh
BRFite
Posts: 406
Joined: 27 Apr 2003 11:31

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Vriksh » 08 Apr 2012 11:22

Continuing discussion about Heat effects of Solar Panels.

Even if we assume that the net heat effect under steady state conditions is independent of color. Having a darker surface implies that the net heat transfer is via conduction through the local ground and via convection to the atmosphere. Both conduction and convection are localized the heat effect is more pronounced in the local area.

A reflective surface is able to transfer heat from the surface to the atmosphere at longer distances since light is able to convey the radiant energy further, this means a more reflectively surface enclosed in an atmosphere is able to attain steady faster since it is able to access space (the final heat sink) more effectively.

I am willing to bet a considerable amount of money that ground below and atmosphere above a dark surface under Solar incidence is higher than a lighter surface. More ever I have this gut feeling that the color green has somehow been biologically "selected" to match carbon life form temperature of 20C. Any physics gurus out there working on proving or even disproving this hypothesis please share the Nobel with me :)

Neela
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3650
Joined: 30 Jul 2004 15:05
Location: Spectator in the dossier diplomacy tennis match

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Neela » 08 Apr 2012 13:10

Boy the price of nuclear installations seem to go higher within a matter of a few posts.
China is also installing the very same GE plants - yes those AP1000 ones. Prices there are not quoted I see.

Guess intense solar radiation can burn off integrity!

Neela
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3650
Joined: 30 Jul 2004 15:05
Location: Spectator in the dossier diplomacy tennis match

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Neela » 08 Apr 2012 13:24

Amber G. wrote:
Those were their estimates, not mine. However, I do think they have some credibility, and they are not complete idiots to ignore obvious facts.

:wink:
Say this a 100 times Amber!

Consider this:
On one hand we have these lot - their job as planners, scientists etc is to generate power on an economic budget . One the other side we have.......errrmmm ....a back of the envelope kind (with serious ethical/moral credibitly issues . I suggest yyou head to the Nuclear thread and search for my posts - you will know what I mean. )
When someone openly and rabidly discredits others - and I mean discrediting GoI planners and members of the scietific community , I really am convinced that these types cannot think - thir brains are hardwired. They try to find facts to fit their pursuit and in the process , make a clown of themselves.

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7142
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Amber G. » 09 Apr 2012 20:59

Theo_Fidel wrote:A,

Yes it should be MWhr. Speed typing mistake.

Don't waste my time. It is obvious you have no experience with real world situations. Stick to your books. Please feel free to ignore. In fact I would strongly urge you to do so.

Sorry if you take it as waste of your time, and find it necessary to insult me, and it is possible (or even likely) that "MW/Hr" was just a speed typing mistake this time but ...

- The same "mistake" has happened more than once; and then, when one follows it up by actual calculations where one does not pay attention of simple things like dividing vs multiplying, one is bound to get nonsensical results.(out of consideration of brf posters, I am not putting a link, but this, has come to attention to observers even out side brf...someone has commented " .. if energy is measured as rate of power per unit time..... time has come for evaluating energy acceleration ... sort of like cosmic inflation ... or, second derivative of energy ... :))

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7142
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Amber G. » 09 Apr 2012 21:37

Neela wrote:Say this a 100 times Amber!

Consider this:
On one hand we have these lot - their job as planners, scientists etc is to generate power on an economic budget . One the other side we have.......errrmmm ....a back of the envelope kind (with serious ethical/moral credibitly issues . I suggest yyou head to the Nuclear thread and search for my posts - you will know what I mean. )
When someone openly and rabidly discredits others - and I mean discrediting GoI planners and members of the scietific community , I really am convinced that these types cannot think - thir brains are hardwired. They try to find facts to fit their pursuit and in the process , make a clown of themselves.


Thanks. It is very easy to throw insults, it is much harder, but worthwhile, to do honest and careful calculations...

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7142
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Amber G. » 09 Apr 2012 22:13

Vriksh wrote:Continuing discussion about Heat effects of Solar Panels.

Even if we assume that the net heat effect under steady state conditions is independent of color. Having a darker surface implies that the net heat transfer is via conduction through the local ground and via convection to the atmosphere. Both conduction and convection are localized the heat effect is more pronounced in the local area...
<snip>

Vrikshji - There is a huge difference between "complex" and "independent" .I did not say that net effect is "independent" of color, it is just that situation is complex and needs proper analysis rather than just brushing it off... as you say there are lot of other factors involved are also involved but it does not mean color has no effect.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 10 Apr 2012 00:04

I notice you have no comment on the actual numbers that a Nuclear disaster entails. Just some bureaucratic sidebar that is pointlessly pedantic. I noticed the exact same thing when the Tummulapalle U discovery was made. I put the numbers in context as a few Billion tonnes of coal worth and immediately the argument was over some units of conversion. Classic diversion tactic.
---------------------------------------------

As far as planning goes I worked for the GOI agency planners for many years so I don't need to pretend they are heroes and assume to 'know' the conditions they operate under. Been there and done that. Their calculations are mostly done in a vacuum of real data and information. Much guessing goes on. This is not because they are stupid but that they work for large opaque bureaucracies that don't know what either hand is doing. Often times they are under political mandates to produce 'reports' for which they have little to no info. BTW if our planning was so great why exactly are we in this state right now. Answer me that. Planners as unquestionable gods... What next....
---------------------------------------------

Yet again a failure to read. Virksh is talking about steady state. Not convective vs conductive effect. Under steady state color has very little influence. White is different beast altogether. The question is if the environment will heat up because of Solar panels and if this can be mitigated though manipulating color. The answer is no. Cooling effect due to plants is not really due to color.

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7142
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Amber G. » 10 Apr 2012 01:11

On the lighter side ..
Paying attention to units is vital ...
Quoting from the following text book (Once used for a Physics course in Harvard) Introduction to Classical Mechanics
Your units are wrong! cried the teacher.
Your church weighs six joules — what a feature!
And the people inside
Are four hours wide,
And eight gauss away from the preacher!

:)

Added later: Wrt to Neela's: " back of the envelope kind calculations..."

Same book also has this wisdom ...
The skill to do math on a page
Has declined to the point of outrage.
Equations quadratica
Are solved on Math'matica,
And on birthdays we don't know our age.
:)
Last edited by Amber G. on 10 Apr 2012 01:25, edited 1 time in total.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 10 Apr 2012 01:24

There was nothing wrong with the units. Just a lack of comprehension.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 10 Apr 2012 08:43

BTW is anyone tracking the results of the California RAM Solar Auctions. One of my colleagues in the power industry indicated that the low bids were at 6.9 cents per kw. :eek: 8) Notice I said bids, plural. And these are 20 year fixed price contracts, no inflation adjustment required. And the price is expected to continue declining for the next 20 years.

This works out to under Rs3.50 a kw. Holy batman. I have a hard time seeing how any other technology can keep up with this commeditised pricing. The manufacturers have a plan to be under 5 cents a kw in 5-10 years and under 4 cents a kw in 20 years. Think about that Rs2 per kw. Can anything compete with that.
------------------------------------------------------

Meanwhile a fascinating little project for a 1mw CSP project using dish to steam? design.

There was a time when I was a kid when 400-500 of these could have powered the entire state of TN.

http://www.india-one.net/photogallery.html

Image

Image

Theo_Fidel

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 10 Apr 2012 11:26

Brihaspati,

I have been tracking the CSP projects in India with a spreadsheet and it indicates none with Salt storage as of right now. I think salt technology is too raw and new and untested for Indian banks to finance right now. Maybe after a couple of years.
--------------------------------------------------------

The energy budget of Earth or for that matter any local region is extraordinarily non-intuitive. Infact there are entire groups of people that argue for and against positions esp. WRT GW Natural vs manmade. We do know some things.

This is from the much cited KT97 article on the earths energy budget. Note the extraordinarily tiny portion reflected light from the surface holds. The vast majority of reflection happens high up. Not only that the vast majority of energy loss happen through long wave radiation. Notice the massive amount of back radiation. As reflection increases, back radiation too increases!

Image

Also take a look at this long wave image of the earth showing the poles. Note the extraordinarily low radiation losses the poles display. Because the poles receive little radiation they do don't heat up that much. So what ever radiation they do put out is promptly absorbed back by the atmosphere. Very counter intuitive. Most longwave (dominant) radiation loss occurs at the warm equator not the poles. A case has been made that a large ice sheet actually ends up heating up the atmosphere, not cooling it!

Image

Scientifically speaking all the evidence says we are still in the middle of an ice-age. We right now in the midst of relatively stable cool-moderate period. There have been much warmer and much cold period within the past 10,000 years. The past 4000-5000 years have been marked by extraordinary stability. It is not a coincidence that after 200,000 years of human existence modern civilization finally began 5,000-7,000 years ago.

brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby brihaspati » 11 Apr 2012 09:17

^^True. Three factors are now considered in the debate of retreat of the last ice age. Overloading of crust and hence volcanic release of greenhouse gas, meteor melting of glacial lakes, and excessive polar reflectance.

Theo ji,
I am in touch with the Spanish salt-based setup [I am not a commercially or biz interested person with this setup hence my interest is conflict free]. I am interested because of its extended productivity and safer heat storage method.

At the current rate we would need almost 2000 of similar 100 MW plants if we went for all solar. But it is crucial to have Indian on-ground R&D investments - as tech exported from here would be inordinately costly, and I believe our boys and girls back at home might just be able to ramp up the conversion and scale without costing an arm and a half. Had some tentative discussions about possibility for 200-300 MW and even 500. Its the cost that bothers them here. But as you well understand, our costs might actually be much less on various counts. Maybe we can have an exchange on this further off forum.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 12 Apr 2012 01:40

^^^^

I don't see why we can't have this conversation right here.

It is interesting that you have contact with the Spanish CSP investors. Obviously they don't have the FIT support mechanism anymore and hence India might look tempting to them. I have no doubt that India can show them how to reduce costs. Just as we did with PV and our auction process.

Do you know exactly which part of the design is causing the most financial cost? In my experience with the Ivanpah project the big cost was labor/materials for the heliostat field, IIRC it approached 50% of project cost! The HTF itself is only about 5% of the cost, maybe a bit more for storage.

The key number with CSP is efficiency. The best efficiency in the rankine cycle comes from higher temperatures. A 400 C HTF fluid is only 15% efficient in the field. The 550 C Ivanpah project is calculated to be 22% efficient. The eventual aim is to get the receiver to 700 C on future projects! Tell the Spanish guys they need to get the receiver hotter!

Above all, if CSP is to become cost effective we need a commercial Brayton turbine. Operating at 700 C a Brayton turbine will be 35% efficient! Without reheat.

brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby brihaspati » 12 Apr 2012 04:45

I was actually thinking along the lines of independent desh based research teams that may collaborate. But on the other hand, this is a personal aspect of mine - that I feel that indigenous R&D startups should be a better way to go instead of taking tech lock-stock and barrel from outside. Many times we end up having to work around design ideas built by others that might not be optimal. At least even an experimental small scale salt based research CSP undertaken by a consortium of our institutes and national labs would be a great beginning.

I was considering knocking on some of the people in my alma mater who are not engineers but would be great ones to knock on doors that matter. Just wanted to know from you - how far would that be "resisted" from expected opposition sources. I would push for indigenous so hopes of kickbacks cannot be satisfied. I hope you understand.

The Spanish "costs" are primarily in the labour and heliostat setup and coordination systems.

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21169
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Prem » 14 Apr 2012 09:00

http://inhabitat.com/areva-announces-pl ... n-in-asia/
Areva Announces Plans to Build Largest Solar Installation in Asia
CLFR technology uses mirrors to concentrate the sun’s energy to approximately 30 times its normal intensity. At the Rajasthan plant, the reflected sunlight will be used to heat liquid-filled tubes, which will generate high-pressure steam that will produce electricity via turbines.Construction on the first phase of the of the massive solar plant has already begun, and the entire project is expected to be completed by May 2013. According to Areva, once it is operational the project will represent a reduction of approximately 557,000 tons of CO2 emissions per year compared with a coal-fired power plant. “The project will help advance India’s goal of adding 20,000 MW of solar energy by 2022,” added Areva in a statement

Vipul
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3727
Joined: 15 Jan 2005 03:30

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Vipul » 16 Apr 2012 00:54

650 MW solar power projects to be inaugurated in Gujarat on 19th April 2012.

Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi said 15 solar projects with a capacity to produce 650MW power will be dedicated to the nation at Charanka solar park in north Gujarat on April 19. (The total solar power generation in the entire country is only 120 MW, while Gujarat will be generating 600 MW solar power)

Talking to a group of Solar Power Developers Forum, Modi said all these 15 projects have been completed in a record time of 16 months.

