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Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

All threads that are locked or marked for deletion will be moved to this forum. The topics will be cleared from this archive on the 1st and 16th of each month.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Mollick.R » 07 Nov 2017 19:59

GST could soon be in for the most comprehensive tweak since its launch

NEW DELHI: The goods and services tax could be in for a revamp that’s more comprehensive than the tweaks that have been made thus far to iron out kinks to make compliance less onerous. The GST Council has set up a new advisory group that includes industry representatives to look into such changes. Experts said these may apply to input credit apart from place of supply and valuation provisions.

The group will give its report to the law committee of the council by November 30. This will be reviewed by the committee and forwarded to the council for speedy action.
This is in addition to changes proposed to the composition scheme to bring relief to small businesses and traders that could be taken up by the GST Council at its upcoming meeting on November 10 in Guwahati. The council could also reduce the rate of tax on some goods from 28% to 18% at this meeting.


......... The GST Council had at its last meeting raised the turnover threshold for the composition scheme to Rs 1crore from Rs 75 lakh. It also set up a group of ministers under Assam finance minister Himanta Biswa Sarma to look at other issues related to taxation under the composition scheme and GST for restaurants. The council is expected to lower the flat tax rate for traders availing of the composition scheme to 0.5% from 1% if they include both taxable and tax-exempt goods in their turnover.


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/gst-could-soon-be-in-for-the-most-comprehensive-tweak-since-its-launch/articleshow/61522015.cms

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Mollick.R » 07 Nov 2017 20:00

Arun Jaitley hints at pruning more items in the 28% GST slab

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has hinted at pruning the list of items in the highest GST tax bracket of 28 per cent after revenue in the new regime equalise collections previously.

Items in the 28% slab include washing machines, refrigerators, electrical fittings, cement, ceiling fans, watches, automobiles, tobacco products, nutritional drinks, auto parts, plastic furniture and plywood..........................
..................


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/arun-jaitley-hints-at-pruning-more-items-in-the-28-gst-slab/articleshow/61543813.cms

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Mollick.R » 07 Nov 2017 20:02

Direct tax mop up rises 15% to Rs 4.39 lakh crore in April-October


The government has collected Rs 4.39 lakh crore in direct taxes, up 15.2 per cent year-on- year, during the first seven months of the current fiscal.
The collection, which includes personal income tax and corporate tax, represents 44.8 per cent of the total budget estimates of Rs 9.8 lakh crore in direct taxes for 2017-18.
"The provisional figures of Direct Tax collections up to October, 2017 show that net collections are at Rs 4.39 lakh crore which is 15.2 per cent higher than the net collections for the corresponding period of last year," a finance ministry statement said.


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/direct-tax-mop-up-rises-15-to-rs-4-39-lakh-crore-in-april-october/articleshow/61546377.cms

Cheers

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Mollick.R » 07 Nov 2017 20:07

GSTN develops robust system to handle last minute rush: CEO

After a shaky first year of existence, GSTN CEO Prakash Kumar today said the company handling the IT backbone of GST has put in place a robust tax filing system that can withstand last minute rush.



So far, more than 72 lakh businesses which were earlier registered with excise, service tax or VAT have already migrated to the GST regime, while over 30 lakh new businesses have come into the tax net.



More than 13 lakh taxpayers filed their GSTR-3B return for August on the last day, September 20. Similarly, for GSTR-1, load on the network was close to 7 lakh.
Since the roll out of GST on July 1, the GSTN portal has handled over 2.26 crore returns and collected revenue to the tune of Rs 2.78 lakh crore for the exchequer.


