Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

[vera_k]

^^ The data in GHI report (and the low weight to height ratio) should be taken with a huge truck load of salt. In essence the GHI data is useless and not even worth the toilet paper it is printed on.

The weight to height ratio even though is generally a good indicator is actually useless. The key indicator is under 5 mortality index and that is falling and has more than halved in one generation.

GoI data agrees with the GHI data, so its not as if the GHI data is bogus. Yes, things are improving, but not as quickly as in other countries. Otherwise Bangladesh would not be seen to be doing better using the same type of data and metrics.

[Katare]

GHI can only get data from GoI unless it hires a few thousand employees to do it's own survey. It is well known fact for a century that we really fare badly on the universal hunger indicator where weight/height of under 5 year old children are compared with world average.

Hindu diet of no or very little meat is one reason for that but a large portion of Indian population is still too poor to feed too many kids that they produce. India has been the poster child of hunger for last two centuries, it's just the last 4 decades where we have become reasonably self sufficient as a nation but a ling tail still goes hungry or feeds itself on mostly cereals.

But does it really matter? May be not but what maters is stunting, mortality, disease, brain, motor skill development and these indicator usually follow the weight/height indicator so it's a good proxy. Still, does it fully apply to India is a valid doubt.

[vijayk]

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/bjp-u ... 40659.html

Modi may have done enough to hedge against middle class anger

[A_Gupta]

Regarding the Global Hunger Index, the wasting and stunting figures might possibly be disputable. What about under-five child mortality rate (a.k.a. U5MR)? (under-5 deaths per 1000 live births).

The National Family Health survey (NFS-4) gives India a U5MR of 50 for 2015-16 (see here: http://rchiips.org/NFHS/pdf/NFHS4/India.pdf )
The Global Hunger Index report uses a figure of U5MR for India of 48.

A UNICEF document from 2010 projected India's U5MR (http://unicef.in/CkEditor/ck_Uploaded_I ... g_1364.pdf ) to be 50 in 2015-16.


To me the tragedy is that today's Global Hunger Index headline could have been written in 2010. Neither sarkar of either party or ideology has been able to bend the curve downwards.

PS:
This news-article claims India likely to have achieved U5MR of 42 in 2016.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 773252.cms

PPS: the Global Hunger Index figures for wasting (21.0) and stunting (38.4) are from the Indian National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4).
(via http://rchiips.org/NFHS/factsheet_NFHS-4.shtml see the INDIA figures.) There is no point in disputing them as western-oriented.

[hanumadu]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 087189.cms

"We have slightly downgraded India, but believe that the country is for the medium and long-term on a growth track that is much more solid as a result of the structural reforms that have been conducted in the last couple of years," the IMF Managing Director Lagarde said.
Describing the two major recent reforms in India - demonetisation and Goods and Services Tax (GST) - as monumental efforts, Lagarde said it is hardly surprising that there "is a little bit of a short-term slowdown" as a result.

[Bart S]

I think the bad development numbers for India result from being skewed by population heavy laggard states like UP, Bihar, and WB (MP and RJ seem to have moved out of the erstwhile BIMARU grouping). It would be interesting to see what the numbers would be for those states and the rest of the country without them.

This does not excuse the overall numbers or justify anything done by our politicians, but at least differentiates issues of state-level development (and hence governance) from national/central issues and governance.

[hanumadu]

http://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/digi ... d=43488098

Now, a new report from Morgan Stanley Research finds that two major initiatives—digitizing its predominantly cash-based economy and reforming its archaic tax system—have the potential to amplify India's expansion, making it one of the world's fastest-growing large economies over the next 10 years.

“The country was already on a strong trajectory, but digitization puts India's nominal GDP growth on track to compound annually by more than 10% in U.S. dollar terms over the coming decade," says Anil Agarwal, Head of Asian Financial Research at Morgan Stanley. “The result could be a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity."

Every time I read such reports, I am a little more convinced of the positive impact of DeMo, GST, JanDhan and other initiatives. Shows there is a well defined path that is being followed here.

[yensoy]

This does not excuse the overall numbers or justify anything done by our politicians, but at least differentiates issues of state-level development (and hence governance) from national/central issues and governance.

Interestingly, Governance and Development seem to be uncorrelated. TN and Kerala have great Development but piss-poor Governance. I am not making a political statement here, rather wondering how much better Developed these states would be had their Governance actually been half-decent.

[A_Gupta]

Positive view of Indian economy, rural economy shows signs of uptick:
https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/ ... ar-sivaram

[A_Gupta]

India prevents a million child deaths since 2005:
http://www.indiaspend.com/cover-story/i ... -lag-18468

[Mort Walker]

GHI can only get data from GoI unless it hires a few thousand employees to do it's own survey. It is well known fact for a century that we really fare badly on the universal hunger indicator where weight/height of under 5 year old children are compared with world average.

