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Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby gashish » 09 Mar 2017 23:19

Cracking the GDP mystery

Good analysis that addresses most of the criticism directed towards CSO for GDP numbers...

1) GVA growth is in line with forecasts, it is surge in indirect taxes that provided part of the "unexpected" GDP growth.

While GVA growth is pretty close to private forecasts, what lifted the GDP is the strong 12.3% surge in indirect taxes that the CSO estimates for this fiscal. This is a plausible number, given that the Centre’s indirect tax collections already surged by 25% in April-December 2016, powered by higher excise duty on fuel and service tax.



2) Why collapse in sales of certain goods such as two-wheelers may not necessarily indicate all-round collapse? And what about anaemic bank loan growth?

Commentators cite some key indicators to ‘prove’ that economic activity shrank in the note ban months. For instance, two-wheeler sales collapsed by 22% year-on-year in December, banks reported anaemic loan growth at 5%, cement despatches fell by 9% and realtors saw a 40% dip in home sales.

But given that the economy is made up of literally hundreds of products and sectors, it is well within the realm of possibility that the economy did well even while these indicators slowed. For instance, for the same December month, steel output grew by 15%, power generation surged by 6% and refinery output expanded 6.4%. If bank credit slumped, companies doubled their borrowings from the bond market.


3) Was impact on GVA understimated? Probably not.

But making up for these was the 6% rebound in agriculture (2.2% shrinkage last year), 6.8% increase in electricity, gas and water supply and a bumper 11.9% hike in ‘public administration, defence and other services’ which lifted the GVA.

December quarter results from listed companies also provide independent confirmation that the big picture wasn’t much dented by the note ban. A Business Line analysis of over 1,700 listed companies showed that they just reported their best quarterly performance in three years, with sales growing over 9% and profits expanding 20%.

Commentary from listed firms suggests that urban discretionary purchases bounced back quickly as consumers switched to digital payments. Commodity industries, helped by global price rebound, did very well this quarter. In some sectors, business shifted from the unorganised to organised players due to digital payments.

Analysts also suspect that, in some cases, companies mopped up demonetised notes from their distribution channels and pumped them with inventory instead. (This would show up as ‘sales’ in the company’s books and as ‘output’ in GDP estimates)


4) what about impact on informal sector being underestimated?

Owing to such guesswork, it is quite likely that the quarterly GVA estimate, which mainly uses data from the formal sector, painted a rosier picture of growth than the ground reality. But then, if the CSO — with its access to multiple data sources — has no way to estimate the quarterly performance of the informal sector, neither does anyone else.

As long as the CSO consistently follows the same method for measuring the informal sector and publicly discloses it, this is the only estimate we have to gauge economic activity. Both the methodology for estimating informal sector performance and GDP revisions are well-documented and disclosed on the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation website.

More accurate estimates of what really transpired in the Indian economy post-demonetisation will be available when the CSO publishes its first revised GDP estimates, with more ground-level data, in January 2018.

Until then, critics must follow Keynes’s tenet — when facts change, it is best to change your mind.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Prem » 10 Mar 2017 07:05

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... s?from=mdr

After Kharif, India set to reap record rabi crops: NCAER

As per the NCAER's report on the short-term agricultural outlook for the 2017 Rabi season, Gross Value Added (GVA) in agriculture and allied sector registered a significant 3.3 per cent year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2016-17 as compared to 1.8 per cent growth in the previous quarter. Overall, a robust growth of 4.1 per cent is estimated for the agriculture sector in 2016-17 as against the previous year's drought-impacted growth rate of 1.2 per cent. In comparison, the latest official estimates suggest 4.4 per cent growth for 2016-17 and 0.8 per cent for 2015-16. "The agriculture sector is projected to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2016-17, which is more than double the drought- impacted growth rate of 1.2 per cent in 2015-16. "After a record or near-record production of most Kharif crops in 2016-17, India is heading for a record or near-record production of Rabi crops," said NCAER's Senior Research Counsellor, Rajesh Cha ..

