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Perspectives on the global economic changes

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Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 03 Jan 2017 15:16

Neshant wrote:China is worried US is going to put an end to endless trade surpluses China builds up against the US and the continual drain of manufacturing jobs from US to China.

They are also afraid Trump will not hesitate to retaliate militarily if they heckle the US too much in Asia. Hence the reason China quickly returned the US submersible which they "confiscated" in the South China Sea recently right after Trump tweeted his annoyance over them taking US property. I guarantee they won't pull that stunt again.

Just the image of Trump sends the message that Pimp Daddy is on the block and you best be on your best behavior..


I dont know really how US can do that , If they impose 45 % tarrif as DT says then there would be counter tarrif from China and they could end up going to WTO .....and good made in US would turn out to be expensive for US customers.

Military option is certainly not possible , China is a nuclear power and are strong conventionally in their backyard.

I suspect DT rhetoric is to please his vote bank and part of negotiating tactics with China , He would says I achieved x y or z and I got that from China which wont be much really.

In the end US has to go through Great Recession to cleanse the system and it is very normal for capitalist economy to go through it , the US simply delayed that by using conventional monetary policy ....Though its not DT fault but it will fall on his lap and will happen under his watch.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 08 Jan 2017 13:06

Obama Hands Trump Huge Bubble


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby ramana » 10 Jan 2017 04:39

Also with Yellen chomping at the interest rate bit, a debt bomb has been handed over.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 10 Jan 2017 10:50

interestingly, Prince was a gold bug. who knew?

astonishing piece of silliness to have all that wealth but not enough sense to leave a will.

-----
Prince Owned Nearly $1 Million in Gold Bars When He Died

On Friday, the Carver County District Court released records detailing an inventory of Prince’s estate. While the inventory isn’t complete—unreleased recordings and videos weren’t factored into it, for example—there were some notable but not entirely surprising revelations, like the fact that Prince kept a stash of 67 gold bars and owned no stocks or bonds.

The Star-Tribune reports Prince owned 12 properties worth an estimated $25.4 million. He also had $110,000 in four different bank accounts, and the 67 10-ounce gold bars, which are worth approximately $840,000. Prince’s companies— Paisley Park Enterprises Inc., NPG Records Inc., NPG Music Publishing and LotusFlow3r—had nearly $6 million in cash at the time of his death.

Not included in the asset inventory are a number of Prince’s personal items, including the motorcycle from the Purple Rain, his jewelry, and his unreleased recordings and videos. The value of Prince’s song catalogue and other trademarks wasn’t included in the inventory, either.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/prince-owned- ... 02154.html

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 10 Jan 2017 15:10

He made the right investment , no stocks bonds surprising just gold bars . cash and property .........sad he passed away early

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 10 Jan 2017 22:48

Jim Rogers, Jim Rickards, and More… The Great Repression Conference – Highlights Reel

https://www.moneymorning.com.au/video/2 ... ights-reel

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 11 Jan 2017 10:45

ramana wrote:Also with Yellen chomping at the interest rate bit, a debt bomb has been handed over.


Ramana check this

What is Obama leaving for Trump on US Economy ( Stastics )

http://video.foxnews.com/v/5277541776001

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Suraj » 11 Jan 2017 23:43

Jeff Gundlach speaks:
Investors should look to Japan and India: DoubleLine Capital’s Gundlach
While U.S. stocks continue to climb, Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive of DoubleLine Capital has told investors it's a good time to take a step back from some of their stateside stock holdings and buy assets in India and Japan.

In his first investor webcast of the year, Gundlach discussed his outlook for 2017, saying that after the recent run-up in the U.S. stock markets, investors should look to "peel-off" their exposure to equities. Gundlach, known on Wall Street as the Bond King, said he expected markets to reverse their post-election moves.

He attributed this to high political uncertainties surrounding President-elect Donald Trump's policies and their impact on the U.S. economy. He warned of a sell-off around Inauguration Day on January 20.

Gundlach further highlighted that India and Japan were attractive equity investments but warned of Europe due to political risks in the continent, especially with elections due later this year in France and the Netherlands.

