Perspectives on the global economic changes

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Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 23 Dec 2018 13:42

Let there be a full scale trade war , it is good for india

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 23 Dec 2018 16:38

looks like Russian Central bank is screwing Putin Government ......the mallice is spread every where even in our country :lol:

Inflation Targeting Madness: Russia Raises Rates Again


https://tomluongo.me/2018/12/18/inflati ... tes-again/

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 23 Dec 2018 21:03

Jeffrey Gundlach is still bearish (Full) 2018 12 17


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 23 Dec 2018 21:04

He says come 2021 , 10 year would be 6 %

Very bullish about India but over long term , he says India today is where China was 20-30 years back

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 24 Dec 2018 12:13


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Singha » 24 Dec 2018 12:33

Austin wrote:He says come 2021 , 10 year would be 6 %

Very bullish about India but over long term , he says India today is where China was 20-30 years back


india has started to deliver on its promise of sustained high growth over the last 20 years now. obviously people can still ask for 10% vs 7% and they are right, we can do better in many ways if not for populist things sucking away lot of money(needed to win votes and get right to govern) and low level corruption in cities and projects.

its our game to lose now. UPA3 will set the stage for a resounding defeat I feel. they are itching to cap, rollback and eliminate the reforms of NDA2 and start a new mai baap garibi hatao type IG sarkar while looting resources from the rich productive cities for income re-engineering and "social justice warfare"

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 24 Dec 2018 13:27

Austin wrote:Very bullish about India but over long term , he says India today is where China was 20-30 years back


China had manufacturing which it ramped up with state backing & CEOs in the west eager to increase their bonuses through outsourcing.
That hollowed out manufacturing in western countries and helped China take off economically.
It absorbed a huge mass of low and mid skill workers in their economy.

India by comparison missed the boat on that completely with bad infrastructure, poor governance, chaotic/corrupt bureaucracy and slow judiciary.

India needs to find something comparable.

One great advantage India has over China is that it is NOT perceived as an enemy by western nations or Japan.
If India can position itself as a center for R&D with cheap brains and strong IP laws, that might be one avenue for value based growth.

By contrast, any R&D investment in China is seen through the lens of empowering an enemy that wants to do harm to US/western interests in the world. Hell they literally declared their intent to bring down the US and even go to war with it. Even if they implement strong IP laws, western countries will not move their R&D there.
Last edited by Neshant on 24 Dec 2018 13:37, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 24 Dec 2018 13:33

There would be some serious imbalance in Economy for NDA to loose recently , I dont know if this trend will continue but if it does then we need to look in deeper , The man on ground knows his problem really well that any GDP or statics can throw or better of people like us on board may feel.

Remember NDA ABV shining India and rug was simply pulled from his ground because people thought about it differently when people like us thought ABV getting another term after 2004 is a done deal.

I was looking at China growth rate and from this site https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual
GDP Annual Growth Rate in China averaged 9.58 percent from 1989 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 15.40 percent in the first quarter of 1993 and a record low of 3.80 percent in the fourth quarter of 1990.


A 9.5 average growth rate for 30 years is darn impressive coz AFAIK we didnt achieve that in a single year yet but the disparity in economic development may not reflect those impressive figure , THe ground level disparity would be quite high somethng the CPC/PRC tango may not have to worry to a point but now the bubble is bursting for them as well and we will get a near to truth picture when the bubble bursts.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Singha » 24 Dec 2018 13:49

a deep surveillance state has been put in place to make sure no dissidents are allowed any leeway. the degree of online and offline monitoring in cheen has escalated in last few years after emperor xi took over also data mining and analysis became commoditized for those with big pockets. they are putting a lot of effort into their 'great wall' digitally

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 24 Dec 2018 14:11

Singha wrote:a deep surveillance state has been put in place to make sure no dissidents are allowed any leeway. the degree of online and offline monitoring in cheen has escalated in last few years after emperor xi took over also data mining and analysis became commoditized for those with big pockets. they are putting a lot of effort into their 'great wall' digitally


The deep surveillance state is a global phenomena , The west does the same thing like China does but more subtle and refined way as some one said they wont arrest you for your democratic right to protest but would arrest you for trespassing in to some one lawn while protesting that is how they broke the wall street protest post 2008 crisis.

