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Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

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chetak
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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby chetak » 20 Oct 2017 21:29

Dumal wrote:
chetak wrote:


The article does not make much sense... for one, they say six and list seven. I am lazy to go check on IRCTC itself... But I think they only mean the payment gateway operators being these named ones. Beyond that one can use any visa, mc, rupay etc.


maybe some PSU banks have a common credit card backend, from a single company??

SBI credit cards was for some time back ended by Amex. I don't know if that situation has changed??

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Gagan » 22 Oct 2017 09:46

New railway coaches

https://youtu.be/e9OUdqdNUdk

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby sanjayc » 22 Oct 2017 12:52

In comments, they say these are luxury coaches of "Royal Rajasthan on Wheels" being taken back to base yard.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Supratik » 24 Oct 2017 18:43


Ashokk
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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Ashokk » 25 Oct 2017 10:50

New rail website, app soon to help book tickets faster
NEW DELHI: The railways is set to launch a revamped website and new Android-based Indian Railways Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) mobile App to ensure faster and easier ticket-booking and help passengers plan their travel better.

The new website will be passenger-friendly, clutter-free with easier log-in and navigation and will not have the problem of getting timed out during booking of a ticket.

The state-run transporter aims to gather a larger chunk of business through its new website and mobile App from other travel websites and Apps.

The new features being introduced include display of confirmed tickets and dates to help plan journey by relying on data analytics and also curb misuse of facilities such as Tatkal.

The transporter has also plans to start a mechanism to send SMS alerts to travellers about arrival and departure of trains on a real-time basis.

Text alerts will also be sent to passengers mobile phones during the journey about any delay, cause of delay and the time the train will take to reach the next station and its final destination.

The new features will be added with the help of Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) to inform travellers on exact location of the train by using satellites.

"This will help anyone to track a train's location on a real-time basis," said an official, adding that at present local station officials feed the train's arrival and departure time at that particular location which is often being manipulated to avoid punishment for late running.

A railway official admits that other travel websites at present are much easier to navigate.

Another official pointed out that the issue of coordination between IRCTC and Centre for Railway Information Systems (CRIS), an IT arm of the railways, is also being resolved.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby ManishC » 27 Oct 2017 00:24

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/26/ge-considers-exiting-railroad-business-report.html
GE looking to get out of Diesel locomotive manufacturing.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Vasu » 27 Oct 2017 00:35

What happens if GE sells the business while its IR contract for 1000 diesel locos is underway? I think the GoI already made a mistake by signing for 1000 diesel locos and now GE is offering them no window to change to electric.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Prem » 28 Oct 2017 07:53

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 257938.cms

Indian Railways opens door to private steel manufacturers


The state-run freight and passenger carrier is seeking to buy 700,000 metric tons of rails for track upgrades, Railway Minister Piyush Goyal said. The move will ensure steady supplies and competitive prices. Jindal Steel & Power Ltd., one of the biggest non-state steelmaker, may benefit as it’s the only other local producer of this grade, according to Goutam Chakraborty, an analyst at Emkay Global Financial Services. If Steel Authority cannot supply, then they will go in for other producers. So in that way, JSPL will definitely be benefiting,” Chakraborty said by phone from Mumbai. “The railways’ first preference will always be Steel Authority.” Prime Minister Narendra Modi is pouring about 8.6 trillion rupees[b] ($132 billion) to upgrade the aging lines of the network that was started under British colonial rule. Giant track-laying projects are underway to modernize passenger and freight movement.Market Share The tender gains significance as Steel Authority and Jindal Steel have been trying to boost market share and profits after reporting losses for at least two straight years even as they battle high debt levels. Indian Railways expects annual demand for steel rails to rise to 1.5 million tons in the year ending March from about 800,000 tons in the prior 12-month period.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Mollick.R » 03 Nov 2017 16:08

First this story appeared on media

40% seats on Mumbai-Ahmedabad trains go vacant: RTI reply

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/40-seats-on-mumbai-ahmedabad-trains-go-vacant-rti-reply-117103100908_1.html


According to RTI replies received by Mumbai activist Anil Galgali, only in the past one quarter, the Western Railway's staggering losses on this sector is nearly Rs 30 crore, or around Rs. 10 crore per month......
......The Indian Railways have also admitted that they have no plans to introduce any new trains on this sector which is already in the red

......The WR provided the data of all the major trains plying on the Mumbai-Ahmedabad-Mumbai route like the Durantos, Shatabdi Expresses, Lokshakti Express, Gujarat Mail, Bhavnagar Express, Saurashtra Express, Vivek-Bhuj Express and others.
Faced with the vacancies on existing trains, the WR Divisional Engineer, Ahmedabad informed that there is no fresh proposal to introduce any new trains on this sector.
Last edited by Mollick.R on 03 Nov 2017 17:04, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Mollick.R » 03 Nov 2017 16:17

Than Western Railway came out with this one

100% occupancy: Railways turns down RTI report of losses on Ahmedabad-Mumbai sector

Western Railway on Wednesday said that total earnings in the last quarter (July-September) was Rs 233 crore, and that the occupancy in that period was 100 per cent.


-------Shri Ravinder Bhakar, Chief PRO, Western Railway said that the reply given in the RTI query is against the specific question regarding number of passengers from only Mumbai Central to Ahmedabad and Ahmedabad to Mumbai Central Station i.e. only between two stations.
Clarifying on the report based on RTI query, he added that the information given in the query does not include information about the enroute traffic – passengers who travel from originating stations to intermediate stations and those who travel from intermediate stations to destination station. This, in turn, he said showed lesser occupancy.
Bhakar said that after taking into account the enroute traffic in the said period, the total occupancy was 103 per cent in both directions.


Link-1
http://www.indiatvnews.com/business/news-100-occupancy-railways-turns-down-rti-reports-of-losses-on-ahmedabad-mumbai-sector-409693

Link-2
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/now-western-railways-says-mumbai-ahmedabad-sector-profitable-occupancy-over-100-2426645.html

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby chetak » 03 Nov 2017 16:25

Vasu wrote:What happens if GE sells the business while its IR contract for 1000 diesel locos is underway? I think the GoI already made a mistake by signing for 1000 diesel locos and now GE is offering them no window to change to electric.


Its a long term sale plus maintenance contract.

The liability of GE is not diminished in any way. It should be binding on the new owner too. or a huge penalty clause kicks in, I suppose.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Mollick.R » 03 Nov 2017 16:36

Lots of confusion & fog on the air on the matter.

Even with IR's clarification there are few doubts. Like....

1. Between Mumbai & Ahmedabad a normal train have average 10-12 stops & with that the occupancy (load factor) is 103%.

2. Fares between intermediate stations will be as much as that of from start (Mumbai) to final terminating station (Ahmbd)

3. How will bullet train achieve break even with high capital investment , less number of station & much higher fares (may lead to less users). :shock: :?:

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Mollick.R » 03 Nov 2017 17:02

Few sites like Quint, The Wire, The Logical Indian is rabid anti BJP & anti namo so, I always take them with a bucket of salt, but this article written by Bishwajit Bhattacharyya (former additional solicitor general of India) has sown several doubts even for a hardliner NDA/NAMO supporter like me.

https://thewire.in/192863/india-japan-yen-loan-mumbai-ahmedabad-bullet-train/

If the rupee’s purchasing power has dipped from 19.77 yen in 1985 to 1.72 yen today, then after 50 years can a rupee buy anything more than just a fraction of a yen?


Today Re 1 buys 1.72 yen, ten years ago Re 1 could buy 2.80 yen and, 32 years ago, say on February 26, 1985, Re 1 could buy 19.77 yen. On February 26, 1985, the exchange rate of dollar/yen was 261 and that of dollar/rupee was 13.20. Divide 261 with 13.20, you get 19.77. So, had India borrowed 150,000 crores yen on February 26, 1985, today, that is after 32 years, the principal amount of loan (without interest) would have swelled 11.49 times (divide 19.77 by 1.72). Depending on repayment schedule and lock-in period of loan, the multiplication factor could have reduced from 11.49 to 6 or 7 on a conservative estimate. This is simple arithmetic and no rocket science.

So, can we not predict what fraction of a yen, Re 1 would buy after 50 years? If the rupee’s purchasing power has dipped from 19.77 yen in 1985 to 1.72 yen today, then after 50 years can a rupee buy anything more than just a fraction of a yen? Unlikely, unless yen interest rate shoots up and rupee rate becomes close to zero, which is highly improbable. Therefore, this 50-year yen loan, with a 15 years lock-in period, is anything but free. It is in fact a rip off. By the time the loan is repaid in 50 years, India would have shelled out Rs 300,000 crores at least, or even more, depending on how quickly the loan is extinguished. This excludes interest of 0.1% on yen loan which would add to the cost. Yen is a dangerous currency and it would be imprudent to ignore its track record.
India can ill-afford to keep such a huge liability in yen unhedged. But even the cost of hedging rupee/yen exchange risk would be prohibitive. Initially India would be required to buy Yen 150,000 crore forward outright in the international market, and keep doing rupee/yen swaps – sell yen spot and buy yen back forward, matching with each due date of loan repayment installment. This process would continue till the entire loan is extinguished. This is called roll-over swap, which corporate in India execute to hedge currency exchange risk in external commercial borrowings. But, such swaps, on each occasion, would entail huge costs for the simple reason that forward delivery of yen against rupee would be at a premium so long as yen interest rate remains lower than rupee.
It is axiomatic that forward delivery of a currency yielding lower rate of interest would always be at a premium vis-à-vis the currency yielding higher rate of interest. The yen interest rate is now close to zero. The rupee repo rate (rate at which banks borrow from the Reserve Bank of India) is 6%. Thus, multiple swaps executed till the currency of the loan would be hugely expensive as forward premia would have to be paid by India on each swap. India would thus end up paying well over Rs 300,000 crores (multiplication factor 3.4 taken) on a most conservative estimate. Notably, rupee/yen quote will not be available directly in the international forex market; consequently, dollar being the intervention currency for India, swaps would have to be performed through dollar/yen quotes. Rupee would thus have be converted into yen only through dollar.

The above figures/calculations do not take into account 0.1% interest burden on yen loan. Today, interest rate in Japan is hovering around zero to fractionally negative, like in Sweden. On September 7, 2017, the Central Bank of Sweden held its benchmark interest rate at (minus) – 0.5%. Similarly, the Central Bank of Japan has slashed interest rate to just shade below zero. Tokyo Inter Bank Offer Rate (TIBOR) is around 0.06%. A ten year Japanese Government Bond yields barely 0.04%. Therefore, 0.1% interest rate that Japan would earn from India is a very lucrative investment opportunity for Japan, which is struggling to fight deflation for over 15 years. More the lock-in period/tenure of yen lending in India, merrier it is for Japan, and costlier it is for India.

......................A study carried out by IIM, Ahmedabad, indicated that a 100 daily trips would be required between Ahmedabad and Mumbai to make the bullet train financially viable. About 35 trips are reportedly being planned.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby prahaar » 03 Nov 2017 18:03

The above article is extrapolating 0.1% Yen loan, and projected our economy's disastrous run to continue for 50 more years. Furthermore, it has not bothered to compare the interest rate India has paid for other loans (in past as well as present). The author has not bothered to share any information about other loans that India has taken from foreign institutions and the rates that were charged.

Without providing comparative data of other borrowings (IMF/WB/etc.), I am sorry to say that this article at best indicates the consequences of improper utilization of the borrowed funds.

I am attaching a Delhi Metro report performing a cost benefit analysis and coming up with some numbers.

http://www.iegindia.org/upload/publicat ... /wp273.pdf (Social Cost-Benefit Analysis of Delhi Metro)

Irrespective of the Delhi metro study findings, I guess most people can state now (with benefit of hindsight) without hesitation that Delhi Metro was a great idea, better late than never. One can certainly argue, whether Ahmadabad-Mumbai was the most critical route or whether it could have been Bangalore-Mysore or Pune-Mumbai or Delhi-Lucknow.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby JayS » 03 Nov 2017 18:29

Mollick.R wrote:Few sites like Quint, The Wire, The Logical Indian is rabid anti BJP & anti namo so, I always take them with a bucket of salt, but this article written by Bishwajit Bhattacharyya (former additional solicitor general of India) has sown several doubts even for a hardliner NDA/NAMO supporter like me.

https://thewire.in/192863/india-japan-yen-loan-mumbai-ahmedabad-bullet-train/

If the rupee’s purchasing power has dipped from 19.77 yen in 1985 to 1.72 yen today, then after 50 years can a rupee buy anything more than just a fraction of a yen?




Rupee devaluated in 1991 significantly and later due to very high inflation. From the way things are going, rupee seems to only be strengthening in absolute terms in future. Unless Yen strengthens even more, there is no way Rupee's value relative to Yen will go down significantly. Japanese economy is stagnated and perhaps will remain so for quite a while. While Indian economy is booming. How on earth any one can extrapolate old data without considering most obvious future outlook..? As they say in statutory warning, past performance data is no guarantee of future returns. Even in the case we decide to keep Rupee devaluated for trade purpose, we will simply have more rupees to buy stuff, with growing GDP.

And he compares negative benchmark rates with actual loan rates. Actual loan rates are always higher than benchmark rates. Does one get loan at negative interest in Sweden..? In India there is minimum of 2-2.5% difference in benchmark rate and actual loan rate for any type of loan.

Obviously, 0.1% interest is a lucrative deal for Japan for whom keeping money in Japan is like wasting it. But its not the interest that they are after, but the business they are getting. Huge current and future business potential.

Didn't bother reading further.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Karthik S » 03 Nov 2017 19:17

Even Delhi metro had it's good share of pessimists. Until people actually see E5s running at 320 kmph on the line, they'll keep saying such things. But once that line is up and running, many states will follow just like metro systems across India.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Supratik » 03 Nov 2017 21:47

I don't think it is a good idea to use reports from far left webpapers like the Wire to discuss economic issues. Socialism has created economic basket cases wherever it has been practised. Only fools will believe their economic theory. The pessimism about real interest rate on the loan will be correct only if someone like Moan moan runs the country where the rupee devalued from 45 to 67 to the dollar in less than five years.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby chetak » 03 Nov 2017 22:22

Supratik wrote:I don't think it is a good idea to use reports from far left webpapers like the Wire to discuss economic issues. Socialism has created economic basket cases wherever it has been practised. Only fools will believe their economic theory. The pessimism about real interest rate on the loan will be correct only if someone like Moan moan runs the country where the rupee devalued from 45 to 67 to the dollar in less than five years.


commies like daniel raja and yechury want the GoI to run hefty deficits like 8-9% and not try and cap it under any circumstances. They say don't listen to capitalist institutions like world bank and IMF.

With such no-bell ideas, they will tank the country's economy and make us a basket case, and be ensuring riots in the streets along with bloody revolution, paving the way for some fidel cstro type nutcase to take over and make it a commie paradise.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Supratik » 03 Nov 2017 22:29

Also BRF regular readers should know by now that journals like Wire exist not to give sound economic or governance advise but to push a globally discredited political agenda.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Dipanker » 03 Nov 2017 23:52

Mollick.R wrote:......................A study carried out by IIM, Ahmedabad, indicated that a 100 daily trips would be required between Ahmedabad and Mumbai to make the bullet train financially viable. About 35 trips are reportedly being planned.


Is this right? If 100 daily trips are required to break even then simple math would say that at least 101 trips are required to run it under profit. So why run only 35 trips and potentially a loss of ~65% ?

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby prahaar » 04 Nov 2017 00:29

Dipankerji, do you think a new bran service will operate at full rate in first phase of operation? A new airport capable of operating X flights per hour does not usually start with that rate of operation. The 100 trips per day was the estimate in the report, 35 was quoted somewhere, none of these mean 65% operating loss over 50 year period. This discussion is going nowhere except FUD.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Suraj » 04 Nov 2017 00:48

The study assumes:
* 800 seats per train. Each standard Shinkansen trainset actually has ~1630 seats (16 coaches, only some shorter terminal services run 8 coaches). That cuts the number of train rides in 50% right there.
* Average 8% rate of interest on remaining 20% of the cost borne by India (beyond the Japanese loan). But this presumes that this amount is being financed in its entirety and not funded partially or in whole by railway revenues. There's no documentation of that.
* The assumed fare of Rs.1500 is between 1A and 2A current rates. Actual prices could be 25% higher than that, and still be ~15% less than current 1A fares. The trains only come into service in 2023-25, and we're talking about a HSR corridor between two highly industrialized states with sufficient business links and personal incomes. In other words they can bump up the assumed ticket prices by 25% , and still make the corridor work easily. Which in turn bumps their revenue projections by another quarter.

Any time anyone makes a claim on this topic, it helps to list the specific assumptions they make. 'IIM-A said so' is not sufficient. The study is suspect simply because it assumes trainsets have half the capacity of what Shinkansens currently carry.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Mollick.R » 04 Nov 2017 15:04

Suraj Sir,
thanks for putting up the points.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Kashi » 04 Nov 2017 17:47

Suraj wrote:* 800 seats per train. Each standard Shinkansen trainset actually has ~1630 seats (16 coaches, only some shorter terminal services run 8 coaches). That cuts the number of train rides in 50% right there.


Just to point out that E5 Shinkansen runs with 10 coaches. The 16 coach trains run on the Tokaido Shinkansen route which uses a different trainset N700Athat have a top operating speed of 300 km/h, which is less than the E5 top speed of 320 km/h.

That being said, it must be pointed out that Tokaido route is a very busy route and Mumbai-Ahmedabad by all indicators will be the Indian equivalent. Barring any technical issues in scaling up E5 Trainsets to run 16 coaches instead of 10 at E5 operating speeds, it's entirely possible MUM-AHD route will see these trainsets operating in the near future.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Karthik S » 04 Nov 2017 17:54

Kashi wrote:
Suraj wrote:* 800 seats per train. Each standard Shinkansen trainset actually has ~1630 seats (16 coaches, only some shorter terminal services run 8 coaches). That cuts the number of train rides in 50% right there.


Just to point out that E5 Shinkansen runs with 10 coaches. The 16 coach trains run on the Tokaido Shinkansen route which uses a different trainset N700Athat have a top operating speed of 300 km/h, which is less than the E5 top speed of 320 km/h.

That being said, it must be pointed out that Tokaido route is a very busy route and Mumbai-Ahmedabad by all indicators will be the Indian equivalent. Barring any technical issues in scaling up E5 Trainsets to run 16 coaches instead of 10 at E5 operating speeds, it's entirely possible MUM-AHD route will see these trainsets operating in the near future.


I am not sure if you can add coaches to such trainsets, the entire trainset functions as a single body. If the demand is high, I think two E5s will be conjoined. It will be a long train with 20 coaches, but the platform has to be built taking this into consideration.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Kashi » 04 Nov 2017 18:02

Karthik S wrote:I am not sure if you can add coaches to such trainsets, the entire trainset functions as a single body. If the demand is high, I think two E5s will be conjoined. It will be a long train with 20 coaches, but the platform has to be built taking this into consideration.


Actually it happens all the time on the Tohoku Shinkansen route where E5 Shinkansens operate

Image

The green trainset on the left is E5 and the red one on the right is E6.

The E5 and E6 trainsets couple between Tokyo and Morioka stations (after Morioka they go their separate ways-E5 onwards to Aomori and E6 to Akita) and it appears that the conjoined trainset (17 coaches!!) operates at 320 km/h.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Karthik S » 04 Nov 2017 18:04

That's what I meant, this will be situation if the demand is high for a single journey. Or else, the Japanese could come up with newer train in these 5 years that will address our needs.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Suraj » 04 Nov 2017 21:55

Thanks again to our resident Japanese correspondent Kashi for the additional information on the Tohoku Shinkansen trainsets , which is what we are getting . I’ve only ridden the Tokaido line south of Tokyo . Yes our line will be heavily utilized like the Tokaido line and will require the longest possible trainsets.

By modifying all the original assumed parameters including 2x seats per train and substantially greater but still reasonable ticket prices (not just for today but especially for 2023-25 when per capita incomes will have risen a lot) the numbers change A LOT. ~30-40 trips that are needed to be profitable can easily fit into a regular 13-15hr running day - one train every 20 minutes . Tokaido line is a train every 15 minutes I think, but once again Kashi will know that better ...

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Supratik » 04 Nov 2017 23:23

Also by that time the 1A, 2A and airfares will also rise. The other point socialists miss is that young India is an aspirational country now not a poverty mongering Nehruvian state. So people would prefer to ride in a chi chi bullet train than a third class IR train for a few bucks more unless the IR trains have become of European standard by that time. These same set of people objected when the Mumbai-Pune expressway, GQ and Delhi metro were proposed to be built.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Suraj » 05 Nov 2017 01:55

Of course they will rise. My 25% premium over their presumed Rs1500 ticket is very conservative, just to make a point that claimed the ‘100 trips a day’ break even point is WAY off the mark despite making just small conservative corrections to the assumptions made . In reality they’ll manage fine with a typical HSR dispatch rate of 2-3 an hour, perhaps more frequent (3-5 an hour) early morning and evening and less frequent at other times. They will not have much trouble turning a profit on this line IMHO, and will want to quickly consider the Delhi extension too.

They picked a good route to build the first HSR along. There could not have been a better option, except perhaps Chennai-Bluru , but Bom-Ahd has the benefit of enormous incremental gains upon extension to Delhi . Bom-Del HSR is as long as Beijing-Shanghai, and Del-Chennai as long as Beijing-Guangzhou . It will be an enormous travel boom when people can do Bom-Ahd in 1.5hrs from city center to city center . 4.5hrs from Del-Bom city centers. 8-9hrs for Del-Maa . There will be a fleet of bullet trains leaving Del and Maa between 9pm and midnight getting people to destination by breakfast time. The fastest ones should have just 2-3 stops max - perhaps Bluru, Hyderabad and Indore.

Otherwise do what the Tokaido Shinkansen does so pleasingly out of the last of the Tokyo stations (Shin-Yokohama) - crank it up to 320-350km/h for the next couple of hours. Heck, even the Tokaido line doesn’t go that fast, as Kashi said. But it does 275km/h continuously for an hour+ between Yokohama and Nagoya (Toyota HQ).

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Katare » 05 Nov 2017 02:40

An ly article criticizing a loan at 0.1% interest rate with 15 year grace perioD and 50 year term should be thrown in the garbage.

What if Japanese yen becomes worthless for some reason like Russian currency in late 1990s? Would we pay them couple of Rs 1000 notes for for their $30billion loan? There are safeguards built into deals against this kind of catastrophe and if Indian Rupee depreciates a lot India would have a lot more Rupees. In 1970, you could buy a flat in Mumbai for Rs 50K now it costs Rs 50000K yet there are a lit more buyer than in 1970.

As for the train occupancy levels, supply would generate it’s own demand, the progress and prosperity it’ll bring would incrementally increase demand for travel between greater Mumbai ( population equal to that of entire Australia) and Ahmadabad. It’s all good in my opinion!

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby disha » 05 Nov 2017 06:18

First do not trust #mediapimps

Mollick.R wrote:First this story appeared on media

40% seats on Mumbai-Ahmedabad trains go vacant: RTI reply

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/40-seats-on-mumbai-ahmedabad-trains-go-vacant-rti-reply-117103100908_1.html


If you leave mumbai central at 1 PM (13:00 hrs) after-noon for getting down at Surat., you will find 75% of the seats empty on the coach reserved specially for Surat. At Surat it does get filled up to a good degree for ppl getting down at Vadodara. But you will find vacant seats. At Vadodara, you will not be able to get down - reserved or not., people will climb aboard the train from all the open orifices of the coach. Including windows. At Anand there might be fist fights over a hand-kerchief or a comb which is strategically thrown to reserve a spot. It could be a standing spot near the toilet.

There are "uber kids" or "lyft kids" - basically college going kids who make some money getting on Vadodara and holding a spot for you when you come to board the train at Anand.

It is a mayhem after that time. Try going on trains leaving around 2 PM. Try 12941 Flying queen double decker from Dadar. If you like to travel relaxed., you will book your trip 3-4 days in advance., have your lunch at Dadar and travel to Mumbai Central and then catch the train at Mumbai Central. As of today., you have only @400 seats available for a trip 2 days later.

The business-standard article is BS

There are 65-72 trains running from mumbai metropolitan area (some days ppl travel to panvel and board the thiruvananthapuram-ahmedabad train) on an average. Saurashtra Mail and Saurashtra Mail Sleeper arrive at the same time at Ahmedabad. Of course for a #mediapimp that means a train collision. I will let you figure out how two trains can arrive at the same time at the same destination!!!

On Fridays., 10 trains arrive between 4:00 AM to 6:00 AM., that is 12 mins. on average apart. Between 6:30 to 7:00 AM there are 8 trains. That is a train averaging 4 mins. You are talking about 18 trains in a space of 3 hrs.

Ppl would have travelled overnight to arrive that early in Ahmedabad. The flow is reversed in the evening.

Consider yourself lucky if you can get from your spot and go and pee and come back to your spot and finding it vacant. Wait., consider yourself lucky that you could go and pee.

I would love all #mediapimps and particularly the female journos of uNDTV, BS, eCONomic times etc to make the travel while they are menstruating. They will feel embarrassed stinking up the whole coach., but no male or female or anybody will pass an adverse comment. Taking it all the assault on their sight, smell and space with a dignified stoicness.

And this are the very people who contribute to almost 50% of the India's export to the world.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Dipanker » 05 Nov 2017 09:01

Isn't the Data published in the Business Standard provided by Railways itself? So Railways is providing BS data? :roll:

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby JayS » 05 Nov 2017 09:13

Dipanker wrote:Isn't the Data published in the Business Standard provided by Railways itself? So Railways is providing BS data? :roll:


Its given as an answer to specific question, which does not give full picture. While the Mwdia used it out of context. Had IR known a priori what the RTI info will be used for, they perhaps would have given more comprehensive answer. Its not too far fetched to think that the whole excercise of putting RTI to use the info for motivated attack is not far-fetched given election season and politically bankrupt opposition devoid of good point.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby disha » 05 Nov 2017 13:35

There are lies, damned lies, statistics and BS. Media bordellos like Business Standard are indulging in BS.

I can claim that in future the HSR bullet trains plying between Bandra-Kurla-Complex and Ahmedabad will be 50% empty during part-peak times? How so?

Take the case of a bullet train arriving at 7:00 AM in Ahmedabad. It will start at 4:30 AM from BKC (assuming 2.5 hours end-to-end ride). From BKC to Surat., the HSR will be running half-empty. Or even more empty.

So will it be fair to say that BKC-Ahmedabad train runs half full? Or running half empty? Maybe an RTI enquiry with a twisted end purpose might be more useful!

Economically it will be better to run the trains often (and even half empty) rather than keep it idle waiting for optimum load. For peak times, one can implement surge pricing and for off-peak one can put in discounts.

====


How will bullet train achieve break even with high capital investment , less number of station & much higher fares (may lead to less users).



Since a poor person cannot afford Bullet train in interior of odisha or west bengal., let's not put a high fare bullet train between Mum/Ahmedabad.

Instead of raising an inane question., it is better to look at facts.

Compare the cost of HSR fares to air cost. Currently catching a IndiGo flight will cost you somewhere between Rs. 2500- Rs. 3500 one way. Of course you will have to book 2-3 days in advance and if you are lucky you will get the air ticket. If the HSR is priced at Rs. 2000/- all the air passengers will get on to the HSR.

The AC Chair currently is in waiting list for the next 2-3 days., but assuming you can get one - you will pay anything between 1500/- to 2000/- Rs. In a nutshell, the HSR can today charge Rs. 2250/- for a Mumbai (BKR) to Ahmedabad one way ticket.

So when a media bordello like the wire quotes a statement like:

A study carried out by IIM, Ahmedabad, indicated that a 100 daily trips would be required between Ahmedabad and Mumbai to make the bullet train financially viable. About 35 trips are reportedly being planned.


It should raise immediate red flags. There is the appeal to authority by quoting IIMA. Who did the study for IIMA? When was the study conducted? How was it conducted? Who funded it?

The above statement can be junk'ed from the fact that it is introduced after the premise of:

If the rupee’s purchasing power has dipped from 19.77 yen in 1985 to 1.72 yen today, then after 50 years can a rupee buy anything more than just a fraction of a yen?


The above statement precludes the possibility that the Rupee could as well re-evaluate upwards instead of de-valuating downwards. Nobody can predict the future., particularly the media bordellos*

Surajsan did link the IIMA study. It assumes Rs. 1500/- fifteen (15) years from the operation (say 2035) when the current fare on Shatabdi leaving Mumbai at 6:00 and arriving at Ahmedabad at 12:00 is already between Rs. 1500/- to Rs. 2000/- and already in waiting list. This is for one way. Today.

BTW., the IIMA says "100" trips., which is actually '100 one-way trips' or '50 return trips'. The number of trains today between Mum/Ahmedabad is 72 with 13 "chain trains" (you get down at Vadodara in middle of night to take a train to Ahmedabad for example the Dehradun express).

Of course the guys at IIMA themselves did not make any trip to Mumbai and back to realize what the reality is. Did the guys at IIMA not know that there are 129 trains plying between vasai rd/panvel/bandra/mumbai central to Vadodara

And BTW., some of the seats are on waiting list on 1st AC at @1700 Rs/- on some trains till Nov 24 - one way. It will be truly ache din if in 2035, the trip on HSR will cost Rs. 1500/- in 2035 - one way!!

*Media bordellos and #mediapimps need to be discredited matter-of-factly when they proceed with such illogic.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby pankajs » 05 Nov 2017 13:57

Mollick.R wrote:Few sites like Quint, The Wire, The Logical Indian is rabid anti BJP & anti namo so, I always take them with a bucket of salt, but this article written by Bishwajit Bhattacharyya (former additional solicitor general of India) has sown several doubts even for a hardliner NDA/NAMO supporter like me.

......................A study carried out by IIM, Ahmedabad, indicated that a 100 daily trips would be required between Ahmedabad and Mumbai to make the bullet train financially viable. About 35 trips are reportedly being planned.

Appeal to authority to make a point.

Either the arguments made by them make sense or they don't. It shouldn't be judged based on who made the point or what their qualifications are.

OR, one accepts the prescription like one does with a medical doctor i.e. no explanation required just accept their word and take the pill and chill. Keep the mind/logic out of the equation all together. That works too if that is what one wants.
So, can we not predict what fraction of a yen, Re 1 would buy after 50 years? If the rupee’s purchasing power has dipped from 19.77 yen in 1985 to 1.72 yen today, then after 50 years can a rupee buy anything more than just a fraction of a yen? Unlikely, unless yen interest rate shoots up and rupee rate becomes close to zero, which is highly improbable.
Why does this smell as bad economic logic?
Last edited by pankajs on 05 Nov 2017 14:15, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby chetak » 05 Nov 2017 14:11

^^^^^^^

Apart from the purely commercial aspects of the bullet train operations and its viability or not thereof, there are technology and human factor spinoffs that will be of greater value to the IR in the long run.

Improved track technology as well as better monitoring and maintenance systems, signalling, safety systems, skill bank development, manpower development, cross pollination of a fail safe operating culture into the existing system as well as large scale awareness of a modern railway operating system as opposed to a marginally improved manpower intensive antiquated british hand me down that we forcibly inherited and carefully preserved, much better than even the ASI has managed to preserve our ancient "monuments" and culture.

Surely the japs will have some skin in the game in terms of project and logistics management and the existing IR systems can not be ring fenced to avoid "malicious" foreign influence. Plus, the GE diesel engine contract which includes GE led maintenance will bring in improved diagnostics as well as modern testing facilities which can then be used to upgrade our own workshops in an intelligent monkey see monkey do way without paying royalties.

All in all, we still stand to gain much from the bullet train and also other projects.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby pankajs » 05 Nov 2017 14:50

pankajs wrote:
Mollick.R wrote:Few sites like Quint, The Wire, The Logical Indian is rabid anti BJP & anti namo so, I always take them with a bucket of salt, but this article written by Bishwajit Bhattacharyya (former additional solicitor general of India) has sown several doubts even for a hardliner NDA/NAMO supporter like me.

......................A study carried out by IIM, Ahmedabad, indicated that a 100 daily trips would be required between Ahmedabad and Mumbai to make the bullet train financially viable. About 35 trips are reportedly being planned.

Appeal to authority to make a point.

Either the arguments made by them make sense or they don't. It shouldn't be judged based on who made the point or what their qualifications are.

OR, one accepts the prescription like one does with a medical doctor i.e. no explanation required just accept their word and take the pill and chill. Keep the mind/logic out of the equation all together. That works too if that is what one wants.
So, can we not predict what fraction of a yen, Re 1 would buy after 50 years? If the rupee’s purchasing power has dipped from 19.77 yen in 1985 to 1.72 yen today, then after 50 years can a rupee buy anything more than just a fraction of a yen? Unlikely, unless yen interest rate shoots up and rupee rate becomes close to zero, which is highly improbable.
Why does this smell as bad economic logic?

This *expert* the one with some grand title, seems to have reversed the standard logic of markets/exchange rate. That is quite a feat! He seems to have surpassed Newton and Eisenstein and Buddha and Sankracharya combined in his knowledge of the unified theory of reality!
http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers ... e-rate.asp
All other factors being equal, higher interest rates in a country increase the value of that country's currency relative to nations offering lower interest rates

So let me quote this avatar of all knowing spirit that pervades this universe and beyond again. May I be forgiven in referencing his nectar like uttering again and again. I can only beg his indulgence.
So, can we not predict what fraction of a yen, Re 1 would buy after 50 years? If the rupee’s purchasing power has dipped from 19.77 yen in 1985 to 1.72 yen today, then after 50 years can a rupee buy anything more than just a fraction of a yen? Unlikely, unless yen interest rate shoots up and rupee rate becomes close to zero, which is highly improbable.

Does anyone notice that he has reversed the standard exchange rate logic?

He is saying "after 50 years can a rupee buy anything more than just a fraction of a yen?" Rupee will fall in value wrt Yen UNLESS "yen interest rate shoots up and rupee rate becomes close to zero". That is exactly the opposite of what standard exchange rate logic dictates i.e Rupee will fall in value wrt Yen WHEN "yen interest rate shoots up and rupee rate becomes close to zero" inline with investopedia's "higher interest rates in a country increase the value of that country's currency relative to nations offering lower interest rates".

BTW, this is NOT a simple word selection/usage mistake because he has used the above logic to build up the whole case of why we will end up paying double or triple or more times the borrowed amount in Rupee as just the principal repayment.

He ends with "which is highly improbable" i.e. to say "yen interest rate shoots up and rupee rate becomes close to zero" is improbable. If he is correct and yen interest rate remains close to zero [as it is now] or falls below zero and rupee interest rate remains high in comparison [even if it falls from the current rate], the standard exchange rate theory, "higher interest rates in a country increase the value of that country's currency relative to nations offering lower interest rates", predicts that Rupee should strengthen wrt Yen i.e. to say Rupee’s purchasing power will increase wrt Yen with time i.e. to say that India will have to put up smaller and smaller amount in Rupee to repay the a constant amount in Yen with time. Keep in mind the first portion of the investopedia quote "All other factors being equal". I have kept my analysis to this one factor he has relied upon to make his case.

Standard exchange rate logic leads us to the exact opposite of what he has tried to portray but who are we to dispute Sir Sir Sir Sir ... [Add as many as you think is appropriate. Perhaps throw in a couple of lordship's and a few his highness's into the mix too. I have kept it at 3+ because he seems to have transcended beyond Bhur, Bhuva and Svaha] Bishwajit Bhattacharyya (former additional solicitor general of India) who has surpassed Newton and Eisenstein and Buddha and Sankracharya combined in his knowledge of reality.

Also note his claim to knowledge beyond his earthly shackles i.e titles. He is certainly a realized spirit having broken beyond the bonds of titles, etc.

PS: Multiple edit for clarity.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby Karthik S » 07 Nov 2017 11:48

Bullet train to link Hyderabad with Amaravati

http://www.thehansindia.com/posts/index ... ati/337958

Hyderabad: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to announce the sanction of high-speed bullet train between Hyderabad and Amaravati, the new capital of Andhra Pradesh, during his visit to Hyderabad for the launch of much-awaited Metro Rail. Tentatively, Modi is scheduled to visit Hyderabad on November 27 or 28.

The proposal to link the Telangana and Andhra capitals through a high-speed train was already under active consideration before the Union government. The high-speed train would be developed parallel to the National Highway 65 (formerly NH 9) between Hyderabad and Vijayawada. The proposal was placed before the Union government following the Centre’s nod to the elevation of NH 65 as Express Highway as part of the creation of growth corridor between the two states.

A TRS MP told The Hans India that the Union ministry of Road Transport and National Highways was busy studying the feasibility of the high-speed train between the two states in coordination with the ministry of Railways. The preliminary reports prepared by the ministry hinted that the Centre will clear the proposal anytime.

The MP said the Prime Minister expressed interest in taking up the high-speed train between the two state capitals during a recent meeting with the ministries concerned. ‘’Modi is also keen to announce the project during his visit to Hyderabad,” he said.

As per the proposal the highway connecting Hyderabad and Vijayawada on the stretch of 270 km would be upgraded to eight lanes on a par with the Mumbai and Pune Expressway, the first express highway laid by the Union Ministry of Road Transport and Highways in the country.

Simultaneously, the works to lay tracks for high-speed train would also be taken up. Railways and Union ministry of Road Transport have already agreed in principle to the two proposals last year. The land acquisition for express highway was already completed during the upgradation of NH65 as a four-lane in 2010.

The main objective behind forwarding the two proposals is to increase road and rail connectivity between the two capital cities and create a growth corridor like the one coming up between Chennai and Bengaluru. The corridor between the two states would help in establishing more industrial zones and invite huge investments from the private sector, which would bolster the economies of both the states.


Never heard the site and the news, but good if true. Also, with Bang-Hyd, Hyd-Chennai line was looked into.

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Re: Indian Railways Thread (Dec 2015)

Postby disha » 07 Nov 2017 23:42

I have to with heavy heart and regrets admit that our beloved Fmr Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh., eminent economist who presided over enormous heights of corruption has indeed gone senile.

http://www.thehindu.com/elections/gujarat-2017/bullet-train-will-bypass-gujaratis/article19999129.ece

Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Tuesday slammed his successor, Narendra Modi, on the bullet train project, calling it an “exercise in vanity”. Dr Singh also criticised Mr. Modi for denigrating the past government while exaggerating his claims and his plans for the future.


&

Improve rail basics

“The bullet train project requires the creation of a parallel infrastructure while our existing passenger rail network is languishing and needs a dire infusion of funds to improve both safety and speed,” Dr. Singh said, underlining the past year’s series of rail accidents claiming the highest number of deaths in a decade.


Or follow the maxim: Never trust an eCONomist - particularly ones who are politically motivated.


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