"It would be best to avoid European assets because of upcoming French and Dutch elections," he said.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 12 Jan 2017 00:00

I would say just sell of your stocks and get out on a high , goes for India too .........if US stocks fall you can be assured that India would be falling too the following morning or if Interest rates go high than FII would be taking out money and tanking out stock.

Any ways not a good time to be into stocks any where , Japan does it even have an economy ?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Suraj » 12 Jan 2017 00:02

Why not just sell everything and escape to a hut in rural Montana with your gun and a supply of canned goods to wait out the apocalypse ? :)

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 12 Jan 2017 00:07

Suraj wrote:Why not just sell everything and escape to a hut in rural Montana with your gun and a supply of canned goods to wait out the apocalypse ? :)


Well you can do that if you want too but if you are in India you can be in good quality bonds of GSEC types , atleast I am into it , pretty safe bet or buy gold

Stocks are at all time high and we are into 8th year since last recession in 2008 and market fall , you can take your bet still ;)

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Suraj » 12 Jan 2017 00:18

Boss, you're the apocalyptic gold bug who's always quoting the likes of Schiff, whose funds are dogs that don't keep up with equities or bonds.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 12 Jan 2017 10:02

Suraj wrote:Boss, you're the apocalyptic gold bug who's always quoting the likes of Schiff, whose funds are dogs that don't keep up with equities or bonds.


I am not a gold bug but I understand the value of keeping physical gold atelast some percentage of asset , Peter schiff and Jim Rickard dont recommend keeping more than 5-10 % of your asset in physical gold ...so much for being a gold bug , I would say keep 20-25 % if you can afford to .....Even Prince understood the value of gold and kept away from stocks and bonds , Who ever gave him financial advise it was a very sound one at that , Cash , Property , Gold is what he had

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby panduranghari » 12 Jan 2017 20:45

Schiff is a broken record. Rickards is a shill. Gundlach called the 30 year bond market top to the hour.

Schiff looks at macro and expects the USD to go to zero. He is not wrong. He is early. If you are 1 step ahead of the crowd like Gundlach is, then you have foresight. If you are 2 steps ahead, then you are a madman.

While I listen to Schiff, he is so god damned boring. No new perspective. Gold to the moon and USD to toilet. He has been saying that for ages. He will be correct eventually.

Just because the outcome is inevitable does not make it imminent.

When it happens, there will be others who will also crawl out of wood work and say - HA! I TOLD YOU SO.

Listen to Gundlach, Bill Gross. When the US 10 year yeild goes to 2.60%, I think the game will be up. By then the USDX will be somewhere close to 150, i think.

Suraj,
Another one whom I recommend you listen to is - Rick Rule. He is truly awesome prognosticator.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 12 Jan 2017 23:24

panduranghari wrote:Listen to Gundlach, Bill Gross. When the US 10 year yeild goes to 2.60%, I think the game will be up. By then the USDX will be somewhere close to 150, i think.


Seems in 52 weeks it already reached 2.60 at some point

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGG10YR:IND

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Suraj » 13 Jan 2017 01:00

Austin: my point is that Schiff is only as good as his track record, which is poor, in relation to the general market.

I listen to Gundlach because he's shown a tremendous level of analytical insight into his decision making and has made multiple decisions on rate and market movements that have been very accurate. Not perfect, but very accurate - far more so than most other major fund managers. He was a star at TCW, and after they kicked him out, he wiped the floor with them at his own Doubleline. As disclosure, I followed him out of TCW with my own investments and put them into his original Doubleline funds and have been very happy with their results since inception.

The problem with Schiff is that he says the same thing forever - as panduranghari said - and waits for the day he'll be right. Until then his recommendations and performance are a dog that loses money for anyone who listens to him, just for the sake of being as right as a stopped clock, i.e. every once in a while.

You and I benefit far more from listening to someone who consistently manages to score runs, rather than someone who keeps getting out cheaply while asserting he'll one day score six off the last ball of a match.

