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Perspectives on the global economic changes

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Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Suraj » 13 Oct 2013 02:36


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 13 Oct 2013 09:00

Keiser Report Episode 509

Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert take issue with David Cameron’s claim that profit is not a dirty word, arguing that profits are whatever an accounting trick (or fraud) says they are, particularly when an executive’s bonus is tied to this fabricated number. While profits as a percentage of GDP are at an all -time high, investment is at an all-time low. And instead of investing, businesses are handing cash back to their shareholders – a tactic once reserved for executives who had run out of ideas

http://rt.com/shows/keiser-report/episo ... eiser-049/

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 13 Oct 2013 10:47

How long can US keep increasing Debt Ceiling and keep printing money ? Today its ~ 17 T tomorrow it is $ 25 T

It looks like an exercise in eternity , coz they they do is increase ceiling and borrow more money ........is this due to US Reserve currency status and does it involve any financial backlash in near or long time for US ?

How about the other reserve currency like Euro , Can they keep borrowing money from ECB by raising debt ceiling along US lines ?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Suraj » 13 Oct 2013 23:21

The whole concept of fighting over a debt ceiling appears like useless political theater. Here's how I understand the process works:
a) All spending measures are initiated in the lower house, i.e. the House of Representatives or Congress. It then goes into Senate, which can pass, decline or amend it, and then to the President once both houses approve.
b) If a budget is never passed for the year for any reason, the congressmen can vote for a Continuing Resolution (CR) which means 'we spend the same $$s on the same stuff as we did last year'.
c) If the spending exceeds revenues, the difference gets added to the fiscal deficit.
d) If the fiscal deficit exceeds the debt ceiling, they authorize its raising to account for the higher level.

In effect the whole process is broken - they authorize spending first - without being certain of future revenues - and then fight over whether or not the cumulative deficit (debt ceiling) is acceptable. Even if they don't authorize spending (i.e. pass a budget) but the deficit growth from a CR measure exceeds the debt ceiling, they will still fight. Such political theater.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 13 Oct 2013 23:59

Gold Reserves as of June 2013

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reser ... d_holdings

Among BRIC countries Brazil keeps lowest Gold reserves about 67.0 T and 1 % of their Forex Reserves

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby SwamyG » 14 Oct 2013 00:14

In her book, "How The West Really Lost God: A new theory of secularization" Mary Eberstadt cites the decline of family to be a factor of the global economic crisis.

Excerpts from pages 14/15
As does not seem to be well understood, at least as yet, this smoldering European economic crisis would not even exist without an underlying, multifaceted crisis brought on by the decline of the family. That is because the shrinkage of the family across the West in simple numerical terms has come to mean that in Western economies too few younger workers support the older ones - certainly fewer than the visionaries and politicians who authored the modern welfare states imagined. The fact that sustaining these welfare states has in effect become a Ponzi scheme is by now perhaps indeed the single most pressing fact of politics - and it is a fact grounded in turn on the changing the Western family.


In showing how tight is the relation of economic woes to low fertility and related changes, she writes {page 15}
Demographer Nicolas Eberstadt, for one, has argued that the "costs associated with population aging are estimated to account for about half the public-debt run-up of the O.E.C.D economies over the past 20 years.


...Ali Alichi, an economist with International Monetary Fund, has pointed out that the older citizens, for example, have less incentive to repay debt - another prosaic fact now having global reverberations. "As the number of older voters relative to younger ones increases around the globe," he observes, "the creditworthiness of borrowing countries could decline - resulting in less external lending and more soverign debt defaults".


Elsewhere in the book, she quotes and cites several other scholars about the revival of the "family system" in the West as a consequence of the economic crisis.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 14 Oct 2013 11:26

^^ Trace this thing to its roots and you will find the monetary system (more specifically those who control it and are milking the productive economy of its wealth) to be responsible for the collapsing demographics of the middle class.

Despite enormous increases in productivity and innovation, the gains are skimmed off via the paper money racket and land up in the pockets of those who do nothing to deserve it. E.g the banking "industry".

Fewer and fewer people can afford to start and support families and fewer still can have one spouse at home taking care of the kid. Meanwhile trillions of dollars in productive output gets stolen through the inflation and money printing racket devised by central bankers who really are just a front for private banking interests.

