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Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Austin
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Austin » 03 Nov 2017 10:45

Raghuram Rajan


Sicanta
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Sicanta » 04 Nov 2017 10:10

Report of the Household Finance Committee - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationR ... ID=877#EXE

Sicanta
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Sicanta » 04 Nov 2017 11:43

The precarious state of Indian household finances

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/u5gwrDB ... ances.html

Supratik
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 05 Nov 2017 00:08

Services PMI rises in Oct. Waiting for manu PMI.

http://www.livemint.com/Home-Page/MHbiu ... emand.html

krisna
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby krisna » 05 Nov 2017 06:15



talk by Nilesh shah MD of kotak mahindra
humurous talk on economy. is hugely positive.

rkirankr
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby rkirankr » 05 Nov 2017 19:10

How much is the so called anger in Gujarat which TV is showing and going to affect the elections

disha
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby disha » 05 Nov 2017 20:18

^Zero

arvin
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby arvin » 05 Nov 2017 20:43

>>talk by Nilesh shah MD of kotak mahindra

Thanks for link. Enjoyed it a lot. Lot of it can be used against those planning black day on Nov 8.


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby disha » 06 Nov 2017 11:27

News brief:

India Planning 100 New Airports: With an estimated investment of Rs 4 lakh crore, India is planning to expand connectivity and meet potential demand by establishing about 100 new airports – doubling the current number – in 15 years, Minister of State for Aviation Jayant Sinha said. Of these, 70 will be locations that don’t have such a facility, while the rest will be second airports or the expansion of existing airfields to handle commercial flights. “We need to get out of that incremental trap and think for the future and take a long-term view. We will need to add about 100 new airports, as aviation in India grows.” India has 100 operational airports and is the fastest-growing aviation market in terms of domestic passenger growth. The plan will be largely driven by the private sector, Sinha said.


Hold on to your pants! This is zoom zoom zoom as predicted.

prahaar
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby prahaar » 06 Nov 2017 14:23

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 499298.cms (Banks give wrong UID numbers of 20 lakh loan waiver beneficiaries)

Not sure if this was discussed before. But the impact on funds leakage will have a significant impact on the exchequer. But one question to Gurus regarding the above article? Is the wrong data problem limited to coops or is it sector wide? The percentage of fake/incorrect data is staggering to put it mildly.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Deans » 06 Nov 2017 15:21

It says the possible scam was averted by use of Aadhar. But yes, any difference in interest rates will always attract scammers who will claim loans a a beneficial rate of interest in collusion with bank officials. Yes one more reason why aadhar linking and verification is a must.


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JayS » 06 Nov 2017 17:10

Deans wrote:It says the possible scam was averted by use of Aadhar. But yes, any difference in interest rates will always attract scammers who will claim loans a a beneficial rate of interest in collusion with bank officials. Yes one more reason why aadhar linking and verification is a must.


GOI needs to run periodic loops of re-verification to weed out fake AADHAR cards. The AADHAR distribution in its initial phase has been quite shoddy (even though it was done by private company, I have seen it first hand). Its not a reliable database to rely on it fully. We see rohingyas and BDeshis and god knows who all getting AADHAR cards. Many fake/ghost AADHAR must have been created for all sort of purposes.

yensoy
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby yensoy » 06 Nov 2017 17:35

disha wrote:News brief:

India Planning 100 New Airports: With an estimated investment of Rs 4 lakh crore, India is planning to expand connectivity and meet potential demand by establishing about 100 new airports – doubling the current number – in 15 years, Minister of State for Aviation Jayant Sinha said. Of these, 70 will be locations that don’t have such a facility, while the rest will be second airports or the expansion of existing airfields to handle commercial flights. “We need to get out of that incremental trap and think for the future and take a long-term view. We will need to add about 100 new airports, as aviation in India grows.” India has 100 operational airports and is the fastest-growing aviation market in terms of domestic passenger growth. The plan will be largely driven by the private sector, Sinha said.


Hold on to your pants! This is zoom zoom zoom as predicted.


I don't have much hope for this "initiative".

The problem in India is that many of the existing airports are bursting beyond their seams. Mumbai is the finest example. We need one huge airport in Mumbai/Navi Mumbai much like Delhi/Blr/Hyd - with adequate space to expand and lay multiple runways, and with excellent connectivity to the city. BTW, Delhi itself is running out of space and projected to hit the magic 100 million mark if facilities can keep up.

