PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

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Neshant
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Neshant » 15 Sep 2018 17:40

China is looking desperate in its trade war with the United States.
It is a battle that the US will win and big time.
Wall Street is betting on US winning this war and is in fact enthusiastic about taking the trade battle to the "enemy".

-------------------

China Pressures Wall Street To Intervene In Trade Fight

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09- ... rade-fight

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 15 Sep 2018 22:12

^^^ For every opinion there is a counter-opinion
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... with-trump

Of the many misperceptions driving Donald Trump’s trade policy, this may be the most dangerous: China isn’t desperate to maintain its interdependent relationship with the U.S. Rather, it’s a national objective to become more economically independent.

That’s a quite different China than the one in Trump’s imagination. To the White House, the country is still so reliant on the U.S. for growth and jobs that its leadership can be pounded into submission with tariffs. It’s only a question of when President Xi Jinping comes begging for mercy.

In real life, Trump’s tariffs are unlikely to inflict enough pain on China to compel Xi to make concessions. Its huge domestic market is becoming more important to Chinese growth. But beyond even that, Beijing’s entire economic strategy is designed to replace critical foreign technology and products with homegrown alternatives it can control. Simply, the Communist Party prefers Chinese to buy Xiaomi phones and Geely cars, not iPhones and Buicks.

That’s exactly what the much-feared “Made in China 2025” program is all about. The plan is to develop new, high-tech industries to compete with and eventually replace foreign rivals, at home and abroad. In that sense, it’s official policy to limit overseas involvement in the economy.

The trade war, therefore, comes as a “blessing in disguise,” as the China Daily put it. Trump’s trade sanctions have given Beijing another excuse to drag its feet on free-market reforms, to support local companies and to harass and exclude foreign business — all things Chinese leaders are inclined to do anyway.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 15 Sep 2018 22:17

Arima wrote:
pankajs wrote:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-consumption/in-chinas-debt-laden-xiamen-real-estate-boom-chokes-consumption-idUSKBN1KF0R6
In China's debt-laden Xiamen, real estate boom chokes consumption




in India a family with 10 k monthly income first of all will not get loan for 30 lac unless interest rate is like 3-4%. is that the case?

artificial low interest rate
plus jacked up rates causing housing bubble?

if so then we are in a tinder box waiting to implode.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -two-years

China’s home prices rose at the fastest pace in almost two years in August, adding to the likelihood of more government tightening in the housing market.

New-home prices gained 1.49 percent from the previous month, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data for 70 cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday. That compared with a 1.2 percent increase in July. It was the sixth straight monthly acceleration.


For JPMorgan’s Zhu, the biggest worry in the housing sector is the diminished role of market forces in pricing and sales, as the government’s “temporary” administrative restrictions become permanent. Tightening measures including purchase and resale curbs, increased down payments and price caps have been rolled out in 114 cities, according to brokerage CLSA Ltd. Most were imposed after March 2017, a CLSA presentation showed.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby disha » 17 Sep 2018 07:16

A_Gupta wrote:^^^ For every opinion there is a counter-opinion
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... with-trump


Gupta'ji, you just proved Neshant'ji's point with your counter-opinion.

Bloomberg is Wall Street's shill and anti-Trump.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 18 Sep 2018 00:57

OK, let's go to China directly henceforth as much as possible.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201809/1 ... 564d4.html
rade spat perils put spotlight on need for effective strategies
By Chen Jia | China Daily | Updated: 2018-09-17 05:25

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 18 Sep 2018 00:58

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201809/1 ... 5685b.html
Sino-EU alliance asked to defend multilateralism

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 18 Sep 2018 01:08

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... lion-crash
(back to bloomberg :) )
China’s sinking stock market reached an unwelcome milestone, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at the lowest level since 2014, erasing the last traces of its recovery from a boom that turned into a $5 trillion bust.

The Shanghai gauge dropped 1.1 percent to 2,651.79, below its January 2016 bottom. Back then, officials had just introduced and then hastily scrapped a disastrous circuit-breaker program as they grappled with one of the market’s worst-ever routs.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 19 Sep 2018 17:21

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-20-years
Jack Ma Warns Alibaba, China to Prepare for 20-Year Trade War

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 20 Sep 2018 21:12

https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... mp/570880/
Further complicating matters for Beijing is dissent within China’s elite about China’s future economic model. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) propaganda continues to depict U.S. demands as synonymous with a broader containment strategy designed to stymie China’s rise. However, many of the privatization reforms demanded by the U.S. are goals identified in China’s own official planning documents issued in 2014, but that President Xi Jinping has failed to meaningfully implement.
'

Privately, some Chinese scholars and elites dismayed with Xi’s strong focus on preserving the state’s role in the economy have told me they are cautiously supportive of Trump’s trade war, as they see America’s ire as their only recourse to pressure Xi to return to market liberalization. A burgeoning middle class in China, increasingly college educated, will seek service-industry jobs created primarily by China’s private sector.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby chetak » 20 Sep 2018 23:09

Neshant wrote:China is looking desperate in its trade war with the United States.
It is a battle that the US will win and big time.
Wall Street is betting on US winning this war and is in fact enthusiastic about taking the trade battle to the "enemy".

-------------------

China Pressures Wall Street To Intervene In Trade Fight

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09- ... rade-fight


Trump has got what he wanted from mexico, he will most probably get what he wants from canada, and china is in no state, either internally or externally, to get into a "trade" war with him.

They are guilty of doing for decades, exactly what Trump is accusing them of, which is stealing the US blind of her intellectual property.

Trump will set them back decades if china persists in going head to head with an adversary that no one can predict and one who plays by no known rules.

