Bharat Rakshak

Kumaran ji, I already have Bank in my kitty. Bought it few years back when it was trading at about 650

Another stock that has zoomed up in last couple of months is CUPID Rubbers. I bought it when it was at 29 and currently it is trading at ~65.
With a huge order in hand and very little debt, Cupid rubber is expected to go upto 90-100 but do keep SL in case you intend to buy it for quick turnover.

kumarn wrote:

I came across this blog yesterday: https://investmentinsightindia.wordpress.com/page/2/

He gives an excellent list of companies, which held together can safely compound at 20%-25% for the next decade at least. Invest in this list, sleep easy and let time do the trick for you!

Kumarn ji, Isn't the blog pretty old. When these stocks were mentioned, The bull run was just off the block but now with it running super fast, Do you think his advice still holds water ?

Vikas bhai, In a bull market every stock jumps up. It is easy to make notional gains. But once the bull run ends, all of it will be given back in inferior companies. The trick is to be able to retain a large part of what you made once the bears come calling. This is possible mostly with high quality names. Look at the names in the list again. all of them are high quality companies with strong brands. most have been in business growing consistently for decades and will likely keep growing for a few decades to come. That is what makes me confident that over a long period you will still make a decent 20-25 percent cagr with the stocks in the list.

As I am based out in India I am planning to invest a good sum of money in Debt GILT Fund and Income Funds for Long Term , These are for my Retirement Fund so safety is a factor.

The Goal is to start STP from these funds to different SIP.

Since these debt funds are traded in Market I would like to know if its good to invest in Debt fund of these two types for long term 5-8 years instead of Bank FD or Post Office Saving Schemes.

What happens when say Equity Market crashes by 40 % will this debt fund too would get impacted negatively ?

Thanks

Out of curiosity, checked Indosolar stock.

I would avoid it like a plague


--Vamsee

Austin wrote:As I am based out in India I am planning to invest a good sum of money in Debt GILT Fund and Income Funds for Long Term , These are for my Retirement Fund so safety is a factor.

The Goal is to start STP from these funds to different SIP.

Since these debt funds are traded in Market I would like to know if its good to invest in Debt fund of these two types for long term 5-8 years instead of Bank FD or Post Office Saving Schemes.

What happens when say Equity Market crashes by 40 % will this debt fund too would get impacted negatively ?

Thanks

GILT funds are very sensitive to interest rates and are not suitable for long term holding. As the interest rates are expected to go down, now may be a good time to buy gilt funds, but not for the purpose of long term investing. It is essentially trying to time the (debt) market. If you are interested in long term sovereign debt, you should look at buying GOI bonds directly (not gilt funds) and holding them till maturity.

It is not clear what you want to do with STP -- move from debt to equity over a period of time? In that case look into ultra short term or floating rate debt funds to hold your initial investment amount.

Differences in taxation between Bank FDs and bonds/bond-funds is another factor to consider.

If the equity market crashes by 40%, what impact will it have on rupee and interest rates? There will be some impact, and if the interest rates go up, the value of your bond fund decreases.

Thanks for your response.

a_bharat wrote:
GILT funds are very sensitive to interest rates and are not suitable for long term holding. As the interest rates are expected to go down, now may be a good time to buy gilt funds, but not for the purpose of long term investing. It is essentially trying to time the (debt) market. If you are interested in long term sovereign debt, you should look at buying GOI bonds directly (not gilt funds) and holding them till maturity.

Indeed GILT are sensitive but looking at the expected interest rate cuts and boom expected in GILT funds I invested in in 2 days back only to be pleasantly surprised to see I am already runing in small loss.

GILT have done well in 2014 given return of 15-19 % , Experts are projecting for good returns this year too.

Citizen cant invest directly in GOI Bonds ( Gsec ) have to go through MF.

Currently I am invested in following Debt Fund in Income and GILT category

ICICI Prudential Long Term - Direct Plan - Growth
ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund Investment Plan PF Option - Direct Plan
ICICI Prudential Flexible Income - Direct Plan - Daily Dividend
HDFC Gilt Fund - Long Term Plan - Direct Plan - Growth Option
HDFC High Interest Fund - Dynamic Plan - Direct Plan - Growth Option
HDFC Income Fund - Direct Plan - Growth Option

The Goal is to build a corpus over long term 8-10 years and stay in Debt to minimise risk. Avoiding Bank FD's and Post Office Schemes.

It is not clear what you want to do with STP -- move from debt to equity over a period of time? In that case look into ultra short term or floating rate debt funds to hold your initial investment amount.

I am already running SIP for past 3 years in equity and so far they are giving good returns

But the idea if current STP is to invest in 2-3 MF in Balanced of mostly invested in Debt category over a period of 10 years.

My primary goal is to keep the investment as safe as possible by being invested in Debt Fund ( GILT Short Term and Income Funds Long Term ) and then use these funds to STP into Balance Fund and Hybrid Funds.

I am looking at HDFC Balanced Fund thats invested 60 % into Equity and 40 % in into Debt/Money Market and ICiCI Pru Child Care Study Plan that 30 % into Equity and 60 % into Debt.

