Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
member_28640
BRFite
Posts: 174
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by member_28640 »

suvod wrote:Indian Railways is the perfect case study for how to waste a resource / enterprise through mis-management. Today, in a short while from now, the Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu will present the budget. I'm primarily looking for the following from the budget:

1. Plan / Mechanism to revive the freight traffic and resultant revenue. I expect this govt. to finally shift the focus from passenger traffic to freight.
2. Use the increased revenue from freight to invest in safety & security. And have time-bound implementation plans for the same.
3. No new trains. If there is money, invest in track modernization. Invest in new coaches that are safer and offer better comfort.
4. Engage the "Swachh Bharat" campaign in the trains as well as stations. This is one area which is completely under central control.

Bibek Debroy has published a series of notes on the sate of Railways and what can be done in a monthly column in the Swarajya Mag. Very informative and incisive as always. Posting the link to the first in the series: <http://swarajyamag.com/columns/railways ... etition-i/>
and all your wishes have been granted good sir,
Suresh Prabhu reads your mind
subhamoy.das
BRFite
Posts: 1027
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by subhamoy.das »

Leftist, specially congis, are shouting their heart out that that the land bill is anti-farmer in a obvious attempt to use the issue as a vote bank. But are they not committing a political suicide by opposing the bill which is supposed to generate jobs and development the rural area? Are they trying to do a pan-india Singur? Will it succeed?
Hari Seldon
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9373
Joined: 27 Jul 2009 12:47
Location: University of Trantor

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Hari Seldon »

subhamoy.das wrote:Leftist, specially congis, are shouting their heart out that that the land bill is anti-farmer in a obvious attempt to use the issue as a vote bank. But are they not committing a political suicide by opposing the bill which is supposed to generate jobs and development the rural area? Are they trying to do a pan-india Singur? Will it succeed?
Yes, they'll succeed iff they derail the LAB amendments. Why? Well, because the economic after-effects become identified with the ruling party only. This discussion has political content and we can continue ion the politics dhaga.
suvod
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 87
Joined: 18 Mar 2008 07:28
Location: The Burgh

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by suvod »

^^
So it looks like GopiN Sir. As we were discussing on the railways thread, it is a very balanced budget. Prudence over populism. Well done Mr. Suresh Prabhu.

And now to the big one. I hope the govt realizes that for a country like India it is almost impossible to make everyone happy and still do the right thing. I'm sure even on a not-quite diverse forum like BR we will have multiple opinions on the economy and the budget objectives. Have we done any exercise on this forum as to what would be the 5 or 6 critical asks from the budget? What are some concrete steps that the govt. can plan and implement to

1. Spur growth (and with jobs) and hence demand
2. Control inflation (what is the right level by the way, for a country like India given the state of the economy now?)
3. Remove / reduce supply-side inefficiencies
4. Reduce corruption (can be part of point #3)
5. Improve the HDI (how to start a virtuous cycle of investments in the social sector, I'm primarily concerned about health, education and safety)
member_28640
BRFite
Posts: 174
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by member_28640 »

suvod wrote:^^
So it looks like GopiN Sir. As we were discussing on the railways thread, it is a very balanced budget. Prudence over populism. Well done Mr. Suresh Prabhu.
Yes, and the markets rewarded this by tanking down, again as predicted in the Railways thread. Why does the Sensex have to be such a drama queen?
ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5351
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by ShauryaT »

Liking what I am hearing of the Railways. Indian markets as all markets can be stupid.
panduranghari
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3781
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by panduranghari »

From political thread in GDF
RoyG wrote:The problem is India has a very limited time frame to enact reforms and jump start the economy. What choice does Modi have?
I wonder if you are also alluding to the paucity of funding to implement the agenda that would enable development? Yes the time available to push to much needed reforms is limited from the scope of the duration of the current parliament and also the global economic turmoil makes the availability of time to do things very 'unfair' to the current dispensation.

However, there is a very positive direction the game is moving in terms of Indian economic future.

