Perspectives on the global economic changes

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Suraj
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Suraj »

Neshant wrote:
Somehow I doubt that narrative.

The debt magically vanishes after paper shuffling on massive leveraged bets gone sour and all is good?

If it's that easy , why not go right back to doing the same thing. Wash, rinse and repeat.

How did the currency get devalued 60% without all savers and domestic creditors getting screwed over? How did a massive wave of bankruptcy not sweep through businesses which suddenly experience price surges on all imported goods given that the country produces only fish & tourism? How did foreign creditors simply accept being screwed over?

Sounds like they got their debts written off as they are a white country.
Meanwhile bankers the world over are trying to keep it a secret that so called national debts owed to them are all bogus.
What 'debt' do you mean ? Sovereign debt that they're responsible to pay out of government revenues ? None of the three banks that failed were state owned. They were all private banks . The deposit insurance fund ran out of funds to pay all the depositors' insured amounts, because the Icelandic government themselves lost access to international credit markets to borrow and pay these depositors. The British and Dutch tried across three Icesave bills to get Iceland to pay, but the Icelanders voted them all down in domestic referendums. Ultimately they were taken to EFTA by the Brits and Dutch, and won their case.

As for their currency devaluation hurting their economy, of course it hurt them. Domestic creditors are not hurt, but business and economic growth were. They went through 6 successive quarter of more than -5% growth:
Image
I'm surprised that you of all people complain about Iceland. They did what you'd like nations to do with big bankers:
With Its Economy on the Mend, Iceland Stuffs Bankers for Second Time
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Neshant »

Suraj wrote: What 'debt' do you mean ? Sovereign debt that they're responsible to pay out of government revenues ? None of the three banks that failed were state owned. They were all private banks .
Its irrelevant as the entire nation's prosperity was dependent on these banks gambling with large leverage.
If all that's required is to pocket profits when times are good and declare bankruptcy when things go sour, all countries should have private banks doing their gambling to ensure national prosperity.

With everything leveraged up the wazoo, how did this country avoid ending up like African states with creditors banging on the doors demanding their loans be repaid?

These creditors certainly do it with other countries where all debts (private or not) within the country are considered sovereign debt. The govt is held responsible for the loans through threats of sanctions, trade restrictions if they don't repay. Something doesn't pass the smell test here.
Suraj wrote:As for their currency devaluation hurting their economy, of course it hurt them. Domestic creditors are not hurt, but business and economic growth were. They went through 6 successive quarter of more than -5% growth:
6 successive quarters is just a year and a half.
A year and a half of lack luster growth for well over a decade of big profits sure sounds like a sweet deal.
Suraj wrote:I'm surprised that you of all people complain about Iceland. They did what you'd like nations to do with big bankers:


Who's complaining about that?

However it is apparent there are 2 set of rules when enforcing debt repayment - one for white majority nations and another for "others".
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Suraj »

Neshant wrote:Its irrelevant as the entire nation's prosperity was dependent on these banks gambling with large leverage.
What makes the well known rules and judicial judgements 'irrelevant' ? Do state how you intend to take Iceland to court for their predicament and specifically how you hope to win. If the whole US banking system falls apart, even FDIC means nothing. Precedent has already been established at EFTA stating at under extraordinary circumstances, a nation is not required to pay up.

It's all well to claim it's all irrelevant, but I'll believe that when you succeed at proving established reality otherwise.
Neshant wrote:However it is apparent there are 2 set of rules when enforcing debt repayment - one for white majority nations and another for "others".
The last I checked, Netherlands and UK are predominantly white. They were the ones whose citizens lost billions of euros when all three Iceland banks failed, which they'll never get back.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Neshant »

Suraj wrote: What makes the well known rules and judicial judgements 'irrelevant' ? Do state how you intend to take Iceland to court for their predicament and specifically how you hope to win. If the whole US banking system falls apart, even FDIC means nothing. Precedent has already been established at EFTA stating at under extraordinary circumstances, a nation is not required to pay up.
Courts don't mean a thing if western powers want their money back.
Neither do rules and financial penalties mean a thing when their corporations create Bhopal type ecological disasters in foreign countries.
Or when they shelter financial fugitives like Nirav Modi.
You are living in a dream world if you think rules that they insist other countries follow are followed by them.

