PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

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pankajs
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by pankajs »

Just landed in my inbox. Per this analysis, the total credit is $33 trillion + $9 trillion.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/07/credit ... ays-burst/

In our analysis, China is a $33 trillion bank-credit Ponzi scheme that is destined to implode. In terms of on-balance-sheet banking assets compared to GDP, it is more than three times larger than the US banking bubble prior to the global financial crisis. It is even larger when one considers an additional $9 trillion of off-balance-sheet shadow bank credit. There are also credit and housing bubbles today in Australia and Canada. These are linked to the credit bubble in China. The chart below shows these three credit bubbles today and compares them to select past bubbles that led to severe financial crises:

Image
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by panduranghari »

pankajs saar,

You will like this. http://toppodcast.com/show-detail/?showId=1059046
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by pankajs »

Thanks. I am subscribed to the Grant's podcast but haven't been able to find time to process all that lands in my inbox.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Singha »

I have heard sydney has a astonishing housing price bubble at par with silicon valley
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by hanumadu »

Singha wrote:I have heard sydney has a astonishing housing price bubble at par with silicon valley
Lot of cities have the chinese problem.
London, Vancouver, Seattle...
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by vish_mulay »

Singha wrote:I have heard sydney has a astonishing housing price bubble at par with silicon valley
Worst than valley. We are close to Vancouver bubble territory. It will be very ugly when bust!
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by panduranghari »

Australia did not have a bust for over 25 years. They even escaped the 2008 crash. How? By not financialising the securities which caused problems in US-UK. So does it mean Australia has escaped the dredded economic cycle and achieved the true Nirvana as described by Gordon Brown - No more Booms and Busts?

In their collective dreams they hope they have.

Today 80% Australian economy is dependent on China. Housing, Stocks and even Farming and everything in between.

Canada is understandable for those ethnic Chinese seeking refuge from CCP. But Australia? It makes no sense, except if you look at it as the extended game of the CCP. They will spend money on colonising Australia and claim it for their own. Its already happening and will speed up until the Chinese hit a demographic cliff which is supposed to be in 2025 or there abouts.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by vish_mulay »

Just out of curiosity, what does Canada offer better than Australia? Correct me if I have misunderstood your post suggesting that somehow it is understandable that Chinese run to Canada out of oppression but to Australia as a communist party plan to subjugate it.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ntral-bank
Xi Backs Stronger Risk-Reduction Role for China Central Bank
Chinese President Xi Jinping said the central bank will play a stronger role in defending against risks, calling for more work on safeguarding the financial system and modernizing its regulatory framework.

China will set up a commission under the State Council to oversee financial stability and development, Xi said during the twice-a-decade National Financial Work Conference held July 14-15, state media reported late Saturday without defining the panel’s relationship with the central bank. Financial security is part of national security, and the financial sector should better serve the real economy, Xi said.

In a speech to the gathering, Xi said prudent monetary policy, a goal announced in December, should be firmly implemented. The PBOC should also take a stronger macro-prudential policy role, Xi added. He also called for greater yuan exchange-rate reform, an improved foreign-exchange market system, and steady progress in yuan internationalization, according to the reports from state media.
The announcements reflect increasing financial system vulnerability and the government’s growing desire to prevent a destabilizing shock, according to Rajiv Biswas, chief Asia-Pacific economist at IHS Markit in Singapore. “Key priorities for the PBOC and the new commission will be to stabilize the non-performing loans in the Chinese banking system, manage shadow banking risks and manage risks related to the escalating level of corporate debt,” he said.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by panduranghari »

Vish ji,

Canada opens up the door to the USA. Australia does not do so directly.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by pankajs »

A_Gupta wrote:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ntral-bank
Xi Backs Stronger Risk-Reduction Role for China Central Bank
Chinese President Xi Jinping said the central bank will play a stronger role in defending against risks, calling for more work on safeguarding the financial system and modernizing its regulatory framework.
Not to sound dismissive but we have heard that tune before. BTW, from about the beginning of the year China has tightened credit/liquidity to *curb* speculation and mal-investment but only last week it again injected liquidity fearing a crisis.