Looks like there is actually no free lunch.

India's next.

Trump is above all, a very shrewd disrupter and once you get past the smoke and the mirrors, which many people do not do, he is doing, rather forcefully, what any US president ought to have done, way, way earlier, with mexico, canada and china.

Now the EU is scared, both witless and shitless. The arabs are watching google eyed, iran is scared crapless and also confused.

no one knows whats coming next.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Neshant » 21 Sep 2018 04:51

chetak wrote:Trump has got what he wanted from mexico, he will most probably get what he wants from canada, and china is in no state, either internally or externally, to get into a "trade" war with him.

They are guilty of doing for decades, exactly what Trump is accusing them of, which is stealing the US blind of her intellectual property.

Trump will set them back decades if china persists in going head to head with an adversary that no one can predict and one who plays by no known rules.

Looks like there is actually no free lunch.

India's next.

Trump is above all, a very shrewd disrupter and once you get past the smoke and the mirrors, which many people do not do, he is doing, rather forcefully, what any US president ought to have done, way, way earlier, with mexico, canada and china.

Now the EU is scared, both witless and shitless. The arabs are watching google eyed, iran is scared crapless and also confused.

no one knows whats coming next.


+1.

One by one, Trump is taking all these countries to woodshed.
However he won't squeeze countries like Canada anywhere as hard as Mexico.
His main target is China which was dumb enough to declare their intent to replace the US as the world's foremost power and even issue a date by which they expect this to be so.
This at a time when guys like Peter Navarro and Michael Pillsbury are advising Trump on trade related matters.
Both have written books on how China sees trade with the US as a zero-sum game.

That previous US govt sat by and did nothing is testament to how incompetent they were at protecting America's trade and strategic interests.
The reality is if US does not do what its doing now on the trade front, it will cease to be the #1 power in about 20 years.
Trump is just the kind of bad medicine America needs to secure its interests.

Interestingly Michael Pillsbury recognized Modi to be the only leader in Asia to stand up to China despite the large disparity in power with China.
However expect no good will on that front.
You are right, India could well be next after China falls in line. The divide & conquer strategy was used on NAFTA to dilute the bargaining power of Canada & Mexico. No reason to believe it won't be used everywhere else.
There isn't anything India exports to US that is worth a damn. But US will ask for free reign of their MNCs in India nonetheless.
The key will be to find common interests with US industry and India's growth needs without turning the country into a slave plantation for foreign MNCs exploiting Indians like the erstwhile East India company.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby chetak » 21 Sep 2018 10:59

Neshant wrote:
chetak wrote:Trump has got what he wanted from mexico, he will most probably get what he wants from canada, and china is in no state, either internally or externally, to get into a "trade" war with him.

They are guilty of doing for decades, exactly what Trump is accusing them of, which is stealing the US blind of her intellectual property.

Trump will set them back decades if china persists in going head to head with an adversary that no one can predict and one who plays by no known rules.

Looks like there is actually no free lunch.

India's next.

Trump is above all, a very shrewd disrupter and once you get past the smoke and the mirrors, which many people do not do, he is doing, rather forcefully, what any US president ought to have done, way, way earlier, with mexico, canada and china.

Now the EU is scared, both witless and shitless. The arabs are watching google eyed, iran is scared crapless and also confused.

no one knows whats coming next.


+1.

One by one, Trump is taking all these countries to woodshed.
However he won't squeeze countries like Canada anywhere as hard as Mexico.
His main target is China which was dumb enough to declare their intent to replace the US as the world's foremost power and even issue a date by which they expect this to be so.
This at a time when guys like Peter Navarro and Michael Pillsbury are advising Trump on trade related matters.
Both have written books on how China sees trade with the US as a zero-sum game.

That previous US govt sat by and did nothing is testament to how incompetent they were at protecting America's trade and strategic interests.
The reality is if US does not do what its doing now on the trade front, it will cease to be the #1 power in about 20 years.
Trump is just the kind of bad medicine America needs to secure its interests.

Interestingly Michael Pillsbury recognized Modi to be the only leader in Asia to stand up to China despite the large disparity in power with China.
However expect no good will on that front.
You are right, India could well be next after China falls in line. The divide & conquer strategy was used on NAFTA to dilute the bargaining power of Canada & Mexico. No reason to believe it won't be used everywhere else.
There isn't anything India exports to US that is worth a damn. But US will ask for free reign of their MNCs in India nonetheless.
The key will be to find common interests with US industry and India's growth needs without turning the country into a slave plantation for foreign MNCs exploiting Indians like the erstwhile East India company.


Well done, saar.

As excellent an erudite executive summary as any that I have seen.

And IMVHO, every word of it is true.

Post truth wallas focus on trump's bedroom athletics and what have you but here is the president of a superpower who is able and willing to beard the lion in his lair.

This guy is the true black swan and none truer in recent memory. A method of sorts may gradually be becoming discernable amidst all the madness. No way that Xi saw this coming, or mexico, or canada, or europe, or even the pakis for that matter.

I now wonder how much of what he does publicly is simply play acting and assiduously staged to lull his adversaries into complaisance.

Do the amerikis prefer a "competing" superpower like russia where spheres of influence are well defined and mostly respected, with some occasional muscle flexing (afghanistan, etc) rather than a reckless hegemonistic upstart like china which is basically parasitic in nature, killing off its hosts even as it grows, devouring all in its path and does not know its place??

