Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

[Suraj]

Only about $85 billion of the $470 billion is sovereign debt. All the ECBs and NRI deposits are not sovereign debt, i.e. GoI isn't liable for either of that either.

[SSridhar]

Hyderabad blues - Edit, Business Line

India has become rather secretive about its negotiating stance in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) — a trade bloc of 16 countries (Asean plus Japan, China, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand) which accounts for over 40 per cent of the world’s population and output. If the outcome of the Hanoi meet held about two months back was unclear, the recently concluded Hyderabad meet has left stakeholders in the dark. Surely, this is no way to conduct discussions on tariff lines for farm and industry products, e-commerce, intellectual property, the opening up of services and government procurement, impacting the livelihoods of millions of people. Apart from an observation by the commerce secretary to a section of the media (the commerce minister was not present at the meeting) that ‘there was enough political will to expedite the conclusion of the talks’, perhaps indicating that India wouldn’t walk out, no specifics were forthcoming. This is disconcerting in view of reports in the wake of the Hanoi meeting, which were neither confirmed nor denied by the Government, that India had agreed to 80 per cent free tariff lines (with a deviation of 6 per cent either way) against the demand of 92 per cent. This set off alarm bells in sections of industry and farmers’ organisations, which turned out in large numbers at the ‘alternative’ groupings in Hyderabad. The earlier three-tier formula of offering 80 per cent free tariff lines to Asean (keeping the FTA status quo), 65 per cent to Japan and Korea and 42 per cent to China has evidently been dropped. There are no indications that India has secured any gains on services, supposedly its bargaining chip for allowing more market access. The Centre must explain the progress of its talks and the rationale of its positions. It should take stakeholders into confidence — ranging from business chambers, big and small, farmers’ organisations and dairy cooperatives — before it sets off for the next round of talks in September.

Fears pertain in particular to opening up industrial sectors to China — India’s largest trading partner with whom it already runs a trade deficit of over $50 billion, or about half of India’s total trade deficit — besides the dairy sector to Australia and New Zealand. That India’s FTA experience with Asean has not been a happy one has been acknowledged by the commerce ministry and the Economic Survey 2015-16. India’s trade deficit with Asean has tripled to about $15 billion after the FTA was signed in 2010, whereas exports at about $25 billion are virtually stagnant, after rising to well above $30 billion in the intervening years. Imports of not just palm oil and coal, but chemicals, iron and steel, rubber, plastics and chemicals have impacted vast sectors of the economy.

This is not to argue against trade liberalisation per se, but to negotiate market access on our terms. While spurring competitive forces, India needs to put a better price on its large market and skilled workforce.
×

[A_Gupta]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 830675.cms

India's overall exports grew by 4.39 per cent to USD 23.56 billion in June, according to commerce ministry data.

Shipments in the first quarter of 2017-18 rose by 10.57 per cent to USD 72.21 billion while imports surged 32.78 per cent to USD 112.2 billion, leaving a trade deficit of USD 40 billion.

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst

[A_Gupta]

http://marketrealist.com/2017/07/indias ... e-uptrend/

Trade balance in June 2017

India’s (INDY) trade deficit in June 2017 remained above the market’s expectation of $12.5 billion. The country’s exports in the month stood at $23.6 billion, a 4.4% YoY rise—the slowest since January 2017. Exports rose for products such as rice at 27.3% and marine products at 24.3%.

Exports also rose for engineering goods, organic and inorganic chemicals, and petroleum products. Non-petroleum, non-gem, and jewelry shipments rose 6.0%, compared to the same period in 2016. Exports in 2Q17 stood at $72.2 billion, an 11% rise compared to 2Q16.

June’s imports stood at $36.5 billion, a 19% YoY rise but also the slowest rise since January 2017. Imports increased mainly for petroleum, crude, and crude products at 12.0%, electronic goods at 24.2%, pearls, precious stones, and semiprecious stones at 86.3%, machinery, electrical, and non-electrical at 7.0%, and gold at 102% in June, compared to the same period last year. Imports in 2Q17 stood at $112.3 billion, a 33% rise compared to 2Q16.

