Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

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Sanjay
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Sanjay » 13 Jul 2015 00:04

Suraj and other experts on this forum, would anyone care to comment on the views put forward by SA Aiyar and Surjit Bhalla in regard to income poverty in India as detailed in the articles above ?

Your insight is always excellent and your views will be much appreciated.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Suraj » 13 Jul 2015 00:07

Sanjay wrote:Suraj and other experts on this forum, would anyone care to comment on the views put forward by SA Aiyar and Surjit Bhalla in regard to income poverty in India as detailed in the articles above ?

Your insight is always excellent and your views will be much appreciated.

Please quote the articles here.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Melwyn » 13 Jul 2015 05:36

Trinamool backs govt, says GST is good for the nation

NEW DELHI: Trinamool Congress on Sunday came out in strong support of the government's ambitious GST bill, which is being scrutinized by a parliamentary committee, saying the measure was "good for the states, good for the Centre and good for the nation".

"GST (Goods and Services Tax) is a commitment we have made in our manifesto. We believe the bill should be passed in the monsoon session," Trinamool leader Derek O'Brien said.

The support from West Bengal's ruling party is significant as the Narendra Modi government is keen to see the bill being adopted by the Rajya Sabha select committee at the earliest so that it can be considered by the upper House of Parliament in the upcoming session beginning on July 21.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby member_27845 » 13 Jul 2015 05:54

IIP is calculated on volume basis IIRC , so there could be some difference betweeen the volume growths reflected by IIP whereas the tax collections might capture any price increases ( inflation effect ) and hence be more , so it's possible that both figures might be right - JMT

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby TSJones » 13 Jul 2015 12:33

resistance in India to paper gold.......

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/indians-p ... 34369.html

they want the jewelry.


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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Atri » 13 Jul 2015 14:02

TSJones wrote:resistance in India to paper gold.......

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/indians-p ... 34369.html

they want the jewelry.


Not just jewellery but also solid hallmarked gold-coins, plates, bricks so on and so forth. Better than worthless paper-gold.

as they say in my village - kabja sachha, jhagDa jhuta (the only worthwhile object in this world is one in your actual physical possession. dispute is worthless).

I would certainly invest my spare-money (after other options) in buying and storing up gold and a good lock and safe to keep it (either in bank or at home). Contrary to popular opinion, I do not think people have qualms in selling off gold jewellery except the ornaments of sentimental value. Lot of people buy gold coins and plates as a longterm investment.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby a_bharat » 13 Jul 2015 15:09

If and only if the government declares a policy of "no questions asked -- now or in future" for gold deposits, people owning it in large quantities come forward and make these deposits in any significant way. A lot of black money is invested in gold. The country can gain significantly if this money is brought into the system, instead of lying idle. The government is probably afraid of being accused of turning a blind eye on the black money issue if it shows necessary flexibility on gold deposits.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby srin » 13 Jul 2015 22:37

To me, there is one very good reason to buy some gold. As insurance, when there is an economic collapse and Govt isn't trust-worthy. Most of my investment is in equity MF, but I don't mind the occasional gold buy. That's also why I'd never go for Gold ETF or any exchange scheme. Don't trust the Govt too much.

Anyway, SHQ and I went to buy some around end of last year. There is a 3-letter abbreviation jeweller chain in Jayanagar. The SHQ identified a piece and I said I wanted to pay by credit card. They said "no - that's not possible, only cash accepted for more than Rs. 10K" and looked at me like I'm some strange animal. I walked out because I didn't like their attitude. We then went to another store, where they ask for ID if you pay by card (debit/credit) but nothing if you pay by cash.

And then, Govt wonders why people don't go for their exchange schemes !

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby member_29058 » 13 Jul 2015 23:06

http://www.rediff.com/business/special/ ... 150707.htm
Modi's big Make-in-India problem: Fewer factory jobs

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi pushes his Make-in-India manufacturing plan and factory output rebounds, new data indicate two disquieting trends.

One, there is a slowdown in employment in the formal, organised sector (which in any case employs only 12 per cent of India’s labour force), the prime staging ground of Modi’s programme. Data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Indian factories show that more than 400,000 people lost their jobs during the financial year 2012-13.

Two, this slowdown hides a larger, long-term trend: India Inc is automating and squeezing more output from its workers and so needs fewer of them.

While India had 222,120 operational industrial units during 2012-13, according to the Annual Survey of Industries (ASI), an increase of 2 per cent per cent from 217,554 units in 2011-2012; people engaged in factories declined from 13.43 million to 12.95 million – a drop of 3.6 per cent (480,000).

This cannot be a welcome development, given the focus on employment of Modi’s Make-In-India programme, under which the Prime Minister wants manufacturing to account for at least 25 per cent of GDP from the current level of 16 per cent of GDP.



“Moreover, factors such as cumbersome product market regulations and infrastructural bottlenecks have also adversely affected the growth of the manufacturing sector,” the study said. “The two new factors which have become increasingly important in constraining the growth of organised manufacturing are the difficulties in securing environmental clearances and acquiring land.”

