Indian investments thread

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Theo_Fidel » 06 Dec 2014 20:12

Right now I'm getting hammered as my bets on oil are getting whacked big time. One of my stocks is down 70%!! Never mind, I consider this a buying opportunity. No way oil stays in $60 range in the medium term.... ..esp. when everything else seen so sky high, P/E ratios of 30 is what I'm seeing... ...so oil stocks it is...

krishnan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7345
Joined: 07 Oct 2005 12:58
Location: 13° 04' N , 80° 17' E

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby krishnan » 06 Dec 2014 21:05

not sure how it will behave, OPEC's arent slowing down, but who knowns whats in store

SaraLax
BRFite
Posts: 500
Joined: 01 Nov 2005 21:15
Location: redemption land

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby SaraLax » 07 Dec 2014 12:06

'Defence Projects' play on Indian market

Folks who read the Missiles & Munitions thread, Indian Navy thread and similar defence armaments related threads - can possibly make a decision on which listed Indian companies will see a surge in their revenues & profits in the coming years.

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5993
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Vikas » 07 Dec 2014 16:55

Hariprasad wrote:Guru jan, I'm looking to shuffle my portfolio from debt to equity . This is a ULIP and I can just allocate a portion to equity fund. The total amount shifting will be ~ 80 K. My outlook is to maximize profit for a 3-4 year period.

The market is close to its peak. Should I enter equity now or wait for dips ?


Enter with some percentage of your money. There will never be a good or bad time to enter the market. Only thing that makes profit or loss for you is when you exit :)

Don't put all your money in one go. Spread out your investments in 3-4 months time span.
Keep eye on your chosen stocks and buy whenever there is a dip which anyways will come after every few days of bull run.

Hariprasad
BRFite
Posts: 247
Joined: 10 Dec 2005 02:00

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Hariprasad » 08 Dec 2014 19:51

^^ Sirjee, its a fixed term ULIP plan. So my policy matures in another 5 years. So I cannot choose the exit time after that.
The shift will be from debt to a diversified multi cap fund. So I don't have to monitor the individual stock, just the broader market trend. I will follow your advise of spreading out the investments. Thanks!

archan
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6825
Joined: 03 Aug 2007 21:30
Contact:

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby archan » 09 Dec 2014 10:34

This is not the time to sit in debt is what I'm told. If an experienced money manager cannot make money for you in this market, then what is their worth..
Correction is ongoing..

Y. Kanan
BRFite
Posts: 727
Joined: 27 Mar 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Y. Kanan » 10 Dec 2014 03:04

Theo_Fidel wrote:Right now I'm getting hammered as my bets on oil are getting whacked big time. One of my stocks is down 70%!! Never mind, I consider this a buying opportunity. No way oil stays in $60 range in the medium term.... ..esp. when everything else seen so sky high, P/E ratios of 30 is what I'm seeing... ...so oil stocks it is...


Damned if you do and damned if you don't. You can get just as easily burned with "stable", "solid" investments.

I've been averse to oil stocks since they all tanked in 2008, but I reasoned, surely with Modi in power, investing in various Indian infrastructure\construction related stocks would be a good bet. So I shifted most of my equities over to those sectors in January this year.

Made a bunch of money for awhile, but now these stocks are all doing lousy as well. My whole equities portfolio's in the red now. :(

What gives? You'd think Indian construction & infrastructure would be solid bets...

Vamsee
BRFite
Posts: 533
Joined: 16 Mar 2001 12:31

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Vamsee » 10 Dec 2014 03:23

Y. Kanan wrote:
Theo_Fidel wrote:Right now I'm getting hammered as my bets on oil are getting whacked big time. One of my stocks is down 70%!! Never mind, I consider this a buying opportunity. No way oil stays in $60 range in the medium term.... ..esp. when everything else seen so sky high, P/E ratios of 30 is what I'm seeing... ...so oil stocks it is...


Damned if you do and damned if you don't. You can get just as easily burned with "stable", "solid" investments.

I've been averse to oil stocks since they all tanked in 2008, but I reasoned, surely with Modi in power, investing in various Indian infrastructure\construction related stocks would be a good bet. So I shifted most of my equities over to those sectors in January this year.

Made a bunch of money for awhile, but now these stocks are all doing lousy as well. My whole equities portfolio's in the red now. :(

What gives? You'd think Indian construction & infrastructure would be solid bets...


