PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

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A_Gupta
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

One more of those China is cooking the books stories from Bloomberg.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... tle-secret
China Has a Dirty $1 Trillion Stimulus Secret
Another economy-boosting infrastructure binge is afoot, but you won’t find it reflected in the fiscal deficit target.
China has stacked up almost 30 trillion yuan of LGFV debt, according to HSBC Holdings Plc, or roughly 30 percent of GDP. Once LGFV debt and special purpose bonds are accounted for, Beijing year after year is racking up a fiscal deficit in the neighborhood of 8 percent of GDP, more than twice the official figure, the bank estimates.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by ArjunPandit »

Are you bored, want some fun for free...look no further than this

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1152120.shtml
An internet user with the pseudonym Moka, with more than 242,000 followers on Weibo, slammed FedEx China Thursday for confiscating chipset products delivered from a factory in the island of Taiwan to Huawei's office on the Chinese mainland.
funnier
An insider with close knowledge of the incidents told the Global Times on Tuesday that FedEx's behavior violates business cooperation principles and may also hurt its credibility.
funniest
"It's disgusting. An international express company is becoming a tool of the US government. It's surely a US firm," said the insider, who refused to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.
who said only chinese could joke
Later in the day, FedEx said on its official Sina Weibo account in response to the incident that "we value all of our customers who entrust more than 15 million packages a day with us."

"We regret that this isolated number of Huawei packages were inadvertently misrouted, and confirm that we were not requested by any external party to divert these packages which are in the process of being returned to the shippers," the company said.

It doesnt end here guys
"Errors only happened to Huawei among 15 million packages a day… interesting," commented a user.

"Isolated issue? All 4 packages were destined for Huawei. The FedEx business should be terminated in Asia," posted a user on Twitter.

"The package is from Japan to China, totally nothing to do with the US. Today they can divert Huawei's package. Tomorrow they can divert yours." tweeted another.
Shen Yi, head of Fudan University's Cyberspace Governance Research Institute, said that "the incident has left the Chinese public and firms with no choice but to suspect that FedEx is connected with US intelligence agencies."
Cyber space governance insti in china, we should also have Islamophobia prevention insti and democracy prevention isnti there...also pakistan can have world anti terror (Wat) insti there
Fang noted that the US private sector, government and even the military have formed a complex "to act jointly."
how can they, only we can do it
"In the modern world of globalization, this kind of complex, with a long-arm jurisdiction approach, is very destructive" for countries and companies around the globe "if the complex extended its approach beyond the territory of the US," Fang said.
Ok i need to smoke what fang is smoking, chola, UBji do you know that??
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... le/589423/
The Migrant Workers Behind China’s Economic Miracle Are Miserable
Chinese workers who moved from the countryside to urban areas have found social mobility to be impossible.
China has freed more than 850 million people from absolute poverty in recent decades, a period in which the ruling Communist Party made a simple pledge to its population: Avoid interfering with the political order, and prosperity will be yours. This contract worked for China’s middle class, which grew from 29 million in the 1990s to some 531 million in 2013. In 2019, however, Beijing’s mission has become more complicated, and Liu’s story is typical of the 228 million migrants who work in China’s cities today. These workers, known as nongmingong, have seen their wealth increase, but their place in Chinese society is largely unclear. China’s cities are becoming more and more hostile to the people on whose backs they were built, and the nongmingong are not feeling the gains of the government’s promise.
Migrants also face a formidable set of institutional barriers in their attempts at success in the city. Chinese society is organized in a system of household registration known as hukou. If you are born in a rural area, it is usually impossible to change to an urban hukou regardless of how long you work in the city, a system that bars migrants from certain jobs and prevents access to health care and education for their children. It dates from pre-Communist China, but in the second half of the 20th century, it became so decisive in determining life opportunities that it has been compared to the caste system. A 2018 study in Baoding found that migrant workers who, in some cases, had lived in the city for decades had little emotional attachment to it, and their lack of security and happiness was central to this feeling. Researchers found that limitations on their hukou rights had determined much of their outlook on their lives.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

One more of those:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/falling ... cture.html
An under-the-radar way to measure economic growth in China is painting a bleak picture
Diesel demand in China fell 14% and 19% in March and April respectively, reaching levels not seen in a decade, according to data compiled by Wells Fargo.

China said in April its economy grew by 6.4% in the first quarter of 2019. However, global investors and economists have been skeptical of China’s official economic figures for years as they believe they overstate how much China’s economy is growing.
China apparent diesel demand 2006 to present
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, Bloomberg
Image
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

If true, a game-changer.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... eakthrough
China cracks cheap lithium production in electric car breakthrough
The production of lithium – an essential ingredient in batteries for electric cars – has become easier and significantly cheaper, thanks to a technological breakthrough, just as US concerns about China’s dominance in the supply chain are on the rise.
The cost of extracting the mineral has been slashed to a “record low” of 15,000 yuan (US$2,180) per tonne by the new process, a Chinese government report said.

That compares to an international price for lithium ranging from US$12,000 to US$20,000 per tonne – and a long-term contract price of about US$17,000 – over the past year, according to some industrial estimates.