If the equity market crashes by 40%, what impact will it have on rupee and interest rates? There will be some impact, and if the interest rates go up, the value of your bond fund decreases.

I agree there would be some impact I have seen in 2009 Debt Funds falling to as low as minus 7-8 percent , Thats probably the risk I have to take compared to be in FD.

But Long term they should give return of atleast 9 %

Banks are down and am looking to buy Axis today. It touched 625 some days ago and is hovering around 555 today. Any thoughts? I'm not really looking for real long term at the moment.

Something tells me that the return on the shares of the manager would be higher than the returns on the funds managed by that manager!

Axis is one of the most recommended Banking stock but in short term most stocks are news driven. Who can predict?

archan wrote:Banks are down and am looking to buy Axis today. It touched 625 some days ago and is hovering around 555 today. Any thoughts? I'm not really looking for real long term at the moment.

This is what a typical retail investor does. Buys a stock thinking of a quick 5-10% gain in a few days. If it rises, good. If the stock falls then he becomes a long term investor perforce. My suggestion is that even if you are doing this short term trades, why not in a good company? Pankajs mentioned gruh has fallen 10 percent from the recent high. Take a look at it. Most likely you will make decent returns even if you are invested for a quarter. If not, it is good for the long term!

kumarn wrote:

archan wrote:Banks are down and am looking to buy Axis today. It touched 625 some days ago and is hovering around 555 today. Any thoughts? I'm not really looking for real long term at the moment.

This is what a typical retail investor does. Buys a stock thinking of a quick 5-10% gain in a few days. If it rises, good. If the stock falls then he becomes a long term investor perforce.

I do have some long term investments. I plan to keep L&T, Lupin, Ambuja, HDFC Bank, SBI, ICICI for long. In energy I grabbed 1000 shares of Suzlon when it was around 15, and so far it has shown growth. I have some 1000 of Indo Wind (cheap @Rs 5 each) and 100 of Indosolar (tentative there). I have some 200 of PTC India and very few of Power Grid (holding from months, mildly in red).

Among risky one I have Richa Industries based on the blogger theaceinvestor's research which I hope in the longer term will grow well. Atul Auto was doing well but is now in red. They say it has good long term future.

I might do the same with Axis though making a few thousands once in a while adds the feelgood factor.
I just bought 100 shares of Axis and 30 of Yes Bank, investing some 75k. Hope they will recover from the two day free fall. Let's see. I did book profit on HDFC and the two Yes Bank shares I had before they tumbled. Shorted some of my ICICI bank for a mild loss. Gruh finance next, especially with budget season.

i have a long time put money in dsp blackrock tax saver, hdfc tax saver, franklin tax saver. and they have all done well. the 3 yr lockin permits the fund manager to make more long term decisions vs redemption pressure on other funds if short term gains lag behind peers.
added franklin prima plus recently. thats it. wife also has much the same.

now i want to dabble in stocks like the old days..maybe axis bank, ambuja, lupin and sbi. economic growth needs lot of financing and cement.

Hawkins has reported a bad quarter - topline growth is bad, but in-line with most major consumer companies. The stock has been punished badly, rather hammered by Mr. market. You may want to take a look. Disclamer: I have held some since it was 450. CMP: ~3700.

strange thing is I saw hawkins as a kid in 70s and 42 yrs later there is still no viable competitor to their pressure cookers...hard to beat their reliability and durability.
prestige ttk was at one time active did not like their lid design, not seeing them anymore.

Chances are Hawkins will be around for decades. That is why it is such a good stock. when you have stocks like hawkins, why go for something like indosolar and potentially lose your shirt! Just buy good companies with strong brands at reasonable valuations and sleep easy. Good companies with strong brands do not disappear overnight.

Or you invest small amount on one risky company. Even if at the end of the year you lose 70% of it it won't hurt that much. OTOH if it gives a 400% return you get to grin.

archan wrote:Or you invest small amount on one risky company. Even if at the end of the year you lose 70% of it it won't hurt that much. OTOH if it gives a 400% return you get to grin.

sir ji, uske liye Las Vegas ha na!

On a serious note, I have 120 percent of my net worth ( outside of real estate) invested in stocks. Because I bet hard I need steady compounders with little risk of permanent capital loss. Indosolar does not pass the test for that.

kumarn wrote:

archan wrote:Or you invest small amount on one risky company. Even if at the end of the year you lose 70% of it it won't hurt that much. OTOH if it gives a 400% return you get to grin.

sir ji, uske liye Las Vegas ha na!

On a serious note, I have 120 percent of my net worth ( outside of real estate) invested in stocks. Because I bet hard I need steady compounders with little risk of permanent capital loss. Indosolar does not pass the test for that.

Leverage?

Archan saar,

The number one job of investor (as opposed to "speculator" ) is to not lose money. Once we do it for a few years in the market, one is bound to make money and if you can do it for decades, you can get into the evil 1% club

Even if at the end of the year you lose 70% of it it won't hurt that much.

