Perspectives on the global economic changes

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 07 Feb 2019 12:01

Bloomberg: U.S. Health Care Is Headed for Disaster, Former HHS Sec. Leavitt Says

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Feb 2019 21:51

David Stockman - Central Banks Created Fiscal Doomsday Machine

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Feb 2019 09:02

Neshant Good Read
Next Stop: Recession!We've arrived at the end of the line by Chris Martenson

https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/114 ... -recession

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 11 Feb 2019 10:25

Austin wrote:Yes this is day light robbery , So called rule based order where rules are bent to suit ones political agenda

GOI gold is in India AFAIK in RBI vault

Austin, a while ago, I had read that some of India's gold is at fort Knox or England/Germany.. I can't seem to find any information on it now.. can you check?

...

I found the link.

https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Annual ... 0D535F.PDF

If you go to page 160.. you will see a table that shows roughly half of all our gold is held abroad, at the bank of England

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 11 Feb 2019 12:40

Will check out your link.

Note : Chris Martenson has been wrong for a long time now on account of not having anticipated the artificial re-inflation of the bubble since 2008.

There's been a lot of bogus economic growth reported globally since 2008 so I'm sure a shoe will drop somewhere.

Yet another perspective below.

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10 NEW Signs Of China Imminent Economic Collapse 2019 China's Yuan CRASH!

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 13 Feb 2019 08:33

US National Debt Surpasses $22 Trillion Mark for First Time - Treasury Data

The US national debt for the first time ever crossed the $22 trillion mark, Treasury Department data revealed Tuesday. The total US national debt is now $22.012 trillion.

According to the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the United States’ federal budget deficit will rise by more than $100 billion to reach $900 billion this year. The CBO said in its January report that over the coming decade, deficits will fluctuate between 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the average over the past half a century.

the US public debt grew roughly by $2 trillion compared to early 2017 when President Donald trump took office, according to the US Treasury Department. Moreover, the rate of increase of the debt accelerated after Trump pushed through $1.5 trillion in tax cuts in December 2017.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 13 Feb 2019 08:37

DT added $2 Trillion to the National Debt by the end of 2020 weather he stays or leaves he might add another 1.5 Trillion , The budget deficit of 4.1-4.7 % is quite high for a nation whose Debt to GDP ratio is above 105 %

With all the unpaid liabilities US Debt is quite high has Jeff Gundlach has mentioned it is around $122 Trillion or 6x times of GDP.

He states US is floating in an Ocean of Debt http://fortune.com/2019/01/12/jeffrey-gundlach-us-debt/

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 13 Feb 2019 16:26

Paul Volcker & Ray Dalio | State of the US Economy & Government

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Feb 2019 17:42

'When the next recession comes there is going to be a lot of turmoil,' says Jeffrey Gundlach

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Feb 2019 23:49

Jeffrey Gundlach on the market, millennials, cannabis, taxes, and the 2020 election

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 23 Feb 2019 11:23

Video on Tump lecturing his negotiator on MOU .Funny

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... emium-asia

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 23 Feb 2019 11:29

Jeffrey Gundlach
‏
Verified account

Fed: “two ‘19 hikes & Auto QT” in mere weeks turned into “patient & maybe QE regular tool”. Now it’s “past <2% CPI needs future >2% offset”.

So Fed is saying they not only will allow, but actually desire CPI to rise above 2%! Bond market is getting boiled like a frog in a pot.

Achieving more of the SocGen definition of “success” hapless Oudea announced today he is weighing cutting 1000’s of investment banking jobs.

Goal of 2% not just future inflation, but for the future to make up for past “shortfalls” means the real Fed goal is prices 2x every 35 yrs.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 25 Feb 2019 17:05

Austin wrote:Video on Tump lecturing his negotiator on MOU .Funny

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... emium-asia

Trump is right.

MOUs don't mean anything. Only a signed agreement does.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 12 Mar 2019 21:25

Stockman: America’s Deficits ‘Unheard of Historically,’ We’re in ‘Uncharted Waters’

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 14 Mar 2019 20:32

The Powell Put & the Bear Market Rally (w/ Jeff Gundlach) | Interview | Real Vision™

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 14 Mar 2019 20:32

Neshant what do you thing about the Interview with Jeff Gundlach

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Mar 2019 09:49

https://twitter.com/PhysGoldFund/status ... 2039812101

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 01 Apr 2019 21:50

Why Russia Is Dumping Dollars And Buying Gold At The Fastest Pace In Decades

Can't Stop, Won't Stop, Russia Buys Another Million Ounces of Gold

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 12 Apr 2019 23:07

Stephen K. Bannon's Keynote Address at the Western Petroleum Marketers Association in Las Vegas

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Apr 2019 13:21

what is behind the EU household debt so high vs the US ?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 13 Apr 2019 16:15

Could possibly be a combination of higher standard of living and lower wages , expensive houses and hence high mortgages , Credit Card Bills , Student loans and other factor contributing to higher Household debt.