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby SRoy » 10 Mar 2017 14:15

A_Gupta wrote:https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-07/india-needs-to-fix-state-owned-banks-then-sell-them

The Big Reform India Needs Most

"For his country to reach its true economic potential, however, he will need to do something about India’s ailing state banks."


Essentially, what Bloomberg is saying is that please sell off your PSU banks to Western MNC banks.
Sometimes a militant trade union helps. Such as times as these.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 10 Mar 2017 15:03

That may be what they're saying, but GoI's planning something else - they're merging all the SBI entities into one:
SBI merger with five associate banks from 1 April
The associate banks are State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur (SBBJ), State Bank of Mysore (SBM), State Bank of Travancore (SBT), State Bank of Hyderabad (SBH) and State Bank of Patiala (SBP).

In a gazette notification dated 22 February and released on Thursday, the government said that all shares of these associate banks would cease to exist as individual entities and would stand transferred to SBI.

After the merger, SBI is set to be among the top 50 large banks of the world. SBI was ranked 52 in the world in terms of assets in 2015, according to Bloomberg, and a merger will see it break into the top 50.

And more to come:
After SBI, 5 more public sector banks look to merge
Image
India needs a fewer number of big banks with large balance sheets, instead of the current fragmented set of relative pygmies. In fact, even 6 PSBs after all the mergers above is too many. Better to have just 3 at most, each with huge deposit bases that put them within the top 50 in the world.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 10 Mar 2017 16:15

selling them off will be backdoor entry for MNC banks. who will close all "unviable" rural branches and serve only tier1 cities as usual.

that is never on the cards.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 10 Mar 2017 16:21

India already has a healthy private and foreign banking presence, and that's good enough. There's no plan on the cards to sell off major banks to MNCs. This is all about consolidation and scale. The only opposition to it comes from their bloated PSU employee payroll worried about retrenchment.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby SaraLax » 10 Mar 2017 16:25

Suraj wrote:And more to come:
After SBI, 5 more public sector banks look to merge
Image
India needs a fewer number of big banks with large balance sheets, instead of the current fragmented set of relative pygmies. In fact, even 6 PSBs after all the mergers above is too many. Better to have just 3 at most, each with huge deposit bases that put them within the top 50 in the world.


What ?
If the above is going to indeed happen - then it will lead to too many branches of that one consolidated bank in the same road or same building even. But before all of these would happen - lots of bank employees would need to get retrenched.

Financial Technologies are already making some bank employees redundant. Now the merger of 3+ banks with a bigger bank to create a sort of Regional 'Mega Bank' would lead to closure of many branches as well as retrenchment of redundant bank employees in substantial numbers. Then there is complexity of inter-operationalization & mating of the different CBS & Fraud Detection related s/w's used by the PSU banks. Can all of these even happen without any substantial job culling ?. It will be very tough for any incumbent government to do such bank mergers. The FM would be gheroaed like hell by PSU bank unions and federal govt. in power might well be voted out of power in the coming LS election.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Yagnasri » 10 Mar 2017 16:39

There is no need for any culling of employees. A lot of people are at the stage of retirement, and there is hardly any new recruitments. Too few banks will kill the options to customers.I have seen how big PSU banks treat SME sector which is the backbone of any economy. True that size matters and needed. But the size and number of banks needed to be done based on the market and not by MoF babus. Big banks, in fact, have large numbers babus working there and nothing else. In fact what is needed is more banks and not less. Most of the country is without banking facilities. We need all kinds of banks also. The Postal Bank is to be pursued on a war footing, and that will give large banking network in rural areas in no time.

Allow free opening of new banks with mandatory large capital say Rs. 10k Cr and let mergers etc. even in PSU Banks happen based on the market forces.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby arshyam » 10 Mar 2017 16:43

I don't know. Fewer the number of banks, greater the chance of US style bank cartelization (banksters in Neshant saar's terminology ;)), especially after they are privatised. The latter will happen at some point, the number of PSBs notwithstanding. Better to keep the variety, but privatise them slowly. Plus, this is the time we are increasing the banking service penetration into a hitherto unserved/underserved population. This transition is important, and will need the manpower to see it through. Eventually, I expect the increased banking usage along with GDP growth to create some genuine behemoths. No need to the force the issue, I'd think.

@Suraj saar, what will be the benefit in having a global rank (say) #10 bank?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Gus » 10 Mar 2017 18:51

deleted-wrong thread

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 10 Mar 2017 19:12

Bloomberg News opinion on Indian labor laws and labor situation:
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/arti ... bs-malaise
Despite world-leading economic growth, India is struggling to create jobs. In 2015, India’s job creation was the slowest on record: only 135,000 net new jobs were created in key sectors for the estimated 12 million youth who joined the workforce, government data show.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 10 Mar 2017 21:02

SaraLax wrote:What ?
If the above is going to indeed happen - then it will lead to too many branches of that one consolidated bank in the same road or same building even. But before all of these would happen - lots of bank employees would need to get retrenched.

Financial Technologies are already making some bank employees redundant. Now the merger of 3+ banks with a bigger bank to create a sort of Regional 'Mega Bank' would lead to closure of many branches as well as retrenchment of redundant bank employees in substantial numbers. Then there is complexity of inter-operationalization & mating of the different CBS & Fraud Detection related s/w's used by the PSU banks. Can all of these even happen without any substantial job culling ?. It will be very tough for any incumbent government to do such bank mergers. The FM would be gheroaed like hell by PSU bank unions and federal govt. in power might well be voted out of power in the coming LS election.

Related news:
Merged SBI entity may reduce job hirings by 30,000
The State Bank of India (SBI) merger with its five associate banks is likely to close the door to future job recruitments at the merged entity. It is estimated that there could be reduction of 25-30 percent in hirings at the unified bank. In number terms, hiring could come down by 30,000 jobs in the next one year. “SBI’s average recruitments are about 15,000-20,000 every year and last year, we recruited about 19,000 people. Every year we also have 8,000-10,000 people retiring, so we will just end up recruiting fewer people. Much of the additional hiring will depend on the growth and the merger’s purpose is growth,” said Dinesh Kumar Khara, Managing Director at State Bank of India.

A hiring freeze would do the job for them , no need for politically crippling retrenchments.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vina » 10 Mar 2017 21:41

On the ground in India, what I see today is absolutely un-precendented labour mobility, which is exactly on the lines of what classical economy theory would predict. In S. India, I think the entire lower end of labor has been simply vacated by the local folks ( I wonder what they do now, drive Under/Ola ? Drive Autos ? All the Uber /Ola guys are Kannada speaking, clearly locals). This is true from cities, down to farms.

For e.g., today, I went to Iyer Mess in Malleshwaram for lunch with some very senior Jernail (yeah, all the Chi-Chi folks ate out of Banana leaves with their hands, and loved the nostalgia of typical food all grew up with , but don't get anymore .. between that and eating at Shangri La / Four Seasons , give me Iyer mess any day!)

Even in a hole in the wall place like that, right in the middle of Malleshwaram market area (this is not a mall mind you, but really old areas), the servers were all N.India (looked Eastern UP / Bihar) kind of guys and I am sure there were more in the kitchen and cleaning staff. Some 25 years ago, the N. Indian labour in Bangalore would have been literally ZERO. Okay, if this is Bangalore, even in remote highway restaurants in Dharmapuri, the waiters and stuff were from Assam /BIhar, and in a poultry farm of my dad's friend ( a retired doctor), nearly every worker is from Bihar/ E. UP. If this is the scene in the South, I am sure it must be the same scene around Delhi /Punjab and the West (Guj, MH, Bombay -Pune belt ).

