Indian investments thread

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Suraj
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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Suraj » 06 Sep 2014 04:39

It is not speculation that's the issue. Archan is a new investor, by his admission. The branch manager is misusing his position to direct a new investor into a very risky speculative bet on margin. That's not a very good example of a fiduciary responsibility. I disagree with the suggestion that losing some money through a margin call will teach a new investor anything. What does archan learn here that helps him long term ? He's leveraged 3:1; his potential losses are 4x his initial investment. Good foundations are very helpful to investors. Speculative betting on margin is not a good introduction to the world of investment; it's just a casino gamble.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby member_22733 » 06 Sep 2014 05:17

Your main investment vehicle should be low cost, highly diversified index funds. That is the only proven investment strategy that "works". There is also a Buffet way, but it takes a lot of research, with a lot of unknowns and hence is extremely risky.

Margin and leveraged investments should never-ever be your main or only investment vehicle. Interest on debt is a certainty, but returns from the stock are not. The odds are usually unknown and at one point or the other gamblers ruin kicks in. The manager is selling snake oil and needs to be fired.

If you have more than 1 million dollars, you can play with about 50k on your margin and make a lot of money on it if you bet right. If you have less than a million dollars as your net worth, then dont worry about margin, you wont get too far with it :)

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby archan » 06 Sep 2014 07:46

I should clarify.

1) This is not my main investment, but a rather small amount to gamble with. Yes losing it 4x would pinch, but I had to this once. We'll find out in a few days.

2) I will be investing in some top MFs. Like Rs. 25K in the top four. I'll probably choose two balanced MFs, one skewed to equity and one pure equity type.

3) My main investment is in an agricultural land part of which has now developed into a business that is doing well. Dad is taking care of it.

4) This stock is that of a company which has recently split to make their share available to small time players like me. Their value had shot up over 4K putting them out of reach. Everyone expects them to do better in the coming days. People in India are quite bullish now-a-dins. Modi ji ki jai.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby LakshO » 06 Sep 2014 12:45

For me, F&O and margin trading are red flags! Personally, I don't even go there.

I tried to understand F&O, hedge funds, commodities & currency trading, futures etc. I felt it was all too complicated for me, too many variables, too many questions, too few answers etc. And I feel vindicated when Warren Buffet called F&O as financial wepons of mass destruction :eek: When a pro like Buffett stays away from these instruments, I see no reason to wade in.

I never invest in stock market with borrowed money. If I don't have funds, I don't play. This has stood me in good stead for more than 15+ years 8)

I am a plain vanilla buy-and-hold investor; thanks to NaMo, this was a good year for Sensex & Nifty and my portfolio has done well :mrgreen:

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby archan » 06 Sep 2014 16:34

LakshO wrote:I am a plain vanilla buy-and-hold investor; thanks to NaMo, this was a good year for Sensex & Nifty and my portfolio has done well :mrgreen:

I want to eventually be like that. Market was on a roll though and entering was a bit risky. Everyone was expecting some correction and it finally happened on Thursday. I entered, in a little way. It's not that I took a huge risk by borrowing. It's not a whole lot of money - I am new, not stupid. :mrgreen:
The stock in question is a keeper by reputation, so I might not even sell it next week. I can hold on to it by buying off the borrowed chunk.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Vikas » 07 Sep 2014 14:27

I am following tips from certain 'financial entities' and invest small chunks of money in the stock of such companies. Till now I have made 15-20% in last 3-4 months. My exposure to equity market is mostly in Bluechip companies and now I am trying to ride the current wave.
I still don't have the confidence to take all my money out of my savings in bank FD's and dump it into equity market and then fly on just prayer.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby archan » 07 Sep 2014 21:19

VikasRaina wrote:I still don't have the confidence to take all my money out of my savings in bank FD's and dump it into equity market and then fly on just prayer.

:eek: Who would have it? that's not wise to do. There are mixed or "balanced" MFs, debt funds ityadi. Once in a blue moon some builders float certain funds which are construction related. This is one sector that will grow, with several cities being planned.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby pankajs » 08 Sep 2014 10:17

Reuters India ‏@ReutersIndia 17m

Goldman raises Nifty target to 9,000 for Sept 2015 http://reut.rs/1ohmB4P


Head of Motilal Oswal, considered to be a master investor by many, has Sensex doubling in 3-4 years.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby pankajs » 08 Sep 2014 10:30

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/vqgvbm ... ral-h.html

Govt to allocate Rs75,600 crore for rural electrification: Goyal
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government plans to spend Rs.75,600 crore to supply electricity through separate feeders for agricultural and rural domestic consumption, aimed at providing round-the-clock power to village households.