Does a bull in the china shop act count if you already own the china shop and the china in the shop is mostly non moving deadstock or dead inventory?? Tradewise and the historically and surreptitiously extended, but for the amerikis, the sly unwanted and unintended offshoots of the Marshall plan, the hugely expensive but guaranteed nuke umbrella, the unequal, unfair and unbalanced treaties with other countries, etc. Trump is basically trying to clear out all the dollar draining, local job sapping, off shore migrating ameriki owned manufacturing "dead stock" from america's trade and defence treaty warehouse.

He has also very forcefully demanded that the "off shore migrating ameriki owned manufacturing" be brought back to the US, pronto and that means more US jobs.

Just like buying a real estate property, demolishing the old building completely, and building a swanky new skyscraper, selling the space which now greatly enhances cash flow and pushes up the asset appreciation.

He has also correctly identified the countries freeloading off the ameriki markets, market infrastructures and stealing IP from the highly developed MIC, tech industry as well as grabbing for free the fruits from the huge investments in the vibrant and globally unmatched US educational ecosystem with its obsessive need to invent, patent and exploit scientific discoveries.

Trump has also demanded realistic repayment for the US provided services on the defence treaty front and not the "political" prices that hugely benefitting countries who had hitherto and rather contemptuously taken the US for granted, were rather reluctantly paying. He has put the UN and NATO on notice and the message has also gone loud and clear to the entire ummah.

weren't the very same inputs available to many a previous ameriki president, with the very same options also open to them and that too, much, very much before the arrival of Trump on the scene??

Xi's "president for life" position is turning most unexpectedly into a burden that is fast becoming untenable. The "trade war" has opened up multiple fronts against Xi, both internally and externally.

The single bullet solution is still a distinct possibility if his internal detractors gain the upper hand.

Que será, será, no??

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby chola » 21 Sep 2018 15:03

chetak wrote:
Do the amerikis prefer a "competing" superpower like russia where spheres of influence are well defined and mostly respected, with some occasional muscle flexing (afghanistan, etc) rather than a reckless hegemonistic upstart like china which is basically parasitic in nature, killing off its hosts even as it grows, devouring all in its path and does not know its place??


The USA prefers NO competing power. No hegemon would ever suffer a legitimate rival. Sparta didn’t with Athens. Rome didn’t with Carthage. The Amreekis brought down and broke the Russians when they were a threat.

Cheen is hardly killing off any hosts which is why Trump had to show the allies the velvet-gloved fist. Japan, Korea, Taiwan, ASEAN and OZ run massive trade surpluses with Cheen. Germany sells huge of amount of machinery and cars to Cheen. Volkswagen is the number one selling carmaker in the PRC for two decades now. Cheen is legimately the greatest driver of global growth for the past quarter century, especially in East and SE Asia.

We can’t let our own stereotypes of Cheen affect accurate assessment of this. Otherwise, we’ll end up in the same strait jacket as Nehru put us when he misjudged the situation in the Cold War.

Cheen if it capitulates will remain at number 2 with American standards — they will pay amreeki companies like Qualcomm for chips, end the quota for Hollywood, continue buying Boeing and GM and, most of all, allow amreeki penetration of their financial market.

If cheen does not capitualates, then we will have a world with split technological and financial camps, with chini standards in Cheen and possibly Russia and the OBOR nations and the Amreeki standard in the West. The rest of the world will be a battleground.

Then there are the allies like Japan, Germany and Korea whose MNCs can become immensely if not overwhelmingly powerful if they are able to sell to both. China has four times the population as the US. Its per capita income will grow. It is already the largest market in most sectors. Airbus selling to Cheen will crush Boeing who can’t. The greatest competitors to American firms come from its allies not cheen.

For India to grow in this landscape demands clear-headed thinking. I don’t think we plan at all with what happens if Cheen capitulates. If they give in to the US then what happens?

Cheen stays at number two with Amreeki investment pouring in to control their financials, more Amreeki products from top to bottom in Cheen and they stay on the American standards. No China chip, no China yuan-based trade and no China firewall to Amreeki silicon valley firms. This will be ChiMerica envisioned by Wall Street in the 1990s — “a China in our making.”

Where does that leave us? How do we approach the US as we grow? Will cheen as American-sanctioned number 2 be allowed to grow in our neighborhood in the bargain for not challenging the US in East Asia? Will this leave the global hierarchy locked in place denying any other upstart from climbing the ranks — US in 1st, US-dominated Cheen in 2nd, US-dominated Japan in 3rd and so forth?

There will many questions for us once there is no longer a need for America to balance Cheen’s rise with partners. We have not thought of this at all.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby chetak » 21 Sep 2018 16:01

chola wrote:
chetak wrote:
Do the amerikis prefer a "competing" superpower like russia where spheres of influence are well defined and mostly respected, with some occasional muscle flexing (afghanistan, etc) rather than a reckless hegemonistic upstart like china which is basically parasitic in nature, killing off its hosts even as it grows, devouring all in its path and does not know its place??


The USA prefers NO competing power. No hegemon would ever suffer a legitimate rival. Sparta didn’t with Athens. Rome didn’t with Carthage. The Amreekis brought down and broke the Russians when they were a threat.

Cheen is hardly killing off any hosts which is why Trump had to show the allies the velvet-gloved fist. Japan, Korea, Taiwan, ASEAN and OZ run massive trade surpluses with Cheen. Germany sells huge of amount of machinery and cars to Cheen. Volkswagen is the number one selling carmaker in the PRC for two decades now. Cheen is legimately the greatest driver of global growth for the past quarter century, especially in East and SE Asia.

We can’t let our own stereotypes of Cheen affect accurate assessment of this. Otherwise, we’ll end up in the same strait jacket as Nehru put us when he misjudged the situation in the Cold War.

