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Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
arshyam
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby arshyam » 27 Apr 2017 07:04

atamjeetsingh wrote:
Prasad wrote:Would making filing IT returns mandatory be an interim step to guage reactions?


I would go with this idea mandatory IT return for everyone and you will receive benefits from state only if you file IT return. May be after 5-10yrs after there is enough data available govt can analyze who can be taxed and how?

I think this is a good way to start. Initially, most returnees won't need to pay taxes (as they'll be under the ₹2.5L std. deduction), but will get into the habit of filing and knowing that there is something call IT. Also eventually, more people will realize the value of taxpayer money (since they are now part of that system) and will start demanding better accountability. Otherwise, with only one tiny section of population caring about these things, no accountability will happen, NaMo kind of leaders notwithstanding.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby tandav » 27 Apr 2017 09:03



Everyone should pay land tax. A lot of agricultural land is lying vacant since there is no economic incentive to make it productive. A land tax will make sure that people will put the land to good use

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Marten » 27 Apr 2017 09:24

Dipanker wrote:Actually a limit of 10 acres or more or something like that exempts up to 97% of the all farmers who are subsistence/small farmers and taxes only the 3% fat cat farmers, so it is not that big of a political risk. But raising the slab to all income 5 lakh and above taxable sounds like a better idea.

Land productivity not size should determine who is eligible. How can you compare two completely disparate crop farmers and determine who earns more without looking at price, yield per acre for that location!

Again, any move to tax farmers will be political suicide. Very distant from ground reality. Drive fifty kms from city centers and then tell me farmers are a disappearing ilk. Nope, if anything they are not. Most are learning to use coops to improve yield. And it should be the procurement agent who pays taxes. We wouldn't agree to GST on food essentials, so how could we consider taking the chap who produces them?

Dipanker, share the data on land holdings based on income per acre and let's see how to identify these fat cats. Most importantly, the earnings of farmers will be less than half of the total procurement price. Middlemen who earn the fat sums hide away their profits under the agribusiness garb. Get them first...

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Marten » 27 Apr 2017 09:28

tandav wrote:


Everyone should pay land tax. A lot of agricultural land is lying vacant since there is no economic incentive to make it productive. A land tax will make sure that people will put the land to good use

And who underwrites the risk of crop failure and the subsequent foreclosure of asset backed loans such as gold loans? We need data to substantiate these assertions. If we start providing comprehensive risk cover to farmers, we could start talking of land use taxes two decades from then. One whole generation must have crop security to be able to afford the taxes proposed.

No offense but it is a super elitist approach when we avoid going after the craftier traders who are BJP's main support block and go after that 3% who are avoiding taxes. They will continue to do so because they can afford to until the procurement agents are taxed.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 27 Apr 2017 09:39

Marten, please restrict the political side of the topic to the political thread . It's worth using this thread to dig into the nature of agricultural incomes and what sort of tax base it presents .

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 27 Apr 2017 11:50

I kind of doubt fat cats would have all the land in their own name. the extended clan will have smaller parcels, and then proxies too. at the village level these strongmen exercise a lot of quiet control and nobody dare squeal on them.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 27 Apr 2017 12:30

World Steel March 2017 data
India's close to overtaking Japan as #2 in world steel output, producing 25.7MT compared to their 26.2MT. March was the first ever month when we produced 9MT of steel, exceeding Japanese output for the month as well. We will soon be producing more steel than all of North America (US+Canada+Mexico) combined.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby hanumadu » 27 Apr 2017 12:31

Why are the loans taken by steel companies still NPAs?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 27 Apr 2017 12:39

It'll take time to catch up on the repayments. Further, capacity utilization is only catching up to installed capacity. Note the above numbers are actual output, but installed capacity is higher. Actual production for 2016 was 96MT, but installed capacity is close to 125MT. See pg 13 of this document . It's a very good picture of how significantly capacity utilization fell during UPA2.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby hanumadu » 27 Apr 2017 12:52

Thanks Suraj. One more link.

http://www.platts.com/news-feature/2017/metals/india-steel/index


India’s overall finished steel output over April-January was only 82.87 million mt, equivalent to 68% of installed steel capacity of 122 million mt/year.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 28 Apr 2017 03:09

Kia invests $1 billion to build cars in India
South Korean automaker Kia Motors on Thursday became the latest company to try and grab a slice of the pie, announcing a $1.1 billion investment in a manufacturing plant in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh.