Panduranghari: I track Gundlach and Hasenstab more than I do Gross. There was a time when Gross was great, but I think he's lost his touch with age. He forced El-Erian out of PIMCO and got himself kicked out too.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 13 Jan 2017 14:19

Suraj , my own opinion was to be out of any stock investment because we all know Stock are at an all time high and any investment done today with short term gain in mind might just end up in down , however if you are into long term ~ 12-15 years via stocks/mf then it is fine. The last time BSE index touched 30k was in May when modi was elected after that it has been roller coaster.

Again since i am based in India its just my own personal opinion based on my moyopic Indian view of market and a squint eye on global market and economy

On Gold I think it would be wise to keep atleast 20-25 % of investment in physical gold as hedge and as inflation beating investment. Nothing to do with Schiff he does not go beyond 10 % , Property (renting out ) and Cash ( FD/GSEC/Saving ) are quite safe investment too.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 13 Jan 2017 14:20

While we are at it , Jim Rickards New Book "The Road To Ruins" and he is recommending the following all weather portfolio to quote from his book


" The superstructure of a robust all-weather portfolio to preserve wealth in the coming collapse and mitigate an ice-nine asset freeze looks like this:

Physical gold and silver, 10 percent (coins and bars, no numismatics)
Cash, 30 percent (some in physical notes)
Real estate, 20 percent (income producing or agricultural)
Fine art fund, 5 percent (museum quality only)
Angel and early venture capital, 10 percent (FinTech, natural resource, water)
Hedge funds, 5 percent (global macro, long-short equity, or arbitrage)
Bonds, 10 percent (high-quality sovereigns only)
Stocks, 10 percent (natural resource, mining, energy, utilities, tech only)

A family business should not be counted among investible assets. It should be held outside this portfolio. All of these assets, except cash, stocks, and bonds, can be held by direct title in physical or contractual form without reliance on banks brokers, exchanges, or digital records. Those assets cannot be hacked. Some are illiquid. Most are immune from ice-nine lockdowns. This allocation offers protection from inflation, deflation, and panics.

Importantly, investors must be vigilant and nimble. The time will come when the cash allocation needs to be moved quickly into another category, perhaps land, gold, or art. Likewise bonds may need to be sold once inflation emerges. This is not a “set it and forget it” portfolio. Still, it’s a good starting place for uncertain times."

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 13 Jan 2017 15:13


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby A_Gupta » 13 Jan 2017 20:48

This is worth a read:
http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/01/ ... tions.html
Three, Four... Many Secular Stagnations!
Summers’s core fear is that the global economy—or, at least, the North Atlantic chunk of it—will be stuck for a generation or more in a situation in which, if investors have realistically expectations, then even if central banks reduce interest rates to accommodate those expectations and even if governments follow sensible but not extravagant fiscal policies, private financial markets will still fail to support a level of investment demand compatible with full employment.


Such “badly behaved investment demand and savings supply functions,” as Martin Feldstein called them when he taught this stuff to me at Harvard back in 1980, could have seven underlying causes:

1. High income inequality, which boosts savings too much because the rich can't think of other things they'd rather do with their money. (Hobson)

2. Technological and demographic stagnation that lowers the return on investment and pushes desired investment spending down too far. (Hansen)

3. Non-market actors whose strong demand for safe, liquid assets is driven not by assessments of market risk and return but rather by political factors or by political risk. (Bernanke)

4. A broken financial sector that fails to mobilize the risk-bearing capacity of society and thus drives too large a wedge between the returns on risky investments and the returns on safe government debt. (Rogoff)

5. Very low actual and expected inflation, which means that even a zero safe nominal rate of interest is too high to balance desired investment and planned savings at full employment. (Krugman, Blanchard)

6. Limits on the demand for investment goods coupled with rapid declines in the prices of those goods, which together put too much downward pressure on the potential profitability of the investment-goods sector.

7. Technological inappropriateness, in which markets cannot figure out how to properly reward those who invest in new technologies even when the technologies have enormous social returns—which in turn lowers the private rate of return on investment and pushes desired investment spending down too far.