The mistake we do is we try to watch all the countries and cultures of the world through western glass and then try to judge them through those glass without them having any thing similar in western law , politics culture or economy , We do the same in our country too.

As most of our economic views and news comes from bloomberg , cnn bbc most population are fed the same Western diatribe and believe it. Even our MSM invites the same guy who would be speaking wisdom on Bloomberg and are certified by S&P to speak on economy so what can go really wrong there.

At one point in mid 80's Japan seemed impossible to go wrong but then since 90's they are in recession till date with Debt to GDP of 250 % and most owned by their own population , China would eventually meet its own nemisis sooner or later.

As Neshant said China made some smart choices and Western country were happy to oblige it for 30 years because it fed them with cheap good bought by cheap credit so it was a case of you scratch my back and I yours.

May be had there been no China then we would have seen the economic crisis we have today like 15 years back , China carried the world economy on its shoulder for past 15 years and bailing out Western economy in return and enriching itself.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 24 Dec 2018 14:20

Neshant wrote:One great advantage India has over China is that it is NOT perceived as an enemy by western nations or Japan.


I believe that enemy thing is more of Trump personal dislike for China and he does not hide it , He said it on record that I wont let just Russia be the only enemy of US and would add China/Iran to it.

The Democrat lead by BO darling of Western media was more than happy to tango with China and his Chief of Staff went to china and called it as next superpower etc etc I think if Trump goes in 2020 then China will be let off and if Trump remains China will be on his cross eye.

US Intel is just a extension of US Political arm it gives you want the POTUS of day want to hear , If GWB wanted to hear Iraq has chemical weapons US Intel invented one , if Democratic Lead by BO wanted to prove he didnt loose election but Russia interference did so US intel got that , In recent mid term election US Intel chief mentioned 2 days back that Russia , China , Iran interfered just what trump wants to hear and Trump attacked Syria based on same intel that CW attack was done by Assad no prrof needed , If tommorow India becomes stong enough to contest Western interest US Intel will create the necessary proof for their boss.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 25 Dec 2018 08:38

Neshant wrote:


Good , Considering Next US presidential election is in Nov 2020 and the markets are just fluctuating badly , DT can only hope that what ever happenes happens after Nov 2020 where he may have a chance to win but if economy indeed colapses in the next 2 years then it will ruin his chances for good.

Not his fault as by the end of BO term the ominuous signs were there , It would have been any body post that and he/she would have to take the blame. DT needs to force the Fed to keep interest rates close to zero for next 2 and half years.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 25 Dec 2018 13:23

Dow plunges 650 points in worst Christmas Eve trading session ever

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/dow ... ssion-ever


So what is happening ?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Singha » 25 Dec 2018 14:15

https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/high-debt- ... topstories

looks like even a brookings member is part of PMO advisory council. read the last line

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 26 Dec 2018 00:43

Austin wrote:Dow plunges 650 points in worst Christmas Eve trading session ever

So what is happening ?



Nothing much.

Stock markets are still rigged. However in order to stay believeable, even rigged markets have to fall to simulate reality every now and then. Federal Reserve picks and chooses which Presidents get to enjoy the market bubble up with money printing & debt increases and which Presidents get the downside with interest rate increases.

This is to influence election outcomes among other things.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby yensoy » 26 Dec 2018 09:53

Neshant wrote:...Federal Reserve picks and chooses which Presidents get to enjoy the market bubble up with money printing & debt increases and which Presidents get the downside with interest rate increases...


Money printing happens because some fool is willing to buy your debt for close to zero interest. Any country or company would be a bigger fool to offer higher rates of interest on their debt when someone is willing to buy at zero, especially when the other 2 macroeconomic indicators - inflation and unemployment - are in check.