Construction is due to begin later this year, and the plant is expected to become operational in 2019. Kia says it will produce 300,000 vehicles a year.

"It will enable us to sell cars in the world's fifth largest market," Kia Motors president Han-Woo Park said in a statement.

Maruti-Suzuki earmarks Rs.4500 cr ($700 million) for capex in current fiscal year
The country's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki India (MSI) has earmarked Rs 4,500 crore capital expenditure for the current financial year.

"Capex for this year (2017-18) is Rs 4,500 crore," MSI Chairman RC Bhargava told reporters in New Delhi.

The amount would be spent on various activities including replacement of machinery, R&D and marketing initiatives, he added.

On R&D alone, the company plans to invest in the range of Rs 700-1,000 crore, Bhargava said.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Karthik S » 28 Apr 2017 10:46

India will overtake Germany in 2022 as the world's fourth-largest economy and push Britain out of the top five, based on analysis of growth projections by the International Monetary Fund. But the challenges the South Asian nation must surmount to get there are many.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -economies

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 28 Apr 2017 17:51

Only the fact is interesting, the explanations given are ad hoc:
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articl ... ese-stocks

The correlation between the CSI 300 and the Nifty 50 indexes survived Xi Jinping's ascent to power in 2012 and Narendra Modi's election in 2014. .... The link between equity prices of the world's two most-populous economies is now the weakest since at least the 2008 financial crisis.


See the chart here: 91-day correlation coefficient between CSI 300 and Nifty 50
https://www.bloomberg.com/toaster/v1/ch ... 65da7.html

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby gakakkad » 28 Apr 2017 20:03

A_Gupta wrote:Only the fact is interesting, the explanations given are ad hoc:
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articl ... ese-stocks

The correlation between the CSI 300 and the Nifty 50 indexes survived Xi Jinping's ascent to power in 2012 and Narendra Modi's election in 2014. .... The link between equity prices of the world's two most-populous economies is now the weakest since at least the 2008 financial crisis.


See the chart here: 91-day correlation coefficient between CSI 300 and Nifty 50
https://www.bloomberg.com/toaster/v1/ch ... 65da7.html



why does the correlation matter ? even at the peak the correlation was 0.4 which is a very weak +ve correlation...I think it's quite imaginative to link it to trump causing wedge etc..

Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 28 Apr 2017 20:14

Karthik S wrote:
India will overtake Germany in 2022 as the world's fourth-largest economy and push Britain out of the top five, based on analysis of growth projections by the International Monetary Fund. But the challenges the South Asian nation must surmount to get there are many.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -economies

The wording is misleading. We've pretty much pushed UK out of the top 5 already, give or take the dynamic movement of exchange rates. Germany is #4 and we're consolidating at #5. UK is #6 either way, and we'll just swap spots 4 and 5 with Germany next (and then 3&4 with Japan).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 28 Apr 2017 21:00

does anyone know if we are self sufficient or surplus in automotive steel and aluminium ? we ought to stop selling ores totally and ask whoever wants our ore to build a plant here. POSCO was submerged by the vested combo of UPA2 and naxals. a large steel plant changes the fortunes in a 100km radius due to downstream effects like schools, township, transport, power, contracts ... I have seen it myself in the jindal JSW steel township near hospet......the road running in front of it goes through a series of hills and a couple of towns to join the chitradurga - hospet NH...pretty much armpit level stuff if not the steel township completely changing things. Jamshedpur is another good example.

we stayed few nights at a nice hotel inside the town and hence got to tour the whole place. beautiful parks and temples. nice sports arenas with kids and adults playing under lights. with ITvity winding down as a cash flow +ve option the demand for good jobs in other branches of engineering and Govt central services jobs with guaranteed housing, less chance of layoffs, PENSION, good infra and time bound increments , KV entry for kids at nominal rates is going to SKYROCKET.