Lets see how much snag free it has been made by Infy. :?:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/gstn-develops-robust-system-to-handle-last-minute-rush-ceo/articleshow/61547430.cms

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vijayk » 08 Nov 2017 03:38

Image

Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 08 Nov 2017 10:46

World Steel statistics upto September 2017
We're looking good so far this year. Solid #3 spot just <3M tonnes of production behind Japan. We produce about as much steel as all the nations of former USSR combined. Almost 15MT more steel than USA. Those who grew up in the 70s and 80s would be shocked by these stats. Those were a time when it looked like those supapawas were far off in the distance never to be overtaken in their lifetimes.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Karthik S » 08 Nov 2017 10:57

Where do the Japanese use all that steel? Is there anything left to be built in Japan with their existing infra? China's production is 9 times ours. Ideally we should be close to that figure. With all infra projects coming up, I believe that ratio will become lesser in 5 years or so.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 08 Nov 2017 11:12

Japan produces a LOT of heavy industrial output. Automobiles, ships, appliances, and a lot of continuous fixed asset investment. We don't even produce as much steel rail as Indian Railways needs:
Indian steel shortfall causes clash over Railways demand for rail imports
India's steel and rail ministries are at loggerheads over the state-run network's proposal to buy much-needed rails from overseas, a move that would undermine Prime Minister Narendra Modi's drive to build key infrastructure in India.

India's Ministry of Railways, which manages the world's fourth-largest rail network, has grappled with a spate of accidents. Modi's government wants to overhaul the country's ageing tracks, but shortages of steel produced by state-run Steel Authority of IndiaBSE -0.76 % Ltd (SAILBSE -0.76 %) have slowed progress.

Indian Railways issued a tender seeking 717,000 tonnes of steel rails on Oct. 18, which was the first time the state-run railroad operator sought overseas rails. The tender could be worth an estimated 30 billion rupees ($464 million) for global steel majors such as ArcelorMittal and Thyssenkrupp .

That amount will make up SAIL's shortfall for the next two financial years.

"We require rails. SAIL is not able to deliver the rails. That's it," said Ashwani Lohani, the chairman of the Railway Board which manages Indian Railways for the Ministry of Railways.

Yes, we should be producing and consuming north of 250MT of steel as a sign of active industrial and infrastructural development. Ditto for cement production:
Growing well but could be faster:
Image
Cement usage is HEAVILY biased towards the better urbanized southern states:
Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vina » 08 Nov 2017 11:24

Suraj wrote:India's steel and rail ministries are at loggerheads over the state-run network's proposal to buy much-needed rails from overseas, a move that would undermine Prime Minister Narendra Modi's drive to build key infrastructure in India.

India's Ministry of Railways, which manages the world's fourth-largest rail network, has grappled with a spate of accidents. Modi's government wants to overhaul the country's ageing tracks, but shortages of steel produced by state-run Steel Authority of IndiaBSE -0.76 % Ltd (SAILBSE -0.76 %) have slowed progress.

Indian Railways issued a tender seeking 717,000 tonnes of steel rails on Oct. 18, which was the first time the state-run railroad operator sought overseas rails. The tender could be worth an estimated 30 billion rupees ($464 million) for global steel majors such as ArcelorMittal and Thyssenkrupp .

That amount will make up SAIL's shortfall for the next two financial years.

"We require rails. SAIL is not able to deliver the rails. That's it," said Ashwani Lohani, the chairman of the Railway Board which manages Indian Railways for the Ministry of Railways.


This is B.S . In India, "steel rails" was an exclusive monopoly of SAIL by fiat. IR was mandated to by from no one ELSE except SAIL. The capacity to make steel . Capacity to make rails in India exist in the private sector in India with Jindal Steel. IR , however would not by a single metre of rail from them , because of Govt fiat.

You don't need to run to the Japanese to buy steel rails. Capacity exists in India to make it . The only trouble is Make in India NOT = Make by SAIL.

Also, in a project like the Bullet Train, with the bulk of the financing tied to Japanese loans, there will be severe pressure to bail out Japanese industry and buy Japanese over all else. That is how the cookie crumbles. There is no free lunch. Japanese financing will be tied to sourcing Japanese excessively and that will include rails (in the name of "quality" or some such vague nonsense that will never be quantified..).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 08 Nov 2017 11:28

It doesn't matter if IR is contracted to purchase from SAIL - the fact remains that whoever's supposed to make steel isn't able to produce enough to meet IR's tender requirement. I agree though that importing steel doesn't solve anything, and the solution is to just enable IR to buy from private steelmakers.

