Page 32 of 32

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 28 May 2019 17:50
by A_Gupta
One more of those China is cooking the books stories from Bloomberg.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... tle-secret
China Has a Dirty $1 Trillion Stimulus Secret
Another economy-boosting infrastructure binge is afoot, but you won’t find it reflected in the fiscal deficit target.
China has stacked up almost 30 trillion yuan of LGFV debt, according to HSBC Holdings Plc, or roughly 30 percent of GDP. Once LGFV debt and special purpose bonds are accounted for, Beijing year after year is racking up a fiscal deficit in the neighborhood of 8 percent of GDP, more than twice the official figure, the bank estimates.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 28 May 2019 23:23
by ArjunPandit
Are you bored, want some fun for free...look no further than this

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1152120.shtml

An internet user with the pseudonym Moka, with more than 242,000 followers on Weibo, slammed FedEx China Thursday for confiscating chipset products delivered from a factory in the island of Taiwan to Huawei's office on the Chinese mainland.


funnier
An insider with close knowledge of the incidents told the Global Times on Tuesday that FedEx's behavior violates business cooperation principles and may also hurt its credibility.

funniest
"It's disgusting. An international express company is becoming a tool of the US government. It's surely a US firm," said the insider, who refused to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

who said only chinese could joke

Later in the day, FedEx said on its official Sina Weibo account in response to the incident that "we value all of our customers who entrust more than 15 million packages a day with us."

"We regret that this isolated number of Huawei packages were inadvertently misrouted, and confirm that we were not requested by any external party to divert these packages which are in the process of being returned to the shippers," the company said.



It doesnt end here guys

"Errors only happened to Huawei among 15 million packages a day… interesting," commented a user.

"Isolated issue? All 4 packages were destined for Huawei. The FedEx business should be terminated in Asia," posted a user on Twitter.

"The package is from Japan to China, totally nothing to do with the US. Today they can divert Huawei's package. Tomorrow they can divert yours." tweeted another.



Shen Yi, head of Fudan University's Cyberspace Governance Research Institute, said that "the incident has left the Chinese public and firms with no choice but to suspect that FedEx is connected with US intelligence agencies."

Cyber space governance insti in china, we should also have Islamophobia prevention insti and democracy prevention isnti there...also pakistan can have world anti terror (Wat) insti there

Fang noted that the US private sector, government and even the military have formed a complex "to act jointly."

how can they, only we can do it

"In the modern world of globalization, this kind of complex, with a long-arm jurisdiction approach, is very destructive" for countries and companies around the globe "if the complex extended its approach beyond the territory of the US," Fang said.

Ok i need to smoke what fang is smoking, chola, UBji do you know that??

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 31 May 2019 23:13
by A_Gupta
https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... le/589423/
The Migrant Workers Behind China’s Economic Miracle Are Miserable
Chinese workers who moved from the countryside to urban areas have found social mobility to be impossible.
China has freed more than 850 million people from absolute poverty in recent decades, a period in which the ruling Communist Party made a simple pledge to its population: Avoid interfering with the political order, and prosperity will be yours. This contract worked for China’s middle class, which grew from 29 million in the 1990s to some 531 million in 2013. In 2019, however, Beijing’s mission has become more complicated, and Liu’s story is typical of the 228 million migrants who work in China’s cities today. These workers, known as nongmingong, have seen their wealth increase, but their place in Chinese society is largely unclear. China’s cities are becoming more and more hostile to the people on whose backs they were built, and the nongmingong are not feeling the gains of the government’s promise.


Migrants also face a formidable set of institutional barriers in their attempts at success in the city. Chinese society is organized in a system of household registration known as hukou. If you are born in a rural area, it is usually impossible to change to an urban hukou regardless of how long you work in the city, a system that bars migrants from certain jobs and prevents access to health care and education for their children. It dates from pre-Communist China, but in the second half of the 20th century, it became so decisive in determining life opportunities that it has been compared to the caste system. A 2018 study in Baoding found that migrant workers who, in some cases, had lived in the city for decades had little emotional attachment to it, and their lack of security and happiness was central to this feeling. Researchers found that limitations on their hukou rights had determined much of their outlook on their lives.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 01 Jun 2019 21:04
by A_Gupta
One more of those:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/falling ... cture.html
An under-the-radar way to measure economic growth in China is painting a bleak picture

Diesel demand in China fell 14% and 19% in March and April respectively, reaching levels not seen in a decade, according to data compiled by Wells Fargo.