The precise production costs of lithium are a closely guarded business secret, but industry insiders interviewed by the South China Morning Post agreed that the rate quoted in the report could be considered one of, if not the lowest, around.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by yensoy »

New process = old process + government subsidy
chola
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by chola »

A_Gupta wrote:One more of those:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/falling ... cture.html
An under-the-radar way to measure economic growth in China is painting a bleak picture

China apparent diesel demand 2006 to present
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, Bloomberg
Image
Trump is killing them. Let's hope they have the balls to continue fighting and weakening.

A full chini capitulation that allows them restart growth albeit with more Amreeki penetration and control of their market won't help us that much.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

China Has Lots of Policy Room if Trade War Worsens, PBOC Chief Says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -gang-says
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

Trump: If President Xi does not attend G-20, more China tariffs will go into effect immediately

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/10/trump-i ... ately.html
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by vimal »

Austin wrote:Trump: If President Xi does not attend G-20, more China tariffs will go into effect immediately

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/10/trump-i ... ately.html
Wow! That's like saying "Xi is mah bitch" lol!
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

Huawei says US ban will cost it $30 billion in lost sales over two years

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/17/tech ... index.html
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.spiegel.de/international/bu ... 75643.html
The World's Bank
Vast Chinese Loans Pose Risks to Developing World

China is the largest creditor in the world, funding infrastructure projects in the developing world in exchange for access to raw materials. A new study shows that the risk of a new debt crisis is significant.
By Bartholomäus Grill, Michael Sauga and Bernhard Zand July 04, 2019
The future rail link cuts its way through the jungles of Laos for over 400 kilometers. Soon, trains will be rolling through -- over bridges, through tunnels and across dams built just for the line, which runs from the Chinese border in the north to the Laotian capital of Vientiane on the Mekong River. After five years of construction, the line is set to go into service in 2021. And the Chinese head of one of the sections has no doubt that it will be finished on time. "Our office alone employs 4,000 workers," he says. There is also no lack of money: The Chinese government in Beijing has earmarked around 6 billion dollars for the project and has recently become both Laos's largest creditor and most significant provider of development aid.
China, after all, isn't just directly financing 70 percent of the new train lain, it is also building dams, schools, military hospitals and has even launched a communications satellite into space for the country. In April, Beijing loaned Laos another 40 million dollars for road construction -- a credit that was provided through the multilateral Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank based in Beijing, a financial institution that China established as an alternative to Western development banks. If Hong Kong is included, China isn't just the largest creditor in Laos, but in the entire world. Beijing's foreign loans dominate global markets almost to the same degree as its toys, smartphones and electric scooters do. From Kenya to Montenegro, from Ecuador to Djibouti, roads, dams and power plants are being built with billions in loans from Beijing. And all of those countries will have to pay back those loans in the years to come. With interest.
The flood of capital from China helped prevent the global economy from plunging into depression following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing financial crisis. But it isn't without controversy.For some, the billions of dollars from China are a welcome contribution to helping many underdeveloped regions in Asia and Africa expand infrastructure. For others, the loans from Beijing have forced half the world into economic and political dependency on Beijing. Some have described the situation as "debt bondage," while a group of U.S. senators wrote a letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo last summer warning of China's "attempt to weaponize capital."
A Lack of Transparency
Furthermore, little is actually known about the loans. China's foreign assets are now worth $6 trillion, but outside of the government in Beijing, nobody knows much about where that money has been invested and what conditions and risks are attached. Because China doesn't completely open its books to international organizations like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), there is a lack of needed transparency, says IMF head Christine Lagarde.
Now, though, with the release of a new study by a German-American team of academics under the leadership of Harvard professor Carmen Reinhart, Largarde will have a clearer picture. For months, the economists dug through both known and unknown source material, compiling the most comprehensive analysis yet of Chinese foreign loans. And the image that has resulted does nothing to assuage concerns about the financial power being exerted by Beijing.
......
Gautam
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/14/busi ... Dispatches
China’s Economic Growth Slows as Trade War With U.S. Deepens
By Keith Bradsher, July 14, 2019
BEIJING — China’s growth fell to its slowest pace in nearly three decades, officials said on Monday, as a resurgence of trade tensions with the United States and lingering financial problems take an increasing toll on one of the world’s most vital economic engines.
Chinese officials said the economy grew 6.2 percent between April and June compared with a year earlier. While such economic growth would be the envy of most of the world, it represented the slowest pace in China since the beginning of modern quarterly record-keeping in 1992. That marks a significant slowdown from earlier this year, when growth came in at 6.4 percent, matching a 27-year low reached during the global financial crisis a decade ago.
Premier Li Keqiang set a target in March for economic growth to be between 6 and 6.5 percent this year. The figures on Monday fell within that range. But much of the growth in the quarter may have taken place in April and early May, when public confidence was higher because of a tax cut in March and heavy infrastructure spending as spring began. Trade talks broke down on May 10 and President Trump raised tariffs sharply on Chinese goods, a step that damaged consumer confidence within China. Growth early in the quarter also would have taken place before the contentious government takeover of a bank in late May hurt financial confidence.
Monthly economic data, particularly for imports, suggests that the second quarter started strong but then slowed. “There was certainly a surge in activity through April,” said George Magnus, a longtime specialist in the Chinese economy who is now at Oxford University. “Something happened in May.” The number may also understate the extent of the slowdown. Economists widely doubt the veracity of the top Chinese growth figure, which shows far more stability than comparable numbers from the United States and elsewhere.
A few sectors of the Chinese economy are doing fairly well. The strongest sector appears to be the construction of infrastructure, much of it paid for with money borrowed by local, provincial and national government agencies. The biggest drag on the Chinese economy lies in trade, which grew powerfully over the past three decades but has stopped rising in recent months. Exports dipped 1.3 percent in June from a year earlier, the government said on Friday, and imports fell 7.3 percent.
While the trade war has hurt American purchases from China, economic weakness in Europe and many Asian countries has caused overseas demand to weaken far more broadly than just in the United States. Last week, Singapore unexpectedly announced that its trade-dependent economy had shrunk at an annualized rate of 3.4 percent in the second quarter.
.....
Gautam
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Vips »

China’s debt at 303% of GDP, 15% of global total: Report.

