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Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

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snahata
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby snahata » 12 Mar 2017 21:43

Looking at the history of india, India as a country will be always fall short until and unless UP and Bihar, the soul of India , the cradle of it,s civilization rises economically. Magadh must wake up and BJP,s win is huge in this state election.Hindustan ki train is about to go into top gear.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 13 Mar 2017 13:54

some details on Jio network::
Jio has on-boarded 100 Million 4G subscribers in a record span
of 6 months, which is approximately 7 subscribers per second
or 25,000 subscribers per hour. This has set a new bar for the
industry worldwide that underscores the company’s scale,
efficiency, and speed
• Within the same timeframe, Jio’s network traffic has surpassed US
mobile Internet traffic volume, and ten times the Internet capacity
of the world’s largest providers
• Jio has driven India’s monthly user data consumption to increase
40 times since service launch, resulting in the highest data
consumption per subscriber in the world
• Jio is delivering broadband services at the lowest cost per GB
globally

largest IP/MPLS deployment worldwide with a startup capacity
of ~1.5 Exabyte per month and build out of 150,000 Routers across
Access, Aggregation and CoreEnd-to-end Service Orchestration
capability to provide fully automated service life cycle management
capabilities, from self-service ordering, provisioning, billing,
monitoring and reporting, to service upgrades and modifications

• 185,000 miles (or 300,000 kilometers) of fiber optic cables

• One of the largest data centers in India and .. deployments in
APJC, with over 1 million sq ft of distributed data centers deployed in
the last 18 months

• 4G Multi channel video contact center, with 8K agents capacity

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 13 Mar 2017 13:56

the jio effect has led to data plans becoming more affordable by the other providers.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vina » 13 Mar 2017 14:01

snahata wrote:Looking at the history of india, India as a country will be always fall short until and unless UP and Bihar, the soul of India , the cradle of it,s civilization rises economically. Magadh must wake up and BJP,s win is huge in this state election.Hindustan ki train is about to go into top gear.


Lets get some statistics in place. The per capita income of Bihar is JUST Rs 36143 per ANNUM in 2014-15, while that of TN is Rs 135,806 per annum. Bihar's per capita GDP is roughly just a QUARTER of TN's per capita GDP. UP's is a third or TN's per capita GDP. Bengal's is just 60% of TN's GSDP per capital.

The top states by per capita GDP is Haryana, Uttarkhand,Kerala, TN, MH, KA, Telengana & Gujarat. Taking only large states and ignoring Kerala, due the remittance economy from the Gulf, if we consider the evenness of distribution of GDP across the state, TN will be streets ahead of MH, KA , TS and GJ due to the lumpy nature of economic activity in the other states (Mumbai-Pune-Nashik belt in MH, BLR and coastal KA in KA, HYD in TS and the Surat/Baroda/Ahmedabad axis in GJ).

WB has Kolkata. You take out Kolkata, the rest of WB is simply a "superfund" wasteland in terms of industry (okay Durgapur & Chittaranja aside).

Just closing the gap between UP, Bihar, & WB wrt to TN, KA, TS, MH and GJ will be massively accretive to both GDP and if that is closed wrt social indicators as well, India as a country will be a far far better place than it is today.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 13 Mar 2017 14:54

UP = 200 mil, Bihar = 100 mil, west bengal = 90 mil = nearly 400 mil. nearly 33% of our pop is in this belt.

infact UP has the 5th largest population in the world if it were a country.

this boat anchor needs to be pulled in for the ship to sail faster. there is headroom in these states for a 15% growth for a decade due to low base effect. after Nitish took over from Lalu , bihar enjoyed some high growth for a while but seems to be slowing again.

a fast growing gangetic belt will likely add maybe 3% to our overall figures.

western UP is actually quite industrialized but level of criminal activity and 'costs' of doing business high, coupled with political parties having control of police and all deals.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 13 Mar 2017 14:57

tens of millions have fled these 3 states for decades now, so actual resident pop may be somewhat lower

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 13 Mar 2017 15:23

How is quality of Jio service?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Sridhar K » 13 Mar 2017 15:32

For a free service as of today, data is pretty good but voice sucks atleast in Chennai suburbs. I just use airtel prepaid for calls and jio for internet. Airtel postpaid is chortel for me.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Uttam » 13 Mar 2017 19:50

The international rating agencies are screwing up India. Here is some evidence of that...