Globally, India is the 3rd largest employer in manufacturing, after China and the United States, according to this report by United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO). That’s an improvement from the 8th position in 1970 and 5th in 1990.


Image

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Suraj » 13 Jul 2015 23:40

That article presents an imcomplete picture. The problem is that GoI does not have useful labour data. Bloomberg wrote about it just a couple of days back - they're trying to fix the data collection system so labour/employment data can be tracked on a monthly basis. Right now the data available is mostly one year old.
India Might Finally Get Jobs Data That Economists Can Use
In India, unemployment data are more useful to historians than economists.

While China is joining the U.S. and Brazil in moving toward monthly figures to take the pulse of their economies, the latest jobs numbers in India are at least a year old. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration is now weighing a proposal to start work on a quarterly report.

“That’s something that would aid significantly, particularly in an economy where you know that domestic demand remains the key driver,” said Shubhada Rao, an economist at Yes Bank Ltd. “The entire crux of the matter is how accurate is the measurement, and for India, we have some way to go.”

A quarterly release would be another step in the modernization of India’s economic policy making. A new consumer price index, an inflation target for the central bank and gross domestic product calculations that meet global standards are all bringing India into the 21st century.

More frequent jobs data would assist central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan in gauging slack in the economy. It will also help assess Modi’s pledge to add jobs for millions of youth about to enter one of the world’s largest labor markets, a promise that propelled him to a sweeping election win last year.

Inefficient data collection and widespread informal employment make it tough to measure workers in India. Sources are scattered, with seven federal agencies publishing reports, according to a 2014 analysis by the Statistics Ministry.

Its latest benchmark report, published every five years, surveyed more than 100,000 households and 450,000 people. It pegged the jobless rate at anywhere from 2.2 percent to 5.6 percent depending on four statistical approaches.

More recent findings, published in January using data obtained between January and July 2014, estimate unemployment at 4.9 percent. That’s from the Ministry of Labour, which started in 2010 to publish yearly assessments to better gauge the impact of the global financial crisis.

In other words, current employment data is basically noise. It doesn't really help GoI now, and inferences made from it are worthless as well. Fixing it so that there's monthly hiring or job loss data is an important requirement.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby nachiket » 13 Jul 2015 23:46

Moreover, factors such as cumbersome product market regulations and infrastructural bottlenecks have also adversely affected the growth of the manufacturing sector,” the study said. “The two new factors which have become increasingly important in constraining the growth of organised manufacturing are the difficulties in securing environmental clearances and acquiring land."


Getting environmental clearances has definitely become easier after the NDA took power, so we'll see it's effects soon enough.
As far as land acquisition is concerned, is the Land Bill now essentially dead in the water, or is there still some chance of getting it through?

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Vayutuvan » 13 Jul 2015 23:46

trained manpower who can take instructions for complex semi-automated manufacturing is the problem in India. Increasing ITIs by the bushel, retraining and like measures will yield better results than opening up no-staff hole-in-the wall engg. colleges at every corner of towns - big and small.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Rahul M » 14 Jul 2015 00:08

data used is 2 years old.

edit. meant to post this after the post by manoj, but posts since then have clarified the issue.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby A_Gupta » 14 Jul 2015 01:42

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/ind ... s-can-use/
India Might Finally Get Jobs Data That Economists Can Use
In India, unemployment data are more useful to historians than economists.

While China is joining the U.S. and Brazil in moving toward monthly figures to take the pulse of their economies, the latest jobs numbers in India are at least a year old. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration is now weighing a proposal to start work on a quarterly report.

“That’s something that would aid significantly, particularly in an economy where you know that domestic demand remains the key driver,” said Shubhada Rao, an economist at Yes Bank Ltd. “The entire crux of the matter is how accurate is the measurement, and for India, we have some way to go.”

A quarterly release would be another step in the modernization of India’s economic policy making. A new consumer price index, an inflation target for the central bank and gross domestic product calculations that meet global standards are all bringing India into the 21st century.

More frequent jobs data would assist central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan in gauging slack in the economy. It will also help assess Modi’s pledge to add jobs for millions of youth about to enter one of the world’s largest labor markets, a promise that propelled him to a sweeping election win last year.

Right now proxy indicators suggest a weak jobs market.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Suraj » 14 Jul 2015 02:23

Rahul M wrote:data used is 2 years old.

edit. meant to post this after the post by manoj, but posts since then have clarified the issue.

THREE years old. Data is from 2012-13, at the nadir of the stagnant period. We're currently in the 2nd quarter of fiscal 2015-16 . Policymaking is very difficult when the newest employment data one has is 3 years old. That's why GoI is trying to make a significant jump to at least quarterly jobs data, and then enhance that to monthly data like advanced economies track.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Suraj » 14 Jul 2015 03:57

Centre hopes to commission 47% of 258 stalled projects in 2015-16
* A majority of the projects expected to be commissioned this year will be in the power sector numbering around 30, followed by roads at 20 and petroleum at 10
* 87 projects are expected to be commissioned after March 2016, while 51 projects do not have any firm commissioning date
* The total investments in stalled projects have come down from around 8-9 per cent of GDP (according to the old series) three years back to around 7 per cent as on December 2014

RBI may cut rate by 0.25% next month: BofA-ML
The Reserve Bank is likely to cut benchmark interest rate by 0.25 per cent in its next month's policy review if monsoon rains remain normal, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said today.

