Indian Economy: News and Discussion (Apr 1 2011)

[disha]

So what's the problem if the big boxes aren't going to be a success? I posted earlier that the big box model is on the way out even in the US due to the rise of online shopping. Why not take the money the newcomers will invest and run figuratively speaking?

Because it will destroy both the producer and consumer side of the economy.

For example, walmart will not put movies on its shelf which does not cater to its christian tastes. And the diversity of food is lost, particularly the supply side of the food - and no it does not lower costs., it just concentrates wealth in few suppliers. So it will not be "take the money"., since by the time the money is taken, the scene would have changed and not necessary for good.

What Govt. needs to concentrate on more, rather than do FDI, is to work on several structural issues in Legal (Judiciary), Education, Health, Infrastructure and Energy.

[Singha]

I agree that beyond a couple of anchor standalone shakinah stores for psyops, if the foreign retailers want to make it big in india they have to open smaller inner city and mall based stores to reach out to a wider footfalls. the american 'model' of driving out 20 miles to the nearest megastore does not work anywhere else incl india. its not a model but unique to american's wide open roads, cheap petrol and the cultural willingness of its people (big houses with basements/attics to stash away stuff) to buy 48 pack toilet rollls, 50kg bags of puppy chow, 50 ltr DRUMS of tomato puree and industrial sized cuts of meat and bread.

'normal' is the rest of the world. but people of america are like the inmates in the asylum who think they are the ones looking in

[Anurag]

http://m.thehindu.com/business/Economy/ ... 81679.ece/

[Theo_Fidel]

If the price is right Indians will travel anywhere. I ran into a couple of folks from Vellore who share taxi rode from Vellore for a big bazaar deal weekend in Chennai.

Americans don't like to buy in huge bulk. They do so to be cheap. Saves on packaging and branding. Americans would love to have a store on every street and did at one point. They gave it up as too inefficient and expensive. They try to keep the local gas stations going but they too are now shutting down. Cultural willingness comes over time.

As far as wide open streets,those days are long long gone. It is hell driving through the suburbs of large American cities.

[disha]

.. the american 'model' of driving out 20 miles to the nearest megastore does not work anywhere else incl india. its not a model but unique to american's wide open roads, cheap petrol and the cultural willingness of its people (big houses with basements/attics to stash away stuff) to buy 48 pack toilet rollls, 50kg bags of puppy chow, 50 ltr DRUMS of tomato puree and industrial sized cuts of meat and bread.

There is a whole lot of difference between the "American way" and "Indian way"., not comparable (and in the case of above, it is different - so critiquing it from Indian perspective will take us nowhere!)

America is huge, to give a perspective, if all the humans in the world (6-7 Billion) were to put in the state of Texas, the density will be still less than New York. There are vast areas., yes there is huge suburbia around all cities, but there is the other side as well. Imagine living in Idaho, Wyoming or Montana and the distances from one home to the next is measured in miles. Hence the need to buy in bulk (to save trips and to save costs)., further when faced with a large family (when they go for it they really have large family)., it helps to have a 48 pack toilet rolls and 50 kg bags of puppy chow to ensure that the whole brood of puppies is fed. Coming to the toilet rolls of course several parts of America have cold weather - go figure., particularly what happens when one runs out it.

If the price is right Indians will travel anywhere. I ran into a couple of folks from Vellore who share taxi rode from Vellore for a big bazaar deal weekend in Chennai.[\quote]

If the price is right, any human will travel anywhere to get "a deal"., like people going to Washington state to get a car and save on sales tax., or going to a mall some 60 miles away to order appliances. So will the Indians.

Americans don't like to buy in huge bulk. They do so to be cheap. Saves on packaging and branding. Americans would love to have a store on every street and did at one point. They gave it up as too inefficient and expensive. They try to keep the local gas stations going but they too are now shutting down. Cultural willingness comes over time.

Or cultural willingness (or human tendencies) will change for the right price. For eg., if the price of the rice goes up, people will switch to barley, of course all price distortions are due to local and government policies some with intended consequences and mostly with unintended consequences.

[rishabhsood]

Deleted. Do not disrupt thread with off-topic discussions.

[Sri]

I can't understand the lack of confidence displayed here on Retail industry. I find it down right insulting, where people suggest that Indians will not be able to compete with Foreign retailers. What is the problem if a foreign company invests in improving the supply chain in India. It is our biggest need. 30% of fruit and vegetables produced are ruined because of lack if proper storage / transportation network. for over 60 years we have completely failed to address these problems.

Moreover, it is impossible to have a captive market in retail specially in India where the consumer is ultra price conscious. We have a system where farming sector is singularly disconnected with supply - demand cycle. Have we ever wondered why when the global oil price rises, gulf shieks are the happiest people around. But when the global food prices rise our farmers still commit suicide?

And who are these retailers going to sell their goods to? Indians only right? then what is the problem in it? Why do we shy away from competition, is my problem. What stops India retailers to copy the foreign model and succeed?

[Vikas]

Are we getting a Retail store or some Vegetable vendor ? The whole discussion seems to be about Farmers,Middleman and Vegetables.
Wal-marts of the world sell more stuff than just vegetables.

[Sri]

The whole argument on what happens to the Kirana store wala is also bogus. Give me one example in India where in the local Kirana wala has suffered ? I have a place in Sector 29 in Noida. The sector is less then 1 KM away from famous Atta Market. Which has about 3 mega malls and a HUGE BIG bazar. Still in my sector the local Kirana guy flourishes. Brahmaputra market / Ganga shopping center, indira market, you go anytime you won't find a place to stand. And all this within a stones throw away from all these giants...

[Upendra]

IB advised against FDI

[Aditya_V]

Just when you thought the NAC and INC cannot outdo themselves, they do and come with an even more brilliant plan.


NREGA's new avatar: Work later, take home cash now

Meanwhile ISI Sponsored Fai cotrustee has this to say.

dvance payment has been supported by experts like National Advisory Council member Harsh Mander who say that such a move will not only restore faith of the workers, but also increase the rate of completion of works.

[Vipul]

Net direct tax collection up 8.63% at over Rs 2.35 lakh cr.

The net direct tax collection jumped 8.63% to Rs 2,35,333 crore during the first eight months of this fiscal.It stood at Rs 2,16,628 crore in the same period of the previous fiscal."We have (thus) achieved 44% of the Budget estimate," a senior finance ministry official told PTI.

The gross direct tax collections for the April-November period registered a growth of 19.56% at Rs 3,04,002 crore. The figure was Rs 2,54,268 crore in the same period of the previous fiscal.

The income tax department provided refunds to the tune of Rs 68,669 crore during the period, as against Rs 37,640 crore in the corresponding period last year, the official said.The gross corporate tax collection was up 19.61% at Rs 1,99,317 crore during April-November against Rs 1,66,638 crore in the same period last year.

The gross personal income tax collection was up 19.44% at Rs 1,04,176 crore.The net corporate income tax in April-November was higher by 5.65%, touching Rs 1,46,279 crore as against Rs 1,38,461 crore in the same period last year.

Similarly, net personal income tax was up 14% at Rs 88,567 crore, the official added.

[vera_k]

India inches closer to crisis as rupee retreats

[Satya_anveshi]

Are there similarities of MNREGA with the following (was referred in meltdown thread in a diff context)?
Cloward–Piven strategy

[vera_k]

Because it will destroy both the producer and consumer side of the economy.

Make up your mind - either organized retail will be successful or it will not. If it will not be successful as is being claimed, how will it possibly destroy anything?

[svinayak]

India Stocks Plunge Over Reported Delay to Retail Plan

THis is good. Now it will clean the Dalal st and also bring more distance of Indian market from the foreign market which was giving false data to Indian market. Hilarious question answer debate here.

[Singha]

in my opinion the next six months are a good time to periodically buy indian stocks and MFs at cheap NAV. most of them have declined by 15% in last 1 yr.

[svinayak]

in my opinion the next six months are a good time to periodically buy indian stocks and MFs at cheap NAV. most of them have declined by 15% in last 1 yr.

There will be a decline of 50% or more. That is the time to buy.

[VikramS]

I have not been following India that closely but the drop in INR is scary. And the murmurs are that it is going to get worse before it gets better. I am intrigued by the high rates of inflation though. How much does counterfeit TSP currency contributing to it?

[harbans]

^ I have a feel that it's enormous..really huge. Paki's would have several printing presses 24 x 7, opened up banks in the ME that would launder the money with channels into India via Thailand, Nepal, BD, Malaysia. The right thing to do in response for such would be to bomb the mints in Quetta from the Afghan side..GOI seems lackadaisical in it's attitude to dealing with the problem. At least diplomatic talks should make a point on this repeatedly. But no Pappi Jhappi will solve all our problems..

[Suraj]

Why is the drop scary ? It's merely a result of net FII inflows being negligible this year compared to the prior fiscal, and that can be attributed to the Eurozone volatility. Regarding exports, wasn't the whole argument about the significant growth in exports recently based on the thesis that our export markets have diversified into LatAm, Africa and other non-traditional (US+Eurozone) regions ? Further, the currency situation is self-balancing - weaker rupee will lower the demand for oil, which accounts for almost our entire current account deficit. In some years, we'd have run a trade surplus, net the oil bill. The lower Rupee also incentivizes remittances, as it did for me personally. The persistently high inflation though, is a testament to GoI's fiscal mismanagement; while RBI may handle monetary management issues, the buck stops with GoI.

[disha]

Make up your mind - either organized retail will be successful or it will not. If it will not be successful as is being claimed, how will it possibly destroy anything?

Vera_k., before you throw the gauntlet - do make up your mind! Is FDI-in-retail synonymous with organized retail or epynomous? My case is simple, FDI-in-retail *will* destroy both the producer and consumer side of the suppy-consumer-chain.

Government first should remove artificial barriers, simple ones like if milk is more in Haryana and wheat is more in Punjab, export/import should be allowed. What is the point of forcing a remote district in Rajasthan to trade via Jaipur when the nearest trading outpost will be in Punjab?

FDI-in-retail is nothing but "saab andar (under) ki baat hai"., no need to get workedup on it.

[SBajwa]

I agree Disha!! that's a huge point.

Wheat farmers of Punjab/Haryana should be able to sell it at Bombay and Fish from Bengal could be sold at Punjab without any barriers (all food items in India) before international barriers are lifted.

[vina]

Further, the currency situation is self-balancing - weaker rupee will lower the demand for oil, which accounts for almost our entire current account deficit

Nope. It won't. Not with the current Administered Pricing Regime. It will "self balance" , only if it is a pass thru like in petrol (where we are seeing demand destruction). But by subsidizing diesel so heavily, you are encouraging switching and guess what, increasing the absolute and relative size of the fuel subsidy by ever increasing amounts (the more people buy diesel vehicles, the more you have to subsidize), now and in future. It is such rank idiocy which (along with fiscal prolifigacy) that is at the root cause of run away inflation and skewed macro imbalances , leading us to stare at a 1989 like situation. In 1989, what pushed us over the precipice is Rajiv Gandhi losing the situation and that nut case VP Singh coming in and writing the 10,000 crore farm waiver, leading to close to 20% inflation and sure enough , when there was a shock in terms of Saddam Hussein invading Kuwait, the entire thing collapsed.

We are in such a situation, the only thing this govt needs to pray for is that there is no shock (like Iran getting hit by US/Isreal and generally triggering a Iran vs Arab states war).