Basically says two things. The situation in UP/Bihar/Eastern India is so tough, that these folks migrate all over the country to fill simply any job they can get, and that the locals in the rest of India have it far better in terms of jobs and livelihood that casual labour or any generic labour is not something that they get into at all anymore!

In many ways , this kind of mobility and absorbing that without any major tensions /frictions where we have migrant labor for security/cook/waiter/sales girl /Ayah etc kind of jobs is amazing and is something that is remarkable and shows the inherent tolerance and acceptance of the people of this country. In Europe, sizeable Polish and E.European labor class move to the UK and they immediately have "Brexit". European mobility sets off huge friction and backlash , while here, it is even down to hole in the wall shops (not even malls, or even something like MTR) and we simply shrug and get on with it.

Of course, in the minds of the DMK kind of Dravidian parties, the word "Iyer Mess" would set off stereotypes of all TamBrahm place, with everyone from waiter to cook to cashier to owner , not to mention all customers being TamBrahm. The reality here is so different from that (the only identifiable TamBrahm there was the old cashier) , all the customers were practically everyone and of course, the cook to the waiter to everyone were as well. The only thing that was "TamBrahm" about that place was the food , the name and the cashier !

Just shows how far we have come in the last 60 years as both as a society and also as an economy!

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 10 Mar 2017 22:11

arshyam wrote:I don't know. Fewer the number of banks, greater the chance of US style bank cartelization (banksters in Neshant saar's terminology ;)), especially after they are privatised. The latter will happen at some point, the number of PSBs notwithstanding. Better to keep the variety, but privatise them slowly. Plus, this is the time we are increasing the banking service penetration into a hitherto unserved/underserved population. This transition is important, and will need the manpower to see it through. Eventually, I expect the increased banking usage along with GDP growth to create some genuine behemoths. No need to the force the issue, I'd think.

@Suraj saar, what will be the benefit in having a global rank (say) #10 bank?

It's not about global rank. That is just a consequence. It's about size and scale. We need banks that can actually fund major projects. All these little banks literally don't have enough money to lend out to you, if you're building out the CBD in some major city and need funds to build a bunch of tall skyscrapers. And if they do, they offer it at a high rate, which essentially bakes in a higher probability of default, because a lot of your payment is the interest cost.

The US banking issues are an unnecessary distraction in this thread. Many US issues stem from myopic deregulation of the firewall between consumer and investment banking. We have a completely different set of considerations. Not only do we have such a firewall (we even actively restrict the ability of PSU insurance companies to invest in equities), but we're too conservative about running our banking system. There's no *need* for 25 different PSU banks. It's woefully inefficient. Just 3-4 PSU banks with about >$300B in deposit bases each, is plenty. GoI is heading that way. Such large banks can lay out capital more effectively. In addition, all the current bad loans should be transferred off the books into that of a bad bank that will serve to focus on the bankruptcy and capital reallocation process.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby hanumadu » 10 Mar 2017 22:50

vina wrote:Basically says two things. The situation in UP/Bihar/Eastern India is so tough, that these folks migrate all over the country to fill simply any job they can get, and that the locals in the rest of India have it far better in terms of jobs and livelihood that casual labour or any generic labour is not something that they get into at all anymore!



It also shows the education level in the north vs the south. South is educated enough to move up the value chain while people in the north are content with menial jobs.

vina wrote:In many ways , this kind of mobility and absorbing that without any major tensions /frictions where we have migrant labor for security/cook/waiter/sales girl /Ayah etc kind of jobs is amazing and is something that is remarkable and shows the inherent tolerance and acceptance of the people of this country.


Hope this tolerance remains when the kids of these migrant workers get educated and compete with the locals for the well paying/white collar jobs.

Melwyn

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Melwyn » 10 Mar 2017 23:45

OT but most of the migrant labourers I've met in Bengaluru were from Odisha.