...
While Rs.43,000 crore has been earmarked for the Deendayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana for feeder separation, Rs.32,600 crore is the outlay for strengthening sub-transmission and distribution systems, including 100% metering and underground cabling, said Piyush Goyal, Union minister for power, coal and new and renewable energy.

The scheme is based on an initiative called Jyotigram Yojana in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat and is named after late Deendayal Upadhyaya, a leader of the erstwhile Bharatiya Jana Sangh, the forerunner of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). State-owned Rural Electrification Corp. Ltd (REC) is the nodal agency for the ambitious scheme.

As a whole quite positive for the electrical T&D industry. Just bought some shares in REC Ltd. Investment logic based on the above reported goal and quantum of spending planned.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Theo_Fidel » 09 Sep 2014 08:50

Suraj wrote:It is not speculation that's the issue. Archan is a new investor, by his admission. The branch manager is misusing his position to direct a new investor into a very risky speculative bet on margin. That's not a very good example of a fiduciary responsibility. I disagree with the suggestion that losing some money through a margin call will teach a new investor anything. What does archan learn here that helps him long term ? He's leveraged 3:1; his potential losses are 4x his initial investment. Good foundations are very helpful to investors. Speculative betting on margin is not a good introduction to the world of investment; it's just a casino gamble.


I don't mean to speak for archan saar but it seems to me that he wanted to speculate a little and specifically asked the branch manager how to do that. Not sure what fiduciary responsibility means in that case.

Like I said it is human nature to gamble a little on the side. Nothing wrong in it. Might as well do it on the NSE than in Macau where the odds are 99:1 against you. 3:1 is not bad odds though leverage is probably more complicated than that. Personally I do gamble a little though I have a dedicated IRA account I do it in. Esp. since my investment bank gives me a bunch of free trades every year. Avoids that pesky Schedule D. Over 3 decades I have just about broken even but it is great fun. Over the last year I made quite a surprising amount but balanced by my 2008 losses. I check it everyday, the MF accounts, yawn, check maybe once in 6 months.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby vic » 09 Sep 2014 13:54

As per my layperson opinion, the +ives and -ives for stock market index are:-

+ives

Modi policies encouraging econmic activity by removing corruption tax and Mouse Singh delay
Crude oil Going down
Interest will go down if the inflation slows with Crude Going down
Yuan is slowly becoming stronger
Ukraine dispute may push money into Indian stock Market from CIS nations


-ives

Crude can again go back up
US QE may be ending


Now in this context, a most important query:-

What stocks to buy?? or not buy??

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby member_28714 » 09 Sep 2014 17:45

^^^ I've personally invested heavily in nearly all renewable energy companies. Most of these got beaten down badly while Congress slept and looted the country and were available at a pittance up until about a couple of months before the election results when it became obvious that BJP would win and Modi would make PM. I've already doubled my money on the initial investments though I have added a lot along the way as well averaging my costs higher. I still am sitting on a comfortable 50% premium.

I expect most of these to be multibaggers in the coming 2-3 years. I wont name stocks as I am not sure of forum policies on such things.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby pankajs » 11 Sep 2014 13:37

If you believe Modi will bring about a turnaround in the Indian economy and want to benefit from it but have neither the skill nor time and inclination to research opportunities, invest in the Index via ETF, etc for reasonable return. The other option could be a well diversified Mutual fund from a firm with a well established track record.