It's not the Fed, it's not the President, it's the fact that some (China mainly) are willing to sock away dollars for future use, regardless of what returns they can get. At least, that's my theory.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 26 Dec 2018 11:35

Fed forward guidance leads to high interest rate , China bought all those US T Bills to keep its Export competitive by manipulating its Yuan ..thats how it ran the show all these years.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby yensoy » 26 Dec 2018 14:31

Austin wrote:Fed forward guidance leads to high interest rate , China bought all those US T Bills to keep its Export competitive by manipulating its Yuan ..thats how it ran the show all these years.


Yes, that is correct. Fed rates are by definition short-term rates. They are not necessarily leading indicators or control parameters of future rates, however there has to be some parity between short-term and long-term rates so the setting of short-term rates is indicative of Fed's expectation of long-term rates and other macroeconomic imperatives. Note how inversion of rates (2y vs 5y, 2y vs 10y etc) is on everyone's radar. Unless there is sufficient confidence that low long-term rates are palatable by the market, the Fed cannot lower rates to the region that it currently operates in (anything less than 4%). Powell's increment is a marginal one and a move of caution which apparently is unpalatable to DT. However, easy money will continue to finance the US deficits as long as there are bigger fools buying long term US treasuries (keeping interest rates low, currency exchange rates in check, and unemployment within bounds).

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 27 Dec 2018 04:19

DOW just had it's largest single day rise in history.

Strangely there are "circuit breakers" on the way down to stop the stock market for falling too fast.

But there are no circuit breakers on the way up.

It's good old fashioned stock market rigging, just as I said.


Do not look to the stock market for signs of an economic downturn.

The signs of an impending or actual crash will have to show up in some place that cannot be manipulated.

It's a mystery where that will be.

Its emergence will be a surprise to 99% of people - me included.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 27 Dec 2018 09:57

yensoy wrote: Powell's increment is a marginal one and a move of caution which apparently is unpalatable to DT. However, easy money will continue to finance the US deficits as long as there are bigger fools buying long term US treasuries (keeping interest rates low, currency exchange rates in check, and unemployment within bounds).


It is possible Fed and that is not limited to Powell might be incrasing rate to hurt DT ?

IF Fed can stay without a single rise in 8 years of BO regime then why cant it keep it stay put for 4 more years with just may be 0.5 % over 4 years ?

US Can always sell T Bills to its own people much like most Japans debt of 250 % is owned by its own population but as Peter Shiff says Dollar will be at different level much like Yen is today.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 27 Dec 2018 16:54


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 29 Dec 2018 23:44

I think Trump did a mistake by not speaking and doing the right thing when he became President which he did most of the time as candidate.

He should have called Obama bluff and told about the bad state of economy which he inherited and he would be cleaning it with pain but he simply rode the tide and even took credit for stock prices rising

Now he is asking American to buy on the dip ,,,,,, So the next crash if it happens in his first term will be his baby but he did his part by increasing the debt to 1,4 trillion in just a year

US debt soars nearly $1.4 trillion from last Christmas, rising $44,000 per second

https://www.rt.com/business/447586-us-d ... r-soaring/

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 01 Jan 2019 00:08

Image

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 01 Jan 2019 18:55

^^ Bingo.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 01 Jan 2019 19:03

Personally i think the banking establishment wanted some guy like Trump to become President so he could be blamed for the crash.
However his unpredictability since becoming President gives them pause for thought!
If there is anyone who can shut down their game of stealing from productive society through financial chicanery and put them behind bars, it surely is him!

I think they'll wait & hope he gets booted out in the upcoming elections so someone with less bite can be made to own the crash.

The crash however has little if anything to do with who is in power.
It has everything to do with the corruption of capitalism by a select few controlling the central bank - corrupting the legislative, executive and even judiciary to commit theft.

Even academia has failed in its role as guardian of knowledge and has been co-opted into providing support for nonsensical economic theories with grants and job offers few spewing BS.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 01 Jan 2019 19:09

I'll watch this later, but it does seem interesting at first glance.

Little old grannies are going to be eating dog food if equities cave in.