Indian firms raising cheaper funds abroad
Indian companies, specifically banks, in international markets are raising money through bonds at a finer rate than many financial institutions from other countries rated superior to India are doing.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Austin » 13 Mar 2017 20:46

India's gold recycling plan fails to tempt households

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/eco ... 581302.ece
Mumbai, March 12:

India's ambitious plan to recycle thousands of tonnes of gold lying idle in temples and households looks to have foundered on concerns over high costs and slight returns, in a blow to the government's hopes of cutting imports of the metal.

After 16 months, temples and households have turned over just seven tonnes of gold out of the 24,000 tonnes believed to be in private hands, two industry sources and a government official said, with almost all the gold coming from temples.

Families that hold about 80 per cent of the idle gold have largely shunned the scheme, with some four dozen government-approved centres that opened to test purity still to process a single gram of household gold, said Harshad Ajmera, president of the Indian Association of Hallmarking Centres.

“You hardly earn anything but you have to do so many things to deposit gold under the scheme. Why should I take all this pain?” said 54-year-old clerk Ganpat Shelke, who considered depositing 50 grams of gold.

The struggling scheme was launched with much fanfare by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in November 2015, with India seeking ways to stem the spending of billions of dollars on a non-essential commodity that accounted for 27 per cent of its trade deficit in the year to March, 2016.

The country is the world's second-biggest gold importer behind China, buying about 800 tonnes a year for wedding gifts, religious donations and as an investment.

The plan was for holders of idle gold to lodge it with banks in return for interest and cash at redemption. The government would melt the gold and auction or rent it to jewellers, reducing the need for imports.

But the scheme logistics mean the owners of the gold must shoulder the cost of testing its purity and melting it down, while the interest rate on offer of just 2.5 per cent compares with 7-8 per cent that banks offer for cash deposit rates.

“If a consumer wants to have 25 grams jewellery converted the cost of converting and purity testing takes 3-4 per cent of total value away,” said Shekhar Bhandari, executive vice-president of Kotak Mahindra Bank.

Reluctant banks

Even when holders of the precious metal want to take part in the scheme they have run into hurdles.

“I visited four banks several times to deposit gold but they could not accept it,” said Kushal Chatterjee, a businessmen from the eastern city of Kolkata. “They said they did not know the process.”

At least five bank branches visited by Reuters this week in Mumbai said they could not accept gold under the scheme as they had not been given directions by their head offices.

A senior official with the Indian Banks' Association said the current scheme offered banks little or no profit.
×

“There should be an incentive for banks,” said the official, who declined to be named when commenting on a sensitive issue.

Banks are also concerned that provisions allowing gold to be deposited for up to 15 years will raise currency and liquidity risks, the India Gold Policy Centre in a recent report.

A finance ministry spokesperson declined to comment on the gold programme.

Gold refiners, who more than doubled capacity in recent years in anticipation of higher scrap supplies, are operating at well below capacity, said James Jose, secretary of the Association of Gold Refineries and Mints.

“Except for the banks, all other stakeholders like purity centres, refiners are ready, but they are helpless without banks' participation,” he said.

The India Bullion and Jewellers Association urged the government to revisit the scheme, clearing doubts for consumers and putting pressure on banks to participate.

“Otherwise Indian imports will not fall,” said Association secretary Surendra Mehta.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 14 Mar 2017 10:59

gold and electronic imports need to be solved if the -ve import:export balance is to be ever fixed. gold is based on sentiment and electronics is based on failure of congis to push it along. now we import some $200b of elec/EE goods annually I believe from you know where mostly.

third leg of import triad:
energy efficiency is increasing across the board due to better engines, LED , better tech in power plants, better distribution etc. this is normal for a rapidly developing country.

fourth leg of import cheetah: defence - let me not rant on it here

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby hanumadu » 14 Mar 2017 11:02

^^Palm oil is another major import. What came of plans to grow them in India?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Marten » 14 Mar 2017 11:09

Setting up electronics manufacturing requires a couple of decades of preparation. The plants might move but we do not have enough qualified and trained folks at the ITI level. PRC makes do with cheap illiterate labour but our laws thankfully mandate humane treatment. Our best bet is to hope that the Koreans overtake the Chinese and decide to invest in India along with the Japanese.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 14 Mar 2017 20:20

There are mainly two types of gold holdings in India. Household and illegal hoarding. Household gold is both an insurance and family legacy. Illegal gold hoarded if deposited will lead to criminal investigations. So the scheme will have limited success.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 14 Mar 2017 21:48

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... of-the-fed
India's Sliding Bond Risk Shows Asia Is a Haven From the Fed

Credit-default swaps on the bonds of every Asian emerging market except for South Korea have tumbled this year, outperforming debt risk for the U.K. and for France, which has jumped amid the presidential election campaign. Inflows into developing Asian bond markets have also swelled in 2017 as investors bet the world’s fastest-growing region will be able to better withstand the volatility and outflows unleashed by a tightening Federal Reserve.
...
Offshore investors have poured more than $13 billion into the debt markets of India, Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea in 2017, even as the yield advantage of baht-denominated debt over the U.S. was reduced by about two thirds since September.
....
The popularity of emerging Asian notes can also be seen in inflows, with overseas investors buying $577 million of Indian bonds in 2017, the most since 2015. The South Asian nation’s debt risk, as measured by five-year CDS, touched a record low in March.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Uttam » 14 Mar 2017 22:43

A_Gupta wrote:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-13/sliding-asian-bond-risk-shows-region-a-haven-in-face-of-the-fed
India's Sliding Bond Risk Shows Asia Is a Haven From the Fed

The popularity of emerging Asian notes can also be seen in inflows, with overseas investors buying $577 million of Indian bonds in 2017, the most since 2015. The South Asian nation’s debt risk, as measured by five-year CDS, touched a record low in March.



Another evidence that there is bias in credit ratings. And this bias is against India.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Yagnasri » 15 Mar 2017 07:07

The Municipal Bond market is going to be a big one now. There was a meeting with SEBI in this regard and many cities like Pune are going to come up with the bonds. We can expect good investments in urban infrastructure soon.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 15 Mar 2017 07:19

A strong muni bond market has a direct relationship with the quality of urban infrastructure. Rather than cities depending upon the state (and thereby center) for a share of tax proceeds which the state will usually prioritize towards the hinterland for political reasons, bonds as a source of funding lets cities build infrastructure without such a need. Further, the existence of the bonds forces them to prioritize timely completion of civic works within budget, because the any delay or default hurts them financially.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 15 Mar 2017 07:45

What are an Indian city corporation's sources of revenue?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 15 Mar 2017 07:56

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... arged-modi
A Mountain of Bad Debt Looms Over Modi

Now that Modi’s party has padded his political capital with a win in the Uttar Pradesh state election, the government is "more likely to tackle the pressing issue of non-performing loans," said Jan Zalewski, a senior Asia analyst at global risk firm Verisk Maplecroft. Policy makers know a bank clean-up is critical to kick-start investment, but have "not had the political courage yet to push on this front," he wrote.

Years after India’s non-performing loans started to surge, officials are still trying to come up with a solution. Top government advisers, including Arvind Subramanian, has called for a state-run fund manager to deal with soured loans by buying them from banks and working them out through swaps for equity, stake sales or write-offs -- much as China’s units did. A newly appointed Reserve Bank of India deputy governor, Viral Acharya, has also endorsed the idea of a national asset manager to take over unviable assets.

Fitch Ratings Ltd. puts India’s recapitalization burden at $90 billion by 2019, while the government has committed only $10 billion in fiscal resources.
...
...
“One key challenge is Indian banks are not ready to take big haircuts on their loans because they haven’t built enough provision for it,” said Alka Anbarasu, a senior analyst at the financial institutions group at Moody’s Investors Service in Singapore. “But if India wants to grow, banks will need to fix their balance sheets.”

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby nandakumar » 15 Mar 2017 08:05

A_Gupta wrote:What are an Indian city corporation's sources of revenue?

In Maharashtra it is Octroi (entry tax) but elsewhere it is property tax. But mostly it is handouts from the States and more recently devolution from the Centre.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 15 Mar 2017 13:23

GST is currently slated to go live in July.
Council meeting to pave way for introduction of GST Bill in Parliament, assemblies
The GST Council meeting on Thursday is crucial for the Bills on the new indirect tax regime coming up in the ongoing Budget session of Parliament. If state assemblies also pass their respective GST Bills in time, the new indirect taxation regime could be introduced from July with April deadline almost missed.

The meeting will take up the state GST (SGST) Bill and union territory GST (UTGST) Bill, having approved all the other Bills in the previous meetings.

The draft SGST and UTGST Bills will be more or less replica of the draft Central GST (CGST) Bills that was passed by the Council earlier this month. However, according to some state finance ministers, the council meeting may once again take a final look at CGST Bill, besides Integrated GST legislation.

Centre to develop logistics parks in 35 clusters
As many as 35 clusters, accounting for half the total freight movement, have been identified for building logistics parks to improve the existing transportation and warehousing scenario in the country.

Of the total number of proposed logistics parks, 15 would be developed across states including Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.

The proposed parks would reduce transportation cost by 10 per cent for the industries in the 35 clusters, thereby enabling freight movement on higher sized trucks and rail, Minister of Road Transport, Highways and Shipping Nitin Gadkari told Business Standard.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Yagnasri » 15 Mar 2017 13:50

nandakumar wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:What are an Indian city corporation's sources of revenue?

In Maharashtra it is Octroi (entry tax) but elsewhere it is a property tax. But mostly it is handouts from the States and more recently devolution from the Centre.


Entertainment tax is also there. As per the Constitution, a portion of the revenue coming to the respective state shall be passed on to the local administration. In some places the also take land conversion fee etc. They build shops etc. on the municipal properties and take rents. In most of the states, the salaries of the municipals staff also paid by the state Gov.

SEBI issued separate guidelines for Municipal Bonds, and they are already in force. Yours truly will be involved that as and when some of the Municipal Corporations go for them. As of today, they are issuing Bonds which are in the same nature of Debentures. But the SEBI and even GOI are keen to develop bond market now.

So interesting times ahead.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby hanumadu » 15 Mar 2017 14:01

http://indiareforms.csis.org/

Pundits sometimes act as if “economic reforms” are a light switch that India’s central government can turn on and off. In reality, the process of reforming the economy is nuanced, involving a diverse set of issues and actors. The following scorecard is a list of thirty big reforms that the Modi government confronted when it took office, and the status of each. Such a list can never be absolutely definitive, and we welcome the feedback of others. We hope this list helps the public understand the choices that are on the table, and that each reform will move at an independent pace. This scorecard will be updated on a monthly basis as we see tangible progress on individual reforms.



Scroll down and page has 30 info boards on the reform and their status.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby tandav » 15 Mar 2017 14:14

Harassment of Entrepreneurs by connected goons has become a new way of shaking down productive sections of the economy. Here we find the founders of a popular startup Stayzilla being harassed with threats to life and threats of arrests via "purportedly" false cases.

https://medium.com/@4091/help-i-need-everybody-52d0adcb1f09#.6pmvbchi8

Caveat : There are issues such as non payment of rent etc that is being bandied about but the from a legal perspective it appears the police and legal system has completely failed. and people are resorting to threats and other unsavory methods to get paid. If this is the case then there is a huge negative in starting up companies by young entrepreneurs.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Vikas » 15 Mar 2017 14:20

Unbelievable that someone can be arrested and thrown behind bars in this brazen manner.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 16 Mar 2017 17:48

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... dian-bonds
"States on Borrowing Binge Bad News for Modi and Indian Bonds"
Working together, India’s 29 states combined would form a bloc that has a bigger economy than the whole of sub-Saharan Africa, more members than the European Union, and twice the population of North America. Net borrowing by states will rise 12 percent to 3.8 trillion rupees ($58 billion) in the next financial year, after an estimated 30 percent-surge to 3.4 trillion in the fiscal year ending this March 31, according to ICRA Ltd. Modi plans to borrow a net 4.2 trillion rupees in the coming year.

“The disproportionate market focus on central finances masks the fact that India’s fiscal centre-of-gravity has rapidly moved from the center to the states,” Sajjid Chinoy and Toshi Jain, economists at JPMorgan Chase, wrote in the report. Borrowing by states is poised to overtake the centre’s by 2018-19, they said.

Why are the states borrowing so much? Revenue losses suffered on account of Modi’s shock currency recall in November and higher wages for staff have strained their finances, according to ICRA, the local unit of Moody’s Investors Service.

“The consolidation of recent years seem to be coming apart,” said Aditi Nayar, principal economist at ICRA in Gurgaon. “Servicing of debt related to the power sector-restructuring” is another factor contributing to the worsening state finances.

Borrowing costs reflect the stress. States sold 10-year debt at an average cut-off yield of 7.89 percent at an auction Tuesday, versus 7.15 percent at the Jan. 10 sale. Similar-maturity sovereign bonds paid 6.78 percent in Mumbai Thursday, indicating that the yield spread has widened to more than 100 basis points. The historical mean is 40-50 basis points, according to JPMorgan.

That’s an impending challenge for Modi even as he celebrates his party’s resounding victories in just-concluded state elections, including in Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 16 Mar 2017 22:55

X-post

NFHS-4 (2015-2016) data released. TFR of India now at 2.2 (replacement level 2.1) All laggards have shown progress and are now almost near 2.1. That includes RJ, MP, CH. UP has shown impressive improvement at 2.7, JH moderate but still high. Bihar has shown the worst result and has the highest TFR still at 3.4. Literacy rates up everywhere. should cross 80% in 2021 census. IMR and MMR down everywhere. Institutional delivery up everywhere and dramatic improvement in rural areas. Female literacy up by at least 10% everywhere.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Karthik S » 16 Mar 2017 23:13

I believe we must take weighted average for TFR to get more accurate picture.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 16 Mar 2017 23:18

It is just a sample but tells you that except UP, BH, JH all other states have more or less stabilized. What is more important is that RJ, CH, MP are coming out of BIMARU HDI status. The other thing I missed is that under-age marriage has declined in northern India from 50% to under 25%.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 16 Mar 2017 23:20

Also religion based data has not been released. That will tell you more things.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 17 Mar 2017 01:10

Supratik wrote:X-post

NFHS-4 (2015-2016) data released. TFR of India now at 2.2 (replacement level 2.1) All laggards have shown progress and are now almost near 2.1. That includes RJ, MP, CH. UP has shown impressive improvement at 2.7, JH moderate but still high. Bihar has shown the worst result and has the highest TFR still at 3.4. Literacy rates up everywhere. should cross 80% in 2021 census. IMR and MMR down everywhere. Institutional delivery up everywhere and dramatic improvement in rural areas. Female literacy up by at least 10% everywhere.

Thank you for this post. Could you also please post the actual reference material when you can ?


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 17 Mar 2017 01:44

Supratik wrote:X-post
NFHS-4 (2015-2016) data released. TFR of India now at 2.2 (replacement level 2.1)


Replacement fertility rate depends on the mortality rate - 2.1 TFR as the replacement level is an approximation.

Replacement fertility is the total fertility rate at which women give birth to enough babies to sustain population levels.

If there were no mortality in the female population until the end of the childbearing years (generally taken as 44, 45, or 49, though some exceptions exist) then the replacement level of TFR would be very close to 2.0. The replacement fertility rate is roughly 2.0 births per woman for most industrialized countries (2.075 in the UK, for example), but ranges from 2.5 to 3.3 in developing countries because of higher mortality rates.[6] Taken globally, the total fertility rate at replacement is 2.33 children per woman. At this rate, global population growth would tend towards zero.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fer ... ment_rates

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 17 Mar 2017 03:04

The United Nations population projections have "low", "medium" and "high" variants. In the medium variant projection made in 2015, India's total fertility rate (TFR) 2015-2020 is 2.34, which NFHS-4 shows is already too high. The low variant projection has the TFR at 2.09. India could possibly match the low variant. The low variant projects India's 2021 population as 1.387 billion; the medium variant has it as 1.404 billion. (The difference, 17 million, is roughly one current Netherlands.) These are the lower and upper bounds on the 2021 census, favoring the lower bound.

India's 2050 population by the low variant is 1.509 billion, by the medium variant 1.705 billion; the difference is about one current Pakistan.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 17 Mar 2017 05:54

Not only are we likely to fall below 2.09 TFR by 2020, but the trend downwards is accelerating, considering we're falling near the bottom end of the low estimate and with 4 years of additional data to bridge the gap between 2.2 and 2.09 . That's a pretty impressive performance.

Overall the urban numbers are quite heartening, and I suspect even the rural numbers would look much better without UP+Bihar data. At the uppermost end, Kerala IMR/5MR data rivals the first world now, at 6/1000, about the same as USA, with a TFR of 1.6.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby hanumadu » 17 Mar 2017 06:15

So why will our population continue to grow to 150 cr or 175 cr even after we achieved replacement TFR.

Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 17 Mar 2017 07:05

hanumadu wrote:So why will our population continue to grow to 150 cr or 175 cr even after we achieved replacement TFR.

Because the older end of the population doesn't die out sooner than the young begin to procreate as a result of both rising life expectancy and falling fertility rate. The population is essentially guaranteed to stabilize and go down now, but it depends on when that happens. Based on the above data, it seems we'll barely catch up with PRC because TFR's falling much faster than estimates suggested.

At the current rate, I don't think we'll even make it to 1.5 billion, especially if TFR in UP/BH drop like a rock. UP TFR in NFHS-3 (2005-06) was 3.8, but is 2.7 now. Bihar is the worst at 3.4, but down from 4.0 . WB is already sub replacement at 1.8 . All of south India is sub-replacement now, at 1.6-1.8 , as is Maharashtra. MP is at 2.3, almost there, same as Rajasthan. Only UP and Bihar exceed 2.5 now among major states, and even so, they've both dropped by almost 1 full person in terms of replacement rate, in the past decade.

By 2020, we'd probably have nationwide 1.9-2.0 TFR (slightly below replacement), ~20/1000 IMR, literacy ~85% and life expectancy >70.

Supratik
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 17 Mar 2017 09:43

It is called population momentum. So there will be some tapering off. If UP, BH, JH drops to near 2.1 by 2025 we will stabilize within 1.6 billion.
KL can now be called advanced country standard based on HDI and HP and SK are almost there.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Sicanta » 17 Mar 2017 11:02

Foreigners outlook

Can Uttar Pradesh now really become India’s Uttam Pradesh?

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 678788.cms


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