Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

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SwamyG
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby SwamyG » 22 Feb 2015 02:22

Okay, that is it. Raghuram Rajan has to go. Irrespective of his differences with Modi, BJP ityadi, he cannot bring in Hitler to the discussion table in this manner. He might have the greatest mind after Kautilaya in the field of Artha, it does not matter. Should never have brought someone from Chicago School of Economics.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby RamaY » 22 Feb 2015 02:32

SwamyG wrote:Two lectures by S.Gurumurthy at IIT, Bombay; as part of the course "Indian Financial and Business Model".

2.5 hours of good lectures on India in general from the economics perspective. Obviously, knowing S.Gurumurthy you can expect his ideology and biases to seep in, after all it is his lecture. Lots of points have been discussed in BRF too. Fully kommunal and nationalistic onlee.

Gives all round big picture to tie it with Indian business. If you cannot watch the entire thing, then watch the last 20mins of the second video.





Many many thanks SwamyG garu.

I humbly request Suraj garu to make these videos as the first post of every Economic thread.

Our dhimmitude must end.

Regarding RR, he is known to be a sepoy for a long time, but our secular minds didn't want to believe. Pls note that RR quotes the same Dumbo Fakuyama that sgurumurthy warns us about.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Vayutuvan » 22 Feb 2015 02:50

IIT+IIM+UChicago results in Hubris^3.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Singha » 22 Feb 2015 06:46

He has not even finished 2yrs of his 5yr tenure.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby fanne » 22 Feb 2015 08:49

Simple rule -- any UPA appointee is anti Indian ( as thaT could have been the only criteria).

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Hari Seldon » 22 Feb 2015 08:52

Singha wrote:He has not even finished 2yrs of his 5yr tenure.


He likely won't complete his tenure.

Knowing MAD, RR is under watch. He may be given a chance to explain himself and improve future behavior but maybe he's used up his three strikes already.

Timing is everything and my guess is MAD only wait for the opportune time to strike. We'll see.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby arshyam » 22 Feb 2015 11:22

^^ Budget saar. Once that's done, the gloves may come off.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Christopher Sidor » 22 Feb 2015 11:54

The current RBI governor has been one of the sanest voices both in the fag end of UPA-II as well as the current ruling dispensation. His has been the only sane voice in the entire current ruling establishment, who has said that the inflation has to come down before we go ahead in a meaningful and sustainable growth path or with cutting rates. It seems that we have forgotten the ill-effects of loose monetary policies which were followed by US Fed and recently which were being followed by PBOC.

Moreover Rajan was making a very valid point. Strong governments may or may not lead to good governance. And there are valid reasons, that governments which are perceived as strong, like Hitler or Mao or Stalin, were disastrous for their countries. These so called strong governments believe in their own infallibility and the concept of, "my way or the highway" irrespective of the fact that the policies that they follow may or may not be sound.

Whether Modi or current ruling dispensation has taken any meaningful steps as far as economy is concerned is open for debate. All they have done so far is photo-op, good for optics but not much of any substance.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Arunkumar » 22 Feb 2015 12:35

RR seems to have deliberately laid the eid to trigger tension and follow up with expulsion. That would probably be followed up with his joining Delhi's fav party. I say let him retain his position and make him release a new Rs 100 note with subhas chandra bose's photo as the watermark.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Suraj » 22 Feb 2015 12:37

Christopher Sidor wrote:Moreover Rajan was making a very valid point. Strong governments may or may not lead to good governance.

He is not entitled to talk about politics, or offer advice while he holds his current position. No central bank chief gets that latitude. Any statement about politics by a central bank head has significant policy implications. It brings into question his own political motives for his monetary policy actions. The only person who will be hurt by his words is himself - from now on he will be seen as a political person, whose policy moves could be a result of both monetary reasons, and his own political ideology.

As things are, the words and actions of a central bank head are carefully scrutinized by dozens of financial companies attempting to judge the direction of policy. It's hard enough to do this when a CB head speaks in abstract monetary language. It's even harder to do when companies try to also add the variable that the CB head is openly political, and therefore may make rate decisions on the basis of ideology, which they cannot quantify.

