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Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
svinayak
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby svinayak » 17 Feb 2017 21:18

disha wrote:
nirav wrote:He was discussing Israeli mangoes that they grow in the desert and made a strong pitch to NOT share technology with India as in his opinion it would be detrimental to Israeli agricultural interests !


Check out Jain Irrigations. http://www.jains.com/irrigation/drip%20irrigation%20system.htm - Desis do not require any ToT., all they need is a level playing ground to excel.


I know the owners of the Jain Irrigation. It is the largest Irrigation tech company. The company bought a Israeli company and now they are going global.

Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 17 Feb 2017 23:27

GST Council to finalise draft model GST law tomorrow
The GST Council, which is meeting tomorrow, is likely to finalise the draft model GST law including final drafting of the anti-profiteering clause to ensure benefit of lower taxes gets shared with consumers. The Council, headed by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and comprising representatives of all states, is also likely to finalise the definition of ‘agriculture’ and ‘agriculturist’ as well as constitution of a ‘National Goods and Services Tax Appellate Tribunal’ to adjudicate disputes.

The Law Ministry has sent the approved language and draft of the model GST Law, which outlines how the new national sales tax will be levied on goods and services.

Private Equity inflows in realty touch 9-year high at Rs 39,900 crore in 2016
Private equity investments in the real estate sector increased by 26 per cent during 2016 and touched a nine-year high of nearly Rs 40,000 crore, according to property consultant Cushman & Wakefield. Mumbai saw the highest share of inflow at 32 per cent of the total private equity investments in real estate (PERE). “PERE inflows in 2016 were seen at their highest in nine years at Rs 399 billion (USD 5.97 billion), registering a 26 per cent increase from Rs 316.7 billion (USD 4.8 billion) in 2015,” the consultant said in a statement. The number of deals closed during the year also rose only 5 per cent with 119 deals. Average deal size increased to Rs 3.4 billion (USD 50 million) from Rs 2.8 billion (USD 43 million) 2015, signalling increased confidence amongst investors to make larger investments into the Indian real estate sector.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 18 Feb 2017 20:32

Kerala Finance Minister Thomas Isaac:
After GST implementation the Commercial Taxes Department will shut down the border check-posts. But the state will have a mechanism to prevent tax evasions, said the minister.

“The plan includes setting up of surveillance cameras at entry points to the state through which officers can learn the registration number of goods vehicles entering the state. Action will be taken if an invoice bearing the vehicle’s number is not found on the GSTN portal,” he said.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/ ... 71863.html

??? Why does GST depend on which vehicle brought the goods in?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 18 Feb 2017 21:09

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/arti ... id-growth/
"Does India Need a Radically Different Approach for Rapid Growth?"

Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 19 Feb 2017 00:47

A_Gupta wrote:??? Why does GST depend on which vehicle brought the goods in?

A vertical network of businessmen can avoid paying GST collectively by claiming no credits and paying no tax. Such checks are used to catch people who do that. As seen in DeMo thread, there's no shortage of people who consider it their right to evade taxes.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby VinodTK » 20 Feb 2017 05:05

Gold imports shrink 32.7 per cent to USD 19.74 bn in April-Jan
India's gold imports fell by about 32.7 per cent to USD 19.74 billion during the April-January period of this fiscal, which is expected to keep a lid on the current account deficit. Total imports of the precious metal in the corresponding period of 2015-16 stood at USD 29.31 billion.

According to industry experts, softening prices of the precious metal in the domestic and world markets could be the reason for the dip in imports. Cash crunch in the system in the wake of demonetisation also impacted the inbound shipments.

Gold imports dipped by about 30 per cent to USD 2.04 billion in January as against USD USD 2.91 billion in the same month last year, according to the commerce ministry data.

The contraction in imports helped in narrowing the trade deficit to USD 86.38 billion in April-January period as against USD 107.74 billion in the same period previous year.

India is one of the largest gold importers in the world, and the imports mainly take care of demand from the jewellery industry. For the full year 2015-16, CAD stood at USD 22.1 billion, or 1.1 per cent of GDP, as against USD 26.8 billion, or 1.3 per cent, in 2014-15.

In volume terms, the country's total official gold imports declined to 60 tonnes in April-July of this fiscal, much lower than 250 tonnes in the year-ago period. India imported 650 tonnes of gold in 2015-16.