from the kids of such central services/PSUs/pvt industrial cos going into ITvity , to their kids aspiring for the same thing as their grandparents life moves in a full circle :D

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Dipanker » 28 Apr 2017 23:19

Tax the rich farmer, don’t club him with the poor, says Arvind Subramanian

DAYS AFTER Finance Minister Arun Jaitley clarified that the Centre has no plans to impose any tax on agriculture income, Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian Friday called for taxing rich farmers and said that while the Constitution does not allow any tax on agriculture income, states are free to take a call.
“The legal situation is…nothing prevents state governments from taxing agriculture income. The constitutional restriction is on central government taxing agriculture income.. There too, one could make a case that this is a choice open to 29 state governments and if there are willing takers, all power to them,” said Subramanian while speaking at the CII’s annual session.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Apr 2017 00:12

gakakkad wrote:why does the correlation matter ? even at the peak the correlation was 0.4 which is a very weak +ve correlation...I think it's quite imaginative to link it to trump causing wedge etc..


For economic stuff, 0.4 is a significant correlation.
The significance is that if there is correlation, it makes a term like "BRIC" or "BRICS" meaningful; and if the correlation is gone, then a term like BRICS is less meaningful. It means that investors think of India and China separately, not as a lumped "emerging market", and so on.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby gakakkad » 30 Apr 2017 06:58

A_Gupta wrote:
gakakkad wrote:why does the correlation matter ? even at the peak the correlation was 0.4 which is a very weak +ve correlation...I think it's quite imaginative to link it to trump causing wedge etc..


For economic stuff, 0.4 is a significant correlation.
The significance is that if there is correlation, it makes a term like "BRIC" or "BRICS" meaningful; and if the correlation is gone, then a term like BRICS is less meaningful. It means that investors think of India and China separately, not as a lumped "emerging market", and so on.


I am genuinely interested how. If R=0.4 than R^2=0.16... A regression model built of this would have a chance of being correct 16% of the times. I might as well consult the local astrologer..How would they come to any conclusion based on that data ?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 30 Apr 2017 09:33

gakakkad wrote:
I am genuinely interested how. If R=0.4 than R^2=0.16... A regression model built of this would have a chance of being correct 16% of the times. I might as well consult the local astrologer..How would they come to any conclusion based on that data ?


e.g.,
https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/s130.pdf
titled: "Dynamic correlations: The implications for portfolio construction"
Basically, the volatility of a diversified portfolio of investments is increased if the components are correlated.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 01 May 2017 09:57

Aim to collect Rs 19-20 lakh crore (~$300 billion) in taxes in 2017-18: Arun Jaitley
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Saturday said that the government expects to collect Rs 19-20 lakh crore in direct and indirect taxes in 2017-18, which could further increase if greater compliance was ensured. The government reported a total tax collection of Rs 17.10 lakh crore during 2016-17, highest in last six years.

“This year we plan to collect Rs 19-20 lakh crore in direct and indirect taxes,” Jaitley said here in his address at the Enforcement Day celebrations. He noted that experts can indicate that this figure could be higher if India was a tax-compliant society.

Nitin Gadkari says Bharatmala all ready to hit ground, sets 20,000 km road building target in 1st phase
An umbrella programme for roads – Bharatmala – will hit the ground soon ending all existing highway projects, including the flagship NHDP, in six months, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari said today. The ambitious highways development project subsuming all road projects in the first phase will see the construction of 20,000 km of highways. “National Highways Development Project (NHDP) and all existing schemes will be finished in the coming six months. We will launch Bharatmala very soon,” Gadkari, the Road Transport and Highways Minister, told PTI in an interview. Detailed project reports (DPRs) are in the process of preparation and the first phase of the Bharatmala project will see construction of 20,000 km of highways, he said.

Bharatmala is a mega plan of the government and the second-largest highways project after the NHDP that saw development of about 50,000 km.
NHDP, being implemented in various phases was initiated by former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and includes Golden Quadrilateral connecting four metropolises besides North-South Corridor connecting Srinagar to Kanyakumari and East-West Corridor joining Porbandar to Silchar.

