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Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 17 Mar 2017 11:12

if we look in any shop, there are hardly any manufactured products "made in UP" (outside of noida/ghaziabad/faridabad hugging NCR) and almost zero "made in bihar"

thats nearly 300 million people 25% of india not having any value added industry barring PSU units.

there are plenty of rail network and enough proximity to main routes of transport. problems are power and crime. even education & training is not a problem as millions of UPites work in gulf and other parts of india in skilled trades.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 17 Mar 2017 18:50

Just to add about TFR data from NHFS-4. I am afraid that the TFR data while good may hide demographic problems like in KL, WB, AS where only one community is growing and others are below 2.1. We may now face the same problem all over India where I suspect all other communities are below or at 2.1 except perhaps BH. Govt should seriously consider imposing a two child policy with incentives and disincentives as 85% of India will not be affected and will be politically less problematic.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Karthik S » 17 Mar 2017 18:59

Supratik wrote:Just to add about TFR data from NHFS-4. I am afraid that the TFR data while good may hide demographic problems like in KL, WB, AS where only one community is growing and others are below 2.1. We may now face the same problem all over India where I suspect all other communities are below or at 2.1 except perhaps BH. Govt should seriously consider imposing a two child policy with incentives and disincentives as 85% of India will not be affected and will be politically less problematic.


Supratikji, the actual percentage is 71%, not 85% as we are all led to believe.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 17 Mar 2017 20:23

Let's stick to the economic concerns in this thread. Relative demographics are not suitable for discussion here :)

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby komal » 17 Mar 2017 21:01

Singha wrote:if we look in any shop, there are hardly any manufactured products "made in UP" (outside of noida/ghaziabad/faridabad hugging NCR) and almost zero "made in bihar"

thats nearly 300 million people 25% of india not having any value added industry barring PSU units.

there are plenty of rail network and enough proximity to main routes of transport. problems are power and crime. even education & training is not a problem as millions of UPites work in gulf and other parts of india in skilled trades.


The lack of economic development in UP is surprising given the amount of money that must have gone to the state when the Nehru-Gandhi clan controlled the center.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Dipanker » 17 Mar 2017 22:21

Singha wrote:if we look in any shop, there are hardly any manufactured products "made in UP" (outside of noida/ghaziabad/faridabad hugging NCR) and almost zero "made in bihar"

thats nearly 300 million people 25% of india not having any value added industry barring PSU units.

there are plenty of rail network and enough proximity to main routes of transport. problems are power and crime. even education & training is not a problem as millions of UPites work in gulf and other parts of india in skilled trades.


Actually as far as crime is concerned there is a gap between perception and reality, as per NCRB data both Bihar and UP rank way lower than most Indian states, Bihar ranks around 20th and UP even lower than that.

Bihar has just 2 not very significant operational PSU's, eastern UP I think has none.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Marten » 17 Mar 2017 22:22

Dipanker, are you sure about that? AFAIK, UP crime rate is the highest in India.
See this for instance:
Indian Express: UP Crime rate explained
Image

No crime related statistics from UP can be trusted. It has been run like a feudal state for so long!
Last edited by Marten on 17 Mar 2017 22:31, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby GShankar » 17 Mar 2017 22:27

^^
Due to non-acceptance of complaints, it is possible the data might not reflect reality?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Marten » 17 Mar 2017 22:33

Non cognizance of heinous crime is also a crime. You are right though - with the law and order situation in UP being what it has been, non cognizance or under-reporting is also possible. Anyways, no more from me on this topic. Basically NCRB data should be looked at for all violent crimes and then a fair comparison can be made across states.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 17 Mar 2017 23:43

PLEASE, can't posters see the title of the thread ?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Gus » 18 Mar 2017 00:07

Next big event is GST rollout !

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 18 Mar 2017 00:34

GST has been delayed by one quarter to July 1 2017 now, from the earlier April 1 roll out. Mostly about getting all the states to read off the same script. This has been the most contentious piece of economic legislature in ages. Unlike say, the SEZ Act or power reforms etc, every state has to be on board and has to work together for the mechanism to work.