The imports remained stable at around 100 tonnes in November despite fall in sales of jewellery due to the cash crunch following demonetisation. According to experts, the rural demand was hit due to the currency ban and restriction on withdrawal of money form banks and ATMs.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby kapilrdave » 20 Feb 2017 13:10

Suraj wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:??? Why does GST depend on which vehicle brought the goods in?

A vertical network of businessmen can avoid paying GST collectively by claiming no credits and paying no tax. Such checks are used to catch people who do that. As seen in DeMo thread, there's no shortage of people who consider it their right to evade taxes.

There are entire industries sized in thousands of crores running completely on cash basis. Some had refused to pay even 5% VAT in past on face of the state govt. Their arrogance is seen to be believed.

Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 23 Feb 2017 01:55

Govt clears foreign investments worth Rs 12,200 crore
An inter-ministerial body on Tuesday approved 15 foreign investment proposals, including those relating to Apollo Hospitals, Hindustan Aeronautics, Dr Reddy's, and Vodafone, worth Rs 12,200 crore.

"15 of 24 FDI proposals were approved while three were rejected," sources said.

The Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB), headed by economic affairs secretary Shaktikanta Das, deferred six proposals, including that of Gland Pharma.

These proposals were deferred for further consultation and want of more information, sources added.

Among the proposals approved, Twinstar Technologies will alone bring foreign capital of Rs 9,000 crore into the country.

GoI has been making sustained effort to bridge the demand-supply gap in pulses, but which takes time because pulses are not a fast growing crop and each new sowing takes 2-3 years to achieve full yield:
Five-year map to raise pulses output
The central government has prepared a five-year schedule to push annual pulses production to over 24 million tonnes by 2020-21. This could make the country self-sufficient.

Production in 2016-17, also the first year of this plan, is expected to be a record at over 22 mt, around 0.9 mt more than targeted.

Image
GST implementation to push GDP growth above 8%: IMF
The adoption of the GST could help raise India's medium-term GDP growth to over eight per cent and create a single national market for enhancing the efficiency of the movement of goods and services, the IMF said on Wednesday.

At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also expressed concerns over the implementation of the Goods and Service Tax (GST).

The IMF said larger than expected gains from the GST and further structural reforms could lead to significantly stronger growth, while a sustained period of continued low global energy prices would also be beneficial to India.

Noting that India's tax revenue-to-GDP ratio (at around 17 and a half per cent) remains considerably below than its emerging market peers, the IMF said the implementation of a robust GST should be a key priority given its growth-enhancing effects.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 23 Feb 2017 19:05

"India's Weak Lenders Need 'Tough Love,' Central Banker Says"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... anker-says

“Under-capitalized banks could be shown some tough love and be subjected to corrective action” Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Viral Acharya said in a speech to bankers in Mumbai on Tuesday. “Such action should entail no further growth in deposit base and lending. We must not allocate capital so poorly, recreate ‘heads I win, tails the taxpayer loses’ incentives, and sow the seeds of another lending excess.”

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 23 Feb 2017 21:52

Image

Austin
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Austin » 23 Feb 2017 23:27

^^ Eventually the debt based model of economic growth is not sustainable and countries with high debt like Japan , China , US and many EU countries will start feeling the heat , infact they all do with the rise of Right Wing Nationalism in some of their country

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 28 Feb 2017 00:55

http://indianexpress.com/article/busine ... y-4546961/
"India can grow at higher rate; job creation plans underway: FM Arun Jaitley"
India has potential to grow faster and plans are underway to reduce poverty and create jobs in rural areas, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said Monday, even as he ruled out the country becoming totally ‘cashless’ immediately. “One of the reasons for note ban was tax non-compliant. One of the objectives of the demonetisation was to reduce and eliminate anonymity. I don’t see India becoming a cashless system immediately. I see India becoming less-cash economy,” Jaitley told PTI in London. The Finance Minister, who is meeting top government officials and business leaders here, further said the GST regime would also make generation of cash more difficult, besides making the taxation system much more efficient. He hoped that the GST would be implemented by July 1.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 28 Feb 2017 01:24

http://www.outlookindia.com/website/sto ... r-g/298076
"How India’s Recent Migrant Policies Helped Bangladesh And Pakistan Eat Into Our GDP
A Chunk of Migrant Workers’ Jobs in the Gulf Diverted to Pakistan and Bangladesh due to India’s new tortuous emigration policy and higher minimum wages"

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby amit » 28 Feb 2017 18:24

Now, now what is this? Indian GDP growth for the 3rd quarter beats analysts' and Steve Forbes' forecast and grows 7 per cent? Now wait for the articles questioning the numbers!