[Suraj]

Vina, it doesn't require a perfectly market driven pricing system to cause enough reduction in petroleum demand. GoI's ability to subsidize *and* speed at which it can subsidize are limited, not only will demand fall due to progressively increasing prices at the pump, but supplies will be curtailed, with consumers being urged to rationalize use. Yes, GoI is profligant, but higher inflation also means higher nominal revenues, even if it crimps real growth. I just hope conditions selfcorrect before chronic stagflationary conditions take hold, but IMHO, I don't think we're at that point, which is what I stated in my earlier post.

The 1990 crisis was a BoP crisis driven by a significant fraction of short term external debt that came due; the mid to late 80s saw a progressive increase in IGs early liberalisation moves (Maruti etc), but fed by hot money that exited due to a combination of internal and external factors. I do agree that the domestic political situation is analogous - two Congress regimes that came to power with historic mandates and proceeded to demonstrate how to squander it in <5 years.

[gakakkad]

^^ Sir , the above would be true if things were 'normal' and we had a right thinking government. The present government is in no mood to set the finances right and frame correct policies. It intends to ensure that India collapses .

Look at NACs latest scheme.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 999850.cms

NEW DELHI: The government is considering rolling out a " free-medicine-to-all" scheme through public hospital and health facilities across the country in a bid to arrest poverty and indebtedness mainly in rural areas.

So now we have a medicine equivalent of the food security bill .


I can paint a far scarier picture.

It is said that US has xyz trillion dollars of debt in form of committed medicare/social security expense . I say that we have a similar problem . The committed annual expense on subsidies + NREGA this year was 150 b. Add FSB and a few a few other lunatic schemes like free medicine , and the expense comes up to 250 B. Assuming 20-25% nominal growth in this expense every year (accounting for inflation and GDP growth) , I argue that we have we have 7-10 trillion dollars of committed expense in the form of lunatic schemes and subsidies till the year 2022 . By 2022 the annual subsidy bill /lunacy bill could cost the exchequer over a trillion (perhaps 2) every year .
And we have that kind of bill without the Khanate level per capita income or infrastructure.

Further , the infra spending is too little. We have a young population in comparison to the ageing population of Khanate . Ageing population needs less jobs and the economy is essentially non inflationary . On the other hand the Indian population would need more jobs in an inflationary economy . Judging by the current policy , the jobs will not meet the demand. meaning that unemployment rates will be gigantic.

I know that the above picture is a little too horrifying . But the present gov't has every intention of making it true .

[Suraj]

gakkakad: That's quite a lot of paranoia for something just under consideration, as if it's already an immutable act of parliament with fixed expenditure commitments. Yes, GoI is profligate, but there's nothing new there - they've been like that since 2005. I find their high minded notions of erasing poverty with this idea laughable - they're clearly just pandering for votes using public money, and are due all the criticism they deserve for that.

[Aditya_V]

Problem is currently what the NAC is doing, that the same party wins even if the consequences of economy is disastrous. No Politician can ever backtrack or reduce freebees, while same people will suffer due to high inflation, bad drugs in the corrupt system, lack of infrastructure etc. Our income disparity will further go up with a minor % of Govt. Employees and Politically connected doing well.

[Suraj]

Subsidy bill may exceed estimates by Rs.1 lakh crore

"The net increment (in subsidies) would be roughly not less than Rs 80,000 crore. It may be Rs 1,00,000 crore," Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said in his reply to a debate on the second supplementary demand for grants, adding that the fundamentals of the economy were still sound. "The economy is in a difficult situation, but it does not mean that we should start eating lizards," he said.

Lok Sabha on Wednesday approved the Rs 56,800 crore additional expenditure proposed by the government during 2011-12 through a voice vote.

Experts had doubted the government numbers right from the day the budget was presented. Joshi said, "We are now revising our estimates as we expect the growth to be lower and outgo on subsidies to be higher."

The ministry's admission on the subsidy bill has raised market apprehensions that the government's annual borrowing will exceed even the revised target, which was raised by Rs 53,000 crore recently.

Yields on benchmark bonds rose to 8.61% on Wednesday from 8.56% a day earlier.