Even while I insist on avoiding UP demographics or crimes talk, there's a huge scope for economic growth in UP. The best data I have for UP's GSDP growth is this chart:
Image
Under 5% GSDP growth for over a decade is pathetic. A dynamic leadership is capable of pushing that state at 12-15% GDP growth for a few years, simply because the base is so low.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Sicanta » 18 Mar 2017 02:43

UP gets another AMRUT gift from Modi: Projects worth Rs 4,239 crore for urban development

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 693530.cms

The latest approvals take total expenditure in the state to Rs 11,421 crore, the highest among all states, under the Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT) with a central assistance of Rs 4,922 crore for the five-year mission period.

AMRUT aims to provide drinking water, sewerage and drainage networks and non-motorised transport, among others, in the selected 500 cities across the country.

"Ministry of Urban Development has approved AMRUT action plans of Uttar Pradesh for the next three years - 2017-20 - in one go involving an expenditure of Rs 4,239 crore," an official release said.

The ministry has approved an investment of Rs 703 crore for Telangana under the scheme over the next three financial years, taking the total expenditure to Rs 1,673 crore during the mission period. The Centre will provide Rs 832 crore for the projects.

For Tamil Nadu, an investment of Rs 4,154 crore for 2017-20 has been approved, taking the total mission investments to Rs 11,237 crore with central assistance of Rs 4,756 crore for the five-year period.

In Maharashtra, a total investment of Rs 6,759 crore will be made for improvement of basic urban infrastructure during 2015-20 with central assistance of Rs 3,534 crore.

An investment of Rs 3,280 crore has been approved for the state for 2017-20.

Haryana will spend a total of Rs 2,544 crore in improving basic urban infrastructure, including Rs 1,582 crore during 2017-20. The state will get a total central assistance of Rs 764 crore under the scheme.

In Chattisgarh, a total investment of Rs 2,192 crore will be incurred during the mission period, including Rs 879 crore during 2017-20, with a total central assistance of Rs 1,009 crore during the five year period.

Manipur will invest Rs 180 crore in improving infrastructure in the lone mission city of Imphal. The amount includes Rs 69 crore over the next three years. The state gets a total central assistance of Rs 162 crore during 2015-20.

Under AMRUT, Sikkim will invest Rs 39 crore in the lone mission city of Gangtok during 2015-20 with central assistance of Rs 36 crore. The state got approval for Rs 13 crore investment for next three years.

Under AMRUT, Ministry of Urban Development bears 50 per cent of project costs for cities with a population of below 10 lakhs each and one-third of project costs for those with a population of above 10 lakhs each.

Central assistance is of the order of 90 per cent for North-East and hilly states and 100 per cent in case of Union Territories.

The ministry has made a provision of Rs 50,000 crore as central assistance for the five-year mission period.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 18 Mar 2017 02:57

Modi govt gives big boost to gas production in India, clears CBM pricing, Lubrizol India stake sale
In what will boost the gas production in the country, the cabinet committee on economic affairs (CCEA) on Wednesday approved the marketing and pricing freedom to coal bed methane (CBM) contractors to sell CBM in the domestic market. CBM is a form of natural gas extracted from coal beds. If any buyer is not identified, the contractors can sell the CBM to its any affiliate. Royalty and other dues to the government, however, shall be payable on the basis of Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell notified prices or selling prices, whichever is higher.

The policy is expected to incentivise the CBM operation in the country. As on March 2016, CBM production from the country’s four blocks stood at 1.64 mmscmd.

Around 33 CBM blocks have been awarded in four rounds of CBM bidding, covering 64 % of the total available coal bearing area of 26,000 sqkm across 12 states. These blocks are seen to have about 62.4 trillion cubic feet (tcf), out of which, 9.9 tcf had been established as gas-in-place.

Stage set for July 1 rollout: GST Council caps cess on luxury goods at 15%
The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council on Thursday cleared a proposal to cap the cess on luxury cars and aerated drinks at 15 per cent over the peak rate of 28 per cent. The ceiling for the cess on “sin” goods would be much higher.

An official said for paan masala, the cap would be 135 per cent. On tobacco and cigarettes, the cap would be 290 per cent, or Rs 4,170 per 1,000 cigarette sticks. A call is yet to be taken on whether or not a cess would be imposed on bidis. The cess on coal and lignite (environment cess) would have an upper limit at Rs 400 per tonne, the official said.