China said in April its economy grew by 6.4% in the first quarter of 2019. However, global investors and economists have been skeptical of China’s official economic figures for years as they believe they overstate how much China’s economy is growing.

China apparent diesel demand 2006 to present
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, Bloomberg
Image

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 02 Jun 2019 01:46
by A_Gupta
If true, a game-changer.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... eakthrough
China cracks cheap lithium production in electric car breakthrough
The production of lithium – an essential ingredient in batteries for electric cars – has become easier and significantly cheaper, thanks to a technological breakthrough, just as US concerns about China’s dominance in the supply chain are on the rise.
The cost of extracting the mineral has been slashed to a “record low” of 15,000 yuan (US$2,180) per tonne by the new process, a Chinese government report said.

That compares to an international price for lithium ranging from US$12,000 to US$20,000 per tonne – and a long-term contract price of about US$17,000 – over the past year, according to some industrial estimates.

The precise production costs of lithium are a closely guarded business secret, but industry insiders interviewed by the South China Morning Post agreed that the rate quoted in the report could be considered one of, if not the lowest, around.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 02 Jun 2019 09:39
by yensoy
New process = old process + government subsidy

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 02 Jun 2019 10:47
by chola
A_Gupta wrote:One more of those:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/28/falling ... cture.html
An under-the-radar way to measure economic growth in China is painting a bleak picture

China apparent diesel demand 2006 to present
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, Bloomberg
Image


Trump is killing them. Let's hope they have the balls to continue fighting and weakening.

A full chini capitulation that allows them restart growth albeit with more Amreeki penetration and control of their market won't help us that much.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 07 Jun 2019 11:11
by Austin
China Has Lots of Policy Room if Trade War Worsens, PBOC Chief Says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -gang-says

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 11 Jun 2019 10:57
by Austin
Trump: If President Xi does not attend G-20, more China tariffs will go into effect immediately

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/10/trump-i ... ately.html

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 11 Jun 2019 14:24
by vimal
Austin wrote:Trump: If President Xi does not attend G-20, more China tariffs will go into effect immediately

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/10/trump-i ... ately.html


Wow! That's like saying "Xi is mah bitch" lol!

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 18 Jun 2019 11:25
by Austin
Huawei says US ban will cost it $30 billion in lost sales over two years

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/17/tech ... index.html

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 14 Jul 2019 06:37
by g.sarkar
https://www.spiegel.de/international/bu ... 75643.html
The World's Bank
Vast Chinese Loans Pose Risks to Developing World

China is the largest creditor in the world, funding infrastructure projects in the developing world in exchange for access to raw materials. A new study shows that the risk of a new debt crisis is significant.
By Bartholomäus Grill, Michael Sauga and Bernhard Zand July 04, 2019
The future rail link cuts its way through the jungles of Laos for over 400 kilometers. Soon, trains will be rolling through -- over bridges, through tunnels and across dams built just for the line, which runs from the Chinese border in the north to the Laotian capital of Vientiane on the Mekong River. After five years of construction, the line is set to go into service in 2021. And the Chinese head of one of the sections has no doubt that it will be finished on time. "Our office alone employs 4,000 workers," he says. There is also no lack of money: The Chinese government in Beijing has earmarked around 6 billion dollars for the project and has recently become both Laos's largest creditor and most significant provider of development aid.
China, after all, isn't just directly financing 70 percent of the new train lain, it is also building dams, schools, military hospitals and has even launched a communications satellite into space for the country. In April, Beijing loaned Laos another 40 million dollars for road construction -- a credit that was provided through the multilateral Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank based in Beijing, a financial institution that China established as an alternative to Western development banks. If Hong Kong is included, China isn't just the largest creditor in Laos, but in the entire world. Beijing's foreign loans dominate global markets almost to the same degree as its toys, smartphones and electric scooters do. From Kenya to Montenegro, from Ecuador to Djibouti, roads, dams and power plants are being built with billions in loans from Beijing. And all of those countries will have to pay back those loans in the years to come. With interest.
The flood of capital from China helped prevent the global economy from plunging into depression following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing financial crisis. But it isn't without controversy.For some, the billions of dollars from China are a welcome contribution to helping many underdeveloped regions in Asia and Africa expand infrastructure. For others, the loans from Beijing have forced half the world into economic and political dependency on Beijing. Some have described the situation as "debt bondage," while a group of U.S. senators wrote a letter to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo last summer warning of China's "attempt to weaponize capital."
A Lack of Transparency
Furthermore, little is actually known about the loans. China's foreign assets are now worth $6 trillion, but outside of the government in Beijing, nobody knows much about where that money has been invested and what conditions and risks are attached. Because China doesn't completely open its books to international organizations like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), there is a lack of needed transparency, says IMF head Christine Lagarde.
Now, though, with the release of a new study by a German-American team of academics under the leadership of Harvard professor Carmen Reinhart, Largarde will have a clearer picture. For months, the economists dug through both known and unknown source material, compiling the most comprehensive analysis yet of Chinese foreign loans. And the image that has resulted does nothing to assuage concerns about the financial power being exerted by Beijing.
......
Gautam

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 15 Jul 2019 08:21
by g.sarkar
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/14/busi ... Dispatches
China’s Economic Growth Slows as Trade War With U.S. Deepens
By Keith Bradsher, July 14, 2019
BEIJING — China’s growth fell to its slowest pace in nearly three decades, officials said on Monday, as a resurgence of trade tensions with the United States and lingering financial problems take an increasing toll on one of the world’s most vital economic engines.
Chinese officials said the economy grew 6.2 percent between April and June compared with a year earlier. While such economic growth would be the envy of most of the world, it represented the slowest pace in China since the beginning of modern quarterly record-keeping in 1992. That marks a significant slowdown from earlier this year, when growth came in at 6.4 percent, matching a 27-year low reached during the global financial crisis a decade ago.
Premier Li Keqiang set a target in March for economic growth to be between 6 and 6.5 percent this year. The figures on Monday fell within that range. But much of the growth in the quarter may have taken place in April and early May, when public confidence was higher because of a tax cut in March and heavy infrastructure spending as spring began. Trade talks broke down on May 10 and President Trump raised tariffs sharply on Chinese goods, a step that damaged consumer confidence within China. Growth early in the quarter also would have taken place before the contentious government takeover of a bank in late May hurt financial confidence.
Monthly economic data, particularly for imports, suggests that the second quarter started strong but then slowed. “There was certainly a surge in activity through April,” said George Magnus, a longtime specialist in the Chinese economy who is now at Oxford University. “Something happened in May.” The number may also understate the extent of the slowdown. Economists widely doubt the veracity of the top Chinese growth figure, which shows far more stability than comparable numbers from the United States and elsewhere.
A few sectors of the Chinese economy are doing fairly well. The strongest sector appears to be the construction of infrastructure, much of it paid for with money borrowed by local, provincial and national government agencies. The biggest drag on the Chinese economy lies in trade, which grew powerfully over the past three decades but has stopped rising in recent months. Exports dipped 1.3 percent in June from a year earlier, the government said on Friday, and imports fell 7.3 percent.
While the trade war has hurt American purchases from China, economic weakness in Europe and many Asian countries has caused overseas demand to weaken far more broadly than just in the United States. Last week, Singapore unexpectedly announced that its trade-dependent economy had shrunk at an annualized rate of 3.4 percent in the second quarter.
.....
Gautam

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 19 Jul 2019 18:46
by Vips
China’s debt at 303% of GDP, 15% of global total: Report.

A key gauge of China's debt has topped 300% of gross domestic product, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), as Beijing steps up support for the cooling economy while trying to contain financial risks.

China's total corporate, household and government debt rose to 303% of GDP in the first quarter of 2019, from 297% in the same period a year
earlier, the IIF said in a report this week which highlighted rising debt levels worldwide.

The IIF is a private global financial industry association, based in Washington.

"While authorities' efforts to curb shadow bank lending (particularly to smaller companies) have prompted a cutback in nonfinancial corporate debt, net borrowing in other sectors has brought China's total debt to over $40 trillion - some 15% of all global debt," the report said.

"Of note, onshore bond issuance suggests a big pickup in borrowing by local governments and banks this year."

China's economic growth slowed to 6.2% in the second quarter, its weakest pace in at least 27 years, as demand at home and abroad faltered in the face of mounting US trade pressure.

To revive investment and protect jobs, Beijing has been encouraging banks to lend more, particularly to struggling smaller firms. It has also unveiled billions of dollars in tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

In the first half of this year, local governments' total net bond issuance reached 2.1765 trillion yuan ($316.5 billion), the finance ministry said on Tuesday.