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby panduranghari » 15 Jan 2017 00:21

Are you going to believe a random poster called George Washington on zerohedge? Come on we are better than that.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 15 Jan 2017 12:55

^^ A little CT is good for health :lol:


Gundlach: Bond Market ‘Ridiculously’ Oversold



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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby panduranghari » 16 Jan 2017 18:24

He would say that wont he? His fund lost 8 billion $ in net outflows for the year 2016. The risk is what happens with banks in Europe, it may accelerate the outflows from bonds as they are facing a recurrent short squeeze.With US fiscal deficit expected to rise by Oct 2017, the 4 rate rises predicted for this year and with dollar reparations back to US as demanded by Trump, the buy back of shares will only rise aggravating the bond price to fall and bond yeilds to rise. I expect more money will leave bonds and move into equities.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 17 Jan 2017 16:52

Peter Schiff vs. Clueless Liberals on MSNBC w/ Chris Hayes


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 17 Jan 2017 18:07

China in 2016 was the main engine of the world economy
Moscow. on 16 January. INTERFAX.RU - China's economy grew by about 6.7% in 2016, according to preliminary estimates of the National Statistical Office (CSO) of the PRC. China's contribution to the rise of the global economy is more than 30%. Thus, China remains a leading engine of global GDP, said representatives of the department.

"New norm" develops According to them, in recent years the Chinese economy. Although the growth rate of the national economy slowing down, but they still remain quite high, said the agency "Xinhua".

The representative of the State Commission for Development and Reform Commission Xu Shaoshi said that the volume of the country's economy in the last year increased by about 5 trillion yen, and topped 70 trillion yuan ($ 10.1 trillion). He added, referring to the International Monetary Fund that the contribution of China to the global GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points compared to 0.3 percentage points in the United States.

The World Bank predicts that global economic growth will be around 2.4% last year.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 19 Jan 2017 11:26

Something more refreshing

Davos 2017 - An Insight, An Idea with Jack Ma


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 22 Jan 2017 13:03

Jim Rickards is predicting a massive currency war between China and US as DT prepares to label China as Currency Manipulator

China will react with Nuke Option of Massive devaluation of Yuan ......Jim Predicting China will go broke with just 1 Trillion of Usable Reserve

Check the video interview https://pro.agorafinancial.com/CWA_shoc ... 17/?h=true

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby g.sarkar » 22 Jan 2017 14:52

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/arti ... 2017-01-19
FINANCE
Is Europe Headed for a Political and Financial Crisis in 2017?

