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Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby geeth » 09 May 2017 10:50

Gus wrote:since when did evading taxes became a birthright?

a shopowner's/businessman's argument of "govt not delivering services blah blah, I have to grease palms blah blah, therefore I have to evade taxes" cannot be an excuse.

after all, the salaried class also suffers the same govt and still pays TDS. So please stuff it about tax evasion. This is getting tiring.


Salaried class also avoid tax by way of under reporting of pay and perks. Govt employees don't get a chance, so some of them crib. The unfortunate part is, many don't want to pay tax but enjoy the facilities. Dont try to make virtue out of necessity.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2017 10:56

geeth wrote:The list is long. These are some of the examples.

No no... I *knew* you would get down this tangent, so let me remind you, we are talking of informal businesses that *despite* reporting requirements, do not do so. What you are quoting are formal business rules. Any small business that is registered, and maintains records of its activity to prove that it's within the turnover or employment ceilings for various additional reporting or levy requirement, is already part of the formal sector, because GoI knows about them.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby geeth » 09 May 2017 11:14

Suraj wrote:
geeth wrote:The list is long. These are some of the examples.

No no... I *knew* you would get down this tangent, so let me remind you, we are talking of informal businesses that *despite* reporting requirements, do not do so. What you are quoting are formal business rules. Any small business that is registered, and maintains records of its activity to prove that it's within the turnover or employment ceilings for various additional reporting or levy requirement, is already part of the formal sector, because GoI knows about them.


No..no. I also *knew* you would go on this tangent. Govt does not know anything, unless there is voluntary disclosure or the Govt inspect. If either of them doesnt happen, then is is not known. But not known doesnt mean it is illegal. So you cannot say everybody who is doing business and not filing returns is avoiding tax, because filing returns is not mandatory(eg., income tax, sales tax, service tax etc). That is what you said before.

It is a different matter that it is safe to assume there are more fraudsters than honest people.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2017 11:37

And they *are* breaking the law when they don't register and report. It's just that GoI doesn't care about small kiranas breaking the law much, because they visibly don't transact enough business and aren't worth the trouble. It's the same concept as people speeding. Pretty much everyone does, but enforcement only makes examples of a few because there's no cost benefit to it. Just because police doesn't target everyone doesn't magically mean you were not speeding too.

Revenue collection has a cost. The lions share of the revenues - both income and corporate taxes - come from the biggest corporations or highest earning individuals. It costs much less to collect Rs.100 from one person than Rs.1 from 100 people. Therefore, it's true that GoI doesn't often know or care, but don't confuse that with not breaking the law. Companies that don't report, are still breaking the law. How many companies that grow past official reporting threshold requirements diligently do so then ? 10% of them ? 25% ?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JohnTitor » 09 May 2017 11:47

geeth wrote:No..no. I also *knew* you would go on this tangent. Govt does not know anything, unless there is voluntary disclosure or the Govt inspect. If either of them doesnt happen, then is is not known. But not known doesnt mean it is illegal. So you cannot say everybody who is doing business and not filing returns is avoiding tax, because filing returns is not mandatory(eg., income tax, sales tax, service tax etc). That is what you said before.

It is a different matter that it is safe to assume there are more fraudsters than honest people.

The bolded bit.. if you don't report your income, even if you are within exemption limits, you are committing a crime. Income needs to be reported and if you don't need to pay tax that's fine. Deciding not to report because you feel that you are exempt isn't. Besides, the former isn't part of the formal economy.

The red bit.. yes. Yes it does. It is illegal to have an income and not report it. That by definition is tax evasion, even if no tax is accrued

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby geeth » 09 May 2017 11:57

Suraj wrote:And they *are* breaking the law when they don't register and report. It's just that GoI doesn't care about small kiranas breaking the law much, because they visibly don't transact enough business and aren't worth the trouble. It's the same concept as people speeding. Pretty much everyone does, but enforcement only makes examples of a few because there's no cost benefit to it. Just because police doesn't target everyone doesn't magically mean you were not speeding too.