So the dance for stability continues ...
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

China's Economy Charges On as Officials Target the Risk 'Rhino

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... risk-rhino
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by amritk »

panduranghari wrote:Vish ji,

Canada opens up the door to the USA. Australia does not do so directly.
They do have the pretty sweet E3 visa.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by vish_mulay »

amritk wrote:
panduranghari wrote:Vish ji,

Canada opens up the door to the USA. Australia does not do so directly.
They do have the pretty sweet E3 visa.
Yes they do. Also one of the top 10 passport for visa free entry in more than 160 countries. I have come to one conclusion, there is no point in defending Aus on BRF. There is visceral hate for it and funny thing is that it's from people who have never been here. Life is too short to keep on repeating same things again and again.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

More US-China trade tensions expected after disappointing talks

Little progress was made between U.S. and Chinese officials on trade issues during official talks on Wednesday
The meeting's tepid tone could indicate further bilateral tensions ahead
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by panduranghari »

vish_mulay wrote: Yes they do. Also one of the top 10 passport for visa free entry in more than 160 countries. I have come to one conclusion, there is no point in defending Aus on BRF. There is visceral hate for it and funny thing is that it's from people who have never been here. Life is too short to keep on repeating same things again and again.
I suppose that bile was directed towards me. So let me answer your accusation.

1. I do not give 2 hoots for Australia
2. Been there more than a dozen times.
3. Just because things have gone unhinged in Australia for 25 straight years without any recession, doesnot mean it will continue so.
4. Australia is a poor nation except for natural resources, quite like Canada. However, they have ruined that natural wealth and for a repeat of the boom of the last 100 years, they have to do things that the Anglo-Saxons find unpalatable. You will read about it in your local newspaper soon.

5. Life is indeed short but in this instance I am virtually shorting the Aussie Dollar. There is a good downside risk with very limited upside potential in the medium term. Long term their future is uncertain.

Oh and one more thing. This visa free travel that the west loves to talk about and we Indians internalise it- I have a question- How many of those 160 countries have you visited? That is the essence of the matter.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by vish_mulay »

panduranghari wrote:
vish_mulay wrote: Yes they do. Also one of the top 10 passport for visa free entry in more than 160 countries. I have come to one conclusion, there is no point in defending Aus on BRF. There is visceral hate for it and funny thing is that it's from people who have never been here. Life is too short to keep on repeating same things again and again.
I suppose that bile was directed towards me. So let me answer your accusation.

1. I do not give 2 hoots for Australia
2. Been there more than a dozen times.
3. Just because things have gone unhinged in Australia for 25 straight years without any recession, doesnot mean it will continue so.
4. Australia is a poor nation except for natural resources, quite like Canada. However, they have ruined that natural wealth and for a repeat of the boom of the last 100 years, they have to do things that the Anglo-Saxons find unpalatable. You will read about it in your local newspaper soon.

5. Life is indeed short but in this instance I am virtually shorting the Aussie Dollar. There is a good downside risk with very limited upside potential in the medium term. Long term their future is uncertain.

Oh and one more thing. This visa free travel that the west loves to talk about and we Indians internalise it- I have a question- How many of those 160 countries have you visited? That is the essence of the matter.
Sheesh thin skin we have here. No sir it was not directed towards you but based on many conversations on BRF with many fellows who do have aversion towards Aus in general. As you pointed out you don't give 2 pennies about it, so why worry? Have curry na!
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Suraj »

No further talk of Australia here. Thanks.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... ebt-around
China Shuffles Its Debt Around
It's not deleveraging. It's changing who borrows.
...China is spreading the debt burden from corporations to households. Although this might forestall a domino effect should one of China's big companies start teetering, it's far from a long-term solution.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Suraj »

FOMO has never been good investing advice . On the contrary, it has often characterized manias .
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

China Is Taking On the ‘Original Sin’ of Its Mountain of Debt


Reducing leverage risks touted as top priority for regulators
Wealth management products, entrusted loan levels remain high

China’s much-vaunted campaign to tackle its leverage problem has captured headlines this year. But to understand why they’re taking on the challenge -- and the threat it could pose to the world’s second-largest economy -- you need to dig into the mountain.

Characterized in state media as the “original sin” of China’s financial system, leverage has swelled over the past decade -- partly because policy makers were trying to cushion a slowdown in growth from the old normal of 10 percent plus. What’s fueled the leverage has been a rapid expansion in household and corporate wealth looking for higher returns in a system where bank interest rates have been held down.

The unprecedented stimulus unleashed since 2008 effectively brought to life the “monster” China’s leadership is now trying to tackle, says Andrew Collier, managing director of Orient Capital Research Ltd. in Hong Kong and author of “Shadow Banking and the Rise of Capitalism in China.”

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Implicit backing from the central government meant borrowers had free license to take on debt.

“You basically have anybody selling anything they want as they think they can’t lose,” Collier said. Deleveraging -- championed by President Xi Jinping and the Communist Party Politburo in April -- hasn’t truly begun, as “they’re trying to forestall the pain as long as possible,” he said.

Read more here about how the focus of deleveraging has been shifting.

The equivalent of trillions of dollars are now held in all manner of assets in China, from high-yielding wealth management products to so-called entrusted investments.

Taking the heftiest piece of the leverage mountain first, wealth management products had a precipitous rise over the past several years.

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A way for borrowers who have trouble getting traditional bank loans to win funding, WMPs have grown in popularity as they typically offer savers much higher yields than banks offer on deposits.

WMPs are also a hit because they give lenders a way to keep loans off of their balance sheets, and to skirt regulatory requirements when channeling funds to borrowers, according to Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong.

The regulatory crackdown this year -- mostly in the form of more stringent guidelines on use of financial products -- has seen the amount of WMPs outstanding taper off from a peak in April, while yields on them have surged as providers competed for funds. In July, the bank watchdog is said to have told some lenders to cut the rates they offered on the products.

Turning to loans by banks to non-financial institutions, this is an area that’s yet to be dented much by what Xi has characterized as a de-risking drive. Yeung says the leadership’s campaign poses a “real test” for China and its regulators.

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“On the one hand, they don’t want this overall deleveraging to have any negative impact on real economic activities,” he said. “At the same time, they know if they don’t do it right now that it will become another financial bubble pretty soon.”

Since regulators ramped up their measures to curb financial leverage at the start of April, shadow banking has been in the cross-hairs.

The most popular forms include entrusted loan agreements (when a company lends money to another company with the bank as the middleman), trust loans (where banks use money raised from WMPs to invest in trust plans, with the proceeds eventually going to a corporate borrower) and bankers’ acceptances (a bank-backed guarantee for a future payment).

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Data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence tracking all three sectors show shadow banking still amounted to a record 26.7 trillion yuan as of the end of June.

Shadow financing is seen as one of the culprits behind China’s property-price surge, and regulators this year banned private-equity lending to developers for land purchases. Banks also were told in March to submit reports on their entrusted investments -- funds that Chinese lenders farm out to external asset managers -- and Beijing recently extended the deadline after some struggled to determine the scope of their exposures.

More directly connected to markets are repurchase agreements, where participants can get cash for set periods. A key tool for officials to rein in borrowing has been boosting funding costs in the money market. And indeed, the amount of repos outstanding has come off since reaching a peak at the end of June.

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The People’s Bank of China in March hiked rates on reverse-repurchase agreements and also raised the cost of medium-term loans. HSBC Holdings Plc analysts are among those seeing some further boost to money-market rates.

Negotiable certificates of deposit are relative minnows in China’s ocean of leverage, but they are a lifeline for smaller banks that have difficulty competing for savings against the big state lenders.

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NCDs morphed into a way for small banks to fund purchases of each other’s WMPs, with a circular arrangement developing whereby the banks selling the products would then channel the proceeds into the bond market, resulting in a mismatch between the shorter-term NCDs and other debt investments.

After dipping slightly in May as the deleveraging rhetoric intensified, the amount of NCDs outstanding has started rising again, reaching a record last month.

Earlier in the year, the PBOC was said to be mulling requiring lenders to re-classify NCDs as interbank liabilities, a move that would likely quell their growth because of limits on how much interbank debt banks are allowed to hold relative to their overall liabilities.

China’s monetary authorities for years focused on incubating innovation in the financial system, after decades when Soviet-style command and control was the model. Having successfully overseen an explosion in new types of credit, they are having to pivot into the role of gatekeepers and supervisors -- and to coordinate themselves better as risks pile up, according to Yeung and his colleagues at ANZ.

“This will certainly challenge the technical abilities as well as the mindset of regulators.”

— With assistance by Emma O'Brien, Eric Lam, Adrian Leung, Jun Luo, Jing Zhao, Helen Sun, and Xize Kang
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by VishalJ »



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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Rudradev »

Former Clinton-era official regrets welcoming PRC into WTO, recognizes Chinese economic threat.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/second-tho ... 1502234236

Second Thoughts on Trade With China
Inviting Beijing into the WTO seemed like a win-win. It didn’t turn out that way

William A Galston
WSJ Aug 9 2017


...Although Mr. Lighthizer is a long-term China hawk, developments in the seven years since he testified have led officials on both sides of the aisle to similar if more nuanced conclusions. Now the Trump administration is determined to press the issue. But to make progress toward a solution, the administration must focus on the core of the problem.