An Oriya friend of mine once lamented how various NGOs and other entities derail every development activity in Odisha by using environment or other issues as a beating stick. Worse still these groups will try to show up on the side of the tribals and the downtrodden. Once the development plans failed and investors pulled out, these NGOs will disappear overnight leaving thousands of poorest tribals and villagers at the mercy of one true lord. Most of these poor people will then migrate to places like Gujarat where they worked in industries and lived in pathetic conditions while trying to support their families.
Last edited by Melwyn on 11 Mar 2017 05:32, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby SRoy » 11 Mar 2017 00:19

^^
So why do these "poor tribals" and "downtrodden" side with NGO's in the first place?

Melwyn

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Melwyn » 11 Mar 2017 00:25

They don't, they are just oblivious of the higher level machinations that is being perpetrated by the massa of far off land. You will often see the protest being carried out by the illiterate tribals carrying placards written in bold letter English.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Gus » 11 Mar 2017 01:13

SRoy wrote:^^
So why do these "poor tribals" and "downtrodden" side with NGO's in the first place?


You only need to co-opt some leader types in the community to claim that everybody is with the NGO and NGO is fighting for them.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vijayk » 11 Mar 2017 05:25

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/radical-r ... s-congress

The Ministry of Finance has released the net direct and indirect tax collection figures till February 2017 today (10 March). The net direct tax collection stands at Rs 6.17 lakh crore, up 10.7 per cent over the corresponding period (April to February) last year. Net indirect tax collection, on the other hand, stands at Rs 7.72 lakh crore, up 22.2 per cent.

Till February, about 90.9 per cent of the revised estimates of indirect taxes for the financial year has been achieved, said the ministry’s press release, pegging direct taxes at 72.9 per cent of the total budget estimates of direct taxes for the year.

Net tax collection from central excise, service tax and customs – at Rs 3.45 lakh crore, Rs 2.21 lakh crore and 2.05 lakh crore respectively – are up 36.2 per cent, 20.8 per cent and 5.2 per cent, respectively, over the corresponding period last financial year.

In terms of gross revenue collection, both corporate income tax and personal income tax registered growth rates of 11.9 per cent and 20.8 per cent respectively. However, after adjusting for refunds, the net growth collections stand at 2.6 per cent and 19.5 per cent respectively.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Yagnasri » 11 Mar 2017 05:40

Who is funding large projects in India now? Indian banks only. There are problems in that. True. But not in funding as such. Just now Jio took/taking a loan of some 80k Cr loans. Who did organised it? Indian Banks only. The argument that we need large banks for large projects is not correct. We are already doing it. True that we need large banks like SBI. But that does not mean all banks needed to be large.

As I have posted before if the market makes it happen let it be. But given the option, I go for a healthy mix of all sizes of banks. Just like IAF. We need our LCA type banks which in fact as a policy do not lend large amounts. This will facilitate more funding to SME sector.

I have seen people from NE even in the deep south of TN. Locals are working, but jobs are also there in the south. But hate is there in some places like Mumbai wherein locals are not hungry for self-growth. In Mumbai locals hate non-locals, and that is all not because of Siva Sena politics. It is good that such things are not there in KA or TA. But in TS it is there. The entire reason for demanding the division of AP is the hatred for non-locals.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby nachiket » 11 Mar 2017 05:54

Yagnasri wrote:Who is funding large projects in India now? Indian banks only. There are problems in that. True. But not in funding as such. Just now Jio took/taking a loan of some 80k Cr loans. Who did organised it? Indian Banks only. The argument that we need large banks for large projects is not correct. We are already doing it. True that we need large banks like SBI. But that does not mean all banks needed to be large.

We need many many more large infra projects to be reliably funded and completed if we want to reach and exceed our potential. Even now truly big projects like DFC require external funding from JICA etc.

