Perspectives on the global economic changes

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Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 13 Jan 2019 13:54

Jeff Gundlach recomends Short Term High Quality Bond to preserve wealth in 2019 ,Unfortunately in India they have stopped selling High Quality Gsec bond after recent changes by MF ....Now its just 10 Year GSec :cry:

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 14 Jan 2019 09:59

Gundlach Warns U.S. Economy Is Floating on ‘an Ocean of Debt’
(Bloomberg) -- Jeffrey Gundlach said yet again that the U.S. economy is gorging on debt.

Echoing many of the themes from his annual "Just Markets" webcast on Tuesday, Gundlach took part in a round-table of 10 of Wall Street’s smartest investors for Barron’s. He highlighted the dangers especially posed by the U.S. corporate bond market.

Prolific sales of junk bonds and significant growth in investment grade corporate debt, coupled with the Federal Reserve weaning the market off quantitative easing, have resulted in what the DoubleLine Capital LP boss called “an ocean of debt.”

The investment manager countered President Donald Trump’s claim that he’s presiding over the strongest economy ever. The growth is debt-based, he said.


Gundlach’s forecast for real GDP expansion this year is just 0.5 percent. Citing numbers spinning out of the USDebtClock.org website, he pointed out that the U.S.’s unfunded liabilities are $122 trillion -- or six times GDP.

“I’m not looking for a terrible economy, but an artificially strong one, due to stimulus spending,” Gundlach told the panel. “We have floated incremental debt when we should be doing the opposite if the economy is so strong.”


Stock Bear


Gundlach is coming off another year in which his Total Return Bond Fund outperformed its fixed-income peers. It returned 1.8 percent in 2018, the best performance among the 10 largest actively managed U.S. bond funds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Gundlach expects further declines in the U.S. stock market, which recently have steadied after reeling for most of December since the Great Depression. Equities will be weak early in the year and strengthen later in 2019, effectively a reversal of what happened last year, he said.

“So now we are in a bear market, which isn’t defined by me as stocks being down 20 percent. A bear market is determined by the way stocks are acting,” he said.

Rupal Bhansali, chief investment officer of International & Global Equities at Ariel Investments, picked up on Gundlach’s debt theme in the Barron’s cover story. Citing General Electric’s woes, she urged investors to focus more on balance-sheet risk rather than whether a company could beat or miss earnings. Companies with net cash are worth looking at, she said.

Despite the surge in outstanding debt last year, markets aren’t signaling any particular concern over the U.S. government’s creditworthiness. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries dropped to 2.70 percent on Friday from a 2018 high of about 3.26 percent in October.


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 16 Jan 2019 05:34




There's always a good amount of money when bankers are looking for bail-outs & bonuses.
Trillions are conjured out of thin air to pay off bets gone sour and national debt is run up in various "stimulus" rounds which sees that money mostly going into the pockets of those crooks.

But when it comes to the proletariate, a call for belt tightning and inflating away their savings, wages and taxing is what's perscribed.

India should take care not to follow bullsh&t theories from academics / economists lest it lead to the situation above.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 20 Jan 2019 15:47

Bullsh&t accounting.


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 22 Jan 2019 12:16

The Spectator Index


@spectatorindex
5m5 minutes ago
More
Contribution to global GDP growth, 2017-2019.

China: 35%
US: 18%
India: 8.6%
EU: 7.9%
Indonesia: 2.5%
South Korea: 2%
Australia: 1.8%
Canada: 1.7%
UK: 1.6%
Japan: 1.5%
Brazil: 1.2%
Turkey: 1.2%
Mexico: 1.2%

(World Bank)

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 22 Jan 2019 12:17

So China Global Contribution to GDP is more than USA , INdia and EU put together

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby yensoy » 22 Jan 2019 13:37

Austin wrote:So China Global Contribution to GDP is more than USA , INdia and EU put together


Please don't misquote yourself :D it is GDP growth, not raw GDP. Some countries can also contribute negatively to GDP growth; obviously they can't have negative GDPs.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 22 Jan 2019 15:17

Yes ofcourse I mean GDP growth , The GDP was a typo :D

I think % wise the GDP growth is larger due to high base nominal GDP for China and because except India with lower base GDP the EU and US dont have high growth to match ? or is it some other reason

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby yensoy » 22 Jan 2019 19:46

Exactly, it's a 12+T$ economy growing at 6.x%. India has the growth but less base, EU/US have base but less growth.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 23 Jan 2019 01:00

GDP numbers are being goosed up by all countries these days.

All kinds of non productive activities and fluff are thrown in to increase GDP numbers.

The only way to tell if any of it is true is to look back 10 years and ask if the quality of life of the average person is better or worse.

