Electric vehicle and power storage

[Cyrano]

"The reality is the economics of coal-fired power stations are being put under increasing, unsustainable pressure by cleaner and lower cost generation, including solar, wind and batteries," Origin Energy Chief Executive Frank Calabria said in a statement.

The amount of subsidies, seed funding, loans, low or no land rentals, tax breaks, committed purchase price KWh of renewables generated energy and a host of other favourable policies adopted over the years, by various Govts in Europe and US has totally skewed the real cost of RE to the consumer.

Most RE projects generate barely half of the projected theoretical output owing to seasonal and weather variations. If they were treated at par with conventional energy sources many of which have already amortised all or a significant part of the initial investment and their costs today are essentially running costs and maintenance (and cost of coal & fuel if not a hydro plant) - there is no way RE can pressure conventional energy on cost/KWh.

Plus, RE cannot power high intensity consumers like railways, industrial plants etc, and can mostly service households, small buildings, public lighting etc. Generally these consumers pay lower KWh prices than commercial enterprisees, which again goes against the claim.

So no matter who is making the quoted statement, its hard to defend as a universal truth.

[Aldonkar]

....
It is happening. Going the same way as solar power has rendered coal unable to compete. Most new addition is coming from solar, as it is 30% cheaper.
...
In a oil producing country like Norway 65% of the cars were 100% EV in 2021. The figures for Jan 2022 is 82%. People in Norway have a stong bying power, and are opting for EV, becase they can afford it (also there are some tax relaxations, but not subsidies).

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 022-01-03/


.

Norway has the highest penetration of EV in the world, not because solar is cheap but because hydropower is cheap. Norway is extremely deficient in solar power (I have visited it in summer) and many of the northern parts barely see the sun for six months in winter.

It is a small population with a lot of mountains most of which are bare being above the tree line, but great for collecting snow and ice which gives a lot of hydro potential. The Norwegians have harnessed this with numerous dams and were self sufficient in electric power even before oil was discovered in their waters. The price of electricity isl entirely in the control of the country.

They have invested the revenue from the oil industry and have a National fund to pay for things like state pensions and the health service, meaning that income tax is lower than in other western European states.

The relatively cheap cost of electricity (especially at night when industrial demand is low) and good disposable income has meant that middle class Norwegians can afford to spend on electric cars even though they are about 50% more expensive than IC (internal combustion) vehicles. Also relatively fewer Norwegians live is flats and high rise buildings making it easier for them to charge in their own drives or domestic garages.

[Vayutuvan]

@Rishirsihi ji, Norway is a special case. That needs to be drilled into everybody's head again and again and again.

[Rishirishi]

....
It is happening. Going the same way as solar power has rendered coal unable to compete. Most new addition is coming from solar, as it is 30% cheaper.
...
In a oil producing country like Norway 65% of the cars were 100% EV in 2021. The figures for Jan 2022 is 82%. People in Norway have a stong bying power, and are opting for EV, becase they can afford it (also there are some tax relaxations, but not subsidies).

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 022-01-03/


.

Norway has the highest penetration of EV in the world, not because solar is cheap but because hydropower is cheap. Norway is extremely deficient in solar power (I have visited it in summer) and many of the northern parts barely see the sun for six months in winter.

It is a small population with a lot of mountains most of which are bare being above the tree line, but great for collecting snow and ice which gives a lot of hydro potential. The Norwegians have harnessed this with numerous dams and were self sufficient in electric power even before oil was discovered in their waters. The price of electricity isl entirely in the control of the country.

They have invested the revenue from the oil industry and have a National fund to pay for things like state pensions and the health service, meaning that income tax is lower than in other western European states.

The relatively cheap cost of electricity (especially at night when industrial demand is low) and good disposable income has meant that middle class Norwegians can afford to spend on electric cars even though they are about 50% more expensive than IC (internal combustion) vehicles. Also relatively fewer Norwegians live is flats and high rise buildings making it easier for them to charge in their own drives or domestic garages.

Norway is a part of a free trading electricity scheme in northern EU. During the slow times in night, solar, wind and coal power is used to pump wanter in the hydro electric dams, which are used as batteries. But this has nothing to do with the penetration of EV.

EV's are extremely popular in Norway, because people have strong purchasing power. In Short EV's are faster, quieter, smother, cheaper and require less maintenance. So why would people want to purchase a noisy, slow, ICE vehicle with hundreds of extra parts. The local government is also happy to see the pollution come down. EV's are a no brainer. Who would want to take a standard auto, if EV auto is available at lower cost. Can't understand why people are hung up with old outdated technology.

[Rishirishi]

Norway has how many cars per capita? They are a mere 5 million country.



Eh?!!! Where is this 100% coming from? This one is from 11 months back. Are you saying that the increase is going to be exponential?

Well the figures for Jan 2022 was 83,3% EV, 2,2% for Diesel, 2,7%for Petrol and 11,4% for hybrid (battery+gasoline).
I guess you can call the growth exponential.

[Vayutuvan]

We are still talking about Norway, a country with a 50 lac population and 20 lac cars? That is 1 car per 2.1people. You, Rishirishi ji, is projecting the same to happen throughout the world, that too by 2024?!!!

Also, what with this "old outdated technology"? If that technology is good enough for most people, why would people switch? Just for the sake of "looking good" to your peers as in "virtue signaling"? There is a sweet spot between how much extra money you are willing to spend to make yourself more attractive to potential mates and the quality/number of potential mates. In nature, it happens in terms of how much energy a male animal/bird/reptile is willing to expend to attract potential mates and spread their genes. The same principle works in our society as well.

[Mort Walker]

No worries. Some people on this forum are wealthy investors whose family income isn’t dependent on a salary. They are not power system electrical engineers, nor have any engineering experience in powering large industrial facilities. Their world view is simple. Use solar and batteries and throw everything else away. Why buy a used $30K ICE vehicle when you should buy a $80K EV? If you don’t have money for daal and roti, then have mutton biryani instead.

[chaitanya]

^ Mortji, on this last point, how economical is the ‘battery swap’ concept that the current budget is trying to push? Do you know what kind of batteries they are going for?

[Mort Walker]

^ Mortji, on this last point, how economical is the ‘battery swap’ concept that the current budget is trying to push? Do you know what kind of batteries they are going for?

The battery swap is a smart move. It basically eliminates imports, or assembly within country, of motorcycles and cars with fixed batteries. It does raise cost of EVs, but the consumer is far better off in the long run. Batteries are the major cost of EVs. As battery technology evolves away from liquid electrolyte chemistries, old batteries can be recycled.
The consumer does not have to spend lots of money on residential rewiring for high current connections, nor spend hours at charging stations. They swap batteries in 10-15 minutes and move along. Much like getting a tyre fixed.

It slows down wholesale dumping of cheap 2 wheelers from China and killing India’s domestic industry.

[chaitanya]

Interesting, thanks for that information! The last point about the wholesale dumping of cheap EVs from China is a great point. India needs to go towards as much energy independence as possible. I do not believe India has much in the way of lithium

[Vayutuvan]

Interesting, thanks for that information! The last point about the wholesale dumping of cheap EVs from China is a great point. India needs to go towards as much energy independence as possible. I do not believe India has much in the way of lithium

India, or for that matter any country outside of the US, China, and possibly Russia (let us wait and see if Putin had bit off more than he can swallow), any other comparable population countries can achieve 100% independence. There is no source for polymers but oil and gas industry, AFAIK.

There is some research going on to grow GM plants that yield plastic-like materials. IDK whether they have crossed some of the varieties with rubber trees. Googling will yield some results on Google scholar. One can go reference chasing from there.

[Rishirishi]

We are still talking about Norway, a country with a 50 lac population and 20 lac cars? That is 1 car per 2.1people. You, Rishirishi ji, is projecting the same to happen throughout the world, that too by 2024?!!!

Also, what with this "old outdated technology"? If that technology is good enough for most people, why would people switch? Just for the sake of "looking good" to your peers as in "virtue signaling"? There is a sweet spot between how much extra money you are willing to spend to make yourself more attractive to potential mates and the quality/number of potential mates. In nature, it happens in terms of how much energy a male animal/bird/reptile is willing to expend to attract potential mates and spread their genes. The same principle works in our society as well.

EV's are not about image, but about the product. Much better to drive, less maintenance, less noise, less smoke, and cheaper to run. But so far they have been out of reach for the vast majority of people, because of costs. Very few people can afford a 30-40 lack car, when the same model can be had for 15 for the ice model. But prices are coming down very fast. prices have come down from 668 dollars per kwh to 137 dollars, and are expected to reach 60-70 within a few years. With that rice ICE cars and EV's will only be 1-2 lacks expensive. But the car will be much more economical to run. for 1 unit of electricity, it will be able to run from 4-6 km. That gives approx RS 2 per km.
We on this discussion forum are very concerned with the geopolitical issues in the region. Oil imports remains a major strategic problem. The importbill is over 100 billion dollars. Imagine how much development can be done with that. With solar panels, EV's and some pro active government India can get rid of the import bill, cut pollution and give people a better product.

[Rishirishi]

^ Mortji, on this last point, how economical is the ‘battery swap’ concept that the current budget is trying to push? Do you know what kind of batteries they are going for?

Elon Musk and many other have made careful calculations. The battery swap thing works out uneconomical. As the battery prices are coming down, it will be better to have a battery sufficient for a full day charge. A battery of 50Kwh in a medium size car will give approx 300km range. At current prices such a car would cost 20lacks (exclusive of taxes, in the international market). Expect this to come down to approx 15 lacks. The extra cost of 50KWh EV (battery with electric motor - ICE motor) will be approx 2 lacks.

