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Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Prem » 11 May 2017 01:29

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/indias-c ... 06699.html
India's cotton area seen rising 15 percent to 3-year high as prices rally
MUMBAI (Reuters) - Cotton planting in India, the world's biggest producer of the fibre, is likely to rise by 15 percent in the 2017/18 marketing season to a three-year high as farmers switch away from other crops, likely boosting cotton production and exports.Higher output in India could kill a rally that pushed global cotton prices to their highest in three years this month."This year farmers received higher prices, so they are going to raise the area under cotton. We are expecting around a 15 percent increase," said Mekala Chockalingam, chairman of the state-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), the biggest cotton buyer in the country.A 15 percent rise in crop area would lift India's cotton planting to around 12.08 million hectares (29.9 million acres) in the marketing year starting on Oct. 1, highest since the 2014/15 year.That compares to 10.5 million hectares in the current marketing year, the lowest in seven years."We have lost area in the last few years. We will recover that lost area as long as the monsoon is normal," said Nayan Mirani, president of Cotton Association of India.Most Indian farmers start planting cotton - a crop that requires lots of moisture - with the onset of monsoon rains in June, although some with irrigated fields start as early as May.India looks likely to receive above average monsoon rainfall as concern over the El Nino weather condition has eased, the chief of India's weather office said on Tuesday.India, which competes with Brazil, the United States and African countries in the world market, is estimated to have produced 35.1 million bales in 2016/17, up 3.8 percent from the previous year, according to the state-run Cotton Advisory Board.Pakistan, Bangladesh, China and Vietnam are key buyers of Indian cotton.However, in the last few months Indian textile mills have been aggressively importing cotton due to an appreciation in the rupee. The country is likely to import a record 3 million bales in the current year.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby gakakkad » 11 May 2017 01:33

The results are interesting....There is no correlation between GDP growth rate and power growth rate... I ran multiple regression between gdp growth rate and TIC growth rate and did not find any significant relation between GDP growth and Total installed capacity growth rate as can be seen in the graph.. R value is 0.25 .

Image

source for data is

Page 16 MOSPI

http://mospiold.nic.in/Mospi_New/upload ... s_2016.pdf

GDP data is from
https://community.data.gov.in/gdp-growt ... o-2013-14/

I did not include data from 2015-2017 because of revised base year...I wonder if there is a way to convert all growth rates as per new base year...

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JohnTitor » 11 May 2017 02:16

gakakkad wrote:The results are interesting....There is no correlation between GDP growth rate and power growth rate... I ran multiple regression between gdp growth rate and TIC growth rate and did not find any significant relation between GDP growth and Total installed capacity growth rate as can be seen in the graph.. R value is 0.25 .

[img]http://i.imgur.com/yJSTrMe.png[img]

source for data is

Page 16 MOSPI

http://mospiold.nic.in/Mospi_New/upload ... s_2016.pdf

GDP data is from
https://community.data.gov.in/gdp-growt ... o-2013-14/

I did not include data from 2015-2017 because of revised base year...I wonder if there is a way to convert all growth rates as per new base year...

^^ visually it looks like you need to lag GDP by 18 months or so. That makes sense, since new wattage kicks off new investment which takes 12-24 months to come online.

But one of the issues you'll find with the indian figures is that the "informal economy" is so much bigger than the real economy that most of that growth isn't captured in the GDP figures. These people pay no tax so it cannot be captured accurately on growth rates.

PS - is that SPSS or minitab?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 11 May 2017 04:36

Modi Diktat Paying Off: India Infrastructure Projects on a Roll
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to push delayed infrastructure projects are paying off.

About a quarter of 1,201 projects valued at 16.9 trillion rupees ($262 billion) were delayed as of January, down from 43 percent two years back, according to a government report seen by Bloomberg News.

Cost overruns have also come down to 11 percent from 20 percent from March 2015. Of the total projects -- each worth at least 1.5 billion rupees -- 329 are running behind schedule, 293 have cost overruns, while 95 have both time and cost overrun compared to their original implementation schedules.