And SBI while being a giant in India is still relatively small by international standards. One of the reasons for China's runaway growth was their ability to create enormous amounts of local credit. Having banks with huge deposit bases helps in that regard I think.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Yagnasri » 11 Mar 2017 06:09

I think I have some serious direct exposure in this area, sir. I do not see any problem funding large projects and Loans are the only solution. We can always go to bond market. In fact, the problem is how those big projects are being managed by the promoters who are not knowing what to do most of the time.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 11 Mar 2017 06:55

Yagnasri wrote:Who is funding large projects in India now? Indian banks only. There are problems in that. True. But not in funding as such. Just now Jio took/taking a loan of some 80k Cr loans. Who did organised it? Indian Banks only. The argument that we need large banks for large projects is not correct. We are already doing it. True that we need large banks like SBI. But that does not mean all banks needed to be large.

Well, at what interest rate ? Reliance is the largest company in the country. How many more multibillion dollar loans can be disbursed, by which banks and at what rate ?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Yagnasri » 11 Mar 2017 08:13

Any funds from India will have the same or almost same rate of interest rate sir. Unless it is ECBs. That is External Commercial borrowings. Other projects are also funded extensively. I do not know any project not getting funds because the amount is big. Yes the rate of interest is higher than outside funds. But that is the cost of funds in India.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby ramki » 11 Mar 2017 08:30

Gus wrote:
SRoy wrote:^^
So why do these "poor tribals" and "downtrodden" side with NGO's in the first place?


You only need to co-opt some leader types in the community to claim that everybody is with the NGO and NGO is fighting for them.


Samething happens in srikakulam and vizayanagaram districts of Andhra. No worthwhile development is allowed there by foreign ngos with the help of communist people.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 11 Mar 2017 12:02

Yagnasri wrote:Any funds from India will have the same or almost same rate of interest rate sir. Unless it is ECBs. That is External Commercial borrowings. Other projects are also funded extensively. I do not know any project not getting funds because the amount is big. Yes the rate of interest is higher than outside funds. But that is the cost of funds in India.

So 80K cr at 9.7% interest rate ? That's pretty terrible as far as cost of capital goes.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 11 Mar 2017 12:08

Gleanings from the UP poll result:
* Demonetization hasn't hurt the government politically at all. Quite the contrary. It has enormously boosted faith in the central government's desire to do good, even if there's temporary pain. People aren't myopic enough to refuse to accept the temporary hurt.
* Disha's almost fanciful hopes are coming true, I have to admit. GoI now has full political clearance to push aggressive economic reforms. They're going to dominate both LS and RS plus Prez/Veep picks, all of it in the next few months itself. Reminds me of the southbound Tokaido Shinkansen pulling out of Yokohama station with no further stops until Nagoya 350kms away - clearance to turn speed gauge all the way up to 285-300km/h, blowing past Mt Fuji.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Yagnasri » 11 Mar 2017 12:09

Base rate is less that 9.7.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Rishirishi » 12 Mar 2017 04:55

Basically says two things. The situation in UP/Bihar/Eastern India is so tough, that these folks migrate all over the country to fill simply any job they can get, and that the locals in the rest of India have it far better in terms of jobs and livelihood that casual labour or any generic labour is not something that they get into at all anymore


If India manages to change the economy of UP and Bihar, entire Indian economy will be changed.
Some hopes arise with a clean Modi win in UP. If they manage to make UP the next Gujrat or TN, the effects will be felt in the entire country.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby kiranA » 12 Mar 2017 05:41

Deleted
Last edited by Suraj on 12 Mar 2017 06:15, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Yagnasri » 12 Mar 2017 07:21

Labour moves in places where it finds work. With greater connectivity, this is bound to happen. A nation of our size and population will have people looking for work and they move from place to place.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 12 Mar 2017 07:55

Labour is mobile; but so is crime.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 12 Mar 2017 21:22

Data point from cnn

While India is still seen as a developing nation, its size and speed of expansion underscore its massive importance to the global economy. According to the consulting group PwC, India accounts for about one-sixth of the world's GDP growth.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 12 Mar 2017 21:24