Currency manipulation to promote exports is yesterday’s issue. Much of the damage China has inflicted on the U.S. manufacturing sector will be hard to reverse, even with the aggressive use of existing antidumping statutes.

It is China’s techno-nationalism that poses the greatest threat to our future. In 2006 the Chinese government adopted a long-term plan to promote what it called “indigenous innovation.” As James McGregor, a leading expert on the Chinese economy, writes, China’s leading-edge firms were directed to obtain technology from their multinational partners through “co-innovation and re-innovation based on the assimilation of imported technologies.”

In practice, this meant giving American firms an offer Don Corleone would have recognized—either to “share their technologies with Chinese competitors—or refuse and miss out on the world’s fastest-growing market.” China’s ultimate goal is to use forced technology transfer to replace the U.S. as the world’s leading economy.

The Obama administration recognized this problem. In a November 2015 speech, Robert Holleyman II, then deputy trade representative, declared that China “continues to adopt measures to promote indigenous innovation that contradict its stated commitment to promote intellectual property protection and enforcement.” Earlier this year, as the Trump administration was getting under way, research centers in Europe and the U.S. issued scathing critiques of China’s signature technology initiative, “Made in China 2025,” which calls for Chinese companies to produce 40% of the components and materials in the manufacturing chain by 2020, and 70% by 2025. In the view of its foreign critics, says Mr. McGregor, this is a “protectionist blueprint aimed at gutting high-end manufacturing in the United States, Europe, Japan, and other developed economies.”

Existing legal tools may not suffice to end these discriminatory practices. Although the WTO prohibits mandatory technology transfers, the Chinese government’s position is that trading technology for market access is purely a business decision. Protectionist government purchases are a key part of China’s strategy. When China entered the WTO in 2001, it promised to sign the Government Procurement Agreement, which requires government purchases to be made on a nondiscriminatory and transparent basis, “as soon as possible.” Sixteen years later, this has not happened.

As a first step, the Trump administration should demand that the Chinese government sign the GPA without further delay
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

Trump moves to crack down on China trade practices

President Trump is getting tough on trade with China.

Trump signed a memorandum Monday that directs U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to determine whether an investigation is needed into alleged unfair Chinese trade practices. Shortly after Trump signed the directive, Lighthizer said his office will launch a probe and, "if needed, take action to preserve the future of U.S. industry."

The move represents the first step in a process that could allow Trump to impose tariffs on Chinese imports or other punishing trade actions.

"This is just the beginning," Trump said at the White House Monday. "We will defend our workers."


It's Trump's latest warning to China on trade, and it comes the same week that administration officials begin to renegotiate NAFTA, the free trade deal between the U.S., Mexico and Canada.

The new order focuses specifically on alleged Chinese theft of U.S. intellectual property, a complaint expressed by a wide array of U.S. corporations that do business in China.

China is accused of trying to take a short cut by spying, hacking or forcing companies to hand over their intellectual property, such as a patent on a software product.

Chinese laws require foreign firms in some industries, such as energy and autos, to form joint ventures with local partners, which often results in the transfer of technology to Chinese companies.

In a report published this year, the Commission on the Theft of American Intellectual Property named China as the main offender, estimating it costs the U.S. economy up to $600 billion a year.

Trump's memorandum comes as his administration also seeks cooperation with Chinese President Xi Jinping on North Korea's ongoing missile threats.

Some experts say the wording of the memorandum is watered down, reflecting how high a priority North Korea is for the administration. Trump's order did not direct Lighthizer to open an investigation. It directed Lighthizer to determine if an investigation is needed.

"For an administration that portrays itself as tough on trade, it keeps taking one baby step after another, and this is another one," says Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.


The softened language in Monday's order is the second time in as many weeks that Trump has agreed to changes to ease the potential backlash from China. Last week, the administration delayed the trade move in favor of securing China's support for a United Nations resolution imposing new sanctions on North Korea.

Related: Chinese media: Trump's trade probe will 'poison' relations

The final version of the memorandum reflected a desire to put some more distance between Trump and a potential investigation of Chinese trade practices, according to a senior administration official.

The Chinese Commerce Ministry on Tuesday warned that "any actions of trade protectionism from the U.S. side would be harmful to the bilateral trade and business relationship and the interests of companies on both sides."

It urged the U.S. to "respect objective facts and be cautious" or risk prompting Beijing to "respond with proper actions to firmly protect China's legitimate rights."


Trump routinely slams China's trade practices, and blames China for the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs. The U.S. had a $347 billion trade deficit with China last year, by far the largest deficit the U.S. has with any country. Trump wants to lower the deficit.

The memorandum was the administration's latest effort to get tough on longstanding Chinese trade abuses, but it also reflected a recognition inside the White House of bureaucratic processes and a complex international situation.

--Jethro Mullen and Nanlin Fang contributed to this article
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

There seem to be lot of industry and lobby in US who would prefer Tump does nothing on China when it comes to trade as it would impact them and the two way trade could be a deterrent.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by pankajs »

http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 497651.ece
China’s debt on a dangerous trajectory: IMF
“International experience suggests that China’s credit growth is on a dangerous trajectory, with increasing risks of a disruptive adjustment and/or a marked growth slowdown,” IMF experts wrote.

While the country’s near-term growth outlook firmed up, it is at the cost of “further large and continuous increases in private and public debt, and thus increasing downside risks in the medium term,” the report said.

The IMF maintained its forecast of 6.7% growth for this year, but the report warned that the country’s debt load could soar from around 235% of gross domestic product last year to more than 290% in 2022.

Debt-fuelled investment in infrastructure and real estate has underpinned China’s growth for years but Beijing has launched a crackdown over fears of a potential financial crisis.

The IMF recommended that Beijing press on with reforms to further boost consumption. “China has the potential to sustain strong growth over the medium term,” the report said.

“But to do this safely requires accelerating reforms to rebalance towards less credit-intensive growth, while using still-sizeable buffers to smooth the transition.”
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

Debt is dangerous to China , US , EU , Japan ......All these countries have growth based on debt growth in the past decade and eventually the day of reckoning will come
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

Bannon Breaks Silence: Vows "Economic War With China"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-1 ... ic-war-chi
“We’re at economic war with China,” he added. “It’s in all their literature. They’re not shy about saying what they’re doing. One of us is going to be a hegemon in 25 or 30 years and it’s gonna be them if we go down this path.”

“To me,” Bannon said, “the economic war with China is everything. And we have to be maniacally focused on that. If we continue to lose it, we're five years away, I think, ten years at the most, of hitting an inflection point from which we'll never be able to recover.”

Bannon’s plan of attack includes: a complaint under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act against Chinese coercion of technology transfers from American corporations doing business there, and follow-up complaints against steel and aluminum dumping.

“We’re going to run the tables on these guys. We’ve come to the conclusion that they’re in an economic war and they’re crushing us.”
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

How can India Take Advantage and Benefit from Economic War between US and China ?

Trump’s Strategist Reveals The Fine Print Of China Containment Strategy
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

So the guy who said he would take a tough action against China end up resigning , China must be relieved !
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

Jim Rickards -- 19 Aug 2017 -- Why Wealth Management Products in China is potential risk

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

Prominent Chinese economist warns country's debt becoming problem

https://www.rt.com/business/400137-chin ... n-problem/
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

WSJ: US decided to freeze assets of several Chinese companies
The US authorities have taken action against Chinese companies to increase pressure on Beijing and to get steps from it to suspend the DPRK nuclear missile program. This is reported by The Wall Street Journal with reference to sources.

According to the publication, it is about Dandong Zhicheng and four other companies, which the US authorities accuse of buying coal from the DPRK. In May, the General Prosecutor's Office has received US court order for the temporary seizure of assets of those companies under the pretext that they contribute to the financial inflow rocket and Pyongyang's nuclear program. Now, American banks, through which Dandong Zhicheng and the rest of the company carried out cash transactions, provided additional information to the prosecutor's office about this. According to the newspaper, this will allow the US authorities to freeze the assets of Chinese companies and increase pressure on Beijing.

As Kommersant reported, in early August it became known that the US government is exploring the possibility of starting a new trade war with China on the basis of American legislation of the 1970s. It was reported that unilateral punitive measures could be imposed against Beijing against the WTO rules - raising duties and denying licenses to engage in business in the United States.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

This is more about Economy so posting it here

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Austin »

China clamps down on buying spree in sports, movies and hotels

http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/18/investi ... index.html
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Prasad »

Economic strong-arming -
Image

Using eco strongarming tactics for political gains -
https://www.ft.com/content/f3c78afe-821 ... b903247afd
South Korean consumer groups bear brunt of China’s Thaad ire
The Thaad backlash has been limited to consumer goods because South Korean companies are crucial to the supply chains of many Chinese exporters, says Paul Choi, an analyst at brokerage CLSA. 

But that changed in March, when Beijing banned agents from selling group tours to South Korea. Chinese visits have plummeted, falling 66 per cent in June compared with the same month last year. Two of China’s largest online travel agents, Ctrip and Tuniu, say the ban is still in place.
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