The biggest trade deficits were recorded with China, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Switzerland.

[jayasimha]

Press Information Bureau
Government of India
Ministry of Commerce & Industry


Index of Eight Core Industries (Base: 2011-12=100) June, 2017

The summary of the Index of Eight Core Industries (base: 2011-12) is given at the Annexure.

The Eight Core Industries comprise 40.27 % of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). The combined Index of Eight Core Industries stands at 121.0 in June, 2017, which was 0.4 % higher compared to the index of June, 2016. Its cumulative growth during April to June, 2017-18 was 2.4 %.


More details

http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease. ... lid=169319

[jayasimha]

http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease. ... lid=169306

Why not here also

Print ReleasePrintXClose
Press Information Bureau
Government of India
Ministry of Finance
31-July-2017 16:30 IST
Extension of date for filing of Income Tax Returns extended for five days up to 5th August, 2017

There are some complaints that the taxpayers are not being able to log on to the e-filing website of Income Tax Department or not being able to link Aadhaar with PAN because of different names reflected in PAN and Aadhaar database. While technical snags have been removed already, the main reason for failure of people to log in is because of last minute rush and panic in which those who have already logged in want to continue for the entire period for fear of losing it.

In order to ease-out the panic situation, the Government has decided to take the following steps:

• For the purpose of e-filing return, it would be sufficient as of now to quote Aadhaar or acknowledgement No. for having applied for Aadhaar in e-filing website. The actual linking of PAN with Aadhaar can be done subsequently, but any time before 31st August, 2017. However, the returns will not be processed until the linkage of Aadhaar with PAN is done.

• In order to facilitate the e-filing of return, it is also decided to give extension of five days for e-filing of return. The return can be filed upto 5th August, 2017.

****
DSM/SBS/KA

[Austin]

** Deleted **

[Suraj]

That post is unrelated to the Indian economy . Once again, please keep global economy talk to its own thread . The US is in a rising rate regime . We are in a falling rate regime, i.e. our situation is the opposite of what he warns them about theirs .

[Singha]

ndtv

Over 11.44 Lakh PANs Deactivated, Says Junior Finance Minister
"As on July 27, 11,44,211 PANs have been identified and deleted or de-activated in cases where multiple PANs were found allotted to one person," Santosh Kumar Gangwar said.

[Austin]

That post is unrelated to the Indian economy . Once again, please keep global economy talk to its own thread . The US is in a rising rate regime . We are in a falling rate regime, i.e. our situation is the opposite of what he warns them about theirs .

Just happened by mistake and not intentional was suppose to post on prespective econimic dhaga

[vish_mulay]

http://www.seattletimes.com/business/in ... 6-percent/

India’s central bank has cuts its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, raising hopes of lower borrowing costs for households as inflation ebbs.

[Suraj]

The rate cut was widely expected. Ideally they'd have cut it 0.50% . Maybe there will be a follow on rate cut before Diwali.

[Kashi]

I wonder why RBI is being cautious here, as you pointed out 0.50% was probably most expected. GST perhaps?

[Suraj]

That's as good a guess as any . We've just upended the entire tax system . 'Wait and see how well this is working out' is probably the guiding principle .

I don't think 0.5% was expected . 25bp was almost certain . But they probably want to see if GST results in a temporary inflation spike , though CPI is below 2% now I think .

[nash]

Stamping its best single-day show this year, the rupee today surged by 37 paise to breach the the psychological 64-level against the US dollar and finally ended at a fresh two-year high of 63.70 after the RBI set the platform by lowering the repo rate by 0.25 per cent.

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst

[Prasad]

That's as good a guess as any . We've just upended the entire tax system . 'Wait and see how well this is working out' is probably the guiding principle .

I don't think 0.5% was expected . 25bp was almost certain . But they probably want to see if GST results in a temporary inflation spike , though CPI is below 2% now I think .

How much can it spike given that inflation is in the gutter? And not likely to increase due to gas prices remaining more or less stable. There haven't been any uproars over gst so far (cong excluding). Might hear some squeals when the filing with gstn begins. If the IT website is any benchmark, expect tons of squealing.