Full year forecast pegged at 7.1 per cent.

:rotfl: :rotfl:
Last edited by amit on 28 Feb 2017 18:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Yagnasri » 28 Feb 2017 18:27

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/econom ... 70101.html

Already it is being planted. "Surprise" word is also there even in the initial reports.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 28 Feb 2017 18:34

"Domestic, global logistics companies look to India for increased investment"
According to Agility's Emerging Markets Logistics index published last month, India, for the second consecutive year was picked as the country with the most potential to grow as a logistics market. The report, which surveyed more than 800 supply chain and logistics professionals, said GST would be the potential game-changer and companies will have to re-gear themselves to adjust to GST. Surveyed entities also indicated that India was the leading emerging market destination for investment by their companies over the next five years.

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 564_1.html

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JTull » 28 Feb 2017 19:28

GDP numbers are stable because economic base for reporting has increased - some parts of informal economy are now entering formal economy. Original formal economy base is growing at a slower pace but this data proves the shift. One of the stated aim of demonitisation is being realised. This will improve the tax base and the banking sector. Everything is on the right track.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby gakakkad » 28 Feb 2017 19:51

A_Gupta wrote:http://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/how-indias-recent-migrant-policies-helped-bangladesh-and-pakistan-eat-into-our-g/298076
"How India’s Recent Migrant Policies Helped Bangladesh And Pakistan Eat Into Our GDP
A Chunk of Migrant Workers’ Jobs in the Gulf Diverted to Pakistan and Bangladesh due to India’s new tortuous emigration policy and higher minimum wages"


I thought the author was smoking something heavy..but then i saw his name and realized that he was only expressing taqleef on behalf of the ummah...and a blatant =/= attempt with STFU-P and BD..we don't survive on gelf baksheesh... this should also be posted in achievements thread as Modi is doing great things to protect the interest of indians...

eMigrate:

In May 2015, the Centre introduced a unique computerized system called “e-Migrate” to regulate overseas employment, especially to protect lesser educated blue collar workers against possible exploitation. The new system brought various stockholders -- Indian Missions, Foreign Employers, Emigrants and Recruiting Agents on a single platform. It made compulsory for the entire foreign employers to fill up a registration application which is then vetted by the respective Indian mission. Any foreign employer can raise the demand for Indian blue collar workers and seek a permit to recruit Indians only through this system.

This project has not worked in the favour of Indian workers, as Gulf-based employers, not known to be ‘tech-savvy’, have switched over to hiring laborers from Bangladesh and Pakistan. The government's intention to protect interests of Indian workers cannot be disputed but the bureaucratic procedures were bound to defeat the purpose. The bureaucracy, while preparing this system, did not realize that Gulf employers would not take so take the pain to hire Indian workers when they are available on lesser wages in other countries without any such troublesome procedures.

Minimum Referral Wages (MRW):

New Delhi made a big decision in recent years by bringing a new guideline for Foreign Employers, urging a higher pay for millions of Indian workers in countries falling under the category of “emigration check required” (ECR).

India, in this way, coerced the Gulf countries to raise the wages of its workers in a drive to earn more billions of dollars in fresh income. For instance, in Saudi Arabia, the Indian embassy lifted the recommended minimum salary to 1,700 riyals from 1,200 Riyals in the matter of a month. In the UAE, the minimum wage for some category of Indian blue-collar workers rose to 1,500 dirham from 1,200 dirham.


Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 28 Feb 2017 21:44

JTull wrote:GDP numbers are stable because economic base for reporting has increased - some parts of informal economy are now entering formal economy. Original formal economy base is growing at a slower pace but this data proves the shift. One of the stated aim of demonitisation is being realised. This will improve the tax base and the banking sector. Everything is on the right track.

Exactly . I tried to explain back in November that DeMo isn't going to cause economic contraction as far as the official economy is concerned but the opposite, due to black to white conversion . There will probably be even more tailwinds in the current and future quarters as more data is accounted for .

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby disha » 01 Mar 2017 00:06

Whenever an economist makes a judgement call., never trust that eCONomist. For example., all eCONomists jumped and predicted that India's GDP growth rate will shrink by as much as 2%., and some #mediapimps went to the town stating that India's GDP will shrink!

Now this same eCONomists are taking a rain check by making the following statement:

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/indias-strong-gdp-data-leaves-economists-scratching-their-heads/articleshow/57397628.cms

And when confronted with data., here is what eCONomists state:

Little surprise, then, that Tuesday's robust GDP figures have left economists dazed, and have also raised fresh doubts about the quality of India's official economic data reporting.

"Perhaps this data is not capturing the impact of demonetisation," said Aneesh Srivastava, chief investment officer, IDBI Federal Life Insurance Co.

"I am totally surprised and stunned to see this number."
*

So if the number is against your bias., then the numbers are wrong! Aren't economists supposed to be objective? Hence a subjective economist is more a eCONomist!

And this is outright ridiculous

"There are widespread doubts about the accuracy of the national accounts numbers," analysts at Capital Economics wrote. "The unexpected strength of today's data will do nothing to allay these concerns."


Who are those analcysts at Capital Economics? Is this the company & team https://www.capitaleconomics.com/about-us/our-team/!? If that is the case then - funny no Indian hand from India and they can comment on Indian economy!

Now why is the following a good thing?

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left the policy repo rate on hold at 6.25 per cent for a second meeting in a row this month and signalled an end to its longest easing cycle since the global financial crisis, citing growing inflationary risks.

"With inflation pressures also building, we think that the RBI could begin hiking rates over the next 12-18 months," analysts at Capital Economics wrote in a note.


A tougher rate policy means that the quality of investment will be better and hence the investment has a better chance of weathering a downturn instead of looking at handouts from the tax payer. Further., in case of India (or the world over) the NPAs can be balanced out.



* My suggestion., do not invest with IDBI Federal Life Insurance Co. Your money will definitely sink. :-D

KL Dubey
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby KL Dubey » 01 Mar 2017 02:13

disha wrote:* My suggestion., do not invest with IDBI Federal Life Insurance Co. Your money will definitely sink. :-D


These guys seem to be idiots, a fact which neatly explains why most of their funds and policies turned out to be underperformers. :( I already planned to liquidate mine in a couple of months, and endorse your suggestion fully.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JTull » 01 Mar 2017 03:32

Chinese number are gold, Indian numbers are fake!

Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 01 Mar 2017 03:56

JTull wrote:Chinese number are gold, Indian numbers are fake!

They reported 6.8% for Oct-Dec quarter. We were widely expected to lose the 'world's fastest growing major economy' tag due to DeMo. Turns out that didn't happen.
India's strong GDP data leaves economists scratching their heads
Annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the October-December period came in at 7.0 per cent, a tad slower than 7.4 per cent in the previous quarter but much faster than the 6.4 per cent expansion forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.

It was also higher than China's 6.8 per cent growth for the last three months of 2016.

Manufacturing, agriculture drive higher than expected GDP growth
Gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter (Q3) of financial year 2016-17 (FY17) grew at 7 per cent, allaying fears of any major effect of demonetisation though it was the lowest expansion in four quarters.

Private final consumption expenditure, denoting demand, rose at double the rate (10 per cent) in Q3, against five per cent in Q2.

The Q3 numbers not only made India the fastest-growing large economy in the world but also helped the Central Statistics Office (CSO) retain its earlier projection (in first advance estimates) for full-year GDP growth at 7.1 per cent in the second advance estimates released on Tuesday.

“It appears like the negative impact of demonetisation was over-estimated. India still maintains a 7-per cent growth rate and remains one of the brightest spots in the global economy,” Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das told Business Standard after data was released.

“The biggest surprises in GDP growth figures for Q3FY17 were the 8.3-per cent manufacturing growth and the 2.7-per cent rise in construction activities. The latter was expected to have been affected by cash crunch,” said Aditi Nayar, principal economist, ICRA.

She added, “The higher-than-expected growth can be ascribed to agriculture as well as each sub-sector of industry. Service sector growth is weaker than anticipated.”

Image
Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby hanumadu » 01 Mar 2017 04:50

Suraj wrote:
JTull wrote:GDP numbers are stable because economic base for reporting has increased - some parts of informal economy are now entering formal economy. Original formal economy base is growing at a slower pace but this data proves the shift. One of the stated aim of demonitisation is being realised. This will improve the tax base and the banking sector. Everything is on the right track.

Exactly . I tried to explain back in November that DeMo isn't going to cause economic contraction as far as the official economy is concerned but the opposite, due to black to white conversion . There will probably be even more tailwinds in the current and future quarters as more data is accounted for .


How much of the 7.1 growth is because of hitherto unreported activity started being reported because of DeMo? Did any part of the formerly informal activity started appearing in the GDP figures? If we compare apples to apples, what would the growth have been if we take into account only that activity that was being reported?