Anyone can clear a patch of land, lay some concrete, build a shed and say they have built an airport in an underserved area (i.e. a place where nobody wants to fly to, and where land is available cheap). This kind of metric (100 airports) is ripe to be gamed; only recently there were news items showing the absolute lack of passengers in some airport (Durgapur, Jaisalmer etc) http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/why-8-indian-airports-with-zero-flights-or-passengers-highlight-growth-risks/1/459553.html.

Finally, India is not a huge country. Even the existing airports can serve the country rather well if road connectivity across the country is improved.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 06 Nov 2017 18:04

First set of demo discrepancy actions to start.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 523436.cms

nam
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby nam » 06 Nov 2017 18:41

JayS wrote:
GOI needs to run periodic loops of re-verification to weed out fake AADHAR cards. The AADHAR distribution in its initial phase has been quite shoddy (even though it was done by private company, I have seen it first hand). Its not a reliable database to rely on it fully. We see rohingyas and BDeshis and god knows who all getting AADHAR cards. Many fake/ghost AADHAR must have been created for all sort of purposes.


Doesn't Adhaar check for duplicate records(finger print and iris records)? There was a case reported in paper where some reporter tried to create duplicate adhaar with different names to prove it was faulty. He was duly caught and arrested.

Those who try to create fake adhaar, will be successful. That itself is not a problem, as they will be known under the fake name everywhere they go.

GoI should not remove these fake profile, they should be flagged off, so that the guy is caught every time and anywhere in India. Once he is in adhaar he cannot escape.

JayS
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JayS » 06 Nov 2017 20:09

nam wrote:
JayS wrote:
GOI needs to run periodic loops of re-verification to weed out fake AADHAR cards. The AADHAR distribution in its initial phase has been quite shoddy (even though it was done by private company, I have seen it first hand). Its not a reliable database to rely on it fully. We see rohingyas and BDeshis and god knows who all getting AADHAR cards. Many fake/ghost AADHAR must have been created for all sort of purposes.


Doesn't Adhaar check for duplicate records(finger print and iris records)? There was a case reported in paper where some reporter tried to create duplicate adhaar with different names to prove it was faulty. He was duly caught and arrested.

Those who try to create fake adhaar, will be successful. That itself is not a problem, as they will be known under the fake name everywhere they go.

GoI should not remove these fake profile, they should be flagged off, so that the guy is caught every time and anywhere in India. Once he is in adhaar he cannot escape.


Flagging as duplicate/bogus is just one way of weeding out. Thing is if AADHAR is to be base of everything under the Sun, the database needs to be robust and secure.

Mukesh.Kumar
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 06 Nov 2017 23:16

Supratik wrote:First set of demo discrepancy actions to start.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 523436.cms



Great to see Mort Walkerji in active in the comments section. Pliss to keep BRF jhanda flying.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby prahaar » 07 Nov 2017 00:35

The problem with Aadhar currently is that there are not sufficient cross linkages to verify if an AADHAR number is in the system is valid. According to me, since Aadhar is used as a key to connect different DBs, it is prudent to have Aadhar validity checked at key places. A need for manual request for validation is akin bound to be insufficient. These should be in the plans, but it requires greater system integration.

The impact on credit ratings, etc. will be massive. JayS, the mandate of AADHAR (as per law) is not proof of citizenship.

nam
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby nam » 07 Nov 2017 01:05

prahaar wrote:The problem with Aadhar currently is that there are not sufficient cross linkages to verify if an AADHAR number is in the system is valid. According to me, since Aadhar is used as a key to connect different DBs, it is prudent to have Aadhar validity checked at key places. A need for manual request for validation is akin bound to be insufficient. These should be in the plans, but it requires greater system integration.

The impact on credit ratings, etc. will be massive. JayS, the mandate of AADHAR (as per law) is not proof of citizenship.


Adhaar number has no value. You can use it to link bank account, pan, mobile etc because you cannot write down biomteric details, however it is not a identification code and cannot be used as such.

Having biometric identification as the foundation of Indian economy is path breaking. There is no more hiding.

