PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
panduranghari
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3781
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby panduranghari » 21 Oct 2015 14:53

hanumadu wrote:Why is the world giving a free pass to Chinese steel? Why is India not imposing tariff against Chinese steel? Can you imagine the Chinese not being able to sell half of their steel production? Would be fun to watch.


WTO forbids that. When China was admitted to WTO, they agreed to tariffs. Those tariffs were exorbitant compared to what another manufacturer in another country pays. For eg. why was Tata steel still running shop in UK? The UK tariffs for steel are lower which made manufacturing and selling profitable. The profits have reduced and hence they are now shutting shop. Its easy to blame Chinese but the reality is the labour costs in UK are very high compared to elsewhere.

India could increase taxation if it chooses but it will be against the WTO treaties and we will be taken to a tribunal for doing so. I feel one way out of it may be to increase the VAT (GST) on imports.

member_29172
BRFite
Posts: 375
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby member_29172 » 21 Oct 2015 18:35

Aren't anti dumping laws against wto as well? what if it's proven that the junk that reaches our shores is harmful to our citizens? And who follows wto rules anyways? most of these organisations are toothless and servile to westerners. It's a two edge sword it seems.


hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4911
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby hanumadu » 21 Oct 2015 19:23

Singha wrote:how do the developers get the real money to buy the land though? steel, cement, labour, machinery also cost real money.

eventually no matter how many internal cash flow circles are drawn, there is one external huge inflow of money to feed these internal circles(may not be so efficient circles).

and that is their huge trade surplus. so first source node of all this money would be businessmen who own the factories, with the govt also having a share in some.

this is money the world pays china in exchange for a vast range of manufactured goods. and this export surplus money is what adds hugely to the GDP every year.

other than niche products like jet and marine engines, china is the #1 to #2 manufacturer of all goods in the world now - from shoes to construction cranes and ships.


Most logical explanation. The world is subsidizing the chinese economy. Here is the chinese balance of trade chart.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/balance-of-trade

Image

Ten years ago it was about 5B per month. Now it is trending around 60B per month. How are they managing to do it?
It was around 40B per month in 2008 but after the crisis, it fell down to about half of that. Since 2014 it began to climb up rapidly again and is now around 60B per month. That's more than half a trillion per year. How are they managing to do it when the rest of the world is reeling with crisis after crisis? Look at India's.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/balance-of-trade

Image

Depressing.

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4911
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby hanumadu » 21 Oct 2015 19:46

panduranghari wrote:
hanumadu wrote:Why is the world giving a free pass to Chinese steel? Why is India not imposing tariff against Chinese steel? Can you imagine the Chinese not being able to sell half of their steel production? Would be fun to watch.


WTO forbids that. When China was admitted to WTO, they agreed to tariffs. Those tariffs were exorbitant compared to what another manufacturer in another country pays. For eg. why was Tata steel still running shop in UK? The UK tariffs for steel are lower which made manufacturing and selling profitable. The profits have reduced and hence they are now shutting shop. Its easy to blame Chinese but the reality is the labour costs in UK are very high compared to elsewhere.

India could increase taxation if it chooses but it will be against the WTO treaties and we will be taken to a tribunal for doing so. I feel one way out of it may be to increase the VAT (GST) on imports.


https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/adp_e/adp_e.htm
Anti-dumping

If a company exports a product at a price lower than the price it normally charges on its own home market, it is said to be “dumping” the product. The WTO Agreement does not regulate the actions of companies engaged in "dumping". Its focus is on how governments can or cannot react to dumping — it disciplines anti-dumping actions, and it is often called the “Anti-dumping Agreement”.


So, by this definition India cannot take any action if they are selling steel in the domestic market at the same price or lower than the export price. Now, how are they selling steel at such a low price when Indian steel plants are supposedly more advanced than the chinese plants. Indian labour too is cheaper than the chinese labour.

I think AD (anti dumping) laws can also be applied in case of predatory pricing. That is selling at below its fair market price or below cost of production. Do the importing countries do an assessment of the true cost of production in china? Is India doing it? Importing steel from china when Indian's producers are languishing looks so inept on the govt.

Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Theo_Fidel » 21 Oct 2015 20:14

One caveat. India's balance of trade still does not include invisibles, meaning the entire IT sector for instance.... ..last checked that was ~$60 Billion annually, or 3% of GDP. When that is added in India is positive. Remittance and FDI should also be considered, on both India is substantially positive. though by only $50 Billion +/- range. Nothing like China's $600 Billion positive...
-----------------------

No Yum is in bed with a monster. Party bosses will crush it like the insect it has reduced itself too when ever they feel like....

chola wrote:It is like saying you wished you never made that $10 million last year so you don't have to deal the disappointment of "only" making $9 million this year. Pure stupidity.
YUM still makes more than 50% of its revenue in China even with the current growth issues. Far bigger than even its US home market.

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4911
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby hanumadu » 21 Oct 2015 20:36

I am aware software exports are not counted. Does it include jewelry and gems exports? Are there any other items that are excluded from balance of trade? India has to invest in high technology manufacturing to increase exports and all low tech goods must be sourced domestically.

Software exports are expected to touch 110B this year. What is heartening is domestic software industry is expected to be 55B reducing dependence of exports.

India alone is responsible for 1/7 of the chinese positive balance of trade.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 14353
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Suraj » 21 Oct 2015 21:07

All typically reported monthly trade data is merchandise trade only. Invisibles trade data is collected separately by the central banks because there's no physical transfer of goods and no involvement of a governmental trade agency. Yes we generate a substantial services export surplus, but the overall CAD is still chronically negative except for blips. To look at the comprehensive figure, track the current account surplus or deficit. China has been running a long current account surplus. We've been running a chronic deficit.

China
Image
India
Image

A persistent deficit in turn erodes the value of the currency. A mercantilist approach on our part is required to fix it.

Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Theo_Fidel » 21 Oct 2015 21:08

Here is the full chart for India. 3% GDP positive this year.... ...I suspect the negative chart is a FUD that is peddled by international sources. RBI of course does not help...

Image
http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 485_1.html

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2015 21:10

yum type brands do not have any defensible IP that cannot be replicated. once the novelty of 'western' wears off , any number of local players in any country can outcompete them. mcdonalds or kfc does not have any special farms or equipment in their kitchen.

I would agree things like medicines, automobiles, aeroplanes, semiconductor are defensible products which are hard to just copy. thats why no analogue of mediatek or qualcomm in china yet despite china making perhaps 90% of the worlds phones.
and they have been unable to find a national champion to take on Intel despite many ongoing attempts.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 14353
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Suraj » 21 Oct 2015 21:10

Net BOP is Current + Capital account. Add up China's current account surplus with their capital account surplus, and their numbers will be substantially higher.

panduranghari
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3781
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby panduranghari » 21 Oct 2015 21:15

I would agree anti-dumping laws could be used. But how will that work? The onus will be on us to prove that the product is being dumped.

Another issue is the implementation. I like the concept of Swadeshi. Or the ISI mark or Agmark. The quality standards mark give a certain guarantee that the product is good. People could be swayed by this. After all the consumer is the king.

We have the know how to implement quality standards but we haven't got the political will to make that happen. Until now. May be 'Made in India' should have quality element to it?

Theo_Fidel

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Theo_Fidel » 21 Oct 2015 21:20

I think India can make steel cheaper than China.
TATA India makes the cheapest steel in the world and so does JSW.... .. I believe kalyani is one step behind...

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 14353
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Suraj » 21 Oct 2015 21:36

Quality standards based non-tariff barriers are a common approach used by US, EU and PRC to block imports. Back during the GATT days when India primarily depended on textile exports, there was a convenient 'scandal' about 'ZOMG! dupattas made of known flammable material catch fire!' . Likewise, EU imposes their own 'failed quality standards' tariffs. PRC has wisened up and now does the same. About time we did too. We've been pussyfooting about a playing by other peoples' rules too much.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2015 22:23

In China, strong-arm tour guides are forcing people to shop

http://flip.it/E3do1

Literal confiscation of earnings

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Singha » 21 Oct 2015 22:24

Similar high pressure scam runs in pattaya also after speedboat ride

member_20292
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2059
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby member_20292 » 22 Oct 2015 16:42

mahadevbhu wrote:And of course, you have the Make in India programme. World.

Take a look at our shiny new Chinese built infrastructure.

Come build in India and export using our shiny Chinese built roads and ports.

The string of pearls should be inside India , on the coast. Forget Hambantota. Lets get the Chini to build us ports and roads and lend us money to do that as well.