The only way to reverse this trend is to return the power of money to those who EARN it, not those who want control over it through shysterism.

The more bullsh@t "industries" like banking that produce nothing of value arise, the worse off the productive economy gets. That is because these parasites can only survive by subsisting off the productive energies primarily of the middle class. The result is that the middle class is drained of its energies, security and wealth and fewer families come into existance.


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Theo_Fidel » 14 Oct 2013 22:11

SwamyG,

Is he complaining of values decline or demographic decline. It is very confusing just reading that excerpt.

The demographic shrinkage of family has everything to do with the crippling cost of raising children these days. A minimum of 20 years of education are required and society, meaning old folks, are less and less willing to help support this cost. Direct effect is young folks refuse to have children.

The other factor is that women are uncomfortable with becoming baby factories. The USA is notorious for zero help with child birth and rearing but even in EU the costs borne by women is staggering. Lots of children benefit men but not women so much. Is it any surprise that women quit having children first chance they get.

You want children but don’t want to pay for it. Hypocrisy is always rewarded with a swift kick in the rear end.
-----------------------------------

BTW this demographic collapse is happening around the world. First opportunity women get to quit having kids they take to it like ducks to water. In India some many couple I know now have 1 kid. When in India even 2 kids is not enough for replacement.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Theo_Fidel » 15 Oct 2013 01:34

The debt ceiling fight will be over soon as Obama has again casually mentioned the 14th amendment. You know the one put in to prevent the Southern Slavery States from paralyzing the US government with their crazy brinksmanship after they were let back in. Seems like this stunt scared enough people in the North that they specifically put in an amendment to prevent the South from ever imploding the government to get even. So now we have "Appeals to Heaven" and the Confederate flag flying outside the white house, it is clear Obama has no problems using the 14th to end this fight permanently.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/08/opini ... d=all&_r=0

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby TSJones » 15 Oct 2013 01:41

^^^^^^You are assuming that the leadership in DC is completely sane. They may not be, and could be caught in the passion of politcal power play. Sort of like an elephant in must. Or, as I have pointed out before, the French Revolution and the guillotine.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Satya_anveshi » 15 Oct 2013 03:16


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby prahaar » 15 Oct 2013 06:27

Theo_Fidel wrote:The other factor is that women are uncomfortable with becoming baby factories. The USA is notorious for zero help with child birth and rearing but even in EU the costs borne by women is staggering. Lots of children benefit men but not women so much. Is it any surprise that women quit having children first chance they get.

You want children but don’t want to pay for it. Hypocrisy is always rewarded with a swift kick in the rear end.


In Scandinavia, child benefits are much more comprehensive. The staggering cost paid by women is because of breakdown in family structure. The state cannot provide a spouse to take care of the child after it has come back from the day care nor can it keep the child for 24 hours. Single parent households need to face a lot of stress, but no one wants to say this, since people ask questioning the motives who raise this point - I am not referring to you, but talking about the social taboo in N. Europe.

Too much of state interference in family matters leads to high inefficiencies, both in terms of results and also in terms of high costs.

The highlighted text, is a bold claim. Do you suggest that children in US take care of only their fathers and not mothers? The way I see it, in N.Europe, elderly are the responsibility of the state (largely), irrespective of the sex of the parent.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 15 Oct 2013 06:48

The SEC is largely a useless organization that private banks control.

Despite massive amounts of financial fraud, they pretend as if nothing has happened.

No charges are filed and none of the bankers go to jail.

Its all just "settlements" paid for by a fraction of the profits made by banks committing the fraud.

Its a frightening look into how banking goons take over & corrupt the government. Its one of the many reasons central banking is a pestilence upon democracy. It opens the door for all kinds of parasites looking to rob the system through control over the monetary system, bribery & corruption.

Now watch the babbling fools of the SEC avoid answering the question : "Has any banker been brought to trial".

____

"Too Big to Fail has become Too Big for Trial"


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Theo_Fidel » 15 Oct 2013 20:22

prahaar wrote:In Scandinavia, child benefits are much more comprehensive. The staggering cost paid by women is because of breakdown in family structure.

