Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Hari Seldon » 09 Dec 2016 02:04

Tour de force, suraj san. pranaams.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby raj-senthil » 09 Dec 2016 02:05

Demonetisation: ED checks records of over 50 bank branches

NEW DELHI: The Enforcement Directorate today today launched an operation to inquire about deposits at over 50 bank branches, with a special eye on Jan Dhan, student and dormant accounts, across the country to detect money laundering and hawala instances through these channels.

Multiple teams of the ED, accompanied by auditors from the Department of Financial Services in the Finance Ministry, swooped early morning at these branches of at least 10 banks, both in the private and public sector, to "unearth huge deviation in the pattern of deposits after November 8."

The action has been taken in wake of allegations to the effect that certain bank officials are involved in conversion of black money into white in lieu of their commission for facilitating the same," the agency said in a statement.

The agency said it is keeping a watch on those accounts in which huge amount of money has been deposited post demonetisation.
ED said its sleuths are "also checking those accounts that have shown suspicious transactions after demonetisation. The teams inquired the accounts where sudden spike in deposits and thereafter corresponding transfers have taken place.

"Special accounts like Jan Dhan, student accounts and dormant accounts would also be the focus area of investigations."

The agency conducted the operations at branches located in major cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Chennai and others based on records of transaction of these branches where the maximum amount of old notes have been deposited or huge cash has been deposited in bank accounts in one go or in a staggered fashion giving rise to suspicion of suspect deposits.

"Examination of cash book and ledger of banks on random basis were done to see which denomination notes and how much came out when business of the day started, notes deposited and received till the end of the day were analysed and verified.

"Special attention was paid to third party deposits with or without authority letters including scrutiny of shell companies," it said at the end of operations late evening.


he statement added that the inquiries were made to determine transactions "in light of RBI Notification of November 8, 2016 which required every bank to submit details of exchange of currency in Annexure-6 on a daily basis."

The ED, tasked with enforcing two important laws to check financial crimes--Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) and Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA)--had also sourced Suspicious Transaction Reports (STRs) and Cash Transaction Reports (CTRs) of the banks under scanner from various financial intelligence agencies before launching the operation.

The agency has arrested two Axis Bank employees working at a branch in Delhi and a Chartered Accountant while probing a similar instance of using old currency to allegedly convert black money into white.

ED had also conducted searches at 40 locations across the country in order to check black money held with currency exchanges, hawala dealers and others

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Yayavar » 09 Dec 2016 02:29

chola wrote:
Yayavar wrote:^^what about expanding the tax base? That one item itself should improve things


Expanding the tax base will help the GOI but it will not improve the enonomy. Now the GOI can use its new found wealth to build infrastructure, etc. that will improve the economy in the future. But no, pushing economic activity from black to white will not improve the economy by itself.


Nothing is by itself. My point was that restricting the discussion to BM or short-term contraction of economy is limiting. The banks have got an influx of cash, the GOI will get more in taxes - those two by itself are big impetus for long-term upsurge. BM to white is part of above even if some escape and some devise new methods in future.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Dipanker » 09 Dec 2016 03:12

Yayavar wrote:Nothing is by itself. My point was that restricting the discussion to BM or short-term contraction of economy is limiting. The banks have got an influx of cash, the GOI will get more in taxes - those two by itself are big impetus for long-term upsurge. BM to white is part of above even if some escape and some devise new methods in future.


The cash influx you are talking about does not belong to the banks, it belongs to the people (well most of it) who can withdraw it anytime. RBI is expecting to get almost all of the floating Rs 14-15 lakhs crores old notes in 500, 1000 denom. back so there is no anticipated windfall of 3 - 4 lakhs crores either which presumably could have been used for monetizing the banks to tide over the massive write off of NPA's worth several lakhs crores.

Yes, the govt. tax base will definitely expand because of digitization and GOI has been working in this direction for last 5 - 6 years, adhar card and all. IMO the govt. could have achieved its goal in a more organized way than the current Shock and Awe approach which according to some estimates can cost the economy up to several lakhs cores in terms of direct and indirect cost and can take number of years to recover even with the expanded tax base.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby shyamal » 09 Dec 2016 03:13

I don't trust MSM.
Specially in this Demonetization they have lied and mis-reported with horrible bias.

I have posted only about my personal experience in this thread. My earlier posts were of positive response to this move that I saw in my locality.
The recent ones are about the anger and cynicism that I see in the last one week. I am not forming my opinion based on MSM. Its ground level experience albeit of a miniscule part of the country.
I am a supporter of this move and I have not faced any trouble myself - I have bank transfers, credit cards and smartphones. But I hope that does not disqualify me from reporting what I see with my own eyes around me.

There needs to be -
1. dispatch of small denomination asap. till today 100s and 500s are elusive. ATM(the few that work sporadically) only give out 2000.
2. Arrest and public shaming of some big fish asap.

As I posted earlier - it was a horrible move by Gadkari to have that wedding at this time.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 09 Dec 2016 04:11

This 'anticipated windfall' thing is a press creation. I cannot find any reference to GoI or RBI officially stating any such plan. It's essentially a 'theoretically GoI could have done this but now they can't! Fail!' strawman.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby achoudhury » 09 Dec 2016 04:36

Some of the tactical move has not gone well off late. My immediate family is big Modi supporter and support demonetization but their expectation was that it will give a big blow to BM holders. This does not seem likely. Yes, long term advantages are still there but this shock and awe required some spectacular results like 3-4 lac crore of bm getting extinguished and few big fish getting caught. Now we know that may be all of bm will find its way through bank. Theoretically, it can still be taxed by taxmen, but that will be at mercy of revenue officials. We all know how honest these guys have been. Public, at large, will demand some retribution or otherwise there will be political cost. Modi is astute politician and he will know which way the wind is blowing. Modi's hand is forced and now he must strike at Benami property ruthlessly, esp make some example of big politicians, bureaucrats and real estate guys. Basically an all out war needs to be fought. Yes, all of this will have economic cost but I think majority of people will absorb that cost if they see that system is getting transparent and culprits are being penalized.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 09 Dec 2016 04:59

achoudhury wrote:Now we know that may be all of bm will find its way through bank. Theoretically, it can still be taxed by taxmen, but that will be at mercy of revenue officials.

That's not true.
Government to eliminate taxman's discretion, lower stamp duty
This was preceded by the 2016 IT Act Amendment being passed:
THE TAXATION LAWS (AMENDMENT) ACT, 2016
The amendment essentially sets fixed penalties for all deposits made in the demonetization effort. By explicitly clarifying the prescribed punishment by passing a law to that effect, the next step is just to enforce it. This ensures there's no scope for discretion, and entirely a question of ensuring the tax men do implement the law in full, which PMO and FinMin will track, since they already have RBI data.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Rishirishi » 09 Dec 2016 05:25

3 months down the line, when there are lots of Rs 500 and 100 rupee notes, it would be time to withdraw the RS 2000 notes.:)

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby sum » 09 Dec 2016 06:02

Manish_Sharma wrote:Since last evening Zee News has started introducing a little bit of noise about peoples' tolerance at breaking point.
Until day before yesterday they were 100% with govt. on this issue.

I have been seeing this same theme since almost Nov 10 about "almost breaking point"/"about to break" and yet not even a single even minor instance has happened in such a huge country of ours with tons of vested interests wanting such things to anways happen.

I wonder what is really going on here?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Viv S » 09 Dec 2016 06:06

Suraj wrote:The amendment essentially sets fixed penalties for all deposits made in the demonetization effort. By explicitly clarifying the prescribed punishment by passing a law to that effect, the next step is just to enforce it. This ensures there's no scope for discretion, and entirely a question of ensuring the tax men do implement the law in full, which PMO and FinMin will track, since they already have RBI data.

That only eliminates discretionary power wrt the punitive element. Discretion in assessment, which is the bigger concern, will still persist.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby symontk » 09 Dec 2016 06:14

Suraj wrote:Another claim is 'should have planned this better'. But that's a very superficial argument.


It is not superficial argument, all Govt institutions should have preferred card transactions instead of cash before the announcement. It would have helped people move to card transactions. Only lately railways removed the additional surcharge for card. When Govt itself is preferring cash transactions, how can it ask people to move to a cashless economy

Those steps should have been done before hand. Also these steps will not reveal the intention to DeMo

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Nitesh » 09 Dec 2016 06:18

Rishirishi wrote:3 months down the line, when there are lots of Rs 500 and 100 rupee notes, it would be time to withdraw the RS 2000 notes.:)

Will 500 notes remain in circulation? I have doubts :mrgreen:

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 09 Dec 2016 06:40

Viv S wrote:
Suraj wrote:The amendment essentially sets fixed penalties for all deposits made in the demonetization effort. By explicitly clarifying the prescribed punishment by passing a law to that effect, the next step is just to enforce it. This ensures there's no scope for discretion, and entirely a question of ensuring the tax men do implement the law in full, which PMO and FinMin will track, since they already have RBI data.

That only eliminates discretionary power wrt the punitive element. Discretion in assessment, which is the bigger concern, will still persist.

No, the act sets out the details of who is assessed and who is not, as well as how much is assessed based on how the assessment was made - voluntary or not. While there will be problems at the human interface level, that's an execution and administration that applies in any administrative task.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby JwalaMukhi » 09 Dec 2016 06:46

One important aspect of this demonetization is a moral reset has been initiated. A platform has been provided by this, to conduct transactions honestly and eliminate bribery mindset. It is really upto people to carry this forward and build the eco-system towards corruption-free and honest transactions. If people revert back to old days with new structure, then people are driving it towards older ways but using newer denominations. Refusing bribes, requesting receipts and general shunning of nepotism to curry favors in small/big matters need to be encouraged with this new system by the stake holders, aka people themselves. Most of the people have understood and are accepting the price paid to rewire the mental make-up. Change is hard, but on the whole if there are more people who want to bias the system towards honesty and reward transperant system this is a golden opportunity. No easy way out. There will be pain. If people squander this, then one can go back and have generation-wise slogan of "corruption hatao" along the lines of "garibi hatao" but never do it. This truly is in the hands of people. Those who want will work towards it, rather than point scoring on the government. Mai-baap sarkar is being shunned by Modi dispensation, people need to grab this opportunity.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 09 Dec 2016 06:59

symontk wrote:
Suraj wrote:Another claim is 'should have planned this better'. But that's a very superficial argument.


It is not superficial argument, all Govt institutions should have preferred card transactions instead of cash before the announcement. It would have helped people move to card transactions. Only lately railways removed the additional surcharge for card. When Govt itself is preferring cash transactions, how can it ask people to move to a cashless economy

To begin with, you did what I suggested people *should* do - state what specifically was wrong and could have been done differently. So you're contradicting yourself because you're not being superficial in the first place :-)

The government did not ask people to move to cashless economy. In fact I can see no reference to it in Modi's speeches. He mentions black money again and again endless times. While there is an implicit encouragement of cashless transactions in general, and GoI does want to make all big ticket purchases cashless, GoI has not asserted that it wants to force basic economic activity to be cashless.

I think the card surcharges are a fair point, but they are not necessarily in the governments hands. The V/MC surcharges are their own corporate surcharges. Government can't directly demand waiver of such fees. Instead they push the central bank which in turn tries to get the issuers to waive fees. For example:
Nov 20:
Government leans on RBI to get banks to waive card fees, for now
Nov 23:
No transaction charges on debit card payments till 31 Dec: Govt
Today:
Banks may take Rs 1000 crore hit on card fee waiver

Generally something like this takes time to push the banking and commercial system to do. They obviously could not push for it before DeMo was announced because it would result in people guessing what was coming. In the longer term, no one will remember if it took a few days to get this done; it's a procedural task.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby sum » 09 Dec 2016 07:07

One important aspect of this demonetization is a moral reset has been initiated. A platform has been provided by this, to conduct transactions honestly and eliminate bribery mindset. It is really upto people to carry this forward and build the eco-system towards corruption-free and honest transactions.

+1
Thats all i see it as. The rest are just incidental advantages of it.

If people from every layer in top to bottom do not follow it and want to actively subvert, there is nothing any law or system can do about it

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby shiv » 09 Dec 2016 07:19

chetak wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:Since last evening Zee News has started introducing a little bit of noise about peoples' tolerance at breaking point. Though most of the time they propound the positivity of DeMo, even now.

Until day before yesterday they were 100% with govt. on this issue.



This programming seems to be standard across all channels now.

DDMitis

What amazes me is that the TV channels are not showing that opposition parliamentarians have only been shouting slogans in parliament. I hope none of these oiseaules ever gets elected again

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby shiv » 09 Dec 2016 09:24

Up until the mid 90s the predominant way to get cash in India was to go to the specific bank where you had a bank account, present a cheque or a challan and hand it to counter 1 where you would be handed a numbered brass token.

The person who took your cheque and that of all the others in the queue would then lift out a huge book - a "ledger" with your account details and check that you had the balance and then make the entries deducting the amount that you wanted to withdraw. Then your cheque/challan would be stamped as approved and it would be sent to the cashier's cubicle. The cashier would then call out the number of your brass token and you went to the window and received your money.

On good days this would take 15 minutes. On bad days 45 minutes or more. With this kind of banking system, having a bank account was a choice made for securing and saving money. For those who had cash rolling in - there was no need for a bank account for many. The poorest had no use for it. The really wealthy also had no use. The miniscule "middle class" had bank accounts for savings and for safekeeping of money. People with transferable jobs also had accounts because they were paid by cheque.

So India was a total cash economy as recently as the 1990s. But it was ATMs that made the distribution of cash very handy and I am sure ATMs also encouraged a lot of people to start bank accounts. Having used ATMs in the UK throughout the 1980s I was sure that this was something that would never come to India. I was amazed at the rapidity with which ATMs were introduced and interlinked between cities so that I could withdraw money outside of my home town and home branch. But ATMs only encouraged the cash economy. Of course phoren returned people like me were already using credit cards but the penetration was very low. Very few of my doctor colleagues in the 90s had anything to do with credit cards and that is true even today among a section of educated people. But debit cards have exploded ever since colleges started demanding bank accounts for their students and the twenty-somethings of India are familiar with debit cards cum ATM cards.

The "cashless" economy has grown exponentially along with the cash economy - but the cash economy has been allowed to survive outside the banking system. PAN numbers and Aadhaar were the first blows struck against the black economy. Demonetization is just another step - although it has caused some pain. But what it has done is forced the linking of cash with PAN and Aadhaar. A stimulation of a "less cash" (not cashless) economy is easier now by giving incentives to pay Caesar (the government) his dues in utility payments and property takes. The fact that cashless can be applied to autorickshaws and tea-shops is only a side effect, not the main intent.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Deans » 09 Dec 2016 09:43

Suraj, Very well articulated posts. I doubt people criticising this are aware that no exercise on this scale has been attempted anywhere in the world. There is no template of how it should be done and no pointers to what might go wrong. Even the example of `no plan surviving first contact with the enemy', assumed fairly standard plans and responses that prevailed in the 19th century, far less complex than this exercise.

The govt might have tried to push more cashless transactions, earlier & more aggressively. However, human behavior (reluctance to not use cash)
cannot be changed through gentle persuasion, pleading or even small incentives. It requires a shock like the one currently being administered to the system. The fact that Govt itself transacts in cash, to some extent, is not relevant. Govt departments do not generate BM on their own.
Certainly, with the benefit of hindsight (which is a wonderful thing for critics), GOI might have done things like implement some of the Shah committee recommendations on BM - like a ceiling on cash transactions and increasing the need to show a PAN at the time of cash purchase - which I assume will be done in due course. This could have made it a bit more difficult to launder money after 08th Nov, but I do not think the timing will make a great deal of difference in the overall scheme of things.

That said, I'd like to see a daily `tracker' showing how much money (with the break up in denomination) has been:
1. Printed 2. Reached the disbursement point & 3. Given to the public. This should be done daily with totals since 10th Nov. It will help identify bottlenecks in the system, once the data gets drilled down to cities and districts. I'm not sure if anyone has a clue where the new Rs 500 notes are.
I've made this suggestion to the Govt, online. The level of tax raids need to be stepped up and people arrested in a blaze of publicity (not just named and shamed). Delight at other people's discomfort is, I believe, what is sustaining public patience and GOI needs to win the perception battle in this regard.
Last edited by Deans on 09 Dec 2016 11:06, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Sachin » 09 Dec 2016 10:54

Deans wrote:The level of tax raids need to be stepped up and people arrested in a blaze of publicity (not just named and shamed). Delight at other people's discomfort is, I believe, what is sustaining public patience and GOI needs to win the perception battle in this regard.

100% agree with this. Not only raids, there has to be some real quick prosecution as well. I now get a feeling that the most crucial agency involved in the demonitisation exercise, the banks have let down the government big time. It is now out in the open that some banks (especially new generation banks) have played foul and gave away their new currency stash to their big time customers (who are also champs in hoarding black money). The banks rather than helping the poor people standing in ATM queues, have just handed over the bundles of new currency to the black money hoarders. Take the case at Bangalore. The two government officials who were caught got their new currency stash by colluding with bank managers as well as the owner of a company which was involved in stocking up the ATMs :evil: .

As for me the below news seems to be the most tragic. If every thing failed, I hoped at least the Hawala business which thrived in Kerala would come to a halt. It is quite known that one minority community was the whole sale dealers when it came to these, and they were buying up any land up for sale for any price asked.
Hawala transactions thrive giving premium rates for Riyal and Dirham......
Reports suggest that the hawala agents procured Rs.2000 notes from the Delhi and Mumbai branches of some new generation banks. In the Malabar region, ..
One name, which readily comes to my mind is that of Axis Bank. Even in their previous awatar as UTI bank, their deals were not clearly over the board (IIRC).

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Yagnasri » 09 Dec 2016 11:48

New Generation Banks, Cooperative Banks, Petrol bunks, etc. are all used. In many areas, New Gen Banks simply ignored customers and did what they want to do. You have to ask their customers about their conduct in this entire episode. I am not supporting PSU banks here. But I know for a fact that serious warnings were given to each and every one not to indulge in any mischief etc. and people who did get suspended etc. immediately. Private Banks as per my information used their cash reserves and fresh cash that was given to them "intelligently" and benefited.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby habal » 09 Dec 2016 12:04

my suggestion: just like coop banks, freeze a/c's of new generation banks like Axis Bank, ICICI, citibank, HDFC, Kotak & StanChart.
Stop giving them cash for 2 weeks. And then put them on drip feed.
If any a/c holder makes complaint against these banks as having denied cash, then immidiately report to ombudsman and freeze branch from conducting transation pending rbi auditing.

bada mazaa aayega.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Marten » 09 Dec 2016 12:07

Sir, since you understand the forensic audit aspect of this better than the rest of us, could you perhaps draw out a workflow for the ways in which the money is being laundered and how they can track down each participant? We need to find ways to contribute to this effort.

The entire ITO infrastructure would be fundamentally opposed to this entire episode and will not be providing any proactive inputs other than those required to survive in their roles until the next sarkar. ED is probably the last hope. I don't see even the nationalistic babus in this framework being able to chip in and survive. After all, their careers are supposed to last for 35 years while they expect each sarkar to only last 5-10. Sab iss hamaam me nirvastra hain!

PS: Habal saar, you seem opposed to the demo move owing to the repercussions. I understand that, but cannot understand suggestions like the ones given above. Are you seriously suggesting freezing the 30cr accounts? Or is that only a way to ensure Arun Jaitley and the babus guide NaMo to an early retirement.
PPS: The more I see this, the more it appears that AJ and babus have won their battle.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby habal » 09 Dec 2016 12:16

Marten saar, IT munnas should also feel da pain.

some of the suggestions they have given on this thread convince me what is wrong with our country.

sameple this:
humble farmers: bah humbug, freeze karo salon ko
self employed: saale behn***, yeb sab sabakh seekhenge saale
small farmer: yeh kya cheez hain !
businessman: jeena dushwar inke kaaran. utaro saalon ko gaadiyon se. saale audi chalate hain.
teacher: bah
pensioner: saare duniya par bhoj hain yeh. Just die already
senior citizen: shittizen
trader: modi will teach them a lesson
cooperative: bloddy commies

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby ragupta » 09 Dec 2016 13:10

There is enough cash, I travelled from Mumbai to nashik, kali peeli taxi (Black and Yellow) walo ke pass and all travel agents, Shirdi is full of cash. Small time vendors no issues with cash. Kids gaga on Modi jaisa karna hai. Only out of one lady I travelled in shared transport going to bank. rest showed no sign or frustration. I easily got cash and change for 2K and .5K.

The people in pain are those who stashed lot of cash, and trying to find ways, to either get rid to it or put in bank. I have friend with business they seem to be more hit, and angry because they are used to cash and do not want to change. those dealing with small amount already have cash. the rush at banks are mostly only from hired hands, because of this genuine people are also having trouble.

On the negative side, the banks have blocked international credit and debit card, there is problem due to that.
Although some places I was able to use International card, at many places showing Paytm and credit, I was not able to use credit as international card was declined.

Paytm would not take payment from International credit card. so that is an issue for travellers.

Overall people still do not have problems with the move. There only crib that it should have been better planned, like anyother thing, hind sight is 20-20.
Last edited by ragupta on 09 Dec 2016 18:09, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby a_bharat » 09 Dec 2016 13:48

Other than illiterate poor, nobody whining about inconvenience and loss of business deserves any consideration. Some people are hell-bent on continuing to deal only in cash and avoid paying taxes. Those who don't want to adapt to digital payments deserve to perish (although that is not likely to happen). It is not anyone's birth-right to deal only in (black) cash.

I personally had absolutely no problem with the cash situation; except for the maid and car-cleaner, I didn't have to use cash at all.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Prasad » 09 Dec 2016 13:49

Suraj, per sbi, as on nov 8th cash value in 500s, 1000s was 15.5 lac crores. Not 14.xx.

Also in the removed value of 11.xx lac crore, SBI think there is a sizeable bit of double counting. So actual number will be even lesser.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Picklu » 09 Dec 2016 14:06

I am still hopeful that at least 1-2 lakh won't come back when the dust settles

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Picklu » 09 Dec 2016 14:13

However the entire exercise has become like a poker game

Initial stage: 3 to 5 lakh won't come. That bluff has been called by BM holders.

Now most of it will come but does not mean white money. It seems that blaff is also being called. Once the money moves out of the account, the gov can investigate and send notice but what else? There are 1000s of individuals and companies who have evaded tax, on notice and still living free. Our fair and quick court system ki jai ho!

pankajs
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby pankajs » 09 Dec 2016 14:21

There is still quite a lot of cash out there. Not saying that it will not come back but what has not been deposited as of today may never come back. That is to say that it is too early to draw a firm conclusion.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby hanumadu » 09 Dec 2016 14:21

Prasad wrote:Suraj, per sbi, as on nov 8th cash value in 500s, 1000s was 15.5 lac crores. Not 14.xx.

Also in the removed value of 11.xx lac crore, SBI think there is a sizeable bit of double counting. So actual number will be even lesser.


One would think RBI would be aware of double counting. They should figure it out and put out the correct numbers because soon the deposits will start exceeding 15 lakh crores.

4.5 l crores distributed is a lot of money. That's 1/3 of the previous money in circulation.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby AdityaM » 09 Dec 2016 14:22

Went to withdraw some money from the bank, and the lines are just too long! had to return.
Driving past banks, one can see the hordes of people with no endgame in sight.
Can see a change of attitude in people from initial euphoria to disapproval on the management of this move.

How exactly does one withdraw their own money

AdityaM
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby AdityaM » 09 Dec 2016 14:24

Are the bank automated machines capable of catching fake currency.
When the govt itself felt that the quality of deceit was very good, then do these machines catch the high quality fakes?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Sachin » 09 Dec 2016 14:31

AdityaM wrote:Are the bank automated machines capable of catching fake currency.
When the govt itself felt that the quality of deceit was very good, then do these machines catch the high quality fakes?

My understanding is that they can. From what I heard the machine stops counting when it feels a fake not has been found. SHQ had once said that they had tried to make the automated machine count a set of empty blank sheets (roughly the same size & thickness of a currency note), but it stopped. Can double check and get back.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Sachin » 09 Dec 2016 14:44

In the mean while the case filed by Co.Op banks seems to be going no where..
SC asks Centre if co-op banks can be allowed to accept demonetised notes......
The Supreme Court on Friday asked the Centre to respond to whether district cooperative banks can be allowed to accept deposits in demonetised currency

It is the District Co.Op banks which has gone and filed this case, and they are said to be working under RBI guide lines with enough focus on KYC etc. Why they were denied the rights to exchange old notes is still unclear to me. But my gut feeling is that when it comes to the dealings between District Co.Op banks and the Primary Co.Op societies (banks!?) may be a bit shady and not verifiable by RBI. So don't know if it is the association/link with Primary Co.Ops which is messing up things for District & State Co.Op banks.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Subdas » 09 Dec 2016 14:54

NAMO is picking on things that are basically bad habits of the indian people. He picked swatch bharat because Indians have bad habit of littering and defacing in the open. He picked cash less as Indians have bad habit of paying everything in cash. People need to change their habits. Majority will change but some will not. Media will focus on those who will not and turn it into a false propaganda that this reform is failing. But when election time will come , people will vote enmass for NAMO. People love change of habit when it helps them.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Vikas » 09 Dec 2016 15:08

One year from Now, What would be the markers of a successful DeMo drive by Modi Ji.
No, lets not count election results since they are a different beast all together and in atleast Punjab, BJP is not a serious player while it is still a weak player in UP when compared with SP/BSP.

If we go back to the speech of 8th Nov by NM and make it as basis of defining success, We should see lower corruption, distinct fall in Terror/Maoist related activities, lower inflation and few big sharks behind the bars for illegal cash and hopefully a less expensive yet cleaner elections.

Would this be a fair matrix on which we can judge this Denom drive ?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Subdas » 09 Dec 2016 15:09

Long queues tell us that people are coming back many times a week to the bank to get cash. Now this could be the same model used by the BM folks when they were exchanging. They are sending their troops to saturate the banks - denial of service or DOS attack on the banks. Banks should use inks to fight the DOS attack.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Subdas » 09 Dec 2016 15:10

GE 2019 will be the gold standard to judge the positive effect of this reform on mango people.


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