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby yensoy » 01 Jan 2019 21:13

Neshant wrote:I'll watch this later, but it does seem interesting at first glance.

Little old grannies are going to be eating dog food if equities cave in.


Happy 2019 BRFites...

The bigger issue is that there is a section of population which is on "defined benefits", i.e. their pensions - often ridiculously high due to overtime games and hazard pay - are guaranteed by the government; in turn these governments (many of them local/city/municipalities) have invested in dodgy securities and/or have limited means to raise revenue (like traffic tickets or property taxes). If the securities tank, these government bodies will have to come up with creative accounting, or be nasty to passer-bys by giving out tickets like candy, or go bankrupt. The last option is probably the only way they can divest their liabilities but unpalatable for various reasons.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 04 Jan 2019 22:34

found this in comment section of Peter Schiff video by Gregory Mannarino

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZLmyRkODpI
Gregory Mannarino
12 hours ago

More of the same, suppressed interest rates and money printing will only serve to exacerbate the current issues involving the stock market/debt market/economic distortions. In 2008' suppressing rates and money printing was the solution, but here in 2019 that solution has become a disease. Rate suppression and easy money for over a decade has caused the current situations to develop, so how anyone could possibly think that doing more of the same will make things better has ZERO basis in logic or reality...

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Singha » 05 Jan 2019 02:03

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/04/tech ... index.html

people thinking all sorts of ideas after the apple missing earnings estimate event

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 05 Jan 2019 10:41

From assembling pov this is good as the foxcon factory down south will generate more jobs hopefully can be the main manufacturing hub away from China to export globally

Even cheap iPhone will have to compete in Indian market with likes of Indian Chinese and Korean model which is a uphill task for them.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby nandakumar » 05 Jan 2019 11:31

Austin wrote:From assembling pov this is good as the foxcon factory down south will generate more jobs hopefully can be the main manufacturing hub away from China to export globally

Even cheap iPhone will have to compete in Indian market with likes of Indian Chinese and Korean model which is a uphill task for them.

It will boil down to women power. Will the TN girls match Chinese women in speed and dexterity? What I heard from people in Chennai is that it will be an all women assembling crew. Even more interesting is that the factory hands will be drawn from across all the districts of TN and girls will have factory provided hostels where girls from each district will be exclusively housed. They will speak the dialect specific to their districts and bond with one another. This is a departure from the earlier Nokia model where the factory drew workers from nearby areas and ferried then in buses. The problem with this model is that their families were susceptible to local political pressures. In the new model too, there will be local political pressure but it will be diffused across 30 districts. Foxconn believes it can handle it. In other words it is as close to Chinese system with a democratic political structure.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Singha » 05 Jan 2019 15:12

the highway blr-chennai running through Sriperumbudur urgently needs upgrade to 4+4 with proper service roads and entry/exit ramps and underpasses from the large industrial parks.
it is gridlocked in office commute hours on weekdays with just perpendicular junctions, U turn cuts and frequent traffic stops to let traffic move into these industries and 1000s of employee buses.

i have started looking for alternative routes like via kanchipuram to sneak into chennai on occasional visits. but those roads are not so great either.

we need large elevated silk board type roads that go from chennai ORR into the heart of the city
also a new hyd style outer ring road from coast to coast that passes through sriperumbudur will open vast new areas for expansion.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 05 Jan 2019 18:53

yensoy wrote:
Neshant wrote:I'll watch this later, but it does seem interesting at first glance.

Little old grannies are going to be eating dog food if equities cave in.


Happy 2019 BRFites...

The bigger issue is that there is a section of population which is on "defined benefits", i.e. their pensions - often ridiculously high due to overtime games and hazard pay - are guaranteed by the government; in turn these governments (many of them local/city/municipalities) have invested in dodgy securities and/or have limited means to raise revenue (like traffic tickets or property taxes). If the securities tank, these government bodies will have to come up with creative accounting, or be nasty to passer-bys by giving out tickets like candy, or go bankrupt. The last option is probably the only way they can divest their liabilities but unpalatable for various reasons.