One could claim that 'it's just a talk'. But that's not the kind of world a central bank leader lives in. Hundreds of billions in transactions occur on the basis of what the market senses are the CB head's plans for monetary policy. A central bank head is therefore obligated to say very little and think very carefully before saying it, because people will parse word for context and future direction.

Essentially, Rajan has significantly undermined his own independent authority and that of the RBI. We talk about how the RBI may be influenced by the government. The right way for RBI to assert its independence is to scrupulously avoid any conversation involving political ideologies. By harming that independence, Rajan has undermined his position as well as that of the organization he's the head of.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby member_28663 » 22 Feb 2015 12:41

Apropos the Raghuram Rajan speech, having read the whole thing, I am unable to understand what the whole controversy is about. He was making a point about political economy, borrowing ideas from Fukuyama. That people somehow connected the Hitler reference to the Modi govt. is beyond ridiculuous.

As for the point about central bankers having to be restrained to avoid upsetting markets, this is mainly a convention followed in the West from Greenspan's time onwards, and does not apply to the same degree in India. I work in the markets and have not seen/heard any talk about this speech for instance. Infact, the reason the Fed is watched so closely is because traders have large positions on the short end of the IR curve and so every pronouncement means a lot of Pnl. This is not yet the case in India. The only way his comments would be hurtful to India's image would be on the rebound i.e. speech interpreted wrongly creates a news story which then gets re-interpreted by traders and fund managers. I have not seen this happen in this instance fortunately.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby member_28663 » 22 Feb 2015 13:00

Would also like to add a comment on his monetary policy. There is no doubt that lower interest rates would help the real economy immediately, especially real estate and infrastructure which sorely need lower borrowing costs. However, the way I see it, he is trying to fix a much bigger and long term problem which is confidence in the rupee.
Due to historical high inflation in our economy (and memories of stock market scams), financial assets are not generally seen by common people as viable assets to hold on to for the long term. People have seen hard assets like real estate and gold hold their value much better in the past and so they prefer to keep ploughing their money into those. This is a major problem for us: despite high savings rates we are a chronically capital starved country because the savings never find their way towards productive assets and instead fuel a wasteful real estate bubble as well us a huge demand for imported gold.

Once we make this psychological shift and get common people to channel their savings into capital makets, it would be a huge step forward for India. With the kind of rupee devaluation we have seen in the past w.r.t real assets, this shift will never happen. Thus i think it's worth keeping a tight monetary bias for some time. Anecdotally, i think this shift is already beginning to happen.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Suraj » 22 Feb 2015 13:02

The lack of the same number of hedged positions dependent on the RBI's head's words does not mean he has the freedom to speak like that. What he can or cannot say is based on his role as a CB head, not the number of positions that are hedged upon his words. Rajan is supposed to bring western professionalism to his position. Instead, his behavior indicates a lack of professionalism that even his less illustrious predecessors could not be accused of.

Francis Fukuyama is a political scientist and commentator. It's his job description to talk about political economy. The same is not part of the job description of any central bank head. RR is welcome to bring out his inner Fukuyama, but once he demits office, not while he's in charge. Rajan's words will hurt him, both because the markets have to assume he's politically partisan, and because the government will question his ideological motives, and obligate him to prove his independence.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Christopher Sidor » 22 Feb 2015 13:31

In the entire speech given by Rajan, can somebody please point out the line or lines where Rajan made any reference or where he equated or compared or drew parallel between Modi and Hitler?

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Suraj » 22 Feb 2015 13:48

He does not need to literally say so. Merely speaking of politics is exceeding his brief . He should have declined the invitation to speak, or at the very least avoided absolutely any reference to the subject, and stuck to monetary policy. It may be banal for the audience concerned, but embellishing it with references to political economists will backfire badly upon him. It's his own credibility and apolitical policy making stance that's now gone, entirely on account of his own actions .