In its research report, the brokerage firm said lending rate cuts, rather than reforms, hold the key to an immediate "cyclical recovery" by end-2015 for the Indian economy.

"If rains are normal, we expect the RBI to cut 25 basis points on August 4," it added.RBI, in its last policy review on June 2, had cut the repo rate by 0.25 per cent for the third time this year to spur investment and growth, but hinted that there may not be any more cuts in the near term.

"We continue to emphasise that lending rate cuts hold the key to a cyclical recovery in second half of 2015," Indranil Sengupta, chief economist India at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a research note.

Monsoon was above normal in June with 25 per cent excess rainfall despite a late arrival and a drought-like prediction.

BofA-ML said that a good June monsoon is no guarantee for a normal monsoon as it accounts for only 15.2 per cent of the seasonal rainfall.

Agri mkt chews the cud over rigid APMC rules
The proposed National Agriculture Market (NAM), where farmers and buyers will sell and purchase their product through an electronic platform, is unlikely to notch up significant gains unless issues related to taxation structure in mandis, interstate movement of goods and uniform gradation of products is sorted out.

The concept has been in the making for a long time, but took concrete shape earlier this month, when the Cabinet cleared a proposal to set up the National Common Electronic Market with an initial allocation of Rs 200 crore to be spent over a period of five years, starting from 2015-16. The market is expected to become operational by December this year.

These mandis, which want to participate in the electronic platform and avail the central grant, need to fulfil three criteria, which are: Put in place e-auction platform for price discovery of agricultural produce, provide a single licence valid across the state and single-point levy of market fee, the Cabinet decision said.

The objective is to iron out the price differentials that exist across the country by curbing the tendency to hoard, which in the final analysis could lead to a moderation of food inflation.

However, to achieve this goal, the country's antiquated laws governing purchase and sale of farm products across the mandis, commonly known as Agriculture Produce Marketing Acts (APMCs) need to be altered, a process which has gone nowhere since it was first thought of, about a decade back.

The limited objective of transparent pricing for agricultural commodities too, will depend a great deal on how responsive state governments are, to the new proposal. The country has 2,477 principal mandis and 4,843 sub-markets created by the APMCs. With a corpus of Rs 200 crore to be spent over three years, the plan is to link nearly 585 major mandis in the first phase.

Agricultural procurement reform, though tortuous and difficult, has the potential to dramatically reform the primary sector.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Vipul » 14 Jul 2015 04:20

Centre hopes to commission 47% of 258 stalled projects in 2015-16.

Almost 47 per cent of the 258 stalled major central infrastructure projects, valued at Rs 1,000 crore are expected to be commissioned in the current financial year, a government analysis shows.

A majority of the projects expected to be commissioned this year will be in the power sector, numbering around 30, followed by roads at 20 and petroleum at 10.

Eight projects belonging to Indian Railways are expected to be commissioned in 2015-16, data furnished during a review meeting on major infrastructure projects held at the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) sometime ago show. They were made public recently.

A majority of the projects expected to be commissioned this year will be in the power sector numbering around 30, followed by roads at 20 and petroleum at 10.

87 projects are expected to be commissioned after March 2016, while 51 projects do not have any firm commissioning date
The total investments in stalled projects have come down from around 8-9 per cent of GDP (according to the old series) three years back to around 7 per cent as on December 2014

The meeting was coordinated by the NITI Aayog. About 87 projects are expected to be commissioned after March 2016, while 51 projects do not have any firm commissioning date, data showed.

Total investments in stalled projects have come down from around eight to nine per cent of GDP (according to the old series) three years ago to around seven per cent as on December 2014.

Of this, the share of private sector was 5.5 per cent of the GDP, while that of the public sector was hardly 1.4 per cent as in third quarter of 2014-15. Time overrun in the infrastructure projects stretched from one year to 20 years.

Officials said in the meeting it was decided to identify the top 100 stalled projects for speedy execution as it will address 83 per cent of investment.

In the new and renewable energy sector, the government has set a target for enhancing solar energy from 3,000 Mw to 100,000 Mw for solar by 2022, for wind to 60,000 Mw from 22,000 Mw, and from 7,000 Mw to 15,000 Mw from other sources.

The Centre plans to make 26,000 km of new roads under the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) in 2015-16. The total roads constructed under this in 2014-15 were 36,883 km.

The target for rural electrification has been pegged at 3,500 villages in 2015-16. The total achievement in 2014-15 was 1,465 villages. The government plans to provide broadband connectivity to 600 million households by 2020. At present, about 94 million households have broadband connectivity.

Under the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchaee Yojana (PMKSY), the Centre plans to create additional irrigation potential of 600,000 hectares in 2015-16, and bring an extra 300,000-400,000 hectares under command area development during the year.