For your info, they have literally gone as far as blocking medicine shipments to certain poor Latin American countries for years to ensure every dime that has been borrowed gets repaid. And they have dispatched the IMF to African countries to ensure belts of the poor are tightened and local natural resources be sold to western companies at throw away prices to continuously repay debt (aka debt trap).
The last I checked, Netherlands and UK are predominantly white. They were the ones whose citizens lost billions of euros when all three Iceland banks failed, which they'll never get back.
They simply inflate it away - which is the whole reason they need developing countries to hold their currency and bonds. If such countries don't they are subjected to economic warfare - i.e. induced panic runs in their markets as was the case in the "Asian financial crisis" of 97.

Its exactly as I said - there are 2 sets of rules. One for OECD countries and one for everyone else.
That's how a country like Iceland emerges unscathed despite having vaporized billions.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Suraj »

Sounds like you're very determined to believe that 'western powers' (like UK and Netherlands) don't want $5 billion plus of their money back. Despite 3 rounds of attempts to coerce Iceland that failed, and an EFTA case that also failed.

Please carry on with your argument; the contradictions in what you say, often within the same paragraph in the same post, aren't quite something I can keep up with :-)
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Neshant »

As I have said and I repeat, western countries are not subjected to the same terms that non-white countries are subjected to when it comes to debt collection.

Its also the reason the IMF director was carefully picked by western countries when it came time to lend money to Greece. Despite all the hub bub, Greece has not been reduced to a starving entity pleading for aid like African countries in the same position would. This despite its massive unpaid debt which is being quietly expunged.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by JohnTitor »

Neshant wrote: How can any saver agree to be cheated indefinitely when it is obvious there is no intention to pay any of these debts at face value and maybe even not at all.
Funny thing is that India has been increasing T-bills. I wonder what these bankers think.

http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

It's gone from 113b to 148b in one year
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Austin »

China launched a tender for oil futures in yuan
The Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) started trading in oil futures, nominated in RMB, reports Xinhua .

The launching ceremony took place in the business district of Pudong. At the opening, the head of the State Securities Control Committee of the People's Republic of China, Liu Shiyu, stressed that the regulator "is determined and has the capacity to properly build and adjust the work of the oil futures market with Chinese characteristics."

On the site there are trades in supply contracts between September 2018 and March 2019. At the opening of the auction, the price of a barrel of oil was 440 yuan (almost $ 70). After 20 minutes on the site, 14 thousand contracts were signed. The trade margin is 7% of the total contract value. The upward and downward movements are limited to 5%.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Austin »

All you need to know about the 'trade war' between China and America

Suraj
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Suraj »

JohnTitor wrote:Funny thing is that India has been increasing T-bills. I wonder what these bankers think.
http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
It's gone from 113b to 148b in one year
Forex reserves in that period rose from $350 billion to $422 billion, i.e. less than half the increment into US treasuries.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by panduranghari »

Neshant wrote: Despite all the hub bub, Greece has not been reduced to a starving entity pleading for aid like African countries in the same position would. This despite its massive unpaid debt which is being quietly expunged.
Well that is not what is the ground reality. I have a medic friend. He knows whats going on because he is a Greek from Athens. He said there are no jobs. Only people really eating well are rural folks who farm. The rich always eat well. There is no new job creation. Hospitals have equipment shortage. Most of his extended family is looking for employment outside Greece.

