Theo_Fidel wrote:There is no deficit monsoon so far. IMD is blowing hot air.
July first 2 weeks was 7% deficit.
But June was 60% surplus!
IMD is mentioning 2 weeks to minister but ignoring an entire month of June. Sad that minister falls for these babu's.
Saar, please not to blow hot air on Economy forum- it is tiring when you blow hokum and in the process castigate IMD and show the minister as a buffoon. If you want to., please argue with facts in the weather thread. The links are there.
Uttam'ji., check out the weather thread. It has links to the IMD website. Like one link you must follow http://www.imd.gov.in/section/hydro/dyn ... /daily.jpg
Check out the expected vs. deficit. For eg. the deficit for East UP and Bihar is 23% (or -23% compared to the normal). That is an area size of Spain is 23% deficit. Now look at Kerala, Konkan, N. Interior Karnataka, Rayalseema, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat. And look at the deficits - from 24% to 51%.
For no other stupid reason does the CM of Gujarat offers prayers for better rain and end drought. Look at the spate of farmer suicides in N.I Karnataka. Approaching almost 100 so far. The drought is going to affect a region size of France, Portugal & Spain combined together.
It is immaterial if west MP has excess. With 40% of India non-irrigated., it is rain that counts.
Note that the monsoon lasts till August/September. And it will get worse. What the minister reported is an all India average taken together.
So here are the dire predictions:
1. Your dal prices will rise. Hang on to that toor, moong, arhar dal while you can.
2. Your onion prices will rise. There is no recourse here. Most of the onions come from Mah and they are into drought.
There is a silver lining., good snowfall in J&K. This will keep the waters in Punjab and Ganga, Jamuna and Brahmaputra well fed till 2016/2017. So the hindi heartland will be able to produce good wheat crops.
Overall good rainfall in MP., this will keep irrigated regions of Guj well fed till 2016 by feeding into Narmada/Tapti. Narmada will still be their lifeline.
Godavari, Krishna and Cauvery will also do well.
Overall monsoon will impact Indian economy., however thankfully it will not be dire. India dodged a bullet so far. Still there are two more months to go (till September).
Now for the next year., farmers need to follow Modi's recommendation. He mentioned it in Mann ki Baat. "More crop per drop".
If by 2016 May., the irrigation shortfall is say 20% that will be one major achievement. The Mah sarkaar is doing just that. UP/Bihar/Orissa needs to catch up.