Chinese officials have said repeatedly said debt risks are manageable overall.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 21 Jul 2019 02:52
by Rishirishi
Vips wrote:China’s debt at 303% of GDP, 15% of global total: Report.

A key gauge of China's debt has topped 300% of gross domestic product, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), as Beijing steps up support for the cooling economy while trying to contain financial risks.

China's total corporate, household and government debt rose to 303% of GDP in the first quarter of 2019, from 297% in the same period a year
earlier, the IIF said in a report this week which highlighted rising debt levels worldwide.

The IIF is a private global financial industry association, based in Washington.

"While authorities' efforts to curb shadow bank lending (particularly to smaller companies) have prompted a cutback in nonfinancial corporate debt, net borrowing in other sectors has brought China's total debt to over $40 trillion - some 15% of all global debt," the report said.

"Of note, onshore bond issuance suggests a big pickup in borrowing by local governments and banks this year."

China's economic growth slowed to 6.2% in the second quarter, its weakest pace in at least 27 years, as demand at home and abroad faltered in the face of mounting US trade pressure.

To revive investment and protect jobs, Beijing has been encouraging banks to lend more, particularly to struggling smaller firms. It has also unveiled billions of dollars in tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

In the first half of this year, local governments' total net bond issuance reached 2.1765 trillion yuan ($316.5 billion), the finance ministry said on Tuesday.

Chinese officials have said repeatedly said debt risks are manageable overall.


The thing with China is that they can simply forgive all the debts. They have already built a massive infrastructure, this is going no where. They know very well this game of debt will not last for ever. Any "normal" economy would have failed long time ago. But the Chinese can keep it going, and when it finally comes to an halt, they can simply reboot the whole system, by writing off all the debts.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 21 Jul 2019 07:40
by Rahulsidhu
Rishirishi wrote:
Vips wrote:China’s debt at 303% of GDP, 15% of global total: Report.

A key gauge of China's debt has topped 300% of gross domestic product, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), as Beijing steps up support for the cooling economy while trying to contain financial risks.


The thing with China is that they can simply forgive all the debts. They have already built a massive infrastructure, this is going no where. They know very well this game of debt will not last for ever. Any "normal" economy would have failed long time ago. But the Chinese can keep it going, and when it finally comes to an halt, they can simply reboot the whole system, by writing off all the debts.


Agree. The fears of a debt/financial crisis in China are overblown for precisely this reason -- the line between public/private sector is not so sharp and the govt can effectively write off public/private sector debt to the extent needed. There are two potential problems with this
1) Inflaton: but unlikely given the massive overcapacity in China
2) loss of economic dynamism due to moral hazard. This is a real problem IMO.

With the above reasoning in mind, total debt/GDP numbers should be examined to see the composition: local vs foreign ccy, public vs private. Until not so long ago, lots of analysts used to sound alarm bells about high debt/GDP ratio of Japanese govt, seemingly oblivious to the fact that local ccy govt bonds are not a credit instrument at all but a rate instrument. Japanese govt is never going to default on JGBs.

Lesson for India: ignore all the alarmist talk about how govt debt is too high and we cannot take on more. As long as debt is in local currency and inflation is managed, there is no problem.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 22 Jul 2019 02:50
by Rishirishi
Rahulsidhu wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:
The thing with China is that they can simply forgive all the debts. They have already built a massive infrastructure, this is going no where. They know very well this game of debt will not last for ever. Any "normal" economy would have failed long time ago. But the Chinese can keep it going, and when it finally comes to an halt, they can simply reboot the whole system, by writing off all the debts.


Agree. The fears of a debt/financial crisis in China are overblown for precisely this reason -- the line between public/private sector is not so sharp and the govt can effectively write off public/private sector debt to the extent needed. There are two potential problems with this
1) Inflaton: but unlikely given the massive overcapacity in China
2) loss of economic dynamism due to moral hazard. This is a real problem IMO.

With the above reasoning in mind, total debt/GDP numbers should be examined to see the composition: local vs foreign ccy, public vs private. Until not so long ago, lots of analysts used to sound alarm bells about high debt/GDP ratio of Japanese govt, seemingly oblivious to the fact that local ccy govt bonds are not a credit instrument at all but a rate instrument. Japanese govt is never going to default on JGBs.

Lesson for India: ignore all the alarmist talk about how govt debt is too high and we cannot take on more. As long as debt is in local currency and inflation is managed, there is no problem.