Hindu diet of no or very little meat is one reason for that but a large portion of Indian population is still too poor to feed too many kids that they produce. India has been the poster child of hunger for last two centuries, it's just the last 4 decades where we have become reasonably self sufficient as a nation but a ling tail still goes hungry or feeds itself on mostly cereals.

But does it really matter? May be not but what maters is stunting, mortality, disease, brain, motor skill development and these indicator usually follow the weight/height indicator so it's a good proxy. Still, does it fully apply to India is a valid doubt.

This is a very poor analysis and reflects poor reasoning.

1. India was not independent until 70 years ago. It was a British colony where food shortages and famines were the deliberate result of colonialism. There is more than enough documentation to this effect. Shame on you for claiming

It is well known fact for a century that we really fare badly on the universal hunger indicator where weight/height of under 5 year old children are compared with world average.

India has been the poster child of hunger for last two centuries, it's just the last 4 decades where we have become reasonably self sufficient as a nation but a ling tail still goes hungry or feeds itself on mostly cereals.

2. There are liars, damn liars and statistics. The GHI falls in to the latter of statistics manipulation for global power politics.

3. The Hindu diet of little meat is not the reason. If it was we would see a huge disparity between different communities. As it is, GHI lumped BD and India-Pak into another group. This smells of statistical manipulation for nefarious purposes.

[jpremnath]

This does not excuse the overall numbers or justify anything done by our politicians, but at least differentiates issues of state-level development (and hence governance) from national/central issues and governance.

Interestingly, Governance and Development seem to be uncorrelated. TN and Kerala have great Development but piss-poor Governance. I am not making a political statement here, rather wondering how much better Developed these states would be had their Governance actually been half-decent.

Can you please elaborate WITH FACTS how the two best governed states in the country are just 'half decent ' ? Cockeyed labor policies and militant trade unionism doesn't equate with bad governance...And please elaborate on how the second biggest state economy (with less than 5% of its population ) in the country became one without good governance?

[yensoy]

Can you please elaborate WITH FACTS how the two best governed states in the country are just 'half decent ' ? Cockeyed labor policies and militant trade unionism doesn't equate with bad governance...And please elaborate on how the second biggest state economy (with less than 5% of its population ) in the country became one without good governance?

Sir this will get into a political discussion so I am not going to venture there on this thread. The "FACTS" you mention are exactly what I am saying - Development indicators are fantastic. But if you live there you will know the level of rot in the bureaucracy and political system.

[Bart S]

This does not excuse the overall numbers or justify anything done by our politicians, but at least differentiates issues of state-level development (and hence governance) from national/central issues and governance.

Interestingly, Governance and Development seem to be uncorrelated. TN and Kerala have great Development but piss-poor Governance. I am not making a political statement here, rather wondering how much better Developed these states would be had their Governance actually been half-decent.

Well, we are talking of governance relative to other states, in India. So they might not meet certain objective (might be poor by Singapore standards) and plenty of subjective (ideology, religion, caste etc) parameters that you might have in mind but there is absolutely no doubt that TN/Mah type states have done a better job of providing infrastructure and other basic necessities for their residents than, say, Bihar.

[jpremnath]

Can you please elaborate WITH FACTS how the two best governed states in the country are just 'half decent ' ? Cockeyed labor policies and militant trade unionism doesn't equate with bad governance...And please elaborate on how the second biggest state economy (with less than 5% of its population ) in the country became one without good governance?

Sir this will get into a political discussion so I am not going to venture there on this thread. The "FACTS" you mention are exactly what I am saying - Development indicators are fantastic. But if you live there you will know the level of rot in the bureaucracy and political system.

The opposite is the truth...the bureaucracy in these 2 states are eons above the rest of the country. Their bureaucrats are the ones who make sure the quality of life and social infrastructure(policing, health, roads) are more or less equal throughout the state..The dreaded commies have a misguided industrial policy in both Wb and kerala..but atleast they got the social infrastructure and reforms part right in KL...Guj, Mah, Raj and i think even MP has good industrial policies. With that we should assume them to go in the direction of Guangdong, but their governance structure including the bureaucracy is lacking. Mumbai infrastructure is pathetic even when the city corp budget is in surplus. Rural Mah is indistinguishable from the BIMARUs. The problem is lack of decentralisation in the country. States like KL and TN where the panchayati raj reforms where implemented efficiently shows that empowering LGs will only address the poverty and social infra.