If you want to do your own stuff, perhaps it is better to focus on sectors that will benefit maximum from Modiji's agenda. If your are defensive go for the blue chips from within these sectors. If you are adventurous you may want to look at companies with maximum growth potential, usually mid-caps, within these sectors. You could also split your money between blue chips and growth oriented mid-cap companies depending on your risk tolerance.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby pankajs » 11 Sep 2014 13:43

Found this interesting .. Not very exiting but a sound defensive bet that will give you a decent return with less risk than investing in IPPs but will benefit from power sector reforms and more from Modi's 24x7 power for everyone

“Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd (PWG), a Navratna company, is India’s largest power transmission utility transmitting ~50% of power generated. The company is in a regulated business which guarantees reasonable profitability along with steady returns. PWG provides investors an opportunity to participate in the nation’s power sector reforms as the company is the indirect beneficiary and offers relatively defensive and stable growth compared to IPPs. The company has reported strong growth in capitalization in FY15 YTD at Rs85bn, more than 50% of the projects commissioned in FY14. We expect the momentum to remain strong over the next two years and estimate FY15 capitalizing at Rs202bn, 26.8% higher on a yoy basis. The company has diversified into broadband and telecom services and is also into consultancy for T&D projects. A jump in capitalization and increase in revenues from diversified business would lead to earnings CAGR of 15.7% over the period FY14‐17. With a slew of reforms being implemented for the state SEBS, any restructuring of SEBs would lead to a re‐rating for the company. We value the company at 2x FY17 P/B and recommend a BUY rating with a 2‐year price target of Rs187,” says IIFL research report.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby pankajs » 11 Sep 2014 13:55

http://www.dnaindia.com/health/report-u ... ry-2017709
US drug patent expiries to benefit Indian pharma industry
Expiry of drug patents in the US is great news for not only consumers but also the domestic pharmaceutical industry, where generics account for about 75 per cent of total sales, CARE Ratings said in its report released here today.

...
Ranbaxy, Dr Reddy's and Lupin have been the most prolific filers for Para-IVs. Indian players with a robust product portfolio, filings and necessary manufacturing infrastructure are well placed to capitalise on this forthcoming opportunity, CARE Ratings said.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby archan » 12 Sep 2014 13:37

Was thinking of buying LUPIN todin. It started the day at like 1315 and is already 1351.25. Wonder if it is still a good idea.

To close the first story, I did sell those 500 shares yesterday with a profit of about Rs. 5 each, making about Rs. 1300 post brokerage. Now I am looking to ease into some long term investing. Bought some shares of L&T today. Mighty expensive stuff!
George, it is OK to discuss companies in this thread.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby member_28714 » 12 Sep 2014 13:48

archan wrote:Was thinking of buying LUPIN todin. It started the day at like 1315 and is already 1351.25. Wonder if it is still a good idea.

To close the first story, I did sell those 500 shares yesterday with a profit of about Rs. 5 each, making about Rs. 1300 post brokerage. Now I am looking to ease into some long term investing. Bought some shares of L&T today. Mighty expensive stuff!
George, it is OK to discuss companies in this thread.


Ok, kindly do your research before you buying into any of these. I cannot emphasize this point enough. These are only for people with high risk appetite. Most day these shares trade at either upper or lower circuit so it can be a nerve wracking experience.

Solar Energy
1) Indosolar
2) Moser Baer
3) Websol
4) XL Energy

Wind Energy
1) Suzlon
2) Indowind

My time horizon for these shares are in years, not months.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby archan » 12 Sep 2014 14:56

What are the short term bullies? :p

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby member_28714 » 12 Sep 2014 15:07

archan wrote:What are the short term bullies? :p



sorry saar, I look only at very long term prospects. cant help with short or medium term.

my reasoning is simple, India is Energy Starved. We have dirty low grade lignite, no oil, little gas, hardly any uranium, a thorium cycle that will take at least 4 more decades to mature if it ever does.

Energy = Everything. You have unlimited energy, you have unlimited food, water everything. And today renewables are finally as cheap as coal.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby pankajs » 12 Sep 2014 15:07

I had bought Lupin last July end when it was trading for about 33% above its 200 day EMA and for the next 10 months it kept round about my buy price till the 200 day EMA caught up. After that there has been a steady rise and now we are a point where the price is about 33% above its 200 day EMA again. Past performance is definitely not indicative of future performance but now a days I prefer to buy near the major support levels i.e 200 day EMA.

However Lupin is a good steady company with a very strong research pipeline. If your are willing to give it 2-3 years you can certainly buy it at this level.