As part of the Deendayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana, 5,802 villages will be provided power by 2018-19. On coal, total domestic production is expected to be around 700 million tonnes in 2015-16. In crude oil, the target production for 2015-16 is 37.05 million tonnes. In railways, which have the worst record in terms of delays in completion, the government has decided to directly monitor 15 of the 84 projects valued at over Rs 1,000 crore that are delayed.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby kmkraoind » 14 Jul 2015 09:42

Foxconn to build up to 12 factories and employ 1m in India - James Crabtree in FT.com

But analysts said the group’s Indian expansion signalled a broader shift in which Foxconn would look to move low-end manufacturing from China to India, while seeking to supply companies targeting India’s domestic market, such as Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi.

“This affirms what people have been saying, namely that manufacturing companies that are big in China are seeking other places to produce, and in particular India,” says Arun Maira, the former chairman of Boston Consulting Group, the professional services firm, in India.

“So this is a very significant move for Foxconn, but also for India itself, because Foxconn is an exemplar of the type of large-scale manufacturing facilities, which are well entrenched into global supply chains, that India needs to attract.”

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Uttam » 14 Jul 2015 18:20

The CPI is inching up. Those who castigated Dr Rajan for not dropping interest rates should realize that inflation is like a huge container ship with enormous inertia. The policy makers have to be very careful while changing interest rates otherwise they risk changing inflation expectation for a very long duration. All the talk about gold monetization is futile if we don't inflation expectations. People who buy gold are not fools. They know that in last 10 years their real returns from bank deposits have been close to zero or negative because of inflation. They buy gold to protect themselves from these negative or zero real returns. Managing inflation expectations will have a much bigger impact on weaning away public from gold.

The growth is stalled not because of interest rates but because of faltering global growth and debt overhang (excessive indebtedness from past). Dropping interest rates will have all most no effect on these. Dropping interest rates too soon creates risks of raising inflation expectations and negative real returns. Therefore a very cautious approach is warranted.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Suraj » 14 Jul 2015 19:41

June CPI was driven by food price inflation, which in turn was driven by dry conditions preceding the monsoon. Further, there's a divergence between CPI and WPI that puts into question exactly what IS happening on the price front:
Retail inflation in June at nine-month high of 5.40%
The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation rose to nine-month high of 5.40 per cent in June, on the back of increased rate of price rise in food items, data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) showed on Monday.

The CPI inflation for May 2015 was 5.01 per cent, while it had stood at 6.77 per cent in June 2014. MoSPI had released the new series of CPI with the base year of 2012 against earlier 2010 from January this year. However, back-dated data was released later for comparative analysis.

The consumer food price index for June this year stood at 5.48 per cent, compared with 4.80 per cent last month, and 7.21 per cent for the corresponding period last year. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a CPI rise of 5.1 per cent for the month.

June’s inflation was higher than the stimates and it conveyed the concerns which Rajan had flagged about food prices, said D K Joshi, chief economist with CRISIL. Joshi said the food prices showed a lagged effect from unseasonal rains in March and April in North India, which led to crop damage.

Since his last rate cut, Rajan has warned that he will not cut rates again this year, if poor rain drives up food prices even further.

Image
Wholesale prices FALL 2.4% in June
Wholesale Price Index-based inflation (WPI) for the month of June continued to be in the deflationary territory for the eighth straight month, backed primarily by lower commodity prices.

But a big rise in prices of essential food items like pulses, potato, and onion pointed to concerns of possible higher food inflation.

The WPI data comes a day after Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation rose to a nine-month high of 5.40% in June, on the back of spike in food prices.

In Tuesday's WPI data, prices of pulses grew 33.67% in June year-on-year, compared with 22.84% in May, and 15.38% in April. Potato showed a rise of 52.40%, and onions showed a rise of nearly 19% year-on-year for June. Unseasonal rainfall in March and April, which led to crop damage, is likely to be one of the reasons for these trends.

The rise in food prices validates the Reserve Bank of India's stance on food inflation. RBI governor Raghuram Rajan has warned that he will not cut rates further if food prices increase further.

Fuel, power group inflation at -10.03% vs -10.51% (m-o-m)

Primary articles inflation at -0.76% Vs -0.77% (m-o-m)

Manufactured products inflation at -0.77% Vs -0.64% (m-o-m)

Food articles inflation at 2.88% Vs 3.8% (m-o-m)

As early as June, GoI took steps to address the price rise from pulses;
Rs 200 per quintal boost for MSP of pulses: Why experts think it's a good move
With an eye on to increase acreage, Modi government on Wednesday increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of pulses by an exceptional Rs 200 per quintal. "In view of a large surplus of cereals in contrast to huge deficit of pulses, the Cabinet made an exception and decided to give a bonus of Rs 200 per quintal for pulses over and above the recommendations of the CACP," the government release said.

The government expects this to give a strong price signal to farmers to increase acreage and invest for increase in productivity of pulses. CCEA also increased the minimum support price (MSP) of paddy by Rs 50 to Rs 1,410 per quintal for this year. MSP is the rate at which government buys the grain from farmers.