(we promise to return it , eventually!)



And, as if on cue, Japan decides to lend us money on 1% for a HSR from Mumbai to Ahmedabad

great.

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/tlAS21 ... ullet.html

Love you Nippon. Thanks for the money and the HSR.

Hope that the Chinese are following the Japanese. The Indian infrastructure sector offers a great opportunity to the Chinese infra companies to build us out on cheap money which the Indian people will almost never have to pay back to China. This will be stimulus money for the sputtering economy of China that the PBC prints and gives to Chinese Banks which lend to Chinese companies AS WELL as the Indian govt.

How do we make this easier and possible?
Easy visas for Chinese workers
Yuan debt for us. No need for Dollars.

The chinese companies will build our roads and also set up sweatshops here.

Awesome!

Foxconn has already announced a big investment for the Indian market, so has Xiaomi.

Now , to hope that the govt works out better infra financing mechanisms so that the world can participate in building India out.
Last edited by member_20292 on 22 Oct 2015 22:24, edited 2 times in total.

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4911
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby hanumadu » 22 Oct 2015 17:52

foxconn is not chinese.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 14353
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Suraj » 24 Oct 2015 23:25

China's companies are a snake eating its own tail
Profits are falling, in part because of the costs of paying back debt. They are responding by adding more debt, making the matter worse.

In the first nine months of 2015 profits fell 8.2% across the board, according to state media organisation Xinhua. The slowdown accelerated in September, according to the report.

That, when coupled with their hefty debt load, has everyone from Wall Street analysts to the International Monetary Fund worried.

"This situation makes servicing debt obligations more difficult. In particular, the interest coverage ratio has fallen in SOEs, which have contributed to the bulk of the rise in credit," wrote the IMF in a report last month.

Unfortunately, the IMF also points out, without that debt some of these companies wouldn't be able to function.

"At the same time, deleveraging by firms could weigh on growth, while mounting corporate defaults would have adverse effects on bank balance sheets and credit availability, and thereby further weaken growth."

member_29172
BRFite
Posts: 375
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby member_29172 » 25 Oct 2015 09:41

China premier says 7 percent growth goal never set in stone


China has never said the economy absolutely must grow seven percent this year, Premier Li Keqiang said in comments reported by the government late on Saturday, adding that he had faith in the country's ability to overcome its economic difficulties.

China's economy in the July-to-September quarter grew 6.9 percent from a year earlier, data showed last week, dipping below 7 percent for the first time since the global financial crisis.

Speaking at the Central Party School, which trains rising officials, Li said that China's economic achievements had been not easy to come by and that the difficulties ahead should not be underestimated.

Li's report to the annual meeting of parliament set this year's GDP growth target at about seven percent.

"We have never said that we should defend to the death any goal, but that the economy should operate within a reasonable range," the central government paraphrased Li as saying in a statement released on its website.

China's economic growth has not been bad over the last year considering the problems in the global economy, he added.

There are reasons for optimism going forward, such as rising employment, more spending on tourism and a fast growing service sector, Li said.

"The hard work of people up and down the country and the enormous potential of China's economy gives us more confidence that we can overcome the various difficulties," he added.

China's central bank cut interest rates on Friday for the sixth time in less than a year, and it again lowered the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves in a bid to jump start growth in its stuttering economy.



http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/ ... 2K20151025

amit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4325
Joined: 30 Aug 2007 18:28
Location: The Restaurant at the End of the Universe

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby amit » 26 Oct 2015 04:42

Some reading material for China bulls

Link

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17070
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby NRao » 26 Oct 2015 05:11

^^^^^

The proverbial tip of the ice berg.

IF China get innovators to migrate to China and the GoC becomes FAR more liberal, all this go down hill. no matter how much they twiddle with things like interest rates and the like. Their economy has come full cycle, hit all cylinders, etc and will run out of steam soon.

ashi
BRFite
Posts: 456
Joined: 19 Feb 2009 13:30

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby ashi » 26 Oct 2015 06:33

amit wrote:Some reading material for China bulls

Link


easy answer: Alibaba and Taobao are killing them. Just like in US, most of the malls are struggling or closing.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 14353
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Suraj » 26 Oct 2015 07:12

Two-Child Policy Is Too Little, Too Late
When Chinese leaders convene this week for a four-day meeting on the future of the country’s economy, the biggest news might have to do with babies. According to reports in Chinese media, the government may be ready to relax the notorious “one-child” policy, in existence since the late 1970s, and allow Chinese parents to have two kids.