Cheen if it capitulates will remain at number 2 with American standards — they will pay amreeki companies like Qualcomm for chips, end the quota for Hollywood, continue buying Boeing and GM and, most of all, allow amreeki penetration of their financial market.

If cheen does not capitualates, then we will have a world with split technological and financial camps, with chini standards in Cheen and possibly Russia and the OBOR nations and the Amreeki standard in the West. The rest of the world will be a battleground.

Then there are the allies like Japan, Germany and Korea whose MNCs can become immensely if not overwhelmingly powerful if they are able to sell to both. China has four times the population as the US. Its per capita income will grow. It is already the largest market in most sectors. Airbus selling to Cheen will crush Boeing who can’t. The greatest competitors to American firms come from its allies not cheen.

For India to grow in this landscape demands clear-headed thinking. I don’t think we plan at all with what happens if Cheen capitulates. If they give in to the US then what happens?

Cheen stays at number two with Amreeki investment pouring in to control their financials, more Amreeki products from top to bottom in Cheen and they stay on the American standards. No China chip, no China yuan-based trade and no China firewall to Amreeki silicon valley firms. This will be ChiMerica envisioned by Wall Street in the 1990s — “a China in our making.”

Where does that leave us? How do we approach the US as we grow? Will cheen as American-sanctioned number 2 be allowed to grow in our neighborhood in the bargain for not challenging the US in East Asia? Will this leave the global hierarchy locked in place denying any other upstart from climbing the ranks — US in 1st, US-dominated Cheen in 2nd, US-dominated Japan in 3rd and so forth?

There will many questions for us once there is no longer a need for America to balance Cheen’s rise with partners. We have not thought of this at all.


The amerikis have wide spread soft power which helps immensely with their power projections. The russians have a rather limited amount of the same commodity, in countries like India and some places in the gulf. The chinese practically have none at all.

India is a rising power, recently out of the bleeding clutches of a hegemonistic and ruthlessly exploitative, racist colonial power, because that's exactly what they are even today, no matter how the brits want to dress it up now. No amount of chinese rise will ever permit India to even allow the semblance of another colonial exploitation, in whatever form or shape or under whatever guise such an exploitative power seeks entry into India.

The same policy goes for the amerikis too, thus far and no further. Trade is OK but policy setting in India is a very big no-no.

The assiduous ameriki wooing of the Indian state, once again, is slowly leading up to a situation where the yankees will eventually ask for a firm commitment for Indian boots on the ground, under ameriki command, in whatever silly battle thay may be embroiled in at the time. Bush tried very hard with ABA but he was simply brushed aside. Their deep state will continue to persist on this front.

All this defence technology transfer BS is just that, its a blatant attempt to ensnare and hogtie India so that it is forced to become amenable to ameriki "suggestions". The pakis have long ago reached their sell by date, so a new "paki" has become essential but under the same terms and conditions.

Ameriki sanctions on china will be used to black list cheeni firms in the US and will soon be used against India to denude it of russkie arms and weapons so that we are left to the tender mercies of the cheeni paki combine and we have no viable options left but to swallow the ameriki bait and then the fish hook will lodge very firmly in our throat. This is how they ensnared the pakis decades ago.

Today, they are after much larger game and so need another brainless, obedient and sufficiently servile "non NATO ally", one who is preferably much larger, richer, more self-reliant in terms of MIL capacity and financial capability for payment for US weapons is concerned so that they can hunt or subdue their prey which is china.

Of course, it is merely coincidental that India has a ginormous market for ameriki goods and services.

Again, never to forget, in lockstep with the american soldier as always has been the bible thumping american clergyman. Two birds with one stone.

Also, it doesn't help us that their recently much beloved paki "non NATO ally" has flown the coop and is now comfortably ensconced in the currently welcoming lap of their enemy.

We may be forced to concede a bit to the US on trade but beyond that, we should be extremely cautious.
Last edited by chetak on 21 Sep 2018 16:37, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Prasad » 21 Sep 2018 16:35

There are multiple things at work here - as always.
Cheen wants to be equal and greater than khan. Cheen knows its getting stronger but is still far away from that place. Therefore it is doing many things to achieve that goal. Until trump, khan guv, industries and foreign policy guys were happy with cheen progress despite widespread blue collar grumblings of job-losses. These were well managed to blame the yevil yindoos. Cheen for all their faults clearly id'd lack of tech prowess as their problem. Other things incl soft power comes from the barrel of the tech gun. Here they blundered and got dealt a bad hand. One they made a huge pomp n show of their programs to get talent and pursue research and trump got elected. His doubling down on trade war has shown that cheen aren't big enough yet to go toe-to-toe with the amreeki financial muscle. But they also know that if they back down now and lose face, that will have massive repurcussions within cheen that khan is just waaaiting to exploit. Even now, all the hungama about uighurs is just that. pressure, not some altruistic aww poor lil minorities getting suppressed onlee. Yemen and yazidis got much worse but do you see khan media caring 2 bits? No.

Point to note - cheen understands that there is no strategic advantage of trying to contest current tech battles. While it'll result in widespread job generation which is always a plus, they'll not be able to fight tomorrow's battles. That is why you see all the massive funding into newer tech. And THAT is what is getting khan goat and why they're scared. Cos unlike the coldwar/roosis cheen has a lot more financial muscle and khan is interconnected with them industrially unlike with roos. Note the massive :(( :(( from si valley on all the tariffs.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby KrishnaK » 22 Sep 2018 01:28

chola wrote:
chetak wrote:
Do the amerikis prefer a "competing" superpower like russia where spheres of influence are well defined and mostly respected, with some occasional muscle flexing (afghanistan, etc) rather than a reckless hegemonistic upstart like china which is basically parasitic in nature, killing off its hosts even as it grows, devouring all in its path and does not know its place??