Modi said Gujarat is poised to become the world’s solar energy capital.He said his government would come out with a solar energy policy soon.

We have already sent a letter to the Prime Minister (Manmohan Singh) to develop a system along the 1,500 KMs India-Pakistan border to not only produce power but also put in place a solar-powered defence mechanism,” Modi said.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 17 Apr 2012 23:26

B,

Sorry for the delay.

What sort of research into Salt technology are you looking for. AFAIK molten salt technology is a very mature process. It has been used for ages by chemical and oil companies. Esp. as a coolant and as an electrolytic fluid. The only real innovation now is in optimizing the steam and electric generation cycles. IIRC the Terresol plants in Spain are using of the shelf molten salt equipment WRT pipes, pumps, tanks and sensors. Keep in mind the parabolic trough systems typically do not use Molten Salt but rather HTF is a organic oil of some kind.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Meanwhile....
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 704171.cms
Lanco Infratech subsidiary Lanco Solar announced the completion of 56 mw grid connected solar photovoltaic power plants in Gujarat.

It includes three plants of 35 MW owned by Lanco Infra and additional 21 MW built as turnkey EPC for Gujarat Power Corporation Ltd (GPCL), GSPC Pipavav Power Company Ltd, GHI Energy and Gujarat State Electricity Corporation.

brihaspati
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12410
Joined: 19 Nov 2008 03:25

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby brihaspati » 18 Apr 2012 03:15

Theo_Fidel wrote:B,

Sorry for the delay.

What sort of research into Salt technology are you looking for. AFAIK molten salt technology is a very mature process. It has been used for ages by chemical and oil companies. Esp. as a coolant and as an electrolytic fluid. The only real innovation now is in optimizing the steam and electric generation cycles. IIRC the Terresol plants in Spain are using of the shelf molten salt equipment WRT pipes, pumps, tanks and sensors. Keep in mind the parabolic trough systems typically do not use Molten Salt but rather HTF is a organic oil of some kind.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Meanwhile....
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 704171.cms
Lanco Infratech subsidiary Lanco Solar announced the completion of 56 mw grid connected solar photovoltaic power plants in Gujarat.

It includes three plants of 35 MW owned by Lanco Infra and additional 21 MW built as turnkey EPC for Gujarat Power Corporation Ltd (GPCL), GSPC Pipavav Power Company Ltd, GHI Energy and Gujarat State Electricity Corporation.



I was exploring the possibility of adopting indigenous expertise in the molten salt tech, for a pilot project if possible. Would involve some of the institutions in desh. I am gunning for reflector-tower with salt for night storage. I will keep you posted.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 18 Apr 2012 19:53

IMHO these could be useful research ideas for cutting cost.

- Eliminate salt storage entirely. Use the thermal mass of deep rock to hold heat.
- Research zero pumping techniques. Right now pumping of salt is about a 20% parasitic load on the plant.
- Cheap off shelf insulation. Right now the piping insulation is a proprietary product.

Above all we need a cheap standardized heliostat system that can be mass produced in a factory
and shipped to the site for one step assembly. Something like a satellite dish.
------------------------------------

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/sunedison_h ... in_gujarat

SunEdison has announced the connection of a 25MW solar power plant in Gujarat, India to the grid. The plant is located in a solar park in Charanka in the Patan district. The park is home to a variety of PV facilities by different developers, generating over 200MW in total. SunEdison’s plant is equipped with more than 89,000 PV modules and has been completed in only four months. As a participant in the Gujarat solar project, SunEdison has connected a total of 45MW in the Gujarat region.