Revenue collection has a cost. The lions share of the revenues - both income and corporate taxes - come from the biggest corporations or highest earning individuals. It costs much less to collect Rs.100 from one person than Rs.1 from 100 people. Therefore, it's true that GoI doesn't often know or care, but don't confuse that with not breaking the law. Companies that don't report, are still breaking the law. How many companies that grow past official reporting threshold requirements diligently do so then ? 10% of them ? 25% ?


No, they are not breaking any law, when dont register and report. Like a person need not file income tax return if he doesn't have taxable income. But once he files a return even if he doesnt have taxable income, he should continue to do so.

Similarly, an establishment need not register under ESI rule if it has less than 10 employees. But if it registers even with less than 10 employees, he cannot withdraw later.

So, you cannot say those who dont file income tax returns are fraudsters. That is what you said in the case of businesses.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2017 11:59

So the gist of your argument is that 'informal economy' is basically composed solely of entities with <10 employees ? :) And that everyone else DOES register and report everything ? Ok :-)

And to ask again - what fraction of such entities diligently report the moment they hire employee #10 ?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2017 12:20

$1.3 Trillion Housing Boom Set to Be India's Next Growth Driver
In a country where slums sit cheek-by-jowl next to palatial luxury -- including what’s been reported as the world’s most expensive private home -- India’s unhoused may soon become a more potent economic growth driver.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s drive to bring homes to the country’s 1.3 billion people, rising incomes and the best affordability in two decades will unleash a $1.3 trillion wave of investment in housing over the next seven years, according to CLSA India Pvt.

The firm expects 60 million new homes to be built between 2018 and 2024, creating about 2 million jobs annually and giving a tailwind of as much as 75 basis points to India’s gross domestic product. The volume of social and affordable housing will rise almost 70 percent to 10.5 million annually by 2024, exceeding the 33 percent increase in the premium market.

“The housing sector is at a tipping point and will be the economy’s next big growth driver,” Mumbai-based analyst Mahesh Nandurkar and his colleagues wrote in a note last week. “The catalyst is the government’s big push for an ambitious housing program.”

Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby geeth » 09 May 2017 12:23

Suraj wrote:So the gist of your argument is that 'informal economy' is basically composed solely of entities with <10 employees ? :) And that everyone else DOES register and report everything ? Ok :-)

And to ask again - what fraction of such entities diligently report the moment they hire employee #10 ?


Now you can see yourself who is going on a tangent. Fullstop for me.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2017 12:27

Yes let's move on. There's really no point in sitting around claiming the informal economy is <10 person companies. That's simply absurd, considering the amount of illicit economic activity unearthed by demonetization. No one's going to believe such claims 'oh no need to report, everyone's honest and doesn't report only because they don't have to' of yours.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby geeth » 09 May 2017 12:33

Pls dont try to put words into my mouth. It is pretty annoying. Either stick to the point or stop responding.

Yeah...let everybody believe your line that every one who indulges in business activity is a fraud.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2017 12:43

The same applies to you, i.e. "every one who indulges in business activity is a fraud."

You support the businessman's right to self report . I'm sorry, but that's utopian nonsense. Given the choice, everyone - businessman or salaried class - will evade taxes. The rate of conversion of someone with <10 people to >=10 people from unreported to reported is negligible. It doesn't happen until they're much bigger and simply cannot hide their size any longer. In fact I'll assert that businessmen are bigger frauds than salaried class.

India loses more in tax revenue than it collects. Lost corporate taxes amount to ~$320 billion, more than the $300 billion in total taxes collected. In fact, despite most people NOT being salaried but self employed, data shows that income taxes as a reported source of income exceeds business income. That single piece of data rubbishes the claim of business income being reported. Source ? here you go - posted in page 62

For a nation of self employed people, it's a nice demonstration of 'honesty' that the much smaller salaried class report more income than the entire collective business-owning class do. And in fact, the individual salaried class report almost as much income as companies themselves collectively do as business income.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JohnTitor » 09 May 2017 12:57

^^ wasn't there a statistic that said something like only 1% (or maybe it was 3%) of working indians pay tax? That statistic alone suggests that there are lots of tax dodgers. Or is the claim that these people don't need to file because they are below the threshold?

I'll try to find the source but it came out during the demonetisation exercise

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2017 13:03

The data above quoted from page 62 shows that the IT base is 29 million people who collectively report Rs.10.79 lakh crore in income. Companies and firms collectively report ~8.5 lakh crore in income. That's it.