While the second biggest state economy - UP - barely averages 5%, the biggest - MH - is running at almost twice that:
Maharashtra to grow at 9.4% in 2016-17: Economic Survey
Achhe din for the BJP-led government in Maharashtra are here. According to the Economic Survey for 2016-17 presented in the state legislature, the gross state domestic product (GSDP) for 2016-17 is expected to grow by 9.4 per cent compared to 8.5 per cent in 2015-16.

The surge in growth is largely due to a 12.5 per cent growth in agriculture, 10.2 per cent in electricity gas, water supply and other utility services and 10.8 per cent in services.

The state economy will grow faster than the Indian economy, which is expected to grow by 7.1 per cent in 2016-17.

Odisha iron ore production hits all-time high of 94mt
Iron ore production in Odisha has reached a record high in this financial year, with the combined output by both merchant and captive miners touching 94.19 million tonne (as on March 10, 2017). The ore production is at a decadal high, bettering the state's own production rate of 80.8 million tonne (mt) in 2015-16. With-pan India iron ore output by the end of this year, it pegged at 180 mt, Odisha is poised to retain its slot as the highest producer, accounting for over 50 per cent of the output.

The dispatch of iron ore permitted by the state government is 111.1 mt and if achieved, this could be the best ever despatch rate ever. By the end of February this year, the iron ore despatches were already in upwards of 90 mt.

GST to bad bank: Modi revisits economic reform agenda after landslide win
Here are the government's reform priorities:

GOODS AND SERVICES TAX:
The finance ministry plans to implement the Goods and Services Tax (GST), India's biggest-ever tax reform, from July.

There would be four tax slabs of 5, 12, 18 and 28 percent, plus a levy on taxes on luxury items like cars, aerated drinks and tobacco products to compensate states for any revenue losses in the first five years.

State of Play:
Central and state finance ministers gave their final approval to GST legislation on Thursday. The government hopes to win parliamentary backing in the current session, and in state assemblies by next month, so that the GST could be implemented in the second quarter of the 2017/18 financial year.

Likely upshot:
The new tax structure will be revenue neutral, and broadly keep the rates that apply to businesses in line with existing levies. Still, it is expected to boost the rate of economic growth by about 0.5 percentage points; broaden the revenue base; and cut compliance costs for firms.

BAD BANK:
The finance ministry and the Reserve Bank of India are still in talks on whether to set up a Public Sector Asset Rehabilitation Agency (PARA), or bad bank, to deal with stressed assets in the banking system.

State of play:
Technocrats at both the finance ministry and RBI have called for urgent action. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has, however, not been won over to the idea of a bad bank, a senior finance ministry official said. The banking division of the finance ministry also opposes such a move.

Likely upshot:
Jaitley has told parliament the government is considering a range of options, while aides say the focus will continue on using existing mechanisms to deal with bad loans. The approach has failed to achieve much headway until now, weakening state banks that are poorly placed to extend credit.

LABOUR REFORMS:
Encouraged by the election results, the Modi administration wants to move forward with long-pending labour bills on wages and industrial relations. Labour Minister Bandaru Dattatreya has proposed boiling down 44 industrial laws into four codes to simplify employment rules and raise social security benefits for workers.

State of play:
Labour ministry officials say efforts continue to build a consensus, following a government decision to extend maternity leave to 26 weeks from 12 weeks. Yet India's small but militant trade unions - even those allied to Modi's ruling party - oppose the reforms. The measures may now be introduced to the next session of parliament in July.

Likely upshot:
Officials say that if consensus cannot be reached at federal level, the Modi administration will encourage BJP-ruled states - including newly won Uttar Pradesh - to adopt state-level reforms already adopted by Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Gus » 18 Mar 2017 04:38

TN debt and deficit situation is worrisome. too much freebie programs and the economic engine is not fed and grown to sustain the expense.

basically..all that money spent and nothing to show for interms of long term social programs. when will these idiots understand that investing for a better revenue stream will allow for better spending for social programs..

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 21 Mar 2017 02:01

Cabinet clears GST Bills
Clearing the way for a July 1 roll-out, the Union Cabinet on Monday approved four Bills on a national goods and services tax (GST).