Among G-20 countries India seems to have lower Household debt to GDP ratio of 11:30 %

https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/ ... ebt-to-gdp

I think this is a vicous cycle that EU and US citizen might be going through because they have high household debt what ever salary they earn a significant % might be going into paying those interest for mortgages , CC bills , Education loans etc and then to maintain those standard of living or new requirement you need to borrow more and this adds up to more household to debt ratio.

This at a time when interest rates are so low in EU and US barely 1-2 % what happens when those rise to 3-4 % that debt will just rise.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 14 Apr 2019 22:40

THE TRUTH Behind President Trump's New Call For QE4. By Gregory Mannarino

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 15 Apr 2019 10:34

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
14h
If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points, and GDP would have been well over 4% instead of 3%...with almost no inflation. Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite!

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 14 May 2019 17:35

On the 1st of Dec 2007,the % of C or lower rated debt was approximately 10%. On the 1st of January 2008, when the financial crisis was underway it rose to 19%. At the peak of the last crisis it was 24%.

Today when all is hunkydory, the % of C and lower rated debt is...........drumroll..........43%!

If that is not astounding then god knows what is....this has become too long in the tooth.

Did you hear about CLO's? The brother of CDO's. Those pesky CDO's which brought down the anglo saxon system last time around? Yes they are gone but what has arrived to replace them is the CLO- Collateralised Loan Obligations.

Roughly they account for 65trillion of notional debt. Most of it is held by banks from Europe and Japan as they have to deal with negative interest rates. Lots of people are going to holding pitchforks and asking for bankers heads. I doubt they will get any.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 15 May 2019 02:46

The chart available here says Eurozone household debt-to-GDP peaked at 64% in 2010, and has since been steadily declining to present when it is 57.6%
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/ ... ebt-to-gdp

Likewise US household debt-to-GDP peaked at 98.6% around 2008 and since has dropped to 76.4%
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... ebt-to-gdp

My conclusion is that someone is trying to stampede people into buying gold.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 15 May 2019 14:43

The household debt does not include student debt which is a huge problem in US. The European debt does not include the liabilities owned to the public by pension providers.

If people who are sensible are not doing what they must, then there will be some really hard times.

Also the current debt levels are manageable (?) at 0%. At 2% not so. So all the hard worked calculations do not add up. Is there any wonder why Powell's rhetoric of rising rates is now gone and substituted by zero bound or even lower.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 16 May 2019 01:56

May be of interest, old article - US Household Debt (including student debt), but the trends remain the same.
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/ ... harts.html

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 May 2019 13:19

We are in this new phase of economic development model which Fed has perfected along with BOJ and ECB where

Interest will be eternally close to 0 or negitive
Stock Market propped by Central Banks will keep rising with some minor correction via small fall
Junk Bond or Low Rated Corporate Bonds dont matter
Debts Really Does not matter as Printing Press is eternal and Inflation wont rise beyond 2-3 % no matter how much they print out.
Student Loan and other will get recaliberated or washed off by Central Banks.
Gold and Other Precious Metal interest rates wil be controlled with Paper Gold , Metals etc

The last 10 years of experiments with QE and LRIP/Near Zero interest rates etc has been perfected for the next 2-3 decades of economic growth model

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 May 2019 13:06

Steve Bannon: China was not prepared to have Trump in office

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 22 May 2019 23:18

DoubleLine CEO Gundlach

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 02 Jun 2019 19:34

Peak car?
Global demand for cars will decline 3% in 2019, analysts predict.
https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEE ... id=US%3Aen

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 Jun 2019 11:49

Which G20 Countries’ Public Debt is More Expensive than that of Russia?

https://www.polygraph.info/a/russia-pub ... 11115.html

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 09 Jun 2019 11:58

Jeffrey Gundlach Danielle Di Martino Booth DLNY event Rainbow Room 572019

DoubleLine holds a high level financial discussion on where the economy is heading with CEO of Quill Intelligence, Danielle DiMartino Booth and CEO of DoubleLine, Jeffrey Gundlach at the Rockefeller Center's Rainbow Room in New York.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 29 Jun 2019 11:00

Jeffrey Gundlach Interview on Fox with Neil Cavuto Coast to Coast 6/12/19

khatvaanga · Post by **khatvaanga** » 31 Jul 2019 19:39

Mostly US focused article but talks about slump in global manufacturing.

https://economics.td.com/global-chill-slow-us-manu

U.S. manufacturing activity has weakened, mainly due to global factors such as weaker foreign demand growth and elevated trade uncertainty. Digging into the details, the greatest declines in manufacturing shipments have been in export-intensive sectors.

Manufacturing industries around the world are undergoing a synchronous slowing (Chart 1). In fact, in some major economies, the manufacturing sector is in contraction (i.e. China, Euro Area), while in the U.S., the pace of expansion has decelerated.

