Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 12 Dec 2016 11:21

ATMs run into legal hurdle

By FPJ Bureau | Nov 12, 2016:

New Delhi : Banks may not be able to restart their automated teller machines (ATMs) any time soon because of a legal hurdle created by an American company withdrawing its software licence to a private Indian company servicing over 40,000 ATMs for more than 30 leading public and private banks across India and warning banks not to use its software.

A realisation dawned on the Finance Ministry only on Friday when the ATMs did not start functioning as announced by Prime Minister Modi on Tuesday and the banks expressed its helplessness without recalibration of the machines and the software changes to allow dispensation of the new Rs 2,000 notes.

The Chennai-based Financial Software and Systems Private Limited (FSS) that was managing these ATMs through its own network of highly professional partners and vendors did not respond to the banks’ calls for recalibrating them in view of losing the licence it had from ACI Worldwide Inc. since 2001.

The 1975-incorporated ACI Worldwide, a payment systems company headquartered in Naples, Florida, providing electronic payment softwares, on Friday issued a public notice in newspapers through its Mumbai-based general manager for Middle East, Africa and South Asia, that it has terminated agreement with FSS with effect from November 1, 2016 and as such the banks cannot operate the FSSNet platform using its software products.

Warning that the banks and institutions taking the services from FSS to migrate from FSSNet platform, the notice says they will be infringing intellectual property rights and proprietary rights if the ACI’s soft products are used and ACI reserves its right to initiate appropriate legal action against such infringement.

The notice says the ACI issued a notice to FSS on August 02, 2016 to cure all breaches of its obligations under the agreement by September 01, 2016, failing which the agreement was to be terminated from November 1, 2016. Instead, FSS communicated on September 01, 2016 that it is not in breach of the agreement. “Since the breaches of the agreement were not cured by FSS, the agreement has been terminated with effect from September 01, 2016,” the notice added.

This explains failure of the RBI’s announcement Tuesday night that recalibration of the ATMs may take a while and that “once the ATMs are functional, you can withdraw from ATMs up to a maximum of Rs 2,000 per card per day up to 18 November, 2016 and the limit will be raised to Rs 4,000 per day per card from 19 November 2016 onwards.”

LOGISTICS: Both bankers and ATM service providers cite two major issues of logistic and quantum of money. They say the Rs 100 notes are in short supply and hence ATMs dispensing them are bound to run out of cash. The bankers are quite frank that it will take a couple of weeks for the dust to settle before cash withdrawals from ATMs become smooth as the ATMs are bound to run out of cash due to high demand and short supply of the notes.

Each ATM machine has only 3-4 cassettes that can hold cash in it to dispense. Each cassette has to be configured to dispense a particular value. So far, all ATMs were configured for Rs 100, Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 denomination notes. Official of a company (not FSS) that also manages the ATMs said: “Every ATM has ‘cassettes’ which can hold a particular denomination. To be able to provide Rs 2,000 denomination notes, the cassettes have to be configured, which will take time.” His company is trying to configure one cassette for Rs 50 notes, the software for which is available with it unlike the Rs 2,000 cassettes to be designed and then configures.

Subdas · Post by **Subdas** » 12 Dec 2016 11:39

In Didi Land, first paid media report about the gradual start of the adoption of digital notes by small business. They ran a report where road side stalls have started to display PAYTM signs.

Subdas · Post by **Subdas** » 12 Dec 2016 11:40

Doctors are hiking up their fees by 30% to cover their tax in DIDI LAND. I am sure MODI AXE is going to fall on them soon.

Subdas · Post by **Subdas** » 12 Dec 2016 11:50

Post note bandi, if u are a worker and donot have a bank account near your home, u are in deep trouble. Illegal workers, migrant workers are being hit. MIgrant workers, some illegal, in gold industry in Gujrat headed back home causing much taklif to DIDI. Also, peaceful workers donot believe in banking system and hence they are also being hit hard causing double taklif to DIDI

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 12 Dec 2016 11:59

On the Demonitisation front..