The decision comes two working days after the GST Council cleared these — Central GST (CGST), Union Territory GST (UTGST), Integrated GST (IGST) and the Compensation Bill. These are now set to be introduced in Parliament within this week, most likely as money Bills and so, not needing approval of the Rajya Sabha, where the ruling National Democratic Alliance does not have a majority.

UDAY states ee Rs.11989cr drop in interest costs
"As per the information available, the interest cost of states participating in UDAY has reduced by Rs 11,989 crore, approximately for the first nine months of the current financial year compared to the financial year (2015-16)," Power Minister Piyush Goyal said in a reply to the Rajya Sabha.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby disha » 22 Mar 2017 02:53

I may be out on a limb here., but at this pace of growth and all round growth., it would appear that by 2020 India's budget will be in surplus.

Maharashtra seeing 12.5 % growth in agriculture means that same growth can be replicated in UP & Bihar. In a nutshell, within 3-4 years (albeit with some help from monsoon)., we should see a significant drop in poverty. Given the drop in poverty, the money spent on social programs will be shifted elsewhere, since it will not be necessary for the remaining are not poor but will require a different set of help - maybe more avenues to grow up. This means a cut in a form of social spending meant for poor., since there are fewer poor but at the same time increase in infrastructure spending.

In a nutshell, the deficit will shrink significantly and I may think that it will be down to zero! Any upside from there is surplus. Even if it is Rs. 1.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 22 Mar 2017 13:25

80 per cent of informal economy will come under formal sector: J P Nadda
More than 80 per cent of informal economic activities, especially in the retail sector, will be brought into formal economy through digitalisation and cash-less transactions, Union minister J P Nadda said today. It will increase the number of tax payers with availability of adequate funds for development, the Union Health Minister said at ‘Digidhan Mela’ here.

He said 27 crore savings bank accounts were opened under Jan Dhan Yojana with a deposit of Rs 63,800 crore and that this amount could be used for economic development.

Field survey for annual employment data to begin soon
The Statistics Ministry will soon start field survey to bring out annual employment data as the basic spadework has been completed. However, the ministry has not given any timeline to bring out new employment data covering wide spectrum of industries and sectors, but it could be launched in 2019.

At present, the employment data is brought out by the Statistics Ministry’s wing National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) on quinquennial basis.

Besides, Labour Bureau also bring out employment data on quarterly basis covering eight broad sector. The government had decided to start this quarterly employment survey after the financial crisis of 2008 to assess the impact of slowdown.

As affluence rises, consumption in India set to hit $4 tn mark by 2025: BCG
Consumption of goods and services in India is set to reach $4 trillion by 2025 as rising affluence drives changes in consumer behaviour and spending pattern, according to a paper released on Wednesday by market research firm Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG) Center for Customer Insight (CCI), reports fe Bureau in New Delhi. In terms of spending, the two top consumer categories — elite and affluent — will become the largest combined segment by 2025, accounting for 40% of consumption compared with 27% in 2016.

Urban and affluent Indians are fuelling most of the growth, states the report. Moreover, by 2025, wealthy urbanites will be responsible for one-third of total consumption. The share of the next billion who have an annual gross salary in the range of $2,3000-7,7000 and strugglers with annual gross salary of less than $2,3000 will shrink from 49% in 2016 to 36% in 2025.

Also, in terms of consumption expenditures, emerging cities — those with a population of less than 1 million — will be the fastest growing. Fuelled by rising affluence, expenditure in these cities are rising by nearly 14% a year, while consumer spending in India’s biggest cities is increasing at about 12% a year.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 22 Mar 2017 17:41

The significance or lack of it escapes me, perhaps some guru here can explain.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... hrough-etf
India’s government is likely to sell part of the stakes it holds in Axis Bank Ltd., ITC Ltd. and Larsen & Toubro Ltd. through an exchange-traded fund this year, people familiar with the matter said. Shares of the three companies fell.

The new ETF would be larger than the Central Public Sector Enterprises ETF, a fund unveiled in 2014 that’s made up of the government’s shares in state-owned companies, the people said, asking not to be identified as a final decision regarding size and timing of the latest sales hasn’t been made yet.