The highlighted text, is a bold claim. Do you suggest that children in US take care of only their fathers and not mothers? The way I see it, in N.Europe, elderly are the responsibility of the state (largely), irrespective of the sex of the parent.


I don’t think so. Women in married relationships bear just as much of a heavy burden. Think of the time spent, child rearing, washing, cleaning, emergencies, illnesses, stay at home, etc. All these inflict economic costs on the earning potential, self advancement, and ability to provide for young. They also pay a price in domestic abuse.

The best evidence for this is marriage rates are rising while children born is declining. It is obvious women are voting with both their feet. The childless rate is highest amongst the most educated and most likely to be married group, meaning those society supports the most yet apparently this is still not enough. It is single moms who have more kids due to accidents and poor planning. Women who have control choose not to have kids. These days single moms self sterilize after their first ‘accident’.

http://www.datalounge.com/cgi-bin/iowa/ ... ad,9849766

Today 18% of women don’t want children at all in the USA. I have absolutely no doubt that given a choice women in India would say the same.

http://www.salon.com/2010/06/25/childle ... _increase/

Today 49% of births in America are unintended per the NIH. Half of americans were conceived accidentally. As soon as women have control they eliminate these unintended pregnancies. 10% of all child births end in voluntary sterilization. Think about that for a second, at the moment when a women should be most happy at having a child she decides she will never do this again.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2492586/
--------------------------------------

No comment on your statement about kids looking after their parents. I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. At least in the west people don't have children only to become dependent on them in old age. Not something to look forward too IMHO.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby prahaar » 15 Oct 2013 21:00

Theoji it is you who made the statement that more children benefit men and not women, sans substantiation. No more from me on this, since it will be OT.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Theo_Fidel » 15 Oct 2013 21:41

Prahaar,
No need for the Ji.
I would take this outrage more seriously if folks gave their wife's last name to their children. Until then it is denialism.

It maybe OT but I think this demographic collapse will have a huge impact on the world economy.
Women are clearly voting with their feet to avoid having children.
At some point as a society we will have to address their reluctance and make it worth their while.

I found it annoying that the authors of that book bloviate about all the 'strategic' effects without addressing the primary reason.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 15 Oct 2013 22:19

Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss stop logic and victory vomit in a de-Americanized world. In the second half, Max interviews Rowan Bosworth-Davies, a former fraud squad detective, about crime being what you call it – so let’s call it a racket, or organized crime, as it is practiced in the City of London.

http://rt.com/shows/keiser-report/episo ... eiser-172/

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Theo_Fidel » 16 Oct 2013 00:11

TSJones wrote:^^^^^^You are assuming that the leadership in DC is completely sane. They may not be, and could be caught in the passion of politcal power play. Sort of like an elephant in must. Or, as I have pointed out before, the French Revolution and the guillotine.


TSJ,

It appears you were right and we are headed over the edge.
Palin & the Guillotine is a scary image. Remember those poor turkeys.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby TSJones » 16 Oct 2013 01:31

The oligarchs have lost control of their stooges, I fear. Although it is indeed fitting that the stooges may cost the oligarchs billions in their investments. A perverse justice, but justice none the less.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Theo_Fidel » 16 Oct 2013 01:40

Dow is down a 133 points. Tomorrow is going to be absolute carnage.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Suraj » 16 Oct 2013 01:43

Futures are actually looking a bit up because of YHOO and INTC reporting good earnings, but at this point markets look more like they're stuck in a will-they-wont-they flux .

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby TSJones » 16 Oct 2013 02:14

The oligarchs holdings in the bond markets could take it in the neck as also.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Suraj » 16 Oct 2013 03:40

Futures are down after Fitch put the US AAA rating on a downgrade watchlist. That should ensure a healthy down day tomorrow, unless GoP manages to get together a vote in Congress tonight.

Added: Bloomberg just reported that no House vote is likely tonight.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby TSJones » 16 Oct 2013 04:09

All my stuff is in money market mutual fund. Hope it holds up.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby chanakyaa » 16 Oct 2013 04:35

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-15/china-presses-u-s-to-lift-debt-limit-as-tea-party-says-butt-out.html


China, the U.S.’s largest creditor abroad, urged American lawmakers opposed to raising the debt limit by tomorrow to get out of the way. Tea Party Republicans’ response: mind your own business....