Lupin launched 19 new products in FY14, including generic versions of Zymaxid (antibiotic, October 2013), Trizivir (antiviral) and Cymbalta (anti depressant, December 2013) and in current fiscal, company plans to launch another 20+ products. Although Cymbalta pricing has descended largely to generic levels and Niaspan, launched in Q4 FY14, would see additional competition, we believe latter would be large enough opportunity to boost US growth in the current year. Other products like Doxycycline (anti‐infective, March 2014) and Yaz (under launch process in the oral contraceptive portfolio) would also support growth. Lupin’s pending ANDAs imply an addressable opportunity of over US$80bn of which 30 are first‐to‐file (FTF) addressing a market size of ~US$14bn; it also has 15 exclusive FTF addressing a market size of US$1.5bn.”

...
Lupin represents the best bet among large cap pharma to play the robust growth in US generics expected over the next 2‐3 years driven by new launches in FY14 and large opportunity size linked to pending ANDA approvals. Domestic formulations business with growth in high teens would easily outpace the industry supported by increasing share of chronic therapies and rise in market share. Margin profile would undergo a transformation from 23.5% in FY13 to >28% by FY17 with sustainable range seen at 28‐30% according to the management. We forecast 19% EPS cagr over FY14‐17 driven by 17% revenue cagr and ~160bps margin expansion and recommend BUY for 2‐yr target of Rs1,750,” says IIFL research report.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby pankajs » 12 Sep 2014 15:13

BTW, I do not have a price target in mind when I enter a trade just an exit strategy both on the upside and the downside. Prefer a stock with volumes > 50,000 shares a day on average (say 20 days average).

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Vamsee » 12 Sep 2014 21:49

George wrote:
archan wrote:Was thinking of buying LUPIN todin. It started the day at like 1315 and is already 1351.25. Wonder if it is still a good idea.

To close the first story, I did sell those 500 shares yesterday with a profit of about Rs. 5 each, making about Rs. 1300 post brokerage. Now I am looking to ease into some long term investing. Bought some shares of L&T today. Mighty expensive stuff!
George, it is OK to discuss companies in this thread.


Ok, kindly do your research before you buying into any of these. I cannot emphasize this point enough. These are only for people with high risk appetite. Most day these shares trade at either upper or lower circuit so it can be a nerve wracking experience.

Solar Energy
1) Indosolar
2) Moser Baer
3) Websol
4) XL Energy

Wind Energy
1) Suzlon
2) Indowind

My time horizon for these shares are in years, not months.


Moser Baer and Suzlon have destroyed 95% to 99% of investors wealth during last carnage (2008-2009) :-)

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby member_28714 » 15 Sep 2014 11:56

Vamsee wrote:
George wrote:Ok, kindly do your research before you buying into any of these. I cannot emphasize this point enough. These are only for people with high risk appetite. Most day these shares trade at either upper or lower circuit so it can be a nerve wracking experience.

Solar Energy
1) Indosolar
2) Moser Baer
3) Websol
4) XL Energy

Wind Energy
1) Suzlon
2) Indowind

My time horizon for these shares are in years, not months.


Moser Baer and Suzlon have destroyed 95% to 99% of investors wealth during last carnage (2008-2009) :-)



true, thats why it is a good time to get in. I got in when suzlon was Rs5 and when Moser was Rs 3. firms go through tough times. like i said, extremely high risk, but my research tells me renewable energy is the future.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby archan » 16 Sep 2014 14:34

What are good safe debt funds in desh? any personal experiences?

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby archan » 16 Sep 2014 14:54

Second pooch: what portfolio tracker do you use, if any? is it safe to divulge info to an entity like ET? does anyone here use their iOS/Android apps?

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby member_28714 » 16 Sep 2014 15:05

archan wrote:Second pooch: what portfolio tracker do you use, if any? is it safe to divulge info to an entity like ET? does anyone here use their iOS/Android apps?


moneycontrol. I use a factor to hide my actual quantity. And the factor is not an obvious '10' or '100'

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby LakshO » 16 Sep 2014 19:45

archan wrote:What are good safe debt funds in desh? any personal experiences?

Just a pointer for you to explore further: Value Research Online. From my personal experience, HDFC MF runs good funds (equity, debt, balanced etc). Look up Birla Sunlife, UTI MF, Reliance MFs too.

archan wrote:Second pooch: what portfolio tracker do you use, if any? is it safe to divulge info to an entity like ET? does anyone here use their iOS/Android apps?

The above URL lets you track Indian MFs and Indian stocks; you have to create a portfolio for each. User is allowed to create 5 portfolios for each login ID.