This might seem like a rare victory for human rights in a country where reproductive freedoms have long been restricted, and it is. But the government has a more practical outcome in mind. China’s population of working-age adults started shrinking in 2012, and by 2050 the country will be home to fewer than 1.6 workers for every retiree, according to a 2013 report from the Paulson Institute. That’s comparable to aging, slow-growth countries like Japan and Singapore. In response, the regime is hoping to spark a baby boom.

Unfortunately, by this point, even a two-child policy may be too little, too late. Most Chinese outside the big cities can already have two, and sometimes more, children. Meanwhile, a recent, limited opening in several cities failed to turn up many urban couples interested in having a second child.

The reasons aren’t unique to China: As societies become wealthier and concentrate in cities, couples choose to have fewer kids. A peer-reviewed study from 2012 found that between 2000 and 2005, urbanization accounted for a net decline in fertility in all but three of China’s provinces. The government could try enforcing maternity-leave policies better and providing more generous childcare subsidies. But such policies haven’t really succeeded in Singapore or Japan, and there’s little reason to think that they’d work any better in China.

More drastic solutions are needed. Step one would be to scrap population-control policies altogether. Though total fertility in China is in long-term decline, lifting the cap on births entirely might at least encourage rural parents to produce more kids. What China really needs to do, though, is the same thing Japan’s struggled with for so long: import labor.

If bringing immigrants into the world’s most populous country sounds crazy, it’s not. China is already home to large immigrant communities, including several hundred thousand Africans (mostly traders) in Guangzhou, approximately 30,000 to 40,000 Arab traders in the trading hub of Yiwu, and hundreds of thousands of Americans, Japanese, and Europeans -- many of whom work illegally as professionals and creatives -- across the country.

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4911
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby hanumadu » 26 Oct 2015 07:13

^^^US malls are older one before the e-commerce revolution and US is a mature economy. China is a developing economy. Why are you still building malls when they are not profitable? Why are the clothe stores not doing well? Who buys clothes online? You can never be sure of the size, fit, looks or heck, even the color.

ashi
BRFite
Posts: 456
Joined: 19 Feb 2009 13:30

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby ashi » 26 Oct 2015 07:30

hanumadu wrote:^^^US malls are older one before the e-commerce revolution and US is a mature economy. China is a developing economy. Why are you still building malls when they are not profitable? Why are the clothe stores not doing well? Who buys clothes online? You can never be sure of the size, fit, looks or heck, even the color.


You have no idea the volume of sales Taobao and Alibaba generated

Alibaba’s ‘Singles Day’ sales top $9 billion, bigger than Black Friday

Even people live in western countries learn to use Taobao to directly shop clothes from China.


Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 14353
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Suraj » 26 Oct 2015 07:56

ashi wrote:
hanumadu wrote:^^^US malls are older one before the e-commerce revolution and US is a mature economy. China is a developing economy. Why are you still building malls when they are not profitable? Why are the clothe stores not doing well? Who buys clothes online? You can never be sure of the size, fit, looks or heck, even the color.

You have no idea the volume of sales Taobao and Alibaba generated
Alibaba’s ‘Singles Day’ sales top $9 billion, bigger than Black Friday
Even people live in western countries learn to use Taobao to directly shop clothes from China.

Your response does not answer the question.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Singha » 26 Oct 2015 09:34

infact the success of ecommerce in china indicates mega malls of unsustainable size might struggle even more in future. malls can only serve a certain radius be it 50km or 100km. ecommerce can serve the whole country from a dozen warehouses in low cost locations but near highways/airports/railways for logistics.

it is different in areas with high footfalls like business hubs or touristy spots which would still attract people.

amit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4325
Joined: 30 Aug 2007 18:28
Location: The Restaurant at the End of the Universe

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby amit » 26 Oct 2015 10:24

ashi wrote:
amit wrote:Some reading material for China bulls

Link


easy answer: Alibaba and Taobao are killing them. Just like in US, most of the malls are struggling or closing.


Ashi,

I suggest you stop trying to slip in FUD here. As other 50 centers have found out, it doesn't work on BRF.