The vast majority of Indians are not salaried, and yet the salaried class reports more individual income than the self-employed do ? Where are all the millions of people who run their own businesses in the IT forms ? Only 14 million people reporting incomes of 0-2 lakh. Another 14 million report >2 lakh income, and that together is the total number of people reporting any source of individual income. The remaining 1.2 billion people are sitting idle, and it's a miracle GDP is 2.6 trillion solely from 29 million people. That means our small highly skilled workforce is 4 times more productive per unit as California with 45 million people and $1.3 trillion GDP.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JohnTitor » 09 May 2017 13:04

geeth wrote:Pls dont try to put words into my mouth. It is pretty annoying. Either stick to the point or stop responding.

Yeah...let everybody believe your line that every one who indulges in business activity is a fraud.

What are you using as the definition of 'informal'?

The definition to be used is those work packets that are not covered by a formal contract. One that can cover a dispute in court. Your maid who you pay to clean the house without any contract is informal. The construction worker who is employed on a daily basis for a sum without a legally binding contract is informal.

You run a corner shop employing a "chotu".. the chotu is informal because you haven't issued hima contract with pay and terms and conditions included. But you as the shop owner are not informal because by definition you have to pay various fees and taxes. How can you term that informal?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby gakakkad » 09 May 2017 18:16

Indeed the math does not add up... Salaried class reporting more income than businesses ... but it is businesses who employ the salaried class... how is that even possible ? it's like moon being brighter than the sun...

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby geeth » 09 May 2017 19:52

Every last business owner in the 'informal economy' as you call it, is a tax evader. They also ignore all worker benefit laws. No formal salary and overtime contract. No pension plan contributions. No formal severance. No DA/HRA etc. All of this by choice .


All I said in my first post is that it is a generalised statement and is wrong. I stand by what I said.

John Titor: please read the posts of last two days..you will find answer to your questions.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby geeth » 09 May 2017 20:07

gakakkad wrote:Indeed the math does not add up... Salaried class reporting more income than businesses ... but it is businesses who employ the salaried class... how is that even possible ? it's like moon being brighter than the sun...


Allow me to add it for you:

Take 100 establishments that employ 5000 people. Of that say 10% pay income tax. So 500 people pay income tax. But it is possible that none of these 100 establishments pay income tax or minuscule number pays income tax but the sum total is less than the total income tax paid by its employees. How?

Take the case of Reliance Industries. They employ thousands of employees..but did not pay ANY corporate tax till mid ninetees. Only after Chiddu as Fin Minister introduced Minimum Alternative Tax (MAT), they started paying tax. But they had many employees including motu bhai whe were paying income tax.

Another fact is, most of the establishments dont make any profit, but end up with huge losses in the initial years of establishment. They can carry forward and adjust their losses in the subsequent eight years against profit.

All these concessions are given to businesses because of inherent risks involved. But alas! Some people are still in Nehruvian mould and for them "profit" is a dirty word and businessmen are not even to be touched with a barge pole.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2017 20:18

geeth wrote:
Every last business owner in the 'informal economy' as you call it, is a tax evader. They also ignore all worker benefit laws. No formal salary and overtime contract. No pension plan contributions. No formal severance. No DA/HRA etc. All of this by choice .

All I said in my first post is that it is a generalised statement and is wrong. I stand by what I said.

Since India has so many people working in their own self employed businesses, why are there only 29 million IT assessees ? There's probably more people than that running businesses through various means (co/partnership/etc) in a large state. Even if a business is smaller than a threshold, personal income in the form of business sourced income, has to be reported . Even if you're not making money, you still have to report and show that.

Despite all the claims of honest, individual salaried income declared significant exceeds individual business income declared, even though the salaried class is vastly smaller than the small business class. Heck, salaried income declared is almost as much as corporate income declared. This from the same economy where 90-95% are self employed and not salaried ? How does such an economy show declared salaried income as much higher than declared business personal income ? And salaried income almost as much as total income declared by companies ?

PS: for the claims of loss setoff against future revenues, data posted above already shows that cumulative loss set off is much less than reported revenues.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2017 20:19

geeth wrote:Take 100 establishments that employ 5000 people. Of that say 10% pay income tax. So 500 people pay income tax.