For the most part, property taxes have been raised along with other municipal taxes in an effort to fund all these gold plated pensions of govt workers. Essentially the private sector worker (many with no pensions to speak of themselves) are being forced to fund the retirement of a few living the good life. As to why anyone should be forced to pay for some guy to sit around for decades doing nothing is something nobody can quite explain.

It's one of the many reasons India needs a law which says the govt cannot take through inflation/taxation more than 10% of a person's earnings. 15% in times of national emergency with the extra 5% being paid back in 5 years.

Taking anything beyond that creates a shitload of guys who's entire careers revolve around lobbying govt to get their hands on ever more of people's earnings.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby nandakumar » 05 Jan 2019 21:04

Singha wrote:the highway blr-chennai running through Sriperumbudur urgently needs upgrade to 4+4 with proper service roads and entry/exit ramps and underpasses from the large industrial parks.
it is gridlocked in office commute hours on weekdays with just perpendicular junctions, U turn cuts and frequent traffic stops to let traffic move into these industries and 1000s of employee buses.

i have started looking for alternative routes like via kanchipuram to sneak into chennai on occasional visits. but those roads are not so great either.

we need large elevated silk board type roads that go from chennai ORR into the heart of the city
also a new hyd style outer ring road from coast to coast that passes through sriperumbudur will open vast new areas for expansion.

I don't know if the TN govt has any plans for through traffic from Chennai to beyond Sriperumbudar and vice versa. But at least for now on your travel from Bengaluru to Chennai, you could try the right turn at Sriperumdur near SIPCOT office which takes you via Manimangalam to some point on the Tambaram Mudichur road and go towards Tambaram. From Tambaram turn left on towards the airport to Kathipara junction and from there it is a breeze to the heart of Chennai. I havent tried that route myself. But on my trip to Bengaluru I have taken the right turn on the GST Road at Tambaram to drive on the Tambaram Mudichur Road and from there another right turn to join the Outer Ring Road. The Outer Ring Road took me to a point just a little beyond Poonamalle and I could join the the NH4. While it isn't quite the smooth passage in the stretch between Poonamallee to Sriperumbudur you at least avoid the traffic from Kathipara junction all the way to Poonamallee.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby darshhan » 06 Jan 2019 08:07

nandakumar wrote:
Austin wrote:From assembling pov this is good as the foxcon factory down south will generate more jobs hopefully can be the main manufacturing hub away from China to export globally

Even cheap iPhone will have to compete in Indian market with likes of Indian Chinese and Korean model which is a uphill task for them.

It will boil down to women power. Will the TN girls match Chinese women in speed and dexterity? What I heard from people in Chennai is that it will be an all women assembling crew. Even more interesting is that the factory hands will be drawn from across all the districts of TN and girls will have factory provided hostels where girls from each district will be exclusively housed. They will speak the dialect specific to their districts and bond with one another. This is a departure from the earlier Nokia model where the factory drew workers from nearby areas and ferried then in buses. The problem with this model is that their families were susceptible to local political pressures. In the new model too, there will be local political pressure but it will be diffused across 30 districts. Foxconn believes it can handle it. In other words it is as close to Chinese system with a democratic political structure.


Great. Instead of producing kids, these girls will be making mobiles. As it is the fertility rate of TN is low. These kind of projects will surely lead to demographic disaster.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 06 Jan 2019 13:28

I read during BO tenure of 8 years the Fed did not raise interest rate even once but just 2 year tenure of DT , Fed raised interest rates 4 times.

If true it means the Deep State is shafting DT via Fed

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Kati » 06 Jan 2019 19:45

Read the article...Xi's undie is in knot, thanks to Trump.

As China feels US tariffs bite, a chill spreads around the world

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -trade-war

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 09 Jan 2019 22:23

Prannoy Roy, Global Investor Ruchir Sharma On Top 10 Trends Of 2019



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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 13 Jan 2019 13:51

A high-quality bond portfolio is 2019's best bet, says DoubleLine's Gundlach



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