Terming the hike in MSP for pulses a good move, TK Arun Editor, Opinion at Economic Times, said, "There is a shortage of pulses in the country. No other country in the world produces pulses to meet the scale of demand in India."

"In case the demand for pulses is not met, the prices will shoot up. The hike in MSP for pulses is a move in the right direction to incentivise farmers to sow pulses," he told Economictimes.com.

The effect of these moves will take time, but I think GoI already has its eyes on the ball as far as the symptoms of this CPI blip are concerned.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Dipanker » 14 Jul 2015 20:19

India biggest recipient of US economic assistance over 66-year period: USAID


The United States, over the period 1946-2012, has given India the largest amount of economic assistance, while providing Israel the greatest quantity of military assistance over the same interval, according to data compiled by USAID.


Top 10 countries receiving US economic assistance from 1946-2012

India: $65.1bn
Israel: $65bn
United Kingdom: $63.6bn
Egypt: $59.6bn
Pakistan: $44.4bn
Vietnam: $41bn
Iraq: $39.7bn
South Korea: $36.5bn
Germany: $33.3bn
France: $31bn

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Hitesh » 14 Jul 2015 23:37

^ That above should be on a per capita basis. If on per capita basis, India would have ranked the lowest. Israel would be the highest followed by next UK.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Satya_anveshi » 15 Jul 2015 07:52

US probably would rank first among countries evading taxes in India, aiding terrorist and terrorist sympathizers inimical to Indian interests, sanctioning Indian companies and issuing travel advisories thereby damaging Indian commercial interests. All these misdeeds would have cost way more than "economic assistance" received by India from US.

Let's not forget, being recipient of US economic assistant isn't a good thing to admit neither by India nor by US. Economic assistance often comes with horrible conditions that eventually makes the assistance flow back to the provider. So, FkU US for providing India largest economic assistance. Dare to stop it and stuff it in your nether ends.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Aditya_V » 15 Jul 2015 08:14

Dipanker wrote:India biggest recipient of US economic assistance over 66-year period: USAID


The United States, over the period 1946-2012, has given India the largest amount of economic assistance, while providing Israel the greatest quantity of military assistance over the same interval, according to data compiled by USAID.


Top 10 countries receiving US economic assistance from 1946-2012

India: $65.1bn
Israel: $65bn
United Kingdom: $63.6bn
Egypt: $59.6bn
Pakistan: $44.4bn
Vietnam: $41bn
Iraq: $39.7bn
South Korea: $36.5bn
Germany: $33.3bn
France: $31bn



The article states the words Ïnflation"Adjusted". which probably means a few billion of wheat dumped in 1946-1950 have been multiplied many X times some which flowed into pre independant India and has Paki's share as well and is being put out as H&D

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Suraj » 15 Jul 2015 08:52

Aditya_V is correct. "Inflation adjusted" makes the difference by inflating the value of ancient aid to present dollars. India's average USAID inflows in the past half a decade were $80 million/year, with food aid reduced to $0 since 2011m on our request. Likewise UK, Germany and France figures are just extrapolated Marshall Plan figures in present dollars.

TSP gets $500-750M, Afghanistan about $1.5-2 billion a year, each of the past several years. Indian FDI into US (approx $1-2 billion a year) much exceeds USAID inflows to India.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby A_Gupta » 15 Jul 2015 17:43

Both the constant dollar and current dollar information is available here:
https://eads.usaid.gov/gbk/data/prepared.cfm
At current dollars the total is something like $14billion dollars (I think, quick guesstimation).

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Austin » 15 Jul 2015 22:23

US faces 1 trillion USD pension shortfall

http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/14/retirem ... -pensions/

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Prem » 16 Jul 2015 03:27

Austin wrote:US faces 1 trillion USD pension shortfall

http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/14/retirem ... -pensions/


This will shortfall be covered with fed paper work costing no more that 10-15$.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Vayutuvan » 16 Jul 2015 03:50

Yes siree. Interest rates will stay low, they print a trillion $1 bills, and viola everybody is good (except fixed income folks, i.e. the pensioners) are screwed over. They still keep saying that the "inflation" (their definition) is not high so no need to raise interest rates. Those living on their fixed incomes flock to PR/Detroit/Orange County bonds, a few will go bankrupt (what is it Chap 8?) and so the world turns.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Suraj » 16 Jul 2015 04:33

June exports slide for 7th month, down 15.82%
Merchandise exports in June contracted 15.82 per cent to $22.28 billion compared to $26.47 billion in the same month last year. This was for the seventh straight month that shipments from India witnessed a decline mainly on account of weaker demand largely due to crisis in China and Greece.

In May, the rate of decline of exports was higher at 20.19 per cent.

Total exports in the first quarter of this financial year also plummeted 16.75 per cent to $66.69 billion compared to $80.11 billion in the corresponding period last year, according to the trade data released here on Wednesday by the ministry of commerce and industry.