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby member_28663 » 22 Feb 2015 13:53

Suraj,
which part do you find to be political/politically partisan?

As for his job description, I do not know what that is but I have seen other central bankers also make speeches on topics other than monetary policy.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Suraj » 22 Feb 2015 14:09

"Other central bankers also do it" is as weak an argument as "not much money rides on RRs words compared to the U.S. Fed boss' " . Neither of these are mitigating factors.

It is not within the domain of a central bank leader to address the topic of political economy in a public forum. It's particularly inappropriate to say something that can be misinterpreted as hostility towards the ruling party, in a milieu where the current head of government is disparagingly characterized as authoritarian by his political .

The central bankers job revolves around saying analyzing a lot of data and saying very little after much thought . For Rajan to say what he did demonstrates either lack of tact and professionalism, delusions about his own role, or both.

If Rajan wants to be viewed as a great RBI head, he just set himself back a long way by seeking public adulation over doing his work. As to what part I find exceptionable, I've already answered that - all of it. If he wants to be viewed as among the best , he needs to act the part. 'Others do it' or 'didn't cause much damage' are copouts that emphasize that he's not good but just mediocre at his actual job.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby sooraj » 22 Feb 2015 17:26

Rajan disapproves inheritance tax idea
http://www.business-standard.com/budget/article/rajan-disapproves-inheritance-tax-idea-115022200331_1.html

Strongly disapproving the idea of inheritance tax, Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan has advocated a "cultural change" which pulls the rich towards philanthropy or giving back to the society.


"I would argue rather than a blanket inheritance tax, let's change the culture. Make it such that people don't want to leave a lot of wealth for their children," he said while delivering the keynote address at DD Kosambi Festival of Ideas in Panaji over the weekend.


Specifically speaking on inheritance tax idea, he said: "I think rather than bringing people down, our focus should be on taking people up.


"How do we give opportunity to many more people? Inheritance tax only helps the lawyers in the society," he said.


"A dramatic estate tax generates value for lawyers as they figure out ways to hide the estate so that it does not get taxed," he said.


His views come amidst some voices seeking an inheritance tax in the forthcoming Budget, which would mean people may have to pay for inheriting a priced property.


According to the votaries, this ensures the society ceases being aristocratic.


Pointing to the larger play of philanthropies in the Western corporate world, Rajan said the Western world has a better way of dealing with the issue, which is to "shame" the rich into devoting wealth for good causes.


"One thing the West does very well is to shame them into giving it away so that they feel that they are participating in it of their own will.


It is a good way, as now they want to make money because they like to give it away later."


Citing the example of John D Rockefeller, Rajan said that even though the oil maganate made his wealth in an "awful" way, he did a lot good to the mankind though his philanthropic efforts like the University of Chicago and a centre for medical research.


Rajan welcomed the change in India Inc which has led to creation of foundations, schools, colleges and universities.


Rajan also noted that many have publicly taken the Bill Gates pledge of giving back to the society.


óThe central bankers also said the system must "incentivice" the people to create wealth, which in turn has a spillover effect in form of job creation, and stressed that the country needs to respect that for some people leaving some wealth for the kids would be a priority.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Gyan » 22 Feb 2015 18:00

Does the RBI Act mention anything about Great Rocky bhai and Dear Billy baba or discuss Hitler Singh?

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Supratik » 22 Feb 2015 18:09

That is a big boo boo from Rajan. Perhaps he should be promoted to first class now - to BRICS bank president.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Yogi_G » 22 Feb 2015 18:26

The brics bank chief post was won after great difficulty and tussle with the tallels. Brics bank is a lynchpin of the brics based thrust into a multi polar world. Would be quixotic to put a congi loon (albeit very talented) in such an important post.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby KLNMurthy » 22 Feb 2015 19:14

Suraj wrote:
panduranghari wrote:http://rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_SpeechesView.aspx?Id=941

here is the talk. Stop reacting to the news reports. Read directly from RBI.