A key gauge of China's debt has topped 300% of gross domestic product, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), as Beijing steps up support for the cooling economy while trying to contain financial risks.

China's total corporate, household and government debt rose to 303% of GDP in the first quarter of 2019, from 297% in the same period a year
earlier, the IIF said in a report this week which highlighted rising debt levels worldwide.

The IIF is a private global financial industry association, based in Washington.

"While authorities' efforts to curb shadow bank lending (particularly to smaller companies) have prompted a cutback in nonfinancial corporate debt, net borrowing in other sectors has brought China's total debt to over $40 trillion - some 15% of all global debt," the report said.

"Of note, onshore bond issuance suggests a big pickup in borrowing by local governments and banks this year."

China's economic growth slowed to 6.2% in the second quarter, its weakest pace in at least 27 years, as demand at home and abroad faltered in the face of mounting US trade pressure.

To revive investment and protect jobs, Beijing has been encouraging banks to lend more, particularly to struggling smaller firms. It has also unveiled billions of dollars in tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

In the first half of this year, local governments' total net bond issuance reached 2.1765 trillion yuan ($316.5 billion), the finance ministry said on Tuesday.

Chinese officials have said repeatedly said debt risks are manageable overall.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Rishirishi »

Vips wrote:China’s debt at 303% of GDP, 15% of global total: Report.

A key gauge of China's debt has topped 300% of gross domestic product, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), as Beijing steps up support for the cooling economy while trying to contain financial risks.

China's total corporate, household and government debt rose to 303% of GDP in the first quarter of 2019, from 297% in the same period a year
earlier, the IIF said in a report this week which highlighted rising debt levels worldwide.

The IIF is a private global financial industry association, based in Washington.

"While authorities' efforts to curb shadow bank lending (particularly to smaller companies) have prompted a cutback in nonfinancial corporate debt, net borrowing in other sectors has brought China's total debt to over $40 trillion - some 15% of all global debt," the report said.

"Of note, onshore bond issuance suggests a big pickup in borrowing by local governments and banks this year."

China's economic growth slowed to 6.2% in the second quarter, its weakest pace in at least 27 years, as demand at home and abroad faltered in the face of mounting US trade pressure.

To revive investment and protect jobs, Beijing has been encouraging banks to lend more, particularly to struggling smaller firms. It has also unveiled billions of dollars in tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

In the first half of this year, local governments' total net bond issuance reached 2.1765 trillion yuan ($316.5 billion), the finance ministry said on Tuesday.

Chinese officials have said repeatedly said debt risks are manageable overall.
The thing with China is that they can simply forgive all the debts. They have already built a massive infrastructure, this is going no where. They know very well this game of debt will not last for ever. Any "normal" economy would have failed long time ago. But the Chinese can keep it going, and when it finally comes to an halt, they can simply reboot the whole system, by writing off all the debts.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Rahulsidhu »

Rishirishi wrote:
Vips wrote:China’s debt at 303% of GDP, 15% of global total: Report.

A key gauge of China's debt has topped 300% of gross domestic product, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), as Beijing steps up support for the cooling economy while trying to contain financial risks.
The thing with China is that they can simply forgive all the debts. They have already built a massive infrastructure, this is going no where. They know very well this game of debt will not last for ever. Any "normal" economy would have failed long time ago. But the Chinese can keep it going, and when it finally comes to an halt, they can simply reboot the whole system, by writing off all the debts.
Agree. The fears of a debt/financial crisis in China are overblown for precisely this reason -- the line between public/private sector is not so sharp and the govt can effectively write off public/private sector debt to the extent needed. There are two potential problems with this
1) Inflaton: but unlikely given the massive overcapacity in China
2) loss of economic dynamism due to moral hazard. This is a real problem IMO.

With the above reasoning in mind, total debt/GDP numbers should be examined to see the composition: local vs foreign ccy, public vs private. Until not so long ago, lots of analysts used to sound alarm bells about high debt/GDP ratio of Japanese govt, seemingly oblivious to the fact that local ccy govt bonds are not a credit instrument at all but a rate instrument. Japanese govt is never going to default on JGBs.

Lesson for India: ignore all the alarmist talk about how govt debt is too high and we cannot take on more. As long as debt is in local currency and inflation is managed, there is no problem.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Rishirishi »

Rahulsidhu wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:
The thing with China is that they can simply forgive all the debts. They have already built a massive infrastructure, this is going no where. They know very well this game of debt will not last for ever. Any "normal" economy would have failed long time ago. But the Chinese can keep it going, and when it finally comes to an halt, they can simply reboot the whole system, by writing off all the debts.
Agree. The fears of a debt/financial crisis in China are overblown for precisely this reason -- the line between public/private sector is not so sharp and the govt can effectively write off public/private sector debt to the extent needed. There are two potential problems with this
1) Inflaton: but unlikely given the massive overcapacity in China
2) loss of economic dynamism due to moral hazard. This is a real problem IMO.