Imports in June, on the other hand, were 13.40 per cent lower reaching $33.11 billion compared to $38.24 billion. Cumulatively, imports saw a decline of 12.61 per cent at $9.89 billion as against $11.31 billion in June last year.

Interestingly, for the last couple of months, non-oil imports are also falling continuously. In May and June, non-oil imports declined 2.24 per cent and 1.85 per cent at $24.76 billion and $24.90 billion, respectively.

Gold imports in June came down by 36.96 per cent to $1.96 billion compared to $3.12 in June 2014.

In the last three months, non-oil non-gold imports have been more or less steady barring only May when it contracted 4.3 per cent. In April and June they registered a growth rate of 7.1 per cent and 3.2 per cent respectively.

According to Aditi Nayar, senior economist, ICRA, the continuous fall in non-oil exports remains a “source of apprehension.”

“In particular, the contraction in shipment of items such as engineering and electronic goods, reinforces concerns regarding the feebleness of external demand,” Nayar stated.

In June, export of engineering and electronic goods declined 5.56 per cent and 9.85 per cent at $5.09 billion and $0.47 billion, respectively.

“The interest subvention for exports should be released immediately as the inordinate delay is dampening the spirit of exporters, which is otherwise low due to global conditions,” said SC Ralhan, president, Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO).

In an effort to strengthen export performance the commerce secretary Rita Teaotia on Wednesday convened a meeting of state government representatives and asked them to come out their own respective trade policies.

During the 2014 election, Modi spoke about his hope that states will pursue independent export growth efforts focusing on their own individual strengths. The push continues:
States asked to shape foreign trade policies
With a view to bettering export performance, the government on Wednesday asked states to prepare their own foreign trade policy (FTP) enumerating their export strategy.

During a meeting between Commerce Secretary Rita Teaotia and senior officials from various state governments, the Centre also asked them to expedite the work on infrastructure development such as manufacturing zones, industrial parks and economic corridors.

In an effort to involve the states in the country’s exporting activity, the ministry of commerce and industry has also formed a trade facilitation council under the chairmanship of Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

India launches mission to skill 400 million by 2022
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday launched his government's another ambitious scheme the National Skill Development Mission to train 400 million Indians by 2022.

The government also launched the Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY), skill loan scheme and the national policy for skill development and entrepreneurship 2015 on the World Youth Skill Day. Under the skill loan scheme, youth can avail credit between Rs 5,000 and Rs 150,000 to attend skill-related training programme. Modi stressed the need for more ITI institutes in the country.

The government estimates an incremental requirement of 110 million additional skilled personnel across 24 sectors by 2022. The demand will be highest in real estate, transport, retail and beauty and wellness sectors. But the agricultural sector will see a negative growth with 24.8 million people moving to other jobs.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Suraj » 18 Jul 2015 01:57

One of the demands of exports getting priority:
Interest subvention scheme for exporters on cards
The government is set to announce an interest subvention scheme for exporters to arrest the persistent fall in merchandise exports.

"The interest subvention scheme is to be announced soon, which will give encouragement to sectors that have high potential," commerce and industry minister Nirmala Sitharaman said during a function here on Friday.

Exports fell for a seventh month in a row by 15 per cent in June, although the rate of contraction came down from 20 per cent in the previous month.

The minister said exports were hit owing to subdued international demand and depreciating currencies, particularly the euro.

"The triggers for improving export performance are not really happening," said Sitharaman, adding the ministry had discussed the matter with industry groups to find ways to push exports and explore new markets.

Under interest subvention scheme, a portion of the rates is reimbursed by the government to lenders. This would help exporters in fiercely-competitive global markets.

The government had announced such interest subvention scheme of three per cent in 2008-09. It expired on March 31, 2014. There was no subvention in 2014-15.

Exporters believe a three per cent subvention would be given this time as well.

Centre preparing draft GST legislation
The government is preparing model draft legislations to implement the proposed national goods and services tax (GST).

"It is to put these for comments from stakeholders once Parliament approves the GST constitution amendment bill," disclosed Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC) member V S Krishnan at a business chamber event here.

He said this would be done once the constitution amendment, pending in the Rajya Sabha, is passed. This Bill will also then, have to be approved by half the states. The Bill, approved by the Lok Sabha, is being scrutinised by a Rajya Sabha panel, likely to give its report next week.

The three legislations - Central GST (CGST), State GST (SGST) and integrated GST (iGST) - will have to be approved by the respective legislatures for nationwide roll out of the single rate GST.

CGST would be a central law and states would have to pass their own legislation, for which the model law is being prepared. States would also have to approve iGST, on inter-state movement.

The government plans to implement the single rate GST, subsuming central excise, service tax and other local levies, from April 1 next year.

Farmers hasten kharif sowing to benefit from June rains
Sowing of kharif crops was complete in nearly half the normal area as on Thursday as farmers having rushed to plant their crops to take advantage of the moisture from the good June showers. This is much better than in the corresponding period in 2014, when sowing was done in only 33 per cent area.