[Suraj]

RBI tends to be of the conservative 'let's wait and see' bent. If the inflation situation keeps looking benign through start of festival season, then I expect another rate cut.

[disha]

It is better to give small rate cuts strung over time., particularly when a tsunami of money will be invested in a year time.

I am actually supportive of current RBI interest rates., since the excesses committed in the UPA regime still need to be mopped up. There are banks with significant NPAs and there are several large corporates on the verge of bankruptcy. A large interest rate cut will help the later to paper over their debt obligation and totter around as vampires sucking out real growth.

[A_Gupta]

Bloomberg reports:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ls-economy

The Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index fell to 46 in July from 52.7 in June, the steepest drop since March 2009, a report showed Thursday. Activity in the key services sector plunged to 45.9 from from 53.1 -- the lowest since September 2013 -- after data showed manufacturing slumped the most since 2009. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Key findings from the services sector:

About 23 percent of survey participants reported lower output
Four of five broad areas contracted, except for finance and insurance
Outstanding business rose reflecting difficulties in obtaining payments
Employment fell the most in eight-and-a-half years, halting a four-month streak of job creation
Prices charged rose at the quickest pace since 2013

[A_Gupta]

From the above, some key upcoming reporting dates:

Investors now await official June factory output data due Aug. 11, July inflation scheduled for Aug. 14 and April-June GDP numbers due Aug. 31. At the end of the month, the government will also share federal finances during July, the first indicator of how the GST is affecting tax revenue. Also this month the Reserve Bank of India typically announces its dividend payout to the government and the annual report, which could offer an estimate of gains or losses from the cash clampdown.

[vijayk]

Talking to few people who are/were big Modi's supporters.

Their point is Black money drive has curtailed demand in the market

Demand was never an issue in India until now.

Modi/FM are going hard collecting every penny and not giving break at all in taxes

They are worried about this impact on whole economy if corrective steps are not taken.

What do you think?

[Raveen]

Talking to few people who are/were big Modi's supporters.

Their point is Black money drive has curtailed demand in the market

Demand was never an issue in India until now.

Modi/FM are going hard collecting every penny and not giving break at all in taxes

They are worried about this impact on whole economy if corrective steps are not taken.

What do you think?

If that demand doesn't come from legal sources or funds, then how does it help?
If they've roped in more of the informal economy into the formal one...then kudos to them.
No breaks are owed to people to don't pay taxes.

[vijayk]

I agree about informal.
My worry is about 2019 impact

[Raveen]

I agree about informal.
My worry is about 2019 impact

Sure - I understand that...but we'll have to wait till 2018/2019 for the year of politics Modi and Shah always bring after 4 years of governance. Let's see how that pans out. People have short memories.

[Suraj]

Bloomberg reports:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ls-economy

The Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index fell to 46 in July from 52.7 in June, the steepest drop since March 2009, a report showed Thursday. Activity in the key services sector plunged to 45.9 from from 53.1 -- the lowest since September 2013 -- after data showed manufacturing slumped the most since 2009. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Key findings from the services sector:

About 23 percent of survey participants reported lower output
Four of five broad areas contracted, except for finance and insurance
Outstanding business rose reflecting difficulties in obtaining payments
Employment fell the most in eight-and-a-half years, halting a four-month streak of job creation
Prices charged rose at the quickest pace since 2013

PMI data needs to be understood in this context. It is *not* some kind of raw production data. Rather, it's a survey asking how things are, and how things are expected to be. See Purchasing Managers Index. In June, there was a lot of uncertainity about GST beginning July 1. So the PMI drop is a blip.

[vijayk]

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/what-de ... to-in-2019
What DeMo And GST Would Lead To In 2019

The Indian economy is heading towards a unique trajectory — bitter over the next two-quarters till end-2017, sweet beyond that — that will capture the following.

One, the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) will decrease in the short term and makeup in the medium to long term.

Two, the growth of tax collections, both direct and indirect, will increase in the short term and consolidate itself to a new normal in the medium and long term.