Old article http://www.peoplesworld.org/article/aus ... suffering/

http://politicalcritique.org/world/eu/2 ... rent-fine/

Greek debt is not being expunged. If it was, then you would see a rise in the GDP as debt does weigh GDP down.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by panduranghari »

JohnTitor wrote: Funny thing is that India has been increasing T-bills. I wonder what these bankers think.

http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

It's gone from 113b to 148b in one year
We are afraid of the BOP crisis of 1991. We do not want a repeat and sending our gold to London. What else can RBI do? Mark Faber still believes the best managed central bank is RBI.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Suraj »

Neshant wrote: Despite all the hub bub, Greece has not been reduced to a starving entity pleading for aid like African countries in the same position would. This despite its massive unpaid debt which is being quietly expunged.
Greece, Iceland and Spain are for better or worse developed countries. They won't see UNICEF trucks with kids begging all around it soon. But don't confuse that for all being fine and dandy. It is their social safety net that keeps the population from mass destitution. Half the young people in Spain have no steady jobs. I have a Spanish friend who went back to Spain after her education in US, but immediately decamped for elsewhere after realizing that even her native Madrid was hopeless from a career perspective for her . Great place to visit, but under the the tourist friendly surface, it's apparent there's a lot of people struggling.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Neshant »

I don't see what these countries (Greece especially) produce that make them developed countries.
Tourism is about the only thing they have going yet Greece has a per capita income of 22736 USD !?.
Nothing justifies a high per capita income in those countries.

As for Greek debt, its definitely being expunged.
The modus operandi has been to have the IMF and EU as a whole "lend" money to Greece to repay (mostly) German & French banks.
Thereafter, Greece defaults on those IMF/EU loans down the line - and the EU's taxpayer and IMF member nations as a whole eats the loss.
That's why the EU was so eager to put in a European as head of the IMF once the Greek situation went pear shape.
Similar to the US where the losses of banks are transferred onto the taxpayer & national debt ledger, but with fancier footwork.
A nice bailout for the banks who get their bad loans to Greece made whole.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Austin »

Stephanie Pomboy: How the Fed Will Trigger the Next Crash

Ouch! What causes the next crisis?


In every meeting, the Fed has a brief discussion about the elevated level of financial assets and then says, “Oh, but all the fabulous post-crisis regulations will insulate us from any sort of repeat.” Recently, they seemed more concerned about the gap between asset prices and fundamentals. The problem is, if the markets correct materially, they have a real situation. The pension funding problem will be the next crisis. We are looking at a $4 trillion pension deficit across the public and private sectors in the U.S., after nine years of rampant asset inflation. That’s a stunning statistic. If the market corrects even 15%, and stays there, it will bore massive holes in pensions. New Jersey, Illinois, state after state, are struggling to figure out how to close this gap. This is a real problem the Fed will have to confront if the market goes down. For [Fed chief Jerome] Powell, there’s the additional burden of being the new guy. He can’t come in and, as his first act, blink. If they don’t tighten now, it will send panic to the Street.

So how does all this play out?


There are two ways a crisis can happen. The slow and boring way is the Fed tightening continues to ratchet up and turns the screws on households and speculative-grade corporations, and the markets begin to anticipate more defaults, and reprice credit risk. The more spectacular way is if stocks fall because of terrorists or North Korea or whatever, which brings the whole pension crisis to the fore. That would cause an immediate shift from Fed tightening to QE [quantitative easing] 4, 5, 6, and infinity.

How should investors position themselves?


Gaming when the unsustainable will finally be revealed as such is obviously tricky. My job is to identify what’s unsustainable and where the signals are. My own inclination would be to keep my powder dry; wait for the opportunities that will present themselves. If I were a long-only manager, I’d be underweighting U.S. risk assets versus, let’s say, emerging markets and hard assets. You could hunker down in commodities: The CRB Index, on a relative performance basis, is near the lowest it has ever been.