Jan 19, 2017
While most eyes are on the dramatic shifts possible for U.S. economic policy as Donald Trump is sworn in as president on January 20, similarly deep political currents are on the move in Europe. Indeed, the state of economic and political affairs there mirrors the seismic shift in the United States in many ways.
“In the U.S., the wave of populism has taken the form of the Republican Party. In Europe, it’s mostly manifested itself through the growth of extremist parties both on the left and the right,” explains Mauro Guillén, Wharton international management professor and director of The Lauder Institute.
This year, Europe’s economic growth will depend to an unusual degree on political developments, with three key elections coming up. Ground zero could turn out to be Italy. “Italy is where they were 20 years ago — they haven’t grown,” says Franklin Allen, an emeritus Wharton finance professor and executive director of the Brevan Howard Centre at Imperial College in London. Such sluggishness could have major consequences for Italian banks, whose growing trove of nonperforming loans have the potential to bring down banks all over Europe, he adds.
But one silver lining is the potential growth of European exports due to a stronger dollar, sparked by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s shift to a more hawkish stance that sees interest rates rising. Notes Guillén: “The rising value of the dollar represents an opportunity as eurozone exports become more competitive.”
The wrinkle, of course, is Trump’s unpredictability. His public comments about the U.S. dollar as being too strong compared to the Chinese yuan promptly sank the greenback, according to MarketWatch. The news site noted that Trump’s stance deviates from longstanding policies on the dollar adopted by prior administrations: “The strong dollar policy — a mantra of Democratic and Republican administrations for more than two decades — may be headed for the scrap heap.” So, growth in Europe from exports might not be a done deal.
Another problem for Europe is the coming set of unknowns on the political realm. “All countries are on a bit of a cliff,” says Olivier Chatain, strategy and business policy professor at the HEC business school in Paris and an academic senior fellow at Wharton’s Mack Institute for Innovation Management. “You have a risk of self-perpetuating political instability that can result in a self-reinforcing cycle of slow economic growth.”
Major leadership elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany in 2017 could indelibly change the course of the EU as an economic entity. Last year, both the U.K. and Italy saw the resignations of their prime ministers as a result of referendums, with the U.K. voting to leave the European Union in a “Brexit” and Italy rejecting constitutional reform that would have reduced political instability and bureaucracy, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations.
While the U.S. had a surprise upset by Trump and the U.K. experienced Brexit last year, Europe was spared any dramatic economic crisis. Wharton finance professor Joao Gomes explains says that 2016 presented no big problems and “wasn’t a bad year.” Most countries showed some growth. “Germany did very well. The U.K. didn’t do very badly. Italy didn’t do very badly. Spain had no government and did very well,” he said. “It could’ve been worse.” However, despite some European countries making some big political decisions, there has been no serious focus on the economy, which needs attention, Gomes says.
One positive note from the EU point of view was that 2016 ended with “no anti-Euro governments in power,” Gomes adds. Given the major elections on tap — each with anti-European Union candidates as strong contenders — that may not be the case a year from now, he says. That includes Marine Le Pen, France’s far right candidate who has taken the lead in the polls recently in the presidential race, according to The Daily Beast.
The Shape of Brexit
Probably the biggest shock in Europe last year was the U.K. vote to leave the EU. While the Brexit vote’s immediate consequence was the weakening of the pound to a 31-year-low against the U.S. dollar, the long-term consequences remain to be seen. When the U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May invokes Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which starts the process of withdrawing from the EU, formal negotiations will commence and could take two years. May pledges to pull the trigger at the end of March. However, much of the framework has yet to be decided, and trade deals between U.K. and the EU will have to be negotiated.
On Jan. 17, May drew a proverbial line in the sand by indicating that after Brexit, the U.K. aims to fully control its immigration and regulation policies. That will almost certainly result in the U.K. leaving the EU’s single market entirely with the EU itself wanting few if any remaining ties. The U.K. would have to negotiate trade deals with individual nations in Europe.
Even before May’s comments, it seemed clear that U.K. was likely headed for a tough time with the EU over Brexit. Chatain notes that other EU countries are not likely to let the U.K. exit smoothly with favorable conditions because it could tempt other members to exit, too. What is more, the U.K. has probably overestimated the willingness of governments in the EU, sore at Brexit, to keep the status quo in trade relations in some way.
.....

Gautam

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 23 Jan 2017 18:16

David Stockman: Trumped! Political Revolt We've Been Waiting For


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 26 Jan 2017 11:47

I have this question may be some one can clarify this , Indian GDP say is ~ $2.2 trillion nominal when Rupee is 68 to 1 USD.

Lets assume if Rupee to USD strengthens to half and becomes 34 to 1 USD which means your nominal GDP increases and becomes double to almos $4.4 trillion and if Rupee becomes 16 to USD then it becomes $6.6 trillion.

But is that reality just because Rupee Strengths or Dollar Weakens significantly our GDP grows but in reality it might just be a paper value based on mere currency movement , So how does one go about calculating country Real GDP that is not pegged to any currency say USD some Universal Way to do it which can be accurate as well ?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 26 Jan 2017 12:52

GDP calculations are largely bogus.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 30 Jan 2017 10:31

A pretty good summary of what's fueling a populist revolt in the west by one of BR's members.

Do you agree, Austin bhaiya..

csaurabh wrote:I just had an insight into Trump movement in the USA.

It is a revolt of the American 'shudras' against American 'vaishyas', 'kshatriyas' and 'brahmanas'.

In 1970, a normal American 'shudra' was a blue collar factory worker who had a well paid reasonably good job, a simple one, like operating a lathe machine or welding. From that point on, it really went downhill from there. First, large amounts of factory work was outsourced to China and Mexico ( and other countries ). After that, technologies changed so much that a normal person with not much education could not really fit into them. Then everything got automated, so the modern factory does not require huge armies of workers.