Three, as a result of the above, the tax-GDP ratio will jump in the short term and show a consistent but slower rise beyond that.

Four, by FY 2019 — around the time India will go for general elections — the government will be acting from a position of a full treasury.

Five, that growing treasury will give the government a fiscal flexibility that no other government would have seen.

These are consequences of two disruptive policy actions — demonetisation and the introduction of the goods and services tax (GST) — both of which lead the economy in the same direction.

Enough has been written about the adverse impact of demonetisation introduced on 8 November 2016. The scintillating short-term evidence of which was the 130 basis point fall in India’s GDP growth to 6.1 per cent for the January to March 2017 quarter (the first full quarter after demonetisation and enough to assess its impact economically) from 7.4 per cent in the previous October to December 2016 quarter, and 7.6 per cent in the same quarter of the previous year.

Although a quarter is no indicator of rankings, within the confines of statistics, the quarter also saw India relinquish its position of being the world’s fastest-growing large economy to China, which grew by 6.9 per cent in the same period

According to an analysis by the Income Tax Department, of the 1.8 million persons identified for verification, taxpayers provided 1.3 million accounts involving cash deposits of Rs 2.89 lakh crore. Search actions were conducted on 900 groups in which undisclosed income of Rs 16,398 crore was admitted, while survey actions were conducted in 8,239 cases in which undisclosed income of Rs 6,746 crore was detected.

More than 400 cases were referred to the Enforcement Directorate (ED) that arrested 18 evaders and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), which arrested 38 evaders.

Further, since demonetisation, we have seen the number of taxpayers rise by 9.1 million, according to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.

This is a great start, the trend of which we expect to continue over the next few quarters.

The policy of converting demonetisation into a tool for increasing taxpayers is working, and the moral messaging embedded in the policy — cash is risk — is getting through to evaders. “One message has gone out clearly as per the steps taken by CBDT post demonetisation,” Jaitley said. “It is no longer safe to deal with excessive cash and tax evaded money. It is absolutely clear that those who have been indulging in all these are no longer safe.”

There is a method working behind this: technology and big data, using which evaders have been identified.

In the second phase of the government’s Operation Clean Money, more than 60,000 persons, including 1,300 high risk persons, have been identified for investigation into claims of excessive cash sales during the demonetisation period, while more than 6,000 transactions of high value property purchase and 6,600 cases of outward remittances shall be subjected to detailed investigations, Central Board of Direct Taxes chairman Sushil Chandra said: “If you are doing something wrong, there is not only one department, other departments will also take action simultaneously.

Fear should be in the mind of the assessee if they are doing something wrong. There should be no fear in the mind of honest taxpayer.”

If technology and data analytics has delivered results, both financial and moral, around demonetisation and direct taxes, the GST goes one step ahead on the GST and indirect taxes front.

Other issues like electricity or broadband availability are being addressed through GST Suvidha Providers. It is a clean system, the benefits of which will show up in the last quarter of FY 2018.

Those who said the GST system would collapse under the weight of transactions as it comes to life on 1 July have been proved wrong beyond doubt. The GST takes India to a more efficient, cleaner and less stressful tax system. But as has been expressed here earlier, the next two-quarters, from July to December 2017, the transition to GST will extract a price.

And that price will be in the form of a slower GDP growth. This will be the policy bow being pulled.

The arrow unleashed, the stability of the GST system will come in the January to March 2018 quarter, after which the uptick will be sharp.

This will be due to a rise in the number of taxpayers as well as the amount of taxes that were so far being evaded — on indirect taxes of course, but on direct taxes as well.

The next three-quarters, from April to December 2018, will see the treasuries of both the Central and State governments fill up. On the Central side, this will give Prime Minister Narendra Modi the leeway to do three things.

One, invest the surplus in further accelerating economic growth by spending on infrastructure — good economics, good politics.

Two, use the extra indirect taxes collected to reduce individual income taxes — good politics, good economics.

And three, fritter it away on entitlements like introducing the universal basic income — good politics, bad economics.

This would come at a time when India would have shifted from a fiscal year that begins on 1 April to a calendar year that harmonises finances with the rest of the world.

