Perspectives on the global economic changes

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Mort Walker
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Mort Walker » 25 Jan 2018 10:08

Austin wrote:Image


Very misleading. That's only in government control. The Indian public holds more than 20,000 tonnes of gold in private hands.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 25 Jan 2018 11:13

Austin wrote:“The plan is to create a standard for kilobars that can be adopted around the world, delivered anywhere, possibly using blockchain to identify the bars, their origins,” a physical gold trading source said. “Rigid standards and blockchain would bring in people who are worried they could be getting conflict metal.”

“You can add a lot of information with blockchain, where the gold was mined, where it was refined, serial numbers, who owned it previously. It could bring new demand to the market,” a physical market source said.


Most are not concerned about conflict metal but rather counterfeit metal.

How does blockchain prevent fake gold from entering the system even if it can track from whom to whom the metal has moved? Bars could be watered down with lead along the way.

I am guessing it would have to be based on random spot assays of the kilobar and awarding points to all members in a given blockchain which resulted in a genuine assayed bar. Over time those folks would gain a reputation of being trustworthy in their movement of gold.

Hey! I think such a system might actually work.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 25 Jan 2018 11:21

Mort Walker wrote:
Austin wrote:Image


Very misleading. That's only in government control. The Indian public holds more than 20,000 tonnes of gold in private hands.


Public holding is Private Gold in holding and that does not translate to what Central Bank Hold.

Reason Sovereign bond gold scheme of GOI is a disaster , Public wont trust government with their last resort money

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby yensoy » 25 Jan 2018 11:55

Austin wrote:Public holding is Private Gold in holding and that does not translate to what Central Bank Hold.

Reason Sovereign bond gold scheme of GOI is a disaster , Public wont trust government with their last resort money


...and it's a little inconvenient to wear a GOI gold bond to your niece's wedding...


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 01 Feb 2018 09:13

Alan Greenspan on Federal Budget Deficit, Asset Valuations



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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby panduranghari » 15 Feb 2018 19:08

Even Yellen (ON THE DAY AFTER SHE WAS NOT THE CHAIRWOMAN OF THE FED) said the market is too high and real estate is overpriced. These barstewards have no integrity.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Manish_P » 18 Feb 2018 10:32

Mort Walker wrote:
Austin wrote:Image


Very misleading. That's only in government control. The Indian public holds more than 20,000 tonnes of gold in private hands.


Where is UKstan ?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 19 Feb 2018 15:23

Seems Old Data , Russia Gold Reserves is at 1,838 T in Dec 2017 , Their Central bank is on gold buying spree.

" The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) added 300,000 ounces (9.3 tons) of gold to its reserves in December, bringing the total yearly holdings to a record 1,838.211 tons, worth over $76 billion in"monetary terms " https://www.rt.com/business/416624-russ ... -reserves/

The CHina having 1842 T of Gold is a red hearing , Consensus is they are buy far more via HK and black market and their reserves are near 4000-5000 T with eventual goal to have it to 8000 T

Manish if I am not wrong UK sold all their Gold and just kept some nominal amount in few tons

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 20 Feb 2018 09:11

Conditions Ripe For 1987-Style Stock Market Crash


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 22 Feb 2018 10:16

Michael Pento – Profound Chaos Coming


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 23 Feb 2018 12:23

Russian Central Bank Buys Large 18.7 Tons Of Gold In January As Venezuela Launches ‘Petro Gold’

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02- ... petro-gold

-
Russian central bank buys gold - large 600,000 ounces or 18.7 tons of gold in January
- Russia increased its holdings to 1,857 tons, topping the People’s Bank of China’s 'reported' 1,843 tons
- Russia surpasses China as 6th largest holder of gold reserves - after U.S., Germany, IMF, Italy and France
- Turkish central bank added 205 tons "over 13 consecutive months” - Commerzbank
- Meanwhile, Russian ally Venezuela is launching a new gold-backed cryptocurrency next week

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 23 Feb 2018 13:15

Why Gold Stocks Will Go Ballistic


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby disha » 24 Feb 2018 02:04

^Time to sell gold.


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Zynda » 02 Mar 2018 22:22

Folks, need some advise for a friend. He is planning on investing to Aerospace & Defence stocks in US Market. Apparently, the stocks of A&D companies rose rapidly the last year (2017) but since have plateaued off since Jan 2018. He wants to know what is the reason for rise in A&D stocks like any grand or huge orders after Trump being elected which has prompted increased confidence & thus investment?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby JayS » 03 Mar 2018 13:07

Zynda wrote:Folks, need some advise for a friend. He is planning on investing to Aerospace & Defence stocks in US Market. Apparently, the stocks of A&D companies rose rapidly the last year (2017) but since have plateaued off since Jan 2018. He wants to know what is the reason for rise in A&D stocks like any grand or huge orders after Trump being elected which has prompted increased confidence & thus investment?