If we take MMS estimates of 5.5 GDP growth as correct and 7.1 is because of underground economy coming over ground, then 1.6% is the size of the informal economy that was reported last quarter. When all of the hidden economy starts getting reported, will we see a quarter/year with 20-30% growth rate?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 01 Mar 2017 04:58

That's difficult to answer. To put the question back to you, how much clarity do you think exists in production and sales data from the field ? For example a company that usually reports 10% growth reports 25% last quarter. How much of that is necessarily informal ? It's not easy to tell them apart from the source trail perspective. You could assume anything above trendline is anomalous, but that's just an estimate.

In general Q3 data is going to be very noisy to look at because there's a combination of destruction of cash-based economic networks and a rebuilding of formal banking based systems in its place, and what we see is the net growth alone. The claim so far had been that the losses on account of the disruption would significantly exceed gains, at least in the short term. That's clearly not true - the economy was resilient enough to sustain the effect of DeMo without losing its overall momentum.

It is indeed possible that there will be future quarters of high growth. 20-30% though ? Unlikely. It's more likely that CSO will receive data that doesn't fit into its base year model anymore and they'll just update the base year and scale up the GDP by 20-30% to account for the greater base of activity taking into account informal activity that became formal.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 01 Mar 2017 18:30

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... dia-growth
"SBI Sees Bad Loans at India Banks Worsening on Slower Growth"
Asia’s third-largest economy is being weighed down as the soured loans on bank balance sheets hinder credit growth and job creation. Various schemes proposed by the central bank to resolve the problem have been unsuccessful with lenders reluctant to write down assets sufficiently and company owners unwilling to negotiate repayment plans.

Stressed assets -- made up of bad loans, restructured debt and advances to companies that can’t meet servicing requirements -- have risen to about 16.6 percent of total loans, the highest level among major economies, data compiled by the government shows.

The resolution process for bad loans has been delayed as the current tools offered by the RBI are inadequate and lenders have recently been focused on dealing with the fall out from Modi’s cash ban, Bhattacharya said.

The RBI completed its audit of the nation’s 50 lenders last year, forcing them to lay bare previously-hidden nonperforming loans. Credit Suisse Group AG estimates banks will have to put aside at least 860 billion rupees ($13 billion) in the next 12 months to comply with higher central-bank requirements for older soured debt.

“We believe in another four months time you will see these resolutions happening and if that happens then, definitely, I think we can declare the clean-up process will have served its purpose and be over,” Bhattacharya said.

S&P Global Ratings said Tuesday that India’s banks will recover only marginally over coming quarters, citing a reluctance by the corporate sector to invest and a ’wait and watch’ approach by retail borrowers. Weak profitability and rising capital demands will also weigh on public sector banks, the ratings firm said.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 03 Mar 2017 17:45

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -clampdown

A private survey signaled the first expansion in four months for India’s key service sector, adding to signs the economy is bouncing back from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s shock clampdown on cash late last year.

The Nikkei India Services Purchasing Managers’ Index inched up to 50.3 in February, a report showed Friday, from 48.7 in January and November’s 46.7, which was the lowest since December 2013. A number above 50 indicates growth.

"Anecdotal evidence from survey participants suggested that, after being hampered by shortages of cash in the economy, demand for services in India improved," the report said.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Prem » 06 Mar 2017 03:19

https://www.ft.com/content/b351b50a-fce ... e3738f9ae4

India faces another tryst with destiny
the big short-term challenge is the disturbing weakness of investment. The Economic Survey attributes this in part to the “twin balance sheet problem” — the combination of overleveraged companies with encumbered banks. It argues that the economy will not grow out of these debts, partly because they hinder investment and growth. The answer is a combination of recognising losses, restructuring debts and radical reform of banking. This will be difficult but it is surely essential.India has a good chance of enduring as the world’s fastest-growing large economy, ultimately emerging as another democratic superpower by the middle of the century. But the challenges it faces are enormous. Past successes suggest these might be overcome. But much will have to change and many of those changes will not happen automatically. Once again, India has a tryst with destiny.


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby anupmisra » 06 Mar 2017 17:27



Coffee spill alert!

Contrary to market perception, India’s unemployment rate halved from 9.5 per cent in August 2016 to 4.8 per cent in February this year
unemployment rate in Uttar Pradesh registered the maximum decline from 17.1 per cent to 2.9 per cent, followed by Madhya Pradesh (10 per cent to 2.7 per cent), Jharkhand (9.5 per cent to 3.1 per cent), Odisha (10.2 per cent to 2.9 per cent) and Bihar (13 per cent to 3.7 per cent).