I prefer to invest in an individual fund that was around for 10+ years, have INR1000+ crore invested currently and have good returns (12-15%) for last 5 years. I enter actual data to track my investments; I don't mask my numbers. The only downside to this site is it is updated only once a day. Yahoo Finance provides streaming (delayed by 10-20 mins), ET portfolio updates stock prices every few minutes (may be 5 mins).

Just my 2 paise!
Last edited by LakshO on 16 Sep 2014 19:52, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Theo_Fidel » 16 Sep 2014 19:48

I know ICICI has a relatively good portfolio tracker. But all your portfolio has to be with them. With e-mailed statements everyday if you so wish.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Vamsee » 16 Sep 2014 20:41

archan wrote:Second pooch: what portfolio tracker do you use, if any? is it safe to divulge info to an entity like ET? does anyone here use their iOS/Android apps?


moneycontrol.com is good and I use it. Why do you ask if it is "safe"? It is not a demat. So no one can do any transaction in it.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby archan » 17 Sep 2014 09:49

Safe as in in terms of personal data, banking details (doubt if they ask for that), if they take your PAN number or not, etc. I have been looking at moneycontrol and ET from time to time to expand my knowledge but not I think I need something to keep track of my online indulgences.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby chilarai » 17 Sep 2014 13:37

you can use jstock ( http://sourceforge.net/projects/jstock/ ) to maintain your own portfolio . if i remmeber correctly it can sync and get data from major markets. It can take backups and put into google drive if you want. At least thats how it worked some 2-3 years back.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Picklu » 17 Sep 2014 20:29

bhat tracking portfolio shortfolio ji? buy sensex stocks in UPA regime and forget about them in NDA regime. Buy gold(ETF) and invest in VPF during NDA regime and forget about them in UPA regime. bhat more tracking shacking do you want? If you have more time in your hand, run a marathon ji.

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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby SaraLax » 17 Sep 2014 22:31

pankajs wrote:I had bought Lupin last July end when it was trading for about 33% above its 200 day EMA and for the next 10 months it kept round about my buy price till the 200 day EMA caught up. After that there has been a steady rise and now we are a point where the price is about 33% above its 200 day EMA again. Past performance is definitely not indicative of future performance but now a days I prefer to buy near the major support levels i.e 200 day EMA.

However Lupin is a good steady company with a very strong research pipeline. If your are willing to give it 2-3 years you can certainly buy it at this level.

Lupin launched 19 new products in FY14, including generic versions of Zymaxid (antibiotic, October 2013), Trizivir (antiviral) and Cymbalta (anti depressant, December 2013) and in current fiscal, company plans to launch another 20+ products. Although Cymbalta pricing has descended largely to generic levels and Niaspan, launched in Q4 FY14, would see additional competition, we believe latter would be large enough opportunity to boost US growth in the current year. Other products like Doxycycline (anti‐infective, March 2014) and Yaz (under launch process in the oral contraceptive portfolio) would also support growth. Lupin’s pending ANDAs imply an addressable opportunity of over US$80bn of which 30 are first‐to‐file (FTF) addressing a market size of ~US$14bn; it also has 15 exclusive FTF addressing a market size of US$1.5bn.”

...
Lupin represents the best bet among large cap pharma to play the robust growth in US generics expected over the next 2‐3 years driven by new launches in FY14 and large opportunity size linked to pending ANDA approvals. Domestic formulations business with growth in high teens would easily outpace the industry supported by increasing share of chronic therapies and rise in market share. Margin profile would undergo a transformation from 23.5% in FY13 to >28% by FY17 with sustainable range seen at 28‐30% according to the management. We forecast 19% EPS cagr over FY14‐17 driven by 17% revenue cagr and ~160bps margin expansion and recommend BUY for 2‐yr target of Rs1,750,” says IIFL research report.


