Perspectives on the global economic changes

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Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 03 May 2018 21:21

Video: Alan Greenspan: The fiscal system is out of whack

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/57798582 ... show-clips

Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 04 May 2018 17:34

World Inequality Report 2018

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Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 04 May 2018 21:43

Austin wrote:Video: Alan Greenspan: The fiscal system is out of whack

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/57798582 ... show-clips


More like banker bailouts & bonuses to the tune of trillions which Mr. Magoo dumped on to the backs of taxpayers since 2008 is out of whack.

Now he's suggesting cuts to SS to pay for that theft.

ramana
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby ramana » 09 May 2018 01:37

Austin wrote:check the video in the link

Mark Mobius: Investors need to be prepared for a 40% stock-market crash


‘I’m much more cautious. There could be a substantial correction in the markets... these short-term corrections can be quite dramatic.’
Dramatic, as in up to a 40% haircut in the stock market, according to veteran emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius.


“I’m not predicting that, I’m just saying we’ve got to be ready for that,” Mobius told CNBC in an interview Wednesday following his similar warning last month. “The catalyst I believe will come from continuing increases in interest rates. The (Federal Reserve) is definitely moving in that direction. When the Fed moves, everybody else has got to move in that direction.”

Mobius, pointing to the vulnerability of the long-in-the-tooth bull market, also didn’t rule out the potential impact of geopolitical flare-ups on equities, saying that “any event could also be a trigger.”


Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan Chase and someone from GS were saying Treasuries at 4% and 3.5% respectively. Currently S&P 500 is 2%.

So unless one is in for long term growth, money will move to the T-bills as 2< 3.5 to 4%.

But then the tax cuts and reforms have not kicked in.


Just use as a data point.

Suraj
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2018 05:04

It doesn't necessarily follow that raising rates will bust the stock market bubble. Multiple rate hikes, especially without being telegraphed, maybe. But the current situation doesn't necessarily suggest that. Money moves from one asset to another. My question for any proposal of a crash in the S&P 500 would be "where does the money move ?"

Here's a historical chart showing S&P 500, interest rates, CPI all in one place.
S&P vs interest rates vs CPI

panduranghari
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby panduranghari » 09 May 2018 17:28

Suraj saar,
We are in uncharted territory. Using 9 maps and 3 GPS systems will not be of any assistance to make any decisions. No wonder why most big name managers are shutting shop.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2018 20:00

Technically there's no charted territory . The future's always unknown. Like I asked earlier, where's the money going to move ? It doesn't just go up in smoke.

chanakyaa
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby chanakyaa » 11 May 2018 07:08

Anyone looking for investment idea and tired of perennial low interest rates? How about investing in Argentina, 40%+ interest payment (but no guarantees of getting principal back) :D

Argentina's socialist economy is in free fall. Presenting Argentina IMF Bailout 2.0

Argentina begins talks with IMF over financial aid

Argentine Central Bank Holds Key Interest Rate at 40 Percent

Argentina on brink of ECONOMIC MELTDOWN as inflation soars and peso plummets

Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 11 May 2018 18:10

chanakyaa wrote:Anyone looking for investment idea and tired of perennial low interest rates? How about investing in Argentina, 40%+ interest payment (but no guarantees of getting principal back) :D

Argentina's socialist economy is in free fall. Presenting Argentina IMF Bailout 2.0

Argentina begins talks with IMF over financial aid

Argentine Central Bank Holds Key Interest Rate at 40 Percent

Argentina on brink of ECONOMIC MELTDOWN as inflation soars and peso please lummets


Well they can invest in India Gsec and get 7-8 % for 10 year coupon or get 4 % for Chinese one

Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 12 May 2018 19:47

Former RBI Governor Rajan on China's Debt, Economy


Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 14 May 2018 20:00

David Stockman on The Tom Woods Show: The Delusions of 'Make America Great Again'


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 15 May 2018 23:05

Jeffrey Gundlach
Jeffrey Gundlach
@TruthGundlach
The S&P 500’s dividend yield is now lower than the yield on a three month US Treasury Bill.

Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 16 May 2018 09:41

Raghuran Rajan // Financial Crises, and Policies to Raise Economic Growth


Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 19 May 2018 10:42

Interest Rates Are About to Shoot Through The Roof - Peter Schiff


Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 19 May 2018 16:35

US 10-year Treasury note yield hits highest level since 2011

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/18/us-yiel ... -peak.html

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby A_Gupta » 21 May 2018 18:45

http://www.jonesday.com/files/Publicati ... 2011%20(A4).pdf
Comparison of Chapter 11 Bankruptcy in the US with UK, France, Italy, Germany (supposedly the "civilized" world, see thread on Indian economy).

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby panduranghari » 23 May 2018 17:39


Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 23 May 2018 22:15

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