Bharat Rakshak Forum Announcement

Hello Everyone,

A warm welcome back to the Bharat Rakshak Forum.

Important Notice: Due to a corruption in the BR forum database we regret to announce that data records relating to some of our registered users have been lost. We estimate approx. 500 user details are deleted.

To ease the process of recreating the user IDs we request members that have previously posted on the BR forums to recognise and identify their posts, once the posts are identified please contact the BRF moderator team by emailing BRF Mod Team with your post details.

The mod team will be able to update your username, email etc. so that the user history can be maintained.

Unfortunately for members that have never posted or have had all their posts deleted i.e. users that have 0 posts, we will be unable to recreate your account hence we request that you re-register again.

We apologise for any inconvenience caused and thank you for your understanding.

Regards,
Seetal

Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 18951
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Austin » 03 Dec 2016 12:16

India Ratings Lowers GDP Forecast To 6.8% Post Demonetisation

http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/art ... on-1633471
Last edited by Austin on 03 Dec 2016 12:24, edited 1 time in total.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 18951
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Austin » 03 Dec 2016 12:21

Rs. 2.5 Lakh Crore Of Banned Notes May Not Be Deposited, Says SBI

http://profit.ndtv.com/news/your-money/ ... em-1633296
Mumbai: State Bank of India has estimated that money worth Rs. 2.5 lakh crore may not come back into the banking system post demonetisation of high-value notes. On November 8, the government banned bank notes of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000 worth over Rs. 14 lakh crore from the economy.

In a report, the Economic Research Department of State Bank of India (SBI) said "around Rs. 2.5 lakh crore on a conservative basis will not be coming back into the system".

As per the SBI analysis, the market estimate of Rs. 14.18 lakh crore currency -- excluding cash with banks -- is based on March 2016 data while in reality it should be based on data available as on November 9, a day after demonetisation was announced.


SBI noted that going by data as on November 9, the amount of high currency denomination notes was Rs. 15.44 lakh crore (excluding cash in the banks), an increase of Rs. 1.26 lakh crore compared to the March figure.

It stated that RBI has published twice the deposited and exchanged notes data with banks in November with a gap of 9-days. SBI said: "If we closely look at the data, the daily working day average deposited/exchanged at banks has declined significantly from Rs. 605 billion (November 10-18) to Rs. 501 billion (November 19-27) -- a decline of 17 per cent." In total, between November 10-27, Rs. 8.44 lakh crore were deposited and exchanged in banks, the report said.

"All these estimates put together show that total money coming into the system in the form of high denomination will be around Rs. 13 lakh crore (as against Rs. 15.44 lakh crore high value notes as on November 9)," it added.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 590
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Gyan » 03 Dec 2016 22:08

As per Rediff report around Rs. 13 lakh crore are already back as on today evening.

ssundar
BRFite
Posts: 548
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 02:33

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby ssundar » 03 Dec 2016 22:55

Austin wrote:Rs. 2.5 Lakh Crore Of Banned Notes May Not Be Deposited, Says SBI

http://profit.ndtv.com/news/your-money/ ... em-1633296


If my math is right, that is about $37 billion, right? Budget 2016 allocated approximately $33 billion for roads, rails and other infrastructure. Total housing and poverty alleviation budget was $800 million.

If this number is true, it can be turned into a huge bonanza for housing or infrastructure. Will dwarf the "poverty alleviation" spending of MGNREGA.

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3633
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby hanumadu » 03 Dec 2016 23:54

Picklu wrote:On a serious note, Gold and RE can not be left out of the dragnet in the war against black money. That would defeat the purpose completely.

Anything that allows to store value must be accounted for against aadhar & PAN just like cash and bank accounts. This should include all financial instruments like loans, credit card, tax, utility, hotel & medical bill payments as well as others like rail and flight tickets, vehicles, foreign currency/vacation/education/property etc.

Already there is news that iphone had bumper sells post 8th nov. You can be sure that they have been used to launder BM.