As a general rule, the previous bull market stocks will not do very well in the next bull market. So you may get some bounce, but serious out performance is doubtful.

The "ever green" stocks belong to 1) FMCG/Consumer goods 2) Pharma 3) Financials (Slightly risky since leverage is involved)

The above 3 sector stocks should form the "core" of ones portfolio & them after that you can venture into other areas.

Steel, Sugar, PSUs, Airlines should be kept away from our portfolio :-)
There are examples of Cement companies creating a lot of long term wealth in India but I would keep it away as well.

--Vamsee

Y. Kanan
BRFite
Posts: 727
Joined: 27 Mar 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Y. Kanan » 11 Dec 2014 20:01

Well that was my thinking as well... not to invest in the typical stables like financials but to get in on the next construction and infrastructure boom early, before these sectors have peaked. I (naively) expected more to happen after Modi took the reigns. In point of fact nothing substantial has been accomplished by the new gov't, and increasingly the signs point toward very little concrete action by this administration in the next couple of years either.

I'm glad that only half my investments are in equities, because the rental market continues to do very well as it always does in Bangalore.

Y. Kanan
BRFite
Posts: 727
Joined: 27 Mar 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Y. Kanan » 11 Dec 2014 20:07

Why investors are disappointed with Modi
http://www.morningstar.in/posts/28506/w ... -modi.aspx

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12668
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Suraj » 12 Dec 2014 04:22

Y. Kanan wrote:Why investors are disappointed with Modi
http://www.morningstar.in/posts/28506/w ... -modi.aspx

Sounds too negative. Fund flows into the MSCI fund followed the standard buy on the rumor, sell on the news approach. Besides Indian indices are up significantly more.

deejay
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3858
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby deejay » 12 Dec 2014 07:38

^^^ I agree. Yesterday saw Karan Thappar leading a debate on the same topic with Kiran Mazumdar Shaw and others on the issue. I think this article is in general line with the detractors of the present dispensation.

The Make In India policy is in itself a very big ticket economic initiative and combined with moves on Labour Laws, Disinvestment, etc there is fair progress.

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5993
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Vikas » 12 Dec 2014 14:43

Trying to buy Ashok Leyland for last 3 days at about 48 but no luck.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1183
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Gyan » 17 Dec 2014 18:22

Hi guys, Any suggestions on buying opportunities after fall in markets for last couple of days?

kumarn
BRFite
Posts: 441
Joined: 30 Aug 2007 16:19

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby kumarn » 17 Dec 2014 19:38

Gyan wrote:Hi guys, Any suggestions on buying opportunities after fall in markets for last couple of days?


check out havells and kajaria ceramics

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11078
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby pankajs » 18 Dec 2014 02:44

Be careful with Havells. A few days back the company had announced slowing sales growth this quarter/year.

Wabag, Care rating look good right now.

AIA Engg., All Cargo (1 Logistics), Axis Bank (1 private bank), REPCO (1 Housing finance), Shilpa Medicare (Cancer drug pipeline), MCX, United spirits, Aurobindo Pharma, Page Industries, Amara Raja Batteries, Whirlpool, Cera, Kajaria, Symphony, Atul Auto, VGuard should be on your radar.

An interesting study ...
http://www.motilaloswal.com/Financial-S ... tudy/11538

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1183
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Gyan » 18 Dec 2014 10:22

I thought people here would give us inputs about tech savvy companies in important niche areas waiting to become multi baggers with Indian Growth story

kumarn
BRFite
Posts: 441
Joined: 30 Aug 2007 16:19

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby kumarn » 18 Dec 2014 12:08

havells is an excellent company. after the downgrade the price has become quite attractive.

REPCO , MCX, United spirits, Aurobindo Pharma, Page Industries, Amara Raja Batteries, Whirlpool, Cera, Kajaria, Symphony, Atul Auto, VGuard are all excellent companies worth considering.

kumarn
BRFite
Posts: 441
Joined: 30 Aug 2007 16:19

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby kumarn » 18 Dec 2014 12:10

Gyan wrote:I thought people here would give us inputs about tech savvy companies in important niche areas waiting to become multi baggers with Indian Growth story


why bother about high tech which may or may not work, which you may or may not understand.

whats wrong with something simpler? say, a kajaria? Look around. Most of the houses getting constructed use their tiles...Lots of houses will get constructed with the india story and modi's pucca ghar for all schemes.