It might be instructive to remember that vast amounts of US military industrial complex were made 'by hand'. Injector holes for Apollo rockets were drilled by hand, turbopumps for the rockets had parts welded together by hand. All these things are on record. Those who worked on them still remember it. American shudra handmade technology was considered good enough to land man on the moon. Now, everyone would want to do this stuff with CNC machines and computer controlled electron beam welding. The American shudra is being told that he's not good enough, or irrelevant.

American vaishyas ( investment bankers, MBAs, consultants, etc. ) screwed over the shudras by outsourcing everything to China and other countries. They made finance so complicated that in effect Wall Street fleeces the productive economy.

American brahmanas ( scientists, engineers, programmers, academics ) screwed over the shudras by automating everything and making the handmade work irrelevant. Furthermore, the ivory tower humanities type brahmanas have come up with insulting solutions- asking them to get low wage jobs at Walmart or to get hi-fi college degrees ( which everyone has neither aptitude nor money for ).

American Kshatriyas ( soldiers and administrators ) spent tons of money on wars that have no obvious benefit and came up with policies that don't benefit them at all.

The resentment of the American shudras against Wall street (vaishyas), Silicon Valley (brahmanas) and Washington DC(kshatriyas) reached boiling point. Adding to this of course is the rise of feminism and the total collapse of family system in the west.

Trump may rail against China and Mexico and promise to drain the swamp at Washington DC. But really what is he going to do about automation. AI and advanced robotics are poised to take millions of jobs in the near future. There won't be more factory workers, there'll be less. Obviously, we can't roll back the tide of technology and go back to the 1960s. This will be difficult to solve.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby amritk » 30 Jan 2017 12:38

Austin, should it not be the other way? For rupee to become 16 to the dollar, we would have to raise output and exports by a factor of 4, relative to what others are doing. RBI has been using devaluation as a band-aid to compensate for deep structural problems.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 30 Jan 2017 18:26

Neshant wrote:A pretty good summary of what's fueling a populist revolt in the west by one of BR's members.

Do you agree, Austin bhaiya..

csaurabh wrote:I just had an insight into Trump movement in the USA.

It is a revolt of the American 'shudras' against American 'vaishyas', 'kshatriyas' and 'brahmanas'.

In 1970, a normal American 'shudra' was a blue collar factory worker who had a well paid reasonably good job, a simple one, like operating a lathe machine or welding. From that point on, it really went downhill from there. First, large amounts of factory work was outsourced to China and Mexico ( and other countries ). After that, technologies changed so much that a normal person with not much education could not really fit into them. Then everything got automated, so the modern factory does not require huge armies of workers.

It might be instructive to remember that vast amounts of US military industrial complex were made 'by hand'. Injector holes for Apollo rockets were drilled by hand, turbopumps for the rockets had parts welded together by hand. All these things are on record. Those who worked on them still remember it. American shudra handmade technology was considered good enough to land man on the moon. Now, everyone would want to do this stuff with CNC machines and computer controlled electron beam welding. The American shudra is being told that he's not good enough, or irrelevant.

American vaishyas ( investment bankers, MBAs, consultants, etc. ) screwed over the shudras by outsourcing everything to China and other countries. They made finance so complicated that in effect Wall Street fleeces the productive economy.

American brahmanas ( scientists, engineers, programmers, academics ) screwed over the shudras by automating everything and making the handmade work irrelevant. Furthermore, the ivory tower humanities type brahmanas have come up with insulting solutions- asking them to get low wage jobs at Walmart or to get hi-fi college degrees ( which everyone has neither aptitude nor money for ).

American Kshatriyas ( soldiers and administrators ) spent tons of money on wars that have no obvious benefit and came up with policies that don't benefit them at all.

The resentment of the American shudras against Wall street (vaishyas), Silicon Valley (brahmanas) and Washington DC(kshatriyas) reached boiling point. Adding to this of course is the rise of feminism and the total collapse of family system in the west.

