‘I’m much more cautious. There could be a substantial correction in the markets... these short-term corrections can be quite dramatic.’
Dramatic, as in up to a 40% haircut in the stock market, according to veteran emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius.
“I’m not predicting that, I’m just saying we’ve got to be ready for that,” Mobius told CNBC in an interview Wednesday following his similar warning last month. “The catalyst I believe will come from continuing increases in interest rates. The (Federal Reserve) is definitely moving in that direction. When the Fed moves, everybody else has got to move in that direction.”
Mobius, pointing to the vulnerability of the long-in-the-tooth bull market, also didn’t rule out the potential impact of geopolitical flare-ups on equities, saying that “any event could also be a trigger.”
Jamie Dimon of J.P. Morgan Chase and someone from GS were saying Treasuries at 4% and 3.5% respectively. Currently S&P 500 is 2%.
So unless one is in for long term growth, money will move to the T-bills as 2< 3.5 to 4%.
But then the tax cuts and reforms have not kicked in.
Just use as a data point.
Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes
Posted: 09 May 2018 05:04
by Suraj
It doesn't necessarily follow that raising rates will bust the stock market bubble. Multiple rate hikes, especially without being telegraphed, maybe. But the current situation doesn't necessarily suggest that. Money moves from one asset to another. My question for any proposal of a crash in the S&P 500 would be "where does the money move ?"
Suraj saar,
We are in uncharted territory. Using 9 maps and 3 GPS systems will not be of any assistance to make any decisions. No wonder why most big name managers are shutting shop.
Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes
Posted: 09 May 2018 20:00
by Suraj
Technically there's no charted territory . The future's always unknown. Like I asked earlier, where's the money going to move ? It doesn't just go up in smoke.
Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes
Posted: 11 May 2018 07:08
by chanakyaa
Anyone looking for investment idea and tired of perennial low interest rates? How about investing in Argentina, 40%+ interest payment (but no guarantees of getting principal back)
Argentina's socialist economy is in free fall. Presenting Argentina IMF Bailout 2.0
chanakyaa wrote:Anyone looking for investment idea and tired of perennial low interest rates? How about investing in Argentina, 40%+ interest payment (but no guarantees of getting principal back)
Argentina's socialist economy is in free fall. Presenting Argentina IMF Bailout 2.0
Alan Greenspan -- Moving towards Stagflation feels good, but its a false dawn
Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes
Posted: 06 Jun 2018 08:50
by A_Gupta
Raghuram Rajan: "“The world is not prepared for the entity at the center of the global financial and monetary order and trade order turning around and saying I don’t believe in all of this, I want to change things. Now the system has been built by the U.S. around the U.S. and now the U.S. actually doesn’t believe in using the multilateral system. This is a very big change and we are not prepared for it.”"
A_Gupta wrote:Raghuram Rajan: "“The world is not prepared for the entity at the center of the global financial and monetary order and trade order turning around and saying I don’t believe in all of this, I want to change things. Now the system has been built by the U.S. around the U.S. and now the U.S. actually doesn’t believe in using the multilateral system. This is a very big change and we are not prepared for it.”"
American people were loosing jobs and DT gave them the promise if he wins he will bring back home jobs and get out of unequal treaty , He is doing what he promised , Such multilateral treaties are good as long as it does not burn your own house.
Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes
Posted: 07 Jun 2018 02:32
by A_Gupta
Austin wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:Raghuram Rajan: "“The world is not prepared for the entity at the center of the global financial and monetary order and trade order turning around and saying I don’t believe in all of this, I want to change things. Now the system has been built by the U.S. around the U.S. and now the U.S. actually doesn’t believe in using the multilateral system. This is a very big change and we are not prepared for it.”"
American people were loosing jobs and DT gave them the promise if he wins he will bring back home jobs and get out of unequal treaty , He is doing what he promised , Such multilateral treaties are good as long as it does not burn your own house.
The current system works very well for the American capitalists who fund Trump's party that is the ruling party - has the President, Senate, Congress; 33 of 50 state governors, both chambers of legislature in 33 of 50 states, and need to flip only 6 more state legislatures to be able to get through a constitutional amendment without the other party. Trump's party is doing nothing for working class people.
Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes
Posted: 08 Jun 2018 23:05
by Austin
The Spectator Index
@spectatorindex
Share of global GDP (PPP).
1980
G7: 51%
China: 2.3%
India: 2.9%
2018
G7: 30.1%
China: 18.7%
India: 7.7%
Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes
Posted: 09 Jun 2018 08:16
by Neshant
Austin wrote:The Spectator Index
@spectatorindex
Share of global GDP (PPP).
1980
G7: 51%
China: 2.3%
India: 2.9%
2018
G7: 30.1%
China: 18.7%
India: 7.7%
But then our population since 1980 has literally exploded from 697 million to 1.4 billion!
You would think there is something in the human genome that would trigger a natural slowdown in population growth once overcrowding conditions are felt. But nope. It just kept on galloping.
Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes
Posted: 09 Jun 2018 09:26
by pravula
Neshant wrote:
Austin wrote:The Spectator Index
@spectatorindex
Share of global GDP (PPP).
1980
G7: 51%
China: 2.3%
India: 2.9%
2018
G7: 30.1%
China: 18.7%
India: 7.7%
But then our population since 1980 has literally exploded from 697 million to 1.4 billion!
You would think there is something in the human genome that would trigger a natural slowdown in population growth once overcrowding conditions are felt. But nope. It just kept on galloping.