-------------------------------------------------

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-1 ... india.html

Thin-film solar panels may perform better in hot climates than rival crystalline products, based on half a year of data from the first Indian projects, an executive at the nation’s largest contractor on the developments said.

“The last six months for which we have data show that the performance of crystalline in hot climates is not as efficient as thin film,” said S.N. Subrahmanyan, senior executive vice president of construction at Larsen & Toubro Ltd. (LT) “Of course, it’s still early days. But that’s what we’re seeing.”
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://rtn.asia/1197_modis-solar-progra ... oking-dull

Modi's solar program makes National Solar Mission look dull
The western Indian state of Gujarat has pulled well ahead of others, including the long-time favorite Rajasthan, in investing in solar technology and projects.

According to the latest industry numbers, Gujarat alone has a solar power production capacity of 200 million watts (200 MW) at peak (noon.)
In comparison, India as a whole had a grid-connected solar power generation capacity of just about 15 million watts (MW) about 2 years ago.

India has a target of raising its total grid-connected solar power capacity to 1,000 MW by 2013. Rajasthan, which alone can meet India's total power needs by covering a fraction of its desert with solar panels, was expected to be the leader in setting up solar plants. A total of 1% of India's total land area is estimated to be enough to meet the country's total power requirements, using current solar technology.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 19 Apr 2012 20:36

Tata Power, India’s one of the largest integrated power utility announced the crossing of 11,000MWh of generation as of yesterday from its solar power plant at Gujarat.

According to Tata, with its commissioning and declaration of commercial operation on January 25, 2012, the plant has performed ahead of expectations. The 25MW Mithapur plant is an important constituent of the Gujarat Government’s dedication ceremony for solar generation of 600MW in the state.


As noted India has some of the very best Solar resources in the world. Once properly connected most Solar plants out perform. In 85 days this plant has put out 11,000 mwh of power.

So it is an average of 11,000/85 = 129.4 mwh per day. This means roughly 129.4/25 = 5.176 daily hours of sun during winter months. Capacity factor 5.176/24 = 22%.

As the year goes on the performance will likely improve.
-----------------------------------------

Meanwhile the Australian ACT solar auction has been vastly overbid. The government offered 40MW and there was close to 800 MW submitted.

I think Solar is the ONLY power source that is open auction at the project phase itself. Mostly because just about anyone can do it. Random bunch of villagers can hire a couple of engineers and a couple of contractors and build a 1000 MW power plant in 4 months. This means the power can only get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper.

India should prepare for this intermittent power future.

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7142
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Amber G. » 19 Apr 2012 21:17

From Washington Post:
Gujarat flips switch on Asia’s largest solar field, leading India’s renewable energy ambitions
The west Indian state of Gujarat is flipping the switch on Asia’s largest solar power field as part of its 600 megawatt solar energy addition to India’s power grid.

The Gujarat Solar Park, spread across a desolate 3,000-acre (1,200-hectare) swath of desert, can supply 214 megawatts of electricity, making it larger than China’s 200-megawatt Golmud Solar Park.

The project gives a serious boost to energy-hungry India’s renewable energy ambitions. Overall, India wants renewables to account for at least 15 percent of its energy capacity by 2020, up from 6 percent of today’s 185 gigawatt capacity.

The new solar park is unique in having 21 companies involved in its management and development, including four from the United States.

<snip>
___

Vipul
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3727
Joined: 15 Jan 2005 03:30

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Vipul » 19 Apr 2012 21:21

Gujarat planning rooftop solar power policy for households: Modi.

Gujarat, which is bathed in the sun’s rays for most part of the year, is considering coming up with a “rooftop” solar power plant policy to enable the people to produce their own electricity and earn money by selling surplus power to the grid, the Chief Minister, Mr Narendra Modi, said here on Thursday.

Gandhinagar, being developed as India’s first model solar city, already has solar rooftop systems ranging from 1 kilowatt (kW) to 150 kW at more than 150 locations, aggregating to a capacity of 1.39 MW. These cover a total of two acres of roof-top area, providing 1 per cent of the total energy consumption in the State capital. Also, the new building of the Gujarat Pollution Control Board (GPCB) is completely powered by solar energy.