With the above reasoning in mind, total debt/GDP numbers should be examined to see the composition: local vs foreign ccy, public vs private. Until not so long ago, lots of analysts used to sound alarm bells about high debt/GDP ratio of Japanese govt, seemingly oblivious to the fact that local ccy govt bonds are not a credit instrument at all but a rate instrument. Japanese govt is never going to default on JGBs.

Lesson for India: ignore all the alarmist talk about how govt debt is too high and we cannot take on more. As long as debt is in local currency and inflation is managed, there is no problem.

Well I think the basic problem is how the government end up spending the cash. If it goes for subsidies and other unproductive things, it will just harm India. But If India somehow managed to free another 250 billion dollars per year for Infrastructure the game would change very fast. That would be sufficient to build 25 000 km 4 lane highway every year. Within 10 years India would have 250 000 km of first class highway. Every village would be near a highway. It would do wonders to the economy. Just think about it about 30% of the vegitables in India simply rot on the way to the market.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by UlanBatori »

A small pooch to the experts: Today's news says that PRC devalued its currency and that is a huge retaliation against the US. Huh? Devaluing your own currency is like cutting your own throat, hain? Isn't this economic soosai?
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by hanumadu »

Devaluation will help exports as it makes them cheaper. It will reduce the increase in cost caused by the tariffs. And its probably not aimed just at the US but also other countries including India.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by chola »

UlanBatori wrote:A small pooch to the experts: Today's news says that PRC devalued its currency and that is a huge retaliation against the US. Huh? Devaluing your own currency is like cutting your own throat, hain? Isn't this economic soosai?
Lol. Devalue sounds like they had a choice. Nope, the fact is they can no longer defend the exchange rate under 7 as Trump crushes their export engine.

The US has them trapped either way. If they defend the Yuan under 7 then they'll hemorrhage forex as their exports fall. But if they don't defend and allow the market to clobber the Yuan (as is happening) then they could hemorrhage wealth as the MNCs and wealthy class panic and try to move out of China and the yuan before their assets are depreciated through inflation.

Unkil will clobber them either way. People don't understand how powerful the US game is.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by hanumadu »

^^When it comes to US and China, you can't seem to stop praising the US. When it comes to India-China, you can't seem to stop praising China.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by chola »

^^^ Probably because of the reality of the situation. The US is obviously far more powerful than Cheen with more (and powerful) allies and a much more experienced and larger military.

Vis a vis India, I praise them as a challenge that we can use to improve, especially on the MIC and production side of things. I much rather see us in rivalry with Cheen than Pakiland.

But if you read my writings, I find Cheen an overwhelmingly easy foe to clobber militarily if we had the balls or the foresight. I was horribly disappointed that we didn't go to war with them over Doklam. It would had been a history-changing victory with little cost as we owned massive, massive advantages in all potential theaters of operation. But hey why cry over spilled milk? Anyhoo, just to set the record straight on my views on Cheen.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by souravB »

Chola sir, it has been a constant complain of US in WTO that China keep its currency undervalued to boost export. To me it seems like a Chinese tit for American tat.

UB sir, The common beliefs of economics seldom works in China since CCP heavily controls everything. Devaluation leads to inflation concept goes for a toss when politburo decides how many sheets of TP one can use at a public restroom. They can always print more money but keep populace from using it with just an advisory or can just let the importers run at a loss for perpetuity.
I'd also say I understand very little how money works, maybe somebody with more knowledge on the subject can elucidate more technically.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by hanumadu »

chola wrote:^^^ Probably because of the reality of the situation. The US is obviously far more powerful than Cheen with more (and powerful) allies and a much more experienced and larger military.

Vis a vis India, I praise them as a challenge that we can use to improve, especially on the MIC and production side of things. I much rather see us in rivalry with Cheen than Pakiland.

But if you read my writings, I find Cheen an overwhelmingly easy foe to clobber militarily if we had the balls or the foresight. I was horribly disappointed that we didn't go to war with them over Doklam. It would had been a history-changing victory with little cost as we owned massive, massive advantages in all potential theaters of operation. But hey why cry over spilled milk? Anyhoo, just to set the record straight on my views on Cheen.
IMO, the situation is not so simple. What has come of the trade war so far? China is countering the tariffs by devaluing its yen. What's the US going to do? Devalue its own currency? It can't because it is the reserve currency.
After years of killing American industry, China is now in a slight pickle with America now which is temporary. But China is a country with 1.3 billion people. Sooner or later, it will be American companies who will be asking China for access. China is probably two or three key technologies away from not needing US ever again.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Rahulsidhu »

hanumadu wrote:
IMO, the situation is not so simple. What has come of the trade war so far? China is countering the tariffs by devaluing its yen. What's the US going to do? Devalue its own currency? It can't because it is the reserve currency.
How does that stop the US from buying foreign currencies? This is a very real possibility being discussed now.
After years of killing American industry, China is now in a slight pickle with America now which is temporary. But China is a country with 1.3 billion people. Sooner or later, it will be American companies who will be asking China for access.
I think that ship has sailed. US companies, barring some auto cos. and Apple have not really profited much from China. Even that is under threat now.
China is probably two or three key technologies away from not needing US ever again.
Agree. I think we are about to see a new cold war, with two distinct tech, econ, political spheres. Might just induce enough competition to lift the world out of the so called "secular stagnation". As an example: the new space race.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Rahulsidhu »

One thing to keep in mind when thinking about the trade war b/w US & China - things are not how they seem on the surface.

Just a few weeks ago, there was the meeting in Osaka and a sense of general optimism in the markets. But behind the scenes, things had worsened. Right now, things are looking extremely dark, but one tweet from Trump could change that.

In the end, I do not think there will be a trade deal, as both sides now fully recognize each other as rival superpowers and this is more geopolitical competition than trade negotiations. But there will be lots of ups and downs.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by UlanBatori »

^^^^ So I would say that the Experts at the Global Summits either have no clue about anything, or they are much worse: they are experts in match-fixing. Now markets are down. But will they stay down, how far down and for how long? Those who know, take the right risk, or are plain lucky, will reap trillions.
At the end of the day, devaluing the yuan means that the peasants in rural cheen are going to get stomped on. Just like rural Indians. City slickers will spout International E-CON-o-Comics and get paid at new conversion rate in equivalent dollars, and then point to Purchasing Power Parity because food and other rural products continue to be cheap as the peasant starve.

Hopefully this leads to the Curtular Levorution-II. :mrgreen: This time more like Frogistani and Russkie Revolutions. Pee All See Pee Ell Ay forced to withdraw from Uttar Arunachal and Uttar Himachal in order to try and save the CPC's asses in S-Hang-Hai and Pee-King from the mobs. Before they too defect to the mobs.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by chola »

Rahulsidhu wrote:
hanumadu wrote:
IMO, the situation is not so simple. What has come of the trade war so far? China is countering the tariffs by devaluing its yen. What's the US going to do? Devalue its own currency? It can't because it is the reserve currency.
How does that stop the US from buying foreign currencies? This is a very real possibility being discussed now.
After years of killing American industry, China is now in a slight pickle with America now which is temporary. But China is a country with 1.3 billion people. Sooner or later, it will be American companies who will be asking China for access.
I think that ship has sailed. US companies, barring some auto cos. and Apple have not really profited much from China. Even that is under threat now.
China is probably two or three key technologies away from not needing US ever again.
Agree. I think we are about to see a new cold war, with two distinct tech, econ, political spheres. Might just induce enough competition to lift the world out of the so called "secular stagnation". As an example: the new space race.
No, Cheen had been extremely profitable for the US Fortune 500. It's everything from Starbucks and KFC to GM and Ford to Intel and Qualcomm to Boeing and Caterpillar to Warner and Disney to Coach and Tiffany's. The Fortune 500's move into building Chimerica in the last three decades had been wide and deep and profitable to the extreme. You can charge up to three times in Cheen versus what you could in the US. I'm on Wall Street, I know.

But losing the chini market is better than losing the technological lead. The "two or three key technologies away" is exactly why this war is being fought.

Two times before, the US had embargoed itself when it was on the cusp of dominating a pivotal chini industry: US was about to take over Cheen's satellite market when Bush punished LM and ended Amreeki involvement in Cheen's aerospace and then High Performance or supercomputers in Cheen were dependent on US chips until Obama put a stop to that.

Right now, the US dominates 70 percent of Cheen's PC and cellphone chips but the Huawei and ZTE bans had started to erode that.

So Wall Street is skeptical about giving up the chini market and its control of sectors within it like chips, autos and aircraft. But there is also no doubt that the Fortune 500 involvement in Cheen is powering its ascent.

If decoupling can wreck or even slow down the PRC's upward trajectory then you have to put security over profit.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »


Trade war is raising the risk of U.S. recession, Goldman Sachs warns


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trade ... re_twitter
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-e ... ay-at-home
Asia's Beaches Go Quiet as Chinese Tourists Stay Home
Randy Thanthong-Knight, Harry Suhartono, Xuan Quynh Nguyen, September 06 2019,
From quiet beaches in Bali to empty rooms in Hanoi’s hotels, pangs from China’s economic malaise and weakening yuan are being felt across Southeast Asia’s vacation belt. A boom in Chinese outbound travel in recent years that stoked tourism across Southeast Asia is now in reverse gear. The abrupt decline of Chinese travelers is becoming a painful lesson for nations such as Thailand and Indonesia that had become overly dependent on Asia’s top economy.
“The slump in Chinese arrivals and tourism spending is being felt throughout the region,” said Kampon Adireksombat, Bangkok-based head of economic and financial market research at Siam Commercial Bank Pcl. “There’s always a concentration risk when relying on one market, and many countries may not be able to find a replacement for growth fast enough.”The slump is expected to continue in 2020 if the trade war continues to weigh down the Chinese economy, he said. Rising incomes over the past decade fueled the wanderlust of middle class Chinese consumers, making them the world’s largest outbound travel market, according to a McKinsey report, with the total number of outbound trips more than doubling from 57 million trips in 2010 to 131 million trips in 2017. “Southeast Asia is usually the first destination for Chinese travelers when they opt for farther destinations,” said the report. McKinsey’s 2017 China Outbound Traveler Survey had shown that the highest number of package trips were booked to Southeast Asia.
Mandarin-speaking tours, Chinese eateries and Chinese mobile payment services mushroomed from Danang to Yogyakarta, these travelers thronged to Southeast Asian hotspots, lured by their proximity and familiar cuisines. The pullback now threatens the tourism industry with pockets of overcapacity, after companies and local governments doubled down and poured millions of dollars into expanding resorts, hotels and travel facilities.
......
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by tandav »