Chinese are worried that all the cheapo goods they have been sending were for nothing...haha. Well, in theory, they could dump US Treasuries. It is easier said than done. I guess US would stop importing from China over long run, but at this stage of globalization the relation is mutual and symbiotic..

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Satya_anveshi » 16 Oct 2013 04:44

^^ that's why I termed one of the above posted report as "lifafa." Basically US admin is using chinese "pressure" to influence domestic opposition.
Given that one of the Chinese agencies has already termed the raising debt limit as equivalent of defaulting, does it matter to Chinese if US asks them to take 10%(as an example) haircut, inflates the currency by 10%, or like in past asks them to adjust the currency upward by 10%?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby chanakyaa » 16 Oct 2013 05:25

Satya_anveshi wrote:^^ that's why I termed one of the above posted report as "lifafa." Basically US admin is using chinese "pressure" to influence domestic opposition.
Given that one of the Chinese agencies has already termed the raising debt limit as equivalent of defaulting, does it matter to Chinese if US asks them to take 10%(as an example) haircut, inflates the currency by 10%, or like in past asks them to adjust the currency upward by 10%?

If they have already determined that the US has defaulted, why are they sending billions of dollars of Chinese sweat products to a defaulted country whose IOUs are worthless? If the trillions of dollars of treasuries are not worth a dime of leverage, then I guess it does not matter.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby wrdos » 16 Oct 2013 06:05

Empty Stomach
http://www.economist.com/node/21587989? ... tystomachs

ONE in eight people went hungry in 2012, or 870m, according to a study by the UN's Food and Agricultural Organisation (defined as a diet of fewer than 1,800 calories a day). Children are especially affected as hunger harms physical and cognitive development. The Global Hunger Index, devised by the International Food Policy Research Institute, a think-tank based in Washington, DC, tracks the progress in combating hunger and undernourishment, which includes the quality as well as the quantity of a diet. The index covers 120 developing countries that account for 84% of the world’s population. It is composed of three equally weighted measures: the percentage of people that are undernourished; the under-five population that are underweight; and the under-five mortality rate. While the overall world index has decreased by 34% since 1990, some 19 countries—with a total population of 1.6 billion—are classified as having "alarming" or "extremely alarming" levels of hunger. Most are in Africa and Asia, where natural disasters and climate change make places there particularly vulnerable to food scarcity.


Image

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Satya_anveshi » 16 Oct 2013 08:46

chanakyaa wrote:If they have already determined that the US has defaulted, why are they sending billions of dollars of Chinese sweat products to a defaulted country whose IOUs are worthless?

TINA is one explanation. Also in other words the "show must go on" lest the factories will stop and there is social chaos. Even for US, the show must go on is applicable otherwise the real sartorial conditions of the emperor ( or the lack thereof) become public.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby TSJones » 16 Oct 2013 13:35

chanakyaa wrote:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-15/china-presses-u-s-to-lift-debt-limit-as-tea-party-says-butt-out.html


China, the U.S.’s largest creditor abroad, urged American lawmakers opposed to raising the debt limit by tomorrow to get out of the way. Tea Party Republicans’ response: mind your own business....

Chinese are worried that all the cheapo goods they have been sending were for nothing...haha. Well, in theory, they could dump US Treasuries. It is easier said than done. I guess US would stop importing from China over long run, but at this stage of globalization the relation is mutual and symbiotic..


The Chinese warning the Tea Party is like the US warning Mao's Red Guard back in the 1960s. I don't think trhe world quite understands who they are attempting to communicate with. These are dangerous a$$holes. They are not normal politicians right now. They are not in sane control, they are in the "zone" of political fervor.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby chanakyaa » 16 Oct 2013 15:11

Satya_anveshi wrote:
chanakyaa wrote:If they have already determined that the US has defaulted, why are they sending billions of dollars of Chinese sweat products to a defaulted country whose IOUs are worthless?

TINA is one explanation. Also in other words the "show must go on" lest the factories will stop and there is social chaos. Even for US, the show must go on is applicable otherwise the real sartorial conditions of the emperor ( or the lack thereof) become public.