A plausible reason for the turn down in shipments is the direct intensification of the U.S.-China trade war. It’s no coincidence that manufacturing activity and associated exports began falling around the same time as the ratcheting up of the U.S.-China trade war.

Shwetank · Post by **Shwetank** » 28 Sep 2019 06:09

-During Asian economic crisis of 90s, west (IMF and US Treasury) came in and lectured Asian countries to not print money despite what they wanted, caused pain but they recovered
-When the same happened in west in 2008, they printed money and did exactly what they had told Asian countries not to do. Western central banks ended up buying huge numbers of bonds, resulting in negative yields on some national bonds.
-Emerging world has economic policy which is more orthodox and west has unorthodox monetary policy
-He considers developed world to be more financially risky than emerging world now
-No stimulus "bullets" left in the gun for central banks if west goes into recession again
-Govt. liabilities can lead to civil-war like conditions in US

Donald Amstad from Aberdeen Standard Investments delivers a sobering assessment on the state of developed market economies.

Developed economies are at a crisis point, the powers of unconventional monetary policy are exhausted, and markets are just beginning to wake up to this. That’s the sobering assessment on the current state of the global economy delivered by Donald Amstad from Aberdeen Standard Investments

His view is that when developed markets finally crack, there will be serious implications for every asset class and economy. However, those economies where monetary policy remains relatively ‘normal’ will be those best placed to respond. In his view, the emerging markets have more levers to pull when compared to developed markets, where the money printing taps have been turned on and interest rate settings are near zero.

The irony is that during the Asian crisis it was the IMF and central bankers from developed markets that convinced the emerging market governments not to print money and ‘take their medicine.’ Amstad says that this was a cathartic process for these economies, and they are now looking on in bewilderment as the West has resorts to money printing of an unprecedented scale.

“In the emerging world, economic and monetary policy is broadly orthodox. It is the West that is running unorthodox economic and monetary policy and it is the West, ironically, that is now on the cliff edge.”

Implications for investors

Amstad says that unconventional monetary policy has been pushed to the limit and that negative yielding bonds are playing havoc with pension funds and with the profitability of banks and other financial institutions. He highlights that while the United States is awash with debt, it is the $125 trillion of unfunded government liabilities that is most concerning.

Furthermore, he says that investors are faced with a scenario where the key defensive or ‘risk-free’ asset in their portfolios appears to be in a bubble. Historically, it has been riskier asset classes that have been the source of financial malaise. For example, it was credit markets in 2007, tech stocks in 2000 and equities in 1987. However, during these periods' bonds have acted as a buffer for balanced portfolios, Amstad questions if this will be the case today.

“What we have never had to cope with before is if there is a bubble in the risk-free asset class. What happens when that goes pop. What is the new risk free?”

Social implications

Central banks have been playing a game of ‘whack-a-mole', using monetary policy tools to quash any flare up in volatility. Under this regime it has been the wealthiest 0.1 per cent of the world population that has benefited from asset price inflation. Amstad argues that we are already seeing financial and economic troubles becoming political and social flare ups.

He expects that these social tensions will only continue to escalate if developed world policy makers are unwilling to take their medicine.

“If they do come out with another bout of QE then banks are going to go bust, pension funds are going to go bust, insurance companies are going to go bust. And if it pushes the stock market back up again, then the 99.9% are probably not going to tolerate more handouts. That leads to social and political instability.”

Watch the full video below for a sobering assessment on the state of developed market economies and the implications for investors.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 27 Oct 2019 07:48

What's going on here? Sudden cash crunch?

Is someone mopping up all the cash?

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 27 Oct 2019 10:02

UlanBatori wrote:What's going on here? Sudden cash crunch?

Is someone mopping up all the cash?

I am only guessing. So take it for what it is worth.
There has been lot of bullish bets on the US economy. If that is indeed the case, it must lift a number of other economies too, who look to the US to shore up their own. This must inevitably lead to commodity prices going up. Hedge funds, banks' proprietary trading desks might have gone long on crude oil and other commodities. But these aren't turning out to be lucrative. These institutions have one of two options.
1. Close out losing long positions and book losses or
2. Borrow in the short term money market and keep hoping that those old bets would come good.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Nov 2019 22:32

More on cash crunch. Is this "Chicken Little" aka dhoti shivering?
if short-term cash is short, why are short-term money-market interest rates not rising? Makes no sense. If they offer 20%, I'd be happy to lend them a few paise, hain?

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 03 Nov 2019 11:53

UlanBatori wrote:More on cash crunch. Is this "Chicken Little" aka dhoti shivering?
if short-term cash is short, why are short-term money-market interest rates not rising? Makes no sense. If they offer 20%, I'd be happy to lend them a few paise, hain?

The short term interest rates are not rising because Fed is intervening in the market (not sure of the mechanism) either by buying up bank assets or merely giving monetary accommodation to help big financial institutions.