The USA prefers NO competing power. No hegemon would ever suffer a legitimate rival. Sparta didn’t with Athens. Rome didn’t with Carthage. The Amreekis brought down and broke the Russians when they were a threat.

Cheen is hardly killing off any hosts which is why Trump had to show the allies the velvet-gloved fist. Japan, Korea, Taiwan, ASEAN and OZ run massive trade surpluses with Cheen. Germany sells huge of amount of machinery and cars to Cheen. Volkswagen is the number one selling carmaker in the PRC for two decades now. Cheen is legimately the greatest driver of global growth for the past quarter century, especially in East and SE Asia.

We can’t let our own stereotypes of Cheen affect accurate assessment of this. Otherwise, we’ll end up in the same strait jacket as Nehru put us when he misjudged the situation in the Cold War.

Cheen if it capitulates will remain at number 2 with American standards — they will pay amreeki companies like Qualcomm for chips, end the quota for Hollywood, continue buying Boeing and GM and, most of all, allow amreeki penetration of their financial market.

If cheen does not capitualates, then we will have a world with split technological and financial camps, with chini standards in Cheen and possibly Russia and the OBOR nations and the Amreeki standard in the West. The rest of the world will be a battleground.

Then there are the allies like Japan, Germany and Korea whose MNCs can become immensely if not overwhelmingly powerful if they are able to sell to both. China has four times the population as the US. Its per capita income will grow. It is already the largest market in most sectors. Airbus selling to Cheen will crush Boeing who can’t. The greatest competitors to American firms come from its allies not cheen.

For India to grow in this landscape demands clear-headed thinking. I don’t think we plan at all with what happens if Cheen capitulates. If they give in to the US then what happens?

Cheen stays at number two with Amreeki investment pouring in to control their financials, more Amreeki products from top to bottom in Cheen and they stay on the American standards. No China chip, no China yuan-based trade and no China firewall to Amreeki silicon valley firms. This will be ChiMerica envisioned by Wall Street in the 1990s — “a China in our making.”

Where does that leave us? How do we approach the US as we grow? Will cheen as American-sanctioned number 2 be allowed to grow in our neighborhood in the bargain for not challenging the US in East Asia? Will this leave the global hierarchy locked in place denying any other upstart from climbing the ranks — US in 1st, US-dominated Cheen in 2nd, US-dominated Japan in 3rd and so forth?

There will many questions for us once there is no longer a need for America to balance Cheen’s rise with partners. We have not thought of this at all.


The main grouse is not China overtaking the US, but how it goes about achieving that end - state capitalism. The reason the Soviet Union was considered so dangerous is the same reason Nehru said India would have trouble competing with China - a totalitarian state will always have more leeway in appropriating state resources and allocating it for some purpose - arms in the case of the Soviet Union which spent roughly 1/3rd of its GDP on armaments or manufacturing in the case of China which will now allocate the massive financial capacity towards Made in China 2025. Governments in free market economies, even those in the developed west, simply do not have the same capacity to spend - they can only spend or mis-spend as the case may be, govt revenues, not people's savings.

The EU & Japan, India have more in common with the US and will end up finding accommodation with the it, which will mean roughly same tariffs and behaviour towards China. There will be no major cases of Airbus getting to sell to China while Boeing can't. The current administration's fight with everyone has muddied waters, but it will converge to where China finds itself on one side, mostly alone.

As far as India, it'll end up growing like the US did, a consumption driven economy with well developed financial markets due to the need for debt/market allocation of resources as against allocation by the state. Rise by one country naturally leads to resistance by others. We've seen one case where this can be alleviated by access to market. So long as India's rise is market driven and it uses it's consumer & financial markets as the means to modulating the resistance against it, it'll be mostly smooth sailing.

Added later - It is less important what the US, EU or anyone else thinks of India compared to what Bangladesh & Indonesia think. These massive countries that are close geographically should be turned in to allies centered around the Indian market. The day India achieves the capacity to draw large populations at its rim into a win-win trade based alliance, the rest will follow.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby JayS » 22 Sep 2018 02:04

Mod Note: Please stick to the thread topic.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Nishn » 22 Sep 2018 05:33

Beautiful commentary Gentlemen. Compliments to Chetak, Chola, et all.
How I wished the intellectual depth of this forum transposed to the main stream media and it was spread far and wide to the public at large, but unfortunately no. How did those characters even get their jobs we wonder. Sorry back to the PRC thread....

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby chola » 22 Sep 2018 06:18

KrishnaK wrote:
chola wrote:
The EU & Japan, India have more in common with the US and will end up finding accommodation with the it, which will mean roughly same tariffs and behaviour towards China. There will be no major cases of Airbus getting to sell to China while Boeing can't. The current administration's fight with everyone has muddied waters, but it will converge to where China finds itself on one side, mostly alone.



The US is already in a trade war with Cheen! By the time “EU & Japan, India“ get in the act, Cheen might have capitulated to the US already. They don’t need anyone else. That is my point. Cheen submits to the US to stay at number 2 — no longer challenging the US at 1. No one else will have any leverage since the USA are going all out to win this on its own.