Look at the China numbers in this chart

Image

The reality is that ecommerce is still a fraction of total retail sales in ALL countries in the world and China is no exception. So if malls are not seeing footfalls in China it means folks aren't buying which in turn means that there's economic uncertainty.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23387
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 26 Oct 2015 10:51

China's Leaders Shift From Short-Term Stimulus to Five-Year Plan

Defensive stimulus needed to ensure structural reforms
Excess capacity may undercut measures to prop up growth

ashi
BRFite
Posts: 456
Joined: 19 Feb 2009 13:30

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby ashi » 26 Oct 2015 12:36

amit wrote:Ashi,

I suggest you stop trying to slip in FUD here. As other 50 centers have found out, it doesn't work on BRF.

Look at the China numbers in this chart

Image

The reality is that ecommerce is still a fraction of total retail sales in ALL countries in the world and China is no exception. So if malls are not seeing footfalls in China it means folks aren't buying which in turn means that there's economic uncertainty.


LoL, people who say things you don't want to hear are 50centers.

The chart you provided doing you a dis-service. It shows China has the second highest e-commerce percentage in the world. US is way down in 8th spot. There are no shortages of articles in the internet telling how struggling the malls are in US.

The Shopping-Mall Crisis Is Getting More Ominous

More than two dozen malls have shut down in the last four years and another 60 malls are on the brink of death, The New York Times reports, citing Green Street Advisors, a real-estate and real estate investments trust analytics firm.

The firm predicted last year that about 15% of US malls would fail or be converted into nonretail space within the next 10 years. That was an increase from two years earlier, when the firm said that 10% of malls would fail or be converted.

ashi
BRFite
Posts: 456
Joined: 19 Feb 2009 13:30

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby ashi » 26 Oct 2015 12:42

Suraj wrote:Your response does not answer the question.


Alibaba's 9B sales in one days, does it answer the question of "who" buys clothes online? The video also kinda answers it.

The other question why still building malls, well, there is always people think they can do better than the previous guys who failed, or other reason that I don't know.

amit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4325
Joined: 30 Aug 2007 18:28
Location: The Restaurant at the End of the Universe

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby amit » 26 Oct 2015 12:54

ashi wrote:LoL, people who say things you don't want to hear are 50centers.

The chart you provided doing you a dis-service. It shows China has the second highest e-commerce percentage in the world. US is way down in 8th spot. There are no shortages of articles in the internet telling how struggling the malls are in US.


Aha, trying to do a bit of what we call downhill skiing are you?

You wrote:

easy answer: Alibaba and Taobao are killing them. Just like in US, most of the malls are struggling or closing.


The assertion being the the malls in China are doing badly and closing because Alibaba and Taobao are killing them.

And when it's pointed out that the total e-commerce $ value in China was just 8.3 per cent in 2013 and projected to be just 12 per cent in 2015, you turn that around with a link to show, see how US malls are doing bad as well! :rotfl: :rotfl:

Ok let me assert this and you can earn your 50 cents by pulling out links to "contradict" that. Both Chinese and US malls are doing badly because both their economies are performing lously. Heck even piddly UK is beating your great e-commerce giants by cornering a great part of the total retail spend! What a loss of face Ashi!

On the other hand, I need to consider another point. As long as China is apparently doing better than the US, then no loss of face, even if a two bit economy such as the UK does better.

You folks look at the US with the same prism with which Pakistan looks at India. No wonder the taller than mountains, deeper than oceans, sweeter than honey relationship!

:D

ashi
BRFite
Posts: 456
Joined: 19 Feb 2009 13:30

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby ashi » 26 Oct 2015 13:00

amit wrote:
The reality is that ecommerce is still a fraction of total retail sales in ALL countries in the world and China is no exception. So if malls are not seeing footfalls in China it means folks aren't buying which in turn means that there's economic uncertainty.


The recent data shows consuming is picking up even though in general the economy is not growing fast.

No one believes China's growth, but...

More importantly, there are some decent signs that Chinese consumers are still spending. Retail and property sales have been ticking up. That helps offset the manufacturing slowdown.


Not all the malls are killed by e-commerce, but consumer changing their buying habit sure adds to them.

amit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4325
Joined: 30 Aug 2007 18:28
Location: The Restaurant at the End of the Universe

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby amit » 26 Oct 2015 13:04

ashi wrote:Alibaba's 9B sales in one days, does it answer the question of "who" buys clothes online? The video also kinda answers it.