While it’s the fourth occasion India will be using an ETF to sell shares it holds to maintain public spending without increasing the fiscal deficit, it’s the first time that a fund will house equity in private-sector companies, rather than state-controlled enterprises.

DS Malik, a spokesman for India’s finance ministry, wasn’t available for a comment when contacted by phone Wednesday.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has budgeted to raise 725 billion rupees ($11 billion) from such share sales in the fiscal year beginning April 1 as it aims to shrink Asia’s widest budget deficit. India has met or beaten its so-called disinvestment target only five times since 1998, data show.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JTull » 22 Mar 2017 19:15

A_Gupta wrote:The significance or lack of it escapes me, perhaps some guru here can explain.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... hrough-etf
India’s government is likely to sell part of the stakes it holds in Axis Bank Ltd., ITC Ltd. and Larsen & Toubro Ltd. through an exchange-traded fund this year, people familiar with the matter said. Shares of the three companies fell.


There are many advantages.

Selling stakes in individual companies involves a complex and long-winded process with many regulatory hurdles. Also, all the companies may not attract similar level of interest/pricing. This is also a good way to issue diversified baskets for retail investors and for overseas portfolio investors looking for exposure to Indian growth story from govt. driven investments. Most PSUs trade at significant lower valuations to their private counterparts. An ETF basket should increase the correlation to private sector (and effectively the valuation that the govt. can receive)

This is also an efficient form of stake divesture while effectively maintaining control of the underlying companies. Theoretically, govt could create the ETF but still hold all the ETF issuance. It can be a market-maker in these units by selling or buying back based on demand. It can also add to the issue size by creating new units at any time without needing to go thru inefficient FPOs for individual companies. In such a format, the ETF is effectively a SWF (Sovereign Wealth Fund). For example, in UK, the UKFI (UK Financial Investments Ltd) does the job of transparently managing tax-payers stake in various enterprises.

The PSUs will need to be listed and will need to adhere to the accounting and reporting standards demanded by the regulators/exchanges. Old way of back-seat driving from ministries should change to market driven transparent monitoring of their management. That's the theory anyway.

Other reason is of controlling who buys the stakes in individual companies and for what purpose. One example could be the Coal India FPO some time ago. It had problems later-on as some western activist investors got hold of the stock in the FPO and were involved in issuing unsavory press-bites.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby chetak » 23 Mar 2017 00:00

Watch: Swarajya Explains: GDP Fact from Fiction!

https://twitter.com/SwarajyaMag/status/843940002853801986

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 23 Mar 2017 01:10

JTull wrote:There are many advantages.

Selling stakes in individual companies involves a complex and long-winded process with many regulatory hurdles. Also, all the companies may not attract similar level of interest/pricing. This is also a good way to issue diversified baskets for retail investors and for overseas portfolio investors looking for exposure to Indian growth story from govt. driven investments. <snip>...........


Thanks! Now I feel less thick as a brick :)

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 24 Mar 2017 02:30

Apple may start making iPhones in India over next two months
Apple Inc. will soon start assembling iPhones in India for the first time, say government officials familiar with its plans, boosting the company’s chances of gaining a foothold in the fast-growing market.

Taiwanese contract manufacturer Wistron Corp. will likely start making iPhone 6 and 6S models here in the next four-to-six weeks at its plant in Bangalore, said an official of the southern state of Karnataka where the tech hub is located. It will add Apple’s cheapest iPhone model, the SE, to its assembly line in about three months, the official said.

India receives $235 billion in remittances in three-and-half years
India received a whopping $235 billion in remittances in the last three-and-a-half years, as per government data.

In 2013-14, India received $69.64 billion in remittances, while the figure in 2014-15 was $69.82 billion and $65.60 billion in 2015-16.

The volume of remittances in the first six months of the current fiscal was $30.43 billion.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 24 Mar 2017 10:28

the iphone6 is presently @ 29k in india and 6s @ 40k. hopefully with local manufacture some of import duties will not apply and the starving faithfuls can get their hands on it cheaper. it would be a value priced purchase at 25k being a older stable flagship - the old 2yr old flagship being vfm formula and with apple one can be sure of periodic updates.


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