I am a small level retail investor who likes to buy & hold shares for years. Let me narrate my story of running after LUPIN .... the Urvashi of Indian Pharma companies ... Its a great stock in a very strong sector. Pharma is almost an evergreen sector as long as these companies can keep properly managing their FDA certifications & the quality of their product supply..... people won't stop taking medicines even during worst of recessions. But still need to be cautious ... there have been companies like Dr.Reddy Labs who suffered due to excessive purchases of foreign companies and others like Wockhardt who have suffered bigger problems when they were waiting to graduate to higher levels of performances. As is the case with Pharma - almost same sentiments apply for everyday FMCG product selling India listed companies .... just look at Nestle, Colgate, Marico, Britannia, Godrej Consumer Products Ltd, Jyothy Labs, GSK consumer, P&G (or is it Reckitt Benckiser ?) & a few others like Titan Ind, Asian Paints, Page Industries, TTK Prestige - all High PE Indian stocks since a long time and their stock prices never ever fall down & have always held strong. Alternatively - One can do a SIP in pure Pharma & FMCG sector type focussed MFs too ... refer ICICI Prudential & SBI MF for such schemes. I absolutely like Pharma & FMCG companies.

I have always had my eyes on LUPIN since 2008-2009 frame but at that time i was very naive in my stock market techniques. I was also very fearful of buying any shares when they were all plummeting to newer lows. Then all of a sudden UPA2 won 2009 LS elections with greater majority and in the space of a week all strong company shares like LUPIN and etc - ran up to opposite extreme and i was feeling very cheated ... I lacked conviction .... my fear of further fall in the stock markets prevented me from buying some of them like ICICI, SBI, L&T, LUPIN, Titan, Tata Chem, Voltas, Hindalco and etc at cheap to very cheap prices (relative to now) and the 2009 election results caused the very opposite (i.e sudden shooting-up) on most shares that i was looking at. It was quite a ride for these shares and i was very disappointed looking at how things went down and then spiked up rapidly leaving retail investors like me hugely disappointed. But it was all a good lesson.

LUPIN was always a high PE stock and gave good dividends. In 2010-2011 - LUPIN did a 1:5 stock split and its price came to ~ 360 as a result (from the pre-split price of ~ 1400 odd rupees). I finally made up my mind to start buying LUPIN at any cost. Then over a period of almost 15 months - i made very small purchases of 5 - 10 shares at odd intervals whenever LUPIN used to come down. The beauty was people used to buy it quickly when it started to fall down and it would soon be back at a higher price. One had to track it very keenly day in & day out. It was thoroughly frustrating (what with the greed to make money but still not loose money). I accumulated 180 shares in a very painfully slow manner (also because i was only putting some excess savings from my salary into the stock market) and then stopped at that point due to frustration. Maybe i should have bought more.... but since then it has now become a 3 bagger for me. I know of friends who have clocked a 10 bagger with this stock.

I was buying Orchid Chemicals at this time too but soon i dumped it with some loss ...after finding that whatever they did they couldn't simply overcome their huge pending debt. I made some small profit in another pretty small pharma exporting company "Bliss GVS pharma" but then it was a very illiquid stock. I made big losses in Careerpoint India ... an education & training company ... run by IIT guys ... where Franklin Templeton & one of Infosys's founder guys have invested a good amount of money. I also made small losses in Indraprastha Hospitals (Delhi based Hospital, an Apollo Hospital JV).

Like with LUPIN - I was also following the 'accumulate in small quantities' technique with Jyothy Labs ... it was also ruling at a high price (IIRC - debuted at 600 INR odd during a heavily subscribed IPO) for a good amount of time. It also did a 1:5 stock split and a bit latter they bravely bought the badly performing Indian subsidary of German FMCG Henkel. Stock markets bet that the small kid Jyothy will stumble trying to gobble the perennially loss making Henkel India whose 'Mr.White', 'Henko', 'Fa', 'Margo' products were not competitive at all in front of behemoth HLL's Rin, Surf, Axe & etc and hence Jyothy's price didn't rise much after this event. But many MFs continued to stay invested in Jyothy Labs and a few PE investors later even came in and stock was not moving during that period. The key detail was that ... Jyothy Labs gave the option to Henkel to sell their Indian subsidary to Jyothy for a certain price and in turn Henkel would also get the right to purchase a 26% stake in Jyothy Labs at a future time. Now Jyothy has turned around Henkel & its products and they are generating profits. The market now senses that Henkel will exercise the option to buy 26% stake in Jyothy Labs but Jyothy Labs will decide the price and people feel it will be a good premium and hence stock is moving up. More MFs are buying into it now. I bought up as much as i could in 2010-2011 stage. In the interim period - it even was a loss making proposition for me but i stayed put & now it has turned into a 3 bagger for me.