Meaning: the last Union Budget of the Modi government will have the executive mandate to spend this extra money without conflicting with Election Commission rules.

[Atmavik]

RBI has cut the interest rate(repo) to 6%. what is the formula used to pass this on to the general public. is it at the discretion of the banks?

i

[Suraj]

That article looks like disha wrote it

[hanumadu]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tec ... 883293.cms

[Manish_Sharma]

Suraj can I place this post here, to get more in-depth analysis?

On a purchasing power parity basis, PRC economy is less than 3x Indian economy. Then you consider the access we have to Western and Russian technologies. Our command and control structure is also more adaptable/flexible, plus our leadership has democratic legitimacy.

Xi Jinping must have been shocked when Indian foreign minister says we still have 350 men on the Bhutanese plateau. His own army is lying to him and said it is only 48. No one tells the truth to anyone in PRC. All lies, all the way up the chain. How can Xi Jinping have any faith in what PLA says and in what they can do (apart from civil engineering projects).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... _GDP_(PPP)

IMF data for 2017: India $9.5tn, PRC $23.2tn. So the ratio is more like 2.4x, and shrinking rapidly.

The CPC and PLA are morally bankrupt. If they take on a country of our size, strength and global standing, CPC/PLA will be history in no time. The Tibetan and Chinese people will forever will be grateful to us for liberating them.

[Suraj]

What's probably more important is annual incremental output, which is a better measure of dynamic output. On the GDP PPP rankings, here are the 2017 figures:
1. China $23.2 trillion
2. USA $19.4 trillion
3. India $9.5 trillion

But this can be seen another way - how much more output does each country add per year ? IMF data shows that for 2017->2018, the incremental output is:
China: $23.2 trillion to $25.1 trillion, or just under $2 trillion in incremental output
India: $9.5 trillion to $10.5 trillion, or $1 trillion in incremental output
US: $19.4 trillion to $20.3 trillion, ~$800 billion in incremental output

In other words, India is already the second largest economy on the planet in terms of annual incremental economic output in terms of PPP, and incremental output is already ~50% of that of PRC despite them being 2.5x larger. IMF database estimates suggest we'll keep adding more than the US every year, i.e. we will overtake the US by the mid/late 2020s.

An incremental annual output of $1 trillion means we add output equal to the entire TSP economy to our PPP GDP every year.

[Karthik S]

Suraj, as the GDP increases, will the ratio of PPP/nominal decrease over time, right now it's 9.5/2.5 =3.8. If the nominal touches $4T, I don't think the PPP will be around $15.2T, it will be lower as the cost of living usually increases with higher employment based GDP.

[Suraj]

That depends on too many factors to give a straight answer to.

[Manish_Sharma]

Thanks Suraj !!!

[Austin]

We had this discussion some time back and I remember some one mentioned measuring PPP was useless if our currency does not have a full convertible status like USD or Euro , Chini are facing the same issue their advantage is larger trading base and IMF has now given their currency reserve status of about 10 % which is bigger than Japan and UK % wise who have full convertible currency like USD or Euro

[Suraj]

PPP was created to better represent the value of output of the same goods and services generated by different countries with widely disparate exchange rates, e.g. a haircut is the same everywhere . PPP and absolute are two sides of a coin . The former assumes every standard goods or services are worth the same, but can be distorted by lack of convertibility . Absolute measures everything in dollars but adds the distortion hat the same thing cost different $ prices in various places.

[Kakkaji]

Gurus:

Any thoughts about the new Vice-Chairman of NITI Aayog - Dr. Rajiv Kumar?

What are his strengths and weaknesses? Is he a policy guy or implementation guy?

TIA

[Suraj]

Well, we don't really have 'gurus' here - this thread has a high profile because many interested people contribute. So why not take the chance to look him up yourself and post a synopsis ?

[chetak]

The NDTV Dialogues With Arvind Panagariya

Comes out as a very sensible guy.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ebhivu-Fc3U

[Prem]

https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/WSSView.aspx?Id=21564
Reserves now 393 Billions, on way to cross 400 Billion in next few weeks.