There are specific terms to the HSR deal . This is not the place for speculation of could be / would be about random things. Please start your own astrology company ('Make in India') for that.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Karthik S » 08 Nov 2017 11:30

vina wrote:
Suraj wrote:India's steel and rail ministries are at loggerheads over the state-run network's proposal to buy much-needed rails from overseas, a move that would undermine Prime Minister Narendra Modi's drive to build key infrastructure in India.

India's Ministry of Railways, which manages the world's fourth-largest rail network, has grappled with a spate of accidents. Modi's government wants to overhaul the country's ageing tracks, but shortages of steel produced by state-run Steel Authority of IndiaBSE -0.76 % Ltd (SAILBSE -0.76 %) have slowed progress.

Indian Railways issued a tender seeking 717,000 tonnes of steel rails on Oct. 18, which was the first time the state-run railroad operator sought overseas rails. The tender could be worth an estimated 30 billion rupees ($464 million) for global steel majors such as ArcelorMittal and Thyssenkrupp .

That amount will make up SAIL's shortfall for the next two financial years.

"We require rails. SAIL is not able to deliver the rails. That's it," said Ashwani Lohani, the chairman of the Railway Board which manages Indian Railways for the Ministry of Railways.


This is B.S . In India, "steel rails" was an exclusive monopoly of SAIL by fiat. IR was mandated to by from no one ELSE except SAIL. The capacity to make steel . Capacity to make rails in India exist in the private sector in India with Jindal Steel. IR , however would not by a single metre of rail from them , because of Govt fiat.

You don't need to run to the Japanese to buy steel rails. Capacity exists in India to make it . The only trouble is Make in India NOT = Make by SAIL.

Also, in a project like the Bullet Train, with the bulk of the financing tied to Japanese loans, there will be severe pressure to bail out Japanese industry and buy Japanese over all else. That is how the cookie crumbles. There is no free lunch. Japanese financing will be tied to sourcing Japanese excessively and that will include rails (in the name of "quality" or some such vague nonsense that will never be quantified..).


Main benefit aside from obvious connectivity and development of adjacent areas is induction of new technology is our decades old railways system. Procurement of steel from India is not a benefit anyone's looking into. We have plenty of infra projects coming up for which steel will be sourced from within. BTW will be good if SAIL is dis-invested, world's largest steel company is owned by an Indian.
BTW, JICA loaned Delhi metro, was the steel sources from them for the project?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vina » 08 Nov 2017 11:43

Suraj wrote:It doesn't matter if IR is contracted to purchase from SAIL - the fact remains that whoever's supposed to make steel isn't able to produce enough to meet IR's tender requirement. I agree though that importing steel doesn't solve anything, and the solution is to just enable IR to buy from private steelmakers.

Sure. I just pointed out the fallacy that "We dont even make the steel in quantity that IR needs" and hence we should produce like "Japan" . That is plainly BS . Capacity exists in the private sector, (JSPL's rail plant is top drawer, intact, SAIL also upgraded it's Bhilai plant to roll out 130m long rails, the longest in the world ..), but rather than allowing IR to buy from within , we want IR to buy from ThyseenKrupp and ArcelorMittal.

Great way to "Make in India" .

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JayS » 08 Nov 2017 11:50

^^ Now IR has cleared the path for procurement from private industry.

Indian Railways floats global tender to get seven lakh tonnes of rail from private companies
https://scroll.in/latest/855682/indian- ... -companies

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 08 Nov 2017 11:50

vina wrote:
Suraj wrote:It doesn't matter if IR is contracted to purchase from SAIL - the fact remains that whoever's supposed to make steel isn't able to produce enough to meet IR's tender requirement. I agree though that importing steel doesn't solve anything, and the solution is to just enable IR to buy from private steelmakers.