Who you are (adhaar) and how much is your value(demon). Two fundamental question of an economy has been answered.

disha
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby disha » 07 Nov 2017 01:11

yensoy wrote:I don't have much hope for this "initiative".

The problem in India is that many of the existing airports are bursting beyond their seams. Mumbai is the finest example. We need one huge airport in Mumbai/Navi Mumbai much like Delhi/Blr/Hyd - with adequate space to expand and lay multiple runways, and with excellent connectivity to the city. BTW, Delhi itself is running out of space and projected to hit the magic 100 million mark if facilities can keep up.


There are two different aspects you are bringing in.

First is., is there a demand for 100+ airports and second is money spent differently or is the plan cohesive? My take was orthogonal., an infrastructure boost is happening.

Coming to can the money spent differently., probably. Is the plan cohesive - maybe. Just because the previous government did an NREGA equivalent on some airports does not mean the current GOI will be uncohesive.

On the demand for 100+ airports., I think it is there.

This kind of metric (100 airports) is ripe to be gamed; only recently there were news items showing the absolute lack of passengers in some airport (Durgapur, Jaisalmer etc) http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/why-8-indian-airports-with-zero-flights-or-passengers-highlight-growth-risks/1/459553.html.


It is better than no airport at all! In fact there is enough incentive above for sub-regional and regional carriers to come through and start small flights from Delhi/Mumbai/Ahmedabad/Jaipur in peak season. There is enough demand., but a spark needs to happen (hotels need to send their pickups/drop offs., connectivity to major metros so that travelers can actually travel!) to get the people over there.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Mort Walker » 07 Nov 2017 02:21

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
Supratik wrote:First set of demo discrepancy actions to start.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 523436.cms



Great to see Mort Walkerji in active in the comments section. Pliss to keep BRF jhanda flying.


I’ve never posted in ToI-let. So it is some imposter whom I agree with. :)

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Sicanta » 07 Nov 2017 04:31

UPI transaction volume hits 76.8 million in October

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/0XWmnn ... tober.html

All banks set to align digital payment solutions under Bhim

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ar ... aign=cppst

Paytm integrates BHIM UPI on its platform in bid to double user base

http://www.livemint.com/Companies/QFB6k ... ble-u.html

Pratyush
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Pratyush » 07 Nov 2017 07:56

Speaking of UPI. I made my first commercial use of upi at big bazaar this month. The QR code was generated by the POS machine it self.

Super simple. Super convenient.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vijayk » 07 Nov 2017 10:02

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 537108.cms
Buzz is back in rural markets after 9 months



After remaining lackadaisical for nearly nine months, rural growth is gradually showing signs of improvement thanks to three key reasons. Real rural wage growth remains strong at 5%, the highest in four years, while nominal wage growth has been largely stable, according to the labour ministry. The hike in minimum support price is the most in the past two years. And, monsoon has been normal for the second year in a row.

ndia’s largest car maker Maruti Suzuki’s rural sales volume grew 22%, outperforming the total by five percentage points. Hero MotoCorpBSE 0.57 %, which gets half its sales from the rural market, indicated that it’s gradually catching up with urban sales. Mahindra Bolero utility vehicle, sold mostly in rural areas, rose 48% in the first half of FY18 to 41,222 units.

Tractors sales have picked up too with first-half growth at 22% compared with a 20% contraction in the first half of FY 16

On the consumer goods side, Dabur’s rural sales volume rose 15% in the quarter. Marico’s rural growth, in value terms, was 14% compared with 10% in urban areas. Godrej Consumer’s rural growth outperformed that of the urban market.

Mukesh.Kumar
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 07 Nov 2017 11:50

Mort Walker wrote:
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:

Great to see Mort Walkerji in active in the comments section. Pliss to keep BRF jhanda flying.


I’ve never posted in ToI-let. So it is some imposter whom I agree with. :)


Thats a development. Seems people outside BRF are reading this forum closely and spreading the news. Too much of a coincidence. When someone is using your nomme de plumme and speaking of same ideas muddy say you have got a convert

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JayS » 07 Nov 2017 12:08

prahaar wrote:JayS, the mandate of AADHAR (as per law) is not proof of citizenship.