[jpremnath]

People blaming the GHI figures should know that Govt spending on social services including Education and Healthcare as % of budget has been the lowest in last 10 years. Around 5% of budget...this is pathetic.

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/vGyN2g ... erent.html

With this how did you think our health parameters to improve? on wishful thinking and good will? Instead of throwing away public money on things like the Single Engine Fighter circus in the name of creating jobs, spend that 10billion to make 100 world class hospitals in UP and Bihar and see the health indices shoot up. Oh! and it will also employ atleast 1lakh people...I am all for NDA ruling for another 2 terms, but they have some serious misguided priorities.

[JayS]

Before taking such reports seriously one needs to make sure the methodology is correct or not.

The data in the GHI report pretty much agrees with data from GoI. The implication is that nutrition in India is not improving as fast as elsewhere in the world, which is why the country slipped in the rankings.

I saw yesterday, someone posted on twitter, analysis of GOI data over the years. There is a good improvement in the parameters it seems. May be we are not that good as some of the countries. But I refuse to believe we are worse than countries like BD. Last time I saw such outrage on how India is worse in infant deaths and malnutrition than Somalia. I mean come-on. One just has to open the eyes and see around the world to see how idiotic such reports look on paper. Another factor I have noticed is, such reports when come in MSM or popular science articles, they only lift sensationalizing part, out of context. When you actually see the original research work, the conclusions are with a whole lot of conditions apply, that the researchers mention, but journalists simply ignore. So I take them with some salt always. It has to make some common-sense first.

[jpremnath]

The data in the GHI report pretty much agrees with data from GoI. The implication is that nutrition in India is not improving as fast as elsewhere in the world, which is why the country slipped in the rankings.

I saw yesterday, someone posted on twitter, analysis of GOI data over the years. There is a good improvement in the parameters it seems. May be we are not that good as some of the countries. But I refuse to believe we are worse than countries like BD. Last time I saw such outrage on how India is worse in infant deaths and malnutrition than Somalia. I mean come-on. One just has to open the eyes and see around the world to see how idiotic such reports look on paper. Another factor I have noticed is, such reports when come in MSM or popular science articles, they only lift sensationalizing part, out of context. When you actually see the original research work, the conclusions are with a whole lot of conditions apply, that the researchers mention, but journalists simply ignore. So I take them with some salt always. It has to make some common-sense first.

Can you put those figures here?...Would like to see those improvements. Our health and social indices are low because we don't spend much on them..And this is mainly a state issue than a central govt one..a decent Mid day meal scheme, good primary education and extensive network of PHCs have done wonders in states where they have been implemented.

[JayS]

I saw yesterday, someone posted on twitter, analysis of GOI data over the years. There is a good improvement in the parameters it seems. May be we are not that good as some of the countries. But I refuse to believe we are worse than countries like BD. Last time I saw such outrage on how India is worse in infant deaths and malnutrition than Somalia. I mean come-on. One just has to open the eyes and see around the world to see how idiotic such reports look on paper. Another factor I have noticed is, such reports when come in MSM or popular science articles, they only lift sensationalizing part, out of context. When you actually see the original research work, the conclusions are with a whole lot of conditions apply, that the researchers mention, but journalists simply ignore. So I take them with some salt always. It has to make some common-sense first.

Can you put those figures here?...Would like to see those improvements. Our health and social indices are low because we don't spend much on them..And this is mainly a state issue than a central govt one..a decent Mid day meal scheme, good primary education and extensive network of PHCs have done wonders in states where they have been implemented.

https://twitter.com/EvilYindoo/status/9 ... 5913388032

Since the numbers were used to make political attacks on BJP, now there cannot be a constructive debate on this issue for some time at least. It looks like the GOI is doing things, may be not as much as it should be, but better than what congress has been doing for past 60 years.

[hanumadu]

http://thetruepicture.in/gujarats-agric ... i-miracle/

Beautiful article on how Gujarat's crop yield rose 80% from 2000-2001 to present. Lots of stats and figures.

Gujarat is largely a semi-arid to arid region. The success of Gujarat’s agricultural sector lies to a large extent in the reform initiatives taken by the state government after 2001, primarily in irrigation among other things. While Gujarat had started building check-dams long before, the number of check dams went up dramatically after 2001 spurring agricultural productivity. Gujarat also promoted drip irrigation to conserve water. Gujarat also simplified the procedures by making it easier for farmers to avail loans and subsidies.

The other major contributing factor was the Jyotigram scheme. The scheme provided regular, high-quality three-phase electricity to all villages, greatly helping farming. Additionally, separate electric feeders were provisioned for domestic use and for agricultural use.

