PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

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kit
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby kit » 23 Jan 2020 23:17

Indeed , interesting that the chinese scientists were able to sequence the genetic map of the virus "rapidly" as the NYT says !!

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby vimal » 25 Jan 2020 11:56

OT here but the tone of articles w.r.t China is still repectful. Had Corona Virus been Indian there would be Hindu nationalism, Cow, Caste and Curry all over it. Also, the need to provide for poor instead of mangalyaan.


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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby tandav » 25 Jan 2020 15:28

vimal wrote:OT here but the tone of articles w.r.t China is still repectful. Had Corona Virus been Indian there would be Hindu nationalism, Cow, Caste and Curry all over it. Also, the need to provide for poor instead of mangalyaan.


The reason is that the visuals coming of out China shows a very hi-tech sophisticated response to the crisis. I would say showcasing best in class arrangement to manage the issue. Disciplined citizens wearing masks, no panic, Public Health officials in hazmat suits checking passengers, a glittering building that the CHinese National CDC equivalent. This crisis has come a time when the annual Chinese new Year Celebrations are nearing (it is the largest annual human migration on earth) workers leave their place of work and make their annual pilgrimage to their villages and home towns and could be a worse time for the outbreak.

It may also be a Chinese internal test for war preparation. Every system we see used/stress tested will also be a potent system during other emergencies.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby tandav » 25 Jan 2020 15:31



I see here the map shows Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh as more part of China rather than India (darker claim lines as compared to Indian claim lines which are shown lighter).

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Rishirishi » 03 Feb 2020 05:40

Now there’s gloom. “There are no bright spots for China’s economy,” said Huang Bin, chief executive of a cellphone-packaging maker, Shenzhen Zhongyu Plastics Co.


In cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai, office vacancy rates are solidly in the double-digit percentage points as companies quietly downsize.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-economic-growth-slows-to-6-1-as-trade-and-business-confidence-suffer-11579236022

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby sanjaykumar » 03 Feb 2020 07:45

tandav wrote:
vimal wrote:OT here but the tone of articles w.r.t China is still repectful. Had Corona Virus been Indian there would be Hindu nationalism, Cow, Caste and Curry all over it. Also, the need to provide for poor instead of mangalyaan.


The reason is that the visuals coming of out China shows a very hi-tech sophisticated response to the crisis. I would say showcasing best in class arrangement to manage the issue. Disciplined citizens wearing masks, no panic, Public Health officials in hazmat suits checking passengers, a glittering building that the CHinese National CDC equivalent. This crisis has come a time when the annual Chinese new Year Celebrations are nearing (it is the largest annual human migration on earth) workers leave their place of work and make their annual pilgrimage to their villages and home towns and could be a worse time for the outbreak.

It may also be a Chinese internal test for war preparation. Every system we see used/stress tested will also be a potent system during other emergencies.


The Chinese only show what they want you to see. Several years ago, the earthquake in southern China that levelled all those schools IIRC, the video was of smartly dressed rescue workers drill marching into the rubble. Problem was there was no dust on any of the yellow vests!

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby kittoo » 03 Feb 2020 09:22

sanjaykumar wrote:
tandav wrote:
The reason is that the visuals coming of out China shows a very hi-tech sophisticated response to the crisis. I would say showcasing best in class arrangement to manage the issue. Disciplined citizens wearing masks, no panic, Public Health officials in hazmat suits checking passengers, a glittering building that the CHinese National CDC equivalent. This crisis has come a time when the annual Chinese new Year Celebrations are nearing (it is the largest annual human migration on earth) workers leave their place of work and make their annual pilgrimage to their villages and home towns and could be a worse time for the outbreak.

It may also be a Chinese internal test for war preparation. Every system we see used/stress tested will also be a potent system during other emergencies.


The Chinese only show what they want you to see. Several years ago, the earthquake in southern China that levelled all those schools IIRC, the video was of smartly dressed rescue workers drill marching into the rubble. Problem was there was no dust on any of the yellow vests!