Disagree. Investing is like journey towards prosperity. Every time you go back, you need to cover the lost distance & you can never get back the lost time

Regards,
Vamsee

==============
Added later: Just to clarify, I have nothing against speculation as long as people recognize that it is speculation and not investment

Book Recommendation:

One Up On Wall Street: How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market

By Peter Lynch

This is one of the best book for investors and a very easy read. No complex algorithms or formulas. Just commonsense advise based on real life experience of ace investor.

Vamsee wrote:Book Recommendation:

One Up On Wall Street: How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market

By Peter Lynch

This is one of the best book for investors and a very easy read. No complex algorithms or formulas. Just commonsense advise based on real life experience of ace investor.

Second that! Any one who wants to invest in the stock market directly or even through mutual funds should read this book.

Another reco. Tejas of books on investing :The Thoughtful Investor

Vamsee wrote:Leverage?

Yes, LAS.

kumarn wrote:

Vamsee wrote:Leverage?

Yes, LAS.

What is the interest rate they charge for it? (ICICI Direct?)

^^^12%. Axis Bank

Just heard Uday Kotak talk about Early Recognition of NPA that is due to be implemented by April 2015. PSU bank will be hit in the short-term and maybe even some private bank (ICICI ???).

So folks be careful and do adequate research before buying Banks but especially PSU banks for the next 2 quarters or better buy quality. Perhaps housing finance companies could be a good option, a play on both the interest rate and housing for all.

OTOH,
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market ... 92953.html

Sonia: What are you advising clients attending your conference in terms of sector wise positioning now? Doshi: Sector wise I think financial will always lead because any big movement in the economy, financial will be the biggest beneficiary. Then there is interest, people have now started revising in infrastructure also and capital goods plus automobiles which is also a part of the economy. Once this entire movement of coal mining, iron ore mining and all that will start will lead to the even the demand of the heavy commercial vehicle and all. So, led by financial, then infra and your automobile which will be the sector which we will prefer to recommend heavily to out clients.

Latha: When you say financial will you buy PSU banks, we saw that deep gashes coming in Punjab National Bank (PNB), Bank of Baroda (BoB), some of the biggest banks in the public sector space. Even ICICI Bank was not spared, what will you buy or what will you advice buying? Doshi: I think mix of both. In the large public sector banks, State Bank India (SBI) will be the biggest beneficiary of the economy turning around and NPA coming down once this power and coal related problems get slowly addressed and all this will reflect into reducing in their NPA and may be because of even the G-Sec coming down will help them for their debt portfolio also. So, SBI will be the biggest beneficiary followed by Canara Bank which has shown little better result also.

I was tracking MF returns for a decade , There are two events when MF didnt perform too well one is 2008 and other 2011.

2008 was the era of banking crisis , dont recollect which event took place in 2011 for MF to go into negative territory

With AAP win in Delhi, I expect 5% fall, pls suggest some blue chips to buy and keep.

http://forbesindia.com/article/investme ... 15/39505/1
20 Quality stocks to invest in 2015

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/mar ... 143923.cms
Value for money: Top 5 picks for retail investors in the long run
* Sun Pharma
* United Spirits
* Ajanta Pharma
* Reliance Industries
* HDFC Bank

http://rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in/top-twelv ... -feb-2015/
Edelweiss has identified 12 stocks that it claims are poised for good gains in the future

Edelweiss has picked the stocks after thorough research and analysis. The stocks are picked on the basis of opportunity size, moat around business, corporate governance, strong earnings visibility, leadership position in sector, strong management credentials etc.

Found this on the net.

What happens when you don't buy quality? And what happens when you do?
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/284 ... t_2013.pdf

By prof. Sanjay Bakshi of MDI, who is himself a successful investor.
His twitter page > https://twitter.com/Sanjay__Bakshi

Any good stocks that became cheaper yesterday?

My first post on the investments thread!

What do you guys think of CenturyPly? They posted good numbers recently and have a good order book for at least another year!. I've bought it in 6-7 short bursts and my avg is about 150 .. the stock closed at 185.75.. I think this one will give a healthy return of about 50-60% in a couple of years.

You bought it, so you should tell us

Like I said, the numbers were good and the order book is solid for atleast another year is what I gathered. Wanted a second opinion on the the company since the brand is good and they seem to be doing proper things to keep it that way.

IIRC, the topline is expected to double in 3 years so the profits as well as the price should double in 3 years too all else being equal.

I bought a small chunk about a month before the latest results and a similar chunk just following it. Will add or reduce a similar quantity following the next result.

BTW check this out.

https://www.valueresearchonline.com/

While it is mostly mutual funds on its main page, use the top search bar to check stock data. The most interesting segments are "Insider Trades" and "Fund Houses which are invested in the stock" with a QonQ fund trend.

Apart from the Annual and Quarterly financials, you also have access to "Shareholding Pattern" helpful in judging the institutional support that the stock enjoys and the trend over the last 5 quarters.

On the right hand you have a list of "Related Stocks"

MSFT raised $11 Billion by selling debt yesterday (they have about $90billion cash already), traders are opining that the rates may go up in the near term??