It's not a good idea for a central banker to make a speech that can be misinterpreted politically. RR seems to position himself as an extra-constitutional voice here. It's really not his place to do that. He has a well defined role, and part of that role is maintaining a studied silence on matters involving politics. This isn't because of a forced gag order, but because such language is parsed by markets as friction between the central bank and the government, which has real implications on the behavior of incoming and outgoing capital. "It's just a talk" is not an acceptable reason; for the sake of propriety, it's important that the central bank leader not put himself in such a position at all, where his words could be misinterpreted at all.

The capital markets may interpret it as "Rajan not interacting well with Finance Ministry, may not cut rates even if circumstaces favour it, because he feels {insert assumption} about GoI". That leads to very real financial consequences for the economy. Like it or not, the central banker's words are keenly parsed by the street for signs about monetary policy in future, specifically the movement of the benchmark rates. At a time when the street favours a rate cut and the RBI Govs stated reasons for keeping rates unchanged sounds have been interpreted different ways, his words here add further noise.

Yes, it was shocking to me that he would go into his "professor of political economy mode" apparently believing that all that is required is for him to make a disclaimer up front that the are not going to hear about interest rates. Come to think of it, he has no business, in his position, delivering even a lecture on interest rates! Formal statement of policy, yes, but a lecture?

I think as a culture our besetting sin is to want to give lectures based on whatever little we think we know, without regard for time, place or consequences.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby KLNMurthy » 22 Feb 2015 19:27

arshyam wrote:^^ Budget saar. Once that's done, the gloves may come off.

Firing the RBI governor will have big consequences--mostly bad--for investment. It is not like firing the foreign secretary. Consequences that would have to be managed with great care and precision.

The government can say it is because of his indiscretion in giving a lecture at all; but most people won't understand why that is a problem, and will instead blather about freedom of speech etc. And it will definitely be spun as Modi being vindictive.

I don't have high hopes for government to manage the departure of Rajan in a minimally costly way.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Christopher Sidor » 22 Feb 2015 19:39

With the Budget only a few moons away there are some of the points for the budget. Though all of these will not be achieved in one budget, it would behoove Modi sarkar to have a look at these. But off course all this has to be done after the core inflation, i.e. core CPI and not WPI, is bought down to a manageable 4-5%.

GAAR (General Anti Avoidance Rule)
In the histrionics or rhetoric of the so called "Tax terrorism" as proclaimed by our Finance Minister a very important point was missed out. What GAAR does is that it prevents tax avoidance by the corporates. This came to light especially due to the Vodafone acquisition of Hutchison holdings assets in India. An acquisition for which Vodafone paid no tax in India. A privilige which is not according to us, the common man. Any asset we buy, be it house, gold or stocks we have to pay a tax. And with the tendency of our ruling class to open up our economy to more foreigners this avoidance will be more prononunced in the days to come.

The scary decline in India's savings rate
Our savings rate has declined substantially, it has reached some 27% of our GDP according to World Bank Data. And this is due to three factors, firstly the jobless growth which we saw in UPAII, secondly the stagnant wages which barely trounced inflation and thirdly the double digit CPI for the most part of UPA rule. The average savings rate as a percentage of our GDP has to be pushed up to ideally reach 33-38% for us to reach 9% growth rate. And most of the money in this case ideally has to be for long term and not short term. In case of UPA what happened was that our long term savings went into toxic and financial WMD products like ULIP, ULPP, etc. IRDA and other regulators allowed products which eroded the wealth of an individual with most of the gains going to middlemen and highly inefficient product structure. This evaporated the very little trust that a lay man had in our non-banking financial sector.