But non-Indian cannot have an AADHAR card, as per law. Not even NRI are entitled to have one AFAIK. So any non-Indian getting AADHAR card basically enables him/her to get undue benefits of various schemes and getting other documents, bank accounts, SIM etc is easy-peasy with AADHAR card. (the process of giving AADHAR in first round was so shoddy that practically anyone could have got AADHAR card. They were giving local Municipal Corporator's introduction letter to anyone who did not have address proof saying the corporator knows this person for last 10 or 20yrs living in this area. Letter on Corporator's letter head without the Corporator personally being present there. This is how Congress has given ration cards to BDeshis over so many years, AADHAR was no different). Thing is with so many loopholes, AADHAR should not become basis of anything and everything. Weeding out is much easier now, later it will be difficult. Same has happened with Ration card previously.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby prahaar » 07 Nov 2017 12:31

No disagreements with whatever you have written above. I am referring the need for increased checks in the use or application of AADHAR (more technical, easier to solve with the current GOI dispensation achievements). You are referring to the need for increased robustness in the allocation of AADHAR numbers which is also a political issue (apparently).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JayS » 07 Nov 2017 12:39

prahaar wrote:No disagreements with whatever you have written above. I am referring the need for increased checks in the use or application of AADHAR (more technical, easier to solve with the current GOI dispensation achievements). You are referring to the need for increased robustness in the allocation of AADHAR numbers which is also a political issue (apparently).


Actually I started with "need of periodic re-verification to weed out fake/illegal AADHAR cards". Shoddy allocation process is a cause, its done now. Can't do anything about it. So weeding out is only option. Agree with you that GOI can use other databases to cross-verify. Robustness comes from both, elimination at the entry level and maintaining the database over the years as a lot of data is dynamic.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Gus » 07 Nov 2017 13:42

what is a fake Aadhaar card? the number is linked biometrically to a person and it is only generated after the process finds the biometric as unique. Aadhaar is not proof of citizenship, so even if a illegal BD gets it, it does not establish the illegal BD as bonafide Indian citizen.

the only issue I saw with the process was - this came in the news a couple months ago I think - that a group was able to create fake fingerprint profiles by altering data and with the help of compromised aadhaar entry staff, they managed to get the system to issue aadhaar number for these fake people who don't exist in real life. I guess the intent was to use these numbers to connect to duplicate PANs and shift income to that profile.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JayS » 07 Nov 2017 14:49

Gus wrote:what is a fake Aadhaar card? the number is linked biometrically to a person and it is only generated after the process finds the biometric as unique. Aadhaar is not proof of citizenship, so even if a illegal BD gets it, it does not establish the illegal BD as bonafide Indian citizen.

the only issue I saw with the process was - this came in the news a couple months ago I think - that a group was able to create fake fingerprint profiles by altering data and with the help of compromised aadhaar entry staff, they managed to get the system to issue aadhaar number for these fake people who don't exist in real life. I guess the intent was to use these numbers to connect to duplicate PANs and shift income to that profile.


Looks like you yourself have answered what is a Fake Aadhar Card. About Aadhar cards given to non-Indians, I hope you would agree they need to be cancelled. No one is asking it to be used as "Citizenship Proof" or deporting BDeshis based on AADHAR verification. Why is the confusion then..? AADHAR should not be generated only based on unique biometric data. Then you can give it to anyone on the planet. You need to know that the unique data belongs to some Indian. It is meant for Indian citizen, thus verification beyond mere uniqueness on biometric data is needed. This was grossly lacking and AADHAR was distributed to all and sundry without due verification process on identity and address proofs. Thus the need for weeding. As such Passport is also not a proof of citizenship, but still its only given to Indian citizens, no..?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby pankajs » 07 Nov 2017 14:56

Not fake Adhaar card but fake number. That's just the easiest fraud to pull off.

E.g. I don't have Aadhaar but GOI is forcing me to update my bank account with Adhaar. What I do is just make up a number in my mind and update the bank account. Simple!

The banks facilitate the process by not verifying with the Adhaar database. This is what seems to have happened.

Heck, the bank employee, knowing that the Adhaar update is not verified might themselves suggest such a workaround to get around the mandate when there is money to be siphoned off the GOI schemes.

Let's take this further. The bank employees might themselves create fake farmer account, seed it with fake Adhaar number and pocket the GOI scheme money.