I know everyone thinks that the 10-year is going to 4% or 3.5% or whatever, but we are more leveraged today than ever; our threshold for pain is lower than the market recognizes, so I’d be overweight long-dated Treasuries and underweight the dollar. Those four rate hikes will be chopped to three and then two, and people will actually start to talk about maybe they have to pause quantitative tightening.

Why aren’t people seeing things as you see them?


I can’t climb into everyone’s head. It’s a combination of things: One, QE was designed to punish responsible financial behavior. Two, there’s an institutional mandate to be fully invested now. If you’re running a mutual fund, you no longer have the option of holding any cash, so as QE forced people into the market, more and more people had to get long, even if earnings weren’t there. That set up the momentum thing. Three, if you’re running a hedge fund and trying to compete with the long-only managers buying the index, you’ve got to play the game. So the average hedge fund is net long. It’s hard to define the moment when the unsustainable stops being sustained, especially in this world of algorithm trading and passive investing. But this is all the more reason to be circumspect.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by panduranghari »

Neshant wrote: As for Greek debt, its definitely being expunged.
The modus operandi has been to have the IMF and EU as a whole "lend" money to Greece to repay (mostly) German & French banks.
Thereafter, Greece defaults on those IMF/EU loans down the line - and the EU's taxpayer and IMF member nations as a whole eats the loss.
That's why the EU was so eager to put in a European as head of the IMF once the Greek situation went pear shape.
Similar to the US where the losses of banks are transferred onto the taxpayer & national debt ledger, but with fancier footwork.
A nice bailout for the banks who get their bad loans to Greece made whole.
Where? http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000003177

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/service ... od=2018-02

Image

Greek reserve position is better than Canada. Canada is in G20.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Neshant »

Greeks "reserves" are nothing more than tens of billions of dollars handed to them by IMF & EU.

A country that has a mountain load of debt it was unable to pay would not be sitting on any significant reserves.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by panduranghari »

I do not think I can convince you ~(and I do not intend to).

But the reality is Greece will have to pay the price of living profligate for a long time. There is no two ways about it. A generation retired at the age of 50 years to live comfortably. It cannot go on and it did not.

Why dont you see calls for Greece to quit Euro from the Greeks themselves?

The national banks are capitalised quite well by the ECB. Look at their balance sheets. The problem is banks are not lending at the lax standards like they used to. This means even the government has no access to easy money. And that is what Yanis Varoufakis was complaining about.

Greece by contributing 3922 million euros ( at current prices) in gold has a membership of ECB. They can take those euros (in the form of gold) and leave. But they are still not. Look at their history. The drachma has been inflated 3 or 4 times last century. Then after 15 years they issue new notes in exchange of old ones where a 10000 old drachma = 1 new drachma. This is an old game. It keeps repeating.

While people clearly have problems, I really wonder if they would accept a repeatedly depreciating currency like drachma or a more stable Euro?

IMF has different goals than ECB. IMF needs to keep the current PhD. standard going. ECB needs to keep the current system running. It does not want to pull the pin on the grenade. But who knows- Draghi retires in September. Weidman is a hawk and he is German.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Neshant »

panduranghari wrote:
Why dont you see calls for Greece to quit Euro from the Greeks themselves?

They can take those euros (in the form of gold) and leave. But they are still not.
Quitting the euro would mean their debt burdens would go up not down.
The drachma is a currency nobody including the Greeks would want to hold.
Massive devaluation does not work if there is no industry in the country to speak of.
With all their debts denominated in euros, they would be trying to pay off a massive loan in a strong currency with a weak currency.

Second all those generous transfer payments from the more developed EU countries would be stopped.
As well would preferential trade treatment.
Next their educated population would flee the country for other EU states knowing the future would be even worse if they stayed in Greece.
Their businesses or what's left of it would be shut out of the EU.