My other bet was Coromandel International (a mostly fertilizer, pesticides & agro-support services company) and even though i am not in loss ... my profits in this one are small compared to Jyothy or LUPIN. I am staying invested & am hopeful that they will also go up eventually.

One more bet that i have made is with Repco Housing. Actually I was always coveting GRUH housing ... a rural housing finance company operating in financing houses at a certain price range ... But as usual it is a very pricey stock and i never had the conviction to purchase it ... Results were always strong and it is a subsidary of HDFC !!. But instead i have bought into Repco Housing (its owned sort of by the Indian Home ministry) ... its profile is very similar to Gruh but is smaller, growing & operates in the South mostly (while Gruh is not comparitively strong in South) and hence i bought it. World Bank's IFC invested in it, former World Bank chairman run PE invested in it and global PE guys like Carlyle have a big stake in Repco Housing. I have stopped looking further at Gruh and hope Repco will give the a similar if not a smaller ride like what Gruh has given.

The current stock that i am accumulating is ... VA-TECH WABAG. Again - it is a very pricey stock ... keeps running up and up .. as i try to catch it. But it is in a very promising field. The management appears very professional and their technology is good. With the small bonus that i have got - i hope to buy soon & reach the triple digit mark.

All the above companies have great investor friendly management and hope it will be the same in future too.

So do go for LUPIN ... but IMO don't expect a big-number multi-bagger here - it will be a steadily gaining stock. If it falls in a substantial ( maybe 5 - 10%) way - accumulate it at higher numbers for sure.

BTW - i use Kotak Securities (Online) facility for handling share investments ... a bit costly but is safe, always available & good for me until now. I track my shares via portfolios created at Google Finance.

Vamsee
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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Vamsee » 17 Sep 2014 23:01

archan wrote:Safe as in in terms of personal data, banking details (doubt if they ask for that), if they take your PAN number or not, etc. I have been looking at moneycontrol and ET from time to time to expand my knowledge but not I think I need something to keep track of my online indulgences.


No. moneycontrol is not linked to your actual accounts (atleast I did not link any)
You need to manually add your portfolio stock details into it. Once they are added, it will give real time price & other info on those.

--Vamsee

LakshO
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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby LakshO » 18 Sep 2014 05:56

SaraLax wrote:So do go for LUPIN ... but IMO don't expect a big-number multi-bagger here - it will be a steadily gaining stock. If it falls in a substantial ( maybe 5 - 10%) way - accumulate it at higher numbers for sure.

SaraLaxji, thanks for the detailed writeup on Lupin. Currently, I hold shares of Dr Reddy Labs and Cadila (in small amounts). I invested in these firms for their generics lineup. I have Biocon on my watch list; now, I will add Lupin. How about Cipla?

BTW, this thread is informative in discovering hidden gems 8)

archan
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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby archan » 18 Sep 2014 06:12

Great insights Saralaxji. Thanks for taking the time to write it all up. I also got advice on WABAG but chickened out after looking at the cost.

sunilUpa
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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby sunilUpa » 18 Sep 2014 07:01

Cipla and Lupin are looking for buyers..not successful so far. Dr.Redyy is solid in terms of compliance. Lotos of rumors about Sun pharma Halol plant in trouble with FDA.

pankajs
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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby pankajs » 18 Sep 2014 16:22

Given India's massive lack of Infrastructure and Modi's focus on Infra development, major beneficiaries are going to be the Cement and the Steel sector. Besides housing, industrialization and consumer durables will all need massive amounts of Steel. The per capita Steel consumption is very low and will rise 4 to 5 folds in the next 15 years. A lot of money can be made in these sectors if you take a long term view.

There are challenges of course.
1. Coal mines issue.
2. Iron-ore mine issues.
3. Dumping of steel by the Chinese.

Tata Steel remains the pick from amongst the major steel makers in India despite the Corus fiasco.

Suraj
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Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Suraj » 18 Sep 2014 22:23

Steel is a notoriously cyclical business. I would recommend core sector utilities and transmission cos above steel.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian investments thread

Postby Theo_Fidel » 18 Sep 2014 22:36

I'm not sure about the cement sector. Competition is ferocious, entry barriers are low to non-existent and the transport problem means that exports are out. With ~ 300 million tonnes of production we are already about 5 times USA cement production ~ 70 million tonnes. I don't see us doing the China insanity so future growth will be by value addition and improving margins which are not conducive to Alpha. JMT.


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