The speed at which the Chinese work is admirable. Elon Musk signed an agreement with Shanghai in Oct 2018, took possession for his Gigafactory3 and Oct 2019 initial production starts with 6000 cars/week likely by Dec 2019. Apparently it took 168 working days from permits to production ready facility. It is precisely this reason why China is able bring in so much global talent.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-168-days
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/24/tech ... index.html
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Rishirishi »

tandav wrote:The speed at which the Chinese work is admirable. Elon Musk signed an agreement with Shanghai in Oct 2018, took possession for his Gigafactory3 and Oct 2019 initial production starts with 6000 cars/week likely by Dec 2019. Apparently it took 168 working days from permits to production ready facility. It is precisely this reason why China is able bring in so much global talent.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-168-days
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/24/tech ... index.html
I have seen this in practice. They have the empty factory building ready for possestion. Shelf companies area ready for purchase. You can effectively start operations within 2-3 days.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Nikhil T »

tandav wrote:The speed at which the Chinese work is admirable. Elon Musk signed an agreement with Shanghai in Oct 2018, took possession for his Gigafactory3 and Oct 2019 initial production starts with 6000 cars/week likely by Dec 2019. Apparently it took 168 working days from permits to production ready facility. It is precisely this reason why China is able bring in so much global talent.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-168-days
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/24/tech ... index.html
Admirable. I'm just amazed at how fast they've been able to churn out High Speed Rail, Expressways, Airports, Naval Ships & Planes.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Manish_Sharma »

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/ban ... uan-crash/

Bank Collapse In China! $40 Trillion Dollar Debt Heading To Economic Collapse & China’s Yuan CRASH
November 25, 2019 by IWB

First, it was Baoshang Bank , then it was Bank of Jinzhou, Now it is Heng Feng Bank. This is the third bank failure in China in only three months! And they’re getting bigger in size! Kyle Bass is saying that the Chinese banking regulators have at least 500 banks flagged for potential collapse.



People’s Bank Of China: Hundreds Of Country’s Banks At Risk
People’s Bank Of China, said that about 13 percent of the country’s financial institutions were considered “high risk,”…


China Central Bank Warns High Financial Risks
China needs to resolve outstanding financial risks, and must counter risks from “abnormal” market fluctuations that stem from external shocks…

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by g.sarkar »

https://thediplomat.com/2020/01/try-as- ... to-huawei/
Try as It Might, Germany Isn’t Warming to Huawei
Germany’s domestic dispute about Huawei is growing increasingly heated – but U.S. pressure has little to do with it.
By Björn Alexander Düben, January 09, 2020