Trump may rail against China and Mexico and promise to drain the swamp at Washington DC. But really what is he going to do about automation. AI and advanced robotics are poised to take millions of jobs in the near future. There won't be more factory workers, there'll be less. Obviously, we can't roll back the tide of technology and go back to the 1960s. This will be difficult to solve.


I have watched DT very closely and to the best I can understand his Miraculous Win is due to Globalisation without Human Touch or Sympathy. This is a revolt by so called Working Class , Ordinary Workers , Those who are on Food Stamp Program versus the Elites who just throw Stastics to prove their point without bothering to Check their Ground Reality most of these are Left Liberals Type.

All one has to do is to watch CNN/Fareed Zakaria/GPS program and one realises how out of touch these people are far from Ground Reality , Unfortunately we dont get Fox News in India Cable Channel so stuck with CNN Crap.

As far as getting jobs from 60's , I think the issue is much deeper if the so called Shudras are not unemployed is becasuse US Education system is broken , How is that the same job Offshored in China or Mexicos serve well for the Shudras of these nation but does not work well for US ones ? If there is US Manufacturing job offshored then the only reason is Companies Bottomline.

Over time corporate/companies have become more Greedy and all that mattered is their fat bottom line and if that means putting American Workers down the drain it worked for them , The American worker can stay alive on Food Stamp and can do 2-3 part time jobs at MacD to earn their living.

I may not agree with DT 100 % but I think he is doing the right thing for his country , Looking Deep Within to fix what is broken or atleast give it a try before the entire thing collapses.

As some one said it on a Debate , If MSM , Wall Street , Big Bankers and Industry is opposing you then you must be doing something right.

Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 30 Jan 2017 18:29

amritk wrote:Austin, should it not be the other way? For rupee to become 16 to the dollar, we would have to raise output and exports by a factor of 4, relative to what others are doing. RBI has been using devaluation as a band-aid to compensate for deep structural problems.


My point was what if Dollar becomes Weaker on its own accord and suddenly instead of finding 68 to USD , if we find say 30 to USD , Does that mean Indian Nominal GDP have double or say if it becomes 16 does that mean it has become trippled as they use USD as standard means to account for GDP.

Lets say if India does not becomes as strong as you say overnight but US becomes weaker , Does that really mean our GDP has doubles or trippled over night or is this just a noational value and there is no way to measure GDP of a nation realistically

amritk
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby amritk » 31 Jan 2017 10:52

Austin, to a certain extent, yes. We'll be able to afford US supply chain products more easily. But your point is taken and I don't know the full answer. Gold? J.

If a series of crazy politicians were to damage Brand USA, USD could drop.

TSJones
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby TSJones » 31 Jan 2017 12:55

what is not understood by Austin is that the US is the world's leading customer with which India has a $22 billion surplus in goods and services all paid for by a reserve currency.

what happens if you are a business when your best customer collapses?

does your net worth increase?

do you say "geez oil is gonna be cheap now"?

no. because oil will switch to some other stable currency and everybody will have to scramble for that.

real wealth means the accumulation of assets, not that the country you hate has gone bankrupt........

Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 31 Jan 2017 16:34

amritk wrote:Austin, to a certain extent, yes. We'll be able to afford US supply chain products more easily. But your point is taken and I don't know the full answer. Gold? J.

If a series of crazy politicians were to damage Brand USA, USD could drop.


No Worries , Its not about Gold or any thing but the way GDP is calculated , My limited point was just because we USD becomes weak 2x times we wont be getting rich 2x times and vice verse is also true ....So GDP Nominal is just a paper thing

There is perhaps no way to accurately calculate GDP , May be GDP by PPP is something to think about

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 31 Jan 2017 16:43

The so called surplus is a myth since American companies operating out of India largely absorbs the profits of any exports to the US. If anything, India runs a deficit against the US in trade since there is a lot of products thats are in demand from the US but little other than "services" and computer coolie related work that India can export.

With Trump, the services part is going to take a beating.

In that sense India is different from China which pursues largely mercantilist trading policies of running huge surpluses year after year.


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