Leaving official videos aside, i was watching YouTube videos of people still in Wuhan, aerial videos of the cities etc and there is absolutely no denying that thr Chinese have built world class infrastructure almost everywhere. There is just no comparison. All videos show US level infrastructure with 10 lane roads, triple level flyovers, bullet trains.
They are indeed im competition with US only and not with us.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby sanjaykumar » 03 Feb 2020 09:35

There is no question. The depth and breadth of the physical infrastructure is impressive. They do have severe quality issues with construction standards, electrical, building safety etc.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby chetak » 04 Feb 2020 04:47

twitter



China’s GDP growth rate projected by new survey to slow to an annual average of 4.5% in 2018-22, 2.8% in 2023-29 and 1.5% 2030 onwards




China’s Too Big Not to Slow Down



China’s Too Big Not to Slow Down


China is losing that wow factor.

Another economic growth number with a six in front of it. Another tired superlative about the slowest expansion in three decades. There’s going to be a lot of that as China’s economy gets bigger, older and loses that emerging-market glamour. Nothing inherently bad about that.

We’ve become so used to China’s sway that it’s easy to forget its modern economy is just 40 years old. As the Middle Kingdom settles into a pattern resembling a big power’s, it will be common for gross domestic product figures — actual or forecast — to be the lowest in decades. In time, China will eke out a pace that looks slow even by post-2008 U.S. standards.

That’s one context for looking at the growth goal released Tuesday by Premier Li Keqiang at the National People’s Congress. The target is 6 percent to 6.5 percent for 2019, down from about 6.5 percent penciled in last year. Making this a range of outcomes, rather than a specific number, acknowledges that China is cooling from short-term factors within the broader framework of a much longer evolution.

Putting Li's New Target in Context
China's growth rate grinds steadily lower

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

The immediate story: China is buffeted by efforts to shed a legacy of profligate lending and has taken a bit of a hit from the trade war. This will wash out at some point; the trade missiles lobbed over the past year are unlikely to be a regular fixture. Rather than open-slather stimulus to nurse the economy through this cyclical soft patch, Beijing is going for more tailored measures, such as the cut in value-added tax that Li also unveiled. A full-blown interest rate cut, for example, has been resisted.

The longer tale is how China’s growth profile falls more into line with that of major economies and onetime emerging markets that have now matured, like South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. China’s expansion will lag emerging markets’ and become positively microscopic compared with the double digits fawned over in the early 2000s.

China’s real growth rate will be more like 4.5 percent between 2018 and 2022, 2.8 percent from 2023 through 2030 and 1.5 percent in the following decade, Capital Economics projected at a conference in Singapore Tuesday. To put this in perspective, developed economies will hover between 1.6 and 1.8 percent. The OECD made similar points in this paper last year.

That isn’t to say Beijing shouldn’t loosen the fiscal and monetary reins to smooth out the short-term sag, which is what economies big and small do in moments like these. Relative to past cycles, authorities have been conservative in their response. That’s a mature response befitting a maturing country.

China no longer looks like the unstoppable economic juggernaut we saw in the last decade. It has ups and downs, patches of strength and weakness, like other substantial powers.

Report cards that go from beginning with 8-point-something, to 7, to 6 — and eventually to 5 and below — are no longer head-turning. That’s the way it should be. It’s what happens when you grow up.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Rishirishi » 04 Feb 2020 05:01

Leaving official videos aside, i was watching YouTube videos of people still in Wuhan, aerial videos of the cities etc and there is absolutely no denying that thr Chinese have built world class infrastructure almost everywhere. There is just no comparison. All videos show US level infrastructure with 10 lane roads, triple level flyovers, bullet trains.
They are indeed im competition with US only and not with us.


Having been to China several times, I can verify the claim. They are way ahead of US. High speed trains, express ways, metros, airports, etc. It is all very good.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby hgupta » 04 Feb 2020 05:03

Rishi, hows the quality of construction and materials? How well do they do the upkeep? I would like an unbiased view of the Chinese infrastructure and its construction industry.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby tandav » 04 Feb 2020 09:13

Their biggest advantage over us is land acquisition. I have been mentioning that in densely populated areas like India there land should not be owned only leased from the state. It will unlock the productivity of the entire nation if land ownership and acquisition issues are resolved.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Nikhil T » 05 Feb 2020 00:24

Rishirishi wrote:
Leaving official videos aside, i was watching YouTube videos of people still in Wuhan, aerial videos of the cities etc and there is absolutely no denying that thr Chinese have built world class infrastructure almost everywhere. There is just no comparison. All videos show US level infrastructure with 10 lane roads, triple level flyovers, bullet trains.
They are indeed in competition with US only and not with us.