The southwest monsoon so far in July has been 32 per cent less than normal across the country, with rains in central and southern India being 54 per cent and 60 per cent less than normal. June rains were 31 per cent more than normal over central India, while over southern India the showers were 19 per cent more than normal.

“Farmers tend to sow their crop in rainfed areas as soon as the first showers come and if they (rains) are more than normal, then it is better. The current increase in acreage is mainly due to good June showers,” Ramesh Chand, director of the National Centre for Agriculture Economics and Policy Research, told Business Standard.

According to him, the situation is worrisome for western and southern India if the break in showers continues for another 10 days.

Data from the agriculture department show till July 17, the pulses were planted in 5.59 million hectares of land, which is 134.07 per cent more than the area covered during the same period last year.

Oilseeds, which includes soybean and groundnut, has been sown in 12.71 million hectares till Friday, 234 per cent more than the area covered during the same period last year.
Sowing has been complete in 50 per cent of the normal area covered under pulses and oilseeds so far in the current season.

Paddy, the main kharif foodgrain grown during the season, has been planted in 13.21 million hectares till July 16, more than the 12.65 million hectares covered during the same period last year.

Coarse cereals has been planted in 10.23 million hectares till Friday, more than double the area covered during the corresponding period last year.

The southwest monsoon in 2015 has been only seven per cent less than normal, as on July 17, largely because of good rains in June.

India can be $8 trillion economy in less than 15 yrs: Panagariya
With higher savings rate and robust economic growth, India can become a $ eight trillion economy in less than 15 years, overtaking Japan to become according to Arvind Panagariya, Vice Chairman, NITI Aayog.

The prospects for India to become the third largest economy of the world, placing it above Japan, in less than fifteen years are excellent today, Panagariya said delivering sixth R. K. Talwar Memorial Lecture organized. The lecture was organised by Indian Institute of banking and Finance (IIBF) here.

Taking into account the real appreciation of the rupee, during the decade of 2003-04 to 2012-13, India has grown above 10 percent per annum in real dollars. At this pace, India can turn its current $ two trillion economy at 2014-15 prices into $ eight trillion in fifteen years or less.

“Can India grow at the rate it grew during 2003-04 to 2012-13? The answer is a resounding yes. The savings rate remains nearly 30 percent of the GDP with prospects to rise above 35 percent, a level reached in 2007-08”, NITI Aayog chief asserted.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby member_29058 » 18 Jul 2015 07:46

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... m=referral
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s principal secretary Nripendra Mishra hauled road builder KMC Constructions into his office last week, along with a state bank and officials, and set an October deadline to finish the Pink City Expressway linking Delhi and Jaipur. It looks a tough ask. The 225 km (140 mile) highway is still missing seven bridges, several stretches need to be widened to the projected six lanes, and miles of land have not yet been acquired. The road should have opened three years ago.

The journey from the capital to the rose-hued sandstone tourist town of Jaipur can take six bumpy hours and is a symbol of the challenges PM Modi faces to kick-start Asia’s third-largest economy. Frustrated by hold-ups in way-behind-schedule projects the government thought it had fixed, PM Modi’s office is now itself leaning on contractors and banks whose estimated $49 billion in bad loans – much of it to infrastructure projects – are blamed for suppressing the investment cycle. PM Modi placed a $12.6 billion bet in this year’s budget on road building, with $16 billion more to be spent on railways, looking to create jobs and boost economic capacity.

To help pay for the modernization of decrepit roads and rail, PM Modi is reining in spending on health and welfare programmes for the poor – so the stakes are high. But a handful of troubled mega-projects like the Pink City Expressway are proving to be stubborn roadblocks. “The investment cycle has not picked up since the government came in,” said Mahesh Vyas, managing director at research group Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). “Making a premium in the budget is one thing. You have to go and spend it.”

The transport ministry has already burned through $2 billion since April as it races to invest the $6.8 billion of government spending it has been allocated this year. Yet this has not fed through to a marked increase in new road building, with much of the money earmarked for cash-crunched developers.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby member_29058 » 18 Jul 2015 07:50

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinio ... lls-3-0/2/

Taking a historical perspective, Skills 1.0 lasted from Independence till the UPA government; a pathetic drift without vision, execution or institutions. Skills 2.0 began with the UPA government; the vision was sound but the execution was assassinated by a lack of institutional structures — anybody could say no and nobody could say yes — and the failure to nest skills into a broader job-creation vision.
While the test will be execution, the new skill programme announced earlier this week — Skills 3.0 — has good odds of succeeding for three reasons. First, it is part of a multi-point agenda for creating jobs. Second, it strikes the right balance between continuity and change. Finally, it strikes the right balance between poetry and prose.


Before diving into Skills 3.0, let’s recap learnings from Skills 2.0. We have three distinct problems: matching (connecting demand to supply), mismatch (repairing supply for demand) and pipeline (preparing supply for demand). We can’t teach children in six months what they should have learnt in 12 years of school. We have licked our school enrolment problem and Class 10 is the new Class 8 for employer filtering. We confront a financing failure: employers are not willing to pay for skills or candidates, but are willing to pay a premium for skilled candidates; candidates are not willing to pay for skills but willing to pay for a job; and banks/ microfinance institutions are not willing to lend for skills unless a job is guaranteed.