Agree. The unrest from factory closures would be too much for the Chinese. 10-15%haircut is not bad after all. Plus they get to steal the technologies in the process. Not a bad deal.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby SwamyG » 16 Oct 2013 17:18

First, she the author is not complaining. Second, decline of family is a factor that has made the West less capable to handle the economic crisis.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby panduranghari » 16 Oct 2013 17:55

Austin wrote:How long can US keep increasing Debt Ceiling and keep printing money ? Today its ~ 17 T tomorrow it is $ 25 T

It looks like an exercise in eternity , coz they they do is increase ceiling and borrow more money ........is this due to US Reserve currency status and does it involve any financial backlash in near or long time for US ?

How about the other reserve currency like Euro , Can they keep borrowing money from ECB by raising debt ceiling along US lines ?


The fundamental difference between Euro and Dollar is 2 fold;
1.Euro is trans national. Thus its not going to print to bail a country out. Amply demonstrated in the case of Greece.

2.Euro is not backed by gold but they float the price of gold. Gold accounts for 15% of reserves when Euro started. If price of gold rises the bank balance rises. If Gold falls the Currency strengthens.

The whole idea that Euro was thought out because every currency defaults at some stage. The dollar will fall on its own sword and die. Every 40 odd years there is a massive currency issue in the west. They have taken away the only element which would allow the currency to remain stable.

You may have heard of BANCOR, AMERO and what not. They problem with this thought is there is a overwhelming interest in ensuring its backed by something. Money is meant for spending. Why save it. Save something tangible and then the whole issue becomes so much more easy to look at.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby panduranghari » 16 Oct 2013 18:03

TheoFidel wrote:Today 18% of women don’t want children at all in the USA. I have absolutely no doubt that given a choice women in India would say the same.


Really. My SHQ gave up a very high paid and associated career progression job to raise children. She was never forced to. She loves most of it. It will be false to claim she enjoys every minute of it as it can be hard sometimes.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby vishvak » 16 Oct 2013 19:48

The whole idea that Euro was thought out because every currency defaults at some stage. The dollar will fall on its own sword and die. Every 40 odd years there is a massive currency issue in the west. They have taken away the only element which would allow the currency to remain stable.

Very interesting. Have to give credit to Europeans for this. Though UK stayed out of that! This should be taught in collage cources.

Any idea what happens when US Senate can't deal with current US Republican machinations against Senate vote on paying debt. Just a wild estimate on loss or part thereof of wealth since internal US debt can be dealt with by USA legal courts.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 16 Oct 2013 20:01

Senate leaders reach deal to avoid default, end shutdown
http://rt.com/usa/senate-leaders-reach- ... fault-269/

Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-New Hampshire) told the Associated Press early Wednesday that leaders in her chamber reached a deal that would end a shutdown now in its second week, while also raising the nation’s debt ceiling and in turn increasing the country’s ability to borrow from international lenders.

The deal would keep the government open through at least January 15, the AP reported, and the debt ceiling would be raised through February 7.

Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio), the speaker of the House of Representatives, is prepared to rely on Democratic votes in Congress to approve the bipartisan deal, NBC News correspondent Kelly O’Donnell heard from sources.

Moments earlier, Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Georgia) told National Public Radio, "I think folks on both sides of the aisle in the Senate are ready to get this done.”

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby TSJones » 16 Oct 2013 20:07

^^^^^^^There are no guarantees that the House will pass this although it is a step in the right direction.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Suraj » 16 Oct 2013 20:44

The house is still Republican controlled and can scuttle this deal. While a deal may come, I'm not certain it will be done by tomorrow. It may take a few days, while others debate what constitutes being in default. As some have argued, they went into default when the government shut down. There'll probably be lots of volatility, but probably not some Lehman day style market crash.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 16 Oct 2013 20:45

The point every one in the world will ask what will happen in Feb 2014 .....do we still have to go over this all over again......another deadline another drama and it goes on.

I suspect as the election draw closer the voice will get more shriller and how long will they keep borrowing and keep increasing the ceiling .....what about fisical consolidation and cutting expenses and pay off these debts or curtail it to some fix limits.

I wont be surprised China calling for de-americinised ecomony will take a life of its own.


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