Having been to China several times, I can verify the claim. They are way ahead of US. High speed trains, express ways, metros, airports, etc. It is all very good.


+1. Have been to Shanghai (and its outskirts) and can confirm too. The level of infrastructure is firmly along the lines of Singapore or NYC. Unfortunately, the hard truth is that Mumbai doesn't even compare with Shanghai - it is far, far behind.

tandav wrote:Their biggest advantage over us is land acquisition. I have been mentioning that in densely populated areas like India there land should not be owned only leased from the state. It will unlock the productivity of the entire nation if land ownership and acquisition issues are resolved.


Land acquisition is a part of it. The bigger part is their foresight and planning. Mumbai and Shanghai have almost the same population, but Shanghai is 10X larger in land area and hence, has manageable population density and infrastructure.

In addition to tier 1 cities such as Shanghai, China has developed a bunch of tier 2 that are absorbing people that seek to move from the rural areas. Unlike India, where the choice is limited to the four metros + BLR/HYD. They can sometimes go overboard in their planning (e.g. ghost cities with 0 occupancy), but by and large they are very successful. You only have to look at highways, HSR, solar power, wind power etc. to see how they achieve their goals with planning.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby chola » 05 Feb 2020 02:35

^^^ For all their first world infrastructure and planning, they retain that paleozoic hunter-gatherer mindset in their food with all those bloody and squirming critters in their markets that would be more at home with African Bushmen or Papua New Guinea headhunters.

This actually makes them interesting to research. Japanese are rather westernized. Koreans a little less (they eat dogs.) But chinis are the proto-mongoloids, a throwback race among the skyscrapers of the Far East.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby tandav » 05 Feb 2020 09:53

[youtube][/youtube]
Nikhil T wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:
Having been to China several times, I can verify the claim. They are way ahead of US. High speed trains, express ways, metros, airports, etc. It is all very good.


+1. Have been to Shanghai (and its outskirts) and can confirm too. The level of infrastructure is firmly along the lines of Singapore or NYC. Unfortunately, the hard truth is that Mumbai doesn't even compare with Shanghai - it is far, far behind.

tandav wrote:Their biggest advantage over us is land acquisition. I have been mentioning that in densely populated areas like India there land should not be owned only leased from the state. It will unlock the productivity of the entire nation if land ownership and acquisition issues are resolved.


Land acquisition is a part of it. The bigger part is their foresight and planning. Mumbai and Shanghai have almost the same population, but Shanghai is 10X larger in land area and hence, has manageable population density and infrastructure.

In addition to tier 1 cities such as Shanghai, China has developed a bunch of tier 2 that are absorbing people that seek to move from the rural areas. Unlike India, where the choice is limited to the four metros + BLR/HYD. They can sometimes go overboard in their planning (e.g. ghost cities with 0 occupancy), but by and large they are very successful. You only have to look at highways, HSR, solar power, wind power etc. to see how they achieve their goals with planning.


How can you have planning if you cannot acquire the land required. The other point is how does Mumbai become 10X bigger and still have reasonable connectivity. As of date it take me 1 Hour to travel 10K in traffic in Mumbai. Unlike in other nations Mumbai cannot increase its area by recovering land from Sea as our stupid laws make it impossible. Essentially it appears that the legal system in India is not designed for speed and economic growth. Heck It would make eminent sense to fill up lying sea areas and convert to real estate.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Rishirishi » 07 Feb 2020 05:50

hgupta wrote:Rishi, hows the quality of construction and materials? How well do they do the upkeep? I would like an unbiased view of the Chinese infrastructure and its construction industry.



Well, their older buildings were perhaps not as good, But the latest ones are better. Roads, airports etc tend to be pretty good. The organisation is generally superb. Well planned, and functional. Better then US for sure. But the building standards do not match the Germans or the Scandinavians.

Way better then India. Specially the planning and organisation is much much better. Sad to say it, but India suc*s big-time. :cry:

India needs to get its act together, so that the brightest do not leave and the brightest choose to stay and build the nation.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Rishirishi » 07 Feb 2020 06:01

Land acquisition is a part of it. The bigger part is their foresight and planning. Mumbai and Shanghai have almost the sam 8) e population, but Shanghai is 10X larger in land area and hence, has manageable population density and infrastructure.


