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Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

All threads that are locked or marked for deletion will be moved to this forum. The topics will be cleared from this archive on the 1st and 16th of each month.
Gus
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Gus » 18 Mar 2017 00:07

Next big event is GST rollout !

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 18 Mar 2017 00:34

GST has been delayed by one quarter to July 1 2017 now, from the earlier April 1 roll out. Mostly about getting all the states to read off the same script. This has been the most contentious piece of economic legislature in ages. Unlike say, the SEZ Act or power reforms etc, every state has to be on board and has to work together for the mechanism to work.

Even while I insist on avoiding UP demographics or crimes talk, there's a huge scope for economic growth in UP. The best data I have for UP's GSDP growth is this chart:
Image
Under 5% GSDP growth for over a decade is pathetic. A dynamic leadership is capable of pushing that state at 12-15% GDP growth for a few years, simply because the base is so low.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Sicanta » 18 Mar 2017 02:43

UP gets another AMRUT gift from Modi: Projects worth Rs 4,239 crore for urban development

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 693530.cms

The latest approvals take total expenditure in the state to Rs 11,421 crore, the highest among all states, under the Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT) with a central assistance of Rs 4,922 crore for the five-year mission period.

AMRUT aims to provide drinking water, sewerage and drainage networks and non-motorised transport, among others, in the selected 500 cities across the country.

"Ministry of Urban Development has approved AMRUT action plans of Uttar Pradesh for the next three years - 2017-20 - in one go involving an expenditure of Rs 4,239 crore," an official release said.

The ministry has approved an investment of Rs 703 crore for Telangana under the scheme over the next three financial years, taking the total expenditure to Rs 1,673 crore during the mission period. The Centre will provide Rs 832 crore for the projects.

For Tamil Nadu, an investment of Rs 4,154 crore for 2017-20 has been approved, taking the total mission investments to Rs 11,237 crore with central assistance of Rs 4,756 crore for the five-year period.

In Maharashtra, a total investment of Rs 6,759 crore will be made for improvement of basic urban infrastructure during 2015-20 with central assistance of Rs 3,534 crore.

An investment of Rs 3,280 crore has been approved for the state for 2017-20.

Haryana will spend a total of Rs 2,544 crore in improving basic urban infrastructure, including Rs 1,582 crore during 2017-20. The state will get a total central assistance of Rs 764 crore under the scheme.

In Chattisgarh, a total investment of Rs 2,192 crore will be incurred during the mission period, including Rs 879 crore during 2017-20, with a total central assistance of Rs 1,009 crore during the five year period.

Manipur will invest Rs 180 crore in improving infrastructure in the lone mission city of Imphal. The amount includes Rs 69 crore over the next three years. The state gets a total central assistance of Rs 162 crore during 2015-20.

Under AMRUT, Sikkim will invest Rs 39 crore in the lone mission city of Gangtok during 2015-20 with central assistance of Rs 36 crore. The state got approval for Rs 13 crore investment for next three years.

Under AMRUT, Ministry of Urban Development bears 50 per cent of project costs for cities with a population of below 10 lakhs each and one-third of project costs for those with a population of above 10 lakhs each.

Central assistance is of the order of 90 per cent for North-East and hilly states and 100 per cent in case of Union Territories.

The ministry has made a provision of Rs 50,000 crore as central assistance for the five-year mission period.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 18 Mar 2017 02:57

Modi govt gives big boost to gas production in India, clears CBM pricing, Lubrizol India stake sale
In what will boost the gas production in the country, the cabinet committee on economic affairs (CCEA) on Wednesday approved the marketing and pricing freedom to coal bed methane (CBM) contractors to sell CBM in the domestic market. CBM is a form of natural gas extracted from coal beds. If any buyer is not identified, the contractors can sell the CBM to its any affiliate. Royalty and other dues to the government, however, shall be payable on the basis of Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell notified prices or selling prices, whichever is higher.

The policy is expected to incentivise the CBM operation in the country. As on March 2016, CBM production from the country’s four blocks stood at 1.64 mmscmd.

Around 33 CBM blocks have been awarded in four rounds of CBM bidding, covering 64 % of the total available coal bearing area of 26,000 sqkm across 12 states. These blocks are seen to have about 62.4 trillion cubic feet (tcf), out of which, 9.9 tcf had been established as gas-in-place.