If the quality is better, the next question to ask is if that has been the result of real gains in productivity & innovation or merley running up debt & leverage.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 24 Jan 2019 00:10

Atleast in my city Mumbai in India life is better in some sense then it was 10 yrs back better infra , lots of malls , new Metro etc but worse in other ways higher cost of living , higher cost of food etc , bad air quality ......so cant really compare you gain some but you loose others

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 24 Jan 2019 00:11

Agency Fitch warns governments of credit rating risks

https://www.ft.com/content/cf9fc00e-1ef ... fc3ad87c65

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 24 Jan 2019 15:50

Ex-RBI Governor Rajan Says U.S-China Dispute Far Bigger Than Trade


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 24 Jan 2019 15:51

Dalio, Weber on Rethinking Global Financial Risk: Davos Panel


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 25 Jan 2019 11:19

Austin wrote:Ex-RBI Governor Rajan Says U.S-China Dispute Far Bigger Than Trade




Central banking autonomy in the west has led to crony capitalism and the dangerous illusion that some wise man sitting up in an ivory tower knows what's best for the economy.

Its attracted a hoard of rent seekers looking to milk society out of wealth they had no part in earning. These parasites have got to a point where they claim the money you earned is not yours to keep - the very definition of capitalism.

India should keep well away from the notion that bankers should control the monetary system or run the economy like some Soviet economic tsar.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 25 Jan 2019 11:32

Agree , I still wonder how the Fed and other central bank come to the conclusion that interest rate should be X and Inflation should be Y and they either want to reach Y and try to control X

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 25 Jan 2019 11:33

Neshant what do you make of this post ?

Gold vs Equity (Sensex) 40 year return and risk comparison

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 25 Jan 2019 11:43

Austin wrote:Atleast in my city Mumbai in India life is better in some sense then it was 10 yrs back better infra , lots of malls , new Metro etc but worse in other ways higher cost of living , higher cost of food etc , bad air quality ......so cant really compare you gain some but you loose others


Mumbai is not representative of most of India.
Wealth will flow in and continue to flow in as there are almost no other financial centers in the country.

For now and perhaps the next 15 years, India's economy can grow on the demographic dividend alone if nothing else.
The average age of an Indian is quite young - something like 17 yrs old vs 40 to 45 in the west.
The first of many herds of these Indian buffalos are/have entered the work force and this will go on for quite some time.

This is the easy stage of growth - cell phones, TV, computers, autos, media, retail..etc

Once this easy growth spurt is done however, then comes the hard part.
At that point, no longer will consumption and services alone fuel the economy.
Like a star which burns the lightest elements like Hydrogen and Helium first, it then has to fuse increasingly heavier elements as the Hydrogen gets used up. That nuclear reaction becomes increasingly harder and finally hits a wall once the star has only Iron which is almost impossible to fuse.

For now India is fusing hydrogen and generating economic growth as there is lots of it and it's easy to do.

The only thing that can ruin this natural growth process is Central banking.
Jumping in to "manage" the economy with idiotic theories will destroy what should be a naturally occurring economic growth cycle.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Singha » 25 Jan 2019 11:56

an article in TOI today that South korean couples no longer want kids due to stress of upbringing and cost of education...so going for pampered dogs instead.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 25 Jan 2019 12:20

Singha wrote:an article in TOI today that South korean couples no longer want kids due to stress of upbringing and cost of education...so going for pampered dogs instead.


Thats also the trend in India where couples prefer a single child and pets alteast in many metros I have seen those trend

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 25 Jan 2019 12:23

RR Interview at Davos

Former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan speaks on growth, fiscal fault line & more | Davos Direct


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 26 Jan 2019 12:26

Recession Is Written All Over the U.S. Economy, Ex-Budget Director Stockman Says


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 26 Jan 2019 18:08

Neshant , Ray Dalio claims the current crisis is similar to late 1930 , check the full interview

Hedge Fund Legend Ray Dalio On The Economy


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 27 Jan 2019 17:13

‘US should look for its problems at home’ – Russian minister on Soros rant about ‘dangerous’ China

Washington should focus on actually fixing its domestic problems instead of searching for external enemies to blame them on, Russia's Minister for Economic Development Maksim Oreshkin said.

The remarks were in response to the words of liberal billionaire George Soros, who lashed out at China speaking at the Davos economic forum in Switzerland.

China is not the only authoritarian regime in the world but it is the wealthiest, strongest and technologically most advanced,” Soros said. “This makes Xi Jinping the most dangerous opponent of open societies.”


China brushed off the comments, saying that “statements by certain people, which portray black as white and distort facts, are completely pointless and not worthy of even a rebuttal.” Aside from Beijing, Soros has also expressed similar concerns about Russia.

According to Oreshkin, the US should stop trying to blame the troubles of “open societies” on someone else, but look for the root of its problems at home. “Look at what is happening in America. Over the past 30 years real income of the middle class and below haven't grown almost at all. The expenses for healthcare and education have risen trifold, even taking inflation in account,” Oreshkin told RT during a press conference in Davos. “Naturally, it has led to the growth of dissent in America, becoming one of the factors in Donald Trump, with all his peculiar rhetoric, becoming the president.”