Picklu, perhaps you are joining the discussion late. All these have been discussed before in the DeMo thread which is the right place for this stuff. Buying gold, iphones wont scale up. Relatively small amounts of BM can be laundered that way.
As for benami properties, Modi already told that he is going to go after them next. Just get some popcorn, relax and watch the fun.

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2902
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Karthik S » 04 Dec 2016 00:08

ssundar wrote:
Austin wrote:Rs. 2.5 Lakh Crore Of Banned Notes May Not Be Deposited, Says SBI

http://profit.ndtv.com/news/your-money/ ... em-1633296


If my math is right, that is about $37 billion, right? Budget 2016 allocated approximately $33 billion for roads, rails and other infrastructure. Total housing and poverty alleviation budget was $800 million.

If this number is true, it can be turned into a huge bonanza for housing or infrastructure. Will dwarf the "poverty alleviation" spending of MGNREGA.



So that's $37 billion revenue to the companies who undertake those infrastructure contracts, providing employment, salaries, taxes to the government.

Picklu
BRFite
Posts: 1589
Joined: 25 Feb 2004 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Picklu » 04 Dec 2016 00:16

hanumadu wrote:
Picklu wrote:On a serious note, Gold and RE can not be left out of the dragnet in the war against black money. That would defeat the purpose completely.

Anything that allows to store value must be accounted for against aadhar & PAN just like cash and bank accounts. This should include all financial instruments like loans, credit card, tax, utility, hotel & medical bill payments as well as others like rail and flight tickets, vehicles, foreign currency/vacation/education/property etc.

Already there is news that iphone had bumper sells post 8th nov. You can be sure that they have been used to launder BM.


Picklu, perhaps you are joining the discussion late. All these have been discussed before in the DeMo thread which is the right place for this stuff. Buying gold, iphones wont scale up. Relatively small amounts of BM can be laundered that way.
As for benami properties, Modi already told that he is going to go after them next. Just get some popcorn, relax and watch the fun.


You are preaching to the coir bro.
The reason for a serious note was the tongue in cheek post before.
And the serious note were made in reply to the post by Austin just before the tongue in cheek post :)

Yogi_G
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2387
Joined: 21 Nov 2008 04:10
Location: Punya Bhoomi -- Jambu Dweepam

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Yogi_G » 04 Dec 2016 16:55

N00b economy question.

Will 2.5 lakh crore amount not being returned reduce inflation to a minor extent (a la increasing the reverse repo rate by RBI)?

snahata
BRFite
Posts: 511
Joined: 25 Dec 2008 22:19

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby snahata » 05 Dec 2016 00:14

Question Suraj, after the recent demonitization scheme close to 37 billion dollars worth of notes were not deposited. So basically that currency is worthless now. Can the Reserve bank of India print this much money without causing any inflation as the money supply remains constant and the govt can use this money for infrastructure development. Your opinion.

disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 5870
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby disha » 05 Dec 2016 00:27

Yogi_G wrote:N00b economy question.

Will 2.5 lakh crore amount not being returned reduce inflation to a minor extent (a la increasing the reverse repo rate by RBI)?


I think:

It will induce deflation to a minor extent. Housing price goes down with a concomitant decrease in living expenses. This has a net effect of easing back inflation.

Initially it will be mildly deflationary and if proper execution of GST and other structural changes to control unaccounted money follows., one will end up in a mild-inflationary (good) and high growth (better) economy. It is called the goldilocks economy.

If India reaches goldilocks and growth picks up in US as well (which will be another semi-goldilocks stage) and stays there for another 8-10 years., the entire world geo-eco-political equation will change. There are lots of ifs and buts before that can happen., but there is a distinct probability that it will happen.

On the contrary., US may fall into stagflation and the Euro goes into decline/depression again without any wherewithal to finance new growth. Japan is in a state of funk and China may as well teeter around the precipice. This will make investment come into India in torrents and may end up stoking inflation. Again if it comes into infrastructure (energy/transport) then the outlook of growth/inflation changes. But if it comes as FIIs then it will stoke inflation without any growth.

Infrastructure is one bottleneck., there are other bottlenecks in the Indian economy - the biggest is the bureaucracy and the taxation bottleneck. Take for example the spread of gold prices within India. Gold in Kerala is cheaper than in Guj/Raj. One can actually buy gold in Kilos from Kerala, transport it to Gujarat/Rajasthan and make money on the spread of 4-5%. Even a spread of 2% will sustain such a trade. But the question is why there is such a spread of 4-5%? Transportation and more importantly taxation. Introduction of GST should bring down the bureaucratic (and tax) bottleneck.

Now easing bureaucratic and tax bottlenecks is also a war on unaccounted money. And this where the states are trying to stall., since the political-bureaucratic nexus will lose a substantial chunk of unaccounted money.

disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 5870
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby disha » 05 Dec 2016 00:42

snahata wrote:Question Suraj, after the recent demonitization scheme close to 37 billion dollars worth of notes were not deposited. So basically that currency is worthless now. Can the Reserve bank of India print this much money without causing any inflation as the money supply remains constant and the govt can use this money for infrastructure development. Your opinion.


Apologies to step in., but I think we can answer this question ourselves.

RBI is basically a banker to government (both central and state government)., in a extremely simple view - the GOI issues 'surety bonds' to RBI as assets and RBI issues 'money' to the GOI to spend.

Think of a case that GOI issued 100 Rs. bond to RBI and RBI 'gives' 100 Rs. to GOI. Now the 100Rs. is out standing as various assets of GOI and some in currency. Let us say GOI with demonetization has accounted for all the money. The worthless currency can be deemed as destroyed., some notes are outstanding with the people and the rest is accounted in various bank deposits.

Assume that 15Rs of outstanding 100Rs. is the currency that did not come back and hence can be deemed as destroyed. Note that the currency in circulation is destroyed but not the debt owed to RBI by Govt. Hence with this accounting exercise., the books are now clear and the GOI finds that it has borrowed 100Rs. but has used only 85 Rs. for managing its house. It still has 15Rs of 'credit' with it.

Of course, GOI can print more currency and introduce it in the system., but this will cause inflation. Instead GOI can announce multiple schemes - like building new energy generation capacity or infrastructure or better health care etc. It does not have to take on 'new' debt from RBI for any of its schemes. Hence GOI does not have to issue new bonds and pay higher rate for debt (since there is no new debt)., as such its interest burden comes down and it makes more 'credit' available for GOI to spend.

In a nutshell., the debt burden of GOI has come down by $37 B.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10593
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 05 Dec 2016 00:44

Sure they can, but they have no reason to do so.

Disha's explanation covers it all :)

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 18951
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Austin » 08 Dec 2016 15:28

December 8, 2016

Credit Policy Review - December 2016 [ HDFC ]

In an unexpected move the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted in favor of keeping policy repo rate unchanged at 6.25%. RBI also left the cash reserve ratio (CRR) unchanged at 4%, and announced that the incremental CRR of 100% will stand withdrawn from 10th December 2016.

As per RBI the outlook for gross value added (GVA) growth for FY17 had turned uncertain as the impact of withdrawal of specified bank notes (SBNs) was still playing out. Incorporating the expected loss of growth momentum in third and fourth quarters of FY17, GVA growth has been revised down from 7.6% to 7.1% for FY17.

The withdrawal of SBNs could result in a possible temporary reduction in inflation of the order of 10-15 bps in the third quarter. However, prices of essentials (housing, fuel, health etc.), accounting for 38% of the CPI basket, may remain largely unaffected. Thus RBI has retained its projection of headline inflation at 5% for the fourth quarter of 2016-17 with risks tilted to the upside but lower than the previous policy review.

Given the backdrop of heightened uncertainty, the currency replacement exercise may drag down growth in this fiscal year. However, as per RBI “it is important to analyze more information and experience before judging their full effects and persistence”.

On inflation outlook, RBI felt it is appropriate “to look through the transitory but unclear effects of the withdrawal of SBNs while setting the monetary policy stance”. RBI found it “prudent to wait and watch how these factors play out and impinge upon the outlook”. Thus the policy repo rate was kept on hold while retaining the accommodative policy stance.


Conclusion and Outlook


As against consensus expectations of 25bps rate cut, the MPC in its credit policy review today surprised the markets by keeping policy repo rate unchanged. Given that the ten year benchmark government bond yield over the last one month had moved down by almost 60 bps to a low of 6.20%, post policy review there was a sharp reversal in bond yield of more than 20 bps to 6.41%

In our opinion despite this unexpected move of keeping the policy repo rate unchanged, there is still a downside bias to bond yields because of additional space with RBI for rate cuts, high real yields and adequate spread between Indian and US bond yields.

In line with the above, our recommendation to investors would be to remain invested in duration funds.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 18951
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Austin » 08 Dec 2016 16:45


Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 18951
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Austin » 08 Dec 2016 16:46

Can some one tell me what is recent Public Debt to GDP ratio/percentage for India , Trading Economic shows 65 % etc but I dont think that is accurate , Thanks


rohiths
BRFite
Posts: 385
Joined: 26 Jun 2009 21:51

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby rohiths » 10 Dec 2016 11:14

Austin wrote:Can some one tell me what is recent Public Debt to GDP ratio/percentage for India , Trading Economic shows 65 % etc but I dont think that is accurate , Thanks

It is accurate but that is state + central govts put together

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8844
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby pankajs » 10 Dec 2016 14:39

Austin wrote:not sure what she is trying to say but

Money abroad can be brought to India through government bonds

The main thrust is .... "those with cash offshore be permitted to purchase zero-return bonds with a minimum lock-in period (say, five years) for funds repatriated from abroad, no questions asked."

Folks get to bring money into India without fearing state action while India/GOI/Banking system get a leg up.

Her comparison to the US situation is not appropriate.
1. US Corp. Income earned and held abroad is accounted for, at least the portion in focus, but the Indian money held abroad is *mostly* unaccounted income (tax dodge, bribe, crime money).
2. Apart from "no questions asked" benefit the returning money will get no other benefit. They can earn some return by parking it even in US securities and get dollar/rupee exchange rate benefits.
3. OTOH, the person will get himself identified as a tax dodger/bribe taker/criminal even when offered "no questions asked". That will put him/her on the GOI radar for future enforcement action.

IMHO not workable in general. Will work only for those who are past their earning period and hence at zero risk.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9582
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 10 Dec 2016 19:40

"Let’s Do The Right Thing For The Economy; Growth Will Take Care Of Itself"
http://swarajyamag.com/economy/lets-do- ... -of-itself

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3633
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby hanumadu » 13 Dec 2016 11:28

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/55949472.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

What does this mean in English?

The flood of liquidity would result in lower rates and that should lead to gains in banks’ bond portfolios running into lakhs of crores of rupees. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. "There was 100,000 crore profit that happened in the last quarter with treasuries moving down by around 70 basis points," said Kamath. "We are talking of a number that I have not seen before in my career. That should once and for all put an end to the question of where will the capital required to recapitalise banks come from.

The answer — it comes from within due to this salutary impact in the system." Going forward, profits due to treasury gains could be as much as Rs 1.5 lakh crore.


Yagnasri
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8813
Joined: 29 May 2007 18:03

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Yagnasri » 13 Dec 2016 11:43

http://swarajyamag.com/economy/not-just ... income-tax

http://swarajyamag.com/economy/indian-e ... ndividuals

As per one rumour either GOI is going to do away with IT which is unlikely. Maybe it is going to give massive relief to people,

sanjayc
BRFite
Posts: 203
Joined: 22 Aug 2016 21:40

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby sanjayc » 13 Dec 2016 12:28

I think personal income tax should be abolished but income tax on businesses should remain. This will not harm revenues much, and will give massive relief to the middle class.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10593
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 13 Dec 2016 13:56

hanumadu wrote:http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/55949472.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

What does this mean in English?

The flood of liquidity would result in lower rates and that should lead to gains in banks’ bond portfolios running into lakhs of crores of rupees. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. "There was 100,000 crore profit that happened in the last quarter with treasuries moving down by around 70 basis points," said Kamath. "We are talking of a number that I have not seen before in my career. That should once and for all put an end to the question of where will the capital required to recapitalise banks come from.

The answer — it comes from within due to this salutary impact in the system." Going forward, profits due to treasury gains could be as much as Rs 1.5 lakh crore.


Bond prices and interest rates are inversely related . When rates rise, bond prices fall and vice versa. Even the threat of a rate hike sends bond prices down. Banks hold significant quantities of bonds of all kinds, from government bonds (they are required by law to keep ~25% of their deposit base in govt bonds - called the Statutory Liquidity Ratio). Therefore the cost of capital to the normal borrower for a fixed amount of deposits depends on the SLR. What happens when the amount of deposits rises dramatically, maybe even doubling the bank's deposit base ? The implied cost of capital falls. Demonetization caused the GoI 10 year bond yields (i.'e. their implied rates based on their market price) to drop like a rock, in other words their prices rose.

What Kamath is saying is that banks are already sitting on a large corpus of bond holdings, all of which have risen dramatically in value as their implied interest rates fall. The increase in value itself is so significant (what he refers as the never before seen numbers) that this increase itself might be enough for the banks to recapitalize themselves, largely or solely on account of just the gains they made out of the rise in the prices of the bonds they were holding.

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3633
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby hanumadu » 13 Dec 2016 15:45

Thanks Suraj. I'll do some further reading.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10593
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 17 Dec 2016 04:05

And Forbes calls it. My bet was that we'd overtake them in 2016-17, and for a time it seemed I was hasty, but Brexit helped:
India Surpasses Great Britain In Absolute GDP Terms
As Theresa May returned home from her unsuccessful visit to India, she would bear witness to another relegation for the UK: India’s economy will be larger than the UK’s, for the first time in more than 100 years. This dramatic shift has been driven by India’s rapid economic growth over the past 25 years as well as Britain's recent woes, particularly with the Brexit. Once expected to overtake the UK GDP in 2020, the surpasso has been accelerated by the nearly 20% decline in the value of the pound over the last 12 months, consequently UK’s 2016 GDP of GBP 1.87 trillion converts to $2.29 trillion at exchange rate of ~GBP 0.81 per $1, whereas India’s GDP of INR 153 trillion converts to $2.30 trillion at exchange rate of ~INR 66.6 per $1. Furthermore, this gap is expected to widen as India grows at 6 to 8% p.a. compared to UK’s growth of 1 to 2% p.a. until 2020, and likely beyond. Even if the currencies fluctuate that modify these figures to rough equality, the verdict is clear that India’s economy has surpassed that of the UK based on future growth prospects.

For a more complete picture, 2016 PPP GDPs (IMF WEO stats):
India $8.72 trillion
UK $2.78 trillion

rahulm
BRFite
Posts: 1116
Joined: 19 Jun 2000 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby rahulm » 17 Dec 2016 15:47

GST implementation time lines may be changed

GST can be rolled out anytime between April 1-Sept 16: Arun Jaitley

g.sarkar
BRFite
Posts: 1187
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby g.sarkar » 17 Dec 2016 23:37

http://swarajyamag.com/insta/for-the-fi ... ed-kingdom
For The First Time In Over 100 Years, India’s Economy Surpasses That Of United Kingdom
Rapid growth in India over the past 25 years and decline in the United kingdom (UK) following the Brexit vote has resulted in India surpassing UK’s economy.
At current exchange rates (16 December), UK’s 2016 GDP of GBP 1.87 trillion converts to $2.29 trillion, whereas India’s GDP of Rs 153 trillion converts to $2.30 trillion.
....
As the Indian economy continues to grow at 7 to 8 per cent per annum, compared to UK’s growth rate of 1 to 2 per cent, the gap is expected to widen. India’s per capita GDP still remains less than one-fifth that of the UK.

Gautam

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9582
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 20 Dec 2016 04:46

http://www.financialexpress.com/economy ... -4/478535/
Demonetisation: Business takes a hit but poor back move; GDP growth estimates cut from 7.8% to 6.4%

Overall, we have reduced our GDP growth estimate for H2FY17 to 6.4% from 7.8% earlier. The maximum impact will be seen in Q3FY17. The sectors likely to be hit the most are Construction, Trade, Electricity and Manufacturing. GDP growth for FY17 is expected to be lower at 7% (7.6% earlier) and for FY18 at 7.6% (7.8% earlier).


Impact on economic activities

* Agriculture: Vegetable prices have been hit the most given their perishable nature and a bumper crop due to the early onset of winter. Wholesale vegetable prices were down 70-80% across India, while retail prices were down only 20-30%. Grain prices have been stable so far. There is some productivity loss in farms.

*Construction: Retail construction has been halted, while institutional construction is going on, at a slower pace.

*Trading: Dealers/stockists have seen an inventory build-up of 1.5-1.8x across sectors. New orders have been muted. Wholesalers, especially in North India, have seen an impact on trade. Cash retail sales were impacted the most.

* Manufacturing: We visited various manufacturing hubs across India and observed a sharp decline in activity in the unorganised sector.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9582
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 20 Dec 2016 04:50

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/mar ... 057226.cms
"India's 'own goal' currency swap initiative has put a crimp on the cash-dependent economy," said Singapore-based Paul Gruenwald, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at S&P Global. The government's "well-intentioned but poorly thought through demonetisation program" is driving down the pace of economic activity, he said.

GROWTH
As investors try to assess the impact of Modi's move, all eyes will be on the government's forecast for the year through March ..

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 15604
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby NRao » 21 Dec 2016 19:24

Some very interesting number in this article.

Meet the Man Leading Modi’s Outreach to India’s Huge Diaspora

India’s diaspora -- the world’s largest, according to the United Nations -- includes millions of migrant laborers in the Persian Gulf as well as professionals in North America and Great Britain.


It is a crucial part of India’s economy: In 2015, the World Bank said the diaspora sent back $72.2 billion in remittances, more than India’s bilateral trade with the U.S. and almost as much as the $74.9 billion trade relationship with China.

M_Joshi
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 63
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 00:06

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby M_Joshi » 24 Dec 2016 13:39

A simple pooch. Is it possible to for the Govt. to bring GST from April 1 through ordinance & pass the law as money bill in next 6 months? Amendment law is already passed, then why give hoot about the opposition. Demonetization has happened, then why give time to businesses to come back to old practices by July or September?

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10593
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 24 Dec 2016 22:58

GST is not about the center alone . It's a framework of central-state interaction on taxation .

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9582
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 25 Dec 2016 19:56

Suraj wrote:And Forbes calls it. My bet was that we'd overtake them in 2016-17, and for a time it seemed I was hasty, but Brexit helped:
India Surpasses Great Britain In Absolute GDP Terms
As Theresa May returned home from her unsuccessful visit to India, she would bear witness to another relegation for the UK: India’s economy will be larger than the UK’s, for the first time in more than 100 years. This dramatic shift has been driven by India’s rapid economic growth over the past 25 years as well as Britain's recent woes, particularly with the Brexit. Once expected to overtake the UK GDP in 2020, the surpasso has been accelerated by the nearly 20% decline in the value of the pound over the last 12 months, consequently UK’s 2016 GDP of GBP 1.87 trillion converts to $2.29 trillion at exchange rate of ~GBP 0.81 per $1, whereas India’s GDP of INR 153 trillion converts to $2.30 trillion at exchange rate of ~INR 66.6 per $1. Furthermore, this gap is expected to widen as India grows at 6 to 8% p.a. compared to UK’s growth of 1 to 2% p.a. until 2020, and likely beyond. Even if the currencies fluctuate that modify these figures to rough equality, the verdict is clear that India’s economy has surpassed that of the UK based on future growth prospects.

For a more complete picture, 2016 PPP GDPs (IMF WEO stats):
India $8.72 trillion
UK $2.78 trillion



Not quite yet, but soon:
http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2016/12/22/in ... rtaken-uk/

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10593
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 25 Dec 2016 23:00

Who cares about the specific day to day exchange rate ? That's not the point at all. The larger point is that the story is everywhere already, and it's an evocative one - the badly destroyed colony overtaking the cruel coloniser finally. "Wait wait..." articles don't get even 1% of the eyeballs and traction of the original ones.

Hari Seldon
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8936
Joined: 27 Jul 2009 12:47
Location: University of Trantor

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Hari Seldon » 26 Dec 2016 11:18

http://www.thehindu.com/business/Indust ... 773700.ece

Govt. nod for Reforms to boost Made-ups Sector

As part of simplification of labour laws, the cabinet gave its nod to increase permissible overtime up to 100 hours per quarter in Made-ups manufacturing sector. It also approved making employees' contribution to EPF optional for employees earning less than Rs 15,000 per month.

The interventions are expected to boost employment in the textile sector and create employment for up to eleven lakh persons, lead to increase in exports and enhance benefits to the workers in the textile and apparel sector, an official statement said.

Marten
BRFite
Posts: 1779
Joined: 01 Jan 2010 21:41
Location: Engaging Communists, Uber-Socialists, Maoists, and other pro-poverty groups in fruitful dialog.

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Marten » 28 Dec 2016 14:02

Per PTI/ET: Professor in economics in a US university Viral V Acharya appointed as Deputy Governor of RBI
http://indianexpress.com/article/busine ... t-4448456/
CV Starr professor of economics at the New York University Stern School of Business since 2008

krisna
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5623
Joined: 22 Dec 2008 06:36

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby krisna » 29 Dec 2016 23:02



talk given in 2014.
very humourous in simple terms about economy :rotfl:

talsk about lot of stuff from Indian woman to world economy politics etc. 8)

japanese an endangered species soon.

surprising a mention of Mexican wall also somewhere around 20-30 minutes. Prof said only Mexicans have to build a wall no one else will do. Then Mexicans will come to us side of the wall. :lol: Did trump talk about it in 2014?? :mrgreen:

anti migrants issue turning into anti muslim etc.

European crisis -India gave from 1 to 10 billion dollars etc etc.

talk about exchange of foreign companies entering but keeping quiet on human rights nonsense which china does, siachen J&K etc etc.
leveraging our position on opur streghths of gold appetite etc, :wink:

nationalised family- ma baap ki sarkar.
corportations like small families so that needs increase and govt will be forced to take over. etc etc.

brilliant for people like me who are poor in economy understanding. lot of it made sense

krisna
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5623
Joined: 22 Dec 2008 06:36

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby krisna » 29 Dec 2016 23:04

^^^^
hearing his talk ,
Now about MUDRA and other intitiatives makes huge sense.

Alos heard Gurumurthy talks about feminine economy of India and other talks in youtube etc.

Huge understanding to me

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9582
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 31 Dec 2016 13:26

Bloomberg suggests PM Modi is doing some stimulus spending to offset the slowdown caused by demonetization:
http://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2 ... dia-growth
(Bloomberg) -- With indicators revealing a difficult end to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s unprecedented cash clampdown, he’s turning to time-tested methods to cushion India’s economy.
Lawmakers last week cleared about 600 billion rupees ($9 billion) in additional spending for the year through March, which includes a 10 percent increase in a rural jobs program Modi once mocked. Recent growth has been slower than estimated and inflation slumped below the central bank’s target as Modi’s move dents demand.

Yagnasri
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8813
Joined: 29 May 2007 18:03

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Yagnasri » 31 Dec 2016 14:54

In respect of the stimulus to the economy, many converted BM by paying people to stand in Q and also for using their accounts for deposit the BM notes. Gold was purchased at premium also. Large amounts were spent on this. This along will be somewhere in the tune of 50K Cr.

PS: 50K Cr amount is just Guesstimate.


Return to “Technology & Economic Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests