Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 17 Nov 2016 18:32

shyamal wrote:If this situation continues on next Monday then you wont need troublemakers. Those wholeheartedly supporting till now will not want to suffer any more. People have been very patient till now. There is a limit to that.

Not everyone is middle-class IT-savvy folks like us.

Can you please give an example of a person who might resort to any violence... of course, other than the guys with the black money.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 17 Nov 2016 18:33

Philip wrote:Third day with no exchange money available at my bank.ATM closed,no new notes.I have to go again tomorrow for my weekly "ration"! The situ is deteriorating fast.The govt. should show a human side to its crusade against corruption.How can an ex-BJP MP/tycoon ,the mining mogul from Bellary conduct such a vulgar and nauseating display of excess at his daughter's wedding in BLR? It makes a mockery of everything that Modi trying to do. The cost an approx $75M! That too when people are starving. The BBC showed long Qs of women in Rajasthan,etc.,waiting in the villages for notes.Some were in the Q from 4am. Thus far 40 have died while in Qs,etc. Unless there is massive relief soon,the tables will turn on Mr.M with a vengeance.

Read the front page of the Ind.Exp."Currency crisis deepens",with detail of how hawala racketeers are using a new route,other banking services paralysed,etc.We are experiencing grim times.

http://epaper.newindianexpress.com/1004 ... 6#page/1/2

The wedding was in active planning for close to a year.

Reddy and his family members would visit wedding venue from bellary every few days to check, supervise and monitor that preparations were as expected.

Invitations went out weeks ago and many refused to attend, fearing political backlash, predominantly those very aholes who took money from reddy for various purposes for years and years.

Reddy was caught as unaware as the rest of us regarding the demonetization of notes.

He was irrevocably and totally committed to the wedding because moneys had already been expended and mucho payments already made and hence withdrawal/cancellation of wedding was not a viable option.

He well knew the political climate in KAR and the "hostility" towards him.

He seems prepared to pay the price and face the music, whatever comes his way. He may be a crook, but he still is a father first.

Please don't dump on this guy because he was overtaken by circumstances. It was not done as a show of defiance. Hats off to BSY for attending the wedding, at least he stood by reddy publicly. the D4 gang profited a lot from him and shamelessly ditched him.

If your comments are social criticism, I agree with you about the ostentatious part.

His partners in crime, jagan and his crooked pop were not touched and jagan is still loafing about comfortably free.

Cases against reddy are are in progress and if he is to pay, then he will.

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 17 Nov 2016 18:35

https://twitter.com/rishibagree/status/ ... 5841653760

BRF needs a specific tag for tweets.

vipins · Post by **vipins** » 17 Nov 2016 18:39

Check http://www.cashnocash.com/ to find nearest useful ATM.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 17 Nov 2016 18:41

The risk that NM runs with this grand scheme is that even those who are supporting him will turn against him if liquidity crunch doesn't improve in next couple of weeks in the short run and if there is no impact of this exercise on common man in the long run like corruption going down, better governance, RE becoming cheaper and few big crocs behind the bar.
Punjab and UP elections will show how common man has perceived this tumultuous event.
Nope, I did not meet any poor or rich man doing 'Jai ho Modi' in last few days but Now I have started seeing people in actual life and SM who think that this was not a proper thought thru exercise and was done to shore up his image. You can not call everyone AAP , Leftists or Congress supporter if they complain genuinely.

PS: Some one pls tell me that if the whole purpose of this exercise was to bring in cash component of BM back into the system, What universe would have fallen if GoI had given 6 months to exchange all high denomination currency notes.
With the kind of slow and corrupt Judiciary we have, do we realistically think that anyone would be sent behind the bars in next 20 years for hoarding BM.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 17 Nov 2016 18:43

https://twitter.com/mediacrooks/status/ ... 6200860672

Peacefuls on train caught with huge stash of currency notes.

Manish Jain · Post by **Manish Jain** » 17 Nov 2016 18:53

Report from ground in Noida.

Finally after waiting for more than a week, I decided to visit a bank. Guard told me to come after 2:00PM since they stop exchanging money after that and only entertain people with accounts in bank.

Went there at 3:00. about 20 people were in queue before me. Still took an hour to withdraw cash as they had only 1 counter. BTW, the bank was IndusInd.

Same building hosts 7-8 different bank branches. ICICI and HDFC has max number of people in queue (more than 50). Kotak Mahindra, YES, Bank Of Baroda and Syndicate each had about 20-30 people in queues.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 17 Nov 2016 18:54

shyamal wrote:Plenty of exchange money available in the banks in Kolkata. No crisis of that yet.
The problem is the long queues and the lack of cash in ATMs.

I don't see that as a problem. If you have atm card means you have bank account then you can walk in a branch of your bank and withdraw good amount in one attempt to see off next week. Most of the people can do away with this. Some may still struggle but not to start riots.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 17 Nov 2016 18:54

SHQ have now reached home on the dot at 1815Hrs. Did not manage to get further details, but from what she said around 75% normalcy has been restored in her branch (rural branch of a PSU bank). They had also opened up only at 1000Hrs; their normal opening times.

VikasRaina wrote:The risk that NM runs with this grand scheme is that even those who are supporting him will turn against him if liquidity crunch doesn't improve in next couple of weeks in the short run and if there is no impact of this exercise on common man in the long run like corruption going down, better governance, RE becoming cheaper and few big crocs behind the bar.

I tend to agree with you. This move went on so far may be purely on the personal charisma of NaMo. The BJP as a party would have done nothing (just like the Congress) if that was not the case. So now there is a huge additional responsibility of showing the results.

I should not be saying this but still. One sure way would be to use another round of "patriotism" bout and give out the statistics of the hawala money and the number of such rackets busted and the money seized. From what I have seen (as comments) in various reports people are extremely happy when such reports come out. "Currency notes worth nnnn lakhs seized from a train, two arrested",is much more appreciated than compared to "NaMo/RBI asks Cooperative banks to cooperate". I have only seen the reports of the second type (of seizures & arrests) slowly trickling in tomorrow.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Nov 2016 18:56

With peak traffic over there is hardly any risk of a crisis except one created by vested interests like Khujli.

The only other scenario is if the currency supply is disrupted e.g another batch of faulty prints.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Nov 2016 19:01

http://newsalert.thehindubusinessline.c ... 1/hind2214
Can’t escape law by showing sudden jump in income: Jaitley

Government today said people trying to adjust their declared black money by showing sudden jump in their income for the current fiscal cannot escape the law by paying tax at applicable rates.
---------------->
Anyone who thinks this is over is mistaken. Scrutiny of deposits as well as the next IT filing will be parsed to find past tax dodgers. i am not talking of RE/Gold/Foreign account related action.

chandrasekaran · Post by **chandrasekaran** » 17 Nov 2016 19:03

VikasRaina wrote:The risk that NM runs with this grand scheme is that even those who are supporting him will turn against him if liquidity crunch doesn't improve in next couple of weeks in the short run and if there is no impact of this exercise on common man in the long run like corruption going down, better governance, RE becoming cheaper and few big crocs behind the bar.

Yes there is liquidity crunch, but its not that bad. Any legitimate account holder can visit his bank branch and withdraw. Its as simple as that. The govt. is monitoring the situation closely and is taking actions almost on a daily if not hourly basis.

VikasRaina wrote: Punjab and UP elections will show how common man has perceived this tumultuous event.
Nope, I did not meet any poor or rich man doing 'Jai ho Modi' in last few days but Now I have started seeing people in actual life and SM who think that this was not a proper thought thru exercise and was done to shore up his image. You can not call everyone AAP , Leftists or Congress supporter if they complain genuinely.

Not one of them, even the most die hard opposers of this move, have said that Modi did this to shore up his image. Yes, many people have told me that this could have been executed better, but not one has questioned the motive. In fact, as pointed to by Suraj (or some other poster), the immense good will that Modi has amongst public is what is making people put up with this. I don't think anyone else in India has his stature and trust benefit amongst the masses.

VikasRaina wrote: PS: Some one pls tell me that if the whole purpose of this exercise was to bring in cash component of BM back into the system, What universe would have fallen if GoI had given 6 months to exchange all high denomination currency notes.
With the kind of slow and corrupt Judiciary we have, do we realistically think that anyone would be sent behind the bars in next 20 years for hoarding BM.

6 months heads up, all money safely shipped abroad and brought in via Hawala, and in the middle another 20% increase in counterfeit notes when it comes back. Opposition would have spent crores to organize and stage manage bandhs and dharnas and the likes. Our presstitutes would have blared 24x7 on how evil Modi is. The reason why this has worked so far is because of the surprise element.

In another week or 10 days, much before the Dec 30th deadline, things will be back to normal.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 17 Nov 2016 19:06

What "peak traffic over"? It's yet to start.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_fb

Why the corrupt rich will welcome Modi’s ‘surgical strike on corruption’
Jayati Ghosh
The sudden withdrawal of 500- and 1,000-rupee notes will batter India’s currency-reliant poor and middle classes, leaving tax evaders unscathed
Effigy of Narendra Modi, protest over de-monetisation of 500- and 1,000-rupee
Protesters display an effigy of Narendra Modi as they denounce his rapid demonetisation. Photograph: Dibyangshu Sarkar/AFP/Getty Images
Tuesday 15 November 2016

Narendra Modi came to power in India on a promise to end corruption. Halfway into his tenure, little seems to have happened to achieve this goal. The most obvious steps – such as taking a strong line on the known illegal accounts held in Swiss banks and tax havens, or ending the ability to hold shares without revealing your identity, or making funding of political parties transparent – have simply not been taken. People were beginning to murmur that the government had not lived up to its grandiose promises.

Your money's no good: rupee note cancellation plunges India into panic

So last week Modi did some more of the smoke and mirrors stuff that he is so good at: a shock announcement in a blaze of publicity designed to show that he is serious about ending corruption, even though the actual impact is quite different. At 8pm on Tuesday evening he announced that from midnight all 500-rupee (£6) and 1,000-rupee notes would cease to be legal tender. He said this would flush out all the black money and get rid of the counterfeit notes that were being used by terrorists in their nefarious activities.

Demonetisation of bank notes is a common practice, but it is usually done gradually, allowing time for people to replace the old notes with new ones to prevent too much disruption of economic activity. By contrast this overnight shock is hugely destabilising. The suddenness is supposed to prevent hoarders of cash being able to use it to buy other assets – but that is a poor argument, since the government could have simply announced a time-bound demonetisation and then tracked large transactions.

In fact, only a small proportion of the funds received from illicit tax-evading activities is kept in the form of cash, and almost never by large players. They tend instead to buy real estate and other property, hold gold and stocks and shares and, most of all, move the money abroad. So this move touches only a tiny fraction of the assets accumulated through illegal activities. *(Or even move abroad like Mallya,the other Modi,and Indian arms dealers)
In any case, it also does nothing to control the source: not just bribery and corruption, but also inaccurate invoicing by companies, under-reporting of sales values and overstating costs, reporting non-existent transactions and so on. These don’t require cash: they are easier and faster using electronic means. Money on its own has no particular colour; as it flows through different transactions, it changes from white to black to grey.

Indians queue outside a bank in Allahabad to exchange 500- and 1,000-rupee notes.

But currency notes are absolutely crucial to India’s legal market economy. The two cancelled notes account for 86% of all the currency in circulation; over 90% of all transactions are conducted in cash, and over 85% of workers get their incomes in cash. With one stroke Modi dealt a crippling blow to all such exchange, affecting not just the “black market” he was supposedly targeting, but also almost every Indian. Ironically, the rich – more likely to be “cashless” – are relatively unscathed; it is the poor and the middle classes, hugely reliant on currency for daily activities, who are being battered.

The resulting chaos has been enormous, and shows no signs of ending. Pitfalls with Modi’s grand plan have been worsened by implementation ineptitude. Not enough new currency has been made available, so cash machines are empty and banks are stretched beyond capacity. People have been wasting hours in queues to collect small amounts of cash that are insufficient for normal activity. The new notes have come in the form of an even higher denomination (2,000 rupees) that is unhelpful for daily transactions, since no one has enough change for this amount.

The problems go beyond inconvenience. The lack of cash has reduced consumption and demand, which has had a knock-on effect on sales, traders’ incomes, production and employment. Traders are losing perishable stocks, daily labourers cannot find work because employers cannot pay in new notes, and small producers (who mostly don’t get bank loans) cannot get working capital from the moneylenders they rely on. Individual tragedies abound, with children not being fed, an inability to buy medicines for the sick, and, it is being reported, more than two dozen people dying while standing in queues, or being unable to pay for hospitals and medicines with the old money.

Farmers cannot afford to 'bear the pain for 50 days', as Modi asked in his emotional appeal
Farmers are in dire straits, some with freshly harvested crops that cannot be sold, others unable to purchase inputs for the next sowing season. They cannot afford to “bear the pain for 50 days”, as Modi asked in his emotional appeal, because they stand to lose everything for the last crop and for the coming one. And Indian women, 80% of whom don’t have a bank account, may now find they have to use their stashes of cash, and risk losing control of it, especially in the face of domestic abuse.

Ironically, a flourishing black market has emerged for the old notes, trading at a 20% discount. Big players can get away with a small loss and plan on restarting their illegal activities once the new notes are fully in circulation, since nothing is being done about that. But no one will compensate the millions of Indians who have lost incomes and employment in the intervening period. No wonder, when the government claimed that its latest “surgical strike” would involve some collateral damage, the Indian supreme court said this was more like a carpet bombing.

Modi’s penchant for optics rather than substance was always annoying; but this time it has acquired truly damaging proportions.

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 17 Nov 2016 19:09

I was speaking to a young office boy who works in my office. in his small town of Sawantwadi in Konkan, there is an acute cash shortage. But the townspeople are not so worried because it's a fairly close knit community and merchants are willing to give credit to their customers. That town is in the influence area of Narayan Rane but people are still supporting this move.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Nov 2016 19:12

Philip wrote:What "peak traffic over"? It's yet to start.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_fb

You had to quote a "Gurdian"? Oh I get it "Foreign" media is more creditable. That rag is a Modi hater like no one else going to the extent of callin Modi a murderer. The first para itself has 3 lies (Swiss bank, Pnote and election funding related) that I could counter from memory. But what is the use if folks are NOT willing to use their mind and mindlessly repeating lies sprouted by *Foreign* media.

You could have used an Indian source all of which are closer to the ground no. Btw the footfall to the Banks has decreased. Is that not proof enough?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 17 Nov 2016 19:19

Deleted

salaam · Post by **salaam** » 17 Nov 2016 19:25

Philip wrote:Footfall to the banks decreased? Yes,because there's no money!I've spent 3 days trying to exchange a few useless notes and even by 11 am there's nothing.If you believe in the bullsh*t propaganda and not recognise the reality taking place in the streets,enjoy your delusions. My friends are tearing their hair out as to how they're going to pay workers, contract labour, What % of Indians have bank accts,credit cards,etc>?

This entire exercise has been conceived by a cretin,implemented by an idiot and managed by morons>

Reported. Had enough of this negativity.

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 17 Nov 2016 19:26

pankajs wrote:http://newsalert.thehindubusinessline.c ... 1/hind2214
Can’t escape law by showing sudden jump in income: Jaitley

Government today said people trying to adjust their declared black money by showing sudden jump in their income for the current fiscal cannot escape the law by paying tax at applicable rates.
---------------->
Anyone who thinks this is over is mistaken. Scrutiny of deposits as well as the next IT filing will be parsed to find past tax dodgers. i am not talking of RE/Gold/Foreign account related action.

Of coarse GOI would have thought about this. Else people would be paying 30% now as tax and get away while the rate was 45% in Income declaration scheme. That would be really absurd. IT dept will verify previous years' returns for significant spikes in reported income this year. If its 20-30% above average and if for those with say 1Cr income, perhaps IT may ignore for now, and only focus on big fishes. But then IT can later scrutinise even these medium fishes later at leisure. What matters is the money coming out in light. After that people are really at the mercy of IT dept and their willingness to pursue cases based on their (and GOI's) assessment of ROI overall, economically and politically too.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Nov 2016 19:27

Philip wrote:Footfall to the banks decreased? Yes,because there's no money!I've spent 3 days trying to exchange a few useless notes and even by 11 am there's nothing.If you believe in the bullsh*t propaganda and not recognise the reality taking place in the streets,enjoy your delusions. My friends are tearing their hair out as to how they're going to pay workers, contract labour, What % of Indians have bank accts,credit cards,etc>?

This entire exercise has been conceived by a cretin,implemented by an idiot and managed by morons>

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11 ... -daughter/
Lavish wedding for Indian politician’s daughter causes uproar

Most reports on this forum confirm banks operating and dispensing cash. This is NOT MY view. So your experience was the opposite but that does not mean that is the experience across India. If you believe in the bullsh*t propaganda enjoy your delusions.

BTW, What has Modi got to do with Reddy marriage? Red herring as far as the issue at hand is concerned.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 17 Nov 2016 19:32

JayS wrote:
Bart S wrote:
IMPS is instant, 24x7 irrespective of bank holidays etc. UPI (which uses IMPS as its core infrastructure) is instantaneous as well.

I have not used RTGS but I understand that it is pretty fast as well, typically a few minutes. And transfers between accounts in the same bank is instant too.
For some stupid reason, I once found out that, SBI does not allow IMPS outbound transactions on Saving accounts after 8pm. Totally inexplicable.

SBI seems to behind the curve on a lot of the app/online stuff, which is strange since they all use the same or similar core banking systems. SBI btw has yet to release a UPI app. Probably because they don't have IMPS (on which UPI is based) properly set up as you mentioned.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 17 Nov 2016 19:37

Philip wrote:Footfall to the banks decreased? Yes,because there's no money!I've spent 3 days trying to exchange a few useless notes and even by 11 am there's nothing.If you believe in the bullsh*t propaganda and not recognise the reality taking place in the streets,enjoy your delusions. My friends are tearing their hair out as to how they're going to pay workers, contract labour, What % of Indians have bank accts,credit cards,etc>?

This entire exercise has been conceived by a cretin,implemented by an idiot and managed by morons>

I've stood in line as has my wife on separate occasions. Both were done in about 3 hours separately. It was inconvenient but we did it.

I'm not sure what line you've stood in that you couldn't get your notes exchanged over three days.

shyamal · Post by **shyamal** » 17 Nov 2016 19:38

vinod wrote:
shyamal wrote:If this situation continues on next Monday then you wont need troublemakers. Those wholeheartedly supporting till now will not want to suffer any more. People have been very patient till now. There is a limit to that.

Not everyone is middle-class IT-savvy folks like us.
Can you please give an example of a person who might resort to any violence... of course, other than the guys with the black money.

Most small businesses of non-essential goods(corner stationary shop, sweet shop, tiny garment shops, flower stalls, fruit stall, roadside eateries) are seeing 70 to 80% drop in sales. They are weathering through as they assumed that this will be a 2 week pain and around 24th Nov everything will be back to normal. How long do you thing they can sustain? Another week - if the stall owner does not earn anything then he cannot pay his employee any wage. They do not have any cushion left. After that either they starve or they loot.

Those selling essential commodities like vegetables, groceries are basically giving credit to their customers. They too have assumed the liquidity crunch to be for 2 weeks. They cannot sustain any longer. And no - in lower income areas the shops are not going to convert to credit cards as none of their customers have credit card. My driver and security guard is never going to qualify for one. What happens when those groceries down their shutter next wednesday? Don't you think looting is a real possibility?

Riots have not started till now because politicians do not have the ready cash right now to start one. After next week you will not need a politician to start one.

I am wholeheartedly in favor of this move. I am completely in support for restricting cash transactions above Rs 5000. I just think it will be completely counter-productive to restrict low-denomination liquidity. The whole scheme will lose public support very fast if people have to suffer longer. Even the staunchest supporters are growing tired.

BTW - I have not suffered at all as I can do almost everything by credit cards. But over the last 1 week I have purchased almost exclusively from the supermarket and not patronized the local small shops that I usually spend money in.

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 17 Nov 2016 19:39

Philip wrote:What "peak traffic over"? It's yet to start.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_fb
Why the corrupt rich will welcome Modi’s ‘surgical strike on corruption’
Jayati Ghosh

Jayati Ghosh ? ... Guardian of UK ??

Great ... Guardian is one of the most unreasonable newspapers of the world ... it will even accuse GOD of being right-wing extremist, a vile religious criminal and write 2 opinion articles accusing God of all fictitious lies.

You want me to believe an article that Guardian has published about our PM Modi and worse written by a hard-leftist like Jayati Ghosh ?. Even NYTimes is better in such a scenario (in relative comparison).

Maybe you don't remember what Guardian wrote about PM Modi when he visited UK last year in November 2015 ... they got a zero-brain moron artist Anish Kapoor to do a journalistic 'hit-job' on him and write lies about him.
Read that Opinion article : 12 November 2015 - India is being ruled by a Hindu Taliban

No PM like Modi has fought for the rights of women .. whether it is the Sukanya Samridhi Savings Scheme or the Beti-Padhao, Beti-Bachao programs or the 'Subsidised-LPG-Scheme' for Women and so on.

Do you still believe everything the guardian writes about our PM Modi ?. that pathetic sh*t of a leftist newspaper from our erstwhile colonial rulers ?.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 17 Nov 2016 19:40

Some people here need to come out of their air conditioned IT vity bubble. 100% cashless? PAN number for above Rs.500 transactions?! People here saying that all kind of workers and labour can be paid via cheque!

Cash will never go out in India. We need to work within realistic constraints and prevent further generation of BM.

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 17 Nov 2016 19:42

An OT question ... why is it that most of the anti-India, anti-Hinduism crusaders both with in India and many times outside have Bengali sounding names ?. Is that certain culture .. a culture with serious inferiority complex in present modern day India ?.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 17 Nov 2016 19:43

Phillip, Jayati Ghosh writes for Frontline regularly. Quaoting such people in your rants undermines your credibility. Suggest doing some fact checking before doing so.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Nov 2016 19:48

Philip wrote:What "peak traffic over"? It's yet to start.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... are_btn_fb

In any case, it also does nothing to control the source: not just bribery and corruption, but also inaccurate invoicing by companies, under-reporting of sales values and overstating costs, reporting non-existent transactions and so on.

Of course these are all perfectly true but what these Einsteins fail to see is that "corruption" is only partly tax evasion. This article and a series of others howling that demonetization does not affect corruption are only partially right. they have the facts before their eyes but can't put two and two together.

What are the facts? India is a cash reliant economy. India has a lot of poor people who will suck up cash if teye can get it.

That is exactly what is done by all major political parties. You have yourself alluded to Amma having roomfuls of cash. Mayawati, Mulayam, Laloo, Yechuri, Mamata are all reliant of cash-rich supporters who pay voters in cash. This voters are not going to get that cash now at election time. At other times they are not getting cash anyway. Cash drives elections. That is corruption too, and stopping that means stopping corruption. Why doesn't anyone admit it No cash, no bribes to voters.

So the corrupt practice of buying voters is taking a huge hit.

Let's face it. If the move to demonetize cash is so bad why are we not seeing huge demonstrations? I will answer that. The simple answer is that everyone is too busy waiting in line to get money to simply eat and cannot demonstrate. Fine. this sounds like a logical explanation. But if political parties had cash they could simply have arranged crowds of 5 to 10,000 people to riot and go and burn or stone something. It does not cast much. Arranging 500 buses and paying each rioter Rs 500 to throw a stone would barely cost a crore. That was peanuts in terms of the money in cash the average political party controls. Now they have NOTHING. Zilch. And the can't complain because they have all been dishonest.

And curiously - why is the Congress not that perturbed. Because the Congress, over the decades has developed "other sources" If regional parties fail it will be to the advantage of Congress also. But even Congress can't pay protesters in cash

shyamal · Post by **shyamal** » 17 Nov 2016 19:49

I have stopped reading all opinion pieces.
Phillip - which city are you from? At least in Kolkata there is no dearth of cash in banks.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 17 Nov 2016 19:49

JayS wrote:
OK please give your nuanced opinion on how spending some money by cash is different than spending the exact same money by debit card..??

Cash in your hand is different from cash in your bank.

Cash in the bank means you are a creditor of the bank and thus depends on the vargaries of the financial system.

Cash in your hand makes you a creditor of the financial system.

If a government decides to double the money supply, the cash in your hand gives you a higher buying power than a debit card because if the trust in the system is broken, the people will accept paper in extremis rather than a claim in the system. Exters inverse pyramid explains this concept.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 17 Nov 2016 19:51

shiv wrote:Arranging 500 buses and paying each rioter Rs 500 to throw a stone would barely cost a crore. That was peanuts in terms of the money in cash the average political party controls. Now they have NOTHING. Zilch. And the can't complain because they have all been dishonest.

Woman arsonist set afire 42 buses for biryani & Rs 100.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Nov 2016 19:51

SaraLax wrote:An OT question ... why is it that most of the anti-India, anti-Hinduism crusaders both with in India and many times outside have Bengali sounding names ?. Is that certain culture .. a culture with serious inferiority complex in present modern day India ?.

First to come in contact with the brutards and hence the longest under their spell (Inferiority of Indian culture/society). Kolkatta was the capital before Delhi. Heavy dose of Marxist philosophy.

Taken together *can* (i.e in some folks) create one of the most vicious mix the most self loathing individuals. JNU is the most recent place for turning out such cretins (Credit Praveen Swami; I first heard that word from him)

habal · Post by **habal** » 17 Nov 2016 19:56

If Modi loses elections, then next govt coming in can study this in detail and do another demonitisation giving special focus on BJP run states and curtailing supply of new currency in those specific states. This present discrimination is resulting in economic throttling or if it stretches for longer periods even fiscal blackmail in non-BJP states.

Right now ₹500 only launched in aryavart of MP, MH & dilli (to some extent unavoidable). Rest are mlechchas or outliers who cannot be trusted.

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 17 Nov 2016 19:59

Hmm...So, some people here (and other places like twitter, offices) are saying, in coming days many would start losing patience. If this is the level of patience and attitude that our countrymen have - "I don't care, do whatever it takes, just don't trouble me..", then I don't think we will ever improve as a country/Society. In fact to me, we don't deserve any better than what we have today. People would suffer due to corruption for entire lives, but wouldn't show patience for few months or years if all out war comes against corruption..?? To remove the menace of corruption from India, it will take a revolution on grand scale, something like Freedom Fight. And revolutions don't happen without sacrifices.

Its a big shame on the part of citizens to whine for such small cost for long term gain. Thank god our soldiers don't lose patience in a week or so standing on the borders in some of the toughest conditions in the world for the country. And back at home people cannot even co-operate for 50 days..?? And then same people who are talking about losing patience, talk about how country should go to War with pakis every other days, without thinking what cost soldiers or people on borders will have to pay for that. Especially when the lower strata folks are showing far more understanding and co-operation in the situation and willing to go cashless, so called educated folks in white collar jobs/businesses whine about everything. Appalling and shameful behaviour I would say.

I am afraid, one day we will have to say - "Modi deserved to be India's PM, but Indians didn't deserve Modi as their PM..."

vina · Post by **vina** » 17 Nov 2016 19:59

shyamal wrote: And no - in lower income areas the shops are not going to convert to credit cards as none of their customers have credit card. My driver and security guard is never going to qualify for one. What happens when those groceries down their shutter next wednesday? Don't you think looting is a real possibility?

Please explain to me. What does ANY of this have to do with credit ? Both your driver and guard probably already have a bank account (they receive LPG subsidies!) , in addition, they have cell phones, there are stored value cards. None of them need any credit. Even today, if anyone WANTS (including your driver) they can go and buy stuff (atleast in most cities and towns) with their ATM cards.

In fact, I have been paying my driver electronically for the past 4 YEARS. I helped our maid open a bank account so that she can receive her DBT for her gas connection ! I am planning to pay her salary online as well going forward! She just has been resisting using the bank account until now for whatever reason (largely inertia.. she insists on cash, now I will tell her, if you want cash, go withdraw it yourself!)

bharotshontan · Post by **bharotshontan** » 17 Nov 2016 20:01

SaraLax wrote:An OT question ... why is it that most of the anti-India, anti-Hinduism crusaders both with in India and many times outside have Bengali sounding names ?. Is that certain culture .. a culture with serious inferiority complex in present modern day India ?.

It's ever since Gandhi, Patel and Nehru ganged up on Netaji Bose, this victim complex started in Bengalis... and by Bengalis we're all meaning here only the elite subset of that which would be mainly from Kolkata, upper middle class, English school educated for last four or five generations, caste wise BBK (Brahmin or Baidya or Kayastha), etc. I'm part of this crew as well. There's a good thread I was reading in the General Discussion forum about Bengali origins which has some insightful posts on there regarding this if you're interested.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 17 Nov 2016 20:03

Paul wrote:Phillip, Jayati Ghosh writes for Frontline regularly. Quaoting such people in your rants undermines your credibility. Suggest doing some fact checking before doing so.

isn't Jayati Ghosh from JNU??

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 17 Nov 2016 20:07

habal wrote:If Modi loses elections, then next govt coming in can study this in detail and do another demonitisation giving special focus on BJP run states and curtailing suppy of new currency in those specific states. This present discrimination is resulting in economic throttling or if it stretches for longer periods even fiscal blackmail in non-BJP states.

Right now ₹500 only launched in aryavart of MP, MH & dilli (to some extent unavoidable). Rest are mlechchas or outliers who cannot be trusted.

I have been thinking on this for two days. According to IT dept, MH pays 40% of all the IT in India, and Delhi 13% at second place. I would assume the white wealth is concentrated in these two places. Could this be the reason..?? I can think of many counter-points though.

shyamal · Post by **shyamal** » 17 Nov 2016 20:10

vina wrote:
shyamal wrote: And no - in lower income areas the shops are not going to convert to credit cards as none of their customers have credit card. My driver and security guard is never going to qualify for one. What happens when those groceries down their shutter next wednesday? Don't you think looting is a real possibility?
Please explain to me. What does ANY of this have to do with credit ? Both your driver and guard probably already have a bank account (they receive LPG subsidies!) , in addition, they have cell phones, there are stored value cards. None of them need any credit. Even today, if anyone WANTS (including your driver) they can go and buy stuff (atleast in most cities and towns) with their ATM cards.

In fact, I have been paying my driver electronically for the past 4 YEARS. I helped our maid open a bank account so that she can receive her DBT for her gas connection ! I am planning to pay her salary online as well going forward! She just has been resisting using the bank account until now for whatever reason (largely inertia.. she insists on cash, now I will tell her, if you want cash, go withdraw it yourself!)

My driver has an account in a PSU bank to receive subsidies he receives for his daughter. They have no LPG connection. He has no ATM card.
My security guard(most of them in my apartment complex) are migrants from UP and Bihar and stay in Kolkata as single men. No LPG connection. They may have bank account but no ATM card.
Their phones are basic phones. They will not be able to pay anything with it. They are either all cash or credit from local small merchants.

I have been asking my driver(and maid) from the first day if they need any help. They are proud people are always insisted they were fine. Yesterday my driver indicated trouble(he usually shops one in a fortnight) and I purchased groceries for him(to last till month end) from a supermarket with my CC.

Even today he is very gung ho about the move. Just as I am.
But I do recognize that people are being seriously inconvenienced.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 17 Nov 2016 20:13

@Philip

I did not bother to go through that article. If this Jayati Ghosh is the JNU academic - she is a Marxist and extremely anti-Hindutva, anti-BJP, anti-Modi, etc, etc. Besides she is writing in Guardian which asked Indians to vote for RG. I am not sure why you didn't get money. Everyone I have spoken to has gotten money.

Liquidity in the cash economy is an issue. Business is indeed down. It is extremely crucial that those lower down the value chain who have less staying power get back to business. For that to happen the withdrawal limit needs to be raised now that liquidity in banks is not an issue. I believe it has been raised for weddings and agriculture. It should be be raised for others as well.

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 17 Nov 2016 20:15

Shaktimaan wrote:I was speaking to a young office boy who works in my office. in his small town of Sawantwadi in Konkan, there is an acute cash shortage. But the townspeople are not so worried because it's a fairly close knit community and merchants are willing to give credit to their customers. That town is in the influence area of Narayan Rane but people are still supporting this move.

Sir - This is the nature of most of the Indian people in general and more so in rural areas. They are all simple in living and hopefully they stay the same & stop adopting the fake situations & scenarios shown in TVs & etc.

All we need is one man or woman to show an example of sharing/caring and then people will all come together & help each other (often in a mostly silent manner) in whatever the worst situation they may be caught in. I have seen people sharing medicines, food items, water, clothes, mobiles on low battery charges with no power source to recharge, cook for 10 people in one go for 3 days continuously, buying milk when it is already available in very low volumes and give it away happily for babies/small kids/pregnant ladies in the locality, pooling fuel from automobiles & sharing with all of them even as floods were raging outside for nearly 3 days.

During last year's massive flood in Chennai & suburbs - I have seen a lot of humanity shown by complete strangers in the worst of unimaginable circumstances (when there was no electricity for 6 days continuously, no telecom connectivity, no hospitals and worse - even when we had no clean water supply due to no provision for wells in apartments & also no power - people were sharing whatever water they could go out wading in hip level water & get from someone or somewhere outside).

We need to stay calm and think our problems through.

The current demonetization is only a temporary scenario and not a very hard scenario for most people to put up with because they know things will come back to normal soon.