Stage set for July 1 rollout: GST Council caps cess on luxury goods at 15%
The Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council on Thursday cleared a proposal to cap the cess on luxury cars and aerated drinks at 15 per cent over the peak rate of 28 per cent. The ceiling for the cess on “sin” goods would be much higher.

An official said for paan masala, the cap would be 135 per cent. On tobacco and cigarettes, the cap would be 290 per cent, or Rs 4,170 per 1,000 cigarette sticks. A call is yet to be taken on whether or not a cess would be imposed on bidis. The cess on coal and lignite (environment cess) would have an upper limit at Rs 400 per tonne, the official said.

While the second biggest state economy - UP - barely averages 5%, the biggest - MH - is running at almost twice that:
Maharashtra to grow at 9.4% in 2016-17: Economic Survey
Achhe din for the BJP-led government in Maharashtra are here. According to the Economic Survey for 2016-17 presented in the state legislature, the gross state domestic product (GSDP) for 2016-17 is expected to grow by 9.4 per cent compared to 8.5 per cent in 2015-16.

The surge in growth is largely due to a 12.5 per cent growth in agriculture, 10.2 per cent in electricity gas, water supply and other utility services and 10.8 per cent in services.

The state economy will grow faster than the Indian economy, which is expected to grow by 7.1 per cent in 2016-17.

Odisha iron ore production hits all-time high of 94mt
Iron ore production in Odisha has reached a record high in this financial year, with the combined output by both merchant and captive miners touching 94.19 million tonne (as on March 10, 2017). The ore production is at a decadal high, bettering the state's own production rate of 80.8 million tonne (mt) in 2015-16. With-pan India iron ore output by the end of this year, it pegged at 180 mt, Odisha is poised to retain its slot as the highest producer, accounting for over 50 per cent of the output.

The dispatch of iron ore permitted by the state government is 111.1 mt and if achieved, this could be the best ever despatch rate ever. By the end of February this year, the iron ore despatches were already in upwards of 90 mt.

GST to bad bank: Modi revisits economic reform agenda after landslide win
Here are the government's reform priorities:

GOODS AND SERVICES TAX:
The finance ministry plans to implement the Goods and Services Tax (GST), India's biggest-ever tax reform, from July.

There would be four tax slabs of 5, 12, 18 and 28 percent, plus a levy on taxes on luxury items like cars, aerated drinks and tobacco products to compensate states for any revenue losses in the first five years.

State of Play:
Central and state finance ministers gave their final approval to GST legislation on Thursday. The government hopes to win parliamentary backing in the current session, and in state assemblies by next month, so that the GST could be implemented in the second quarter of the 2017/18 financial year.

Likely upshot:
The new tax structure will be revenue neutral, and broadly keep the rates that apply to businesses in line with existing levies. Still, it is expected to boost the rate of economic growth by about 0.5 percentage points; broaden the revenue base; and cut compliance costs for firms.

BAD BANK:
The finance ministry and the Reserve Bank of India are still in talks on whether to set up a Public Sector Asset Rehabilitation Agency (PARA), or bad bank, to deal with stressed assets in the banking system.

State of play:
Technocrats at both the finance ministry and RBI have called for urgent action. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has, however, not been won over to the idea of a bad bank, a senior finance ministry official said. The banking division of the finance ministry also opposes such a move.

Likely upshot:
Jaitley has told parliament the government is considering a range of options, while aides say the focus will continue on using existing mechanisms to deal with bad loans. The approach has failed to achieve much headway until now, weakening state banks that are poorly placed to extend credit.

LABOUR REFORMS:
Encouraged by the election results, the Modi administration wants to move forward with long-pending labour bills on wages and industrial relations. Labour Minister Bandaru Dattatreya has proposed boiling down 44 industrial laws into four codes to simplify employment rules and raise social security benefits for workers.

State of play:
Labour ministry officials say efforts continue to build a consensus, following a government decision to extend maternity leave to 26 weeks from 12 weeks. Yet India's small but militant trade unions - even those allied to Modi's ruling party - oppose the reforms. The measures may now be introduced to the next session of parliament in July.

