Electric vehicle and power storage

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Post Reply
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10033
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Mort Walker »

Vayutuvan wrote:that explains why LED bulbs in my home keep going caput.
I’ve had some strange failures where the LED cycles at 30-60 Hz which is very irritating. Found out when video at home and then seeing some wierd effects. Swapped them out and all is fine.

If we switch to DC we could see significant energy savings due limiting conversion losses, but compressors and motors for AC, fridges and washing machines would have to be DC. If you have solar power, that would be ideal. Rough guess is at least 20% energy savings by not converting DC to AC.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12062
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Vayutuvan »

Cyrano wrote:The best solution is to recognise "Annam para brahma swaroopam" and avoid wastage as much as possible, consciously, with religious zeal. In every home. And eatery. Sadly India is going the west way with increasing prosperity.

France has implemented an "Anti Wastage Law". Read about it here, its in English. A good step in the right direction.
https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/sites/defa ... %20PJL.pdf
I don't think they are talking about wasted food here though the phraseology "Food waste" gives that impression. I am not contesting your point that a lot of food is wasted in the US. There is that. In case of Grind2Energy, they are using wastage from commercial cooking facilities - peels etc. - to produce energy. It may be a mixture of wasted food as well refuse from food preparation itself.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12062
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Vayutuvan »

Cyrano wrote:name "bio gas plant" :wink: And I'm sure they do 95% as good for under 5% of the cost.
If you mean Gobar gas plants by "bio gas plant", no they are not efficient.They can be setup quickly for low cost but they do not scale up.

A modern biogas plant is a different beast. Germany is the no. 1 in first-generation biogas plants. There are some second-generation processes being developed in India. Smaller plants which can will let one reach breakeven in, oh, about 3 years.

Check this out.

http://www.primove.in/agrogas.html

(Full disclosure: I am one of the directors and an investor)
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12062
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Vayutuvan »

Cyrano wrote:India has been using this fancy cutting edge technology since over half a century under the unsophisticated desi name "bio gas plant" :wink: And I'm sure they do 95% as good for under 5% of the cost.
I posted the series of posts as an example to Hgupta ji. That is the level of detail we are looking for, not some general statements like "Ambani and Adani are getting into AES and EVs in a big way" (paraphrasing).

Most of the BRF readership are well educated that they can understand some amount of technical detail(s) and/or what the business proposition and/or process/project management, and even a little bit of legal stuff (especially patent/copyright law) due to general knowledge (or read up to understand) and an analytical mind.
Rishirishi
BRFite
Posts: 1409
Joined: 12 Mar 2005 02:30

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Rishirishi »

Mort Walker wrote:EVs are for people who have more money than sense or early adopters. Until solid state batteries come about and prices drop, they won't make a difference. EVs represent less than 1% of the market in India. In the US, including hybrids of all types, they are 4% of market. The only way possible is by government mandates which won't work in many countries.
Definately true 3-4 years ago. But the development has been happening so fast. Currently they are talking of prices of about 100 dollars per Kwh. That puts a battery pack cost at about 7-8000 dollars for a large size family car with 500km range. EV have a simple electric motor. Gone are radiators, ICE, exhaust,dynamo's, complex gear mechanism. So we can subtract about 2500 dollars savings compared to ICE related engines. So the EV is about 5000 dollars expensiver. But there are huge savings on fuel and maintenance (less can go wrong). So for most it will actually make sense to loan the extra 5000 dollars (but that depends on how much you drive).

From a national perspective, it is very desirable to get rid of the oil dependency, as oil import is a huge cost and also pose a constant risk.

So I think we will see a massive shift towards EV starting in the near future. Already taxi's have started to move to EV's. They are quiet and much more fun to drive (fantastic pickup)
Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12195
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Pratyush »

In the last 12 months my family has purchased 2 petrol cars. But we did take a long and hard look at EV from TATA, Hyundai and MG.

The decision was made because of the lack of compatible charging infrastructure and our use case.

