Suraj wrote:The former requires that I choose to ignore data, but data is exactly what I quote, and ironically what you pooh pooh.
Economic survey assertions are "data"? If all ES assertions since independence were to be "data", India would be an OECD country by now.
Suraj wrote:Their importance lies in the speed with which a large UID system, and a large card transaction processing system has been put in place to handle all those cards.
What is this "large card txn processing system"? Rupay is an interchange protocol, not a txn processing system. Cards txn are processed through POS, ATMs and online/mobile means. None of them are remotely in place in rural areas. BTW, large UID was rolled out by the previous govt, roundly criticised by the current chaps then!
These are technical issues, cannot be done with generalist rhetoric.
Suraj wrote:Both of which are already in place, and yet can face failure if last mile delivery by the telecom doesn't work effectively
Well actually, by that logic nothing will work if the power plants stopped supplying electricity!
And well, "beneficiary identification" has happened? Really - which database will that be? And political will? We are still pussyfooting around urea subsidies!
Suraj wrote:A telepayment system will need an interface with a formal transaction clearance system, and maintaining virtual accounts, all of which costs money on top of the costs of a telecom network.
Again, random generalist terms unknowingly thrown around in a particularly specialist area. There are real bank accounts (there are no "virtual" accounts), where monies get transferred to and from through remittance mechanisms like NEFT/RTGS etc, with instructions being sent across multiple
mechanisms (RBI clearance, SWIFT messages, digital instructions, interbank etc). The telco (today) has little role other than transmitting a few kbs of data.
Suraj wrote:So you consider it timely to decide something is a failure within days of announcement and caution against claiming success until when you decide it is ?
On the contrary, I think zero balance bank accounts, monetisation of subsidies etc have large possibilities. But it isnt a "success" yet, we are far from it. the big decisions are yet to be taken.
Suraj wrote:It is your assertion questioning payment banks, that is dubious, because you not only are jumping the gun,
I am not questioning payment banks, I am questioning premature euphoria about them. Simply because I do this as a day job - business models are far from obvious to most investors and promoters. To conclude lofty outcomes and possibilities around opinion and position papers and consultant reports isnt a luxury of definitiveness I have!
Suraj wrote:your fervent support for the now discredited NREGA , and your insistence that it would not feed systemic inflation . Guess what happened
Ah, NREGA. Discredited? This govt increased the budget for the programme, and minister after minister appeared on national media to painfully argue how the programme is going to be strengthened ! I guess the discredit has happened somewhere else!
It feeds into systemic inflation? Well, another instance of generalist newspaper rhetoric in a specialised area. Can you point out ANY credible research (not random newspaper Op-ed pieces) that establishes that causality?
Here is something that actually establishes the Null Hypothesis, ie, NREGA didnt cause any significant inflation at all.https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/Publications ... x?id=16055
Done by RBI, and AFTER the new govt was in power.
Actually, it was always quite obvious to anyone who has gone through Econ 101 in an undergrad course - one can damn NREGA for a lot of things, but not for stoking structural inflation.