[Cosmo_R]

Make up your mind - either organized retail will be successful or it will not. If it will not be successful as is being claimed, how will it possibly destroy anything?

Vera_k., before you throw the gauntlet - do make up your mind! Is FDI-in-retail synonymous with organized retail or epynomous? My case is simple, FDI-in-retail *will* destroy both the producer and consumer side of the suppy-consumer-chain.

Government first should remove artificial barriers, simple ones like if milk is more in Haryana and wheat is more in Punjab, export/import should be allowed. What is the point of forcing a remote district in Rajasthan to trade via Jaipur when the nearest trading outpost will be in Punjab?

FDI-in-retail is nothing but "saab andar (under) ki baat hai"., no need to get workedup on it.

I would not worry about FDI in much of anything.:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 034306.cms

"India no longer a preferred destination for MNCs, we have lots of issues: Microsoft


This is consistent with what I've been hearing in my circuit. The Nuke Power fiasco, the retail FDI fiasco, the infrastructure issues, the wage escalation and turnover plus the endless agitations against coal mines, iron ore mines, auto plants etc etc. all have converged to relegate India to a 'not gonna happen' category.

This is alarming when you think of the current account deficit. Unless something positive happens fast (which I doubt), it will be a lost decade for growth.

JMT

[gakakkad]

^^ no company would dare quote such a thing. It is a TOIlet article . I am worried about fiscal profligacy and lack of policy . But IMHO this will not be a lost decade . The savings rates are high , and even though things need to get still quicker almost 1500-2000 mw of power gets added each month to the grid. (1 or 2 new power stations each month ) ..

[vera_k]

Government first should remove artificial barriers, simple ones like if milk is more in Haryana and wheat is more in Punjab, export/import should be allowed. What is the point of forcing a remote district in Rajasthan to trade via Jaipur when the nearest trading outpost will be in Punjab?

Fine, so why don't those parties (NDA, some UPA, Sonia/Rahul Gandhi) opposed to FDI in retail ask that such measures be included in the FDI-in-retail enabling law? For that matter, they could ask for a subsidy or assistance for those traders impacted adversely by opening FDI in retail.

[vera_k]

FDI in retail suspended to avoid mid term polls

The article indicates that the country is ungovernable at this point in time from Delhi. A change of tack is perhaps needed, so that Delhi delegates more to the states. Changes to the concurrent list would find support from many state CMs, and at least some states might be willing to break from the mould.

[Cosmo_R]

^^ no company would dare quote such a thing. It is a TOIlet article . I am worried about fiscal profligacy and lack of policy . But IMHO this will not be a lost decade . The savings rates are high , and even though things need to get still quicker almost 1500-2000 mw of power gets added each month to the grid. (1 or 2 new power stations each month ) ..

It's not enough and as far as 'no company would dare..." , many are pretty vocal and US-India Business Council along with the Indian Amby get a daily earful. Keep watching the WSJ.....

As far as 'ToIlet', google

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&gl=u ... 0l0l0ll0l0

[sanjeevpunj]

It has been made ungovernable by so much unprecedented opposition.Delhi does need to divest its control over many areas, I agree.Opposition is using every opporunity to force early elections,and GOI is doing everything it can to avoid this.We have a stalemate, wonder when it will end.

[csaurabh]

It has been made ungovernable by so much unprecedented opposition.Delhi does need to divest its control over many areas, I agree.Opposition is using every opporunity to force early elections,and GOI is doing everything it can to avoid this.We have a stalemate, wonder when it will end.

It is a stalemate because the 'UPA Govt' is floundering in 10 different directions.
Many of us think SG dictates everything but this isn't really true. MMS has his own plans. Chidu has his own plans. Pranab has his own plans. I doubt SG would have passed the FDI retail thing without atleast consulting alliance partners. Meanwhile inflation is soaring, corruption and scamming are at an all time high and NAC wants to impose more commie policies on the nation.
If RG had any brains or leadership quality at all he would come out and try to solve political and national crisis. Instead he makes mysterious trips to villages from time to time to meet with poor 'Daleet' villagers.