I will personally be in the market for a Motor vehicle in the next few years. EV will be a strong contender in my case once infrastructure comes up.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5481
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Cyrano »

For regular city driving of 100-150km/day current EV tech is OK with overnight charging. If regular long distance trips are envisaged, the choice is less obvious. Battery replacement hors warranty is a risk.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12062
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Vayutuvan »

http://www.fao.org/3/i2454e/i2454e.pdf

Please take a look at page 31 of this report. The relative costs of RES are given for food production. Couple that with the following statistic

https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/article/78/3/660S/4690010
Abstract:
Worldwide, an estimated 2 billion people live primarily on a meat-based diet, while an estimated 4 billion live primarily on a plant-based diet. The US food production system uses about 50% of the total US land area, 80% of the fresh water, and 17% of the fossil energy used in the country. The heavy dependence on fossil energy suggests that the US food system, whether meat-based or plant-based, is not sustainable. The use of land and energy resources devoted to an average meat-based diet compared with a lactoovovegetarian (plant-based) diet is analyzed in this report. In both diets, the daily quantity of calories consumed are kept constant at about 3533 kcal per person. The meat-based food system requires more energy, land, and water resources than the lactoovovegetarian diet. In this limited sense, the lactoovovegetarian diet is more sustainable than the average American meat-based diet.
By pushing for EVs and better batteries, aren't people barking up the wrong tree?!!!
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10033
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Mort Walker »

arvin
BRFite
Posts: 672
Joined: 17 Aug 2016 21:26

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by arvin »

^^^^
How did you conclude the cause to be lithium batteries in EV?
The article doesnt mention the cause and only says the fire stRted in the cargo hold.
The ship had a exotic collection of cars but no mention they were EVs.
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10033
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Mort Walker »

Lots of EVs are on board and VW which shipped them out is saying it is too early to blame it on lithium ion battery fire, but that looks like the probable cause.
Lithium-ion batteries in the electric cars on board have caught fire and the blaze requires specialist equipment to extinguish, captain Joao Mendes Cabecas of the port of Hortas said.
https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a3913 ... batteries/
saumitra_j
BRFite
Posts: 377
Joined: 24 Dec 2005 17:13
Location: Pune, India

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by saumitra_j »

In India, 61% of petrol consumption is through two wheelers. Souce:This Link
An All India Study conducted by M/s Nielsen (India) Pvt Ltd for Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of Petroleum Ministry has thrown up interesting data about use of diesel and petrol sold across various states. As per the All India study report submitted to PPAC, 70% of diesel and 99.6% petrol is consumed in the transport sector alone. Of the total diesel sale, the highest consumption of 28.48 is by cars, utility vehicles (UVs) and 3-wheelers. It was also revealed that private cars & UVs account for 13.15%, commercial cars & UVs 8.94% and 3-wheelers 6.39% of the diesel sold in the country.

In case of Petrol, 99.6% is consumed in the transport sector. Of this majority consumption of 61.42% is accounted for by Two-Wheelers while cars use 34.33% followed by 3-wheelers at 2.34%. It was also revealed that in the States of Odisha, Bihar and Rajasthan, petrol consumption by two-wheelers exceeds 70%.
Given this, what we need is more electric two wheelers - I really hope companies like Ather / Ola can succeed. Ather has done some brilliant in house development of all tech. Cars IMHO will take a lot more time and will require far more infra - we should maximize on the lower hanging fruit IMHO. I have been using a Ather for last one year and is very doable - CHS / Residence Associations cannot stop you from putting a charger in the society as long as it is connected to your own meter :)
uddu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2091
Joined: 15 Aug 2004 17:09

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by uddu »

Must be taking the Diesel+Petrol and then calculating the percentage which could show a totally different picture. EV two wheeler initial cost is the main hindarance. If the likes of Ather could bring it on par of petrol scooters, then the economy of scale will tilt in their favor.
saumitra_j
BRFite
Posts: 377
Joined: 24 Dec 2005 17:13
Location: Pune, India

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by saumitra_j »

They are slightly more expensive to purchase but those driving 30km + per day, they would be able to recover the costs sooner. Ather is expensive but others are in the ballpark.
uddu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2091
Joined: 15 Aug 2004 17:09

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by uddu »

For most the initial cost of investment on a bike if it crosses a certain amount even if they calculate the long term profit, will consider paying less in the short term considering many unknowns like battery cost etc. One aspect I could not figure out is whether the cost of battery+motor double or triple than that of an ICE engine? or the current players are fleecing the customers?
arvin
BRFite
Posts: 672
Joined: 17 Aug 2016 21:26

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by arvin »

Mort Walker wrote:Lots of EVs are on board and VW which shipped them out is saying it is too early to blame it on lithium ion battery fire, but that looks like the probable cause.
Assuming that is the cause, and since the cars were static, what factors in combination with lithium battery could trigger to the fire.
There was a previous incident in English channel on another ship not sure if its EV where leaking brake fluid caused a fire.

https://jalopnik.com/how-one-suv-fire-d ... 1826086012
Brake fluid leaking from the master cylinder reservoir cap had been reported to enter the vehicles’ automatic braking system (ABS) wiring harness electrical connectors, causing short-circuits, melting, and fires,” the NTSB reported. By 2012, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration knew of at least 260 vehicles that experienced a non-crash related fire.
Could be similar case here also. Lets see what the investigations throw up.
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10033
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Mort Walker »

This ship has been burning so hot from the beginning, all signs point to lithium ion batteries. ICE vehicles are shipped dry and new vehicles shipped from the factory rarely catch fire. In any case, all of these companies have invested so much into lithium batteries, the truth will never come out.

Safety issues arising from large lithium battery thermal runaway are a big concern and a big reason why they are not allowed in checked baggage on aircraft. Even air cargo transport of laptops, phones and tablets from manufacturers are handled differently. It is better to wait for solid state batteries for vehicles of any kind. We should see them in 2025.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12062
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Vayutuvan »

saumitra_j wrote:
In case of Petrol, 99.6% is consumed in the transport sector. Of this majority consumption of 61.42% is accounted for by Two-Wheelers while cars use 34.33% followed by 3-wheelers at 2.34%. It was also revealed that in the States of Odisha, Bihar and Rajasthan, petrol consumption by two-wheelers exceeds 70%.
What about autorickshaws? Not all states have mandated Autos to be converted to CNG, AFAIK.
Rishirishi
BRFite
Posts: 1409
Joined: 12 Mar 2005 02:30

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Rishirishi »

Mort Walker wrote:This ship has been burning so hot from the beginning, all signs point to lithium ion batteries. ICE vehicles are shipped dry and new vehicles shipped from the factory rarely catch fire. In any case, all of these companies have invested so much into lithium batteries, the truth will never come out.

Safety issues arising from large lithium battery thermal runaway are a big concern and a big reason why they are not allowed in checked baggage on aircraft. Even air cargo transport of laptops, phones and tablets from manufacturers are handled differently. It is better to wait for solid state batteries for vehicles of any kind. We should see them in 2025.
What is your point? We all know there are risks with new technology.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12062
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Vayutuvan »

Rishirishi wrote:What is your point? We all know there are risks with new technology.
Are the risks of EVs being underestimated? Swept under the rug? Embodied energy figures of solar are low-balled? Are the risks of nuclear energy being inflated?

Rishirishi saab, you dance around the issue of how to produce the electricity to charge these billions of EVs which you obviously favor. Could you please give some numbers, figures, and summarize research on that subject, RSVP?
hgupta
BRFite
Posts: 477
Joined: 20 Oct 2018 14:17

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by hgupta »

And this time from another country with larger coal reserves than India and with better quality, the largest coal fired plant shut down due to inability to compete with renewable energy sources.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-02-16/

The reason?
"The reality is the economics of coal-fired power stations are being put under increasing, unsustainable pressure by cleaner and lower cost generation, including solar, wind and batteries," Origin Energy Chief Executive Frank Calabria said in a statement.
And they are planning to install 2 700 MW battery systems to replace the coal fired plant when it shuts down.

As for the ship carrying cars caught on fire, it is certainly not the first time nor will it be the last. A simple google search reveals cargo ships carrying cars catching on fire in the past.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/34041/tho ... in-florida

https://www.autoweek.com/news/a1714001/ ... e-pacific/

https://www.indiatimes.com/trending/wtf ... 64076.html

The last one carried porsches and luxury cars too but they were all non EVs. This is not a complete list of cargo ships carrying cars catching on fire.

So I am not sure what some of the posters on this thread are trying to prove regarding the ship that carried EVs catching fire. After all, cars carry flammable fluids and more gasoline cars have catched fires than EVs ever did on a per capita basis.

As for EVs catching on fire, yes they do catch fire but at a far lower rate than gasoline/ICE cars catching on fire. It is just that gasoline/ICE cars catching on fire are not newsworthy. I have included a graph showing the data for EV fires versus gasoline car fires.

https://electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/ ... -Chart.jpg

You can also check out the data at this link: https://www.autoinsuranceez.com/gas-vs- ... car-fires/

Because EVs and lithium batteries are new technology so we are on a learning curve how to deal with those risks of these technologies including fire breaking out, containing them, and putting them out just like we had a learning curve back then when gasoline cars were the new technology of the day and we had to deal with fires breaking out due to the flammable fuels inside the vehicles. We had to learn how to deal with those risks and how to mitigate them. Likewise with EVs, our learning will mature to the point where we can have confidence of dealing with those risks.

Vayutuvan,


By your logic, one can also argue that the risks of ICE cars being underestimated, being swept under the rug and that subsidies of fossil fuels are being low-balled based on the articles and links I provided.

Why don't you do your own homework instead of asking other people to do it or ask such blanket loaded question that you have no intention of following up with your own answers?

So I am turning the questions on you. You obviously favor continuing fossil fuel powered plants. Could you please give numbers, figures, and summarize research on how fossil fuel plants and vehicles will be cost efficient and sufficient to meet the needs of the growing population of India without transferring tens of billions of dollars overseas? India paid over $100 billion for oil overseas in 2021 and that bill will continue to rise. How do you exactly propose to deal with that considering that India does not have large reserves of oil?

Furthermore, regarding the India's coal reserves, the quality is not good since it has low calorific value and high ash content and the carbon content is low, thus requiring to burn Indian coal at a greater rate than other sources of coal to get the same energy output. Furthermore, at the current rate, we only have enough reserves for 100 years. So if the current rate was to increase to meet the growing needs of our population, our coal reserves would even deplete faster. So how do you exactly propose to deal with that and remain competitive if you continue to use fossil fuels ? Could you please provide some numbers, figures and summarize research?

It would seem to be a no brainer if we could wean ourselves off fossil fuels considering we do not have large reserves of oil or natural gas, our coal reserves are not of such good quality to be more efficient, and therefore convert to renewables to save money in the long run and keep our cash within the country instead of sending them overseas. We would convert the trade imbalance into our favor and be energy independent. Sure we would be spending money on purchasing raw materials to produce batteries, solar panels, and wind blades/turbines but those expenses would be considered as capital outlays that can be spread over time, not annual outlays which leads to far lower costs and more economical in the long run as these power companies found out after running coal fired plants and comparing the costs to using renewable energy sources.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12062
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Vayutuvan »

hgupta wrote:Vayutuvan,

So I am turning the questions on you. You obviously favor continuing fossil fuel powered plants.
No, I don't favor fossil fuel power plants. I favor biogas-powered trucks/automobiles and co-located power generation facilities. CH4-based H fuel cell-powered autos are competitive vis-a-vis EVs.

You are arguing for either/or which is false dichotomy unless one is fully invested in EVs and battery tech.

That said, you are yet to answer my question on embodied energy. You are the one who has to give figures on that. I have done my homework already. Did you go to the website I posted? If you are seriously interested, I can arrange for you to visit the prototype plant. It is in Pune, India. Commerical plants are coming up by the end of this year. One which is going to up even before the end of the year is smaller one right now operating at 1 TPD but will go to 2.5 TPD in 2-3 months. It is in Rohtak. Sign an NDA and be my guest.

hgupta ji, I am reposting FYI.
Check this out.
http://www.primove.in/agrogas.html
(Full disclosure: I am one of the directors and an investor)
Thakur_B
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2404
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Thakur_B »

V_Raman wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:
It costs approx 2 cr to build a charging station. What about building 10 000 charging stations across the country. Would make it possible to drive the car, even if the battery is small.
2cr for a charging station is an atrociously high amount of money - all you need is a 32AMP circuit and a charger for a small one - it can be a cottage industry almost! even a cost of 50K USD - which is pretty high - works to like 40 Lakhs. Why 2 crores !!!!
2 Cr sounds about right.

Most commercial charging stations would be around 15 -20 KW. That equates to ~ 25 KVA.

For 6 charging stations it would be ~150 KVA.

For connections over 100 KW, HT supply is required. So that would mean a substation of 150-180 KVA costing approx 1.2 Cr.

Add cost for service connections, cabling and chargers approx 20 lacs.

Add cost for PCC + Paver driveway - 30-40 lacs

Add cost for canopy and other civil infra - 20-30 Lacs.
siddhu
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 81
Joined: 16 Aug 2016 16:02

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by siddhu »

Rishirishi wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:EVs are for people who have more money than sense or early adopters. Until solid state batteries come about and prices drop, they won't make a difference. EVs represent less than 1% of the market in India. In the US, including hybrids of all types, they are 4% of market. The only way possible is by government mandates which won't work in many countries.
Definately true 3-4 years ago. But the development has been happening so fast. Currently they are talking of prices of about 100 dollars per Kwh. That puts a battery pack cost at about 7-8000 dollars for a large size family car with 500km range. EV have a simple electric motor. Gone are radiators, ICE, exhaust,dynamo's, complex gear mechanism. So we can subtract about 2500 dollars savings compared to ICE related engines. So the EV is about 5000 dollars expensiver. But there are huge savings on fuel and maintenance (less can go wrong). So for most it will actually make sense to loan the extra 5000 dollars (but that depends on how much you drive).

From a national perspective, it is very desirable to get rid of the oil dependency, as oil import is a huge cost and also pose a constant risk.

So I think we will see a massive shift towards EV starting in the near future. Already taxi's have started to move to EV's. They are quiet and much more fun to drive (fantastic pickup)
I see lot of delivery guys in cities opting for EV to increase their daily margins.
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10033
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Mort Walker »

Rishirishi wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:This ship has been burning so hot from the beginning, all signs point to lithium ion batteries. ICE vehicles are shipped dry and new vehicles shipped from the factory rarely catch fire. In any case, all of these companies have invested so much into lithium batteries, the truth will never come out.

Safety issues arising from large lithium battery thermal runaway are a big concern and a big reason why they are not allowed in checked baggage on aircraft. Even air cargo transport of laptops, phones and tablets from manufacturers are handled differently. It is better to wait for solid state batteries for vehicles of any kind. We should see them in 2025.
What is your point? We all know there are risks with new technology.
It is not a new technology. Lithium ion batteries have been around for 30 years and it is a flawed technology. What you are advocating is for investing in the equivalent of a steam locomotive. It is better to wait for solid state batteries where we will see initial deployment by 2025.
arvin
BRFite
Posts: 672
Joined: 17 Aug 2016 21:26

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by arvin »

Calling it flawed is a sweeping and generalist statement and taking things to extreme. The dangers are more of QC and design issue .
Where would the world be if 3V coin cells using lithium were not there. Same with mobiles.
Off topic ..
I dont mind investing in steam locomotives. They run on coal of which we have plenty. How does it matter if we burn coal in the steam engine or in the coal plant and then supply to the grid. Instead we gave GE, 2 billion dollars for diesel locomotives which requires diesel that pushes up the import bill.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12062
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Vayutuvan »

better to develop coal gasification technology and electrify the train network 100%. is that feasible economically? IDK.

my guess is tht steam locomotives will,have reliability issues unless there are new designs with all new material and furnace tech.
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10033
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Mort Walker »

arvin wrote:Calling it flawed is a sweeping and generalist statement and taking things to extreme. The dangers are more of QC and design issue .
Where would the world be if 3V coin cells using lithium were not there. Same with mobiles.
Off topic ..
I dont mind investing in steam locomotives. They run on coal of which we have plenty. How does it matter if we burn coal in the steam engine or in the coal plant and then supply to the grid. Instead we gave GE, 2 billion dollars for diesel locomotives which requires diesel that pushes up the import bill.
Large capacity lithium ion batteries are problematic. Remember the fiasco with the lithium batteries in the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 catching fire in late 2016? There is a lot of work going on with solid state batteries, and investing more in lithium batteries is a mistake.

Steam locomotives or external combustion engines (ECE) have very low power to weight ratio, in that sense they are similar to current battery technology. Steam locomotives in India were used up to the 1990s in various locations - I last rode in in one in the late 1970s. They were fun to ride in but dreadfully slow. Steam locomotives are < 15% efficient and coal power plants are < 40%.

The purchase of the diesel locomotives was several years ago was flawed, I can't recall, however since Indian Railways has become mostly electric.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12062
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Vayutuvan »

hgupta wrote:There is no way around it. Better to take the pain now and master the renewable energy sector so as we grow our energy production, the pain is even less in the future. We master these technologies now and it will pay off in 10-20 years.
If you mean by "pain", investment then please show me the money. As I said before we already have the technology for CH4. Investment money is hard to come by. "Mastering" is not like turning on a switch which in a few months produce Tech savvy people in droves who will then start designing what India needs. We need the manufacturing base, tech manpower, and a whole raft of other resources.

As of now, after a gestation period of 70 years, our engineering college graduates (majority of them) can design and operate coal-fired power plants, build bridges, and such. Tech manpower across the board - from top management to engineering to technicians - need to be trained for the change in the paradigm.

We have to do all this while running and growing the country at a steady pace.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12062
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Vayutuvan »

Rishirishi wrote:UBS Bank predict end of oil-based vehicles within 2-3 years
The extra cost of manufacturing battery electric cars versus their fossil fuel equivalents will diminish to just $1,900 (£1,470) per car by 2022, and disappear completely by 2024, according to research by the investment bank UBS. The research is based on detailed analysis of batteries from the seven largest manufacturers.
UBS said it expected battery costs to drop to below $100 per kilowatt hour (kWh), a key milestone, by 2022.
Rishirishi ji, blast from the past. :mrgreen:

viewtopic.php?p=2466673#p2466673

Is this prediction going to come true? ~ 1.5 years since the prediction was made. In another 1.5 years, we should see very few petrol/diesel ICE autos on the road if this prediction has to come true.

Please comment.
Last edited by Vayutuvan on 22 Feb 2022 02:28, edited 1 time in total.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12062
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Vayutuvan »

viewtopic.php?p=2466713#p2466713

KL Dubey ji, you too please comment. Let us take stock.
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10033
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Mort Walker »

Vayutuvan wrote: As of now, after a gestation period of 70 years, our engineering college graduates (majority of them) can design and operate coal-fired power plants, build bridges, and such. Tech manpower across the board - from top management to engineering to technicians - need to be trained for the change in the paradigm.

We have to do all this while running and growing the country at a steady pace.
+1 Precisely.
Rishirishi
BRFite
Posts: 1409
Joined: 12 Mar 2005 02:30

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Rishirishi »

Vayutuvan wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:UBS Bank predict end of oil-based vehicles within 2-3 years

Rishirishi ji, blast from the past. :mrgreen:

viewtopic.php?p=2466673#p2466673

Is this prediction going to come true? ~ 1.5 years since the prediction was made. In another 1.5 years, we should see very few petrol/diesel ICE autos on the road if this prediction has to come true.

Please comment.
It is happening. Going the same way as solar power has rendered coal unable to compete. Most new addition is coming from solar, as it is 30% cheaper.

In a oil producing country like Norway 65% of the cars were 100% EV in 2021. The figures for Jan 2022 is 82%. People in Norway have a stong bying power, and are opting for EV, becase they can afford it (also there are some tax relaxations, but not subsidies).

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 022-01-03/

In USA 13 Gigafactories are comming up.
https://electrek.co/2021/12/27/13-batte ... g-new-era/

Try driving a modern EV. You will understand why it is the future. Even in small town India, people are preferring E-ricsaws. At this point of time demand for electric batteries are outstripping the supply, hence high end cars are taking all the supply. As the production capacity is going up the prices are coming down.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12062
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Vayutuvan »

Norway has how many cars per capita? They are a mere 5 million country.

Image

Eh?!!! Where is this 100% coming from? This one is from 11 months back. Are you saying that the increase is going to be exponential?
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12062
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Vayutuvan »

Distribution of the Norwegian stock of passenger cars in use by type of fuel or powertrain at the end of 2021.[1]

Image

What gives? This is from Dec 2021. Not even two months back.
Rishirishi
BRFite
Posts: 1409
Joined: 12 Mar 2005 02:30

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Rishirishi »

Mort Walker wrote:
arvin wrote:Calling it flawed is a sweeping and generalist statement and taking things to extreme. The dangers are more of QC and design issue .
Where would the world be if 3V coin cells using lithium were not there. Same with mobiles.
Off topic ..
I dont mind investing in steam locomotives. They run on coal of which we have plenty. How does it matter if we burn coal in the steam engine or in the coal plant and then supply to the grid. Instead we gave GE, 2 billion dollars for diesel locomotives which requires diesel that pushes up the import bill.
Large capacity lithium ion batteries are problematic. Remember the fiasco with the lithium batteries in the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 catching fire in late 2016? There is a lot of work going on with solid state batteries, and investing more in lithium batteries is a mistake.

Steam locomotives or external combustion engines (ECE) have very low power to weight ratio, in that sense they are similar to current battery technology. Steam locomotives in India were used up to the 1990s in various locations - I last rode in in one in the late 1970s. They were fun to ride in but dreadfully slow. Steam locomotives are < 15% efficient and coal power plants are < 40%.

The purchase of the diesel locomotives was several years ago was flawed, I can't recall, however since Indian Railways has become mostly electric.

Hilariously wrong as usual :rotfl: :rotfl:
Check the battery on your mobile phone. What type of battery is it ?? Check your laptop, or are you using the desktop in fear of explosions. :D
Rishirishi
BRFite
Posts: 1409
Joined: 12 Mar 2005 02:30

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Rishirishi »

Vayutuvan wrote:Distribution of the Norwegian stock of passenger cars in use by type of fuel or powertrain at the end of 2021.[1]

Image

What gives? This is from Dec 2021. Not even two months back.
This is the current stock of cars. It will take some time for EV's to replace all the old cars. Face the facts. 82% of all new cars sold in Jan 2022 were pure EV's in Norway.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12062
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Vayutuvan »

Another question. Why do these EU countries have that high a ratio of cars per capita? They all have good public mass transportation. At least the places I had been to.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12062
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by Vayutuvan »

Rishirishi wrote:This is the current stock of cars. It will take some time for EV's to replace all the old cars. Face the facts. 82% of all new cars sold in Jan 2022 were pure EV's in Norway.
Your post I quoted before says that by 2022, there won't be any oil cars!!! In any case, the prediction is limited to Norway only? I thought UBS is predicting that would be for the entire world.
vera_k
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3986
Joined: 20 Nov 2006 13:45

Re: Electric vehicle and power storage

Post by vera_k »

Electric vehicle battery cost falls to $132 per kWh, but it might go up from there

We might be in for a spell of backwards movement on this front. As it is, Tesla has been raising prices on its electric cars in the USA, although its thought that at least some of that is geared towards capturing the value of some of the subsidies being made available to US consumers.
Post Reply