Love the metrics from UP and Bihar!!!

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby hanumadu » 06 Mar 2017 19:09

The report claims the reduction in unemployment is primarily due to MNREGA. Though good, not necessarily the best way.

The report further noted that the decline was also explained by household demanded/allocated work under MGNREGA, which increased from 83 lakh households in October 2016 to 167 lakh households in February 2017.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 06 Mar 2017 19:35

This helps reduce destitute level poverty. You need to do both. Increase regular jobs and decrease destitution.

anupmisra
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby anupmisra » 06 Mar 2017 20:10

2.9% unemployment equates to zero unemployment in industrialized economies which usually prompt the raising of prime lending rates (for fear of inflation).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 06 Mar 2017 23:54

hanumadu wrote:The report claims the reduction in unemployment is primarily due to MNREGA. Though good, not necessarily the best way.

The report further noted that the decline was also explained by household demanded/allocated work under MGNREGA, which increased from 83 lakh households in October 2016 to 167 lakh households in February 2017.

These were in the most drought affected regions or in areas with the least economic dynamism . A doubling in households covered through a far lower increase in spending indicates that the program is far more effectively run now. A lack of destitute voters also increases the appeal of developmental politics since the focus shifts to desire for growth, from being willing to grab whatever scraps are sent their way .

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby hanumadu » 07 Mar 2017 00:01

The mitigation of drought, a good monsoon might have also increased farm work.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 07 Mar 2017 00:53

To me the impressive factor is the household coverage. a 2x increase in coverage amounting to almost 8 million new households in ONE year ? Keep in mind we have ~200 million total households, i.e. a ~5.5x multiplier to # of people. In one year the effective implementation of this kept 45 million rural people out of the destitute/unemployed ranks by giving them gainful employment and hopefully skills to build upon. That's a huge achievement. On the other hand, it also means that this program backstops almost 10% of households, which is a very large number too.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby disha » 07 Mar 2017 02:54

^^ It basically means that the rural poverty is wiped out. They may not have white goods or even bicycle., but at the very least they will have food+clothing. I think the push for rural housing and textiles will in next five years solve the issue of roti+kapda+makan.

Real garibi hatao! And all this on a backdrop of falling inflation. I am still trying to digest the numbers., but if this year's monsoon is also good - then we will be set for goldilocks growth for the next 2-3 years! Another couple of good monsoons and we will be in goldilocks till 2024!!

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Melwyn » 07 Mar 2017 04:41

:(( :(( All wraang predictions. All will fail...

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 07 Mar 2017 04:45

Unlike past crop insurance schemes, PMFBY seems to be quite a hit:
30% of area sown under rabi crops gets PM insurance cover
Key points:
* Initial estimates show 16.4 million farmers opt for insurance under Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana in this rabi season
* Of the total cropped area of 64.5 million hectares, the total area covered is around 19.4 million hectares
* The total sum insured rose by almost 50 per cent to over Rs 68,000 crore, as compared to the same period last year
* The government plans to cover 40 per cent of cropped area in 2017-18 and raise it to 50 per cent by 2018-19
* In the 2017-18 Union Budget, the government allocated Rs 9,000 crore for the scheme as against Rs 5,500 crore allocated in 2016-17 (BE)

Farm sector estimated to grow 5% in Q4
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FDI in services sector up 77.6% in 9 mths of FY'17
Foreign investments in the services sector increased 77.6 per cent to $ 7.55 billion in the first nine months of the current fiscal, helped by government steps to improve ease of doing business.

The sector, which includes banking, insurance, R&D, outsourcing, courier and technology testing, had received foreign direct investment (FDI) worth $ 4.25 billion during the April-December period of last fiscal, 2015-16, according to the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP).

The sector contributes over 60 per cent to India's GDP and accounts for 17 per cent of total foreign investment inflows.

The other sectors where inflows have recorded growth during the nine month period of 2016-17 are: telecom ($ 5.54 billion), trading ($ 2 billion), computer software and hardware ($ 1.81 billion) and automobile ($ 1.45 billion).

In step FDI growth in important sectors like services, overall foreign inflows in the country increased 22 per cent to $ 35.84 billion during April-December 2016-17.

Bumper output pushes down cereal prices in India
Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 07 Mar 2017 08:41

http://www.barrons.com/articles/is-indi ... 1488769695
Is India Lying About Its World Beating Economy?
American Enterprise Institute’s Derek Scissors says India’s desire to report faster growth trumped accuracy.


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