And the chances are it WILL win without any need for help what so ever. That is the world we do not plan for.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby yensoy » 22 Sep 2018 08:25

^^^^ Help comes in various forms. First, don't forget that the core issue the US has with China is bilateral one with the US holding the good cards, so if it is plays these cards right yes it can win. However as the trade war unfolds, if its other allies/partners can step in and blunt the negative effects to the American economy, that also helps the US. Support at multilateral forums is a help too. So the US is likely to win this war that it took up of its own choosing and we are bit players here, but many are helping (for self-interest of course) and many stand to benefit when the US wins because the counterparty, China, has pissed off more than the US alone.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby chola » 22 Sep 2018 09:06

yensoy wrote:^^^^ Help comes in various forms. First, don't forget that the core issue the US has with China is bilateral one with the US holding the good cards, so if it is plays these cards right yes it can win. However as the trade war unfolds, if its other allies/partners can step in and blunt the negative effects to the American economy, that also helps the US. Support at multilateral forums is a help too. So the US is likely to win this war that it took up of its own choosing and we are bit players here, but many are helping (for self-interest of course) and many stand to benefit when the US wins because the counterparty, China, has pissed off more than the US alone.


The issue is that kind of “help” gains the “helpers” nothing because the USA sees itself as the one taking on and winning over Cheen alone.

Cheen will give in the US but not anyone else. Because only the Americans will be at the table. It will open the chinis up to more American investment, more American products and freer market which ironically might fuel even greater growth for Cheen. What it means though is they will give up pursuing their own technology and currency transactions. No yuan-based oil contracts, no China computer chip and no firewall against FANG.

For anyone outside the West and Japan, ChiMerica will lock global hierarchy in place. No rivalry with US over number one might mean Cheen is free to venture elsewhere.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby nam » 22 Sep 2018 12:42

The power of US is it's ability to dominate innovation. In every field possible. It is the 6000 pound gorrilla.

It allows free access to it's markets AND it is a an exporting giant. Till date, no country has been able to compete with American companies in innovation in the American market. It dominates technology, there by trade in the premium space, there by the financial system (again using tech).
Even tech giant like Japan can only beat the American car manufacturers. It also has enough natural resources.

So fundamentally US has the perfect economic model. It has the greatest ability to make others dependent on it.

Chinis cannot win against US by being allowed to export nappies and headphones. What trump is doing is exactly the Achilles heel of Chinese model.

We can also make the Chinis behave by using the Trump model. We are after all it's second largest export market by country. :D

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby KrishnaK » 22 Sep 2018 12:57

chola wrote:
KrishnaK wrote:


The US is already in a trade war with Cheen! By the time “EU & Japan, India“ get in the act, Cheen might have capitulated to the US already. They don’t need anyone else. That is my point. Cheen submits to the US to stay at number 2 — no longer challenging the US at 1. No one else will have any leverage since the USA are going all out to win this on its own.

And the chances are it WILL win without any need for help what so ever. That is the world we do not plan for.

Emperor Xi can't throw in the towel and continue being an emperor. The CPC depends enormously on the legitimacy that its performance provides. If it fails, China fails. In comparison, when any political party in a democracy fails, that particular party and/or its leader fails. Xi can't capitulate abjectly simply because it could mean he gets purged or the PRC collapses - glasnost/perestroika redux. He might make compromises, but that won't take anything away from what makes China so threatening - a totalitarian state that has the capacity to arrogate the factors of production and channel it to suit its stated goals. There's only one way in which China can capitulate that resolves this competition - the PRC as we know ceases to exist.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby chetak » 22 Sep 2018 13:58

chola wrote:
yensoy wrote:^^^^ Help comes in various forms. First, don't forget that the core issue the US has with China is bilateral one with the US holding the good cards, so if it is plays these cards right yes it can win. However as the trade war unfolds, if its other allies/partners can step in and blunt the negative effects to the American economy, that also helps the US. Support at multilateral forums is a help too. So the US is likely to win this war that it took up of its own choosing and we are bit players here, but many are helping (for self-interest of course) and many stand to benefit when the US wins because the counterparty, China, has pissed off more than the US alone.


The issue is that kind of “help” gains the “helpers” nothing because the USA sees itself as the one taking on and winning over Cheen alone.

Cheen will give in the US but not anyone else. Because only the Americans will be at the table. It will open the chinis up to more American investment, more American products and freer market which ironically might fuel even greater growth for Cheen. What it means though is they will give up pursuing their own technology and currency transactions. No yuan-based oil contracts, no China computer chip and no firewall against FANG.

For anyone outside the West and Japan, ChiMerica will lock global hierarchy in place. No rivalry with US over number one might mean Cheen is free to venture elsewhere.


At best, the US has bought itself a few decades, give or take.

However, the loss of face for the chinese is a massive blow and unforgiving as they are wont to be, they will wait and bide their time. Even with all their massive and extensive weaponry along with their huge standing armies, navy and airforce, not to mention their ginormous foreign exchange reserves and stupendous financial muscle, they were unable to deter trump. Man, that's got to hurt.

The fragility of their system has been exposed by trump. The dodgy chinese accounting practices, their devious and often hyped numbers which were simply taken at face value and seldom questioned by eager gora hordes scrambling to invest/relocate into china for manufacturing are slowly coming home to roost.

All these inherent weaknesses, so far papered over, is what is causing the relatively muted response of the hans and they are hamstrung at this time because their options are very limited.

They are not going anywhere and neither are the amerikis, and every dog has its day.

The very real fear of trump is also keeping the usually voluble and ever moralizing Indians quiet.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Neshant » 22 Sep 2018 14:36

chetak wrote:At best, the US has bought itself a few decades, give or take.

The fragility of their system has been exposed by trump. The dodgy chinese accounting practices, their devious and often hyped numbers which were simply taken at face value and seldom questioned by eager gora hordes scrambling to invest/relocate into china for manufacturing are slowly coming home to roost.