Essentially no country can simply pack up and leave the euro as the system is designed to lock countries in and remove their soverignty.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Austin »

Money manager Michael Pento says the biggest unreported story is the skyrocketing interest rate of LIBOR. What’s that? Pento explains, “LIBOR, and people don’t understand or talk about it, is the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate. This rate has gone from 0.3% at the end of 2015 to 2.3% today. The London Inter-Bank Offered Rate is the rate that is applied to $370 trillion of loans and derivatives. I did not say “B” billion or “M” million, I said “T”. $370 trillion worth of derivatives and loans, from credit cards, to student loans, to auto loans are priced off of LIBOR. . . . That is the biggest reason why the stock market is rolling over because the cost of borrowing money . . . is going up very, very sharply. . . . All of this is going to hit a crescendo in October of 2018.”

Pento Says gold prices are going way up because the Fed will no be able to raise interest rates.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with money manager Michael Pento of PentoPort.com.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by darthNick »

Neshant wrote:Greeks "reserves" are nothing more than tens of billions of dollars handed to them by IMF & EU.

A country that has a mountain load of debt it was unable to pay would not be sitting on any significant reserves.
The situation is becoming better for Greece. Greek economy is doing better. I've read an article about real estate in Greece and there's info that market has started to grow last year. One of the reasons - it's euro country in eurozone, that's a big plus for investors from non-eu countries who want to move or have business in Europe, imho
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by ramana »

Austin, I heard on Bloomberg that LIBOR is going away by 2021 and some folks in US are trying to create a new rate secured to US Treasury rates.
they have 3 years of runway for this. LIBOR is unsecured the guy was saying. Watch this space.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Neshant »

A whole lot of what is called the financial and banking "industry" is going to evaporate in the next crash.

It produces nothing of value and can only survive by stealing from those who do produce value - primarily via the fiat monetary system.

Desperate to keep suckers locked into fiat currency that gets devalued to benefit a select few.

-----

India Bans Bitcoin Wallets, Bank Funding, All Cryptocurrency Services

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04- ... y-services
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Austin »

Jeff Gundlach // 2018 is payback time. Stocks will go down this year

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Austin »

What is alternative to US /EU T bills if some one wants to invest be it a country or individual that is of highest quality of Bond Rating and has liquidity of US/EU T bills ?
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Neshant »

Austin wrote:Jeff Gundlach // 2018 is payback time. Stocks will go down this year
I doubt stocks will ever go down drastically again.

What 2008/9 taught central banksters is that if the stock market dives, all hell breaks loose.

Since then they have been fighting hard to prevent any price discovery by rigging markets.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Austin »

No body has a crystal ball but Jeff knows what he says ....David Stock man says stock will dive 30-35 % in next crash
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Austin »

"We May Take A Hit": Trump Warns Investors To Prepare For "Pain" In The Market

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04- ... ain-market
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Austin »

The Spectator Index
‏ @spectatorindex
15h15 hours ago

Household debt as share of GDP, 2017.

Switzerland: 127%
Australia: 121%
Canada: 100%
S Korea: 94%
UK: 86.5%
US: 78.5%
Spain: 62%
France: 58%
Greece: 58%
Japan: 57%
Germany: 53%
China: 48%
Italy: 41%
Brazil: 21.6%
Turkey: 17%
Indonesia: 17%
Russia: 16%
Saudi: 14%
India: 11%
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Austin »

The Spectator Index
‏ @spectatorindex
20h20 hours ago

US government debt.

1998: $5.5 trillion
2008: $10 trillion
2018: $21 trillion

US government debt as share of GDP.

1998: 60%
2008: 67%
2018: 107%
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Neshant »

Austin wrote:No body has a crystal ball but Jeff knows what he says ....David Stock man says stock will dive 30-35 % in next crash
Those guys have been saying that for years.
They have been wrong for so long, odds are beginning to favor them being right...eventually.
That being said, 35% is not that much of a drop given the huge run-up over 10 years.

Those who based their decision on fundamentals since 2009 have ironically lost out on a decade of gains in the (rigged) stock market while watching their savings get inflated away.