Murky Bulgarian deal: ED to confiscate Rs 58 Cr......
This is from Kochi, Kerala.
Thrissur bank under probe for turning black money into white......
"Reknown" Jeweller, and a Quarry owner are the main suspects.
400-1000% rise in digital transactions post demonetisation......
This about the all India level changes.

sdas1645 wrote:MIgrant workers, some illegal, in gold industry in Gujrat headed back home causing much taklif to DIDI. Also, peaceful workers donot believe in banking system and hence they are also being hit hard causing double taklif to DIDI

Same is the case in Kerala. Two weeks back there were reports of large scale "return to unit" done by the Bengali (or Bangladeshi) migrant labour working in Kerala. They also had the same problem, many did not have any ID proof to open up accounts.

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 12 Dec 2016 12:21

This is an open sheet to keep track of what is going on, got it from twitter:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =584212288

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 12 Dec 2016 14:21

chetak wrote:ATMs run into legal hurdle

ATMs run into legal hurdle
<SNIP>
The notice says the ACI issued a notice to FSS on August 02, 2016 to cure all breaches of its obligations under the agreement by September 01, 2016, failing which the agreement was to be terminated from November 1, 2016. Instead, FSS communicated on September 01, 2016 that it is not in breach of the agreement. “Since the breaches of the agreement were not cured by FSS, the agreement has been terminated with effect from September 01, 2016,” the notice added.
<SNIP>
Each ATM machine has only 3-4 cassettes that can hold cash in it to dispense. Each cassette has to be configured to dispense a particular value. So far, all ATMs were configured for Rs 100, Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 denomination notes. Official of a company (not FSS) that also manages the ATMs said: “Every ATM has ‘cassettes’ which can hold a particular denomination. To be able to provide Rs 2,000 denomination notes, the cassettes have to be configured, which will take time.” His company is trying to configure one cassette for Rs 50 notes, the software for which is available with it unlike the Rs 2,000 cassettes to be designed and then configures.

What horrible timing to lose the license (rather, not pay on time to renew it).
Postilion has been one of the top 3 products until now, and I don't see how FSS remedied the situation. Will be interesting to see how ACI moves forward in the Indian market.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Dec 2016 14:28

^^ Could it be laying the groundwork for shape of things to come?

500 Rupee notes : Slow printing, old machine
2000 - software not available
Rs 50 notes: Software available now

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 12 Dec 2016 14:32

What we really need now is enough manpower to track the BM hidden in these deposits being made in banks. IT dept cannot be expected to do the entire job. What I am hoping to see is a special task force formed with people with relevant expertise pulled in from police, customs, excise and even paramilitary forces who can go on kicking open fromt doors and raiding multiple locations around the country 24x7 as soon as the demonitisation deadline is over. Modi govt cannot afford to slip up in this act.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 12 Dec 2016 14:45

what are latest figures on a) old currency deposits b) new currency disbursements?

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 12 Dec 2016 14:48

Dilbuji, Modi mentioned on record, that he will put 100K to work for this project if needed. So at least the HR intensive nature of the task has been realized and communicated. Now only if the common person on the street miseries are managed, prosecution of BM launderers could be done over the following months.

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 12 Dec 2016 15:13

Nitesh wrote:This is an open sheet to keep track of what is going on, got it from twitter:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =584212288

Chennai's 100Cr haul is mentioned as 10Cr in the value column, a type. So total haul comes out to be 160Cr, which should be 250Cr if this error is corrected.

I can't comment or edit the sheet.

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 12 Dec 2016 15:19

JayS, I guess you need to login using your google account and then request for editing access

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Dec 2016 16:11

R.K. Laxman cartoon from 1978: (what did they demonetize then?)

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Dec 2016 16:18

News item: Central Govt uses a C-17 and an IL-76 to transport 900 RAF personnel to Chennai to police JL funeral.
"These planes were being used to ferry currency from the central mint to places all over India"

Other items on news just now:

20,000 tons of currency paper to be imported. From Switzerland, Poland, Germany, Russia.
500 CDs from banks being examined for bank hanky-panky.
ATMs out of cash.
News report:
SBI says will give Rs 24K with cheque witthdrawal, but in fact gives only Rs. 6K.. Ask before you write cheque.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 12 Dec 2016 17:09

Dilbu wrote:What we really need now is enough manpower to track the BM hidden in these deposits being made in banks. IT dept cannot be expected to do the entire job. What I am hoping to see is a special task force formed with people with relevant expertise pulled in from police, customs, excise and even paramilitary forces who can go on kicking open fromt doors and raiding multiple locations around the country 24x7 as soon as the demonitisation deadline is over. Modi govt cannot afford to slip up in this act.

Let us assume that Mulayam Singh had 500 crores in hard cash. Post 8 November, he called in a meeting of sarpanch from his fiefdom. He gave 5 crores each to 100 sarpanchs to take care of & settle. Each sarpanch in turn assembled 200 of his village men and gave them 2.5 lakh each from 'netaji' to be taken care of. Most of these youths are Muslim or Yadav i.e. core constituency. Will any of them rat on the biggest gunda in UP state? Will Police protect any whistleblower? This model is scalable to 2000-5000 crores even and not many have that kind of BM in hard cash.

All these people wanting FBI style raids on Indians are not realistic. IT officers, Custom & Excise guys are some of the most corrupt people on the planet and you want a team of these crooks to be empowered to kick front doors across India?

Not that these guys won't go after BM, they will. But the will ensure their own cut and they will never touch the big shots or people from the minority community.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 12 Dec 2016 17:29

Wonder if I can start Ulan Bator Luxury Motors, with direct advertising to noveau-rich aphsars. But in all fairness, more crooks seem to have been caught in the last 2 weeks than in the past 5 years. At least per the news reporting.

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 12 Dec 2016 17:38

In other news, Venezuela seems to have taken a leap of faith following India into Demonetizing its highest value note to combat the Mafia.

Code: Select all

The Venezuelan government has announced it will remove the country's highest-denomination banknote from circulation within 72 hours to combat contraband.

For reference 100 Bolivar==10.05 USD

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 12 Dec 2016 17:44

1. All we need is the government to put its head down and implement the scheme thoroughly. Ease people's difficulties
2. Go after the baddies (bank employees, big BM guys, hawala operators) to win back public support. Nothing will turn mood more sour than if people feel the guilty went scot-free despite the support people gave the project
3. Regularize tax laws to simplify things so that it becomes easier to comply
4. And, let's wait for a few more economies to follow through

Game-Set-Match: We may even see MSM lauding Modi's move. Just a jingo wet-dream

srin · Post by **srin** » 12 Dec 2016 18:32

Thinking of the next steps ...

First, an asset disclosure scheme. All land, gold, cash etc owned solely or jointly.
Second, ban on cash ownership more than 'x' lakhs.
Last, significant increase in IT exemption limits and removal of all exemptions. No more use of Sodexo as cash equivalent.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 12 Dec 2016 18:38

Looks like axis bank license under review. Some regional paper cutout being circulated.

durairaaj · Post by **durairaaj** » 12 Dec 2016 19:17

Somewhere in the middle of this thread, somebody commented that of theprivate banks only ICICI ATM has money while AXIS always ran dry. another mentioned it could be the clout of the bank with RBI. It looks like now we know the reason.

Secondly, no one from ICICI is caught so far. Something fishy.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 12 Dec 2016 19:37

Ibnlive

New Delhi: After the Income Tax Department and the Enforcement Directorate, the government has unleashed the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) to crack down on accounts that have seen large deposits post the demonetisation announcement of November 8.
News18 learns that the agency has already formed a task force under Gujarat-cadre IPS officer Arun Sharma to lead the effort a few days ago. Sharma’s team will also take up complaints received from the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT).

Sharma, a joint director level officer, is currently the head of CBI’s Banking Securities & Finance Cell. He declined to comment for this story.
The crackdown against money laundering has already has seen some high-value seizures, especially in Chennai and Bengaluru.
There have been reports that despite the sudden ban on high-value bank notes, money laundering networks are thriving in the country, which clandestinely help those stuck with piles of old currency to convert them to legal tender.
Probe agencies suspect that a major source of this laundering was the Jan Dhan accounts, which have suddenly shown big deposits coming in in what used to be zero-balance accounts essentially opened to bring in more and more people to the formal banking sector.

Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself warned that those using the Jan Dhan accounts to launder their money will not be spared.
Bloomberg had reported that agents offering to launder money were using creative means, including flying banned cash by the planeload to northeastern states exempt from restrictions as well as connecting people to high-turnover businesses that can deem old cash as revenue, keep a portion of it, and return the rest. Premiums range from 10% to 50%, depending on the difficulty, the report said, adding that at least one property brokerage was offering to arrange the sale of apartments using banned money in an upscale suburb of Mumbai that’s popular with Bollywood movie stars.
With the CBI, which has sweeping powers and cutting-edge investigative expertise, getting into the act, sources said a new wave of raids and arrests from across the country could be expected.
Apart from the illegal conversion of old notes, there have been seizures of unaccounted wealth kept as gold bullions too from parts of the country besides stacks of cash running into crores in new denomination Rs 2000-note discovered from apartments, even cars.
The government is already investigating at least 50 bank branches on suspicion of money laundering.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 12 Dec 2016 19:41

For intimidation factor they should avoid local cops but go in with nsg srg team with black balaclava masks and mp3 and manhandle some of these worthies by scruff of neck into waiting vans in full tv glare

Time the spread some fear among the thug elites

Thats how the russian swat go after their high value targets

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 12 Dec 2016 19:48

kvraghav wrote:Looks like axis bank license under review. Some regional paper cutout being circulated.

wasn't the earlier avatar of this "bank" UTI bank??

Shady as ever.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Dec 2016 19:50

Singha wrote:For intimidation factor they should avoid local cops but go in with nsg srg team with black balaclava masks and mp3 and manhandle some of these worthies by scruff of neck into waiting vans in full tv glare

This can work only in Amreeka. In India every half-assed thug will buy his goons black suits and balaclava and use them to intimidate someone in copycat action. In Bengaluru club - I have seen Lamborghini parked with 4 black suited "private" security men who watch carefully as I peer into the car and under the car's 6" road clearance.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 12 Dec 2016 19:51

100k itvity honest young lads and lasses stand ready to data mine and serve the nation in orr itself. We have no lack of trained manpower for this...deploy our vast kpo sector...these young ppl would love to catch the korrupt fat elites stealing the future of their kids

No mercy no amnesty. Inflict pain

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Dec 2016 19:56

Ok got some useful info. I had mentioned that about 5-6 years ago I had been informed that a POS machine would be given onny for businesses with a turnover of over 2 lakh per month. Also on BRF maybe on this page or the previous one a BRFite has said how one of his POS machine was deactivated for "low usage" just after demonetization.

But today I visited a shop from where we buy readymade fried Karnataka speciality snacks (ACE Iyengar) and he has just got a POS machine. Rental Rs 9000 per year. That is 750 per month eminently eminently affordable and perfectly reasonable.Apparently there are cheaper ones for rent at Rs 5000 per year - but he did not trust the people who offered those

Subdas · Post by **Subdas** » 12 Dec 2016 20:04

Govt should just give 10% cash back on all digital transaction. This will drive up the adoption of cards etc

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 12 Dec 2016 20:05

Today I asked an Amul milk retailer why he doesn't accept cards or PayTm etc. He said their margins are so thin (1 rupee per liter) that they cannot afford the 1 or 2 percent transaction fees. Can any learned gurus shed light on what the margins for milk retailers is?

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 12 Dec 2016 20:19

^Ask him to use UPI, which is free. Or better still, help him set it up.

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 12 Dec 2016 20:21

Shaktimaan wrote:Today I asked an Amul milk retailer why he doesn't accept cards or PayTm etc. He said their margins are so thin (1 rupee per liter) that they cannot afford the 1 or 2 percent transaction fees. Can any learned gurus shed light on what the margins for milk retailers is?

That's Correct. milk prices are controlled by Govt and retailers have perhaps 1-1.5rs margin on it. Retailers wouldn't accept Sodexo coupons as well if you buy only milk as the 5% fees on it eats up all the margin

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 12 Dec 2016 20:26

http://www.afaqs.com/news/story/39750_M ... o-join-AAP

My CT it is possible that Axis bank is laundering money for AAP. I do not have any proof other than pointing to multiple instances of axis bank branches in Delhi getting pulled up. Maybe it is just a coincidence.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 12 Dec 2016 20:29

Paul wrote:http://www.afaqs.com/news/story/39750_M ... o-join-AAP

My CT it is possible that Axis bank is laundering money for AAP.