Some people claim there are shortages of funds to meet all the planned development goals. However, in reality there is no shortage of funds (money). And the money is there within India already.
The global economy in near term will need to be re-capitalised. Dollar settlement overhang is not going to last forever. The problem, currently, is with the need to sustain the global economic hegemony. The current hegemony allows a select few countries to do what they wish. While the other emerging economies have to live off the morsels falling off the high table. Since 2008, there is a change but not a lot. Still people are imputing value to the dollar. The dollar has lost its intrinsic value anyway.
https://econographics.files.wordpress.c ... lar-vs.jpg

The only natural good left to recapitalise the global economy is gold. Gold is a Giffen Good- anything which people buy in more quantity when the price is rising.
In India, there is no shortage of gold. Many tons of it exist both above ground and below. What there is a shortage of RESPECT! RESPECT FOR THE RELIC.

The amount of gold in existence is some 6 billion ounces. At current market valuation this puts it at about $7.2 trillion dollars worth. Thats not enough to capitalise Indian economy, forget the global economy.

Once gold is properly "respected" for the historic repurpose it serves to recapitalize the Indian ergo Global economy ...once it is valued properly as the only available solution to restructure the global monetary engine that fuels progress and keeps civilization from collapsing into a depressionary "dark age" ... there will STILL be NO shortage of the stuff.

But the FLOW will stop ... as thoughts about what it's relative worth is in the new paradigm undergo a transformational period of alignment.

Just as the dollar today is "stronger than death" and yet is destined to be "non savable good" after its intrinsic value is revealed ... so shall gold undergo an inverse revaluation process. This will be harnessed by the government to undertake projects which will be stalled when funds initially run low.

The (necessary) revaluation can happen any time and the event will cause thoughts to change. But the yield whores- paper traders- keep the current game flowing, and keep "systemically important thoughts" in check.

What are savings? In one sense it is deferred present consumption. In another sense it is future consumption. In another sense it is future production. Sovereign debt as a store of savings is dying. 2008 was the proof of that.

What GOI will do is make the foundations solid. Make in India is an initiative which wont really take off until the savings paradigm has changed. The Indian Financial Code made by Justice Srikrishna headed a committee — the Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission (FSLRC) is a vital cog in this wheel. So is Arthakranti.
RamaY
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17249
Joined: 10 Aug 2006 21:11
Location: http://bharata-bhuti.blogspot.com/

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by RamaY »

panduranghari wrote:From political thread in GDF
RoyG wrote:The problem is India has a very limited time frame to enact reforms and jump start the economy. What choice does Modi have?
I wonder if you are also alluding to the paucity of funding to implement the agenda that would enable development? Yes the time available to push to much needed reforms is limited from the scope of the duration of the current parliament and also the global economic turmoil makes the availability of time to do things very 'unfair' to the current dispensation.

However, there is a very positive direction the game is moving in terms of Indian economic future.

Some people claim there are shortages of funds to meet all the planned development goals. However, in reality there is no shortage of funds (money). And the money is there within India already.
+ 1008.

I presented my thoughts on this as far back as 2010 in this thread http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... =24&t=5479
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

I have been looking for more recent data on exports from SEZs lately. Here's something recent:
211 SEZ developers get more time to execute projects
Government has given more time to 211 special economic zone (SEZ) developers during the last three years to execute their projects, Parliament was informed today.

The letter of approval granted to SEZ developer is valid for three years within which “effective steps” are to be taken by the developer to implement the approved project.

“The Board of Approval (BoA) may, on an application by the developer, extend the validity period of the letter of approval. In last three years and current year, 224 developers have sought extension of time for the execution of their projects,” Commerce and Industry Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a written reply to the Rajya Sabha.

“Out of 224 applications, 211 developers have been granted extension of time,” she said.

The BoA, a 19-member inter-ministerial body headed by Commerce Secretary Rajeev Kher, deals with SEZ related issues.

It provides single window clearance mechanism to developers and units in these zones.

The high number of extensions also reflects the losing interest of investors due to reasons including global economic slowdown and imposition of minimum alternate tax (MAT) and dividend distribution tax (DDT) on these zones.

So far, 352 such zones have been notified by the BoA out of which 199 are operational.

Recently, in a BoA meeting, government approved the applications of as many as 56 special economic zone developers to surrender their projects.

Exports from these zones increased from Rs. 22,840 crore ($3.7 billion) in 2005-06 to Rs. 4.94 lakh crore ($83 billion) in 2013-14. The Commerce Ministry is struggling to increase exports as the country’s shipments in the last three years have been hovering around $300 billion level.
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

S&P raises India’s GDP forecasts to 7.9% for 2015-16
Ahead of the Union Budget announcement on Saturday, global rating agency Standard & Poor's Ratings Services revised India’s GDP forecast upwards at 7.9 per cent for the fiscal year ending March 2016 driven by rising investment and low oil prices.