FPI net inflow at $3.5 billion in April
Foreign investors poured in a whopping USD 3.5 billion in the Indian capital markets in April as Sebi raised investment limit for FPIs in government debt coupled with strong global cues. Most of the funds were invested in the debt markets during the month. “Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) are investing more in debt mainly due to two reasons. Sebi raised FPI investment limit for government debt and benchmark 10-year government bond yield rose to its highest in 7 months,” Advisorymandi.com CEO Kaushalendra Singh Sengar said.

According to the depository data, FPIs infused a net sum of Rs 2,394 crore in equities in April and another Rs 20,364 crore in the debt segment, translating into a combined inflow of Rs 22,758 crore (USD 3.5 billion).

This follows a record net inflow of Rs 56,944 crore (USD 8.7 billion) last month, mainly on expectations that BJP’s victory in the recently held assembly polls would lead to faster reforms.

In February, FPIs had made a net investment of Rs 15,862 crore in equity and debt markets. Prior to that, FPIs had pulled out more than Rs 80,000 crore between October 2016 to January 2017.

With the latest fund mobilisation, total inflow has reached to Rs 91,385 crore (USD 14 billion) so far this year in the capital markets (equity and debt).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 02 May 2017 03:45

Core sector output up 5% signaling economic recovery
Core sector output rose by 5 per cent in March, recovering from the one-year low growth rate of 1 per cent in February.

The rebound was led primarily by robust growth in steel and coal output, supported by a stable rise in natural gas production.

The data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry on Monday showed that the eight core industries — coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement, and electricity — had a cumulative growth rate of 4.5 per cent in FY17. This was higher than the 4 per cent rise in 2015-16.

Contributing 38 per cent to industrial production (index of industrial production), core sector output had dipped in February mainly due to a decline in production in a majority of sectors such as crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, and cement.

In March, however, continuing the growth momentum, steel output rose by 11 per cent, up from the 8.7 per cent rise in February. The contraction in cement output slowed to 6.8 per cent from the 15.8 per cent contraction in February.

Consumer demand is also accelerating again:
Car sales rise 16% in April
After registering a growth of more than 9 per cent in FY17, carmakers have had a roaring start to the new financial year as the industry posted a growth of 16 per cent in April.

A strong double-digit growth in domestic passenger vehicle (cars, vans and utility vehicle) sales by market leader Maruti Suzuki and others including Honda, Tata Motors and Toyota were among the major factors contributing to the growth. Simultaneously, new launches in recent months continued to drive volumes for many companies even while sports utility vehicles remained on a growth path.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby disha » 02 May 2017 10:47

I was listening to Sri Goyal., power minister. I am thinking that the Indian economy is already hit 10% growth rate (inflation adjusted).

This is based on the increase in electricity consumption (8-9% y.o.y and a saving of 3% due to ujala scheme - 11-12%). Note that my metric is for every 1% increase in electricity consumption., it drives 1.25% growth in output., basically 15% GDP growth and hence @10% inflation adjusted.

BTW., UP in one month showed 30% increase in electricity consumption.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 02 May 2017 11:12

disha wrote:BTW., UP in one month showed 30% increase in electricity consumption.

Please post a reference.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Yagnasri » 02 May 2017 11:20

Last January I was in a meeting where a big shot banker was saying that there is no demand for steel. It was a bad condition. Now, are we out of it or not I am not sure. In respect of the steel units Essar is still in problems and so is Bhushan Steels.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 02 May 2017 12:09

Please see a few posts earlier (from a few days ago) about steel production data as well as capacity utilization data.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Prasad » 02 May 2017 15:17

With good indicators on stock exchange wheres the gloom?
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 438237.cms

Good read from ET.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Sicanta » 02 May 2017 16:36

RBI chief Urjit Patel takes a dig at US over H-1B visa; asks where would Apple, Cisco, IBM be without global talent

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 054_1.html

“I don’t think that we have heard the last word on the US policy talk about this as there was an international push back because the world has benefited from an open trading system,” Patel said, after delivering the Third Kotak Family Distinguished Lecture, sponsored by the Raj Center on Indian Economic Policies at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.

The remarks were in response to a question on the rise of protectionist tendencies in major economies.

He said the share prices of the most efficient corporations in the world were because of the global supply chains. He said the calls for protectionism in the US were on account of equity and domestic distribution issues which “textbook economics tell us should be addressed through domestic fiscal policy” such as taxation and income transfers.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby disha » 02 May 2017 22:56

The numbers on UP electricity consumption are even better!

Here is the link from ET: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/in-just-month-of-yogi-adityanaths-reign-perennially-power-starved-up-becomes-zero-shortage-state/articleshow/58376089.cms

Of course #mediapimps do not know how to calculate., so using their numbers - presenting my calculations

According to the National Load Despatch Centre data for power transactions made by the state utility in the March-April period, daily energy consumption increasing from 265 MU (million units) per day to 320 MU in the last one month.


So daily increase in consumption is from 265 MU to 320 MU : 20%., for the month of March-April. Remember., YA became CM of UP on 19th march. This 20% "rise in power consumption" is to be discounted. The true base of power consumption is still unknown., since there is a large unmet demand and IMHO a better indicator here is how much is supply growth!

Here (supply growth) it gets even better:

This is borne out by the fact that the maximum demand met by the state utility during this period increased from 11,900 MW (mega watt) in early March to nearly 16,000 MW at present, showing no shortage during this period.


Of course demand was always there and it was unmet., hence the supply to meet maximum demand increased from 11.9 GW to 16 GW - that is a 34% increase in availability which was consumed.

"Earlier the generator could be running for up to 7-8 hours. Nowadays, the runtime has come down to an average of two hours," Raman Thakur, estate supervisor at one of the prime housing so cieties in Ghaziabad's Kaushambi area told TOI.


UP is now running into last mile problem! The rickety local distribution grid is what is causing issues.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Gus » 03 May 2017 04:16

IT filing increases

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 484905.cms

The number of people who filed tax returns surged by 95 lakh

As many as 5.28 crore returns were e-filed in FY16, a rise of 22% over the previous year

18 lakh persons who had made bank deposits in old Rs 1,000 and 500 notes after the November 8 demonetisation announcement that didn’t match income profiles.

Operation Clean Money, in the wake of demonetisation, made details of such individuals available online. This was followed by SMSes and emails seeking explanations. “A substantial chunk of these returns have been filed after the department’s communication,” said another official aware of the development.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Prem » 04 May 2017 22:42

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... ment-rules
Strong Rupee May Help Ease India Outbound Investment Rules

A surging rupee, rising currency reserves and a comfortable current-account gap could see India’s central bank consider relaxing rules on outward investments, paving the way for domestic companies to step up their shopping abroad, especially in Latin America and Africa.An uptick in overseas acquisitions would help keep a lid on the rupee, which is among the top performers this year. While the strengthening currency is helping the central bank keep inflation in check, additional gains are threatening to snuff out a nascent recovery in exports.Analysts like Santosh Pai, a New Delhi-based legal expert on foreign exchange rules, say any easing will be a gradual process, especially at a time when China, with which India wants to compete in the global arena, is putting restrictions on capital outflows as it tries to check declines in its own currency reserves. The Reserve Bank of India has relaxed norms for foreign investment by Indian companies in the past few years. It raised the cap that an Indian entity can buy in an overseas firm to 400 percent of the local company’s net worth, from 100 percent.
According to India Brand Equity Foundation, a trust run by India’s Department of Commerce, Indian firms invest in foreign countries mainly through mergers and acquisitions. Earlier, most of the investments were directed to resource rich countries such as Australia, United Arab Emirates and Sudan, but lately they’ve been channeled into countries providing higher tax benefits such as Mauritius, Singapore and British Virgin Islands."A clear policy that is in the national interest must be formulated," said Pai, a partner in Link Legal India Law Services. "National interests and commercial opportunities must be aligned to generate the highest rate of return," he said, adding that China’s recent experience offered a lesson.China has clamped down on outward investments, but not before local companies snapped up significant assets around the world in the past few years."China’s forex reserves are several times larger than India’s and so are its export earnings -- so there is a lesson here for India," said Pai.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby kmkraoind » 05 May 2017 21:15

On economic front, Govt is taking many good steps. The day they brought ordinance on NPA mess, they took this decision too.
Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Kakkaji » 06 May 2017 09:21

Interview with Principal Economic Advisor about the ordinance on NPAs:

Interview with Principal Economic Advisor: ‘Ordinance to rein in free riders, non-compliance’

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby kiranA » 06 May 2017 20:58

Prasad wrote:With good indicators on stock exchange wheres the gloom?
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 438237.cms

Good read from ET.


The gloom is due to informal sector hit badly by demon. The formal sector in india with the exception of export oriented IT and few large MNC is still just crony capitalism and represents bureacrat-businessman collusion. So growth in formal sector though maybe good is not celebrated that much.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby prahaar » 06 May 2017 23:03

KiranA, is it your suggestion that formal sector only makes business from organized businesses? Something is amiss in your hypothesis. When formal economy grows, it is mere speculation to claim "real economy" is contracting.

Gus
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Gus » 07 May 2017 00:27

movement on NPA issue

http://www.financialexpress.com/opinion ... as/656340/
Resolving the NPA problem is analogous to a truck loaded with explosives, being driven by a group of bankers where there is no consensus on how the toxic material can be offloaded as there is a fear of the same blowing up on their faces. Each navigator has her/his own view and the suggestions made are not mutually acceptable. The result is that the quantum of these explosives has multiplied over time and the constant suggestions/options provided by the policeman from outside have not quite been followed as the group still cannot agree on the best route to the dumping ground.

The present ordinance on NPA resolution is quite different from the earlier endeavours as, finally, there is an entity which has been empowered to take such a decision, which makes it easier for the navigators of the truck to do as they are told. As it is a top-down approach, where there are legal structures, the navigators have no choice. Also, the final authority, i.e., the policeman has the final word, and his rules have to be obeyed. This, in essence, is the major takeaway from the new ordinance on NPA resolution that was met with considerable cheer, as prima facie there are no holes in the fabric.

The onus is now on RBI to take this decision, and the banks would really have nothing to do, but refer the NPA to the NCLT and the due process of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code would be followed. The decision is pragmatic as RBI is both independent as well as the regulator of the banks and has a rightful place in this drama. In fact, it has the legitimate right to be the director of the script. Besides, at the end of the day, the NPA concern falls in the domain of RBI as it has a destabilising effect on the banking system.

kiranA
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby kiranA » 07 May 2017 03:29

prahaar wrote:KiranA, is it your suggestion that formal sector only makes business from organized businesses? Something is amiss in your hypothesis. When formal economy grows, it is mere speculation to claim "real economy" is contracting.


I didnt say real economy is contracting . I explained why the sentiment is so poor in the country as stated in the article. Informal economy made of millions of small time to middle real estate developers, cement dealers, retail/wholesale merchants in cash based hinterland are hurting due to demon. Formal economy is ofcourse real economy and I do believe its growing but its not an indicator of overall economy.

Dipanker
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Dipanker » 07 May 2017 03:36

Formal economy too took a hit of 0.5% in the first year of demon if one goes by govt. numbers, and 0.9% if by IMF estimate.

gakakkad
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby gakakkad » 07 May 2017 10:39

How is the car sales growing in double digits ? There might be some artefacts in the micro figure.. the iip is outdated mode as has been discussed here... How the growth "feels" is very subjective ..

prahaar
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby prahaar » 07 May 2017 11:27

gakakkad wrote:How is the car sales growing in double digits ? There might be some artefacts in the micro figure.. the iip is outdated mode as has been discussed here... How the growth "feels" is very subjective ..


In Gujarat, there is a joke, which has been going on since last few decades, "Bajaar maan mandi chale chhe" :rotfl: . In a candid moment, one described, loss of profit as mandi.


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