Sure. I just pointed out the fallacy that "We dont even make the steel in quantity that IR needs" and hence we should produce like "Japan" . That is plainly BS . Capacity exists in the private sector, (JSPL's rail plant is top drawer, intact, SAIL also upgraded it's Bhilai plant to roll out 130m long rails, the longest in the world ..), but rather than allowing IR to buy from within , we want IR to buy from ThyseenKrupp and ArcelorMittal.

Great way to "Make in India" .

Sorry there's no fallacy there, because you created the strawman "We dont even make the steel in quantity that IR needs" and hence we should produce like "Japan"". That's a strawman entirely of your own creation. It makes no sense to anyone else because the context of "Japan" is your own creative idea. Please don't troll like this. It's tiresome to moderate.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vina » 08 Nov 2017 12:17

Deleted
Last edited by Suraj on 08 Nov 2017 12:27, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Poster banned for trolling

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 08 Nov 2017 17:12

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... f-cash-ban
Night Lights, Train Trips Help Study India's Cash Ban Impact
The slowdown is bolstering calls for satellite imagery to peer through the dust of India’s 600,000 villages to gauge activity and for analysis of ticketing across the nation’s vast railway network to study changes to economic migration patterns.

South Asians have long been pioneers of new statistical techniques. Between the 1960s to 1980s, Indians and Pakistanis helped the World Bank create models that have since evolved into modern development indicators, showing that living standards can be measured even in poor countries with large unorganized sectors.

"India was ahead of the world at one time on statistics and perhaps given how advanced it is in information technology it could, in a creative way, be ahead again," said Martin Rama, chief economist for the South Asia region of the World Bank. "Night light data captures informal economic activity, it is available at high levels of spatial disaggregation, it can be obtained in almost real time, it is relatively cheap to acquire, and it is not subject to politically-motivated interference."

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 12 Nov 2017 05:45

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busine ... 35941.html
"The latest economic indicators and the second quarter corporate results are pointing towards green shoots emerging and indicating that the worst is behind us and the economy seems to be in recovery mode. "

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby VinodTK » 14 Nov 2017 04:17

India to overtake Japan to become third largest economy by 2028
Mumbai: India is likely to achieve strong growth over the next decade and will overtake Japan in nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2028, to emerge as the world's third largest economy, says a foreign brokerage report.

The country has already overtaken Brazil and Russia to emerge as the second largest BRIC economy after China and is well on track to cross France and Britain to emerge as the world's fifth largest economy after Germany by 2019.

"We see India crossing Germany and Japan in nominal GDP in dollar term by 2028. This assumes that the Indian economy grows at 10 per cent (in nominal US GDP) in the next decade, well ahead of Japans 1.6 per cent," a Bank of America Merrill Lynch report said on Monday.

The American brokerage has conservatively projected the country's real GDP growth at 7 per cent potential.

Last year the economy closed at USD 2.26 trillion. But the report did not quantify the size of the economy by 2028 when it would be the third largest after China and the US.

The report titled, India 2028: The last BRICK in the Wall, said falling dependency ratios, financial maturity and increasing incomes and affordability are the three key drivers for the country to stand among the large emerging economies.

"First, falling dependency ratios should raise savings and investment rates. Second, financial maturity, due to financial liberalisation and inclusion, should continue to lower lending rates structurally. Finally, increasing incomes and affordability will likely underpin the emergence of mass markets, supporting an expected 7 per cent real GDP growth," the report said.

It said the dependency ratio (unproductive population in the 0-14 and over-65 age group) is slated to fall to 46.2 per cent in 2028 from 52.2 per cent now and 71.7 per cent in 1990. This should sustain the savings rate at 32 per cent of GDP, at the least, in 2028, comparable to 31.4 per cent during 2000-17, up from 20.5 per cent in the 1980s and the 1990s.

A rising savings rate should push the investment rate up to 35 per cent of GDP in 2028 from 32.4 per cent in 2017 and 22.1 per cent in the 1980s and the 1990s.
This assumes a sustainable current account deficit of 2-2.5 per cent of GDP.