All 5000 have to declare income.
geeth wrote:But they had many employees including motu bhai whe were paying income tax.

Only 29 million people (as of 2013-14 in the data posted above) nationwide report income. Not just salaried income - *any* income at all.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby geeth » 09 May 2017 20:30

It is a different matter that it is safe to assume there are more fraudsters than honest people.


Suraj,

Above is what I said in one of the earlier post. No point in harping on the same point again and again. I am not going to take the bait.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2017 20:34

Well, I don't envy you :) It's hard to make your claims with a straight face when officially reported incomes - and reported loss set offs - disagree with your claims so dramatically.


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2017 21:37

gakakkad wrote:@ Suraj , you were one of the proponents of ICOR. You think the downward trend in Gross fixed capital formation and savings as a % of GDP would continue ? would we say that there has been some delinking of ICOR to growth rate in the last few years?

Sorry I did not see this sooner. I'm not really an ICOR proponent since it's a standard measure. I think the GFCF and savings/GDP figures will improve, and that the fall is a temporary blip on account of the drop in savings and investment during UPA-2 . It takes time and effort to rebuild that momentum. It's not possible within a fiscal year or two, because policy measures themselves don't fix it overnight. It takes a period of sustained growth in investment to do so.
The road to growth is paved with low ICOR

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby VKumar » 09 May 2017 22:55

In a keynote address, at Oracle Open World, in New Delhi, Amitabh Kant, said that physical banking would die out in about 4 years.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2017 23:21

Govt projects wheat output to be highest at over 97 mn tonnes in 2016-17
The government on Tuesday projected wheat output at an all-time high of 97.44 million tonnes (MT) in the 2016-17 crop year ending next month due to good monsoon.

India had harvested 92.29 MT wheat during the 2015-16 crop year (July-June). Wheat, the main rabi crop, is being harvested now. The previous record was 95.85 MT achieved in 2013-14.

In its third estimate released on Tuesday, the agriculture ministry has revised the 2016-17 wheat output marginally upward by 0.8 MT from its earlier estimate as yields got better in the absence of any major weather aberrations.

India to produce record food grains in FY17, says Agriculture ministry
India is likely to produce a record 273.38 million tonnes of food grains in 2016/17, slightly higher than the previous estimate of 271.98 million tonnes, Agriculture ministry said in a statement, as ample monsoon rains boosted crop yields.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby disha » 10 May 2017 10:30



I think Indian economy is already touching double digit growth. The usage of electricity is a key pointer there.



Good monsoon leading to bumper harvest leading to better farm income leading to higher "consumer confidence"., another good monsoon and we will enter into 2 more year of virtuous cycle of growth at double digit.
Last edited by disha on 10 May 2017 18:13, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 10 May 2017 11:11

Do you have data correlating GDP growth against annual electricity consumption for the past decade or so ? It's a useful exercise for anyone who has the time of inclination to dig up and chart the data, if it's not available online. Also applies to other core sector items like coal and steel. I'm afraid I'm a little short on time these days.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby gakakkad » 10 May 2017 21:55

Suraj wrote:Do you have data correlating GDP growth against annual electricity consumption for the past decade or so ? It's a useful exercise for anyone who has the time of inclination to dig up and chart the data, if it's not available online. Also applies to other core sector items like coal and steel. I'm afraid I'm a little short on time these days.


I ll do this and post ..

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby disha » 10 May 2017 23:17

gakakkad wrote:
Suraj wrote:Do you have data correlating GDP growth against annual electricity consumption for the past decade or so ? It's a useful exercise for anyone who has the time of inclination to dig up and chart the data, if it's not available online. Also applies to other core sector items like coal and steel. I'm afraid I'm a little short on time these days.


I ll do this and post ..


Thanks Gakakkad'ji. If you can., can you provide annual figures for the past 10 years on total electricity produced, total oil & gas consumed and

I have been developing a theory for a while., basically to look at some key parameters and predicting the direction and rate of economic growth. And of course a layman can use it as well as a TFTA economist from Harbard.