If you want to invest, read a little on the subject. Try One up on Wall street by Peter Lynch. He explains beautifully this concept beautifully on how you can make money by investing in stocks of companies that you are familiar with from your everyday life.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1183
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Gyan » 18 Dec 2014 16:35

Companies in intense competitive environment tend to go bankrupt. What is the USP of these companies like brand, technology, entry barrier, assets which would make these companies valuable over a period of 5 years.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11078
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby pankajs » 18 Dec 2014 16:50

kumarn wrote:whats wrong with something simpler? say, a kajaria? Look around. Most of the houses getting constructed use their tiles...Lots of houses will get constructed with the india story and modi's pucca ghar for all schemes.

Agree. Look for simple stories that will play out in the next 10-20 years and invest for outperformance in those sectors.

Goldman Sacs has just upgraded Titan, the best play on India's insatiable appetite for gold jewellery and move from unorganized sector to organized sector on concerns abt quality.

Relaxo, La Opala, Adani ports, Supreme Inds, Century Ply, Pidilite Inds from the recent performers could be added to your portfolio.
HDFC Bank, Asian paint, Bharat Forge, Sun Pharma, Lupin, Motherson Sumi are some old favorites.

Also, some sectors are out of bound (Online retail) or have some major issues (Power sector) or the main sector is too expensive. Better to play them indirectly i.e Logistic is an indirect play on Online Retail and power equipment instead of power sector. This is the Pick and Shovel theory.

Logistics & GST play > Blue dart / Gati / TCI / All Cargo
Power equipment Play > Alstom T&D India

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1183
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Gyan » 18 Dec 2014 18:28

We need some supporting facts and "figures". Let me give you example of "Vipul" it had market cap of Rs 50 crores with assets of Rs 5,000 crores. I discovered this when I went to Gurgaon to buy a property. Similarly CMC 20 years back had market cap of Rs 20 crores while having orders of Rs. 1000 crores in hand. So we need a little bio data of the Company except just its name etc etc

kumarn
BRFite
Posts: 441
Joined: 30 Aug 2007 16:19

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby kumarn » 18 Dec 2014 21:06

Gyan wrote:We need some supporting facts and "figures". Let me give you example of "Vipul" it had market cap of Rs 50 crores with assets of Rs 5,000 crores. I discovered this when I went to Gurgaon to buy a property. Similarly CMC 20 years back had market cap of Rs 20 crores while having orders of Rs. 1000 crores in hand. So we need a little bio data of the Company except just its name etc etc


sir ji, apni kamai lagaoge? thoda fact and figure check kar lo khud se. I think you have got enough sound names to get started on.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11078
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby pankajs » 18 Dec 2014 21:41

To get you started Gyan saab ...

For new Ideas > http://rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in/
Snapshot fundamentals > http://www.screener.in/
General research > http://www.moneycontrol.com/ especially check News and Announcements for any firm you are researching
Respective company website or NSE or BSE for the company financials
For everything else > http://www.google.com

If the company interests you after the initial research please do a detailed research and definitely look at the full financials going back 5 years at the minimum.

Lets check the latest posts on http://rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in/ for new ideas.

Stocks That Will Benefit Most From GST & Which Should Be Bought Now
http://rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in/stocks-th ... ought-now/

Aurobindo Pharma Has Immense Potential To Grow: Sharekhan
http://rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in/aurobindo ... sharekhan/

Three Stocks Worth Buying Now: Amar Ambani Of IIFL
http://rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in/three-sto ... i-of-iifl/

What Is Granules India & How Does It Qualify As A Potential 100-Bagger Stock?
http://rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in/what-is-g ... ger-stock/

VA Tech Wabag Has Enticing Opportunities In Offing: ICICI-Direct
http://rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in/va-tech-w ... ci-direct/

The suggestions in this post and all previous posts are just to get you started on your search for the most promising companies but you must do your own research before you put any money on any of the ideas shared here.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1183
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Gyan » 19 Dec 2014 08:57

Thanks for the links, though I am aware of most of them. I had put 50% of my savings in equity when BJP acquired majority. My returns were excellent till Bhushan tanked. Now I am still better off then FD but nothing spectacular. I am waiting for lower interest rates and turn around of economy to benefit stocks. Thinking of buying sugar, power and infra by taking contrarian view.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1183
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Gyan » 19 Dec 2014 08:59

Newbies reading above links should be careful of pump and dump.

member_20292
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2062
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby member_20292 » 19 Dec 2014 09:34

SaraLax wrote:'Defence Projects' play on Indian market

Folks who read the Missiles & Munitions thread, Indian Navy thread and similar defence armaments related threads - can possibly make a decision on which listed Indian companies will see a surge in their revenues & profits in the coming years.


lnt? Tata?

