Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

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hanumadu
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby hanumadu » 15 Nov 2016 02:01

Kishore Biyani ‏@kishore_biyani 17h17 hours ago
Our retail business bouncing back,better than normal in some formats so quickly shows Indias resilience, citizens ability to manage change
0 replies 539 retweets 402 likes

Roflindian ‏@Roflindian 6h6 hours ago
As a doc, I get to meet a representative cross section of the society on a daily basis. People, though inconvenienced, r positive & upbeat.
0 replies 115 retweets 95 likes

Roflindian ‏@Roflindian 6h6 hours ago
The sense of doom is gradually giving way to a sense of calm. As long as there is money to buy essentials, people are willing to sail along.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby vijayk » 15 Nov 2016 02:09

http://postcard.news/will-shocked-know- ... old-notes/
You Will be Shocked to Know What Has Happened to Naxals and Maoists After Demonetization of Old Notes!

Since one week there are few people who have been massively hit by demonetization decision. On one hand, if corrupt politicians, businessman are having sleepless nights and popping pills for depression, on the other side,the anti social elements, terrorists and naxals have gone into rat holes and attained coma state.

Ever since PM Modi announced the demonetization of old notes, the worst hit are the terrorists and the naxals. These people live on black money and receive huge funding from various political parties through cash. But since one week all their money transformed into nothing more than a bundle of papers with no value. No main stream media reported the news that Naxals activities have totally come to stand still. There has been no violence reported from Jammu Kashmir in the past 5 days. This is the first time ever in decades that Jammu Kashmir has remained peaceful for 5 consecutive days.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby anupmisra » 15 Nov 2016 02:33

Are hurry-yet leaders lining up to exchange their 500 and 1000 Rupee notes?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby pankajs » 15 Nov 2016 02:36

Not news from the valley. The media focus on Khujli. My guess is that minions will be deployed but they too face the same problem.

1. Deposit above 2.5 L will invite scrutiny.
2. Limited withdrawl.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby M_Joshi » 15 Nov 2016 03:06

habal wrote:this week saturday, sunday working days for bank.

...

folks are sitting upto 2AM in their branches trying to give a 'day end' because in the hullaballoo, there is always 1K-20K difference.

RBI is doing it's bit, every bundle of new currency notes have 100-300 rupees short, adding to these troubles.


Which Bank do you work for?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby saip » 15 Nov 2016 03:27

I have used the ATMs in the USA andi INDIA and never have I ever received money short. I am sure RBI uses definitely better money counting machines and if some one says EVERY bundle is short, so much for his truthfulness.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby disha » 15 Nov 2016 04:01

Brad Goodman wrote:
1) Salaried middle class who are still old school (in 70's and above) who do not trust banking system much, Line up on 1st of month to withdraw pensions from bank. These days with pay commission the pensions run in tens of thousands have very little liability so expenses are low and love the feeling of sitting on cash. They file NILL income tax return each year and most time are careless to report income from interest they get from fixed deposits (which they love as much as they hate current accounts deposits in bank) They have turned white money into black (because they don't maintain good trail of money) this kind of class is sitting on 5 Lacs to 10 Lacs of cash.



1. Unreported income is not Black Money. It is the unaccounted for income. Taking all the money from your bank account every month and sitting on it at home does not make that money black money. The pension money is still accounted - that is it came from your bank account and the GOI and the Bank knows about it.

Not reporting income interest income is still not black money., as long as it is accounted for. Here the bank knows that it has given you interest. Here the bank reports that interest to the GOI. GOI may not deem fit to go for an unreported interest if it is below certain threshold.

So there goes your point 1.

2) Doctors/ Lawyers: Professionals who deal with cash. Usually underreport incomes. Lets leave the doctors with their own hospitals and rich advocates out for now. Most common types might be going a 60:40 income disclosure (again a pure guess). Over years most of this money has been safely parked into realestates (no loans all purchased to can escape the down valuation easily since they don t rely on income from it) and gold which is sitting in bank lockers. Now they still have lot of unparked cash at hand that was not disposed. My guess is they are sitting on some where between 20 Lacs and 40 Lacs in cash ( It can be higher but I would want to assume less than 1 Cr)


Note - both gold and land are less liquid. Gold can be put as an inheritance and land as long as it is not benami and has a paper trail - it will be not a problem. It is unused asset with hidden value and does not constitute black money. Of course, if you hare a middle-class "professional" but have say 50 Kgs. of gold., then well you do have to prove that your grand-father and great-grand-father were some prince or princess!