[jpremnath]

Can you put those figures here?...Would like to see those improvements. Our health and social indices are low because we don't spend much on them..And this is mainly a state issue than a central govt one..a decent Mid day meal scheme, good primary education and extensive network of PHCs have done wonders in states where they have been implemented.

https://twitter.com/EvilYindoo/status/9 ... 5913388032

Since the numbers were used to make political attacks on BJP, now there cannot be a constructive debate on this issue for some time at least. It looks like the GOI is doing things, may be not as much as it should be, but better than what congress has been doing for past 60 years.

You are taking this as an attack on BJP. That was not my intention. I trust the figures in these tweets. The improvement is over 10 years. plus the NFHS survey began in 2015 which was just one year into NDA2 rule. We fell 3 numbers in the rankings as other countries have made more progress than us which is ok, as smaller countries can make faster progress with relatively less effort. Same way its easier for KL to improve on any figure with 33mil population than UP with its 200mil.
But our GDP and revenue collection went up faster in the last 3 years than in any of those countries barring China.Which should have enabled us to spend more on social sectors.So I am concerned about the drop in spending for Health and social service in the last 3 years. And the govt hasn't given a reason why spending less will improve the health and social indices. Does spending less indicate doing the right thing? Our govt hospitals/PHCs are rotting and understaffed. unless both states and central govt pull up their socks and do something, we will see the rest of the world just leave India in the dust.

[jpremnath]

http://thetruepicture.in/gujarats-agric ... i-miracle/

Beautiful article on how Gujarat's crop yield rose 80% from 2000-2001 to present. Lots of stats and figures.

Gujarat is largely a semi-arid to arid region. The success of Gujarat’s agricultural sector lies to a large extent in the reform initiatives taken by the state government after 2001, primarily in irrigation among other things. While Gujarat had started building check-dams long before, the number of check dams went up dramatically after 2001 spurring agricultural productivity. Gujarat also promoted drip irrigation to conserve water. Gujarat also simplified the procedures by making it easier for farmers to avail loans and subsidies.

The other major contributing factor was the Jyotigram scheme. The scheme provided regular, high-quality three-phase electricity to all villages, greatly helping farming. Additionally, separate electric feeders were provisioned for domestic use and for agricultural use.

Guj has been the unsung hero when it comes to agricultural revival. The rest of the states are dragging along. Hopefully the other arid states take the cue.

[JayS]

https://twitter.com/EvilYindoo/status/9 ... 5913388032

Since the numbers were used to make political attacks on BJP, now there cannot be a constructive debate on this issue for some time at least. It looks like the GOI is doing things, may be not as much as it should be, but better than what congress has been doing for past 60 years.

You are taking this as an attack on BJP. That was not my intention. I trust the figures in these tweets. The improvement is over 10 years. plus the NFHS survey began in 2015 which was just one year into NDA2 rule. We fell 3 numbers in the rankings as other countries have made more progress than us which is ok, as smaller countries can make faster progress with relatively less effort. Same way its easier for KL to improve on any figure with 33mil population than UP with its 200mil.
But our GDP and revenue collection went up faster in the last 3 years than in any of those countries barring China.Which should have enabled us to spend more on social sectors.So I am concerned about the drop in spending for Health and social service in the last 3 years. And the govt hasn't given a reason why spending less will improve the health and social indices. Does spending less indicate doing the right thing? Our govt hospitals/PHCs are rotting and understaffed. unless both states and central govt pull up their socks and do something, we will see the rest of the world just leave India in the dust.

I am not taking it as anything, or its not directed to you. The data is being used for political attack on BJP, its very evident from Twitter or some other articles in MSM which tried to twist and fudge facts and figure. What I wanted to say is that, in this background now its difficult to have a good constructive debate in public discourse. It will keep going back to the political colors.

The real problem we have is not less spending, but highly inefficient system due to Corruption which reduces the impact of the spending significantly. We almost never have any consolidation of efforts due to corruption. So until corruption is reduced to really low levels in public services, merely increasing spending is only going to help marginally. Other thing, every damn sector needs more money. GOI cannot take money from one sector and put in another (some leeway somewhere but not much). So effectively it means GOI needs to spend more. But unless the revenue increases, this is possible only by borrowing and increasing deficit. Which again is not possible now. So only possible way is to increase direct tax base significantly and a part of it used to offset indirect tax burden on lower strata so they have more money at hand to spend on education, food and health. While the rest can be used to increase spending. The current efforts seems to be on improving these macro parameters of our economy while also improving efficiency of public services by cleansing the system. But we still have a long way to go.