However, the forecast of real GDP growth in the Asia Pacific region has been lowered.

“India should be the Asia-Pacific region's bright spot. We revised our growth forecasts for the country upward, reflecting new official data based on methodological improvements. Standard & Poor's now forecasts GDP growth at 7.9% in the fiscal year ending March 2016, versus 6.2 per cent earlier, and 8.2 per cent in fiscal 2017, from 6.6 per cent previously. Rising investment and low oil prices have been boosting India's growth,” said Paul Gruenwald, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist at S&P.

S&P has lowered its GDP growth forecasts for China, Japan, and the Asian Tiger economies, as per its report titled ‘Stronger US economy and lower oil prices aren't boosting Asia-Pacific growth’.

S&P trimmed GDP growth forecasts for China to 6.9 per cent this year and 6.6 per cent in 2016, from 7.1 per cent and 6.7 per cent, respectively. It believes the official growth target will be about 7 per cent.

For Japan, the agency has lowered our growth forecast to 0.7% this year (from 1.3%) and 1.3% in 2016 (2.1% previously).

“Japan is likely to struggle to achieve a meaningful uplift in growth this year, owing to base effects from the poor fourth-quarter performance in 2014. We believe growth and core inflation can gradually climb higher, now that the Japanese government has postponed the second leg of its consumption tax hike until early 2017," Gruenwald added.
This forecast is for the fiscal year running from April 1 2015 to March 31 2016.
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by pankajs »

Capital Mind ‏@CapitalMind_In 27m27 minutes ago

Fuel subsidies help the rich more than the poor, substantially. Increases as income grows:
Image
Frederic
BRFite
Posts: 435
Joined: 04 Dec 2008 04:49

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Frederic »

panduranghari wrote:From political thread in GDF

The dollar has lost its intrinsic value anyway.
https://econographics.files.wordpress.c ... lar-vs.jpg

The only natural good left to recapitalise the global economy is gold. Gold is a Giffen Good- anything which people buy in more quantity when the price is rising.
Saar, how is the intrinsic value of dollah (or for that matter, any currency) calculated? Could you please explain this in layman's terms to an economy neophyte?
Hitesh
BRFite
Posts: 793
Joined: 04 Jul 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Hitesh »

I contribute that graph with its slope to inflation. With inflation, a thing that cost $1 in 1950 will cost $10 today. See where the graph picks up and that was during the Great Depression and we were dealing with the effects of deflation.

Returning back to gold present its own set of problems and not for the better. Returning back to gold is taking one step forward and then 3 steps backwards. With gold, there is no liquidity, no incentive to make capital investments, etc.
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

The latest Economic Survey of India has been released in the prelude to the budget:
Economic Survey 2014–15
The survey projects slightly higher real GDP growth than S&P, for 2015-16: 8.1% to 8.5%
India in 'sweet spot', economy forecast to top 8% growth
The India Economic Survey, an annual report prepared by the finance ministry, said growth would be between 8.1 and 8.5 percent in the 2015-16 financial year, reaching levels last seen five years earlier.

The ministry said the data showed the timing was right for the reforms to India's economy promised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and to meet his ambitious targets to eradicate poverty.

"India has reached a sweet spot... in which it could finally be launched on a double-digit medium-term growth trajectory," the Economic Survey said, adding there was now scope for "Big Bang reforms".

The upbeat forecast came weeks after the government put growth for the current financial year at 7.4 percent, outpacing China and making India the world's fastest-growing economy, after changing the way it calculates its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The survey also forecast India's consumer inflation would moderate to between five and 5.5 percent in 2015/16, raising hopes for more easing in monetary policies.

The central bank has been under pressure from the government and businesses to unwind high interest rates to boost business borrowing and accelerate growth.
Economic Survey: High on growth, cautious on reform
The Economic Survey for 2014-15, tabled in Parliament on Friday, held out hope for growth in the coming financial year, predicting that India’s gross domestic product, as measured using the recently revised estimates, would grow at a rate between 8.1 and 8.5 per cent. Looking beyond 2015-16, the Survey also argued a “historic moment of opportunity” had been created that could “propel India on to a double-digit (growth rate) trajectory”.