Image
Infrastructure spending as % of GDP:
Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 11 May 2017 16:45

Ndtv

http://m.ndtv.com/india-news/chief-econ ... topstories

New Delhi: Chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian today attacked global rating agencies, saying they have not upgraded India "despite clear improvements in our economic fundamentals" which include inflation, growth, and current account performance. Despite its rapid growth, India still has a BBB rating. China's rating has been upgraded to AA, despite its slowing growth and rising debts.

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"In other words, the ratings agencies have been inconsistent in their treatment of China and India," he said, and in a barbed wordplay, took a dig at ratings agency Standard & Poor's. "Given this record, what we call Poor Standards, my question is - why do we take these rating analysts seriously at all?" he said.

Pointing out instances where global ratings agencies have fallen short of expectations, he said they consistently fail to provide advance warnings of financial crisis and downgrade a country after the fact. In the US, they had given AAA ratings to mortgage-ridden securities, which later dragged down the economy and created a crisis.

India has been consistently pushing for better ratings, which will act as an endorsement to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's economic policies and help bring in much-needed investment. Since coming to power in 2014, the NDA government has aggressively chased investment - taking measures to streamline processes and bring down inflation.

But the three key ratings agencies --- Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch - have not upgraded India, contending that the government needs to do more. Among the issues the rating agencies have red-flagged are India's high debt-GDP ratio and bad assets of its banks

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Gus » 11 May 2017 16:53

we've always been shafted by these rating agencies. at some point, we need our own - like the chinese do, only more transparent and credible.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Karthik S » 11 May 2017 16:59

With 6% of GDP, Chinese are still spending $700B on infrastructure. What more is left for them to build I wonder.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 11 May 2017 19:43

Gus wrote:we've always been shafted by these rating agencies. at some point, we need our own - like the chinese do, only more transparent and credible.

We have our own. It's called CRISIL. During UPA-1 S&P became a major shareholder of it. Not sure why GoI permitted that at the time. Ideally it should be independent and a counterweight to those guys.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby prahaar » 11 May 2017 19:47

Until now I was under the impression that CRISIL is analogous to SEBI. Learn something new every day. Thanks. In past there was some rule regarding the use of "of India" in the name. It gives an impression of being a government recognized body.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby morem » 11 May 2017 20:43

Crisil was bought by S&p I think

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Karthik S » 11 May 2017 20:46

S&P is a majority stakeholder.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Vamsee » 12 May 2017 00:24

Crisil is a subsidiary of S&P
ICRA is a subsidiary of Moodys

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby VKumar » 12 May 2017 00:32

CRISIL is a scam. Google for this. CRISIL credit rating complaints

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 12 May 2017 01:18

VKumar wrote:CRISIL is a scam. Google for this. CRISIL credit rating complaints

All credit rating agencies are arguably scams in some way, particularly the western model where the operate from the fees gained from those whom they rate. The question is one of whether it's ours or controlled by someone else.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby VenkataS » 12 May 2017 02:57

Mods : I am hoping that these inline images are not a violation and that you will allow them to remain as they are very illustrative.

I collected some information and produced this table and chart (with help from Chacha and based on World Bank data).

It shows the importance of sustained economic growth over an extended period of time. India's average annual growth rate over this 55 year period is 5.38% which helped us to grow our per capita GDP by 17.88 times over this period whereas South Korea's average annual growth rate over this period was 9.83% which helped it to grow it's per capita GDP by 173.95 times. China and Hong Kong are not far behind Korea's growth as well over this period.
We need sustained 10% (plus) growth rates over an extended period of time to emulate their successes.

I tweeted about this to Modi, Jaitley, and NCBN in the hopes of providing additional inspiration to them in their work.