[Sridhar K]

^+108 to the post on agri revival in Guj.. For someone who lived in Saurashtra in 1999 2000 and revisited Gujarat on a full state tour in 2014, the agricultural growth was so visible to see.

[JayS]

^+108 to the post on agri revival in Guj.. For someone who lived in Saurashtra in 1999 2000 and revisited Gujarat on a full state tour in 2014, the agricultural growth was so visible to see.

I remember to have an article in TIME magazine on Guj agricultural revival in somewhere around 2012 or may be earlier (Can't remember exact year). The numbers were impressive. Gujrat has clocked 10+% growth for more than a decade in agri, far higher than the National avg of 3%.

[TKiran]

Deleted by moderator

Gerard sir, may I know the reason why my post was deleted?

[JayS]

Hindu diet of no or very little meat is one reason for that.

Some data would be good to back such sweeping statements.

[Katare]

Indian hunger Index report and GoI data reported in this thread.

[Supratik]

Ground report on MUDRA scheme.

http://inclusion.skoch.in/story/877/sko ... -1177.html

[Rahul M]

People blaming the GHI figures should know that Govt spending on social services including Education and Healthcare as % of budget has been the lowest in last 10 years. Around 5% of budget...this is pathetic.

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/vGyN2g ... erent.html
.....

not this hogwash again !

that drop in social sector spending was because the centre's share of the revenue that it spent on such services was directly given to the states to spend.
You sir, are making a political point in a thread on economics and the next politically motivated post will attract warnings.

[Austin]

What is the Total FDI India received till date since say 1991 when Economic Reforms were initiated by PVN Gov ? Thanks

[Deans]

^+108 to the post on agri revival in Guj.. For someone who lived in Saurashtra in 1999 2000 and revisited Gujarat on a full state tour in 2014, the agricultural growth was so visible to see.

I remember to have an article in TIME magazine on Guj agricultural revival in somewhere around 2012 or may be earlier (Can't remember exact year). The numbers were impressive. Gujrat has clocked 10+% growth for more than a decade in agri, far higher than the National avg of 3%.

Madhya Pradesh has also been a success story in agricultural growth over the last 10 years (even higher than Gujarat).
Last year, Maharashtra had 10% agri growth despite severe drought.

This unfortunately is not what the media, especially the English media, whose reporters have never been to `rural' ever reports.

[dipak]

I remember to have an article in TIME magazine on Guj agricultural revival in somewhere around 2012 or may be earlier (Can't remember exact year). The numbers were impressive. Gujrat has clocked 10+% growth for more than a decade in agri, far higher than the National avg of 3%.

Madhya Pradesh has also been a success story in agricultural growth over the last 10 years (even higher than Gujarat).
Last year, Maharashtra had 10% agri growth despite severe drought.

This unfortunately is not what the media, especially the English media, whose reporters have never been to `rural' ever reports.

Even if they go, they will not report it - since, it belongs to BJP ruled states. Had it been ruled by Pappu-party, they would certainly be singing hosannas over it.

[Sicanta]

Morgan Stanley bets on India, says world’s fastest growing economy to grow 10% per year for 10 years

http://www.financialexpress.com/economy ... ey/896195/

[ShauryaT]

State of the Economy

Many of the things wrong with India’s economy today are Unseen Effects of Demonetisation and the botched design of GST. Vivek Kaul join joins Amit Varma in episode 40 of The Seen and the Unseen to take stock.

[Katare]

There is one more reason for low weight/height of indian children that Modi pursued vigorously to fix in Gujrat and than folloing it up at national level too. Hygiene is very important to reduce infant from getting sick and be weakened for rest of their lives.

[Mort Walker]

There is one more reason for low weight/height of indian children that Modi pursued vigorously to fix in Gujrat and than folloing it up at national level too. Hygiene is very important to reduce infant from getting sick and be weakened for rest of their lives.

Clean water access is the key here. Disha pointed that out earlier in this thread or another.

[vijayk]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr
Centre to come up with Rs 1.2-lakh crore universal social security plan for poorest

The government has drafted an ambitious Rs 1.2 lakh crore plan to provide universal social security coverage for the poorest fifth of the country as part of a bigger scheme that’s being planned for all individuals.

This broader programme envisages three categories — the poorest 20%, who will get a government payout; those who subscribe on their own and formal sector workers who will need to set aside a fixed proportion of income toward the scheme.

[Prem]

NDTV and IMF have different view on Indian economy

[hanumadu]

GST is causing people's turnover to increase 10 fold.

Amit Phatak‏ @amphaa 4h4 hours ago
More
This ET Wealth query gives fair idea of level of under-reporting of numbers pre-GST. 10-fold increase in sales @Moneylifers @mihirssharma