A car the size of Wagon R and range of 180 km could do with a battery pack of 35Kwh, and cost about the same as an ICE car. A workable solution if GOI build 5-10 000 charging stations (a charging station every 25Km would be nice). Even at 2 crore per charging station it is "only" 20 000 crores. A lot of money but only $ 2,5 billion (2,5% of the oil import bill)

[kit]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c2c3 ... 9b2f136beb

China has found lithium near the everest.. now..

[Vayutuvan]

Elon Musk and many other have made careful calculations.

Why this penchant for either/or argument from folks like you who are all in for EVs, hain ji?!

If one can have many charging stations for battery-integrated EVs, the same stations can easily maintain a stack of battery packs that can go into battery pack EVs as well. The capital expenditure will be incremental.

All said and done, car ownership itself might be a thing of the past in a few years. Why own a car when one can get (almost) on-demand public transportation?!

[Vayutuvan]

hgupta ji has gone quiet.

[Mort Walker]

hgupta ji has gone quiet.

If you read between the lines of his posts, you will see he is heavily invested in small scale RES on the east or west coast. He talks about rolling blackouts which happen in the 3rd world pooping hell holes like California, not India. The US grid because of RES has become unreliable and more people are resorting to generators and solar panels.

[hgupta]

No, I don't favor fossil fuel power plants. I favor biogas-powered trucks/automobiles and co-located power generation facilities. CH4-based H fuel cell-powered autos are competitive vis-a-vis EVs

You are arguing for either/or which is false dichotomy unless one is fully invested in EVs and battery tech.

That said, you are yet to answer my question on embodied energy. You are the one who has to give figures on that. I have done my homework already. Did you go to the website I posted? If you are seriously interested, I can arrange for you to visit the prototype plant. It is in Pune, India. Commerical plants are coming up by the end of this year. One which is going to up even before the end of the year is smaller one right now operating at 1 TPD but will go to 2.5 TPD in 2-3 months. It is in Rohtak. Sign an NDA and be my guest.

There is not enough supply of indigenous methane to meet India’s growing energy needs. Besides I have yet to see a CH4-based H fuel cell-powered auto in the offering. You are projecting a yet to be proven or even produced technology as the immediate solution to India’s problems whereas we have produced technology that 3 of the biggest car markets (USA, EU, and China) have taken up. Moreover, to ensure a steady supply of methane, you would have to engage in double production just to get the hydrogen out. First you have to produce methane which requires extraction of methane and then you have to engage methane in combustion to extract hydrogen out. As a whole, it is less energy efficient than you would think. In fact in electric vehicles, we extract more energy out of electricity and is more energy efficient.

Furthermore, using biogas only makes sense when you are trying to maximize the gain out of food you are already producing and extracting as much value out of the byproducts of food production. Iowa farmers tried to make their corn as the basis for biogas and create an alternative to petroleum based gas such as E85 but we soon found out that it didn’t make economic sense in the long run because the gain was not worth it. In fact, E85 produce less energy on a per basis with regular gasoline. Therefore to substitute E85 for gasoline does not make sense in the long run. It only makes sense as an supplementary measure to alleviate the demand for imported oil but not as a substitute for oil.

I did check your website out. It looks good. But the truth is that you will not be able to get sufficient waste mass to produce the energy that India requires. Therefore, it is only useful as a supplementary measure to solar, wind, nuclear, and hydro power.

You think I am engaging in false dichotomy which is not true. I am engaging in what is better technology in the long and makes the most sense. However you should ask Mort Walker about his constant engagement in false dichotomy when it comes to EVs. He's pretty much very much against renewable energy and thinks that coal is the end all solution for India's energy issues.

EVs and renewable energy to me makes the most sense in the long run because it gives us the maximum benefits that we seek. We do not have to depend on oil imports and by creating an EV industry, we also encourage widespread electrification of the nation which means reliable 24/7 supply of electricity which can be used to power other things besides EVs.

When I look at the hydrogen model and compare it to the EV model, I see that the EV model comes out on top in the long run. We do not have enough capital to invest in both. Based on that, I see EV technology as the horse to bet on.

I wish you all the best in your endeavor with the aforementioned plant. It is a worthy endeavor but I do not think that this will be sufficient to solve all our problems.

better to develop coal gasification technology and electrify the train network 100%. is that feasible economically? IDK.

Coal gasification is not economically feasible due to the fact that India does not have superior coal quality and is only economically feasible if the price of natural gas is high. And it does require extensive capital investments in the billions to be useful whereas you don’t need billions of dollars to set up small to medium size solar/wind power farms and you don’t need to invest in transportation systems to haul the coal. Solar/wind power offer better bang for the buck than coal gasification and that is why you don’t even see coal companies taking up the idea of coal gasification in the US or in Australia where they have larger coal reserves than India and whose quality are more superior than Indian coal.

If you mean by "pain", investment then please show me the money. As I said before we already have the technology for CH4. Investment money is hard to come by. "Mastering" is not like turning on a switch which in a few months produce Tech savvy people in droves who will then start designing what India needs. We need the manufacturing base, tech manpower, and a whole raft of other resources.

As of now, after a gestation period of 70 years, our engineering college graduates (majority of them) can design and operate coal-fired power plants, build bridges, and such. Tech manpower across the board - from top management to engineering to technicians - need to be trained for the change in the paradigm.

So you still advocate that India remain in the 20th century while the rest of the world moves forward in the 21st century and make products that nobody outside of India wants? Take a look at China. Even though China has the most coal power plants, they are investing massively in EV technology so they can be the leader and dominate the field in EV. If India waits too long, India will not be able to catch up and lose out. So yeah, I advocate embracing the pain now to avoid the even larger pain of being behind everyone else and producing products that nobody wants.

hgupta ji has gone quiet.

My apologies for having a life and tending to one’s own daily needs and duties instead of being glued to the forum day by day and obsessing over some posts.

[hgupta]

hgupta ji has gone quiet.

If you read between the lines of his posts, you will see he is heavily invested in small scale RES on the east or west coast. He talks about rolling blackouts which happen in the 3rd world pooping hell holes like California, not India. The US grid because of RES has become unreliable and more people are resorting to generators and solar panels.

Thank you for demonstrating again on what you do not know.

[hgupta]

Vayutuvan,

in response to your other posts about the EVs and market share in Norway, please take a look at this link: https://insideevs.com/news/551755/europ ... tober2021/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_e ... _in_Europe

https://theicct.org/publication/update- ... an-cities/

This shows that the market share increase is not confined to Norway. It is pretty much happening everywhere in the EU even in Poland.

[hgupta]

Vayutuvan,

upon further thoughts on the biogas plants, they are certainly useful but they won't be able to be the mainstay of the energy production because of one issue: collecting enough biomass to ensure a steady supply on a 24/7 basis. It is much harder than it looks. Think of the last mile problem and collecting biomass from every corner of India. You will see that the complexity of collecting biomass multiply as the need for energy goes up.

However it doesn't mean we can't do biogas plants. I see them as very useful supplementary systems to renewable energy sources, i.e., assist in production of energy when the sun doesn't shine or the wind doesn't blow or there is not enough water in the reservoir to keep generating power and you need power to keep going. That is when biomass/gas plants should kick in ideally and produce power on behalf of the renewable power plants that can't produce power at that moment and keep the electric grid stable and from being brownout or blackouts.

[hgupta]

^ Mortji, on this last point, how economical is the ‘battery swap’ concept that the current budget is trying to push? Do you know what kind of batteries they are going for?

Tesla tried it out and made it as one of the selling point back in 2017 or 2018 (can't exactly remember) and China tried it out recently. They stopped doing it after a while. What does that tell you?

My guess is that it was too expensive to do a battery swap because in order to do a battery swap, you would have to guarantee the functioning of the battery and ensure that it would not blow up and if there was something wrong with it, you would have to guarantee the replacement of that battery. Therefore, it end up costing more to ensure that you swap out a good battery when you accepted a depleted battery. Also there is the cost of doing a battery swap. It costed like 3-4 times what it costed to recharge the battery and most customers simply opted to wait and recharge the batteries or time their recharging in a way that they could afford to wait for the recharging. And it was simply more cost effective to build out more EV charging stations and introduce higher charging technology that would shorten the charging time and charge a bit more for faster charging than do battery swaps.

Here is a good primer on why it never really took off. https://spectrum.ieee.org/ev-battery-sw ... -good-idea

[hgupta]

"The reality is the economics of coal-fired power stations are being put under increasing, unsustainable pressure by cleaner and lower cost generation, including solar, wind and batteries," Origin Energy Chief Executive Frank Calabria said in a statement.

The amount of subsidies, seed funding, loans, low or no land rentals, tax breaks, committed purchase price KWh of renewables generated energy and a host of other favourable policies adopted over the years, by various Govts in Europe and US has totally skewed the real cost of RE to the consumer. Most RE projects generate barely half of the projected theoretical output owing to seasonal and weather variations. If they were treated at par with conventional energy sources many of which have already amortised all or a significant part of the initial investment and their costs today are essentially running costs and maintenance (and cost of coal & fuel if not a hydro plant) - there is no way RE can pressure conventional energy on cost/KWh.

I could make the same argument for the subsidies given out to fossil fuel companies. Fossil fuel companies have received more subsidies than renewable energy companies ever did on a 25:1 basis.

Take a look at the following links for an accurate picture of how much subsidies fossil fuel companies get:

https://e360.yale.edu/digest/fossil-fue ... port-finds

https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-s ... etal-costs

https://generation180.org/the-absurd-tr ... subsidies/

With respect to Austrialia, Australia has one of the most coal friendly PM and regulatory environment for coal. Yet despite all that favorable conditions and massive support from the government, the largest coal power plant could not continue to thrive. What does that tell you? It is time to see the writing on the wall.

When you include large scale batteries in the mix, RE overcome these issues you mentioned. Furthermore, please take a look at this following graph:

https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/hires/2 ... rgyuse.jpg

See the wasted energy loss we have in producing electricity? This is three times the energy we get for electricity across all sectors and even after throwing in natural gas, it still outweighs by 2 times. This graph shows me that once we start introducing large scale battery plants, we can massively reduce the energy loss in producing the electricity because battery plants lose about 12-20%, i.e., have somewhere between 80 to 88% efficiency compared to steam generators or ICE generators which only provide at its best, 40% efficiency. The common efficiency mark is around 20% for most ICE engines. You may argue that steam turbines are very efficient at 90% but you have not factor in the heat loss which occurs when you burn coal or gas to generate heat that turns water into steam.

Further take a look at this link where it shows the energy required to put in for the production of fossil fuel https://greentransportation.info/energy ... -6kwh.html

What it goes to show that by continuing on the fossil fuel path, we remain inefficient in terms of producing power and continue to waste energy in heat loss, transmission loss, and engine efficiency loss. If we convert to the renewable energy sources and EV, we can start reducing our inefficiencies on a large scale and energy becomes ever more affordable in the long run. We have had over 100 years with fossil fuel technology and we are plateauing at wringing more efficiency and power out of those on a per unit basis.

[Mort Walker]

The reality is what India is doing. Just check the CEA website. India will use solar and wind for peak load and coal for base load. Coal will make up 2/3 of all energy produced for electricity. One can argue about large scale batteries or what some other country is doing and it means NOTHING in the Indian context. Look at GoI policy and CEA trends and it will tell you where the country is headed until 2030. The rest is all mental masturbation.

[Rishirishi]

The reality is what India is doing. Just check the CEA website. India will use solar and wind for peak load and coal for base load. Coal will make up 2/3 of all energy produced for electricity. One can argue about large scale batteries or what some other country is doing and it means NOTHING in the Indian context. Look at GoI policy and CEA trends and it will tell you where the country is headed until 2030. The rest is all mental masturbation.

Yehh sure. Why go for cheap clean solar power, when you can purchase expensive coal power. With, nuclear, wind and pumped hydro, I hope they shut down the coal plants as soon as possible. There should be Harm tax put on all polluting things like coal and diesel. The funds should be used to compensate the people who suffer from respiratory issues.

What i fail to figure out is the die hard anti RES stance.

[Mort Walker]

^^^Take a look at what GoI is doing. The numbers are there and it does NOT matter what anyone’s opinion is. Let reality of energy production sink in and try to understand that. If you’re an unqualified person who hasn’t worked with power systems, you can believe any fairy tale.

[Rishirishi]

^^^Take a look at what GoI is doing. The numbers are there and it does NOT matter what anyone’s opinion is. Let reality of energy production sink in and try to understand that. If you’re an unqualified person who hasn’t worked with power systems, you can believe any fairy tale.

If your qualification is outdated, then it might be good to education yourself.

Here is a start.




https://www.india-briefing.com/news/ele ... 1872.html/

https://evreporter.com/ev-sales-trend-i ... 0vehicles.

Electric vehicles sales in India to touch 1 million units this year: SMEV
Sales of total electric vehicles in India are expected to be around 10 lakh units this year, equal to what was sold collectively in the last 15 years, SMEV said

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 509_1.html

[Vayutuvan]

It is much harder than it looks. Think of the last mile problem and collecting biomass from every corner of India. You will see that the complexity of collecting biomass multiply as the need for energy goes up.

So it is a no to my invitation. That is OK. We can revisit next year.

Meanwhile please do quantify what you mean by "complexity ... multiply"? I can make neither head nor tail. That can apply to anything. By "multiply" you mean if we need two times the energy we need two times the biomass? But that is just linear growth in complexity. Or are you hinting at something else? some kind of exponential growth? If so, why?

Very strange that you think that the same doesn't apply to battery technology and EVs, power transmission, networks of charging stations, co-expansion of infrastructure like road, and uptake of EVs themselves.

There are many limiting factors that will start interacting once you go beyond some puny country like Norway.

CC @Rishirishi

[Vayutuvan]

hgupta (since you are not putting the honorific, I am dropping) ji

Please get yourself educated about the difference between renewable and sustainable. Biogas is sustainable. In fact, it is the only sustainable energy resource. None of the others are. Minerals, metals, mining, and highly skilled workforce. Limits of physical resources will be the first limits reached.

We have solved the last mile problem. Wait till next year.

If I may ask, what is your background? In another thread on BRF you said you have BS in CS with a JD. So no engg., I take it? Have you taken any courses in Numerical Analysis? Mathematical Programming? Management Sciences (Logistics, Supply Chain Mgmt. and/or PPC/Inventory Control), Economics?

You are mixing up Ethanol (E85) with Biogas - Methane. Syngas is a different beast as well. In the US, Biomass is used as animal feed. Biogas is not economically feasible in the US as the factory beef farms pay more this input.

In India, rice straw is being burnt creating largescale pollution in nearby cities. I am sure (IDK now after reading your posts but let me give you the benefit of doubt) you have read about the stubble-burning in Punjab at the end of the paddy season which affects Delhi air quality enormously.

A similar situation exists to some extent or the other in other parts of India as well. Delhi being Delhi, their woes get a lot of attention.

Ethanol has no economic viability anywhere in the world but the US has to keep the farmers in business and hence GOTUS gives subsidies. It is a boon doggle. I know because I live right in the middle of sq miles upon sq miles of cornfields and soy farms.

[Vayutuvan]

hgupta

So you still advocate that India remain in the 20th century while the rest of the world moves forward in the 21st century and make products that nobody outside of India wants? Take a look at China. Even though China has the most coal power plants, they are investing massively in EV technology so they can be the leader and dominate the field in EV. If India waits too long, India will not be able to catch up and lose out. So yeah, I advocate embracing the pain now to avoid the even larger pain of being behind everyone else and producing products that nobody wants."

1. Are you proposing that India compete with China in manufacturing? IOW, replace China as the factory of the world?

2. China has advantages India doesn't.

3. If you don't quantify "too long", it is difficult to say whether India wants to wait "too long". You might be surprised if I say that Indian politicians of all stripes in addition to the tycoons are well aware of what needs to be done and are acting as we speak.

Think of any large entity as a complex system that reacts to external stimuli. The smaller the entity, the easier it is to make the system behave the way you want it to behave. Larger the system harder it is due to the curse of dimensionality. Internal and external linkages, feedback loops, and inertia need to be taken into account.

[Vayutuvan]

Vayutuvan,

in response to your other posts about the EVs and market share in Norway, please take a look at this link: https://insideevs.com/news/551755/europ ... tober2021/

Norway is an atypical country. 5 million population, a $1 trillion fund, plenty of oil, homogenous "well-behaved" population with a majority Christian, and low population density.

They were never sacked and subjugated by rapacious Islamic invaders nor under the uncaring native hating of colonial powers of Europe.

[Vayutuvan]

^ Mortji, on this last point, how economical is the ‘battery swap’ concept that the current budget is trying to push? Do you know what kind of batteries they are going for?

Tesla tried it out and made it as one of the selling point back in 2017 or 2018 (can't exactly remember) and China tried it out recently. They stopped doing it after a while. What does that tell you?

It tells us that they were not smart enough and/or they didn't try hard enough.

My guess is that it was too expensive to do a battery swap because in order to do a battery swap, you would have to guarantee the functioning of the battery and ensure that it would not blow up and if there was something wrong with it, you would have to guarantee the replacement of that battery.

Three Ds of engg. - design, design, design.

If you bring some tech to the market before its time, then you will lose in the long run unless you are able to impose your design as the standard on the world. Only very few people have that kind of pull. Tesla is not one of them nor the many Chinese state-supported copycat battery/EV companies.

Tesla's success is not a given irrespective of how much some of you in CA, expat Eurotrash, and Euros themselves want it. Not gonna happen.

[hgupta]

hgupta (since you are not putting the honorific, I am dropping) ji

Whatever floats your boat. It doesn't bother me.

Please get yourself educated about the difference between renewable and sustainable. Biogas is sustainable. In fact, it is the only sustainable energy resource. None of the others are. Minerals, metals, mining, and highly skilled workforce. Limits of physical resources will be the first limits reached.

You would think biofuel is sustainable. It is not. You have to ensure that you have healthy soil with sufficient nutrients to grow food you want and need. There comes a diminishing return when you try to convert valuable farmland into crops that does nothing but serve as fuel for biofuel as those Iowa farmers discover. And for biogas, you would need to ensure a steady supply of food to keep those animals that produce manure and that create its own set of issues.

With wind and solar, you have way more than ample supply. The only issue is capturing those energy and converting them into electricity. You mention minerals, metals, and mining. Yes right now they serve as the main raw materials for wind and solar but the world are turning into other materials that are more plentiful. Heck an engineering student from Philippines came up with an invention of using food waste and waste crops into solar panels.

See here:
https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/02/ ... rect-light

That said, even if we import the raw materials, they are not consumption per se but converted into 20 year durable goods and which can be recycled to some extent. In that manner, I see the importation of raw materials the same thing as importing iron and other minerals and making goods out of them. Japan doesn't have large reserves of iron but they have a bigger economy than us because they produce highly refined machine goods and such and cultivated a highly skilled workforce which is a big boon to the economy.

We have solved the last mile problem. Wait till next year.

Oh really? I would be very curious how that turns out. You have solved the complexity of collecting enough supply from various sources that produce waste? If so, that is an engineering feat in itself. Are you doing this like small to medium scaled plant in localized settings not like a central setting where you have a feeder system but you situate each plant to each location? Are you thinking about creating waste collection companies or co ops where you have independent people collecting trash and you pay them by the kilograms?

If I may ask, what is your background? In another thread on BRF you said you have BS in CS with a JD. So no engg., I take it? Have you taken any courses in Numerical Analysis? Mathematical Programming? Management Sciences (Logistics, Supply Chain Mgmt. and/or PPC/Inventory Control), Economics?

I have an engineering background in computer engineering. I worked for several Fortune 500 companies and have engaged in various complex engineering projects that require engineering skills. However I decided to change track due to different reasons and go into law. I am not sure what you are trying to get at.

You are mixing up Ethanol (E85) with Biogas - Methane. Syngas is a different beast as well. In the US, Biomass is used as animal feed. Biogas is not economically feasible in the US as the factory beef farms pay more this input.

I brought Ethanol as an example of biofuel and why biofuel does not really work. Yes biogas is different from biofuel in the sense that it is generated through the anaerobic digestion. I get that. You may be thinking of using cow manure and food waste to produce methane. Using biogas is certainly environmentally friendly and I got nothing against using biogas but it is not the panacea as you make it out to be. I know this. we have a landfill nearby that is one of the largest in the state if not in the nation and there is a methane capture plant on there and it does produce energy but nowhere on the level needed. It takes in 3500 tons of waste per day and based on that it generates 11 MW of energy and feed it back into the electrical grid which means powering about 10k homes and that landfill serves a population of over 2 million people.

You may be arguing that we have enough supply to meet India's needs. For example, a cow produce about 12 tons of dung a year or 30 kg a day. 1 kg of cow dung produces 40 liters of gas so 40X30 gets you 1200 liters of gas. Multiply that by 300 million cows and you get 360 billion liters of biogas a day. Right now India consumes about 850 million liters of gas for cars a day. So yippee! Yay! our problems are solved! Not really. There are a lot of factors that go into production of biogas and collection of manure, timely capture of methane before decomposing and ideal temperature being several of them. And one liter of biogas does not equal one liter of gasoline in terms of energy content. For example, ideally, you need about 37 degrees celsius or higher to generate biogas efficiently from manure and food waste. See here: https://www.solarcities.eu/content/how- ... an-you-get

For a good primer on how biogas plant works, see here: https://www.solarcities.eu/content/how- ... an-you-get.

According to the link above, 132 tons of waste produce approx. 5.5M liters which translates into 625 kWh/h or 15000kWh a day. So 12 tons produced per year multiply by 300 million cows gets you 3.6 billion tons of manure which gets you 409 billion kWhs a year. Right now India consumes 1.176 trillion kWh and that consumption need is projected to triple in the next 10-15 years.

In India, rice straw is being burnt creating largescale pollution in nearby cities. I am sure (IDK now after reading your posts but let me give you the benefit of doubt) you have read about the stubble-burning in Punjab at the end of the paddy season which affects Delhi air quality enormously.

yes I am familiar with that issue. Right now India produces 352 million tons of rice stubble a year. Based on the link I provided above, that gets you around 40 billion kWh a year which barely makes a dent in India's electrical consumption. Hardly a panacea for India's energy issues. However converting rice stubble is a great way of reducing pollution massively and provides more income to Indian farmers at the same time while providing an extra bit of energy. I see nothing wrong with that. However it is not enough. We need more.

RIght now we are using coal but we are seeing the limitations of coal right now. With RE sources, we can overcome those limitations and generate more power at a cheaper scale and at a scale where we don't see destruction of India's environment and landscape and suffer poor air quality.

Ethanol has no economic viability anywhere in the world but the US has to keep the farmers in business and hence GOTUS gives subsidies. It is a boon doggle. I know because I live right in the middle of sq miles upon sq miles of cornfields and soy farms.

Then we are in similar agreement.

1. Are you proposing that India compete with China in manufacturing? IOW, replace China as the factory of the world?

2. China has advantages India doesn't.

3. If you don't quantify "too long", it is difficult to say whether India wants to wait "too long". You might be surprised if I say that Indian politicians of all stripes in addition to the tycoons are well aware of what needs to be done and are acting as we speak.

Think of any large entity as a complex system that reacts to external stimuli. The smaller the entity, the easier it is to make the system behave the way you want it to behave. Larger the system harder it is due to the curse of dimensionality. Internal and external linkages, feedback loops, and inertia need to be taken into account.

In response:

1. Why not? That's what Modi and this government are trying to do. Present an alternative to the world besides China.
2. So what? That is what technology is for. To overcome advantages of others and your own disadvantages. That is why I see RE as a long term solution for India. It allows India to overcome its disadvantages and other countries' advantage and be ahead.
3. in 2005, US was the world leader in producing solar panels. Manufacturing of solar panels in China was nonexistent and same thing in India. Ten years later, China is number one and killing every of its competitors out in the rest of the world, including India. Not only that, China is busy pouring billions of dollars into R&D in creating smarter grids to cater to the RE sources so as to derive maximum benefits. Now these chinese products are being shipped to everywhere in the world at a grand scale that India is finding hard to match. Wait five years too long, India might as well throw in the towel and start accepting CHinese goods because Chinese manufacturers are already far ahead. A good example to compare to would be the semiconductor industry. India cannot even compete with China or South Korea and is still very far behind. It would take massive investments just to get on the page if not even the same page but a couple pages back.

Norway is an atypical country. 5 million population, a $1 trillion fund, plenty of oil, homogenous "well-behaved" population with a majority Christian, and low population density.

They were never sacked and subjugated by rapacious Islamic invaders nor under the uncaring native hating of colonial powers of Europe.

I really don't get your point you are trying to make. I thought your point was that the stats for Norway didn't apply to rest of Europe. I brought out that graph to show that you are seeing the same trend in the rest of Europe as you see in Norway with respect to adoption of EVs.

Three Ds of engg. - design, design, design. If you bring some tech to the market before its time, then you will lose in the long run unless you are able to impose your design as the standard on the world. Only very few people have that kind of pull. Tesla is not one of them nor the many Chinese state-supported copycat battery/EV companies.

I beg your pardon. Tesla does exactly have that pull. Before Tesla there was no EV market. It was practically nonexistent. It was all due to Tesla that an EV market was created on a grand scale. For better or worse, Tesla is the leader in the EV market by a long mile and everybody is racing trying to catch up to Tesla and follows closely to whatever Tesla does. OTA updates? That was Tesla first. Autonomous driving as a feature? That was Tesla. EV charging stations? That was Tesla.

Sure Tesla's idea about battery swap didn't work out. But that doesn't mean they didn't try their best to make it work. You may say design, design, design but I also say economics, economics, economics. What works in design may not work out in the real world. You may create the perfect battery swap but as the link that I gave you gave another reason. It was simply more economical and better to build more EV charging stations with faster charging times than to implement battery swap on a wide scale and they saw better returns in putting more R&D into faster charging batteries than in battery swap technology.

Tesla's success is not a given irrespective of how much some of you in CA, expat Eurotrash, and Euros themselves want it. Not gonna happen.

I do not get your intense dislike/hatred for Europeans nor do I care for it. Let's continue debating without devolving into name calling as certain posters are wont to do.

[Mort Walker]

Rishirishi ji,

That is all natural growth and will remain small for many years, but that’s okay. When you get your magic solar bus that can travel 1,000 KM in a 30 second charge, I will be happy to take a ride. Cheers.

[hgupta]

Rishirishi ji,

That is all natural growth and will remain small for many years, but that’s okay. When you get your magic solar bus that can travel 1,000 KM in a 30 second charge, I will be happy to take a ride. Cheers.

Are you willing to ride a petroleum based bus right now? diesel bus? What kind of bus are you willing to travel right now?

[Vayutuvan]

hgupta

Who is talking about collecting cow manure? In any case, we are not on the same page. So I am done with you for now.

I have to take care of some urgent business for the next few months.

As for Eurotrash, it is a thing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurotrash_(term)

"Eurotrash" is a term for certain Europeans, particularly those perceived to be socialites, stylish and affluent. Eurotrash is often used as a collective term for such European expatriates in the United States or other areas with a concentration of wealthy Europeans.

I don't think it is derogatory. It does capture the entitled supercilious attitude of some Euro-expats. These are the people who tend to dominate Paris Climate Accord and such and quick to give moral lectures to the colonies.

[hgupta]

hgupta

Who is talking about collecting cow manure? In any case, we are not on the same page. So I am done with you for now.

I have to take care of some urgent business for the next few months.

Cow manure is one of the biggest sources of methane and therefore a source for biogas. I thought it would be natural to include cow manure because we have the largest population of cattle and given your remarks about biogas and how there being a large source of supply for biogas it seems logical to include cow manure in our discussions.

In any case good luck with your trip.

[Vayutuvan]

Cow manure is one of the biggest sources of methane.

That is true only because of the beef industry. If beef consumption is reduced voluntarily, no factory farms and no methane problem from cow dung. No eutrophication of water sources. A healthier citizenry frees up resources from healthcare.

[hgupta]

Cow manure is one of the biggest sources of methane.

That is true only because of the beef industry. If beef consumption is reduced voluntarily, no factory farms and no methane problem from cow dung. No eutrophication of water sources. A healthier citizenry frees up resources from healthcare.

I’m talking about India. India has the largest cattle population in the world and it’s not a beef industry but we do have a large milk industry and we produce a lot of milk based food products.

I agree with US having too much beef for its own good but that’s another debate.

[Mort Walker]

Lots of excess beef consumption in the US where much of it is mixed into fast, packaged and processed foods. It is bad.

India is the 4th or 5th largest bovine beef exporters in the world. More than Argentina. Much of it is sold to Vietnam, which is actually a conduit to China.