Image

Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Gus » 12 May 2017 03:16

Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vish_mulay » 12 May 2017 05:42

Hope this is a right thread for my query. anyone here has any experience in applying for or helping someone get the Mudra loans from govt? My mothers loyal aid for last 25 years (we call her mausi, literally she is like mother to us) is retiring due to ill health and its very emotional time for all of us. She wants to spend her last days at our native village with her brother and nephew. This particular nephew is a very nice and driven chap who wants to expand his farm tools repair shop and needs capital (currently he is borrowing from the local money lender with 24% interest short term). I can give him capital but was wondering whether he is eligible for the Mudra scheme and hence this query. I am encouraging him to write business details and future plans but being just ITI graduate and in market for less than 3 years, I am not sure he is capable of doing it. Any pointers how, where and paper process required for getting Mudra loan will be highly appreciated. Thanks in advance.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby gakakkad » 12 May 2017 07:36

VenkataS wrote:Image



This chart is perhaps the most direct indictment of the Nehru-Gandhi family and the best possible proof of why fabian socialism fails... India barely grew as fast as US in the last 60 years...If we don't take the post-91 figures into account , India was growing even slower than US pre-91...

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 12 May 2017 08:37

Have you looked at the Mudra website ? IIRC the forms are available at all PSU banks .

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby KL Dubey » 12 May 2017 10:37

VKumar wrote:CRISIL is a scam. Google for this. CRISIL credit rating complaints


Agree. Totally useless agency.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Austin » 12 May 2017 11:29

Most of these figures like GDP etc are phoney number and just flawed more so if you even add debt of these nations. Many of these nations the rich one have more debt on them then their entire GDP put together. These are indebted nations living on borrowed money.

I would say India in 60-70's was a much happier and richer country then it is for some time , These things can be gauged only when you live in the country and meet and interact with people daily and gauge the mood of the nation something throwing phoney GDP numbers wont tell you.

If you calculate per capita of all BRF number it will be resonably good if Mukesh Ambani becomes BRF member it will sky rocket.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 12 May 2017 11:46

Austin: please, lets not go down that tangent in this thread. Use the perspectives on global economy thread for that screed.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 12 May 2017 20:43

To those who's commented on this before (Gus and some others): IIP and WPI data has been revised to use the newer 2011-12 base year used by GDP numbers. With the new base year, industrial production growth data has retroactively improved for the past 5 year period. It's possible GDP data will also be reviewed, since they're currently computed using old IIP series data:
New IIP, WPI series introduced, show overall benign macronumbers
Macro economic parameters improved in terms of industrial production in volume terms and wholesale price index under the new series of these indices. While the index of industrial production (IIP) rose 2.7% in March as against 1.9% in February, WPI inflation declined to a four-month low of 3.85% in April as compared to 5.29% in the previous month.

Inflation on the consumer price index, which has already been revised to a new series, declined to 2.99% in April as against 3.81% in the previous month.

The new series, launched on Friday, saw the base year in the two indices shifted to 2011-12 as against earlier 2004-05 to bring them in parity with other macroeconomic numbers such as the consumer price index and the gross domestic product.

The new series of IIP showed higher growth rates in most months in the period April 2012 to March 2017, as compared to the existing series. This is attributable to shifting of base to a more recent period; increase in number of factories in panel for reporting data and exclusion of closed ones and inclusion of new items and exclusion of old ones.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Marten » 12 May 2017 21:23

vish_mulay wrote:Hope this is a right thread for my query. anyone here has any experience in applying for or helping someone get the Mudra loans from govt? My mothers loyal aid for last 25 years (we call her mausi, literally she is like mother to us) is retiring due to ill health and its very emotional time for all of us. She wants to spend her last days at our native village with her brother and nephew. This particular nephew is a very nice and driven chap who wants to expand his farm tools repair shop and needs capital (currently he is borrowing from the local money lender with 24% interest short term). I can give him capital but was wondering whether he is eligible for the Mudra scheme and hence this query. I am encouraging him to write business details and future plans but being just ITI graduate and in market for less than 3 years, I am not sure he is capable of doing it. Any pointers how, where and paper process required for getting Mudra loan will be highly appreciated. Thanks in advance.