Alibaba's $9billion sales is a function of 1.3 billion people. When you have so many people such numbers look massive but they need to be looked in the context. Also there's no data on how many billions were spent on Singles day in traditional brick and motar stores. Unless you have that, you can't support your original assertion that Alibaba and its clones are killing traditional malls.

Look Alibaba is an amazing success story. Let that success stand on its merits and don't try to use to cover the other deficiencies in the Chinese system. That would lead to inquiring minds thinking that China is a one trick pony. You wouldn't want that would you?

ashi
BRFite
Posts: 456
Joined: 19 Feb 2009 13:30

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby ashi » 26 Oct 2015 13:08

amit wrote:
ashi wrote:Alibaba's 9B sales in one days, does it answer the question of "who" buys clothes online? The video also kinda answers it.


Alibaba's $9billion sales is a function of 1.3 billion people. When you have so many people such numbers look massive but they need to be looked in the context. Also there's no data on how many billions were spent on Singles day in traditional brick and motar stores. Unless you have that, you can't support your original assertion that Alibaba and its clones are killing traditional malls.

Look Alibaba is an amazing success story. Let that success stand on its merits and don't try to use to cover the other deficiencies in the Chinese system. That would lead to inquiring minds thinking that China is a one trick pony. You wouldn't want that would you?


I honestly don't think we are going anywhere ... I will stop here.

amit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4325
Joined: 30 Aug 2007 18:28
Location: The Restaurant at the End of the Universe

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby amit » 26 Oct 2015 13:09

ashi wrote:Not all the malls are killed by e-commerce, but consumer changing their buying habit sure adds to them.


You are twisting yourself into knots. Don't do that my friend.

When I point out that Chinese e-commerce accounts for just 8.3 per cent of total retail sales in 2013 and is projected to account for 12 per cent this year, you jump up and say, "See we may be bad but the US is in a worse position!"

And when pointed out that even the UK is doing better in e-commerce than China despite the hype about Alibaba, you go back to the earlier assertion that e-commerce is killion some malls?

Why this state of denial regarding China's current economic woes? Even your CCP leadership is admitting to it?

Is this something to do with your revenue model, with regards to time spent on BRF and...

amit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4325
Joined: 30 Aug 2007 18:28
Location: The Restaurant at the End of the Universe

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby amit » 26 Oct 2015 13:12

ashi wrote:I honestly don't think we are going anywhere ... I will stop here.


Good better sense prevails. Please stick around and post about stuff happening in China. Believe it or not there is genuine interest in that country and a considerable degree of admiration on it's achievements. And all this on a forum on which there is a lot of jingoism with regard to India.

What to do, Indians are like that onlee... the bane of free thinkers, not constrained by supervisors.

ashi
BRFite
Posts: 456
Joined: 19 Feb 2009 13:30

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby ashi » 26 Oct 2015 13:15

amit wrote:
ashi wrote:Not all the malls are killed by e-commerce, but consumer changing their buying habit sure adds to them.


You are twisting yourself into knots. Don't do that my friend.

When I point out that Chinese e-commerce accounts for just 8.3 per cent of total retail sales in 2013 and is projected to account for 12 per cent this year, you jump up and say, "See we may be bad but the US is in a worse position!"

And when pointed out that even the UK is doing better in e-commerce than China despite the hype about Alibaba, you go back to the earlier assertion that e-commerce is killion some malls?

Why this state of denial regarding China's current economic woes? Even your CCP leadership is admitting to it?

Is this something to do with your revenue model, with regards to time spent on BRF and...


You need some logic training. Even the word you quote me "See we may be bad but the US is in a worse position!". Show me where I say it I will sent you a $1000 check. ^_^ I am talking about e-commerce and malls, and you can change the topic to how China stack it up to US. LOL ... OK, I will really stop here.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 14353
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Suraj » 26 Oct 2015 21:45

ashi wrote:
Suraj wrote:Your response does not answer the question.

Alibaba's 9B sales in one days, does it answer the question of "who" buys clothes online? The video also kinda answers it.

No, that's not the question.
ashi wrote:The other question why still building malls, well, there is always people think they can do better than the previous guys who failed, or other reason that I don't know.

THIS was the question. You didn't answer it because you admittedly don't know. Thanks.


Return to “Technology & Economic Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests