Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby A_Gupta » 12 Aug 2018 07:24

RoyG wrote:There is a bit of hysteria in all this. With more efficient technology, fusion, thorium battery, renewables, reforestation/afforestation, etc. humanity will get through this CO2 problem.

The system builds up certain momentum, and that is the problem. We have given the climate system push and even if we stop pushing, the time scale for it to come to equilibrium is of the order of hundreds of years.

Remember the deurbanization of Sarawati-Sindhu? That wasn’t man-made climate change, but that was climate change in action. Of course we don’t remember Saraswati-Sindhu, only modern archaeology brought it to light. That is likely the fate of current civilization.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby rsingh » 12 Aug 2018 21:57

SaiK wrote:There was one argument on npr I was listening while on the road, this guy rejects the idea that more forests for reduced CO2. he says, the data shows otherwise. I am not in agreement here.

Saar, it has been proven in lab that higher CO2= Higher yields of hydrocarbons ( let's say wood). But there then there is an equilibrium . Availability of water, sunlight , conc of some minerals becomes limiting factors. Primitive non-flowering trees that gave us most of our coal-reserve, flourished during high level of CO2. IIRC this fact was confirmed (conc of CO)by Ice-core samples taken from Antartica.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Aug 2018 02:07

What's wrong with just reflecting enough sunlight out until the atmosphere gets cooler? (i.e., reduce retained heat)

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby sudarshan » 13 Aug 2018 06:31

UlanBatori wrote:What's wrong with just reflecting enough sunlight out until the atmosphere gets cooler? (i.e., reduce retained heat)


What's wrong indeed? How about carbon sequestering under the ocean - anything wrong with that?

What's wrong is this whole notion that we know the "ideal" temperature at which to maintain this planet, and that we need to implement some kind of global thermostat (at any cost - monetary or otherwise) to achieve and keep that "ideal" constant temperature.

I'm all for reducing pollution, curbing unnecessary consumption, not dumping artificial molecules (plastics) into the oceans, more efficient energy technologies, and all that. What scares me is these drastic ideas like artificially trapping billions of tons of carbon under the ocean, meddling with the solar influx, or climate engineering https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_engineering in general.

As a thought experiment - if it were somehow proven tomorrow that this temperature rise is not due to humans, but due to the sun's variable energy output itself. Would we then feel compelled to curb the temperature rise? Just imagine that all the effects of temperature rise that are happening, or that we think will happen, will all happen - species going extinct (and other hitherto unknown species evolving), glaciers melting, sea levels rising, coral reefs bleaching, more hurricanes or earthquakes, land going underwater, water wars, food wars, sex-deprivation wars, whole countries or continents turning into desert and getting depopulated - but all of this is because of temperature rise (10 deg. C by the end of the century), which, however, is proven to be because of increased solar output. Should we then meddle and curb it? Or is this natural rise okay, and should we only stop any rise due to human activity? It's not just a philosophical question, it has extremely practical implications for our role (or perceived role) on this planet.

I don't know the answer to the above question BTW.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby UlanBatori » 13 Aug 2018 07:16

Thanks. Open question. So far I/we have not seen anything wrong, and are sending it like Asvamedha Yaga to see who shoots at it and whether they survive our counter-arguments. It is not like carbon-sequestering: that has the bad side that Abdul bin Kabul can one day make it all leak out.

Re: non-anthropogenic, my friends in Ulan Bator Monastery believe that the Solar System is right now going through a slightly denser part of the interstellar clouds. The Bow Shock ahead of the Solar System heats up this gas, so the entire System has a bit higher temperature.

One din the Solar System will come out of this cloud into clearer Space. Shock intensity goes way down. Temperature goes down. Ice Age is on us in a flash. Himalayas reach 40,000 feet in height, ocean goes down and you can drive from Florida to Havana. Govt pays people to burn more gasoline and emit more fumes. Smoking is made mandatory.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby Neshant » 13 Aug 2018 09:30

The amount of C02 increase is supposedly less than a fraction of 1%.
There are discreprencies in the way levels of C02 are measured putting even that claim into question.
That plus plants in a greenhouse with a higher C02 concentration grow larger and faster.

Changes in atmospheric carbon have not been shown to be linked to human activities to begin with.
Its risen massively in the past well before humans arrived - sometimes very rapidly within a span of a decade.
That issue has not been resolved let alone whether slightly more C02 would be positive or negative and for whom.
After all, human civilization itself only arose after the Earth began warming up 10,000 years ago.

Its all mute point because bankers need to skim cream off carbon credit trading and are eagerly pushing for carbon taxes.
Any proper studies or conclusions that don't support skimming cream are deemed irrelevant.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby A_Gupta » 23 Sep 2018 19:41

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... e-warnings
Shell and Exxon's secret 1980s climate change warnings
Newly found documents from the 1980s show that fossil fuel companies privately predicted the global damage that would be caused by their products.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby Neshant » 11 Feb 2019 07:47

The global warming fake science aside, what will be the effect of the shifting magnetic poles of the planet that is currently underway?

Its reportedly shifting at a rate faster than any time in human history.


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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby Theo_Fidel » 11 Feb 2019 23:26

sudarshan wrote:What's wrong is this whole notion that we know the "ideal" temperature at which to maintain this planet, and that we need to implement some kind of global thermostat (at any cost - monetary or otherwise) to achieve and keep that "ideal" constant temperature.


There is an ideal temperature for Humans for sure so why increase the risk. Agriculture is only possible in the present stable climate. We lived on this planet for 300,000 years and went absolutely nowhere, till the climate stabilized 10,000 years ago and the ice retreated allowing agriculture to expand in the cusp before the deserts expand. Planet could easily wipe us out without a second thought, why increase the risk.

I have said this before, it's like peeing in the pool. You can do it for a while, nothing happens, then suddenly one day it turns into the Kuuvum in Chennai. Show some responsibility to future generations, stop peeing in the pool.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby NRao » 12 Feb 2019 08:43

Feb 11, 2019 :: The Feds are spending $48 million to move his village. But he doesn't want to go.


But still this land, settled by Native Americans when they were forced from their ancestral areas onto the Trail of Tears nearly two centuries ago, is disappearing.

Rising seas, subsidence and erosion have seen 98% of the surface of Isle de Jean Charles smothered by water since 1950. And it's not stopping.
Last edited by NRao on 12 Feb 2019 09:12, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby NRao » 12 Feb 2019 08:58

Perchance happened to be around for this:

Jan 14, 2019 :: Long Beach says sea-level rise will bring dire flooding to some neighborhoods

“Residents can continue living on Naples and the Peninsula for several decades as long as you’re willing to experience occasional flooding,” said Jerry Schubel, a marine scientist and CEO of the Aquarium of the Pacific. “(But) over the next few decades, you need to think about moving.


Image

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby NRao » 12 Feb 2019 09:06

Jan 12, 2019 :: DeSantis (quietly) acknowledges threat sea-level rise poses to Florida

After eight years of Gov. Rick Scott degrading science and dismissing climate change, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced Thursday he will appoint a chief science officer to deal with “current and emerging environmental concerns most pressing to Floridians.”

This welcome turnaround came just two days after DeSantis’ swearing-in, in an executive order that also calls for $2.5 billion in Everglades restoration, creates a task force on blue-green toxic algae and instructs the South Florida Water Management District to immediately start the next phase of the reservoir project south of Lake Okeechobee.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby Amber G. » 13 Feb 2019 03:31

Latest data : Worth looking at by all serious people.

Animation showing the evolution of global mean temperature vs. carbon dioxide concentration since 1850, now updated to include 2018.

Though 2018 is a bit cooler than recent years, it still is one of the warmest years ever and lies close to the trend lines ...
https://twitter.com/i/status/1094656134835781633

If you prefer by region this is nice:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4&v=7xTcIJ2fuWw

Full Report:
http://berkeleyearth.org/2018-temperatures/

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby Amber G. » 13 Feb 2019 07:57

From MIT's Technical Review -===> "We have 12 years to make the urgent changes needed to avoid extreme heat, drought, floods, and poverty..


The last five years have been Earth’s warmest since records began
2018 was the fourth warmest year since records began in 1880, according to studies out today from NASA, the UK Met Office, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Record-breaking: The NASA study found that Earth’s global surface temperature last year was 0.83 °C warmer than the 1951-1980 mean. That temperature was topped only in 2016, 2017, and 2015. The data shows that the last five years are collectively the warmest ever recorded, while 18 of the 19 hottest years have taken place since 2001. The NOAA study, which uses a different methodology, agreed.

Over the long term: Since 1880, Earth has warmed up by about 1 °C, a phenomenon driven largely by humans emitting carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. “We’re no longer talking about a situation where global warming is something in the future. It’s here. It’s now,” Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA group that conducted the analysis, told the New York Times.

More to come: A separate report from the UK’s Met Office out today also logged 2018 as the fourth warmest year. It predicted that global temperatures will continue to rise over the next five years, with a 10% chance that we’ll breach the mark of 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels.

A reminder: A recent landmark climate report warned that we must keep global warming below 1.5 °C rather than the previously agreed cap of 2 °C to avoid extreme heat, drought, floods, and poverty. The report concluded we have 12 years to make the urgent changes needed to avoid this threshold.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby NRao » 13 Feb 2019 09:35


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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby Mort Walker » 13 Feb 2019 09:36


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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby sudarshan » 15 Feb 2019 09:04

Theo_Fidel wrote:
sudarshan wrote:What's wrong is this whole notion that we know the "ideal" temperature at which to maintain this planet, and that we need to implement some kind of global thermostat (at any cost - monetary or otherwise) to achieve and keep that "ideal" constant temperature.


There is an ideal temperature for Humans for sure so why increase the risk. Agriculture is only possible in the present stable climate. We lived on this planet for 300,000 years and went absolutely nowhere, till the climate stabilized 10,000 years ago and the ice retreated allowing agriculture to expand in the cusp before the deserts expand. Planet could easily wipe us out without a second thought, why increase the risk.

I have said this before, it's like peeing in the pool. You can do it for a while, nothing happens, then suddenly one day it turns into the Kuuvum in Chennai. Show some responsibility to future generations, stop peeing in the pool.


And this is what I've said before - I'm all for curbing wasteful consumption, reducing (if possible eliminating) pollution, going for sustainable development. IOW, upsetting the apple cart as little as possible.

The point where I differ is, when there is talk about sequestering billions of tons of carbon under the ocean, putting mirrors in space to deflect sunlight, and drastic climate engineering in general. You tell me - all this doesn't sound like "increasing the risk" of having the planet "wipe us out without a second thought" to you (to use your own words)? All this kind of drastic action seems to me to be not only peeing, but also pooping and doing *ulti* in the pool.

Let's reduce our impact on the planet by all means, and that includes minimizing all pollution, including CO2. Let's not start getting too clever by half and coming up with drastic "solutions," whose effects we have no clue about, and which could very well wipe us off the planet a couple of centuries from now - which is exactly what we want to avoid, right?

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby Neshant » 17 Feb 2019 17:24

Theo_Fidel wrote:
There is an ideal temperature for Humans for sure so why increase the risk. Agriculture is only possible in the present stable climate. We lived on this planet for 300,000 years and went absolutely nowhere, till the climate stabilized 10,000 years ago and the ice retreated allowing agriculture to expand in the cusp before the deserts expand. Planet could easily wipe us out without a second thought, why increase the risk.

I have said this before, it's like peeing in the pool. You can do it for a while, nothing happens, then suddenly one day it turns into the Kuuvum in Chennai. Show some responsibility to future generations, stop peeing in the pool.


You are under some misguided notion that the Earth's climate will remain static if humans vanish from the planet.

As per ice core records, there have been times in Earth's history when the climate has changed massively in a short period of time - hundreds of thousands of years before humans ever arrived. Amazingly not one scientist can explain why massive temperature drops occurred during that time. But they can predict 0.5 degree temperature rise over 100 years is due to humans!

How do you know the current output of green house gasses, carbon or whatever else by humans isn't *preventing* the Earth from dipping into an ice age? How do you know any of it even has an effect to begin with given far greater temperature fluctuations have happened on Earth before humans ever existed?

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby Theo_Fidel » 17 Feb 2019 22:24

Sudarshan,

Other than few too clever by half bandas no one in responsibilty has a concensus saying those things about mirrors in space and iron in yhe ocean. In fact if you tried the iron in the ocean or SO2 stuff I bet even greenpeace, no angels, would clout you over the head to quit it.

But we definitely need to move to the planet cycle of sun/ wind for electricity, maybe energy eventually. Think 100 years from now, we are not burnig coal in 2100. So why wait around, lets push it along as hard as we can.

Neshant,

You are misreading what the ice cores say. Before this climate moderation about 10kya the climate varied wildly. Agriculture in temprate zones was impossible. Every 20-30 years snow ice would cover the place followed by 30 year droughts. 40kya the sahara was temperate but look at it now. NA, Russia, EU China would drop out. Indias monsoon, which is stable predictable, yes really! would become even more variable. Blink of an eye.

We are trying to prolong this moderation. Because when the moderation is over, there ain't going to be 7 billion folks on this planet. Maybe a few hundred million clustered around the tropics.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby Neshant » 18 Feb 2019 10:37

Theo_Fidel wrote:Neshant,

You are misreading what the ice cores say. Before this climate moderation about 10kya the climate varied wildly. Agriculture in temprate zones was impossible. Every 20-30 years snow ice would cover the place followed by 30 year droughts. 40kya the sahara was temperate but look at it now. NA, Russia, EU China would drop out. Indias monsoon, which is stable predictable, yes really! would become even more variable. Blink of an eye.

We are trying to prolong this moderation. Because when the moderation is over, there ain't going to be 7 billion folks on this planet. Maybe a few hundred million clustered around the tropics.


What makes you think doing or not doing something has any effect on the Earth's climate in the first place?

What ended the ice age 10,000 years ago was sure as hell not green house gases from humans. There were hardly any humans around. So what caused the change in temperature? Why was it not static and "predictable" in the absence of man. Ditto for massive temperature fluctuations which occurred well before man ever arrived.

As I said, you are under the misguided notion that human activity is going to tip some balance yet you can't even demonstrate what caused massive temperature shifts of the past without humans. Is human contribution 0.001% or 90% to the alleged tipping of this temperature see-saw? Maybe emission of green house gasses by humans is _preventing_ the Earth from going into an ice age lasting 500,000 years? How do you know it isn't?

Merely doing or not doing something without understanding what's actually happening is not science.


Nothing says human activity is having a positive, negative or any effect on the Earth's temperature.

The Sun by the way comprises 98+% of the mass of the solar system. Have you asked the question, what effect do thermo cycles in the sun have on the planets in the solar system. I mean after all, when something is 98% of the mass of any system, it surely must have a huge effect. But I bet you'd never ask such a question. You'd be doing something or the other without understanding it thinking you are preserving some mythical balance.

The Sahara was once green due to the shifting of the monsoon patterns - likely due to the tilt of the Earth relative to the sun. This happened approx 20,000 years ago i think. There was NOTHING any human could do about it. Nor did any human cause it. Had they been driving around in automobiles back then, it almost certainly would have had zero effect on speeding it up nor preventing it.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby NRao » 18 Feb 2019 12:28

Texas wind generation keeps growing, state remains at No. 1

As wind technology has advanced, the cost of electricity generated by wind turbines has fallen by about one-third since 2010, according to the Energy Department. In Texas, the growth in wind energy has come as coal-fired power plants have shut down, unable to compete with lower-cost wind farms and natural gas plants. Wind surpassed coal in generating capacity last year, according to ERCOT.


Perhaps the greatest hurdle to wind and other renewable energy sources playing a bigger role in the power mix is they are intermittent, creating a challenge to integrate them into the grid. ERCOT, which manages 90 percent of the state’s power load for some 24 million customers, is improving its weather forecasting to get the most out of wind power. ERCOT has hired two firms that provide forecasts at five minute intervals to allow the grid operator to better to better predict wind production and adjust accordingly, said Dan Woodfin, the senior manager of system operations.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby NRao » 18 Feb 2019 12:35

Texas Grid Operator Reports Fuel Mix Is Now 30% Carbon-Free

January 23, 2019
Texas may be the center of the U.S. oil and gas industry, but the latest data shows that the state's competitive energy market is increasingly favoring clean energy over fossil fuel alternatives.

New information from state grid operator ERCOT shows that carbon-free resources made up more than 30 percent of its 2018 energy consumption, and a slightly larger percentage of its 2019 generation capacity. In both cases, the largest share of credit goes to the state’s massive wind farms, which provided 18.6 percent of 2018 energy and make up 23.4 percent of 2019 capacity, followed by nuclear power, which served 10.9 percent of last year’s needs and will provide 5.4 percent of this year’s capacity.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby Theo_Fidel » 18 Feb 2019 22:42

Neshant,

I’m not ignoring you but I think it is best we not continue this conversation. Have a great day.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby NRao » 19 Feb 2019 01:49

Mar 24, 2017 :: What Really Turned the Sahara Desert From a Green Oasis Into a Wasteland?

10,000 years ago, this iconic desert was unrecognizable. A new hypothesis suggests that humans may have tipped the balance


Archaeologist David Wright has an idea: Maybe humans and their goats tipped the balance, kick-starting this dramatic ecological transformation. In a new study in the journal Frontiers in Earth Science, Wright set out to argue that humans could be the answer to a question that has plagued archaeologists and paleoecologists for years.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby NRao » 19 Feb 2019 02:47

Feb 4, 2019 :: European colonizers killed so many natives it changed the climate

Europeans invading the Americas caused so much death and destruction that they warped the planet’s climate.

Colonizers killed off 56 million people across North, Central and South America within 140 years of arriving on the continent, triggering a global cooldown.

That’s because large swathes of farmland abandoned in the wake of the devastation quickly reforested, sucking up greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, according to a new study.

Carbon levels changed enough to cool the Earth by 1610, just over a century after Columbus arrived in 1492.

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby NRao » 21 Feb 2019 06:10

Climate change: How do we know?

Image
This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution. (Credit: Vostok ice core data/J.R. Petit et al.; NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 record.) Find out more about ice cores (external site).

The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era — and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth’s orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives.

The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is extremely likely (greater than 95 percent probability) to be the result of human activity since the mid-20th century and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented over decades to millennia.1

Earth-orbiting satellites and other technological advances have enabled scientists to see the big picture, collecting many different types of information about our planet and its climate on a global scale. This body of data, collected over many years, reveals the signals of a changing climate.

The heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases was demonstrated in the mid-19th century.2 Their ability to affect the transfer of infrared energy through the atmosphere is the scientific basis of many instruments flown by NASA. There is no question that increased levels of greenhouse gases must cause the Earth to warm in response.

Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that the Earth’s climate responds to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Ancient evidence can also be found in tree rings, ocean sediments, coral reefs, and layers of sedimentary rocks. This ancient, or paleoclimate, evidence reveals that current warming is occurring roughly ten times faster than the average rate of ice-age-recovery warming.3

The evidence for rapid climate change is compelling:

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Re: Climate Change: Propaganda Vs Reality

Postby NRao » 21 Feb 2019 06:30

This may impact India:

Glencore to limit coal production after pressure from investors

The commodities trader Glencore has bowed to pressure from shareholders, including the Church of England, to limit coal production for environmental reasons – days after reporting that it produced nearly 130m tonnes of the fossil fuel last year.

The Switzerland-based firm, whose oil-trading operation is based in London, laid out plans to improve its environmental record, including a review of its membership of trade bodies it fears may be undermining the international Paris climate agreement.

Glencore, which is Australia’s biggest miner of coal, said it was responding to concern within the investment community. The Church of England, which is understood to have a stake worth just under £10m in the group, welcomed the announcement.

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