Let me state it here., my premise is that all economic growth is correlated to energy. And the key parameters are the production and consumption efficiency of energy (which is related to GDP). In terms of electricity., for example if I am producing 10 MW of power and consuming all of it to produce 1 unit of GDP., then my efficiency is 0.1., this can be correlated to another nation that is producing 10 MW of power and producing 2 unit of GDP., efficiency is 0.2 and is 2x efficient then the other nation with efficiency 0.1.

Coming to energy inputs., I am thinking of restricting to only two - total electricity power produced and total oil & gas consumed (imported and produced locally). Most of the coal is mined for producing electricity or for coking iron. The steel output by itself is an indicator that can be used to validate the heading of the economy derived from the energy produce/consume calculations.

This simplifies the calculations on knowing where the economy is headed and the rate of economic growth once a baseline is established. Note that efficiency is always an "after number" - more on that later.

*I am not an economist, neither a mathematician or a statistician. Just a layman who can put 2+2 together.
**I have a deep distrust of financial advisors, economists - particularly who make their living by writing for eCONo journals.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby ManSingh » 10 May 2017 23:57

Suraj wrote:The data above quoted from page 62 shows that the IT base is 29 million people who collectively report Rs.10.79 lakh crore in income. Companies and firms collectively report ~8.5 lakh crore in income. That's it.

The vast majority of Indians are not salaried, and yet the salaried class reports more individual income than the self-employed do ? Where are all the millions of people who run their own businesses in the IT forms ? Only 14 million people reporting incomes of 0-2 lakh. Another 14 million report >2 lakh income, and that together is the total number of people reporting any source of individual income. The remaining 1.2 billion people are sitting idle, and it's a miracle GDP is 2.6 trillion solely from 29 million people. That means our small highly skilled workforce is 4 times more productive per unit as California with 45 million people and $1.3 trillion GDP.


This post is awesome( if true - still very hard to believe). I always wondered who arr the one's who drive luxury suv's despite being so young.
One newbie question: It is always mentioned that the biggest employer is agriculture in India where there is no such requirement as PAN, IT returns etc. Will the anomaly 8.5 lakh crore vs 10.79 lakh crore still be so unjustifiable?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 11 May 2017 00:03

gakakkad wrote:
Suraj wrote:Do you have data correlating GDP growth against annual electricity consumption for the past decade or so ? It's a useful exercise for anyone who has the time of inclination to dig up and chart the data, if it's not available online. Also applies to other core sector items like coal and steel. I'm afraid I'm a little short on time these days.

I ll do this and post ..

Thanks in advance!

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 11 May 2017 00:18

ManSingh wrote:This post is awesome( if true - still very hard to believe). I always wondered who arr the one's who drive luxury suv's despite being so young.
One newbie question: It is always mentioned that the biggest employer is agriculture in India where there is no such requirement as PAN, IT returns etc. Will the anomaly 8.5 lakh crore vs 10.79 lakh crore still be so unjustifiable?

Generally, income taxes are progressive, i.e. higher income quintiles pay more proportionally of the total IT paid. For example, here's US data:
Top quintile pays 94% of all taxes
Another graph
On the other hand our tax brackets pay in the following ratios:
India share of IT from brackets
In our case the middle quintiles pays most of the IT. See the last share% column. 50% of IT is paid by the 10lakh-1crore group, which most of the typical upper/middle class falls into I think. 75% of IT is paid by those earning 1crore or less. This is essentially the diametric opposite of what a progressive taxation system should result in. It is also the root of the middle class salaried group's angst, because they're clearly the ones largely being sucked dry for everyone. Beyond the 1cr mark pretty much no one is salaried, and income is business, investment and other sources. They also have significant means to shelter income, both legal and illegal ones. Just the number of assesses in the >1cr mark is way fewer than what people would anecdotally believe is reality based on consumption figures for luxury goods.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JohnTitor » 11 May 2017 00:19

geeth wrote:Another fact is, most of the establishments dont make any profit, but end up with huge losses in the initial years of establishment. They can carry forward and adjust their losses in the subsequent eight years against profit.

All these concessions are given to businesses because of inherent risks involved. But alas! Some people are still in Nehruvian mould and for them "profit" is a dirty word and businessmen are not even to be touched with a barge pole.