Our Spending more than what we consume
Our current account deficit, which is broadly a measure of what we produce and what we consume has been negative for substantial part of the past decade. This is because we as a nation tend to spend more than we earn. Most of this spending is of dubious utility. We keep diesel prices low so as to please farmers, but the benefits do not go farmers, it goes to those who run SUVs, Diesel Gen-sets and cars running on Diesels. We subsidize Fertilizer, leading to parts of farm lands in Northwestern India becoming toxic. So much so that there is a train which runs between Punjab and Rajasthan which is called the Cancer express.. One way to look at subsidies is to assume that they help the poor. Another way to look at them is the gross inefficiencies and distortions that they create. And if we are thinking that Aadhaar and DBT schemes will help, forget it. Most of this so called money which will be transferred will be fleeced by others or spent on gambling or liquor or tobacco or other ills of the society.

Moving away from Carbon powered economy
We import more than 70% of Hydrocarbons that we consume. This has insidious impact on our Foreign Exchange. We have high ash content in our domestic coal with some estimates pegging ash content in our domestic coal to be as high as 40-45%. Ideally we should have moved towards ULSD and a natural-gas based energy plants. But well let us not cry over the spilt milk that used to pass for UPA's energy policies. The point is to capture this opportunity and move towards Solar, Tidal, Wind and Nuclear. Not shale oil, not shale gas, not Natural Gas, not LNG. We should target that atleast by the end of 10 years, i.e. 2025 we should produce some 35% of our energy needs from these 4 sources. and by 2035 atleast 85% from these sources. And with Nuclear I mean the 3 stage Thorium based nuclear cycle.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby KLNMurthy » 22 Feb 2015 19:40

Suraj wrote:"Other central bankers also do it" is as weak an argument as "not much money rides on RRs words compared to the U.S. Fed boss' " . Neither of these are mitigating factors.

It is not within the domain of a central bank leader to address the topic of political economy in a public forum. It's particularly inappropriate to say something that can be misinterpreted as hostility towards the ruling party, in a milieu where the current head of government is disparagingly characterized as authoritarian by his political .

The central bankers job revolves around saying analyzing a lot of data and saying very little after much thought . For Rajan to say what he did demonstrates either lack of tact and professionalism, delusions about his own role, or both.

If Rajan wants to be viewed as a great RBI head, he just set himself back a long way by seeking public adulation over doing his work. As to what part I find exceptionable, I've already answered that - all of it. If he wants to be viewed as among the best , he needs to act the part. 'Others do it' or 'didn't cause much damage' are copouts that emphasize that he's not good but just mediocre at his actual job.


I would add that even the choice of forum is terrible -- the Panaji Festival of Ideas -- named now for iconic Marxist historian D D Kosambi, and which in the past (IIRC) boasted Tarun Tejpal, with his "lets have free sex" statements as an organizer.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby RamaY » 22 Feb 2015 19:43

Christopher Sidor wrote:Moreover Rajan was making a very valid point. Strong governments may or may not lead to good governance.


Will respond in politics thread...

viewtopic.php?p=1802071#p1802071

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Supratik » 22 Feb 2015 20:13

I think irrespective of his political affiliations he has all the credentials to be BRICS bank president. I don't see how after this kind of statement he can continue working with this govt for another 3 years. I would rather promote him subject to others agreeing. As BRICS bank president he will work at the international level where economic thought matters more than political affiliation. He will have a very different role.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Singha » 22 Feb 2015 20:51

All these festivals want to be a mix of bilderberg davos sunburn Woodstock and burning man.

First two for self important lectures and power broking
Third fourth fifth for music alcohol and free love.

But unlike in west tejpal types were extracting money from sponsors to pay the bills.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby negi » 22 Feb 2015 20:54

Christopher Sidor wrote:Moreover Rajan was making a very valid point. Strong governments may or may not lead to good governance.
Heloooo this is like saying tomorrow sun may or may not rise from the east. Sounds like a biased man saying things out of frustation. :mrgreen:

For an argument's sale under MMS's weak government did this joker deliver good governance ? Pata nahin kahan kahan se aa jate hain.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby SwamyG » 22 Feb 2015 20:57

Suraj wrote:The central bankers job revolves around saying analyzing a lot of data and saying very little after much thought . For Rajan to say what he did demonstrates either lack of tact and professionalism, delusions about his own role, or both.