Chindia probably accounts for 50% of global growth if india alone is 17%

No wonder everyone who wants to sell anything will do anything incl subversion to get in. This includes snake oil experts, arms dealer dons and soul harvesters too.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby snahata » 12 Mar 2017 21:43

Looking at the history of india, India as a country will be always fall short until and unless UP and Bihar, the soul of India , the cradle of it,s civilization rises economically. Magadh must wake up and BJP,s win is huge in this state election.Hindustan ki train is about to go into top gear.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 13 Mar 2017 13:54

some details on Jio network::
Jio has on-boarded 100 Million 4G subscribers in a record span
of 6 months, which is approximately 7 subscribers per second
or 25,000 subscribers per hour. This has set a new bar for the
industry worldwide that underscores the company’s scale,
efficiency, and speed
• Within the same timeframe, Jio’s network traffic has surpassed US
mobile Internet traffic volume, and ten times the Internet capacity
of the world’s largest providers
• Jio has driven India’s monthly user data consumption to increase
40 times since service launch, resulting in the highest data
consumption per subscriber in the world
• Jio is delivering broadband services at the lowest cost per GB
globally

largest IP/MPLS deployment worldwide with a startup capacity
of ~1.5 Exabyte per month and build out of 150,000 Routers across
Access, Aggregation and CoreEnd-to-end Service Orchestration
capability to provide fully automated service life cycle management
capabilities, from self-service ordering, provisioning, billing,
monitoring and reporting, to service upgrades and modifications

• 185,000 miles (or 300,000 kilometers) of fiber optic cables

• One of the largest data centers in India and .. deployments in
APJC, with over 1 million sq ft of distributed data centers deployed in
the last 18 months

• 4G Multi channel video contact center, with 8K agents capacity

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 13 Mar 2017 13:56

the jio effect has led to data plans becoming more affordable by the other providers.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vina » 13 Mar 2017 14:01

snahata wrote:Looking at the history of india, India as a country will be always fall short until and unless UP and Bihar, the soul of India , the cradle of it,s civilization rises economically. Magadh must wake up and BJP,s win is huge in this state election.Hindustan ki train is about to go into top gear.


Lets get some statistics in place. The per capita income of Bihar is JUST Rs 36143 per ANNUM in 2014-15, while that of TN is Rs 135,806 per annum. Bihar's per capita GDP is roughly just a QUARTER of TN's per capita GDP. UP's is a third or TN's per capita GDP. Bengal's is just 60% of TN's GSDP per capital.

The top states by per capita GDP is Haryana, Uttarkhand,Kerala, TN, MH, KA, Telengana & Gujarat. Taking only large states and ignoring Kerala, due the remittance economy from the Gulf, if we consider the evenness of distribution of GDP across the state, TN will be streets ahead of MH, KA , TS and GJ due to the lumpy nature of economic activity in the other states (Mumbai-Pune-Nashik belt in MH, BLR and coastal KA in KA, HYD in TS and the Surat/Baroda/Ahmedabad axis in GJ).

WB has Kolkata. You take out Kolkata, the rest of WB is simply a "superfund" wasteland in terms of industry (okay Durgapur & Chittaranja aside).

Just closing the gap between UP, Bihar, & WB wrt to TN, KA, TS, MH and GJ will be massively accretive to both GDP and if that is closed wrt social indicators as well, India as a country will be a far far better place than it is today.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 13 Mar 2017 14:54

UP = 200 mil, Bihar = 100 mil, west bengal = 90 mil = nearly 400 mil. nearly 33% of our pop is in this belt.

infact UP has the 5th largest population in the world if it were a country.

this boat anchor needs to be pulled in for the ship to sail faster. there is headroom in these states for a 15% growth for a decade due to low base effect. after Nitish took over from Lalu , bihar enjoyed some high growth for a while but seems to be slowing again.

a fast growing gangetic belt will likely add maybe 3% to our overall figures.

western UP is actually quite industrialized but level of criminal activity and 'costs' of doing business high, coupled with political parties having control of police and all deals.


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