However, the reform agenda the Survey laid out erred on the side of caution rather than being revolutionary. The Survey stated baldly that big-bang reforms would not happen: “Big-Bang reforms as conventionally understood are an unreasonable and infeasible standard for evaluating the government’s reform actions.” Instead, it predicted “a persistent, encompassing, and creative incrementalism”, qualitatively similar to that already on display in the nine months of the Narendra Modi-led central government. Overall, the Survey laid out a coherent, if restrained, policy agenda that differed in significant ways from the one currently being implemented.

The incremental GDP growth for 2015-16 over 2014-15 was estimated to be 0.6 to 1.1 percentage points, and was based on four factors. First, what the Survey described as reforms conducted by the new government — these include such items as diesel price deregulation, higher caps for foreign direct investment in defence and the coal ordinance — would boost growth. Second, it was expected lower fuel prices would decrease costs in the economy and moderate inflation. Third, the hoped-for monetary easing would stimulate investment and encourage household spending in interest-sensitive sectors like consumer durables. Finally, the monsoon is projected to be better than last year’s.
Traditional economy watchers and other interested posters are welcome to search and post more news and discuss. We live in interesting times now.
Vamsee
BRFite
Posts: 685
Joined: 16 Mar 2001 12:31

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Vamsee »

India's per hectare yield in best states is lower than some African nations : Eco Survey
in case of chickpeas, the per hectare yield is highest in Andhra Pradesh at 1,439 kilograms, but this is far lower than the average yield of Ethiopia which is 1,663 kilograms.

In paddy, too, the survey shows that the per hectare yield in Punjab, which is considered to be the highest in the country is just around 3,952 kilograms, far lower than China’s average yield of 6,661 kilograms.

Maize yield in Tamil Nadu is around 5,372 kilograms, which is lower than the average yield of USA, which is 8,858 kilograms, on the same lines, rapeseed yield in Gujarat, the best state in the country, is around 1,723 kilograms, which is much lower than 3,588 of United Kingdom
he survey calls for a National Common Market to ensure better and uniform price for agriculture commodities, rationalization of subsidies and re-assessing the role of state-run Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR), to separate, research, education and extension.
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

The following article makes it clear where the issue with the private sector lies: they built out a lot of capacity until 2011, but growth and demand stalled, leaving them with red on their balance sheets. Now theyr'e slowly utilizing that capacity, but are behind on paying down debt and cannot complete their projects without lowering their existing borrowing load somehow:
Stalled projects down to 7% of GDP
Stalled projects, a key reason for a slide in gross fixed capital formation in the past few years, totalled Rs 8.8 lakh crore (7 per cent of gross domestic product) at the end of December 2014. But, the stalled projects were down to 7 per cent of GDP, compared with 8.3 per cent a year ago.

Of the total stalled projects, Rs 7 lakh crore worth of projects were in the private sector, and the rest in the public sector. Though the numbers might seem large, clearing only 100 of the projects will address 83 per cent of stalled projects by value, the survey notes.

Data clearly distinguish the reasons for stalling of private- and public-sector projects. While the stalled ones in the private sector are due to unfavorable market conditions, regulatory hurdles are the cause for a majority of public-sector stalled projects.

But with stalled projects severely affecting the balance sheets of companies, as well as public-sector banks, it has impaired their ability to launch fresh investments. So, the Survey notes that the burden of kick-starting the investment cycle in the short run lies on the public sector even though the private sector remains key to the rapid delivery of high-quality infrastructure, .

Thus, the Survey advocates the need to restructure the PPP framework to revive interest in infrastructure and bring pension and insurance funds on board. One proposal the survey moots is setting up a high-powered independent renegotiation committee, in line with suggestion from which many in industry.

Though some experts have suggested a new model to kick-start the investment cycle, where the public sector builds assets and transfers it to the private sector for maintenance and operation, the Survey suggests this might not be the best option, as separating construction and maintenance will provide an incentive to raise profits by cutting corners during construction. For example, in highway projects, maintenance costs depend significantly on construction quality.