All these inherent weaknesses, so far papered over, is what is causing the relatively muted response of the hans and they are hamstrung at this time because their options are very limited.

They are not going anywhere and neither are the amerikis, and every dog has its day.


+1

We'll soon find out if Trump has caught the Chinis at a critical juncture.
If their economy and industry is heavily leveraged, this trade war is going to wreck them from the inside out as leveraged positions implode.
Its almost as if Trump knows they will not agree to his terms and is eager to expand this trade war against them.

Chinis were foolish to go around declaring their intent to displace the US as the #1 global power.
Now that Trump has found a way to nail them, he's not going to let up on this angle.
And that is even if they agree to his trade terms.

The very real fear of trump is also keeping the usually voluble and ever moralizing Indians quiet.


I'll take the credit for that.

I coined the term "Beware the Danda" when it comes to Trump.
I even posted the image below to drive home the point.

Image

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Neshant » 22 Sep 2018 15:03

The global markets have already placed their bets on US winning this trade war.
That alone makes it impossible to fight the US economically.

As for a shooting war, if China starts a war with Taiwan hoping to draw the US into a battle close to its shores, its maritime trade globally will cease to exist followed by the bulk of its export economy.
This raises a question - where would all those export industries flee to?
Maybe African br0thas will be the end beneficiaries of these manufacturing jobs fleeing China & Asia in general.

------

A Path To War? China Cancels US Trade Talks As 'Skirmish' Escalates

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09- ... -escalates

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby nam » 22 Sep 2018 15:28

You don't start a war, you don't hope to win. Big powers don't fight wars with other big nations.

Just like Russia did in Syria, if the Chinis was to go Rambo, it will be against some hapless nation, for whom nobody cares.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 23 Sep 2018 06:54

The Spectator Index
The Spectator Index
@spectatorindex
·
13m
Chinese living in extreme poverty

1990: 755.8 million
2015: 10 million

(World Bank)

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby CalvinH » 23 Sep 2018 07:08

There cant be a war. Chinese aint that foolish. Propaganda aside they know they have no capability to wage a war on US.

I also don't think that Chinese will back off soon and openly. A large part of their arrogance comes from the fact that they believe that they will be superpower #1. They got high on their own supply and were not prepared for being called out sooner. They have unfair trade practices going on for decade plus, have terrorized their neighbors across South China sea and asserted themselves everywhere, and US did nothing. They had no reason to believe Trump will take them on. Especially when the domestic media keeps his hands full all the time.

China had an option to go along with everyone and become a rich first world nation like South Korea or Japan. They have chosen this path of confrontation themselves.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby chola » 23 Sep 2018 07:41

CalvinH wrote:There cant be a war. Chinese aint that foolish. Propaganda aside they know they have no capability to wage a war on US.

I also don't think that Chinese will back off soon and openly. A large part of their arrogance comes from the fact that they believe that they will be superpower #1. They got high on their own supply and were not prepared for being called out sooner. They have unfair trade practices going on for decade plus, have terrorized their neighbors across South China sea and asserted themselves everywhere, and US did nothing. They had no reason to believe Trump will take them on. Especially when the domestic media keeps his hands full all the time.

China had an option to go along with everyone and become a rich first world nation like South Korea or Japan. They have chosen this path of confrontation themselves.


They still might become a first world nation like South Korea or Japan by capitulating. Remember the fight is mainly about Cheen’s “Make in China 2025” which means chini standards in China instead of American standards in China (American chips, American airliners, etc.)

Trump makes them back down and they will become like SoKo and Japan and work within the US structure without contesting the top spot. They will accede to US demands to abandon “2025” only if they can save their trade surplus otherwise it won’t be worth it to them.
Last edited by chola on 23 Sep 2018 07:45, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Prasad » 23 Sep 2018 07:43

Don't see that happening. They will pipe down to soothe Trump but won't give up that easily. If the Dems come back, they won't need to.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby ArjunPandit » 23 Sep 2018 08:37

Neshant wrote:The global markets have already placed their bets on US winning this trade war.
That alone makes it impossible to fight the US economically.

As for a shooting war, if China starts a war with Taiwan hoping to draw the US into a battle close to its shores, its maritime trade globally will cease to exist followed by the bulk of its export economy.
This raises a question - where would all those export industries flee to?
Maybe African br0thas will be the end beneficiaries of these manufacturing jobs fleeing China & Asia in general.

------

A Path To War? China Cancels US Trade Talks As 'Skirmish' Escalates

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09- ... -escalates

african bro's dont have the stability and skilled manpowa, there is one logical place where people give anything to do a job....

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Neshant » 23 Sep 2018 09:38

ArjunPandit wrote:african bro's dont have the stability and skilled manpowa, there is one logical place where people give anything to do a job....


The stability is what the US can enforce.
And the skilled man powa is where Indian coolies come in.
They have the natural resources right there.
And unlike China, markets close to them (US, India) will readily absorb the manufactured output.

However for such a vision to unfold, the African Union needs to be strengthened and reach a long term understanding with the US.
Once that understanding is reached, IMF dogs can be called off and real development can begin.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby ArjunPandit » 23 Sep 2018 09:57

well the kind of companies that have appetite for the uncertainty and ability to impose such order are typically raw commodities based companies (which happen to be red in general), blue economy typically prefers stability

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Neshant » 23 Sep 2018 10:09

Africa sits in the middle of 3 or 4 large markets. US, EU, India & Middle East.
It does not make economic sense to ship raw materials thousands of kilometers from Africa to China to be manufactured and then again thousands of kilometers from China to Europe/Middle East/US.
Much more cost effective to manufacture it in Africa itself and ship it from there.