"This, in turn, should lift growth to 10 per cent from 7.1 per cent last fiscal holding the incremental capital output ratio at current 4.8 levels," the report said.

The credit to GDP ratio, a proxy for financial maturity, will likely climb to 83 per cent of GDP from 44 per cent (2001-17) and 25 per cent during the 1980s and the 1990s driven by financial extension and inclusion, emergence of financial products and financial market development.

The report expects the countrys growth to be driven by services.

It further said RBI will recoup forex reserves compared to falling import cover. "We continue to expect RBI to recoup forex reserves to guard against contagion in contrast to import cover almost halving since 2008. This should contain depreciation to 3 per cent a year over the next 10 years," the report said.

The brokerage said the country is witnessing the emergence of mass markets powered by rising incomes, on the demand side, as well as economies of scale, on the supply side.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Rishirishi » 14 Nov 2017 04:31

I would like to point out that manufacturing capability is not what makes a nation. Indian companies could 10fold the production within a few years.
The whole game is about creating the DEMAND and market for those products.

So how do you create domestic demand??

By letting people borrow at a low interest rate. This is where all the new bank accounts in rural areas come in. With the accounts it will be possible to administer smaller loans. Small loans will enable people to invest in hosues and businesses. You also need a good leagal system to settle disputes.

While everyone is going GAGA over the Chinease miracle, people do not really seem to understand the value of Rural banking and revamp of legal system may bring to India.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby periaswamy » 14 Nov 2017 08:29

Before loans are given out, shouldn't there be a credit rating system in place to encourage responsible borrowers and track the defaulters? All those political "loan melas" in the past handed out free money to people with no intention of paying the money back. Perhaps things will be done differently this time around.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Deans » 14 Nov 2017 08:50

periaswamy wrote:Before loans are given out, shouldn't there be a credit rating system in place to encourage responsible borrowers and track the defaulters? All those political "loan melas" in the past handed out free money to people with no intention of paying the money back. Perhaps things will be done differently this time around.


Default rates among the poor and first time borrowers are far lower than among `favored' Industrialists.
A company like Bhushan steel has defaulted on an amount greater than the entire farm loan waiver of UP.
There is a higher default rate of student loans taken by affluent students going to top Universities abroad, than among poorer students who want
to study in India.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby periaswamy » 14 Nov 2017 09:06

Deans: Default rates among the poor and first time borrowers are far lower than among `favored' Industrialists.


Yes, no doubt. This has been demonstrated many times in Grameen Bank type experiments. I just mean that over time, the system has to incentivize good behavior, and not depend on the notion that the behavior of the borrowers will remain the same. Humans tend to game systems like this over time.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Mort Walker » 14 Nov 2017 22:44



Not good enough. For strategic impact by 2030 India must have a $10T GDP.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Prem » 15 Nov 2017 01:03

Mort Walker wrote:


Not good enough. For strategic impact by 2030 India must have a $10T GDP.

We will be b'ween 9-10 T in 2030

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Dipanker » 15 Nov 2017 02:17

Prem wrote: We will be b'ween 9-10 T in 2030


For that a growth rate of 10 to 11% is required. Last quarter it was 5.7%.

So the question is how do we raise the growth rate from 5.7% to 11% ?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 15 Nov 2017 02:29

Nominal vs real growth rates! Nominal GDP growth rate last quarter was ~9.5% and that was at the lowest point in Q1. It's been above double digits continuously before that.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Rishirishi » 15 Nov 2017 04:31

Deans wrote:
periaswamy wrote:Before loans are given out, shouldn't there be a credit rating system in place to encourage responsible borrowers and track the defaulters? All those political "loan melas" in the past handed out free money to people with no intention of paying the money back. Perhaps things will be done differently this time around.


Default rates among the poor and first time borrowers are far lower than among `favored' Industrialists.
A company like Bhushan steel has defaulted on an amount greater than the entire farm loan waiver of UP.
There is a higher default rate of student loans taken by affluent students going to top Universities abroad, than among poorer students who want
to study in India.