Likely upshot:
Officials say that if consensus cannot be reached at federal level, the Modi administration will encourage BJP-ruled states - including newly won Uttar Pradesh - to adopt state-level reforms already adopted by Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Gus » 18 Mar 2017 04:38

TN debt and deficit situation is worrisome. too much freebie programs and the economic engine is not fed and grown to sustain the expense.

basically..all that money spent and nothing to show for interms of long term social programs. when will these idiots understand that investing for a better revenue stream will allow for better spending for social programs..

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 21 Mar 2017 02:01

Cabinet clears GST Bills
Clearing the way for a July 1 roll-out, the Union Cabinet on Monday approved four Bills on a national goods and services tax (GST).

The decision comes two working days after the GST Council cleared these — Central GST (CGST), Union Territory GST (UTGST), Integrated GST (IGST) and the Compensation Bill. These are now set to be introduced in Parliament within this week, most likely as money Bills and so, not needing approval of the Rajya Sabha, where the ruling National Democratic Alliance does not have a majority.

UDAY states ee Rs.11989cr drop in interest costs
"As per the information available, the interest cost of states participating in UDAY has reduced by Rs 11,989 crore, approximately for the first nine months of the current financial year compared to the financial year (2015-16)," Power Minister Piyush Goyal said in a reply to the Rajya Sabha.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby disha » 22 Mar 2017 02:53

I may be out on a limb here., but at this pace of growth and all round growth., it would appear that by 2020 India's budget will be in surplus.

Maharashtra seeing 12.5 % growth in agriculture means that same growth can be replicated in UP & Bihar. In a nutshell, within 3-4 years (albeit with some help from monsoon)., we should see a significant drop in poverty. Given the drop in poverty, the money spent on social programs will be shifted elsewhere, since it will not be necessary for the remaining are not poor but will require a different set of help - maybe more avenues to grow up. This means a cut in a form of social spending meant for poor., since there are fewer poor but at the same time increase in infrastructure spending.

In a nutshell, the deficit will shrink significantly and I may think that it will be down to zero! Any upside from there is surplus. Even if it is Rs. 1.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 22 Mar 2017 13:25

80 per cent of informal economy will come under formal sector: J P Nadda
More than 80 per cent of informal economic activities, especially in the retail sector, will be brought into formal economy through digitalisation and cash-less transactions, Union minister J P Nadda said today. It will increase the number of tax payers with availability of adequate funds for development, the Union Health Minister said at ‘Digidhan Mela’ here.

He said 27 crore savings bank accounts were opened under Jan Dhan Yojana with a deposit of Rs 63,800 crore and that this amount could be used for economic development.

Field survey for annual employment data to begin soon
The Statistics Ministry will soon start field survey to bring out annual employment data as the basic spadework has been completed. However, the ministry has not given any timeline to bring out new employment data covering wide spectrum of industries and sectors, but it could be launched in 2019.

At present, the employment data is brought out by the Statistics Ministry’s wing National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) on quinquennial basis.

Besides, Labour Bureau also bring out employment data on quarterly basis covering eight broad sector. The government had decided to start this quarterly employment survey after the financial crisis of 2008 to assess the impact of slowdown.

As affluence rises, consumption in India set to hit $4 tn mark by 2025: BCG
Consumption of goods and services in India is set to reach $4 trillion by 2025 as rising affluence drives changes in consumer behaviour and spending pattern, according to a paper released on Wednesday by market research firm Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG) Center for Customer Insight (CCI), reports fe Bureau in New Delhi. In terms of spending, the two top consumer categories — elite and affluent — will become the largest combined segment by 2025, accounting for 40% of consumption compared with 27% in 2016.

Urban and affluent Indians are fuelling most of the growth, states the report. Moreover, by 2025, wealthy urbanites will be responsible for one-third of total consumption. The share of the next billion who have an annual gross salary in the range of $2,3000-7,7000 and strugglers with annual gross salary of less than $2,3000 will shrink from 49% in 2016 to 36% in 2025.

Also, in terms of consumption expenditures, emerging cities — those with a population of less than 1 million — will be the fastest growing. Fuelled by rising affluence, expenditure in these cities are rising by nearly 14% a year, while consumer spending in India’s biggest cities is increasing at about 12% a year.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 22 Mar 2017 17:41

The significance or lack of it escapes me, perhaps some guru here can explain.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... hrough-etf
India’s government is likely to sell part of the stakes it holds in Axis Bank Ltd., ITC Ltd. and Larsen & Toubro Ltd. through an exchange-traded fund this year, people familiar with the matter said. Shares of the three companies fell.

The new ETF would be larger than the Central Public Sector Enterprises ETF, a fund unveiled in 2014 that’s made up of the government’s shares in state-owned companies, the people said, asking not to be identified as a final decision regarding size and timing of the latest sales hasn’t been made yet.

While it’s the fourth occasion India will be using an ETF to sell shares it holds to maintain public spending without increasing the fiscal deficit, it’s the first time that a fund will house equity in private-sector companies, rather than state-controlled enterprises.

DS Malik, a spokesman for India’s finance ministry, wasn’t available for a comment when contacted by phone Wednesday.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has budgeted to raise 725 billion rupees ($11 billion) from such share sales in the fiscal year beginning April 1 as it aims to shrink Asia’s widest budget deficit. India has met or beaten its so-called disinvestment target only five times since 1998, data show.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JTull » 22 Mar 2017 19:15

A_Gupta wrote:The significance or lack of it escapes me, perhaps some guru here can explain.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... hrough-etf
India’s government is likely to sell part of the stakes it holds in Axis Bank Ltd., ITC Ltd. and Larsen & Toubro Ltd. through an exchange-traded fund this year, people familiar with the matter said. Shares of the three companies fell.


There are many advantages.

Selling stakes in individual companies involves a complex and long-winded process with many regulatory hurdles. Also, all the companies may not attract similar level of interest/pricing. This is also a good way to issue diversified baskets for retail investors and for overseas portfolio investors looking for exposure to Indian growth story from govt. driven investments. Most PSUs trade at significant lower valuations to their private counterparts. An ETF basket should increase the correlation to private sector (and effectively the valuation that the govt. can receive)

This is also an efficient form of stake divesture while effectively maintaining control of the underlying companies. Theoretically, govt could create the ETF but still hold all the ETF issuance. It can be a market-maker in these units by selling or buying back based on demand. It can also add to the issue size by creating new units at any time without needing to go thru inefficient FPOs for individual companies. In such a format, the ETF is effectively a SWF (Sovereign Wealth Fund). For example, in UK, the UKFI (UK Financial Investments Ltd) does the job of transparently managing tax-payers stake in various enterprises.

The PSUs will need to be listed and will need to adhere to the accounting and reporting standards demanded by the regulators/exchanges. Old way of back-seat driving from ministries should change to market driven transparent monitoring of their management. That's the theory anyway.

Other reason is of controlling who buys the stakes in individual companies and for what purpose. One example could be the Coal India FPO some time ago. It had problems later-on as some western activist investors got hold of the stock in the FPO and were involved in issuing unsavory press-bites.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby chetak » 23 Mar 2017 00:00

Watch: Swarajya Explains: GDP Fact from Fiction!

https://twitter.com/SwarajyaMag/status/843940002853801986

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 23 Mar 2017 01:10

JTull wrote:There are many advantages.

Selling stakes in individual companies involves a complex and long-winded process with many regulatory hurdles. Also, all the companies may not attract similar level of interest/pricing. This is also a good way to issue diversified baskets for retail investors and for overseas portfolio investors looking for exposure to Indian growth story from govt. driven investments. <snip>...........


Thanks! Now I feel less thick as a brick :)

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 24 Mar 2017 02:30

Apple may start making iPhones in India over next two months
Apple Inc. will soon start assembling iPhones in India for the first time, say government officials familiar with its plans, boosting the company’s chances of gaining a foothold in the fast-growing market.

Taiwanese contract manufacturer Wistron Corp. will likely start making iPhone 6 and 6S models here in the next four-to-six weeks at its plant in Bangalore, said an official of the southern state of Karnataka where the tech hub is located. It will add Apple’s cheapest iPhone model, the SE, to its assembly line in about three months, the official said.

India receives $235 billion in remittances in three-and-half years
India received a whopping $235 billion in remittances in the last three-and-a-half years, as per government data.

In 2013-14, India received $69.64 billion in remittances, while the figure in 2014-15 was $69.82 billion and $65.60 billion in 2015-16.