[Cosmo_R]

It has been made ungovernable by so much unprecedented opposition.Delhi does need to divest its control over many areas, I agree.Opposition is using every opporunity to force early elections,and GOI is doing everything it can to avoid this.We have a stalemate, wonder when it will end.

It is a stalemate because the 'UPA Govt' is floundering in 10 different directions.
Many of us think SG dictates everything but this isn't really true. MMS has his own plans. Chidu has his own plans. Pranab has his own plans. I doubt SG would have passed the FDI retail thing without atleast consulting alliance partners. Meanwhile inflation is soaring, corruption and scamming are at an all time high and NAC wants to impose more commie policies on the nation.
If RG had any brains or leadership quality at all he would come out and try to solve political and national crisis. Instead he makes mysterious trips to villages from time to time to meet with poor 'Daleet' villagers.

True. However, as a reasonable person would also argue, as and when the NDA comes to power, it will face payback time and its tenure too will devolve into a stalemate.

The Indian political system is has been honed to manage electioneering. Governance and accountability are foreign. That's not a good thing regardless of Indian 'democracy' being brushed over as 'cacophonous', 'vibrant', 'inclusive' 'consensual' etc.

[nachiket]

Since just about everyone besides the congress opposed FDI in retail, no matter who comes to power in the next elections, they won't move a finger even if they themselves feel that FDI in retail might be a good thing in order to keep in line with their original position. And the congress will oppose it then just as vehemently as the BJP et al are doing now (awkward questions be damned). We can very well say goodbye to FDI in retail for the next 10 years.

[gakakkad]

^^ FDI in single brand retail has been permitted. Even for multi brand retail it ll come sooner than one might imagine.Sonia has her own power block . Other feudal lords have their own . The important thing here is that MMS and Montek's policies are economically sound and good for the country . While those coming from the congress are electorally motivated and disastrous for the country . For instance , Montek himself criticized the govt recently . He has often times advocated removed fuel subsidies altogether .

What happened in FDI is that Mamta wants a bailout of close to 4 billion for her state . She does not care 2 cents whether walmart supplies the majority groceries or the kirana waala does. She simply wanted the bailout . She tried cornering the gov't when petrol price was raised . She found another pretext when retail fdi issue came up.

Congress itself opposed the move. They were worried that it would have a negative impact.

BJP itself introduced the move back in 02 . Congress opposed it .

Thing is tha MMS has taken the thing very personally . Its fortunately an H&D issue for him now . Just like the nuke deal . So he ll ensure it one way or the other .

What we truly need to worry about is the main INC and NAC .. This has easily been the worst gov't we have had since VP Singh . Easily rivals Indira or Jawahar in the quality (the lack of it) of governance.

Even if multi brand FDI's don't come the impact would not be that much . What we need to be concerned about is the mounting fiscal deficit , ever increasing subsidy bill (this year it increase BY 25-30 billion ) and the ever lunatic schemes of the NAC. These are the most disastrous things .

[nachiket]

BJP itself introduced the move back in 02 . Congress opposed it .

Opposing for opposition's sake. This is what will continue to happen.

Thing is tha MMS has taken the thing very personally . Its fortunately an H&D issue for him now . Just like the nuke deal . So he ll ensure it one way or the other .

...if he is allowed to. Nuke deal had support of 10 Janpath.

What we need to be concerned about is the mounting fiscal deficit , ever increasing subsidy bill (this year it increase BY 25-30 billion ) and the ever lunatic schemes of the NAC. These are the most disastrous things .

This is one of the most profligate governments we have seen. The danger is that as the 2014 elections get closer, these shortsighted populist schemes will increase even more leading to an even larger fiscal deficit, higher inflation and lower growth.
These days everyone including the government seems to take 8% GDP growth for granted. The unwillingness/lethargy in doing anything to sustain investment and growth will come back to bite us.