Third, he is influenced by interests that are not aligned with the present Government or a stooge of breaking-India forces.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby arshyam » 22 Feb 2015 20:59

KLNMurthy wrote:
arshyam wrote:^^ Budget saar. Once that's done, the gloves may come off.

Firing the RBI governor will have big consequences--mostly bad--for investment. It is not like firing the foreign secretary. Consequences that would have to be managed with great care and precision.

Murthy sir, I didn't mean firing of the gov, but a change of role like the gov of the BRICS bank as was rumoured sometime ago. Agree that firing will have repercussions.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby SwamyG » 22 Feb 2015 21:36

rahulsidhu wrote:Apropos the Raghuram Rajan speech, having read the whole thing, I am unable to understand what the whole controversy is about. He was making a point about political economy, borrowing ideas from Fukuyama. That people somehow connected the Hitler reference to the Modi govt. is beyond ridiculuous.

As for the point about central bankers having to be restrained to avoid upsetting markets, this is mainly a convention followed in the West from Greenspan's time onwards, and does not apply to the same degree in India. I work in the markets and have not seen/heard any talk about this speech for instance. Infact, the reason the Fed is watched so closely is because traders have large positions on the short end of the IR curve and so every pronouncement means a lot of Pnl. This is not yet the case in India. The only way his comments would be hurtful to India's image would be on the rebound i.e. speech interpreted wrongly creates a news story which then gets re-interpreted by traders and fund managers. I have not seen this happen in this instance fortunately.

Here is the full speech for the benefit of others: http://scroll.in/article/708502/Full-te ... -direction

In Indian politics, the current situation is that the media and anti-GoI forces would utilize any sound bites or ideas from any personality to drag down the government. Look how Obama's points were used by the media. He clearly at the outset says, he is going to talk about 'political economy'; and he is not talking in vacuum. Why did he bring 'strong government' and not 'weak government'?

If one dismisses conventions because it is from the West, then bulk of the economic model that the World uses is 'Western' in nature. BRFitess for a long time have argued that economics is as much cultural as other activities of a society. It boils down to the fact that 'Individuals' and 'Societies' react differently to economic ideas, practices and activities based on their own cultural values and tradition. RR uses Fukuyama, Huntington, Hitler, Marx - all Western sources.

Any person, in an responsible or influential position has to weigh his words. It is not a Western or Eastern aspect of life, but an Universal. It is touted that some of the former RBI governors prevented great damage to the Indian economy when 2007 crisis started. Even if one were to take his speech with a pinch of salt, and one could accept his brand of economics and ideology he should not have brought a reference to Hitler in his speech.

The only reason I say he should not have brought Hitler is because, it will/can be used by Modi's political opponent. It is fine for RR and Modi to have different ideas on economy and functioning of politics, democracy ityadi. We are adults, and we understand people have differences. When one brings Hitler into a discussion without a necessity, the discussion is going in a totally different direction.

RR should come out and clarify clearly, or else he should step down. Simple.
Last edited by SwamyG on 22 Feb 2015 22:38, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Supratik » 22 Feb 2015 21:38

I won't call him a stooge. These may have been his personal beliefs which he should have kept personal. The Hitler analogy and the majority-minority thing is the same that the left-Congress combo applies to the RSS. Shouldn't have been said when you have to work with a govt made up of the RSS. More importantly it introduces an element of mistrust between the govt and the head of the central bank. The govt is no longer sure if this guy will work in its interest.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Christopher Sidor » 22 Feb 2015 22:09

SwamyG wrote:
rahulsidhu wrote:Apropos the Raghuram Rajan speech, having read the whole thing, I am unable to understand what the whole controversy is about. He was making a point about political economy, borrowing ideas from Fukuyama. That people somehow connected the Hitler reference to the Modi govt. is beyond ridiculuous.

As for the point about central bankers having to be restrained to avoid upsetting markets, this is mainly a convention followed in the West from Greenspan's time onwards, and does not apply to the same degree in India. I work in the markets and have not seen/heard any talk about this speech for instance. Infact, the reason the Fed is watched so closely is because traders have large positions on the short end of the IR curve and so every pronouncement means a lot of Pnl. This is not yet the case in India. The only way his comments would be hurtful to India's image would be on the rebound i.e. speech interpreted wrongly creates a news story which then gets re-interpreted by traders and fund managers. I have not seen this happen in this instance fortunately.

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Even if one were to take his speech with a pinch of salt, and one could accept his brand of economics and ideology he should not have brought a reference to Hitler in his speech.

The only reason I say he should not have brought Hitler is because, it will/can be used by Modi's political opponent. It is fine for RR and Modi to have different ideas on economy and functioning of politics, democracy ityadi. We are adults, and we understand people have differences. When one brings Hitler into a discussion without a necessity, the discussion is going in a totally different direction.

RR should come out and clarify clearly, or else he should step down. Simple.


People have compared Modi to Hitler way before Rajan gave this speech. And they will compare Modi to Hitler even after this speech. That is what Modi has to live with. Just as the Gandhi family members and the Harvard-Cambridge duo or Harvard-Cambridge dream team of UPA have to live with the vitriol that is spewed in their direction. You get what you do.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Supratik » 22 Feb 2015 22:14

Thats not how it works. I won't survive a minute if I run the central bank and start attacking the Gandhi family in a Congress govt.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby KLNMurthy » 22 Feb 2015 22:16

Singha wrote:All these festivals want to be a mix of bilderberg davos sunburn Woodstock and burning man.

First two for self important lectures and power broking
Third fourth fifth for music alcohol and free love.

But unlike in west tejpal types were extracting money from sponsors to pay the bills.

Bilderburg/Davos and burning man are two different kinds of things. Something like Burning Man is an unnatural import to India.

In any country, I think it is disgusting and decadent to mix the two types of things. Only an overrated, shallow and amoral creep like Tejpal would think it is appropriate--IMO. It is disheartening that Rajan would lend his presence to such an event.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Christopher Sidor » 22 Feb 2015 22:39

Supratik wrote:Thats not how it works. I won't survive a minute if I run the central bank and start attacking the Gandhi family in a Congress govt.

So Congress and BJP led government should behave exactly the same way. So why replace one with the other? Let us continue with the so called Harvard and Cambridge dream team who have led us to ruin in the past 5 years of UPA-II.

Moreover Rajan has not attacked Modi or his Government. All that he has done is raised a valid point a strong government may not be an effective government. There is a concept of wasted mandates too.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby SwamyG » 22 Feb 2015 22:44

Christopher Sidor wrote:People have compared Modi to Hitler way before Rajan gave this speech. And they will compare Modi to Hitler even after this speech. That is what Modi has to live with. Just as the Gandhi family members and the Harvard-Cambridge duo or Harvard-Cambridge dream team of UPA have to live with the vitriol that is spewed in their direction. You get what you do.

Whoaa, care to explain your last sentence? It does not matter what others did, saar. If RR did compare then he should quit. If he did not compare, and the reference was a mistake (like he did not think through the consequences and how GoI/Modi's opponents would use his ideas), then he can come out and clarify. This is where the intellectuals from 'political economy' field have to pressurize him to clarify. Thatcher, Indira, Reagan, Churchill, ityadi leaders were all strong no? They ran strong governments. But he did not use them as example, but used Germany to make a point no?
Last edited by SwamyG on 23 Feb 2015 03:20, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby kittigadu » 22 Feb 2015 23:50

Does anybody know if Mr Rajan's twitter account is genuine. He often retweets political/economic articles critical of Modi and his government. Surprisingly garrulous for a RBI governor.
Don't know of any fed governor who behaves similarly.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Prem » 22 Feb 2015 23:54

We just lost 10 years under economic hitman MMS. No harm in keeping eyes open if replacement hitman is sent to do the rest of the job and finish MMS initiated economic Self Hanging.


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