Whole share market in US, not specifically A&D rose significantly post DT's election (some 40%). Thats indicator of general sentiments that are expected based on DT's aggressive America First policy. But recent concerns over increasing labour cost and increasing borrowing cost have erased almost half of that rise. Don't take my word for it but from whatever little I know, there is nothing significant that has changed in last couple of months on fundamentals as far as A&D is concerned.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Zynda » 03 Mar 2018 17:28

Thx Jay.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby panduranghari » 04 Mar 2018 02:24

Zynda ji,

My opinion based on what I have read is- US aerospace stock has risen due to share buy backs.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 05 Mar 2018 14:53

They say a man with bow does not lie , Read what Jim Grant has to say on Interest Rates and Market

Jim Grant's Interest Rate Observations and market outlook

"My conviction is that we have embarked on this bear market in bonds that will last for 25 to 30 years and people haven't taken a measure of it."

Grant, a student of history, traces the origins of the last bear market for bonds to a $50 million 25-year debenture issue by the Shell Union oil company in 1946 that paid a coupon of 2½ per cent.

The "striking feature" of the bond bear market was its timidity. Over 10 years, the rate on that bond only increased by 100 basis points, or 10 basis points per annum.

This time he expects the move higher in rates to be more brisk.

"With the leverage in the system, with derivatives, risk parity and the complexity of modern-day finance, much of it related to financial leverage, the rate tempo will be faster than it was 70 year ago," he says.


Grant is not a buyer of the argument that an indebted world will ensure that interest rates cannot rise.

The US treasury is paying a weighted average of 2.3 per cent on about $US14 trillion of debt, and the net interest bill, he says, is about $400 billion.

If bond rates returned to their 700-year average of 4⅝ , the bill would rise to $US800 billion. That would be about half the income taken from personal income tax, but would be about comparable to the government's defence budget of $US600 billion.

"I don't think physical force would forestall a movement of rates. There will be much adjustment and much gnashing of teeth and perhaps much inflation undertaken."


Grant's criticism of central banks and the fiat monetary system has often put him the spotlight. He was even touted as a long shot to become the next chair of the Federal Reserve.

Grant is relatively complimentary of the appointment of Jerome Jay Powell, whom he describes as a "capital markets practitioner that mercifully owns no PhD in economics."
Last edited by Austin on 05 Mar 2018 15:41, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Zynda » 05 Mar 2018 15:11

panduranghari wrote:Zynda ji,

US aerospace stock has risen due to share buy backs.

What does it mean saar? Share buy backs?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby pravula » 06 Mar 2018 09:05

Zynda wrote:
panduranghari wrote:Zynda ji,

US aerospace stock has risen due to share buy backs.

What does it mean saar? Share buy backs?


means companies use their cash to buy their own stock and reduce float.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby panduranghari » 06 Mar 2018 16:42

And also enriching the management.

It started mainly in 2012. QE lead to increased liquidity. Companies borrowed at zero interest. The money was used to buy own stock. Insiders like CEO, CFO et al sold their stock for a huge profit once price rose. The game continues. And this is called economic recovery!

In 1999, CISCO stock traded at PE 64. this meant as per the CEO- he needed to pay the shareholders all the earnings as dividend annually for 10 years with no reinvestment in the R&D. In 2001, the PE dropped back to 5.

Today Shillers P/E ratio is over 100. Says it all.

Good stock to buy today is junior miners and uranium miners. The only stock which looks undervalued for everything else. If oil falls below 50, I would buy oil stocks too.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 15 Mar 2018 10:01

The CEOs don't give a sh*t because as the stock price rise, they can claim credit and collect bigger bonuses.
Also, they have stock options which they can exercise to cash in further.
It makes perfect sense for them to get the company to do stock buy backs all day, every day.

If i didn't know any better, i would guess the next crisis is going to come from over-bought / over-leveraged stock buyback schemes which tank hard if and when the economy unexpectedly dives. Similar to the mortgage leverage bubble except this is the stock buyback bubble.

The CEOs will have cashed out and on the run long before they get identified as the culprits.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby pravula » 15 Mar 2018 10:18

Neshant wrote:The CEOs don't give a sh*t because as the stock price rise, they can claim credit and collect bigger bonuses.
Also, they have stock options which they can exercise to cash in further.
It makes perfect sense for them to get the company to do stock buy backs all day, every day.

If i didn't know any better, i would guess the next crisis is going to come from over-bought / over-leveraged stock buyback schemes which tank hard if and when the economy unexpectedly dives. Similar to the mortgage leverage bubble except this is the stock buyback bubble.