Tata Capital may have some publicity related schemes. Junta votes for a project and it is funded even if the person doesn't meet norms.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 12 May 2017 21:24

Rising Rupee No Barrier For India's High-Tech Export Machine
Indian exports are defying a firm rupee, riding a rise in global growth with a surge in shipments of the kind of high-tech goods every nation covets.

Exports rose to a six year high in March and, for now, that upward trend is tipped to continue as the world economy chugs along and foreign direct investment boosts productivity and stabilizes the economy, said Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist for HSBC Holding Plc.

“India’s merchandise exports have risen sharply over the last two months,” Bhandari wrote. “We find that the rise is coming from high-tech goods, particularly engineering goods and chemicals as well as medium-tech goods."

The improving performance comes despite the rupee's gain, which is up 5.1 percent this year and among the top-performing in Asia. Late last month, as the rupee hit a 20-month high, the Federation of Indian Export Organisation, said the currency’s appreciation is posing a challenge to competitiveness.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Austin » 13 May 2017 15:46

Prannoy Roy Speaks To Arvind Subramanian On State Of The Economy [ Video Interview ]

http://www.ndtv.com/video/business/ndtv ... o-featured

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Karthik S » 13 May 2017 16:53

Austin wrote:Prannoy Roy Speaks To Arvind Subramanian On State Of The Economy [ Video Interview ]

http://www.ndtv.com/video/business/ndtv ... o-featured


Good find with lot of good info. Rising exports despite strengthening rupee, inflation < 3%, revised IIP 5%. IDK what S&P are thinking considering so much difference between China and India in their rating. Cheen have 205% of debt as a percentage of their GDP, wow they are in serious mess.
Lastly looks like we still have socialists and commies in GST council, WTH were they thinking to put cars, AC and (did I hear furniture as well) in luxury item and tax 28%? These people have a frozen view of poor Indians and now they'll tax 28% for AC? Every damm house in cities has one these days. These have become a middle class goods and should not come under luxury items. And 6 slabs are too much, must bring down to 3 or 4 max.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Prasad » 13 May 2017 20:43

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 248_1.html

So the revision of base year shows last couple of UPA years were better than NDA2 years so far.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Dipanker » 13 May 2017 20:57

VenkataS wrote:Image



Are these numbers inflation adjusted? Otherwise when adjusted for inflation, a per capita of $83 in 1960 may be substantially higher than the 2015 per capita of $1581.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 13 May 2017 21:50

India per capita GDP now is around 2000 and China around 10000. Also comparison should be from 1978 for China and 1991 for India. the other countries were never socialist/communist.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 13 May 2017 22:18

Karthik S wrote:Lastly looks like we still have socialists and commies in GST council, WTH were they thinking to put cars, AC and (did I hear furniture as well) in luxury item and tax 28%? These people have a frozen view of poor Indians and now they'll tax 28% for AC? Every damm house in cities has one these days. These have become a middle class goods and should not come under luxury items. And 6 slabs are too much, must bring down to 3 or 4 max.

To be fair, the GST Council's actions are not quite a 'top down' thing from centre. It's primarily populated with state FMs, and the compromises are driven by various states' motives. The somewhat messy compromise that has been agreed upon is just how they got so many different states to finally sign on the dotted line. Those parameters can change in future once everyone is on board and simplification becomes easier to agree upon as GST functions on a day to day basis. In that situation it's easier to argue 'see, it's all working fine, but we just have too many slabs. Let's make it 3-4 onlee...'

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Austin » 13 May 2017 22:46

Karthik S wrote:
Austin wrote:Prannoy Roy Speaks To Arvind Subramanian On State Of The Economy [ Video Interview ]

http://www.ndtv.com/video/business/ndtv ... o-featured


Good find with lot of good info. Rising exports despite strengthening rupee, inflation < 3%, revised IIP 5%. IDK what S&P are thinking considering so much difference between China and India in their rating. Cheen have 205% of debt as a percentage of their GDP, wow they are in serious mess.