The problems are within the US. An external enemy, which impedes them and causes all the trouble in the US – whether Russia or China – is just substitution of concepts.

The official warned that such an approach – expressed by Soros and other figures of the US elite – sows nothing but confrontation, which ultimately harms the US itself end impedes economic growth worldwide.


https://www.rt.com/business/449748-us-l ... lems-home/

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 28 Jan 2019 01:28

Austin wrote:Neshant , Ray Dalio claims the current crisis is similar to late 1930 , check the full interview


I'm about 10 mins into his video but I can't say I've got any information I don't already know.

He talks about why things are not working out financially for 60 to 70% of the population but fails to identify the main reason :

i.e central banks owned by private banks using monopolistic powers over the monetary system to steal from producers of society. The producers being the 60 - 70% of society.

The real question should be why capitalism has been replaced with cronyism to profit private banks in the first place. Who has perpetuated this system and when are they going to jail.

He doesn't talk about this issue but instead dances around it with phrases like "the wealth gap should be addressed", "capitalism should work for the 60 - 70%" and other meaninglessness.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 28 Jan 2019 02:08

Hope Indian govt is not dumb enough to be leaving it's gold in a foreign vault.
It's an invitation for theft.

-----

Bank Of England Refuses To Release Venezuela's Gold


The Bank of England declined to comment on its handling of Venezuelan gold, saying it “provides banking services – including gold custody services – to a large number of customers” and “does not comment on any of those relationships.”

(more like gold robbery services)


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01- ... s-lobbying

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 28 Jan 2019 08:52

Yes this is day light robbery , So called rule based order where rules are bent to suit ones political agenda

GOI gold is in India AFAIK in RBI vault

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 28 Jan 2019 09:18

Jeffrey Gundlach

Verified account

@TruthGundlach
Following Following @TruthGundlach
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Currently $122 Trillion US unfunded liabilities per Debtclock. That’s 564% of Fiscal ‘18 GDP. To fund would require 10% of GDP for 56+ yrs.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 28 Jan 2019 09:18

I think a easy way to get out of debt mess is to devalue the USD over time

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Singha » 28 Jan 2019 11:57

how then would americans who are addicted to cheap manufactured imports respond ?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 28 Jan 2019 12:56

Singha wrote:how then would americans who are addicted to cheap manufactured imports respond ?


Devaluation has its pros if imports gets expensive then exports will get more competitive as well , It will aid in Make in America plus their debts

There is no way they can pay this debts in normal way

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 01 Feb 2019 12:50

Edward Snowden is clearly a very articulate person.



Ditto for central banking.
Why are courts complicit in preventing the hijacking of the monetary system by a secret group of bankers?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 02 Feb 2019 20:59

Neshant check this short video when you get a chance , Let me know what do you make of this on QE with some stastics


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 04 Feb 2019 04:54

Austin wrote:Neshant check this short video when you get a chance , Let me know what do you make of this on QE with some stastics


I watched it.
I can't say I got any new information out of it.

QE was not to benefit the masses but primarily a means of transferring the gambling losses of banks onto savers, wage earners, pensioners and society at large.

The second thing is the countries he specifies as not having done much QE had in fact offloaded those gambling losses onto the public ledger as national debt under the banner of "stimulus" and other fancy named programs.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 04 Feb 2019 11:08

Yes you are right , Indeed you must have been aware of this but this was a short video backed with stastics , He also stated QT is good for Gold :)

I wonder why US didnt spend some percentage of QE money on Infrastructure which would have been more visible to even common people rather then investing in Stocks and promoting buyback etc , consider even the latest report by MSM

US infrastructure is crumbling, and it needs lots of money to fix it: Civil engineer group
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/03/us-infr ... -asce.html

Last 10 years has been good for Indian Stock Market as well probably FII investment.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 07 Feb 2019 08:30

Austin wrote:US infrastructure is crumbling, and it needs lots of money to fix it: Civil engineer group
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/03/us-infr ... -asce.html


what else would a civil engineer group say?
it means more money for them.

its like asking a barber if you need a hair cut.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 07 Feb 2019 08:30

interesting system they have developed there.

-------------

Corrupt Chinese Officials Turning Off Crime-Fighting AI Because It Works Too Well

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02- ... s-too-well

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 07 Feb 2019 09:01

Not surprising , Big Data is sucessfully used to catch economic crimes and even catch spies/moles by agencies

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 07 Feb 2019 09:02

Leaked Wikileaks Doc Reveals US Military Use of IMF, World Bank as “Unconventional” Weapons


Reason we need AIIB and NDB and India should be a major player in this , Not that IMF and WB are in US pocket was not known but wikileaks document confirms it


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