As the bank accounts are linked to Adhar, it is hard to just "vanish" without paying. Poorer sections of the society use the capital very productively. Now it will become simpler to lend to poorer sections of the society at low interest rates.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby periaswamy » 15 Nov 2017 06:54

Poorer sections of the society use the capital very productively. Now it will become simpler to lend to poorer sections of the society at low interest rates.


It is a fine idea to provide credit to people in general, and more so to the poorer sections -- that is not relevant to what I am pointing out.

I am not sure such generalizations as "they will all use capital productively" can be made of any large group of people -- people who use capital more effectively and productively should be encouraged by the system, while those who do not must be incentivized to do so. I don't think it is beyond Indian tech to build this kind of credit-rating system on top of Aadhar -- I remember some previous or current RBI governor mentioning something like this. Cannot remember who. Just saying it would be worthwhile to layer this kind of framework as some sort of feedback mechanism for the lending framework.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Deans » 15 Nov 2017 11:28

More important than linking bank accounts to Aadhar is having a bank account itself. The opening of 200 million new bank accounts in the first 2 years of this govt, (ensuring that almost every household has a bank account) is unprecedented in banking history globally. Coupled with increased availability of credit under MUDRA (contingent on NPA's being tackled) and bank recapitalisation - both of which are being done, credit to previously unbanked people should increase exponentially.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 15 Nov 2017 18:48

http://indianexpress.com/article/explai ... a-4937749/
India’s economy is a house under renovation, it will be dirty, uncomfortable for a while: Neelkanth Mishra
Credit Suisse India Equity Strategist Neelkanth Mishra explains the slowdown and why he thinks GST won’t solve the problem immediately, impact of demonetisation, and the way forward — to the extent that the current ‘fog’ will let him see.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby nam » 15 Nov 2017 20:00

Rishirishi wrote:I would like to point out that manufacturing capability is not what makes a nation. Indian companies could 10fold the production within a few years.


I have to disagree. The differentiating factor is what a country produces and how much/fast can it produce & sell.

Saudi is rich, produces hot air, fights war with American weapons.

UK, tiny country, manufactures technology advanced stuff, spreads power.
USSR was a super power, not because of country size or oil, because the stuff it produced. Even today with it's 1/6 of US economy, it is power next to US.
You got to see US's 1 trillion export list. It shows why it is a super power.

There is no point Indian companies producing to sell to Indians. They need to produce and sell what the world wants. That revenue will drive Indian demand, not interest rate cut's.
Last edited by nam on 15 Nov 2017 20:03, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Zynda » 15 Nov 2017 20:03

Indian students in US dwarf America’s FDI in India, spend whopping $6.54 bn

Indian students spent a massive $6.54 billion in the US in 2016-17, up 30% from the previous year, dwarfing the North American country’s foreign direct investment (FDI) of $2.37 billion in India. Of course, a large part of US FDI routed through low-tax jurisdictions like Mauritius is not counted here, although recent changes in tax treaties have made the route a bit less attractive. Among large countries, India was outstripped by China in 2009-10 to become the largest place of origin of students coming to the US, with correspondingly high spending. However, in recent years India has been bridging the gap with a scorching pace of growth in students it sends to the US — 29% in 2014-15, 25% in 2015-16 and 12.3% in 2016-17. Between 2010-11 to 2012-13, when the global financial meltdown hit the US economy badly, there was negative growth in Indian students going to that country. Chinese students spent $12.55 billion in the US in 2016-17, up about 10%.

According to Open Doors, a study by the Institute of International Education along with the US government’s education department, students from India and China now represent approximately 50% of the total enrolment of 1.08 million international students in the US. Indian students comprise 17.3% of all international students in the US, it added. The continued growth in international students coming to the US for higher education has had a significant positive impact on its economy. About 1.08 million international students studying at US colleges and universities contributed $36.9 billion and supported more than 450,000 jobs to its economy during 2016-2017, said NAFSA, an association of international educators.