However manufacturing is one half of the equation.
The other half is having ready access to those large markets near Africa to sell those products.

India would be OK with a US led initiative to set up manufacturing in Africa with both US & India absorbing the continent's output.
India rather run a trade deficit with African br0thas than with China.
We'd have stuff to both buy and sell to them to balance off that trade and so would the US.

China does not have that advantage.
Which country wants an even bigger deficit with China or wants to see China ruling the world economically?
If they try to use Africa as a manufacturing base, markets around Africa will actively resist the absorption of those products.
That effectively limits China's presence in Africa.

Anyway, all this is still sometime down the road even if China is trying to drown some of the br0thas in perpetual debt with OBOR ahead of time.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby ArjunPandit » 23 Sep 2018 10:14

Neshant wrote:Africa sits in the middle of 3 or 4 large markets. US, EU, India & Middle East.
It does not make economic sense to ship raw materials thousands of kilometers from Africa to China to be manufactured and then again thousands of kilometers from China to Europe/Middle East/US.
Much more cost effective to manufacture it in Africa itself and ship it from there.


had that been the case no supply chain would have shifted out of US/Europe to any other country. Production/Services move because of
1. cost reduction 2. value addition 3. at comparable levels of risk

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Neshant » 23 Sep 2018 11:02

ArjunPandit wrote:
Neshant wrote:Africa sits in the middle of 3 or 4 large markets. US, EU, India & Middle East.
It does not make economic sense to ship raw materials thousands of kilometers from Africa to China to be manufactured and then again thousands of kilometers from China to Europe/Middle East/US.
Much more cost effective to manufacture it in Africa itself and ship it from there.


had that been the case no supply chain would have shifted out of US/Europe to any other country. Production/Services move because of
1. cost reduction 2. value addition 3. at comparable levels of risk



It shifted out because China offered a low cost manufacturing destination.
That was back when China posed no military or technological threat to the US.

Cost reduction is going, going, gone.
Value addition is proven to be negative with hollowing out of US manufacturing sector and stealing IP.
And risk has gone through the roof.

That being said, US has thus far exchanged mostly IOUs for real goods from China so it hasn't been all down hill.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 23 Sep 2018 11:16

America’s real trade problems are with China: David Stockman


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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby chola » 23 Sep 2018 16:36

For those who say the trade attacks on the allies is unnecessary. They most certainly are necessary.

http://www.atimes.com/article/did-trump-just-kill-the-us-auto-industry/

American carmakers are missing their chance to gain a foothold in the market of the future, and investors have noticed

By DAVID P. GOLDMAN SEPTEMBER 22, 2018 5:15 AM (UTC+8)

Economic historians will cite July 9, 2018 as the date on which the US lost the trade war with China – before the war began.

That was when Germany’s top manufacturing companies – Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, BASF and Siemens – announced tens of billions of dollars of new investments in China as Chinese Premier Li Keqiang posed for a photo op with German Chancellor Merkel in Berlin.

BMW will expand its joint venture with Brilliance Auto to produce 519,000 vehicles a year. It also set up a joint venture to produce an electric version of the Mini together with Great Wall Auto. And it agreed to buy US$4.7 billion worth of batteries from Chinese producer CATL, which just announced a new plant in southern Germany. Volkswagen earlier this year announced that it would invest US$18 billion in China by 2022 and construct six plants to build electric vehicles. BMW will move some of its SUV production out of its South Carolina plant in response to auto tariffs.

Since then the prices of US automakers have tanked, and German auto stocks have rallied. The future of the auto industry lies in electric vehicles, for which China will be the world’s largest market by far.

...

“For the first batch of import tariffs ($50 billion from each side), the key beneficiaries in Europe from substituting Chinese exports into the US would be general purpose machinery. As for China’s market, European car manufacturers, followed by aircraft and aerospace, would be the key winners from potentially replacing the US exporters…For the second batch of import tariffs (on $200 billion from US side and $60 billion from China’s side), Europe’s potential gains in the US are extended to many more sectors, including office, accounting & computing machinery as well as furniture […] European gains in China will also be more widespread, covering sectors such as medical & precision products, basic chemicals and general purpose machinery.”



This will happen in industry by industry, sector by sector where Cheen is often the world’s largest market. Not just the Europeans, Samsung is already gearing up investment and production to replace the US in the chini chip market. Oz is angling for the massive void of animal feed left by the tariffs on American soybean. Toyota is going after GM’s number two position in the chini market (after VW.)

UNLESS the US makes it clear that they are not going into this trade war just so the allies can benefit.

That is where the tariff attacks on Canada, Europe, SoKo and Mexico (Japan is next) come in. A line has to be set that the US will go after them too if they try gaming this.

But the Mexico resolution also tells them that compromise is possible between friends.

This is a powerful and sophisticated game played by Trump not a scattershot approach hitting innocent bystanders. The steel and aluminum hits on Europe, Japan and SoKo were warnings before the main tussle began with Cheen.

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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Postby Austin » 23 Sep 2018 18:04

Trump vision of trade war is an impulsive behaviour meant for his constituents who will vote for him.

For as long as he gets the desired result for 2018 and then in 2020 that is what he is aiming at.

He got in few guys in his team who were known trade hawks. Anti WTO folks and is conducting a terror against its allies and China

Once he wins the 2020 election or looses it we will see this war will loose its steam could be earlier if US stock market collapses in a big way in that case he will loose the election.

This is just a very short term strategy to win the next election and make his promise look good to those who voted him.

Once dems come to power China will be their next chum Friends


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