The CEOs will have cashed out and on the run long before they get identified as the culprits.


Its no different from how countries operate. They usually use a new loan to pay off an old one as it matures. It's not a new problem/system and has been well understood by the market. Yes, companies will fail when interest rates rise and they are unable to raise new loans to service old ones.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 18 Mar 2018 22:54

Image

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby panduranghari » 19 Mar 2018 15:25

Image

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby panduranghari » 19 Mar 2018 15:35

Image

Image

Even a doubling of allocation to gold internationally from 0.58% to 1.16%, will at least quadruple the price from here. Remember there is always enough gold (AT the correct price).

disha wrote:^Time to sell gold.


So the answer is no. And will remain no until the Gross US debt decreases from $2100000000000 (104% of GDP){Up 1.2 trillion since the debt ceiling was lifted a few weeks back) to the long term average of $500000000 (<50% of GDP).


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 20 Mar 2018 20:10


Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 21 Mar 2018 13:00


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 22 Mar 2018 10:11

I think China US and EU are in the same boat , They all increased their economic size by massive debt and credit bubble and in case of US the size of debt is outclassing the growth , even the EU seems to be in same boat. It is a question of among the 3 who blinks first and they rest will follow

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby panduranghari » 22 Mar 2018 19:10

China has yet to face the 44 trillion banking sector liabilities. This does not include the shadow banking liabilities which no one really knows how bad they are.

Chinese talk too much. They are truly fcuked. They will come out on the other side alright but not with the same hubris and also decreased territory and people. I am willing to take a 1 rupee bet on this.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 23 Mar 2018 07:31

Its amazing how Iceland's national debt magically vanished after its 2008 crash.

Had Iceland been an African nation, I very much doubt that debt vanishing trick would have worked.

Makes me wonder if the same could happen with the debts of other western countries when they reach debt saturation.

The original plan of getting developing countries to hold lots of foreign currency reserves and then defrauding them through inflation seems to have run amuck.

I don't trust the fiat monetary system as losses & gains are easy to shift around by those controlling the system.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 25 Mar 2018 10:41

Neshant wrote:Its amazing how Iceland's national debt magically vanished after its 2008 crash.

Had Iceland been an African nation, I very much doubt that debt vanishing trick would have worked.

Makes me wonder if the same could happen with the debts of other western countries when they reach debt saturation.

The original plan of getting developing countries to hold lots of foreign currency reserves and then defrauding them through inflation seems to have run amuck.

I don't trust the fiat monetary system as losses & gains are easy to shift around by those controlling the system.


How much inflation would be need to even bring down 10 % of US Debt say from 104 % of GDP to 90 % and what is the down side of that ?

IF Japan can stay well with 250 % of Debt to GDP Ratio what prevents EU or CHina or US from sustaining the same ?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 25 Mar 2018 19:33

Michael Pento on the Economy, China and the Federal Reserve


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby A_Gupta » 25 Mar 2018 19:49

Neshant wrote:Its amazing how Iceland's national debt magically vanished after its 2008 crash.

Had Iceland been an African nation, I very much doubt that debt vanishing trick would have worked.

Makes me wonder if the same could happen with the debts of other western countries when they reach debt saturation.

The original plan of getting developing countries to hold lots of foreign currency reserves and then defrauding them through inflation seems to have run amuck.

I don't trust the fiat monetary system as losses & gains are easy to shift around by those controlling the system.


The Iceland story:
https://www.worldfinance.com/infrastruc ... s-recovery

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 25 Mar 2018 22:47

Supposedly the plan is to devalue the USD by 50% every 20 years. That is possible with just a 2% rate of inflation per year but the real rate of inflation is currently far higher. Persistently lieing about the real rate of inflation and other means of wealth confiscation from productive people in society is the current modus operandi.

As for how long it can go on, I don't know.

I'm surprised US is 21 trillion in debt with 10 year bonds at just 2.x% and real inflation rates far higher.

How can any saver agree to be cheated indefinitely when it is obvious there is no intention to pay any of these debts at face value and maybe even not at all.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 25 Mar 2018 23:10



Somehow I doubt that narrative.

The debt magically vanishes after paper shuffling on massive leveraged bets gone sour and all is good?

If it's that easy , why not go right back to doing the same thing. Wash, rinse and repeat.

How did the currency get devalued 60% without all savers and domestic creditors getting screwed over? How did a massive wave of bankruptcy not sweep through businesses which suddenly experience price surges on all imported goods given that the country produces only fish & tourism? How did foreign creditors simply accept being screwed over?

Sounds like they got their debts written off as they are a white country.
Meanwhile bankers the world over are trying to keep it a secret that so called national debts owed to them are all bogus.


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