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11078
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby pankajs » 19 Dec 2014 09:44

Defense plays > L&T, Bharat Forge, Bharat Electronics, Astra Micro, BEML, TATA (But which firm? Motors perhaps?)

These are the old horses but a bunch of new ones have been granted industrial licenses very recently including Pipavav Defence, Punj Loyd ...

But apart from BEL and Astra Micro none of the others are pure defense plays and have large part of their revenue form other business areas and that will continue for the foreseeable future. That is something to keep in mind.

SaraLax
BRFite
Posts: 500
Joined: 01 Nov 2005 21:15
Location: redemption land

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby SaraLax » 19 Dec 2014 19:40

mahadevbhu wrote:
SaraLax wrote:'Defence Projects' play on Indian market

Folks who read the Missiles & Munitions thread, Indian Navy thread and similar defence armaments related threads - can possibly make a decision on which listed Indian companies will see a surge in their revenues & profits in the coming years.


lnt? Tata?


BEL is a good pick still even though it has run up since May 2014. It was languishing at 900 prior to LS Elections. It ran up from 2000 odd to 2700 just in the last month when ASTRA missiles testing phase came to an end. It works on many electronics, radar aspects of Air & Defence products and has potential to do more. It gets work even when we import defence stuff due to the mandatory GoI rider to make some small part of the defence order in India. It also does EVM stuff for Indian and certain African countries (refer Namibia & etc).

L&T is another good bet from Defence perspective ... with potential to work on numerous defence ships, submarine & certain armament orders. But then it is more than just a Defence engineering company.

vineetmehta
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 40
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby vineetmehta » 22 Dec 2014 08:59

VikasRaina wrote:Trying to buy Ashok Leyland for last 3 days at about 48 but no luck.


Dear Vikas,

I bought GARWAL, GRUFIN, RICAUT and WANBUR few days back when you recommended them. Please advise when should i sell them. Thank you.

Regards,

Aditya_V
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10789
Joined: 05 Apr 2006 16:25

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Aditya_V » 22 Dec 2014 09:17

SaraLax wrote:
mahadevbhu wrote:quote="SaraLax"]'Defence Projects' play on Indian market

Folks who read the Missiles & Munitions thread, Indian Navy thread and similar defence armaments related threads - can possibly make a decision on which listed Indian companies will see a surge in their revenues & profits in the coming years./quote]

lnt? Tata?


BEL is a good pick still even though it has run up since May 2014. It was languishing at 900 prior to LS Elections. It ran up from 2000 odd to 2700 just in the last month when ASTRA missiles testing phase came to an end. It works on many electronics, radar aspects of Air & Defence products and has potential to do more. It gets work even when we import defence stuff due to the mandatory GoI rider to make some small part of the defence order in India. It also does EVM stuff for Indian and certain African countries (refer Namibia & etc).

L&T is another good bet from Defence perspective ... with potential to work on numerous defence ships, submarine & certain armament orders. But then it is more than just a Defence engineering company.


I think there was a stock split of 1:4 in the interim, so 2000 to 2700 would translate to 500 to 675

kumarn
BRFite
Posts: 441
Joined: 30 Aug 2007 16:19

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby kumarn » 22 Dec 2014 11:14

Housing finance companies are a good investment bet. Vamsee has already written about Gruh with facts and figures. It is probably the best play in this segment. Repco is another one, which I hold from 320 levels (current price 630).

For some more background:After Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Mohnish Pabrai & Basant Maheshwari, Even UBS Is Bullish About Housing Finance Stocks

SaraLax
BRFite
Posts: 500
Joined: 01 Nov 2005 21:15
Location: redemption land

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby SaraLax » 22 Dec 2014 12:35

Aditya_V wrote:
SaraLax wrote:
BEL is a good pick still even though it has run up since May 2014. It was languishing at 900 prior to LS Elections. It ran up from 2000 odd to 2700 just in the last month when ASTRA AKASHmissiles testing phase came to an end. It works on many electronics, radar aspects of Air & Defence products and has potential to do more. It gets work even when we import defence stuff due to the mandatory GoI rider to make some small part of the defence order in India. It also does EVM stuff for Indian and certain African countries (refer Namibia & etc).

L&T is another good bet from Defence perspective ... with potential to work on numerous defence ships, submarine & certain armament orders. But then it is more than just a Defence engineering company.


I think there was a stock split of 1:4 in the interim, so 2000 to 2700 would translate to 500 to 675

BEL is still a Rs 10 face value stock. I am not aware of any stock split or bonus issues in last 2 years atleast.

BTW - In my last post, I wrongly indicated that BEL is involved in development of 'ASTRA' missile.
It is actually AKASH missile, that BEL is involved in.

I am pasting below a snippet from an article on BEL in MINT.

" The government has cleared defence projects worth Rs.1.54 trillion, which includes purchase of submarines, anti-tank guided missiles and surveillance aircraft in the past six months. This includes approval for an integrated air command and control systems project worth Rs.7,120 crore last week, which will be executed by Bharat Electronics, according to an Edelweiss Research note dated 24 November. There is a possibility that Bharat Electronics will bag roughly around 5-10% of defence projects that the government has cleared over a span of two to three years, say analysts. The order inflow for the company is expected to surge by around a third to Rs.5,800 crore in 2014-15 and to Rs.7,000 crore by the next fiscal year, according to analysts’ estimates. The government’s efforts to bolster the defence industry together with an improvement in earnings have helped the company. "

Read more at: http://www.livemint.com/Money/JZBF2uSYI ... ource=copy

Disclaimer : I have been holding BEL stock since many years

archan
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6825
Joined: 03 Aug 2007 21:30
Contact:

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby archan » 06 Jan 2015 15:56

OK.. spectacular market crash today. All the gains I was admiring watching will have disappeared today. :D
Any jewels to be picked up when they are down in the dumps? its a fall, but can also be an opportunity for the long term.

Vamsee
BRFite
Posts: 533
Joined: 16 Mar 2001 12:31

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Vamsee » 06 Jan 2015 23:03

archan wrote:OK.. spectacular market crash today. All the gains I was admiring watching will have disappeared today. :D
Any jewels to be picked up when they are down in the dumps? its a fall, but can also be an opportunity for the long term.


If you are looking long term & are ok with 18-20% CAGR, then try ITC :)

Rishirishi
BRFite
Posts: 1055
Joined: 12 Mar 2005 02:30

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Rishirishi » 07 Jan 2015 06:30

Vamsee wrote:
archan wrote:OK.. spectacular market crash today. All the gains I was admiring watching will have disappeared today. :D
Any jewels to be picked up when they are down in the dumps? its a fall, but can also be an opportunity for the long term.


If you are looking long term & are ok with 18-20% CAGR, then try ITC :)


18-20% is just unrealistc. Becase even IT cant deliver that over a very long term. In India I think purchase of property is good. But stay away from unreliable builders when making your booking. Even large builders like DLF and Omax are unsafe.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11078
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby pankajs » 07 Jan 2015 11:45

Banking is a proxy for the economy. You can't be sure about which segment of manufacturing will do well. But banks, being lenders, will definitely thrive if the economy recovers. Investing in them is a smarter way of playing the early part of the cyclical recovery.

Among the banks if you go for *quality* over value you can make decent money over the longer term without much of a risk or loosing too much sleep. A stock that keeps you awake at night is neither good for you portfolio nor your health.

HDFC Bank can deliver ~20% year on year over the next 20 years with lesser risk than almost every stock in the market. The returns may be uneven depending on the market conditions but over 20 years it should average out. One gentleman who has made a fortune over the last 10 years once commented that instead of keeping money IN the bank people should buy HDFC bank stock. I *think* this was his advice to the *risk averse* folks. Of course stock investing is risky while FD/Bank deposits carry very little risk so each to his/her own comfort zone.

http://www.screener.in/company/?q=500180
Compounded Profit Growth
10 Years: 32.68%
5 Years: 30.49%
3 Years: 29.25%
TTM: 22.33%

30% *Compounded* profit growth year on year for the last 10 years at-least with minimum *deviation* from the mean! What a great track Record!! Data is on Company performance BUT stock performance will usually follow in the long run. Compare this to any other banking stock and you will find what *quality* means and why the market *always* makes you pay *premium* for quality. Try finding any other stock in the market that has been so consistent in its profits.