The lady from HSBC also did the same.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 12 Dec 2016 20:29

https://www.valueresearchonline.com/sto ... n=fundline

Very very good article by Dhirendra Kumar of Value Research. As usual brings exceptional clarity of thought.

Addresses some of the bogeys raised by the soft trolls on this thread.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 12 Dec 2016 20:36

ICICI CEO kamat was handpicked by Modi to become first BRICS bank head. Maybe they have the pull to pull strings...

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 12 Dec 2016 20:39

Was travelling this weekend. Had some experience outside BLR. In 4 hotels I visited on highway, two accepted cards (one guy was even swiping card for 20rs - one coffee). Other two took only cash but I could spend 2000 note without hassle for Rs 200 odd bill.

In Pune, still many shops don't accept cards.

I felt for the counter which handle high volume, we need something as quick as cash "if" we want to replace it with e-cash. Maybe mobile payment with NFC to avoid authentication..?? Or quick card pay without PIN/receipt procedure. We could have a card/wallet with limited transaction value (user defined ideally) so even if its lost it won't cause much harm.

I am told while transferring cash received via PayTM to own account, they charge some 4% (currently its waived off till Dec 31. I suppose). I haven't tried myself, but if this is correct then its killer for small retailers. We need to have all low value transactions, say <1000 need to have nominal charges only, say 0.1% or totally free.

Regarding PVT bank ATMs, in my area, I have not seen a single pvt bank ATM functioning after 24th Nov or so. Only PSB ATMs working.

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 12 Dec 2016 20:46

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 930134.cms

“Mr Gandhi said that any reduction in charge has to be done keeping in mind the cost considerations for banks. The government is keen to significantly lower charges for transactions below Rs 1,000 and Rs 2,000 where charges vary from 75 to 100 basis points,” a person familiar with discussions told ET.

Experts in payments business say that lowering debit card MDR aggressively may hold back banks from rolling out point of sale (PoS) terminals – electronic devices which are used by retailers to process card payments; also, a nominal or zero charge on debit cards could make many merchants reluctant to accept credit cards where the MDR is around an average of 170 basis points.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 12 Dec 2016 20:50

Chandragupta wrote:
Dilbu wrote:What we really need now is enough manpower to track the BM hidden in these deposits being made in banks. IT dept cannot be expected to do the entire job. What I am hoping to see is a special task force formed with people with relevant expertise pulled in from police, customs, excise and even paramilitary forces who can go on kicking open fromt doors and raiding multiple locations around the country 24x7 as soon as the demonitisation deadline is over. Modi govt cannot afford to slip up in this act.
Let us assume that Mulayam Singh had 500 crores in hard cash. Post 8 November, he called in a meeting of sarpanch from his fiefdom. He gave 5 crores each to 100 sarpanchs to take care of & settle. Each sarpanch in turn assembled 200 of his village men and gave them 2.5 lakh each from 'netaji' to be taken care of. Most of these youths are Muslim or Yadav i.e. core constituency. Will any of them rat on the biggest gunda in UP state? Will Police protect any whistleblower? This model is scalable to 2000-5000 crores even and not many have that kind of BM in hard cash.

All these people wanting FBI style raids on Indians are not realistic. IT officers, Custom & Excise guys are some of the most corrupt people on the planet and you want a team of these crooks to be empowered to kick front doors across India?

Not that these guys won't go after BM, they will. But the will ensure their own cut and they will never touch the big shots or people from the minority community.

So tell us why Mulayam was begging Modi to defer this move until after UP elections, then. If he's already sitting pretty, why'd he open his mouth ? And once each Muslim youth deposits Rs.2.5L in the bank, what makes you think they'll get it back ? Even if they withdraw the max cash every day, they still won't get it all out in 50 days. That's how the whole withdrawal limits are set up mathematically. GoI doesn't need IT affsars to do this. They an just freeze all accounts, just as they turned all cash into paper, right from the top.

Dileep · Post by **Dileep** » 12 Dec 2016 20:50

chetak wrote:ATMs run into legal hurdle

That is one side of the story. There is a long running feud between the two companies. See this

The fact of the matter is, most of the ATMs are indeed calibrated for 2K and 500 now, so the Nov 12 article seems to be an attempt to exploit the situation by ACI.