Well I think the basic problem is how the government end up spending the cash. If it goes for subsidies and other unproductive things, it will just harm India. But If India somehow managed to free another 250 billion dollars per year for Infrastructure the game would change very fast. That would be sufficient to build 25 000 km 4 lane highway every year. Within 10 years India would have 250 000 km of first class highway. Every village would be near a highway. It would do wonders to the economy. Just think about it about 30% of the vegitables in India simply rot on the way to the market.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 06 Aug 2019 03:02
by UlanBatori
A small pooch to the experts: Today's news says that PRC devalued its currency and that is a huge retaliation against the US. Huh? Devaluing your own currency is like cutting your own throat, hain? Isn't this economic soosai?

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 06 Aug 2019 03:30
by hanumadu
Devaluation will help exports as it makes them cheaper. It will reduce the increase in cost caused by the tariffs. And its probably not aimed just at the US but also other countries including India.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 06 Aug 2019 03:32
by chola
UlanBatori wrote:A small pooch to the experts: Today's news says that PRC devalued its currency and that is a huge retaliation against the US. Huh? Devaluing your own currency is like cutting your own throat, hain? Isn't this economic soosai?


Lol. Devalue sounds like they had a choice. Nope, the fact is they can no longer defend the exchange rate under 7 as Trump crushes their export engine.

The US has them trapped either way. If they defend the Yuan under 7 then they'll hemorrhage forex as their exports fall. But if they don't defend and allow the market to clobber the Yuan (as is happening) then they could hemorrhage wealth as the MNCs and wealthy class panic and try to move out of China and the yuan before their assets are depreciated through inflation.

Unkil will clobber them either way. People don't understand how powerful the US game is.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 06 Aug 2019 03:55
by hanumadu
^^When it comes to US and China, you can't seem to stop praising the US. When it comes to India-China, you can't seem to stop praising China.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 06 Aug 2019 05:10
by chola
^^^ Probably because of the reality of the situation. The US is obviously far more powerful than Cheen with more (and powerful) allies and a much more experienced and larger military.

Vis a vis India, I praise them as a challenge that we can use to improve, especially on the MIC and production side of things. I much rather see us in rivalry with Cheen than Pakiland.

But if you read my writings, I find Cheen an overwhelmingly easy foe to clobber militarily if we had the balls or the foresight. I was horribly disappointed that we didn't go to war with them over Doklam. It would had been a history-changing victory with little cost as we owned massive, massive advantages in all potential theaters of operation. But hey why cry over spilled milk? Anyhoo, just to set the record straight on my views on Cheen.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 06 Aug 2019 06:24
by souravB
Chola sir, it has been a constant complain of US in WTO that China keep its currency undervalued to boost export. To me it seems like a Chinese tit for American tat.

UB sir, The common beliefs of economics seldom works in China since CCP heavily controls everything. Devaluation leads to inflation concept goes for a toss when politburo decides how many sheets of TP one can use at a public restroom. They can always print more money but keep populace from using it with just an advisory or can just let the importers run at a loss for perpetuity.
I'd also say I understand very little how money works, maybe somebody with more knowledge on the subject can elucidate more technically.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 06 Aug 2019 07:32
by hanumadu
chola wrote:^^^ Probably because of the reality of the situation. The US is obviously far more powerful than Cheen with more (and powerful) allies and a much more experienced and larger military.

Vis a vis India, I praise them as a challenge that we can use to improve, especially on the MIC and production side of things. I much rather see us in rivalry with Cheen than Pakiland.

But if you read my writings, I find Cheen an overwhelmingly easy foe to clobber militarily if we had the balls or the foresight. I was horribly disappointed that we didn't go to war with them over Doklam. It would had been a history-changing victory with little cost as we owned massive, massive advantages in all potential theaters of operation. But hey why cry over spilled milk? Anyhoo, just to set the record straight on my views on Cheen.


IMO, the situation is not so simple. What has come of the trade war so far? China is countering the tariffs by devaluing its yen. What's the US going to do? Devalue its own currency? It can't because it is the reserve currency.
After years of killing American industry, China is now in a slight pickle with America now which is temporary. But China is a country with 1.3 billion people. Sooner or later, it will be American companies who will be asking China for access. China is probably two or three key technologies away from not needing US ever again.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 06 Aug 2019 11:42
by Rahulsidhu
hanumadu wrote:
IMO, the situation is not so simple. What has come of the trade war so far? China is countering the tariffs by devaluing its yen. What's the US going to do? Devalue its own currency? It can't because it is the reserve currency.

How does that stop the US from buying foreign currencies? This is a very real possibility being discussed now.

After years of killing American industry, China is now in a slight pickle with America now which is temporary. But China is a country with 1.3 billion people. Sooner or later, it will be American companies who will be asking China for access.


I think that ship has sailed. US companies, barring some auto cos. and Apple have not really profited much from China. Even that is under threat now.
China is probably two or three key technologies away from not needing US ever again.


Agree. I think we are about to see a new cold war, with two distinct tech, econ, political spheres. Might just induce enough competition to lift the world out of the so called "secular stagnation". As an example: the new space race.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 06 Aug 2019 11:45
by Rahulsidhu
One thing to keep in mind when thinking about the trade war b/w US & China - things are not how they seem on the surface.

Just a few weeks ago, there was the meeting in Osaka and a sense of general optimism in the markets. But behind the scenes, things had worsened. Right now, things are looking extremely dark, but one tweet from Trump could change that.

In the end, I do not think there will be a trade deal, as both sides now fully recognize each other as rival superpowers and this is more geopolitical competition than trade negotiations. But there will be lots of ups and downs.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 06 Aug 2019 13:35
by UlanBatori
^^^^ So I would say that the Experts at the Global Summits either have no clue about anything, or they are much worse: they are experts in match-fixing. Now markets are down. But will they stay down, how far down and for how long? Those who know, take the right risk, or are plain lucky, will reap trillions.
At the end of the day, devaluing the yuan means that the peasants in rural cheen are going to get stomped on. Just like rural Indians. City slickers will spout International E-CON-o-Comics and get paid at new conversion rate in equivalent dollars, and then point to Purchasing Power Parity because food and other rural products continue to be cheap as the peasant starve.

Hopefully this leads to the Curtular Levorution-II. :mrgreen: This time more like Frogistani and Russkie Revolutions. Pee All See Pee Ell Ay forced to withdraw from Uttar Arunachal and Uttar Himachal in order to try and save the CPC's asses in S-Hang-Hai and Pee-King from the mobs. Before they too defect to the mobs.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 06 Aug 2019 14:47
by chola
Rahulsidhu wrote:
hanumadu wrote:
IMO, the situation is not so simple. What has come of the trade war so far? China is countering the tariffs by devaluing its yen. What's the US going to do? Devalue its own currency? It can't because it is the reserve currency.

How does that stop the US from buying foreign currencies? This is a very real possibility being discussed now.

After years of killing American industry, China is now in a slight pickle with America now which is temporary. But China is a country with 1.3 billion people. Sooner or later, it will be American companies who will be asking China for access.


I think that ship has sailed. US companies, barring some auto cos. and Apple have not really profited much from China. Even that is under threat now.
China is probably two or three key technologies away from not needing US ever again.


Agree. I think we are about to see a new cold war, with two distinct tech, econ, political spheres. Might just induce enough competition to lift the world out of the so called "secular stagnation". As an example: the new space race.


No, Cheen had been extremely profitable for the US Fortune 500. It's everything from Starbucks and KFC to GM and Ford to Intel and Qualcomm to Boeing and Caterpillar to Warner and Disney to Coach and Tiffany's. The Fortune 500's move into building Chimerica in the last three decades had been wide and deep and profitable to the extreme. You can charge up to three times in Cheen versus what you could in the US. I'm on Wall Street, I know.

But losing the chini market is better than losing the technological lead. The "two or three key technologies away" is exactly why this war is being fought.

Two times before, the US had embargoed itself when it was on the cusp of dominating a pivotal chini industry: US was about to take over Cheen's satellite market when Bush punished LM and ended Amreeki involvement in Cheen's aerospace and then High Performance or supercomputers in Cheen were dependent on US chips until Obama put a stop to that.

Right now, the US dominates 70 percent of Cheen's PC and cellphone chips but the Huawei and ZTE bans had started to erode that.

So Wall Street is skeptical about giving up the chini market and its control of sectors within it like chips, autos and aircraft. But there is also no doubt that the Fortune 500 involvement in Cheen is powering its ascent.

If decoupling can wreck or even slow down the PRC's upward trajectory then you have to put security over profit.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 12 Aug 2019 10:48
by Austin

Trade war is raising the risk of U.S. recession, Goldman Sachs warns


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trade ... re_twitter

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 09 Sep 2019 07:49
by g.sarkar
https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-e ... ay-at-home
Asia's Beaches Go Quiet as Chinese Tourists Stay Home
Randy Thanthong-Knight, Harry Suhartono, Xuan Quynh Nguyen, September 06 2019,
From quiet beaches in Bali to empty rooms in Hanoi’s hotels, pangs from China’s economic malaise and weakening yuan are being felt across Southeast Asia’s vacation belt. A boom in Chinese outbound travel in recent years that stoked tourism across Southeast Asia is now in reverse gear. The abrupt decline of Chinese travelers is becoming a painful lesson for nations such as Thailand and Indonesia that had become overly dependent on Asia’s top economy.
“The slump in Chinese arrivals and tourism spending is being felt throughout the region,” said Kampon Adireksombat, Bangkok-based head of economic and financial market research at Siam Commercial Bank Pcl. “There’s always a concentration risk when relying on one market, and many countries may not be able to find a replacement for growth fast enough.”The slump is expected to continue in 2020 if the trade war continues to weigh down the Chinese economy, he said. Rising incomes over the past decade fueled the wanderlust of middle class Chinese consumers, making them the world’s largest outbound travel market, according to a McKinsey report, with the total number of outbound trips more than doubling from 57 million trips in 2010 to 131 million trips in 2017. “Southeast Asia is usually the first destination for Chinese travelers when they opt for farther destinations,” said the report. McKinsey’s 2017 China Outbound Traveler Survey had shown that the highest number of package trips were booked to Southeast Asia.
Mandarin-speaking tours, Chinese eateries and Chinese mobile payment services mushroomed from Danang to Yogyakarta, these travelers thronged to Southeast Asian hotspots, lured by their proximity and familiar cuisines. The pullback now threatens the tourism industry with pockets of overcapacity, after companies and local governments doubled down and poured millions of dollars into expanding resorts, hotels and travel facilities.
......
Gautam

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 26 Oct 2019 23:03
by tandav
The speed at which the Chinese work is admirable. Elon Musk signed an agreement with Shanghai in Oct 2018, took possession for his Gigafactory3 and Oct 2019 initial production starts with 6000 cars/week likely by Dec 2019. Apparently it took 168 working days from permits to production ready facility. It is precisely this reason why China is able bring in so much global talent.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-168-days
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/24/tech ... index.html

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 27 Oct 2019 02:41
by Rishirishi
tandav wrote:The speed at which the Chinese work is admirable. Elon Musk signed an agreement with Shanghai in Oct 2018, took possession for his Gigafactory3 and Oct 2019 initial production starts with 6000 cars/week likely by Dec 2019. Apparently it took 168 working days from permits to production ready facility. It is precisely this reason why China is able bring in so much global talent.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-168-days
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/24/tech ... index.html


I have seen this in practice. They have the empty factory building ready for possestion. Shelf companies area ready for purchase. You can effectively start operations within 2-3 days.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 31 Oct 2019 04:13
by Nikhil T
tandav wrote:The speed at which the Chinese work is admirable. Elon Musk signed an agreement with Shanghai in Oct 2018, took possession for his Gigafactory3 and Oct 2019 initial production starts with 6000 cars/week likely by Dec 2019. Apparently it took 168 working days from permits to production ready facility. It is precisely this reason why China is able bring in so much global talent.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-168-days
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/24/tech ... index.html


Admirable. I'm just amazed at how fast they've been able to churn out High Speed Rail, Expressways, Airports, Naval Ships & Planes.

Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Posted: 01 Dec 2019 17:34
by Manish_Sharma
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/ban ... uan-crash/

Bank Collapse In China! $40 Trillion Dollar Debt Heading To Economic Collapse & China’s Yuan CRASH
November 25, 2019 by IWB

First, it was Baoshang Bank , then it was Bank of Jinzhou, Now it is Heng Feng Bank. This is the third bank failure in China in only three months! And they’re getting bigger in size! Kyle Bass is saying that the Chinese banking regulators have at least 500 banks flagged for potential collapse.



People’s Bank Of China: Hundreds Of Country’s Banks At Risk
People’s Bank Of China, said that about 13 percent of the country’s financial institutions were considered “high risk,”…


China Central Bank Warns High Financial Risks
China needs to resolve outstanding financial risks, and must counter risks from “abnormal” market fluctuations that stem from external shocks…