Recently, the State Government floated a 5 MW rooftop programme on the PPP model in the capital, which is now being extended to five more cities and towns.

After dedicating to the nation an ambitious 605 MW solar power project spread across 10 districts, he said the policy would make the people self-reliant in power generation. Also, this would help them rent out their roofs for such plants and earn extra income to improve their living standards. The solar project has created an additional 30,000 jobs in the State.

The Gujarat Solar Park, set up with an investment of nearly Rs 9,000 crore on a 2,669 acre plot of wasteland in village Charanka in Patan district, is the largest part of the State’s power project with 214 MW of operational capacity, developed at a single location by private companies. The overall capacity of the Solar Park, when it expands to 5,000 acres, would be 500 MW, making it the largest solar farm in Asia.

The entire solar power project would produce 30 lakh units of clean energy daily, capable of electrifying 10 lakh households, and save 10 lakh tonnes equivalent of carbon dioxide emissions annually.

He said technology has reduced the cost of solar power production from Rs 15 to Rs 8.5 per unit in the last few years, making it affordable and on a par with gas-based power. Between 2001 and 2012, Gujarat increased its installed and under-development power generation capacity from 7,000 MW to 18,000 MW.

The US Consul-General in India, Mr Peter Haas, said his country had committed $500 million to the State for development of renewable sources of energy.

The State-promoted Gujarat Power Corporation Ltd (GPCL), nodal agency for implementation of the Solar Park, has invested Rs 300 crore in creating infrastructure while Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation

Ltd (GETCO) has invested Rs 650 crore on an evacuation and transmission network, for which The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has extended a loan of Rs 500 crore to GETCO. For the proposed second Solar Park in the State, ADB would provide loan of $500 million.

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7142
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Amber G. » 20 Apr 2012 01:24

Theo wrote:As noted India has some of the very best Solar resources in the world. Once properly connected most Solar plants out perform. In 85 days this plant has put out 11,000 mwh of power.

So it is an average of 11,000/85 = 129.4 mwh per day. This means roughly 129.4/25 = 5.176 daily hours of sun during winter months. Capacity factor 5.176/24 = 22%.

Again, mwh is not an unit of power, power is measured in units like Watt, while energy is measured in joules (=Watt*second).

It is also absurd to get 4 significant figures (eg 5.176) starting with 2 sig. input . besides, one can directly measure daily hours of sun, if one wants to, instead of doing strange backward meaningless calculations. :roll:

Theo_Fidel

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby Theo_Fidel » 20 Apr 2012 05:54

In a little noted item....

B,

Were you part of this.

http://www.evwind.es/noticias.php?id_not=17963
An Indian delegation lead by Mr. Gireesh Pradhan, Secretary of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, visited some Spanish Concentrating Solar Thermal Power plants and met with Protermosolar the 18th April.

Mr. Pradhan was very positively impress by the visits to the solar thermal plants and declares the strong commitment of India with solar energy (both photovoltaic and STE). The biggest issue in India in terms of energy is to provide electricity to the 40% of population which have no access today.


Crespo presented the big advantages of CSP plants for India regarding potential, dispatchability, grid estability and macoreconomic impacts. He foresees a major role of CSP in the future Indian generation mix.

Some Spanish companies like Abengoa, Acciona and ACS attended to the meeting as well. They expressed their interest and commitments to collaborate with he Indian Government and local partners in the deployment of CSP in the country.

lakshmikanth
BRFite
Posts: 723
Joined: 27 Oct 2008 10:07
Location: Bee for Baakistan

Re: Solar energy in India

Postby lakshmikanth » 20 Apr 2012 07:35

Theoji,

I am sitting in massland and watching this thread with great interest. Stumbled upon the prospects of solar thermal a few years ago when I was in college ever since then it has been always on my radar.

I was wondering if there is any point doing any more research in this field, or are there enough Indian companies in this field already that tailor to the "Indian conditions"? I am wondering how I can help/contribute and be a part of this revolution in des :). If you know of any pointers contacts you would like to share, let me know.

let me know.
Last edited by lakshmikanth on 21 Apr 2012 01:20, edited 1 time in total.


Return to “Technology & Economic Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], Karan M and 119 guests