Its Credit to GDP Ratio , There are many countries that have similar to Chinese Credit to GDP ratio or even worse than that.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Austin » 13 May 2017 22:48

Global agencies’ arguments on India rating are ‘fundamentally flawed’: SBI report

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/mon ... 693666.ece

Mumbai, May 11:
Terming the arguments set out by global credit rating agencies for not upgrading India’s rating as ‘fundamentally flawed’, State Bank of India expressed concern that despite robust macro fundamentals, the country may not soon witness a rating upgrade.

Reasoning why India may not witness a rating upgrade, SBI said: “This is because, with the FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management) Committee emphasising on attaining 60 per cent Debt-to GDP-ratio by 2023, the rating agencies will get a reason to maintain the status quo, despite the other visible advances which India has made.”

Referring to rating agencies’ common argument of India’s high debt-to-GDP ratio being the reason for not upgrading the country’s rating, SBI’s economic research team, in its report Ecoflash, observed that at 69.5 per cent, the agencies argue this is on the higher side and effectively acts as an enabling factor for crowding out private investment.

“This argument is however fundamentally flawed, for two reasons. First, there are a number of countries which are rated above India, but have a significantly higher gross general government debt...


“Second, it is the composition of the government debt-to-GDP per se that matters for any discussion on debt solvency. For India, public debt is mostly internal,” said the report put together by the bank’s economic research team headed by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor.


India (rating: ‘BBB-’) has been languishing at the bottom of the investment-grade ladder in the ratings universe. In fact, India has had a net rating upgrade only once in the past 25 years, the report said.

Underscoring the fact that countries such as Japan (general government debt-to-GDP ratio of 239.2 per cent), Singapore (112 per cent), the US (107.4 per cent), Spain (99.3 per cent), France (96.6 per cent), and Canada (92.3 per cent) have debt positions which have been worsening over time, but that has not affected their ratings much, the report observed that this may be because of other macro fundamentals and the advantage of already being in the developed country bracket.

“India, on the other hand, has been consistently on the path of reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio to its present level from a peak of 84 per cent in 2003. The General Government Debt as a percentage of GDP was 69.5 per cent for 2016, and if we look at only public debt, it amounts to 42 per cent of GDP, of which only around 4 per cent is external debt,” said the report.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Austin » 13 May 2017 22:54

GOI is simply getting worked up by these Credit Rating Agency Ratings which is as much about Economics as it is about Politics.

These ratings agency are there to forward western economic dominance and if you have good economy but bad political equation with Western Nation you can get downgraded to Junk Status

And even if you have bad economy you would still get AAA rating because that would be the right thing to do politically. Like Once Obama famously said during 2008 crisis US will always Remain AAA no matter what and then S&P chief had to resign because they down graded US ratings one notch down !

Cheen similarly wont get downgraded based on its underperforming economy and bad debts but will retain good credit ratings because of its good political equation with west and the dependencies that West has on Chinese Economy for its own growth

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 13 May 2017 22:58

True

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 14 May 2017 00:28

“Second, it is the composition of the government debt-to-GDP per se that matters for any discussion on debt solvency. For India, public debt is mostly internal,” said the report put together by the bank’s economic research team headed by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor.


AFAIK, the main effect of the Standard & Poors or Moody's credit rating of the Indian government is on the interest rates the Indian government must pay for loans. How much lower would the GOI's interest payments be if Moody's changed the credit rating from Baa3 to Baa2?

Anyway,
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys- ... -PR_356437

Meanwhile, on the revenue side, India's large low-income population limits the government's tax revenue base. At 20.9% of GDP in 2015, general government revenues were markedly lower than the 27.1% median for Baa-rated sovereigns. Although the implementation of GST and other measures aimed at enhancing income declarations and tax collection will help widen and boost revenues, the effects will only materialize over time and their magnitude is uncertain so far.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Karan M » 14 May 2017 06:04

i suspect the ratings upgrade is a deep state ploy to put pressure on india for fcra and other modi govt moves.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby SwamyG » 16 May 2017 02:42

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 688676.cms
In an exclusive opinion poll of 59 CEOs for ET, the Modi government’s performance got an average rating of seven on a scale of 1 to 10, with a majority saying that their businesses have now fully recovered from the after-effects of demonetisation. About 46% of poll respondents praised the government’s work as excellent and said it has delivered on key promises.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 16 May 2017 03:04

Exports are picking up some serious momentum, at a time when Rupee is soaring too. Can't remember when we last had >20% export growth for successive months:
April exports rise 20% for eighth straight month at $24.6 bn
Exports in April grew at 19.4 per cent, resulting in growth for eight consecutive months, but the trade difference was the highest in 29 months because of a 49.2 per cent jump in imports.

The increase in imports was because of rising commodity prices and inbound shipments of gold, but it was also an indication of industrial recovery.

Exports had, however, grown higher at 27.6 per cent in March, which was the steepest in a little over five years.

Rupee rises to Rs.64.05 per dollar on strong macro data
Continuing its dominance against the dollar, the rupee shot up by a whopping 26 paise to end at a fresh 21-mth high of 64.05 driven by robust macro data even as exporters aggressively offloaded the American currency.

This is the rupee's highest closing since August 10, 2015, when it had ended at 63.87 against the US dollar.

The forex market sentiment remained broadly supported after retail inflation dropped sharply to 2.99 per cent in April from 3.90 per cent in March while wholesale inflation (as per new series) slipped to a four-month low of 3.85 per cent.

Though, industrial output growth slipped to 2.7 per cent in March as against 5.5 per cent a year ago, as per the new base year 2011-12.

Govt close to finalising 2nd ETF basket
The finance ministry's department of investment and public asset management (Dipam) is close to finalising the constituents of a second exchange traded fund (ETF).

ICICI Mutal Fund will manage this second ETF fund. The first one was launched in March 2014 and is managed by Reliance MF. It has garnered Rs 11,500 crore for the exchequer, in three tranches.

While the first ETF constituted exclusively of shares of state-owned companies, the second one, says sources, could comprise shares of at least two of three private companies in which the government holds a stake through Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India.

States' fiscal deficits touch 3.6% at 12-year high on higher capex, 2.7% excluding UDAY
According to the State Finances Report 2016-17 released by the RBI last Friday, excluding Uday bonds, the combined fiscal deficits of the states would have been 2.7 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). But including this, deficits jumped to a 12- year high of 3.6 per cent, which is the highest since FY04 when it had stood at 4.2 per cent.

"Though states' fiscal deficits rose to the highest since FY04 at 3.6 per cent in FY16, the expansion of state budgets have been mainly due to higher capital expenditure, which is a long-term credit positive for the states," India Ratings said in a note today.

Good stats article showing how IIP and WPI figures changed with new series:
Statsguru: New data paint a rosier picture
FICCI estimates 7.4% GDP growth in current fiscal
Industry body FICCI's latest Economic Outlook Survey has pegged India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth at around 7.4 percent for the fiscal year 2017-18. The survey was conducted during March and April 2017 recorded a median GDP group forecast of 7.4 percent for the current fiscal year, with a minimum and maximum level of 7 percent and 7.6 percent respectively.

The pick-up in overall GDP growth will also be supported by an improvement in industry and services sector growth.

"The industry and services sector are expected to grow by 6.9 per cent and 8.4 per cent respectively in 2017-18," FICCI said.

achoudhury
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 78
Joined: 06 Oct 2016 07:43

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby achoudhury » 17 May 2017 02:19

The sovereign rating is not just used for Govt borrowing. It impacts private sector borrowing as well as investment decisions by fund houses. Lot of allocation is based on the credit rating, especially by Pension funds. If India had better credit rating then investment in Infra would have been far better as Pension funds are ideally suited to fund long gestation infra projects which provide long term stable IRR


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