Now let’s examine why Skills 3.0 has better odds. Nobody knows whether jobs or skills come first for an economy; the only way to solve a chicken and egg problem is to become vegetarian, that is, change the problem frame completely. The outlines of a complex job-creation policy agenda are emerging — smart cities, Make in India, Digital India, GST, ease of doing business, labour law reform and cooperative federalism. This will combine with some of the wonderful “daily life” objectives listed in the new skill and entrepreneurship policy, like unique enterprise numbers for all enterprises, composite application forms for all approvals and registrations, revised exit policy, etc, to catalyse productive entrepreneurship.

The new programme strikes the right balance between continuity and change. One of the more painful policy narratives of the last few years has been junking everything done by predecessors but the new skill programme maintains continuity in the structures and leadership of sector skill councils, the National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC) and the National Skill Development Authority. The earlier target of skilling 500 million people has been revised to 400 million and unpacked into specific chunks.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Kakkaji » 18 Jul 2015 08:21

GST: Govt amenable to full compensation to states for 5 years

The government appears ready to accept the demand for full compensation to states for a period of five years after introduction of the proposed national goods and services tax (GST).

By acceding to this view among the Rajya Sabha panel scrutinising the constitutional amendment Bill for GST, the government would be closer to getting regional political parties on board for the major tax change. The Congress party, however, continues to oppose the present Bill and is preparing a dissent note to the report. Left representatives are also likely to dissent on several clauses.

The Bill had proposed full compensation for three years, tapering to 75 per cent in the fourth year and 50 per cent in the fifth.

The panel is slated to finalise the report next week. It could see a majority siding with the government, with the dissenters likely to be limited to Left, Congress and AIADMK, five of the 21 members.


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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Theo_Fidel » 18 Jul 2015 20:25

^^^

Top priority has to be the Iran sub sea gas pipeline. Something people are forgetting once more.
Right now assets are cheap, know how is cheap, suppliers cheap. India could get this pipeline and lock in a $5/mbtu type price for the gas long term. Reliance built its KG gas deep sea pipeline in 16 months.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby RamaY » 18 Jul 2015 20:36

Theo_Fidel wrote:^^^

Top priority has to be the Iran sub sea gas pipeline. Something people are forgetting once more.
Right now assets are cheap, know how is cheap, suppliers cheap. India could get this pipeline and lock in a $5/mbtu type price for the gas long term. Reliance built its KG gas deep sea pipeline in 16 months.


+1008

Looks like only you and I are keep repeating about this project for years.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby nandakumar » 18 Jul 2015 21:27

Theo_Fidel wrote:^^^

Top priority has to be the Iran sub sea gas pipeline. Something people are forgetting once more.
Right now assets are cheap, know how is cheap, suppliers cheap. India could get this pipeline and lock in a $5/mbtu type price for the gas long term. Reliance built its KG gas deep sea pipeline in 16 months.

The sub sea pipeline is about 200 kilometre. Isnt this a bigger deal many times over?

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion Oct 12 2013

Postby Suraj » 19 Jul 2015 05:04

A continuation of my earlier post about the divergence between quantity indexed IIP and value add-indexed GDP growth rates:
Is power output a better guide for growth?
Is the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) a reliable indicator of growth in the gross domestic product or GDP? Or is the real GDP story hidden in data on electricity generation?

The new GDP methodology uses establishments and enterprises for calculating manufacturing output. Earlier, only the establishment approach was used, which meant calculating production plant by plant. In the enterprises approach, activities at headquarters, like marketing, are also account for.

An official of the ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI) said the establishment approach was used for small companies in the new GDP data because they had a few plants or sometimes a single plant, but for large companies the enterprises approach was used.

The new methodology estimates manufacturing growth sector higher than that arrived at from the IIP in an expanding economy. This happens because advertising and marketing expenses in the headquarters of large companies are now registered as manufacturing, the official explained.

In the event of slowing growth, when these expenses were reduced drastically, growth in manufacturing in GDP might not be higher than the IIP, but there might still be divergence between the two, the official said.

This growing divergence under the new series is one of the reasons that has led analysts to question the continued use of the IIP as an indicator of growth.

On the other hand, electricity generation shows a strong relationship with GDP growth. Dhaval Patel, analyst at CARE, said, “The elasticity between GDP and long-term power demand is close to 1.1, though a factor of 0.9 is taken by ministry/planning based on recent trends.”

In China, too, analysts sceptical of official GDP data tend to use proxies such as electricity consumption, rail cargo and loan disbursements to track broader economic growth.

Past data suggests the industrial sector in India accounts for 47 per cent of total energy consumption. Within the sector, the most energy-intensive industries are iron and steel, which accounts for roughly 21 per cent of industrial energy use, followed by construction (9.2 per cent), chemical and petrochemicals (4.4 per cent).

As electricity consumption by households and in the agricultural sector follows its trend growth, greater electricity generation is on account of increased demand from industry.

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