Few companies have elicited as much controversy in recent months as the Chinese electronics giant Huawei. Like many other states, Germany is presently faced with the choice of whether or not to involve Huawei in its rollout of the new fifth-generation (5G) mobile telecommunications networks – a critical infrastructure for future industrial and technological development. Due to its economic and political clout, Berlin’s choice of companies to supply 5G network components will likely set an example for other European states to follow. But for more than a year, Germany has been locked in an increasingly fierce political debate about this issue that shows no signs of abating.
Why does the choice of Huawei as a 5G network supplier arouse so much controversy in Germany? For China’s state-controlled media, the answer has been clear: a U.S.-led campaign of pressure and intimidation against its allies has sown distrust between Beijing and Berlin. Since early 2018, the United States has been investigating Huawei in connection with alleged sanctions violations. Citing security risks, Washington issued warnings to its allies – including Germany – to refrain from including Huawei equipment in their critical infrastructures, lest it would be compelled to curtail intelligence sharing with their governments. Consequently, leading Chinese media have observed that “Washington has done all it can to block Huawei equipment from entering European countries’ 5G networks, even threatening to stop sharing intelligence with allies that reject the warning.” They have consistently attributed Germany’s qualms and hesitation regarding its choice of 5G vendors to the “mounting pressure and intimidation from the United States administration” and its attempts at “defaming Huawei in a coordinated smear campaign.”
When scrutinizing the public debate in Germany, however, a different narrative emerges. Following a government announcement in mid-October that Huawei would in principle be permitted to supply components for Germany’s 5G networks, senior representatives of virtually all German political parties have come forward to condemn these plans, with only the left-wing party “Die Linke” remaining mute about the issue. Party leaders and senior lawmakers across the political spectrum have published a steady stream of op-eds, position papers, and official statements warning against Huawei’s involvement in 5G development. Among the multitude of prominent policymakers and officials in Germany who have spoken out against Huawei, some – especially in the Foreign Ministry and the German intelligence agencies – have indeed raised concerns about the U.S. stance and the future of transatlantic cooperation. But overall, these concerns have been less relevant than is often portrayed.
Prior to 2017, U.S. warnings of Chinese interference would likely have been a matter of highest priority for the German leadership. But since the onset of the Trump presidency, the rift between Berlin and Washington has grown wider than ever in the post-Cold War period. Germany’s 70-year alliance with the United States still appears outwardly intact, but opinion polls in Germany have shown that public approval of the U.S. role in the world is now at a long-time low, with Donald Trump enjoying lower trust ratings than Xi Jinping. Washington’s ambassador in Berlin, Richard Grenell, is scorned by German politicians across the political spectrum, following a string of undiplomatic intrusions in Germany’s domestic politics and explicit threats against German businesses. Grenell has been described as being more isolated in Berlin than any U.S. ambassador before him.
Many Germans have reacted with cynicism to U.S. warnings that Huawei devices could be turned into espionage tools, since they remain keenly aware of Washington’s own mass surveillance measures in Germany, revealed in 2013. At the time, many U.S. observers had dismissed German outrage as a fleeting emotion that would swiftly recede. In fact, more than six years later, anger about this episode has by no means subsided in Germany. As one of the consequences of the 2013 spying scandal, the German government ceased to employ any devices by U.S. network provider Verizon within its internal networks.
In the context of the current dispute about Huawei, many German policymakers have criticized Washington no less harshly than Beijing – even within Angela Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), traditionally the most pro-American political party in Germany. CDU intelligence expert Patrick Sensburg stated in July that he “neither trusts [5G] vendors from China, nor from the U.S.” because “in both countries, telecommunications companies need to cooperate closely with the security agencies.” During a television debate in November, Germany’s Minister of Economics Peter Altmaier – one of Merkel’s closest associates and one of the most outspoken proponents of involving Huawei in 5G construction – recalled the 2013 surveillance scandal and pointed out that, not unlike China, “the U.S. also demands from its companies that they pass on certain information needed to fight terrorism.” The comment drew an angry rebuke from U.S. Ambassador Grenell.
But for the vast majority of German policymakers who have spoken out against Huawei, the position of the United States has never been more than a secondary concern. Highest on their list of concerns has been the risk of exposing the future German 5G network to large-scale espionage and data theft on behalf of corporate and political actors in China. In recent years, Germany’s intelligence agencies have reported a steady increase in Chinese government-directed espionage and hacking activities against German targets, primarily with the aim of acquiring corporate secrets. China is now considered the source of the majority of cyberattacks against Germany. In 2019, some of the largest German companies confirmed that they had been targeted by a new wave of cyberattacks that likely originated with the Chinese government. During a parliamentary hearing on the issue of Huawei in October, Thomas Halden­wang, the president of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (Bundesverfassungsschutz), claimed that Chinese espionage and cyberattacks have been expanding into more and more sectors of the economy and the state. According to Haldenwang, while Chinese cyberattacks in Germany were previously focused primarily on private corporations and technology, China is now increasingly interested in obtaining information on German foreign, economic, and defense policy as well.
....
Gautam
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/18/opin ... y%20Review
The Chinese Population Crisis
How Communist cruelty and Western folly built an underpopulation bomb.

By Ross Douthat, Jan. 18, 2020.
In recent days both this newspaper and The Wall Street Journal have carried reports on one of the most important geopolitical facts of the 21st century: The world’s great rising power, the People’s Republic of China, is headed for a demographic crisis.
Like the United States and most developed countries, China has a birthrate that is well below replacement level. Unlike most developed countries, China is growing old without first having grown rich.
Of course China has grown richer: My colleague David Leonhardt, who spent time in China at the beginning and the end of the 2010s, just wrote a column emphasizing the “maturing” of the Chinese economy over that period, the growth of start-ups and consumer spending and the middle class.
But even after years of growth, Chinese per capita G.D.P. is still about one-third or one-fourth the size of neighboring countries like South Korea and Japan. And yet its birthrate has converged with the rich world much more quickly and completely — which has two interrelated implications, both of them grim.
First, China will have to pay for the care of a vast elderly population without the resources available to richer societies facing the same challenge. Second, China’s future growth prospects will dim with every year of below-replacement birthrates, because low fertility creates a self-reinforcing cycle — in which a less youthful society loses dynamism and growth, which reduces economic support for would-be parents, which reduces birthrates, which reduces growth …
The Times report on China’s birthrates also reminds us that this trap is cultural, quoting a young Chinese woman who remarks of her one-child-policy-shaped generation: “We are all only children, and to be honest, a little selfish … How can I raise a child when I’m still a child myself?” This is the glib explication of a real problem: Having kids, inevitably one of the harder things that human beings do, feels harder still in a society where children are invisible, siblings absent, and large families rare, where there aren’t ready exemplars or forms of solidarity for people contemplating parenthood.
In all this, what China is experiencing is part of the common demographic decadence of the developed world, which is enveloping developing countries too. As Lyman Stone writes in the latest National Review, the human race is increasingly facing a “global fertility crisis,” not just a European or American or Japanese baby bust. It’s a crisis that threatens ever-slower growth in the best case; in the worst-case, to cite a recent paper by the Stanford economist Charles Jones, it risks “an Empty Planet result: knowledge and living standards stagnate for a population that gradually vanishes.”
(An aside to answer a predictable objection: Yes, in an age of stagnation, CO2 levels won’t grow as fast, delaying some of climate change’s effects — but at the same time a stagnant society will struggle to innovate enough to escape the climate crisis permanently. And yes, an empty planet wouldn’t have a climate change problem at all, but if that’s your goal your misanthropy is terminal.)
Within this general, global story, though, the Chinese case is also distinctive, because cruel policy choices made its demographic problems worse.
For these choices — the one-child policy, and the forced abortions and sterilizations and infanticide the policy either required or encouraged — the Communist regime bears a heavy burden of guilt. And the guilt continues to build, because even with the one-child policy gone, the regime’s repression still effectively suppresses birthrates. As Stone noted recently on Twitter, by targeting minority and religious populations, Beijing is attacking the country’s more fecund groups, in what amounts to a statement that if Han birthrates have fallen, minority birthrates must be cut to match.
.....
Gautam
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/16/opin ... trade.html
What Americans Don’t Understand About China’s Power
Its biggest advantage is American stagnation
David Leonhardtm, Jan. 16, 2020