Well, we are not frogs and Genocide is frowned upon.
Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes
Posted: 09 Jun 2018 12:42
by nandakumar
The article in the link below argues that US sanctions against Iran will not have the same effect as in 2009-14 leading eventually to a nuclear deal. The sanctions will fail for the crucial reason EU will not play ball this time around unlike last time. http://jpkoning.blogspot.com/2018/06/ev ... ckade.html
Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes
Posted: 09 Jun 2018 13:25
by Austin
Neshant wrote:
Austin wrote:The Spectator Index
@spectatorindex
Share of global GDP (PPP).
1980
G7: 51%
China: 2.3%
India: 2.9%
2018
G7: 30.1%
China: 18.7%
India: 7.7%
But then our population since 1980 has literally exploded from 697 million to 1.4 billion!
You would think there is something in the human genome that would trigger a natural slowdown in population growth once overcrowding conditions are felt. But nope. It just kept on galloping.
Population Growth is positive thing for us and this creates more internal demand , more qualified people available to work India and Abroad and get remittance , In the next 30-50 years Indias population growth and more young people available to work will be a big positive
Neshant wrote:
But then our population since 1980 has literally exploded from 697 million to 1.4 billion!
You would think there is something in the human genome that would trigger a natural slowdown in population growth once overcrowding conditions are felt. But nope. It just kept on galloping.
Population Growth is positive thing for us and this creates more internal demand , more qualified people available to work India and Abroad and get remittance , In the next 30-50 years Indias population growth and more young people available to work will be a big positive
That might be so if we had tons of manufacturing jobs and a booming export industry like China.
We don't.
Beyond a certain point, population growth becomes a burden.
“The Group of Seven has become increasingly irrelevant in a world of new emerging powers,” he wrote in a blog post. “An institution that excludes the BRICs while still including economic basket cases like Italy cannot possibly claim the legitimacy required to exercise global economic leadership.” Unlike Trump, who advocated for bringing Russia back into the group, O’Neill said the G-7 would be much more relevant if China, India and a single delegation from the euro zone replaced Canada, France, Germany and Italy.
More than half of the increase in global gross domestic product since 2010 has come from the two Asian nations alone, while the dollar value of the Japanese and EU economies has declined during that span, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. O’Neill said the muted market reaction to last weekend’s chaotic G-7 conference in Quebec serves as further evidence of the group’s insignificance. “That may simply reflect the fact that the G-7 no longer matters,” he wrote.
Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes
Posted: 16 Jun 2018 10:29
by Austin
G-7 has been irrelavant for quite some time now but more so with emerging economy china and India outclassing most G 7 countries in PPP GDP
Russia has held a major selloff of US Treasury bonds, dumping some $47bn-worth of papers and momentarily dropping six places on a list of major foreign holders of US securities, recently released statistics for April have shown.
In just one month, Russia proceeded to sell $47.4 billion out of the $96.1 billion the country had in US treasury bonds in March. The latest statistics released by the US Treasury Department on Friday showed that, in April, Russia had only $48.7bn in American assets, occupying 22nd place on the list of “major foreign holders of Treasury securities.”
Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes
Posted: 21 Jun 2018 10:37
by Neshant
Interesting that humans are not the only species with a sense of fairness in an economic system.
Runs contrary to lots of rent seeking "industries" like banking which steal wealth from peoples' earnings but offer no equivalent value in return.
Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes
Posted: 21 Jun 2018 17:51
by panduranghari
A world without banks is a bad world to live in. Last 10 years is just a blip. Retail banking is not investment banking.
Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes
Posted: 21 Jun 2018 21:07
by Neshant
The removal of Glass-Steagall which separated investment banking from retail banking is what led to 2008.
That is still the case today - except now its even more extensive since banks need to make sure they are too big to fail before the next crash occurs.
Beyond that, any system where betting with chips you don't have (i.e leverage) is allowed is a fraud.
Inevitbly losses occur which are palmed off to some sucker who had no part in that bet. Whether that process of dumping those losses onto the backs of suckers is through fancy names like monetary policy, inflation, taxation, bailouts, or other terminology is immaterial. It is theft.
This theft requires corruption of the political class, the judiciary..etc to take place without which bankers would be landing in jail left & right. Banks maneuver to get cronies in govt to legalize that fraud. Even academia which is supposed to be the bastion of knowledge to call out this fraud is roped in as collaborators condoning the theft with idiotic theories.
This corruption of the govt is ehat ultimately ends up being the undoing of any state.
Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes
Posted: 21 Jun 2018 21:57
by Neshant
Ah, the wonderful world of fiat money and leveraged bets.
How can this system not ultimately implode taking with it the savings of the people doing real work?
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Novice Daytrader Mistakenly Trades In Live Account, Builds $5 Billion Position, Makes $10MM Profit
Strange things are happening in the world of trading these days.
On one hand, you have Deutsche Bank's supposedly expert, professional traders making gargantuan bets, which exceed by 12 times the bank's daily VaR limit, only to watch the trade implode spectacularly, resulting in a daily loss in the hundreds of millions; at the same time, novice traders somehow accumulate multi-billion positions not knowing they are trading in a live account... and make millions in profits.
Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes
Posted: 24 Jun 2018 08:04
by Austin
How can this system not ultimately implode taking with it the savings of the people doing
True , for some one based out in india what would be a good investment besides gold to save their hard earned money ?