The volume of remittances in the first six months of the current fiscal was $30.43 billion.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 24 Mar 2017 10:28

the iphone6 is presently @ 29k in india and 6s @ 40k. hopefully with local manufacture some of import duties will not apply and the starving faithfuls can get their hands on it cheaper. it would be a value priced purchase at 25k being a older stable flagship - the old 2yr old flagship being vfm formula and with apple one can be sure of periodic updates.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby disha » 24 Mar 2017 22:34

How Gujarat increased its agriculture income 2x-3x fold

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/specials/india-interior/arid-land-yields-a-bounty-of-succulent-fruits/article9600608.ece?google_editors_picks=true

This can be replicated across Uttarakhand and UP., agri-produce can be a bedrock of economy growing at 7-10% y-o-y for the next 10-15 years. We have been led to believe that agriculture is a no-growth area. And economically has to be sustained by giving out doles. That is not the case., if agriculture can give us textiles+food+housing., we are well on our way to prosperity.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 24 Mar 2017 22:45

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -estimated
India’s current account deficit widened less than estimated, as a smaller goods trade gap offset a drop in service exports, burnishing the rupee’s strength after an increase in U.S. interest rates.

Key Points

* The shortfall was $7.9 billion October-December, or 1.4 percent of gross domestic product, the Reserve Bank of India said in a statement in Mumbai on Thursday

* That compares with a median $12 billion deficit predicted in a Bloomberg survey of 13 economists

* The gap is bigger than the previous quarter’s $3.4 billion (0.6 percent of GDP) and $7.1 billion the previous year (1.4 percent of GDP)

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 28 Mar 2017 11:56

All the CivAv posts have been moved to that thread. Please continue there.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 28 Mar 2017 23:11

Video: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... anks-video
Vinod Rai, chairman of the India Banks Board Bureau, discusses his outlook for India's banking sector with Bloomberg's Yvonne Man at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Bhurishravas » 29 Mar 2017 15:32

Supreme court has banned the sale of BS-3 vehicles from April 1.
There is a stock of around 8,24,000 BS-3 stock.
The judicial overreach is getting weirder by the day and is going to cost the economy a lot unless the govt does something about it. Last time, SC ordered all Diesel cabs in delhi off the road.
The auto companies dunno how to deal with this as they cant plan their sale in view of any new whim or diktat coming from milords.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 29 Mar 2017 16:16

In india the auto cos have always wanted to drag feet and do the least possible on safety and pollution fronts to reduce cost, keep margin and increase mileage.

They do need the occasional judicial shock

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 29 Mar 2017 16:21

They had been given notice 6 minths ago but kept on producing hoping it would be april1 to end production but not sale. Tough. They can junk or sell the engines. The vehicle itself can be resold with bs4 engine
I m sure hyundai suzuki or ford types can export their bs3 stock to other turd world markets in afroasia.

Ndtv

The EPCA had also reported that it had held meetings with industry to give them a six-month notice to ensure that all inventories were exhausted "so the country takes advantage of BS IV fuel which will be available from April 1".

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A Nandy » 29 Mar 2017 21:35

All four GST Bills passed in Lok Sabha with amendments

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... e-4590413/

All four bills related to GST was on Wednesday passed in Lok Sabha with voice votes. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, who tabled the bills on Monday, briefed the BJP MPs about GST’s impact at the party’s parliamentary board meeting on Tuesday. The Central GST, Integrated GST, Union Territory GST and the Compensation Law will be discussed in the House for around six hours. The BJP is hoping to build consensus and roll-out the GST by July 1.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 29 Mar 2017 21:58

SBI subsidiary bank merger will roll out from April 1.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 30 Mar 2017 18:04

India May Ease Rules for Foreign Food Retail Before November
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-november
Following calls from global retail giants such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Tesco Plc, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to decide by November whether India is prepared to ease strict rules on food retailers, a minister said on Tuesday.

India allows 100 percent investment by foreign wholesalers, but if they want to access the burgeoning retail market, they can only have a 100 percent holding to sell food items. This forces them to overhaul their businesses instead of replicating models that have worked abroad, Harsimrat Kaur Badal, minister for food processing industries, said in an interview at her official residence in New Delhi.

"Wal-Mart, Tesco, etc. have said that they should be allowed non-food items and that’s a decision the government has to take now," she said. "The government’s decision will come before the World Food India event being organized for November."