We are living in times of crony capitalism.
My prediction is that it will crash once the herd jumps into stocks enabling banksters to exit with nice profits.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Austin »

Neshant wrote:
Austin wrote:No body has a crystal ball but Jeff knows what he says ....David Stock man says stock will dive 30-35 % in next crash
Those guys have been saying that for years.
They have been wrong for so long, odds are beginning to favor them being right...eventually.
That being said, 35% is not that much of a drop given the huge run-up over 10 years.

Those who based their decision on fundamentals since 2009 have ironically lost out on a decade of gains in the (rigged) stock market while watching their savings get inflated away.

We are living in times of crony capitalism.
My prediction is that it will crash once the herd jumps into stocks enabling banksters to exit with nice profits.
I agree with you on that part that they have been warning for years but consider this part that Markets are mostly on bull run and recession is once in 8 years in average the chances are odds will favor them only with longer time.

Thanks to these doomsday forecasters , I have believed in Gold and invested a decent part of portfolio in physical asset involving precious metals something I dare would not do has I not been on this board and listen to these folks

What you and I can do is to listen to them apply our own mind and build a crash proof or crash resistance portofilio while keeping an eye on the market.

What is your view on this one https://freefincal.com/the-permanent-po ... -investor/
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Neshant »

Austin wrote: What you and I can do is to listen to them apply our own mind and build a crash proof or crash resistance portofilio while keeping an eye on the market.
I remember talking to some guy shortly after the 2008 crash.
Apparently the "crash proof" part of his portfolio tracked the rest of his portfolio into the ground.
Your guess is just as likely to be right as the next guy on strategies.

The highest return on investment I've ever got by far is investing in skills related to my profession.
Its the one strategy that has worked for me consistently and which I'd recommend to anyone.
The investment has tended to be more so in time & effort than in monetary terms.
But sometimes that is the hardest thing to come by.

Another return on investment has been in the form of enjoyable life experiences.
Its nothing I could put into a safety deposit box or use as a currency down the road.
But some of it has value that is immeasurable.

I'm expecting to lose at least some wealth in the next crash.
I just hope I don't lose too much of it.
I am putting away a bigger than normal buffer in anticipation of that - while the going is still good.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by yensoy »

Austin wrote:The Spectator Index
‏ @spectatorindex
20h20 hours ago

US government debt.

1998: $5.5 trillion
2008: $10 trillion
2018: $21 trillion

US government debt as share of GDP.

1998: 60%
2008: 67%
2018: 107%
As life gets more stable and predictable; as cash flows are steady and cash requirements are regulated; these numbers will only increase. Debt can be rolled over ad infinitum, with the knowledge that the future generations are good to make interest payments. This also has a social security angle - the young pay out a "rent" to the older, vested generation many of who are retired. This "rent" is a stake in the economy - real estate which is needed in order to keep a job, loans needed to get educated in order to get the job, and tax to finance interest payments on government debt which was incurred ostensibly to grow the economy.

There is nothing surprising nor alarming here, at least yet.
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by Neshant »

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by panduranghari »

yensoy wrote:
There is nothing surprising nor alarming here, at least yet.
Why not?
yensoy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2494
Joined: 29 May 2002 11:31
Location: USA

Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by yensoy »

panduranghari wrote:
yensoy wrote:
There is nothing surprising nor alarming here, at least yet.
Why not?
Read the entire post and please let me know if something there doesn't add up. I thought I explained it.

US is "good for the money". Chinese debt? I'm not sure how that will play out...
KrishnaK
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Posts: 964
Joined: 29 Mar 2005 23:00

Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Post by KrishnaK »

Japan's economic miracle
Since the late 1990s, the growth in Japan’s real GDP per head has outperformed every other major economy. And unlike other major economies, income inequality in Japan has not increased, remaining amongst the lowest in the developed world


The article says given Japan's working age population is going down dramatically, it's GDP is actually doing swimmingly well.
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