The Survey suggests a more practical approach will be to experiment with different models. For one, bids for port projects could be on an annual fee basis, with full tariff flexibility. Another, for electricity generation, bids could be in two parts, with a variable charge based on normative efficiency or determined by regulators, and a capacity charge.
The government is very much on the ball on the matter, and understands what it takes for growth to pick up, and is working on solutions. Already, with some early finetuning, growth is estimated to touch 8% next year. That's much higher than the previously estimated levels of 6-7% for next year. If they implement policies effectively and kickstart the investment cycle, we'd be looking at 10-12% annual real GDP growth rate around 2018-19, approximately doubling GDP over this administration's term. The Federal Budget would also rise from the current ~$290 billion to around $550-600 billion then, and defence spending potential of around $80 billion, assuming spending/GDP remains fixed.
gakakkad
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4667
Joined: 24 May 2011 08:16

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by gakakkad »

RBS to end operations in India, 24 other countries

http://www.livemint.com/Companies/WQci4 ... ource=copy
gakakkad
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4667
Joined: 24 May 2011 08:16

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by gakakkad »

as frank sinatra said..

Image

India recovering, not surging The Economic Survey said the Indian economy has hit a sweet spot as a political mandate for reforms and a benign external environment can propel the economy to a double-digit growth trajectory

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/EFVZX0 ... ource=copy
gakakkad
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4667
Joined: 24 May 2011 08:16

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by gakakkad »

more on #acchedin

Economic Survey 2015: Recruiters expect attrition to hit a 2-year high in next six months on better job prospects


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst

MUMBAI: India Inc had better beware. The next six months may see a surge in attrition rates to a two-year high across sectors. Better growth prospects, as highlighted in Friday's Economic Survey, and post-appraisal job switches look like they'll lead to an abrupt shift in employee loyalties.

"Companies need to be ready for attrition May-June onwards and it will be 20% higher than the past two years. Hiring in BFSI (banking, financial services and insurance) and consumer (companies) wil ..



Telecom auction: Ravi Shankar Prasad sees aggressive bids; may fetch over Rs 1 lakh crore


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst
negi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13112
Joined: 27 Jul 2006 17:51
Location: Ban se dar nahin lagta , chootiyon se lagta hai .

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by negi »

Birathers do not worry about shortage of funds, Coal block auctions are fetching awesome returns. Didn't you listen to PM ji's response in question hour yesterday ? Just auction value of 18 blocks out of a total of 204 was more than the total worth of all the blocks estimated by CAG.
SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 36424
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by SaiK »

ChandraV wrote:Ag...Agriculture contributes 15% to nation's GDP, and employs 55% of population. This is where the problem is. It hits you in the face.
I'd expect to bump up 15 to 25% of agri to nation's GDP and reduce people employed in it from 55% to 30% by increasing make-in-india industrial products for farming.
SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 36424
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by SaiK »

http://www.firstpost.com/budget/budget- ... 27063.html
7 things one can expect from Arun Jaitley's budget
Virendra
BRFite
Posts: 1211
Joined: 24 Aug 2011 23:20

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Virendra »

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan uvacha -
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 403627.cms
BENGALURU: RBI governor Raghuram Rajan said technology was replacing low-skilled jobs in Anglo-American countries and education was the barrier for the middle-class involved in routine activities to take up high-skilled jobs.

"With the evaporation of such jobs, one would ideally want the middle to move to high-skilled jobs but there is the big barrier of education," he said. Rajan said the growing inequality in Anglo-American countries was not just in the outcome, but in education itself. He attributed the rise of parties from both the Left and the Right to the eroding faith of the middle class in the market economy.

Rajan was delivering the Sri Vithal N Chandavarkar Memorial Lecture at the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) in Bengaluru on Friday.

Rajan traced the development of the world economy from the time of the Great Depression. He noted that inflation was the first demon the modern economy faced and how the Anglo-American approach to fighting it was different from that of the rest of Europe, and how both were met with successes for a while. The Anglo-American approach was to make the economy more competitive by breaking the cartels and liberalization.