Open Doors reported that about two-thirds of all international students receive the majority of their funds from sources outside of the US, including personal and family sources as well as assistance from their home country governments or universities. Interestingly, the number of US students coming to India to study for academic credit at their home university has been on the decline since 2013-14 and it fell by 5.8% to 4,181 in 2015-16, as they increasingly prefer European countries. India’s rank in terms of outbound destination for US students also declined to 15 from 13.

periaswamy
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby periaswamy » 15 Nov 2017 21:37

Found a link with story but not what I was looking for. RBI mulls credit agency to improve credit culture.

link

Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 16 Nov 2017 00:38

New GST rates to lower consumer inflation by 20bps: Nomura
Decision to lower GST (goods and services tax) rates on over 200 items could help pull down retail inflation by 20 basis points from the current levels driven by lower food and beverage prices, says a report. Retail or CPI inflation rose to 7-month high of 3.58 per cent in October, driven up by costlier food items, particularly vegetables. According to global financial services major Nomura, recent decision by the central government to lower tax rates for 213 items including 178 items of daily consumer use is likely to lower CPI inflation by about 20 basis points (0.2 per cent). “The government expects these (GST) measures to be disinflationary. Our quantitative analysis suggests that if (a big if) the GST tax changes are fully passed on to consumers, they would lower CPI inflation by estimated 20 basis points,” Nomura said.

Improving rural living standards drive demand for higher quality goods and services: SBI
The demand for quality goods and services is increasing in rural India reflecting improvement in living standards, an SBI report said today. “The good thing is that prices of discretionary consumption in rural areas has been on a declining trend since 2015-16. “One possible reason for such is that big manufacturing / FMCG companies have significantly revved up their distribution channels in rural areas,” SBI said in its ‘Ecowrap’. The SBI has factored in items of discretionary consumption as soft drinks, prepared meals, snacks, recreational and amusement, and personal care, among other things in the report. In India, it said the consumption pattern of the people has been continuously changing with the change in their livelihood, mostly in rural areas.

GSTN utility for exporters to claim refunds to go live tonight
Merchant exporters can start claiming tax refunds using the new utility that will be activated on the GST Network portal tonight, GSTN CEO Prakash Kumar said. With the new utility RFD-1A, a merchant exporter can claim refund of GST paid at the time of buying goods which he has exported in the relevant month. “GST RFD-1A for refund of input tax credit on export of goods and services and additional amount in cash ledger would go live on GSTN portal tonight,” Kumar told PTI. The refund claims can be filled for July-September and that would be matched with the corresponding GSTR-3B filed by the exporter. Earlier, GSTN had launched the utility for processing refund claims by manufacturing exporters who had paid Integrated GST (IGST) while exporting goods.

India services export flat at $14 bn in September, import grows
Services export of India remained flat at USD 13.73 billion in September year-on-year while import slightly picked up to USD 8.45 billion, showed RBI data. In September 2016, India had exported services worth USD 13.77 billion. The import grew 1.7 per cent from USD 8.30 billion last year. In August 2017, the services export was USD 13.7 billion while the import came in at USD 8.66 billion.

Cumulatively, the services export during April-September read USD 80.33 billion. Import of services was valued at USD 46.74 billion in the first half of the fiscal, showed the data on India’s International Trade in Services released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). India is one of the major economies contributing to the world services export industry.

India's trade composition for H1 2017-18:

Merchandise exports: $147 billion
Merchandise imports (incl oil): $219 billion
Total merchandise trade volume: $366 billion
Merchandise trade surplus/-deficit: -$72 billion

Services exports: $80 billion
Services imports: $46 billion
Total services trade volume: $126 billion
Services trade surplus/-deficit: $34 billion

Total exports: $227 billion
Total imports: $265 billion
Total trade volume: $492 billion
Total trade surplus/-deficit: -$38 billion

We should hit $1 trillion in total trade volume for the full year this year, for the first time.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby VenkataS » 16 Nov 2017 04:37

I remember seeing a discussion about this several years ago. We were on pace to hit $1 trillion in trade volume in early 2010s but faltered along the way. Total merchandise trade volume actually decreased from $760 billion in 2011 to $758 billion in 2015. Hopefully that will not be the case going forward.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vijayk » 16 Nov 2017 08:40

Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby VinodTK » 17 Nov 2017 09:13

India's Credit Rating Upgraded by Moody's in Boost for Modi
Moody’s Investors Service raised India’s sovereign bond rating for the first time since 2004, citing continued progress in economic and institutional reforms.

The ratings firm upgraded India to Baa2 from Baa3 and said reforms being pushed through by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government will help stabilize rising levels of debt. That’s a shift from Moody’s lowest investment-grade ranking to the second lowest.

The surprise move comes even as India surrendered its status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy amid sweeping policy change. Growth slipped below 6 percent in the April-June quarter, sparking expectations that the government will need to unleash fiscal stimulus. Markets welcomed the move, even as some cautioned the response will be limited given the ongoing challenges that the economy faces.

"This is a positive surprise to the markets, especially in terms of timing," said Vivek Rajpal, a rates strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Singapore. “One fear that was developing in the market was debt-flow positioning.”

Non-deliverable rupee forwards rose, with one-month contracts climbing 0.8 percent. Spreads on dollar bonds from Indian companies tightened by around 5 basis points, according to traders who are not authorized to speak publicly and asked not to be identified. Stock futures in Singapore jumped as much as 1.2 percent.

Modi has pushed through sweeping reforms, with mixed results. Last year’s removal from circulation of almost 90 percent of the nation’s currency weighed on growth. Other measures -- such as efforts to cut red tape and the imposition of a new consumption tax -- have met with mixed success. The government won praise from ratings firms for a $32 billion program to recapitalize banks that economists say will revive lending and stoke demand on the ground.

"While India’s high debt burden remains a constraint on the country’s credit profile, Moody’s believes that the reforms put in place have reduced the risk of a sharp increase in debt, even in potential downside scenarios," according to the firm’s release.

Moody’s cited the goods and services tax, which it said will promote productivity by removing barriers to interstate trade, improvements to the monetary policy framework, measures to clean up non-performing loans, and efforts to bring more areas into the formal economy.

It noted most of the measures will take time for their impact to be felt, while some -- such as GST and demonetization -- have undermined growth in the near term. Moody’s forecast GDP growth of 6.7 percent for the fiscal year ended March 2018, with a pick up to 7.5 percent in the following year and "similarly robust" levels from 2019 onward.

The upgrade comes after Indian sovereign bonds were sold off this week as consumer prices rose more than expected. The benchmark 10-year yield advanced past 7 percent on Tuesday for the first time since September 2016.

Moody’s is looking through the near-term political cycle ahead of state polls when "populism may overshadow reform momentum," according to Vishnu Varathan, Singapore-based head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. The afterglow from the upgrade won’t last long given the emerging signs of quickening inflation and a widening current account and fiscal deficit, Varathan said.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vijayk » 17 Nov 2017 11:07

Image

Image

:lol: :lol:

vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vijayk » 17 Nov 2017 11:34

Prasanna Karthik R‏
@prasannakarthik
Follow Follow @prasannakarthik
More
1998: #Moody rates India as "Junk".
1998-2004: Vajpayee unleashe economic reforms.
2004: #Moody upgrades India under Vajpayee.
2004-2014: India submerged under corruption.
2014: Reform begin under Modi.
2017: #Moody further upgrades India.

pankajs
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby pankajs » 17 Nov 2017 11:41

Yes it is odd because it does not suit their narrative. If it was a negative report it would have been lapped up by the same folks.

When Yeshwanth Sinha went all out against Modi/BJP after GST I had written that we are past the low point. I couldn't have thought of a better contra indicator. Now we see other financial sector actors comming around to that view.

Now wether these merchants of doom like it or not a WB/IMF/Moody's endorsement does influence global investors especially the institutional investors because their mandate is often tied to rating awarded by these institutions.

Edit to correct autocorrect.
Last edited by pankajs on 17 Nov 2017 11:49, edited 2 times in total.


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