It is very rare to see talking heads on CNBC TV get exited over HDFC bank. The *consistent* performance that makes it such a good stock to own makes it un-interesting for most analyst. When the market is in doldrums most folks who want to remain invested in financials run to this counter to seek cover!

In the current scenario wait for the markets to come out of the current downturn/correction before committing any fresh money.

BTW, The above is just me thinking out loud trying to recollect some of the received wisdom on the subject. Stock market investment is a very risky and one *must* do ones own research *before* putting any money in the market.

Edit: Many corrections. Kept adding titbits.

Vamsee
BRFite
Posts: 533
Joined: 16 Mar 2001 12:31

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Vamsee » 08 Jan 2015 02:54

^^^^^
pankajs,

I am holding HDFC Bank since last 7 years :-)
It got compounded at a rate of 25% *EXCLUDING* dividends for me. It drifted down from around P/E of ~30 when I was buying to ~24 now ( I recommended it at P/E 22 in this thread I think)

I saw notional value of my investment in HDFC bank go down 53% from my purchase price during the carnage of 2008-09 :rotfl:

Definitely a very good scrip.

--Vamsee

Vikas
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5993
Joined: 03 Dec 2005 02:40
Location: Where DST doesn't bother me
Contact:

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Vikas » 08 Jan 2015 10:44

vineetmehta wrote:
VikasRaina wrote:Trying to buy Ashok Leyland for last 3 days at about 48 but no luck.


Dear Vikas,

I bought GARWAL, GRUFIN, RICAUT and WANBUR few days back when you recommended them. Please advise when should i sell them. Thank you.

Regards,


Vineet, Different stocks will hit high at different points in time.
You need to see what kind of profit you want to make and if you want to be a trader or investor.
It would be very hard for anyone to advice you when to get out unless you specify what kindo f profit you are looking at and what is your time horizon.
Since Indian economy story is on the uptrend again so would be a good idea to hold onto your stocks for some more time and hopefully gain more.

e.g. Garwale Ropes has gained majorly today. A trader who is making 20-30% would want out while someone like me would wait till 250 before exiting this stock.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11078
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby pankajs » 08 Jan 2015 12:15

Vamsee wrote:I am holding HDFC Bank since last 7 years :-)
It got compounded at a rate of 25% *EXCLUDING* dividends for me. It drifted down from around P/E of ~30 when I was buying to ~24 now ( I recommended it at P/E 22 in this thread I think)

I saw notional value of my investment in HDFC bank go down 53% from my purchase price during the carnage of 2008-09 :rotfl:

Additional data points / observations.

1. Compare the performance of HDFC bank to other private banks during the carnage of 2008-09. I just did a cursory check on ICICI and Kotak and both seem to have suffered a ~75% decline during the same period.

2. It closed at ~104 (Split/bonus adjusted) at the end of 2004 and at ~951 for year ending 2104. That's ~25% compounded over the last 10 years.

3. Even while the profits have increased by ~30% year on year, there is a slight downwards trend as observed in the data. BTW, the profit numbers are from a website and can have data quality issue. Please refer to the company financial reports for the most authentic data.

10 Years profit CAGR > 32.68%
5 Years profit CAGR > 30.49%
3 Years profit CAGR > 29.25%

4. The TTM profit is close to ~22%. This taken with the previous point, it is not surprising to see the PE ~24 at the present.

5. However, I recently chanced upon an interview of Aditya Puri (on youtube) where he was confident of getting back to 30% growth in the years ahead. In fact he gave a mathematical formula linking the bank growth to the GDP growth figure to explain the recent under performance and the expected bounce back.

Keeping all the above in mind, I *think* it is not too *bold* to assume a ~25% Profit CAGR and a ~20% Stock price CAGR over the next 20 years. Given that the Banking sector is tied to the economy, the joker here is the GDP growth.

>> This is for folks who want a *passive/lazy* exposure to the Indian economy for a decent return outside of the Mutual funds and ETFs and are willing to hold for longer time-frame.


Return to “Technology & Economic Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: nash and 10 guests