So this rests your point 2.

3) Traders and small scale industrialists: They have CA on payroll whose full time job is to run the two books in parallel. I have very little insight into the working but I want to put this category of people as one who have some where between 1 Cr and 5 Cr sitting in cash ( rest parked into real estate, stocks and gold)


Most of the traders and small scale industrialists fall in item# 2 above. If you have some 1-5 Crore cash in hand and equivalent in gold/land., then no - you are not a small fry - but a good size fish. Even CA on payroll will not be able to save you - if there is no accountability for the 10 crore of property you possess!

This are the class which will whine a lot., since CA cannot save them and they do neither have the clout of the next one.

4) Large Industrialists: Now they not only have CA and whole scale finance department dedicated to their money. They are even more sophisticated. I would assume they might have 5 Cr to 50 Cr sitting in cash. Rest parked in Foreign Currency, Stocks, Real Estate, Gold ....

5) Politicians: I am clubbing Sarpanch, Corporator, MLA and MP all into this bucket. He has parked his money safely but also sits on huge pile of cash individually needs upto 15-20 cr to fight Loksabha election so needs that much cash. Plus has to provide similar matching amount to Party as fund. He also needs to keep 100's of karyakartas on payroll throughout the year. This workforce is not free and netaji has to pay them all through the year. SO I am assuming even after parking all his surplus assets. Netaji needs to have somewhere between 50cr - 100 cr in cash

6) Wild card: I am lumping all corrupt government officials, criminals, Maoists etc into this class (not dawood category). They have huge amount of cash with absolutely no proper way of parking assets except in real estates and gold. There is some level of Hawala but what will they do with money parked outside unless they have children there. They would be sitting in biggest pile of cash ( 1cr - 50 Cr)


All of the above >10 Cr are big fishes. Some are big whales - like Kejru/Mamata and Maya who have 1000s of crores. Some are big whalers like mullahyam, kalaignar and JJ who have 10000s of crores and then there is #Pappu with 1lac crore (NH/RGF/etc). This are the persons who have a team of CAs and a team of #mediapimps and also a gang of goondas.

Now if I was #1 category. I would be worried because I am less sophisticated but have very little cash to really dispose off. If I have 5 Lacs sitting in my home I can deposit 2.5 in my account and 2.5 in my wife's account. If it is little more I can still deposit and collect all the paper trail from my passbook to jusify the source. Its a hassle but manageable, In most cases they don't need to use JDY account of poor people to convert their money


Wrong., if you are in #1 category., you should be happy and dancing with joy.

#2 They will goto CA. They will bump up incomes for 2016 and from now on convert most substantial part of their business into white. They are ready to pay fine and move into mainstream. They can try to use their maids, domestic help, workers etc to launder some money. (for every 10 Lacs they need 4 people) How many people do they trust? What if they deposit the money and not give back what can they do? So if they are looking at 20 lacs to 40 Lacs they need 8-16 JDY accounts which is not practical for them


Honestly if I have 1Cr to 5 Cr in additional property in India., I would not consider myself a small fry. However if most if not all is accounted for., there is nothing to fear.

From # 3 onwards the probability of misusing JDY accounts increases for few reasons. One they have enough such social and professional circle of people (example workers / employees in factory or office, karyakarta, poor people who come to them for help etc) but remember they have to use the ultra poor JDY accounts that are at 50K now they need to launder in crores they needs 1000's of such accounts. They will do it as much possible but the gains are not huge.

So overall I feel that JDY misuse will happen. But if you are talking of a 5000 Rs account then it might not be worth your time and effort to catch these small fishes. Ultimate goal is to wean people off cash transactions. focus on that goal for now go after medium and big fishes, streamline the cash flows.


It is the #3, #4 and #5 who are screaming the loudest since misusing the JDY route is also not bad., the money is distributed! Remember all the talk of Modi depositing 10000 Rs in bank accounts of the poor? Well in West Bengal some saw as much as 1lac getting deposited in their account.

Isn't this what K(utta) K(amina) Kejru wanted? Where is the black money in the accounts of poor? Here it is. Here it is and Here it is.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 15 Nov 2016 05:49

Demonetisation: Strain on banking system as card use zooms 60%
A 60% jump in card usage across India following the demonetisation move by the government has put a strain on the backend payment systems network, forcing customers to put off purchases of goods.

Since the Narendra Modi government scrapped Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes last week, first-time usage of debit cards has shot up by 30% and there has been a 20% increase in activation of card machines that were dormant, according to digital payments processor Innoviti. The overall national growth in card usage was 60%, with majority skewed towards debit card usage.

Banks also saw a jump in debit card usage across India but one official, who confirmed the spike, could not immediately quantify it.

“There was heavy traffic in debit card transactions. A lot of people were using their cards for the first time, which further slowed down the system as many people could not recall passwords or follow instructions at automated teller machines (ATMs),” said Ravi Krishan Takkar, managing director (MD) and chief executive officer (CEO) of UCO Bank.

Windfall for MFs, demonetisation could bring up to Rs 16 lakh-crore
The move to withdraw high-denomination bank notes could open the floodgates for temporary inflows into the Rs 16 lakh-crore mutual fund (MF) sector. According to estimates, MFs could get an incremental Rs 50,000 crore in the next two months by way of investments from banks, which are flush with liquidity.

It is estimated that the total value of currencies in the Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 denominations at the end of March 2016 was about Rs 14.3 lakh crore. Depending on the quantum of black money, anywhere between Rs 8-12 lakh could come into the banking system in the next few weeks. Of this, a small portion, estimated at about Rs 50,000 crore could flow into the debt schemes (mostly liquid schemes) of mutual funds over the next two months, said experts.

"Mutual funds will be able to garner some money from the banking system, temporarily. But the impact will be limited as banks cannot invest more than 10% of their net worth in liquid funds. Secondly, it remains to be seen how much of this money will come into short-term debt funds as they are slightly long-term in nature," said Dwijendra Srivastava, CIO-debt, Sundaram Mutual Fund.

Liquid funds invest in securities with a residual maturity of up to 91 days, primarily in money market instruments like certificate of deposits, treasury bills, and commercial papers. Banks and companies are the major investors in liquid funds, contributing over 90% to the assets of these schemes. In 2011, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had instructed banks to limit their investments in liquid schemes to up to 10% of their net worth. As of October 31, liquid funds contributed Rs 2.7 lakh crore of the Rs 16 lakh crore AUM of the MF sector.

Demonetisation to result in lower interest rates
IMC Chamber of Commerce & Industry on Monday said the government’s demonetisation move would result in lower interest rates and bring Rs 400 lakh crore of black money into the banking system in the next three years.

IMC Chamber President Deepak Premnarayen pegged black money at almost 30 per cent of India’s gross domestic product. Prices in real estate and luxury goods segments are also expected to drop in the short term, he said.

As the people struggle to deposit and withdraw cash in the aftermath of the demonetisation move, the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry has suggested the government to pay an advance salaries of November in cash to its employees at the rate of Rs 10,000 with new Rs 500 notes.

Money-pooling schemes, buying stocks under I-T lens
In order to identify the prospects of misuse of phased out high-value notes, tax and enforcement authorities have asked regulators to furnish details of all kinds of money-pooling schemes as such a practice is believed to have suddenly become active in managing black money.

Besides, the income tax department is said to have also asked various market intermediaries such as brokerages and depositories to report physical buying of shares or mutual funds of worth Rs 50,000 and above.

Tax authorities have noted that the demonetisation drive had led to increased detection of Ponzi schemes or illegal money pooling schemes to hide unaccounted wealth.

According to the income tax sources, the department is keeping tabs on the mobilisation of funds, which is being regulated by different regulators. “There is a huge element of money laundering in illegal public deposit schemes across the country, which is said to have increased due to partial demonetisation of the currency,” said a senior I-T official.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby sudeepj » 15 Nov 2016 05:58

Has there been any analysis on how much currency an economy of a given GDP and given transaction pattern needs? Such an analysis can easily tell us just how much of the $200 billion worth of currency being demonetized is 'black'.

In India's case, we have a GDP of about $2Trillion, and the currency demonetized is about $200 billion, which comes to about 10% of the GDP! This struck me as a really large number.. Why would the country need so much hard cash? Is everyone storing a months worth of economic activity under mattresses?

If one looks at currency:GDP ratio in other economies such as the US, one observes similar trends. About $1.5 Trillion is in circulation for the USA as per the fed. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/payments ... .htm#value). A large ratio of this amount is in $100 notes. (http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-cu ... on-2012-10). Further, the ratio of GDP to currency has just gone up and up, completely out of proportion to the actual GDP or the increasing cashless nature of current economies. The amount of US currency in circulation has doubled, while GDP has grown by a measly 15-20% or so! To me, this indicates, US dollars are being hoarded as black money by international criminals and tax evaders.

I am not sure if such data is published by the RBI, but 10% of GDP as Rs 500 and 1000 denomination notes strikes me as an amount that bears absolutely no relation to the actual liquidity needs of India. Good move by Modi ji, but will need to increase the money supply to compensate for the decrease caused by criminals destroying the notes.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Karthik S » 15 Nov 2016 06:07

Rs 3L Crores into banking system as per the NH debate last night. It's fast approaching $50B.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Abhijit » 15 Nov 2016 06:10

I have some very basic questions for the gurus here.
1. Swiss banks: Do they also hold large rupee deposits (black money) and if so, wouldn't they be browning their shalwars?
2. Swiss banks 2: If they don't hold rupees, how do the Indian black money hoarders remove their swiss deposits and bring back the money to India in future? If the swiss banks start demanding 2000 rupee notes, won't they have to disclose to rbi/goi where they are getting the demand from?
3. Indian depositors in swiss banks: if they convert their money to dollars/pounds etc. then ok, but if they want to bring back the swiss bank money into India, wouldn't they be screwed anyway?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 15 Nov 2016 06:21

Abhijit wrote:I have some very basic questions for the gurus here.
1. Swiss banks: Do they also hold large rupee deposits (black money) and if so, wouldn't they be browning their shalwars?
2. Swiss banks 2: If they don't hold rupees, how do the Indian black money hoarders remove their swiss deposits and bring back the money to India in future? If the swiss banks start demanding 2000 rupee notes, won't they have to disclose to rbi/goi where they are getting the demand from?

Exactly
Abhijit wrote:3. Indian depositors in swiss banks: if they convert their money to dollars/pounds etc. then ok, but if they want to bring back the swiss bank money into India, wouldn't they be screwed anyway?

Right.

That's the summary of the situation. If they hold cash, they have to come forward. If they hold forex / property / gold , they cannot liquidate without setting off a trigger with the IT department who wants to know where's the purchase transaction corresponding to the sale/liquidation. There's no hawala channel anymore to bring forex back as rupees.

Of course, they could 'slurp honey through a very thin straw' by liquidating very small amounts hoping to stay under the radar. But these are big fish. Liquidating very small amounts doesn't do them much good either.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby shiv » 15 Nov 2016 06:55

Some thoughts.

On Nov 8th, 85% of the currency in circulation was declared unusable except for a few outlets like banks, petrol pumps, hospitals etc.

On Nov 9th a lot of economic activity has stopped. Shops and restaurants were empty, and people travelling by autorickshaws for whatever reason also declined.

Gradually the 85% "hole" is being filled with Rs 100 and new notes.

We have all read in the media about those who are seriously affected. Black money hoarders, moneylenders, terrorists, naxals, real estate barons, political parties etc. This we know.


But i believe that as the currency "hole" is filled up with fresh white money we will gradually discover what black money was actually doing among the aam junta. Let me say what I mean. For example among doctors are generally fairly low-grade black money operators it was well known that black money should be burnt on untraceable luxuries while white money should be used for anything traceable. For example black money should be spent on expensive restaurants, treats, liquor or on holidays. A stay in a 5 Star Hotel may be traceable but all the cash you use en route is untraceable.

So I think we are going to see which "small transaction" sectors of the economy were supported by black. I suspect prostitution and the begging mafia will take a hit. There is an area close to the railway station in Bangalore where one can get hotel rooms for as little ad Rs 450 per night - mostly for travellers, lower income group tourists and some nefarious activities. These hotels are currently running empty ( I am told by autoricksha drivers) . Need to see how many of these get affected. I am sure some star hotel restaurants too will be affected. Marriage halls and caterers will bear some of the brunt. Just guessing..

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby hanumadu » 15 Nov 2016 06:57

Abhijit wrote:I have some very basic questions for the gurus here.
1. Swiss banks: Do they also hold large rupee deposits (black money) and if so, wouldn't they be browning their shalwars?
2. Swiss banks 2: If they don't hold rupees, how do the Indian black money hoarders remove their swiss deposits and bring back the money to India in future? If the swiss banks start demanding 2000 rupee notes, won't they have to disclose to rbi/goi where they are getting the demand from?
3. Indian depositors in swiss banks: if they convert their money to dollars/pounds etc. then ok, but if they want to bring back the swiss bank money into India, wouldn't they be screwed anyway?


The money can probably come in as FDI or as NRI earnings of a family member. Like in NDTV where hundreds of crores were invested without a commensurate change in the stake holding pattern. Start a company in india and bring money from abroad as FDI at inflated values. Heck that method is used to transfer money in Indian itself from one person to another or one entity to another like in the case of Tehelka.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby shiv » 15 Nov 2016 07:06

Abhijit wrote:I have some very basic questions for the gurus here.
1. Swiss banks: Do they also hold large rupee deposits (black money) and if so, wouldn't they be browning their shalwars?
2. Swiss banks 2: If they don't hold rupees, how do the Indian black money hoarders remove their swiss deposits and bring back the money to India in future? If the swiss banks start demanding 2000 rupee notes, won't they have to disclose to rbi/goi where they are getting the demand from?
3. Indian depositors in swiss banks: if they convert their money to dollars/pounds etc. then ok, but if they want to bring back the swiss bank money into India, wouldn't they be screwed anyway?

Foreign money is unlikely to be Rupees because the Rupee was "prohibited currency". Foreign bank holdings will be in some foreign currency.

The route to bring it back in is hawala. Since the government itself was involved in hawala and funding naxalites this was never checked.

Hawala works something like this. People who help you do hawala transactions are small gulf sheiks and Dawoodbhai's gang. You need to have a front company in India with a branch in Singapore or Mauritius or some Island nation. If you have say $1 million (6.7 crores) you transfer it from Switzerland or wherever to a gulf account of sheikh or Dawood. They will take 40% but will reliably remit 60% to your "company" branch in Singapore or Mauritius. They will also say it is "payment" for some services rendered by your fake company for some front company of theirs. Then you can transfer the money in that overseas account to your India head office as white money. I have heard that Dawood is more reliable than gulf sheikhs who may take all your money and not remit a single penny.

The other hawala route is payment in Rupees cash in India in exchange for dollars paid elsewhere. For example this used to happen before 9-11: if my sister in America wants to send me US$ 1000 - she pays her friend in the US that money and that friend's brother gives me the Rupee amount in India

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Marten » 15 Nov 2016 07:34

Shiv saar, it works in a simpler manner. Export of xyz material when the container is full of waste paper and nothing else. All agents and officers are paid off. The contents are disposed off, and physical evidence is maintained. The paper trail will be clean as a whistle and at times they claim duty drawbacks. The payments are transferred. The inward transaction for laundering is typically payments made towards services - a bunch of Hyd based IT cos were part of this circle. On of them owes me money for my legitimate services in the US but cannot be touched due to the connections. I'm sure there are many more methods that experienced bankers on this forum can share with us.

None of this is unknown to the powers that be. My childhood friend's father was a customs supt. Must be worth about Rs100 cr now including all of his properties and white co run in the name of his wife and children. Not a shred of evidence can be found since they built this assiduously and knowing every loophole and possible issue.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby manjgu » 15 Nov 2016 08:13

the real taste of the pudding will be known on 31st March 2017..when figures are tabulated. How much of the 14L crore 500,1000 notes come back into deposits?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby chetak » 15 Nov 2016 08:47

many of the PSU petrol pumps are massively adulterating their fuel to maximize their profits, knowing that the windfall gains will end very soon.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 15 Nov 2016 08:49

manjgu wrote:the real taste of the pudding will be known on 31st March 2017..when figures are tabulated. How much of the 14L crore 500,1000 notes come back into deposits?

Whatever doesn't come back is a free writeoff of RBI's liability on that note.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby vijayk » 15 Nov 2016 09:08

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 424507.cms

As the days pass and the dust around demonetisation starts settling, I can see among people I know that there are broadly three kinds of reactions. One, the inconvenienced yet happy; two, those who are seriously worried; and three, the utterly shocked, panicked and distraught.

By numbers, this list is in descending order, with the last category being the smallest. As far as I can see, the ruined category is filled with those whose whose money comes from illegal sources, such as bribery

In other words, their money is the proceeds of a crime and can therefore not be explained in any way. Moreover the proportion of their assets that are held as real estate and gold have also been effectively demonetised.

This is something that a lot of commentators have either missed or are not convinced about. However, those who hold vast amount of real estate as unaccounted wealth know very well that a huge chunk of the value has evaporated. It simply won’t be possible to do deals which have a large proportion of cash, or indeed to safely accumulate the new cash.

Without this, the value locked in their assets will not be realisable till inflation has eaten away a large chunk of it. Make no mistake, they all know that at any point in the future, they could switch on the TV one evening, only to hear Narendra Modi’s voice ring out, “Bhaiyon aur behnon, aaj raat madhya ratri se...” and their nightmare will be back :rotfl: :rotfl: .



To me, the far more complicated question is that of the middle group. These are, for the most part business people from the small to medium scale. Till a few years ago, most of them used to pay nothing of either indirect taxes or income tax.

Now, they do pay a bit but generally only a fraction of what they should be paying. The strange thing (strange to you and me, at least) is that many of them don’t consider themselves dishonest — this is just the way business of a certain type an and scale is done in India.

How does this happen? I’ve observed this closely over the years and believe that it’s almost a cultural issue.



It’s a well-known fact that almost most credit in the Indian system is sucked up by governments and big enterprises. The idea of taking out money from the meager cash flow and giving it to the government sounds financially suicidal, and for many small businesses, it is. A good part of their competitive advantage is made up of not having to pay taxes.

You may never have thought of it this way, but if someone’s competitors are not paying taxes, then they can’t pay taxes too. Everyone has to be dragged into the tax net simultaneously.

Otherwise, those who become honest first will be driven out of business. Meanwhile there’s an entire ecosystem to support your cash business, from suppliers and customers, all the way to the CAs and the tax officials and the investment avenue, which is little else except real estate. Everything functions smoothly, leaving the task of funding the government mostly to the salaried class and to indirect taxes.



It was a stable system, and one that was changing imperceptibly, if at all. It needed an out-of-the-box doer to realise that there was absolutely no way out except for some really strong shock treatment. There’s some chaos, maybe a lot of it for a while.


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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Rishi Verma » 15 Nov 2016 09:14

A popular car rental company located at many airports is based in Hyderabad. I heard that they are big time into money laundering, hajj ticket scams, etc. All cash business. They have lost crores of pissfully earned money.

Too many collateral benefits to count that even ModiJi may not have factored in.

- pissful stone pelters not getting paid
- pissful dubai-mumbai based smugglers getting hit
- naxals getting hit
- small businesses requiring even the lowest rung labourers to use JDY for salary via e-transfers
- anyone with BM having sleepless nights
(that next time they won't get even 4-hour notice)
- discrediting kejri, maya, momta, mulayam in one go

Rishi Verma
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Rishi Verma » 15 Nov 2016 09:25

What Mamta Banerjee may be scheming is to try to topple the government. Do NDA coalition have sufficient numbers? Shiv Sena which easily lost thousands of crores is itching for a revenge too.

Shaktimaan
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Shaktimaan » 15 Nov 2016 09:28

No chance of toppling the government. BJP has a majority by itself. The people gave Modiji a full mandate and he is now using it fearlessly.

kittoo
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby kittoo » 15 Nov 2016 09:31

Rishi Verma wrote:A popular car rental company located at many airports is based in Hyderabad. I heard that they are big time into money laundering, hajj ticket scams, etc. All cash business. They have lost crores of pissfully earned money.

Too many collateral benefits to count that even ModiJi may not have factored in.

- pissful stone pelters not getting paid
- pissful dubai-mumbai based smugglers getting hit
- naxals getting hit
- small businesses requiring even the lowest rung labourers to use JDY for salary via e-transfers
- anyone with BM having sleepless nights
(that next time they won't get even 4-hour notice)
- discrediting kejri, maya, momta, mulayam in one go


Akbar travels?

Rishi Verma
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Rishi Verma » 15 Nov 2016 09:34

kittoo wrote:
Rishi Verma wrote:A popular car rental company located at many airports is based in Hyderabad. I heard that they are big time into money laundering, hajj ticket scams, etc. All cash business. They have lost crores of pissfully earned money.

Too many collateral benefits to count that even ModiJi may not have factored in.

- pissful stone pelters not getting paid
- pissful dubai-mumbai based smugglers getting hit
- naxals getting hit
- small businesses requiring even the lowest rung labourers to use JDY for salary via e-transfers
- anyone with BM having sleepless nights
(that next time they won't get even 4-hour notice)
- discrediting kejri, maya, momta, mulayam in one go


Akbar travels?

Yes

Rishi Verma
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Rishi Verma » 15 Nov 2016 09:36

Shaktimaan wrote:No chance of toppling the government. BJP has a majority by itself. The people gave Modiji a full mandate and he is now using it fearlessly.


Oh I forgot, one needs cash to buy MPs. :lol:

JayS
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby JayS » 15 Nov 2016 09:41

shiv wrote:Foreign money is unlikely to be Rupees because the Rupee was "prohibited currency". Foreign bank holdings will be in some foreign currency.

The route to bring it back in is hawala. Since the government itself was involved in hawala and funding naxalites this was never checked.



While Hawala is the illegal route, the legal route is, the P-notes or Politicians Notes as its fondly ( :lol: ) called. Modi ji is slowly pluging this hole and it should be closed fully in coming days. The typical money flow was like this - earn BM in india, send it ot tax havens through Hawala and bring it back in India as P-notes, fully white, invest in share market, earn very good returns and this money can be taken out any time without any restrictions. Such was the system invented by Congis to loot India.

Bringing this money in India through FDI is difficult and it would leave a lot of paper-trail. P-note is easier and safer way since no-one knows whose owns that money (The situation is changing now since SEBI has started tightening the noose around P-notes). Another safe way is to bring it through FII. Global hedge funds for example can bring in your BM in India through their investment channels.

Suraj
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 15 Nov 2016 09:44

Since summer P notes have been heavily restricted through new identification requirements .

Supratik
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Supratik » 15 Nov 2016 09:57

SBI is 20-25% of the banking system. So multiply their nos by 4 to 5 X to get approx total nos.

rahulm
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby rahulm » 15 Nov 2016 10:02

What exactly is the issue with the payTM ad linked earlier ? It's meeting a genuine need in these times.

chetak
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby chetak » 15 Nov 2016 10:11

Rishi Verma wrote:What Mamta Banerjee may be scheming is to try to topple the government. Do NDA coalition have sufficient numbers? Shiv Sena which easily lost thousands of crores is itching for a revenge too.


mamta and her ilk will have to take rebirth 10 times more to even think of toppling the Modi Govt.

If she were in a position to do so would she not have wreaked havoc already??

It is because she is so helpless and powerless that she is resorting to theatrics, like all the others.

Neither the president nor the SC can / will interfere in this matter as Modi is quite capable of educating both about some places where the sun don't shine.

Modi has the support of the people and no politician can disregard their anger against the corrupt crowd.
Last edited by chetak on 15 Nov 2016 10:14, edited 1 time in total.

Shaktimaan
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Shaktimaan » 15 Nov 2016 10:12

A lot of the anti-demonetisation articles say that cash is a very small percentage the outstanding black money and therefore this move will not do much to end it.

But my question for the learned gurus is, what percent of black money originates as cash? A lot, I would imagine.

I don't think bribes were being paid in real estate ownership papers or something, right? So this move should impact bribery very hard.

Rishi Verma
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Rishi Verma » 15 Nov 2016 10:15

Guru's Pls help me dissect this in order about losers as far as BM hoarders.

1. Big fish politicians
2. Babudom in general
3. Builders and Pvt Colleges
4. Small companies but they are numerous
(eg Akbar Travels)
5. Doctors etc cash businesses
6. Small cash businesses
(I think Tata, L&T, Reliance etc run clean They may be payers but not payees)
Last edited by Rishi Verma on 15 Nov 2016 10:17, edited 1 time in total.

kvraghav
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby kvraghav » 15 Nov 2016 10:17

You are spot on. If the cash is not sucked out, other forms will be liquidised and moved on. Once the cash is sucked out, the immovable properties or gold have no way to he encashed. When buying a site, my 20 lakh white money became black and went into the system since the buyer asked for that much cash.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby kmkraoind » 15 Nov 2016 10:23

rahulm wrote:What exactly is the issue with the payTM ad linked earlier ? It's meeting a genuine need in these times.


- PayTM CEO is 101% certified AAPturd.
- Once Govt announced demonetisation process, he released an ad to further his PayTM business interests.
- The ad is mocking liberals who are cribbing about their maids problems suddenly.
- This angered AAPturds (who are anti-Modi and will oppose any move by him) and AAP IT cell guys complained.
- PayTM ceo retracted the ad, now he has angered pro-demonetisation folks.

If we think China will not control the strings (nurturing Breaking India forces), then we are naive. Money flow is: China -> Alibaba -> PayTM.

If you want Digital wallet, ditch propriety or walled garden PayTM and use UPI.

Last edited by kmkraoind on 15 Nov 2016 10:26, edited 2 times in total.

chetak
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby chetak » 15 Nov 2016 10:23

Shaktimaan wrote:A lot of the anti-demonetisation articles say that cash is a very small percentage the outstanding black money and therefore this move will not do much to end it.

But my question for the learned gurus is, what percent of black money originates as cash? A lot, I would imagine.

I don't think bribes were being paid in real estate ownership papers or something, right? So this move should impact bribery very hard.


They are all saying this to minimize and trivialize Modi's skull breaking sledge hammer strike.

Yes, gold and RE forms a good part of the BM economy, but the figures quoted by some presstitutes and "economic experts" can neither be easily quantified or substantiated to any degree of credible accuracy. every ahole has a guesstimate that depends on and is directly proportional to his/her hatred for Modi/BJP because he/she has lost their presstitute privileges.

Suraj
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 15 Nov 2016 10:24

Well, if someone with a pile of black money buys a property and hands over the cash what do you think happens to the cash ?

I'm not being snarky . I want to encourage thinking through this. There's a persistent line of argument asserting that once the cash is out of hands, the persons clear .

Please give it some thought . What happens to the cash when a BM buyer buys property ? Consider where the seller declares or not . What are the BM property owners options when they sell ?

chetak
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby chetak » 15 Nov 2016 10:29

kmkraoind wrote:
rahulm wrote:What exactly is the issue with the payTM ad linked earlier ? It's meeting a genuine need in these times.


- PayTM CEO is 101% certified AAPturd.
- Once Govt announced demonetisation process, he released an ad to further his PayTM business interests.
- The ad is mocking liberals who are cribbing about their maids problems suddenly.
- This angered AAPturds (who are anti-Modi and will oppose any move by him) and AAP IT cell guys complained.
- PayTM ceo retracted the ad, now he has angered pro-demonetisation folks.

Make me, if we think China will not control the strings, then we naive. Money flow is: China -> Alibaba -> PayTM.



this was the ad that the pay TM a hole put out in a very sly and demeaning manner. Judge for yourself as to how ethical it is.




Image
Last edited by chetak on 15 Nov 2016 10:31, edited 1 time in total.

Suraj
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 15 Nov 2016 10:31

kvraghav wrote:You are spot on. If the cash is not sucked out, other forms will be liquidised and moved on. Once the cash is sucked out, the immovable properties or gold have no way to he encashed. When buying a site, my 20 lakh white money became black and went into the system since the buyer asked for that much cash.

Exactly . This is the line of thought to follow . The BM economy was liquid as long as there was cash backing it . On Nov 8, Modi hit the reset button and now there's 0 cash backing it .

So, how does one buy ? How does one sell ? How does one report if the counterparty seeks white deal now ?

chetak
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby chetak » 15 Nov 2016 10:32

Suraj wrote:
kvraghav wrote:You are spot on. If the cash is not sucked out, other forms will be liquidised and moved on. Once the cash is sucked out, the immovable properties or gold have no way to he encashed. When buying a site, my 20 lakh white money became black and went into the system since the buyer asked for that much cash.

Exactly . This is the line of thought to follow . The BM economy was liquid as long as there was cash backing it . On Nov 8, Modi hit the reset button and now there's 0 cash backing it .

So, how does one buy ? How does one sell ? How does one report if the counterparty seeks white deal now ?


only barter is left as the option


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