In contrast, Europe preferred a more gentle approach to tackle inflation with a lot more state participation and intervention. But both are now facing problems. The Anglo-American approach has led to severe inequalities. In Europe, money was spent in expanding government and providing pensions but not in creating jobs.
Regards,
Virendra
SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 36424
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by SaiK »

there is nothing new or unknown to what he is saying the we already know
Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21233
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Prem »

Rupesh
BRFite
Posts: 967
Joined: 05 Jul 2008 19:14
Location: Somewhere in South Central India

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Rupesh »

Only 246.7K crores for defence. I was expecting more.
MNREGA up by 5K Cr. Does not make sense.
Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23387
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Austin »

Rupesh wrote:Only 246.7K crores for defence. I was expecting more.
MNREGA up by 5K Cr. Does not make sense.
How much is Defence Exp in USD billion ?
hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5168
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by hanumadu »

Austin wrote:
Rupesh wrote:Only 246.7K crores for defence. I was expecting more.
MNREGA up by 5K Cr. Does not make sense.
How much is Defence Exp in USD billion ?
40 billion USD
hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5168
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by hanumadu »

SaiK wrote:
ChandraV wrote:Ag...Agriculture contributes 15% to nation's GDP, and employs 55% of population. This is where the problem is. It hits you in the face.
I'd expect to bump up 15 to 25% of agri to nation's GDP and reduce people employed in it from 55% to 30% by increasing make-in-india industrial products for farming.
WTF are you talking? You want absolute agricultural out put to grow but not as a percentage of the GDP. Manufacturing and Services should grow at a more rapid rate and must be bulk of our GDP.
SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 36424
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by SaiK »

can't talk to you if you are agitated without logical reasoning.

it is easier to increase industries and services towards agri services than some manufacturing and services sector taking over the share of the gdp.

biggest roadblocks of doing business is roads, transportation, guaranteed delivery and tax. infrastructure can't be injected in a jiffy.. it takes about 5 years to establish infrastructure projects. from energy to roads.. unless we do this, no WTF-er in the world will invest in doing business with India. China will ship things in 24 hours wheres India will struggle to move thru roads for 24 days.

whereas, I can easily move farming products, industrialized farming, irrigation systems, reduced labor and increased machinery to farming, etc, with existing infra.

well.. you gotta think more, and ask less

===

btw, the budget didn't say anything big on privitization.. a big negative for me. no big bang innovative plans, but other than that, everything looks positive and futuristic. infra+energy+roads are basic blocks to industry output. mandatory, but it can only be a road map.

bring more private into services, and increase more regulatory gov controls.

have to read more fine details to say more.
SSundar
BRFite
Posts: 626
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by SSundar »

This budget is evolutionary in a boring, bureaucratic way. Nothing major to complain about. Nothing to dance in the streets about either.
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by pankajs »

Saurav Jha ‏@SJha1618 40m40 minutes ago New Delhi, Delhi

Once I see the CAPEX given to the IAF for aircraft and engines in this budget I'll take a call on whether Rafale is going through or not.
What I had stated before and on the face of it seems negative for Rafale. BUT don't go just by the defense allocation for GOI ways are strange ...
member_28722
BRFite
Posts: 333
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by member_28722 »

Budget of missed opportunities

Salaried folks
1.day to day coats are already at least 10-15% more than same time last year
2. Rail fares will now fluctuate per fuel prices and crude prices are already beginning to go up again
3. Freight rates are up so some costs will also go up
4. Service tax has gone up so expect all food and entertainment expenses to go up
While all this is lightens our pocket there is no change in tax slabs
The new provisions in travel and medical allowances does not offset these expenses by much

Big Decisions
No big bang reforms in the budget. With Lok Sabha 4 more years away this was a chance to take some bold decisions.
Sadly no ground altering decisions

Good to see more investment in infrastructure, medical and better facilitation of ecommerce

Expected to see a larger hike in defense funding. Disappointing

Missed opportunity to come down strongly on Ponzi schemes

There are many more points but these stood out for me
johneeG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3473
Joined: 01 Jun 2009 12:47

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by johneeG »

SSundar wrote:This budget is evolutionary in a boring, bureaucratic way. Nothing major to complain about. Nothing to dance in the streets about either.
Seems like a very ordinary budget. So far, this modi govt seems underwhelming in most aspects.
nawabs
BRFite
Posts: 1637
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by nawabs »

Is this correct - service tax has been raised from 12.36% to 14% and there is an additional 2% swach bharat cess on services. Right?
negi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13112
Joined: 27 Jul 2006 17:51
Location: Ban se dar nahin lagta , chootiyon se lagta hai .

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by negi »

Issue with Indian policy making is it is very slow take for example the IT tax slabs , idiots need to realize that with 6th and now 7th pay commission due to take effect the old tax slabs make no sense you are taxing a person who makes say 10 lakhs per annum as well as someone who makes 1 cr per annum at same rate if this is not policy paralysis then what is ?
gakakkad
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4667
Joined: 24 May 2011 08:16

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by gakakkad »

Really bold budget

the Good steps

1) gold monetization
2) reduction corporate tax to 25%
3) replacing wealth tax with a 2% surcharge
4) nrega focus on skill development instead of the usual bank transfers
5) clear date of GST implementation ...1st april 2016 GST will be implemented
6) lots of scholarships and aiims and iims
7) Benami Property Transaction bill
8)Custom duty on raw materials and intermediaries to be reduced
9) "- Individual tax payer will benefit to the extent Rs. 4,44,200/- from exemptions announced"
10)Tax on Technical Services reduced to 10% from 25%
11) direction on bankruptcy laws and courts...
12) - 5 Ultra Mega power projects, of 4000 MW announced
13) doing away with FII and FDI and replacing em with composite caps
14) public dispute settlement scheme..
15) Regulatory reform law for infrastructure development
16) direction for cashless economy

the seemingly bad

service tax increase...but that would be offset by reduction in custom duty for raw material, reduction in corporate tax and central excise ..this is actually in the direction of GST...because GST is expected to be in 16% range...

the somewhat disappointing aspect ..

1) no clear direction on direct cash transfer of subsidies.
2) no roadmap for subsidy reduction
3) we need to lessen social sector expenses for the time being ...finmin seems to be doing the opposite ...who knows there minght be some return of investment...
4) no clear disinvestment framework..i mean divestment is surely happening...but we need more specifics...

overall the best budget in decades...rate it 8/10..would have been 10/10 if NREGA expenditure reduced instead of increase..direct cash transfer of subsidies..and phased reduction aand revision in subsidies...but not everything can be done...there is minimal populism...

the growth with surge after this watershed budget...

anticipating suraj ,jhujar etcs comments...
negi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13112
Joined: 27 Jul 2006 17:51
Location: Ban se dar nahin lagta , chootiyon se lagta hai .

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by negi »

duplicate
Last edited by negi on 28 Feb 2015 13:31, edited 1 time in total.
negi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13112
Joined: 27 Jul 2006 17:51
Location: Ban se dar nahin lagta , chootiyon se lagta hai .

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by negi »

Following are the tax slabs of past years if you look at the tax slab of 2014-15 we haven't made any change since 2010 aside from 2 lakh increase in last slab. We need to have more tax slabs to keep up with current income levels.

http://gsoftnet.blogspot.in/2011/11/las ... -from.html

May be 30% slab should be from 15 lakh to 30 and then for group in 30-80 we should have 35% tax and for group beyond that about 40% tax.
The 2.5 to 5 lakh slab should be just 5% instead of 10% and 5-10 group should only pay 15% instead of 20%.

The blood sucking policies of Congressi mofos haven't been touched and that is a huge disappointment for me.
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Post by Suraj »

Are people talking about the same budget just presented ? It is very much reformist. Vague references are made about missed expectations. Please explain what it is you expected. Here are some great measures announced in the budget:
* GST on track for April 1 2016
* Monetize some of the gold holdings in the form of our own govt issued gold coins. Very good move, that should have occurred decades ago.
* RBI's powers reduced. Debt management will be handled by a government agency, both for domestic and external debt.
* Uniform bankruptcy code in place within a year, comparable to US Chapter 11 process. Excellent news, and a very important piece of the puzzle. Keeps stalled projects from holding up assets and production base.
* While IT exception was unchanged from Rs.2.5 lakh, many deductions have been provided for other items, totalling Rs.4.5 lakh if used. This is much better than a fixed deduction.
* Wealth tax abolished, replaced with a progressive tax surcharge for incomes over Rs.1 crore. This will generate 10x as much per year as wealth tax.
* Move towards cashless transactions and benami transaction bill to transform black economy into white.
* Rs.1.25 lakh crore ($21 billion) in public spending including Rs.70000cr in capital investment.
* Emphasis on replacing subsidies with direct cash transfer. Economic survey underlined how subsidies benefit the rich more than the poor, and that cash transfers are more effective.
* Nationwide social security net in the form of accident, disability and life insurance coverage. Extremely important for those living a marginal existence.
* Simplified corporate tax structure. Lower rates, fewer exemptions means better compliance and more revenues.

Would those who find the budget boring explain what they expected ?

Hah, gakakkad also noticed the gold monetization item. Why am I not surprised :)
Post Reply