The thing that seems to be missing is verification at the banks end that has allowed this fraud to be perpetuated. Seems to have been caught as soon as the verification routine was run.

Lesson learnt: GOI needs to put the onus of verification with the data collection agency, in this case the banks. Same with the Mobile companies. Put a cost to such agencies passing on fake Adhaar numbers.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby pankajs » 07 Nov 2017 15:18

Wrt banks, I am thinking if the current process passed court scrutiny and once all accounts are seeded with Adhaar numbers the next step would be pysical verification of the individual with the number to weed out fake identities inside the system, multiple identities and borrowed identities. This would be a much more relaxed exercise spread over perhaps 1 year.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Gus » 07 Nov 2017 15:32

pankajs - I am not sure that there is no verification done while linking. Mine went through fine, but my wife's had a problem because name not matching on both ends (initials changed from her dad to mine). So definitely some lookup is being done.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby pankajs » 07 Nov 2017 15:38

There are cases of a random 12-digit Aadhaar number like ‘100000000000’ or ‘111111111111’ or ‘123123123123’ provided for multiple individuals.

Banks did not realise that UIDAI does not allot Aadhaar numbers starting with 0 or 1. It seems wilful forgery by banks. If the data was not cross-checked with UIDAI, the state government may have credited the loan waiver amount to banks while actual beneficiary farmers would have struggled to get the benefit,” an official said.
Lack of verification and forgery by banks suggested by the report itself.

OTOH IIRC, it talks of 19 of 25 numbers being fake i.e. about 6 lakh being good. Perhaps some banks/branches are doing the check.
Last edited by pankajs on 07 Nov 2017 15:48, edited 2 times in total.

Gus
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Gus » 07 Nov 2017 15:43

JayS wrote:About Aadhar cards given to non-Indians, I hope you would agree they need to be cancelled. No one is asking it to be used as "Citizenship Proof" or deporting BDeshis based on AADHAR verification. Why is the confusion then..? AADHAR should not be generated only based on unique biometric data. Then you can give it to anyone on the planet. You need to know that the unique data belongs to some Indian. It is meant for Indian citizen, thus verification beyond mere uniqueness on biometric data is needed. This was grossly lacking and ...


currently, Aadhaar is given to residents of India, irrespective of citizenship. My kids are non-citizens, but currently going to school in India and have aadhaar.

I am not sure if its even recorded in aadhaar db about citizenship. I doubt if they will ever do the upgrading of aadhaar db and process to verify citizenship..it will be too much of an exercise to take on in near future. Maybe after 10 years or so, it may become viable and necessary.

Think of it this way - SSN is also given to non US citizens and is used to account for taxes and track person across systems in US and linked to everything via credit reports and all sorts of things. Aadhaar will become similar to that.

AADHAR was distributed to all and sundry without due verification process on identity and address proofs. Thus the need for weeding


But when the other proofs can be faked, how can you verify those without having to invest heavily in training people to chase around those? isn't that the beauty of Aadhaar? It is biometric and unique. Only one per person and only a real person. Whether that person is an illegal is a different issue to be tackled differently. By making Aadhaar to account for citizenship, you are only setting up aadhaar to fail. It is better this way actually for now.

As such Passport is also not a proof of citizenship, but still its only given to Indian citizens, no..?


I think Indian passport means Indian citizen. Not sure if we have concepts of Indian national (different than citizen, but allowed to have passport).

JayS
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JayS » 07 Nov 2017 16:08

^^ OK I checked AADHAR Act. AADHAR is for "Residents of India". Residents mean those who have resided in India for sum total of 182 days in past 12 months before the date of Application. Anyone Indian who does not fit in this definition becomes NRI. So technically any legal immigrant can also get AADHAR card. Its not like Passport which is only given for Indian Citizens, but as per one SC judgment, Passport cannot be proof of citizenship (don't remember the exact context of the judgment now though). So I was wrong on that front.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JTull » 07 Nov 2017 18:56

Jays, NRIs (Indian) or OCIs (foreign passport) can get Aadhar, but at the moment it is not required.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby prasannasimha » 07 Nov 2017 19:00

Aadhaar is a proof of identity and not citizenship. Non Indian can obtain Aadhaae


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