The government is looking at allowing global companies with a permit to sell local food items to market made-in-India non-food products such as toothpaste and towels worth about 25 percent of total sales, an official with the knowledge of the matter had said earlier this month. One of the reasons for current restrictions is that small traders have traditionally formed the backbone of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, though that could change following his landslide victory in state elections this month.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 30 Mar 2017 23:47

As long as they don't sell Chinese junk and have a mandate to sell a certain percentage (max possible) of "Make in India" items. Otherwise we don't need the Walmarts. Our desi companies will do the job. It is not rocket science.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 31 Mar 2017 11:05

Image
Image
Image
Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 31 Mar 2017 12:27

due to a error in a a UPI app and lax audit for the same by user bank, some 20 cr were stolen last week from a MH bank by some people in the app developer or their associates

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 01 Apr 2017 01:25

Nominal GDP at 2.6 trillion at end of fin 17. Per capita around 2000.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby hanumadu » 01 Apr 2017 11:58

^^Where did you get those figures?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 01 Apr 2017 13:27

wiki estimates

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Karthik S » 01 Apr 2017 13:58

If we grow at 13% by EoY, it's possible to reach 2.6 figure as our GDP was 2.3 when we overtook GDP of UK earlier this year.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby nam » 01 Apr 2017 14:04

Google cacha tells me that China was around 2.1 trillion in 2006 and it's currency around 16 to a dollar.

So we are around 2.5-2.6 trillion with 64 to a dollar. So the Chinese currency was much stronger to a dollar, compared to rupee.

There was tremendous jump in Chinese GDP & per cap after 2006 as the yaun started to become quite strong + Chinese growth.

So we are at that inflexion point, where currency & growth gives tremendous boost to GDP. We could be close to what Chinese are in 10 years time!

We could have really invested in manufacturing taking advantage of the currency, but alas. If the currency manages to hover around 55 to 60 as we grow, it could give us great advantage in exports.
Last edited by nam on 01 Apr 2017 14:31, edited 1 time in total.

Lisa
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Lisa » 01 Apr 2017 14:08

Seeking information. Is India the only large economy that did not partake in QE, Quantitative Easing or did it?

Many thanks in advance.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby nandakumar » 01 Apr 2017 16:16

India did do QE, of a kind. Unlike the US where the Fed bought toxic assets. India expanded public expenditure at the cost of increasing fiscal deficit. This was part of a G20 consensus way back in 2008. The US was very keen that all G20 countries participate so that their EQ stimulus doesn't hurt the dollar value. The G20 met in Pittsburgh in 2008.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby hanumadu » 01 Apr 2017 17:38

Supratik wrote:Nominal GDP at 2.6 trillion at end of fin 17. Per capita around 2000.


They are a bit on the high side, I think. End of fin 17 would be March 17 for India. I don't think we got there already. End of 2017, like Karthik said, we will be there.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby hanumadu » 01 Apr 2017 17:47

Lisa wrote:Seeking information. Is India the only large economy that did not partake in QE, Quantitative Easing or did it?

Many thanks in advance.


Not exactly an answer to your question, but some what related.

http://www.businesstoday.in/current/world/india-announces-more-contribution-for-debt-wracked-eurozone/story/185578.html

India on Monday announced a $10 billion contribution to the IMF's additional $430 billion financial firewall to help the debt-wracked 17-nation eurozone so that the faltering world economy is protected against the spread of any financial contagion.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 01 Apr 2017 19:14

India did something similar post 2008 under Pranabda.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 01 Apr 2017 19:24

The GDP figure is ball park correct. You will see the link in wiki.

Nam,

You are right. China had a blistering growth at the 2.5 trillion mark for 10 yrs which put it beyond 10 trllion. But India is growing more modestly. If India manages 9% growth plus 4-5% inflation till 2030 it will come close to 10 trillion. But it will require political and economic stability and steady currency. What happened under UPA2 was massive devaluation of currency from around 52 to 68. Also stable currency and predictability is good for growth. Too much strengthening of currency has its own problems.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Karthik S » 01 Apr 2017 19:35

Considering our young population, and the necessity to provide employment to most, we really should be looking at 14% 15% growth for atleast 6 7 years. Our GDP should be near that of the Chinese.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 01 Apr 2017 19:43

Not 6-7. At least 10-15 yrs. Maybe more. Japan needed 18 yrs of blistering growth. Then you will be in lower high income group. My prediction is that China will slow down to 5-6% growth for next decade. If we do a good job we can reduce the gap substantially by 2040.


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