A lot can be done by simple organization. 90% of the public travel by public transport, yet the cars take up all the place. a simple step like putting a 30K per month toll on driving in Mumbai, would get the cars out of the roads. The buses would run much faster, and provide a better service for all. The revenue collected from toll could be used to plant trees etc. This little move would could do wonders. Singapore did just that. In stead they are investing on costal highways, that will just add to the misery.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby yensoy » 07 Feb 2020 10:08

Public transport is great for commuting - where the route and time is fixed. Public transport is terrible for folks whose travel patterns aren't as predictable. Public transport also requires excellent (i) last mile connectivity and (ii) comfortable travel to ensure that folks reach their offices refreshed rather than worn out.

Carpools are also be worth considering.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby nachiket » 08 Feb 2020 06:31

Rishirishi wrote:[
A lot can be done by simple organization. 90% of the public travel by public transport, yet the cars take up all the place. a simple step like putting a 30K per month toll on driving in Mumbai, would get the cars out of the roads. The buses would run much faster, and provide a better service for all. The revenue collected from toll could be used to plant trees etc. This little move would could do wonders. Singapore did just that. In stead they are investing on costal highways, that will just add to the misery.

This is your solution to everything. Stop people from buying and using their cars, never mind the fact that 50% of our manufacturing sector is made up of automobiles and auto-parts manufacturers. We have already seen the effects of slowing car demand on the economy in the last year. What you propose will have 10x the detrimental effect.

The time to employ drastic measures like Singapore arrives when you have already built roads and physical infra to its limit. Mumbai's roads are worse than cities in sub-saharan Africa. And it is even more ironic that you are saying this in the CHina thread when several posters above you have mentioned just how good the road infrastructure in Chinese cities actually is.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby tandav » 13 Feb 2020 10:18

I am starting a section 8/NGO company which will assist the govt in planning and execution. As of now most govt projects there very poor understanding of design and outcomes. The idea is to take experts and pay them by CSR funds to create a better design and PMC. Ask tough questions on design basis during prebids and post bid monitoring of the job. Creating open databases that can be queried by citizens. Create formal pathways where citizens can give their inputs for public projects etc. Basically a better interface between citizens and bureacracy and politicians

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Rishirishi » 14 Feb 2020 04:56

nachiket wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:[
A lot can be done by simple organization. 90% of the public travel by public transport, yet the cars take up all the place. a simple step like putting a 30K per month toll on driving in Mumbai, would get the cars out of the roads. The buses would run much faster, and provide a better service for all. The revenue collected from toll could be used to plant trees etc. This little move would could do wonders. Singapore did just that. In stead they are investing on costal highways, that will just add to the misery.


This is your solution to everything. Stop people from buying and using their cars, never mind the fact that 50% of our manufacturing sector is made up of automobiles and auto-parts manufacturers. We have already seen the effects of slowing car demand on the economy in the last year. What you propose will have 10x the detrimental effect.

The time to employ drastic measures like Singapore arrives when you have already built roads and physical infra to its limit. Mumbai's roads are worse than cities in sub-saharan Africa. And it is even more ironic that you are saying this in the CHina thread when several posters above you have mentioned just how good the road infrastructure in Chinese cities actually is.


You cant stop advancement, just to protect old-fashioned solutions. India has seen the results of such policies during the license Raj. We still have companies like AI who are kept alive against the interest of people. Where will you build roads in Mumbai?? Mumbai has no place for roads or even parking. The city is downing itself in the traffic.
Even in China there are restrictions to cars and even mopeds. They simply control the number of vehicles allowed, to ensure that traffic is manageable. They do invest a lot more in public transport, then in roads.

The solution is simple for Mumbai, put a Rs 30K per month tax on all cars. The freed up space can be used for improving the Bus service.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Nikhil T » 15 Feb 2020 04:50

100% agree. Traffic in Indian Tier-1 cities is a disaster by every living standard. Mumbai and B'lore are pathetic. We need radical changes if we are to fix anything; anything like status quo with a new bridge inaugurated here or there with much fanfare will just not cut it.

While purchasing cars in India is expensive as compared to other countries due to tax, it is a one-time activity and most people are accustomed to paying for it. We should increase the recurring cost of car ownership, while investing heavily in public transport, to fix the situation. Currently, 90% of public travels by public transport (if figures from Rishi are true), but the remaining 10% people who have their own car create 90% of the air pollution as well.

Also, these "radical" solutions are already implemented in other countries, but they are missing in India. E.g. a yearly car registration fee (not just a one-time fee like today), dedicated lanes for highly occupied vehicles, odd/even, BRTT.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby g.sarkar » 19 Feb 2020 01:59

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/18/worl ... virus.html
Live Updates: Economic Fallout From Coronavirus Grows
Reports from manufacturing, banking and other sectors showed the worsening impact of the epidemic, which has brought much of China’s economy to a standstill.U.S. stocks declined on Tuesday, a day after Apple warned that it would miss its sales forecasts due to disruption in China, as concerns about the impact of the outbreak weighed on the outlook for the global economy.
Stocks tied to the near-term ups and downs of the economy slumped, with energy, financials and industrial shares the leading losers. The S&P 500 index was down 0.5 percent at midafternoon in New York trading. Bond yields declined, with the 10-year Treasury note yielding 1.55 percent, suggesting investors are lowering their expectations for economic growth and inflation. With much of the Chinese economy stalled, demand for oil has fallen and prices were down on Tuesday, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate selling for roughly $52. In Germany, where the economy depends heavily on global demand for machinery and automobiles, a key indicator showed economic sentiment has tumbled this month, as the economic outlook has weakened.
Economic pain from epidemic continues to spread.
Economic fallout from the new coronavirus epidemic continued to spread on Tuesday, with new evidence emerging in manufacturing, financial markets, commodities, banking and other sectors. HSBC, one of the most important banks in Hong Kong, said it plans to cut 35,000 jobs and $4.5 billion in costs as it faces headwinds that include the coronavirus outbreak and months of political strife in Hong Kong. The bank, based in London, had come to depend increasingly on China for growth. Jaguar Land Rover warned that the coronavirus could soon begin to create production problems at its assembly plants in Britain. Like many carmakers, Jaguar Land Rover uses parts made in China, where many factories have shut down or slowed production; Fiat Chrysler, Renault and Hyundai have already reported interruptions as a result.
U.S. stocks declined on Tuesday, a day after Apple warned that it would miss its sales forecasts due to disruption in China, as concerns about the impact of the outbreak weighed on the outlook for the global economy.
Stocks tied to the near-term ups and downs of the economy slumped, with energy, financials and industrial shares the leading losers. The S&P 500 index was down 0.5 percent at midafternoon in New York trading. Bond yields declined, with the 10-year Treasury note yielding 1.55 percent, suggesting investors are lowering their expectations for economic growth and inflation. With much of the Chinese economy stalled, demand for oil has fallen and prices were down on Tuesday, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate selling for roughly $52.
In Germany, where the economy depends heavily on global demand for machinery and automobiles, a key indicator showed economic sentiment has tumbled this month, as the economic outlook has weakened.
Half of China’s population is facing new travel restrictions.
At least 150 million people in China — over 10 percent of the country’s population — are living under government restrictions on how often they can leave their homes, The New York Times found in examining dozens of local government announcements and reports from state-run news outlets.
.....
Gautam

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby chola » 19 Feb 2020 21:31

^^^ And Unkil is preparing more blows:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/technology/huawei-racketeering-wire-fraud.html

https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transport/us-mulls-halting-leap-engine-sales-to-c919-programme-reports/136781.article

We might be seeing the end of the cheeni challenge to the US. The PRC might have peaked in 2018.

In ten years, we'll look back and see this is where the US had Cheen neutered.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Postby Suraj » 22 Feb 2020 12:53

The ongoing Coronavisus crisis has the potential to generate a 2008-09 like economic crisis. This is because of the enforced lockdown of the Chinese economy. Approximately 750 million people are on lockdown. Car sales are down to approx 800 a day, down 95% . There's probably more cars sold in TSP than PRC now. Their estimated Feb PMI is 28-30 . That's right, THIRTY. PMI typically oscillates around 48-52, a number above 50 indicating expansion. PMI of 45 is a very bad number. 30 is basically 'someone turned off the lights'. About $300 billion in Chinese muni loans come due in 2020, but cities are shut, people are not getting paid, and revenues are down dramatically.

Right now, it's a question of whether a vaccine is identified and mass produced as quickly as possible.


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