Sure - this it the case world over. I think the statistic is that around 80% of startups die out within 12 months. So no surprise there. Depending on various factors, incubation periods for these businesses can be anywhere between 1-5 years. Heck I worked at a startup previously and even 5 years into its life it was still losing money hand over fist - it wasn't that the business was bad or anything, just takes a while for it to stabilise, but you need staying power for that.

Anyway in india, it is quite common for small businesses to keep 2 books - one that is shown to the taxman, and the other the real one. I know this very well because I have interacted with 100s of people running businesses in india who have this practice. You can see that some of these businesses make losses for years on end, yet the owner is driving in a new beemer every year. This is how they hide their losses.

The fact that there are concessions isn't a bad thing, nor is it that businesses make use of them. In fact its the contrary, without it, it would be hard to start and run an equitable business. Secondly, profit isn't a bad thing. No one here is claiming so. In fact, the more the profit, the better. That's what everyone wants, that's what GDP growth is all about!

What is at issue is the fact that tax isn't being paid at par of the revenue generation. That is what needs to be addressed and there can be no hiding from it. The "informal economy" as it is called needs to be shut down and converted into the "formal economy". Everyone makes money, everyone pays their dues. The government can then start reducing taxes because the tax base has suddenly become much larger.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JohnTitor » 11 May 2017 00:31

disha wrote:Thanks Gakakkad'ji. If you can., can you provide annual figures for the past 10 years on total electricity produced, total oil & gas consumed and

I have been developing a theory for a while., basically to look at some key parameters and predicting the direction and rate of economic growth. And of course a layman can use it as well as a TFTA economist from Harbard.

Let me state it here., my premise is that all economic growth is correlated to energy. And the key parameters are the production and consumption efficiency of energy (which is related to GDP). In terms of electricity., for example if I am producing 10 MW of power and consuming all of it to produce 1 unit of GDP., then my efficiency is 0.1., this can be correlated to another nation that is producing 10 MW of power and producing 2 unit of GDP., efficiency is 0.2 and is 2x efficient then the other nation with efficiency 0.1.

Coming to energy inputs., I am thinking of restricting to only two - total electricity power produced and total oil & gas consumed (imported and produced locally). Most of the coal is mined for producing electricity or for coking iron. The steel output by itself is an indicator that can be used to validate the heading of the economy derived from the energy produce/consume calculations.

What you are stating is quite similar to the Kardashev Scale i.e. more energy = more advanced civilisation.

I had done some similar work during a previous stint several years ago at a bank. You should find that energy usage correlates quite well with GDP growth (assuming both figures are fairly accurate). Further, what you will find is that at various price points for energy, GDP will vary - so cheaper electricity = higher demand = more growth and so forth. You can combine the two energy sources you quoted by converting it to joules/hour or something similar. About 10% is wastage.. though in India, that figure is much higher (I saw somewhere on this website the T&D losses by each state, KA for instance is about 15%, but there are some states with T&D as high as 50-60%, can't remember where on that website I found it).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Prem » 11 May 2017 01:29

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/indias-c ... 06699.html
India's cotton area seen rising 15 percent to 3-year high as prices rally
MUMBAI (Reuters) - Cotton planting in India, the world's biggest producer of the fibre, is likely to rise by 15 percent in the 2017/18 marketing season to a three-year high as farmers switch away from other crops, likely boosting cotton production and exports.Higher output in India could kill a rally that pushed global cotton prices to their highest in three years this month."This year farmers received higher prices, so they are going to raise the area under cotton. We are expecting around a 15 percent increase," said Mekala Chockalingam, chairman of the state-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), the biggest cotton buyer in the country.A 15 percent rise in crop area would lift India's cotton planting to around 12.08 million hectares (29.9 million acres) in the marketing year starting on Oct. 1, highest since the 2014/15 year.That compares to 10.5 million hectares in the current marketing year, the lowest in seven years."We have lost area in the last few years. We will recover that lost area as long as the monsoon is normal," said Nayan Mirani, president of Cotton Association of India.Most Indian farmers start planting cotton - a crop that requires lots of moisture - with the onset of monsoon rains in June, although some with irrigated fields start as early as May.India looks likely to receive above average monsoon rainfall as concern over the El Nino weather condition has eased, the chief of India's weather office said on Tuesday.India, which competes with Brazil, the United States and African countries in the world market, is estimated to have produced 35.1 million bales in 2016/17, up 3.8 percent from the previous year, according to the state-run Cotton Advisory Board.Pakistan, Bangladesh, China and Vietnam are key buyers of Indian cotton.However, in the last few months Indian textile mills have been aggressively importing cotton due to an appreciation in the rupee. The country is likely to import a record 3 million bales in the current year.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby gakakkad » 11 May 2017 01:33

The results are interesting....There is no correlation between GDP growth rate and power growth rate... I ran multiple regression between gdp growth rate and TIC growth rate and did not find any significant relation between GDP growth and Total installed capacity growth rate as can be seen in the graph.. R value is 0.25 .

Image

source for data is

Page 16 MOSPI

http://mospiold.nic.in/Mospi_New/upload ... s_2016.pdf

GDP data is from
https://community.data.gov.in/gdp-growt ... o-2013-14/

I did not include data from 2015-2017 because of revised base year...I wonder if there is a way to convert all growth rates as per new base year...

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JohnTitor » 11 May 2017 02:16

gakakkad wrote:The results are interesting....There is no correlation between GDP growth rate and power growth rate... I ran multiple regression between gdp growth rate and TIC growth rate and did not find any significant relation between GDP growth and Total installed capacity growth rate as can be seen in the graph.. R value is 0.25 .

[img]http://i.imgur.com/yJSTrMe.png[img]

source for data is

Page 16 MOSPI

http://mospiold.nic.in/Mospi_New/upload ... s_2016.pdf

GDP data is from
https://community.data.gov.in/gdp-growt ... o-2013-14/

I did not include data from 2015-2017 because of revised base year...I wonder if there is a way to convert all growth rates as per new base year...

^^ visually it looks like you need to lag GDP by 18 months or so. That makes sense, since new wattage kicks off new investment which takes 12-24 months to come online.

But one of the issues you'll find with the indian figures is that the "informal economy" is so much bigger than the real economy that most of that growth isn't captured in the GDP figures. These people pay no tax so it cannot be captured accurately on growth rates.

PS - is that SPSS or minitab?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 11 May 2017 04:36

Modi Diktat Paying Off: India Infrastructure Projects on a Roll
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to push delayed infrastructure projects are paying off.

About a quarter of 1,201 projects valued at 16.9 trillion rupees ($262 billion) were delayed as of January, down from 43 percent two years back, according to a government report seen by Bloomberg News.

Cost overruns have also come down to 11 percent from 20 percent from March 2015. Of the total projects -- each worth at least 1.5 billion rupees -- 329 are running behind schedule, 293 have cost overruns, while 95 have both time and cost overrun compared to their original implementation schedules.

Image
Infrastructure spending as % of GDP:
Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 11 May 2017 16:45

Ndtv

http://m.ndtv.com/india-news/chief-econ ... topstories

New Delhi: Chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian today attacked global rating agencies, saying they have not upgraded India "despite clear improvements in our economic fundamentals" which include inflation, growth, and current account performance. Despite its rapid growth, India still has a BBB rating. China's rating has been upgraded to AA, despite its slowing growth and rising debts.

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"In other words, the ratings agencies have been inconsistent in their treatment of China and India," he said, and in a barbed wordplay, took a dig at ratings agency Standard & Poor's. "Given this record, what we call Poor Standards, my question is - why do we take these rating analysts seriously at all?" he said.

Pointing out instances where global ratings agencies have fallen short of expectations, he said they consistently fail to provide advance warnings of financial crisis and downgrade a country after the fact. In the US, they had given AAA ratings to mortgage-ridden securities, which later dragged down the economy and created a crisis.

India has been consistently pushing for better ratings, which will act as an endorsement to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's economic policies and help bring in much-needed investment. Since coming to power in 2014, the NDA government has aggressively chased investment - taking measures to streamline processes and bring down inflation.

But the three key ratings agencies --- Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch - have not upgraded India, contending that the government needs to do more. Among the issues the rating agencies have red-flagged are India's high debt-GDP ratio and bad assets of its banks


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