Chinese leaders stretching back to Deng Xiaoping have often thought in terms of decades. A decade encompasses two of China’s famous five-year plans, and it’s a long-enough period to notice real changes in a country’s trajectory.
As it happens, I spent time in China at both ends of the decade that just ended, first in 2010 and again recently. And I was left with one main conclusion: China has just enjoyed a very good decade.
Yes, it still has big problems, including the protests in Hong Kong. But by the standards that matter most to China’s leaders, the country made major gains during the 2010s. Its economy is more diversified. Its scientific community is more advanced, and its surveillance state more powerful. Its position in Asia is stronger. China, in short, has done substantially more to close the gap with the global power that it is chasing — the United States — than seemed likely a decade ago.
Many Americans, of course, understand that China is on the rise and are anxious about it. Yet I also returned from my trip thinking that this American anxiety tends to be misplaced in one crucial way: China is not preordained to supplant or even match the United States as the world’s leading power. China’s challenges are real, not just the protests in Hong Kong but also the dissent in Xinjiang and Tibet, the bloat in its state-run companies and the looming decline in its working-age population.
The No. 1 reason China has made such stark progress in geopolitical terms is that its rival just endured a bad decade by virtually every measure. While China takes more steps forward than backward, the United States is moving slowly in reverse.
Incomes, wealth and life expectancy in the United States have stagnated for much of the population, contributing to an angry national mood and exacerbating political divisions. The result is a semidysfunctional government that is eroding many of the country’s largest advantages over China. The United States is skimping on the investments like education, science and infrastructure that helped make it the world’s great power. It is also forfeiting the soft power that has been a core part of American pre-eminence.
President Trump plays a telling role here. More so than his predecessors, he has been willing to treat China as the strategic threat that it is. Yet he is confronting it so ham-handedly as to strengthen China. Instead of building a coalition to manage its rise — including the Asian nations in China’s shadow — Trump is alienating allies. Instead of celebrating democracy as an alternative to Chinese authoritarianism, he is denigrating the rule of law at home and cozying up to dictators abroad. Trump, as Keyu Jin, a Chinese economist at the London School of Economics, says, is “a strategic gift” for China.
The recent trade spat is an example. The Trump administration was right to take a tougher line. But after imposing unilateral sanctions, Trump then accepted a truce that did not do much to address the core problems, like China’s corporate subsidies. The current version of the United States doesn’t seem to know quite what it is — global democratic leader or parochial self-protector — and the confusion benefits China. After the Trump administration this year asked 61 countries to bar Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications company, the response was embarrassing: Only three have done so. President Emmanuel Macron of France now argues that Europe should position itself as a third global power between the United States and China, rather than what it has been — an American ally.
There is an unending debate among China experts about whether the country is weak or strong. The answer is that’s it’s both. But its direction is clear. China continues to become stronger. The maturing of the economy felt particularly striking to me as I compared my two visits. Although growth has slowed, from about 10 percent a year at the decade’s start to less than 7 percent now, part of that slowdown was inevitable, as the country became less poor. The encouraging news for China is that, as Neil Shen, the founding partner of the venture capital firm Sequoia Capital China, says, “the quality of the growth has been much improved.”
.....
Gautam
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by chetak »

looks like 4 cities have been shut down in china.

Possibility of more such measures cannot be ruled out with the hans struggling to contain the outbreak of the #WuhanCoronaVirus


twitter
All reports suggest nearly a million affected in 4 provinces -shut down in China--due to Wuhan Virus--Me think a massive revolt by public may take place since New year travel will be stopped for millions-Dear Shaheen Bagh Azadis--know what's Fascism now:))RT
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by kit »

chetak wrote:looks like 4 cities have been shut down in china.

Possibility of more such measures cannot be ruled out with the hans struggling to contain the outbreak of the #WuhanCoronaVirus


twitter
All reports suggest nearly a million affected in 4 provinces -shut down in China--due to Wuhan Virus--Me think a massive revolt by public may take place since New year travel will be stopped for millions-Dear Shaheen Bagh Azadis--know what's Fascism now:))RT
Guys, South East Asia seems very high risk for travel , wonder why the GOI is not issuing any advisories .Be warned.
chetak
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by chetak »

kit wrote:
chetak wrote:looks like 4 cities have been shut down in china.

Possibility of more such measures cannot be ruled out with the hans struggling to contain the outbreak of the #WuhanCoronaVirus


twitter
Guys, South East Asia seems very high risk for travel , wonder why the GOI is not issuing any advisories .Be warned.
something very fishy about the extremely rapid spread of the virus in china.

anyone else getting the vague and unsettling vibe of a bioweapon in play, maybe inadvertently.
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