Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

MohdKav · Post by **MohdKav** » 21 Dec 2016 19:01

Sachin wrote: Can you also let us know how fake KYCs can be arranged for these accounts as well? Without KYC, these accounts cannot be operated. In the case of co.op banks, even district, urban and state co.op banks can only try getting new currency based on the amount of which are there in accounts having valid KYC.

You might have to render the services of Axis Bank, Chandni Chowk. I understand your wife is in the banking sector. She can very easily tell you.

Yes, we may be a nation/society of crooks, but I would like to wait for the official RBI figures to come out. I don't think any one in BR (how ever one sided) has said that this operation would be a 100% success. The only thing I can see is that banks have received huge deposits, which was kind of unprecedented. And there is also a well timed propoganda to some how prove that any money deposited in a bank automatically becomes "white money". That how ever may not be true, in a practical scenario.

Question is how they have deposited it. Again, the ways of turning money white using the bank route, or they will 'home deliver" it. No money becomes white just being inside a bank.

And those are paltry when compared to Rs.1080 crores which is lying in a locked condition in co.operative banks in Kerala alone. With even the state's finance minister threatening to scuttle the GST roll out. To be frank, it is the panic, contempt and derision of the whole movement by Kerala politicians, which makes me get a feeling that the operation has been at least 75% successful. So that makes me still take an approach of "wait & watch".

75% ,where did you get that number.
I expect there is more than 30% (not 22% - 2008 ) black economy in India.
I dont care about politicians or cooperative bank.
If the government has decided to nuke the economy, they better get atleast 90% of the black money hoarders. Which they havent.
I can see people converting black money all around me, through multiple methods. It has become so easy, that they have reduced rates for conversion also. Lets take 2008, 22% , Do you see corresponding, arrests, burning of cash ? RBI's last figures was 85% cash already in. Now they have stopped giving out press releases.
The jokes on you sachin and me. For the rest of the crowd- its business as usual albeit with a small knock

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 21 Dec 2016 19:10

habal wrote:Also private banks have now no incentive to load cash into ATM ever since ATM withdrawal charges have been scrapped by RBI order.

ATMs were/are a profit centre for pvt banks. ATMs were not opened for public good by these pvt banks.

Opening an additional SBI saving account, already have one for life time savings.
All salary deposits will be routed to the new saving account in SBI.
Bye bye private banks.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 21 Dec 2016 19:23

question to all the experts ... what metrics ( both short term say within 1 week of end of Demo, medium term say greater than 1 week and less than 6 months and long term ie more than 6 months will indicate success of Demo ?

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 21 Dec 2016 19:36

SaraLax wrote:
Whiners, Criers will anyway diss upon Modi (particularly lots of RoL's and RoP's) even is he sneezes.

Modi or his party BJP - are not going to gain in any manner by opting for Demonetization .. but it is their principle that a BM infested economy will marginalize the less financially stronger sections of the economy from purchasing wealth associated assets (whether movable or immovable) and hence the need to roll out demonetization .. which in reality is hitting many of the corrupt entities with in BJP too (as though BJP is a party consisting full of honest Indians), is hitting the core vote bank of BJP too and is inducing fear among the BM Holers across whole of India too.

No PM other than Modi has had the boldness to take up this very risky process of demonetization because he has seen how the poor and less-financially strong people are getting crowded out of the path to move up in prosperity and in acquiring wealth by the large amounts of untaxed BM sloshing around in the economy - that is inflating the prices of certain assets beyond the grasp of common man..

If at all any of you whiners & criers ... cry & whine again .. do it on the basis as to why we & our previous generations allowed this BM transactions based economy to happen in the first place...

I remember computerization of railways by Rajiv Gandhi and Madhav Rao Sindhia was also opposed by Lalu types.

Later result Rajiv and Sindhia both killed.

This move has completely obliterated the the pakistani printed notes, maoists stockpile of notes printed by termite queen to help them move and kill crpf men with more flexibility.

NaMo was right when he said "...they can kill me...", mark my words the ford foundation and their backers won't forgive him for taking away their power to finance christian terror groups like NSCN and Maoists, to raise kejri-sisodia types out of thin air.

He is highest on the list of foreign powers' crosshairs.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 21 Dec 2016 19:36

SaraLax wrote: No PM other than Modi has had the boldness to take up this very risky process of demonetization

That is factually incorrect. The first demonetization happened in 1978.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 21 Dec 2016 19:39

asgkhan wrote:Dad has gone thrice to the HO to withdraw cash from his SB A/C. He has been sent back that they have not received money from RBI.

He has gone again today, but the manager has refused to give more than 5k today.

Construction is due to start next month, contractor needs cash, plan approval needs cash. Now what do we do ?

ATMs are all closed. Seriously the sheer amount of incompetency is mind-boggling !!

Now the posters short on common sense, not living in desh, will start

1. Posting feel good links/tweets rah-rahing demonitisation
2. Suggest IMPS/PayTM/Other half baked measures
3. Give uvachas and speeches on how this 1/2 baked measures which has moved from black money to cash less/less cash objective will improve the overall quality of life.
4. One of the diggajs will start posting numbers running into crores and trillions to prove me wrong.

On the ground, the magnitude of stupidity is growing, made worse by that fcukface aruj jaitley smug facedly giving interviews and his ministry sabotaging the demonitisation drive. Instead of coming up with cohesive measures and shoving the boot up RBI's musharraf, he is busy giving interviews and clarifications on the daily goof-ups.

Modi-mian is busy giving speeches to the dhoti-clad, bhooka nanga gareeb shittizens, who are waiting for the mirage for their upliftment.

While I completely support demonitisation, I am not happy with the implementation. The road to hell is paved with good intentions. While the intention is laudable, the execution has been laughable !!

Your post is full of angst, posted in haste....

1. Plan approval needs cash: Which govt. department requires that? Is there a govt. department, central or state, that refuses a demand draft or a cheque? Or, are you talking about bribe? That's unfortunate, but it's not central govt.s problem. Submit your construction plan and file a RTI.

2. Contractor needs cash: Change your contractor. Are you suggesting that there is not a single contractor in your city that works with cheques or NEFT transfers?

>>

Please don't take this is a aspersion on your good self, but the matter of importance at present is that we have to be part of this clean up exercise. You and your father have hard earned wealth, taxed paid. You have the buyers advantage. Deny business to those that refuse to mend their ways.

See to it that they mend and bend.

Statement about ATM's is a half truth. The PSU bank ATM's are dispensing currency notes, although not of your choice of denomination always.

One eye opener for me has been the conduct of the private banks. I have SMS from the bank that holds my salary account (starts with H) inviting out of the queue exchange of old notes. Axis bank case is already public. However their ATMs are dry. I am guessing you are educated enough to connect the dots.

It is not the implementation that is at fault. You have to see the loopholes being invented every other day to launder black money by whatever means, that requires patching and which in turn cause govt. to change goalposts every week. It is not the current govt. fault that we have byzantine taxation and banking laws that can be exploited.

A secondary objective of less cash society is a lofty goal. Its important people are brought inside the banking system ASAP. The bhooka - nanagas that you are describing are the ones that lose money to chit funds, money lenders and sundry ponzi schemes. Increased access to banks will lead to elimination of such shady outfits and natural consequence would be increase in electronic commerce.

You have to understand that increased electronic transactions would mean that your "cash demanding contractor" would be out with a begging bowl if he doesn't mend his ways.

There are lot of things to be angry about, but that's after March 2017, if this demonetisation exercise is not followed up with tax reforms for example.

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 21 Dec 2016 19:44

by Dipankar
SaraLax wrote:
No PM other than Modi has had the boldness to take up this very risky process of demonetization

That is factually incorrect. The first demonetization happened in 1978.

When Morarji Desai stopped Rs 10,000, Rs 5000, Rs 1000 notes back in 1978 only 5% of the indian currency was in these notes (hoarded by lutyens elite).

Before November 8th , 2016 86% of the indian currency was in Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes.

5% vs 86% ? Which has more effect?

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 21 Dec 2016 19:47

Dipanker the 1978 demo was a mickey mouse excercise. ask ur parents how many folks at that time had 500 or 1000 rupee notes.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 21 Dec 2016 20:01

the cpiml troll is very active I see....

Anyway, went to ATM today, 25 min, to withdraw 2.5k in crisp 500 notes. First time I'm seeing 'em notes now. These notes are the same size as the 10 rupee notes are.

Economy needs massive injection of these notes and 100 notes all over, IMHO.

habal · Post by **habal** » 21 Dec 2016 20:17

SRoy wrote:
habal wrote:Also private banks have now no incentive to load cash into ATM ever since ATM withdrawal charges have been scrapped by RBI order.

ATMs were/are a profit centre for pvt banks. ATMs were not opened for public good by these pvt banks.
Opening an additional SBI saving account, already have one for life time savings.
All salary deposits will be routed to the new saving account in SBI.
Bye bye private banks.

hello,

confirm whether the SBI branch you open your a/c in is also a currency chest branch. This is, this branch also stocks cash for distribution to other branches. If yes, then you are in luck. If not, even opening a/c in SBI will not do you any good cash wise.

secondly, there are plenty of PSU banks in which 'makhee bhee par nahin maarti' that is, staff sit exchanging stories all day. Lekin, it is not popular amongst usual customers because of lack of glamour factor. Let's say how about opening a/c in Allahabad bank in Bangalore. Or Punjab & Sind bank in Chennai. Or Andhra Bank in Guwahati. These banks have very few a/c holders, but cash they get from RBI is same as any other bank.

Just go in and barge into managers cabin, meet & greet the managers. Enquire about his kids, compliment him for his perseverance and hard work during these 'testing times', ask him how he remains so calm during such crises etc. You will have plenty of cash.

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 21 Dec 2016 20:22

Sachin wrote: Can you also let us know how fake KYCs can be arranged for these accounts as well? Without KYC, these accounts cannot be operated. In the case of co.op banks, even district, urban and state co.op banks can only try getting new currency based on the amount of which are there in accounts having valid KYC.

Saar it's too easy. I can get you a real DL in any name with any photo. Same with passport. Then opening a bank account is too easy.

I have already written to PMO about plugging these holes. But right now there must be tens of thousands of ghost bank accounts, If not more.

habal · Post by **habal** » 21 Dec 2016 20:28

People are simply wrong when they say something like this

"My ATM has plenty of cash"
"All ATMs in my area have 2000 notes"

and then make a decalaration on behalf of everybody that "there is no problem with ATMs" and all those who say that there are problems with "ATMs" are bluffing people and anti-Modi, anti-reform, anti-India.

In reality what is going on is that all states have RBI or SBI state HQ and currency availability is proportional to distance from state RBI/SBI HQ.

For example in Punjab, maximum availability will be in Chandigarh but availability will progressively reduce as distance from chandigarh increases with minimum (to the extent in a state) availability in Muktsar, Firozepur & Gurdaspur. SO if you ask someone from Chandigarh on availability of new notes. He/She will immidiately say hey no problem here, 2000 ke note are plenty.

Same in Karnataka. In Bangalore, it is a huge demand there so there is still relative shortage. But ask someone in Bidar, Belgaum, Gulbarga on how they are situated currency wise, then you will get a picture of what is happening in the state.

In Kerala, maximum availability of currency notes in Trivandrum, but in Waynad, Kasargod, Kannur etc, the banks are in sorry state and do not even have bare minimum of 2000 ke note.

SO if anyone says "hey, my ATM has plenty of cash", kindly also specify if the location of ATM is in state capital or in farthest away from capital.

Availability of new currency notes is on the X+1-9 factor where X is location of RBI HQ/State capital. And +1 is district nearest to X and then +9 is farthest. So these X+9 type towns are still in deep doodoo currently.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 21 Dec 2016 20:28

habal wrote:
SRoy wrote:
Opening an additional SBI saving account, already have one for life time savings.
All salary deposits will be routed to the new saving account in SBI.
Bye bye private banks.
hello,

confirm whether the SBI branch you open your a/c in is also a currency chest branch. This is, this branch also stocks cash for distribution to other branches. If yes, then you are in luck. If not, even opening a/c in SBI will not do you any good cash wise.

secondly, there are plenty of PSU banks in which 'makhee bhee par nahin maarti' that is, staff sit exchanging stories all day. Lekin, it is not popular amongst usual customers because of lack of glamour factor. Let's say how about opening a/c in Allahabad bank in Bangalore. Or Punjab & Sind bank in Chennai. Or Andhra Bank in Guwahati. These banks have very few a/c holders, but cash they get from RBI is same as any other bank.

Just go in and barge into managers cabin, meet & greet the managers. Enquire about his kids, compliment him for his perseverance and hard work during these 'testing times', ask him how he remains so calm during such crises etc. You will have plenty of cash.

Very big branch saar. Housed in a big GoI building (ah ... its a CGO complex). Serves central govt. employees and pensioners, in an upscale area, so no worries. Yes, its a currency chest branch.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 21 Dec 2016 20:39

Sicanta wrote:

RBI exempts all KYC accounts from Rs 5000 deposit norms

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 387_1.html

This is once again consistent with the intent to catch BM hoarders and leave law abiding citizens. I bet banks will hardly see any deposits of > Rs 5000 in the fully vetted KYC accounts as they have already deposited or any deposits will be fully documented for further scrutiny. But the BM hoarder (mostly political party leaders that feed hundreds of karyakartas) who is trying to leak little by little bit of his/her black money through his/her goons are still shut down. This will have no material difference to the previous rule.

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 21 Dec 2016 20:41

Rishi Verma wrote:
Sachin wrote: Can you also let us know how fake KYCs can be arranged for these accounts as well? Without KYC, these accounts cannot be operated. In the case of co.op banks, even district, urban and state co.op banks can only try getting new currency based on the amount of which are there in accounts having valid KYC.
Saar it's too easy. I can get you a real DL in any name with any photo. Same with passport. Then opening a bank account is too easy.

I have already written to PMO about plugging these holes. But right now there must be tens of thousands of ghost bank accounts, If not more.

Are you serious Rishi? A fake passport is not as easy or common as you make it out to be. IB has entire teams dedicated for this. Licenses may be possible but even those are not common. I mean all the banks will also ask for PAN, right? Forging one document alone is difficult, you're talking of an identity itself. And tens of thousands.... uff. Even fake Aadhaars are being weeded out one ny one. Will take a decade but after that, it will be impossible for fakers. Because every bank will have biometrics and guess who else can track such folks using photos of depositors, withdrawals etc. the paper trail cannot be wished away easily.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 21 Dec 2016 20:56

habal wrote:People are simply wrong when they say something like this

"My ATM has plenty of cash"
"All ATMs in my area have 2000 notes"

and then make a decalaration on behalf of everybody that "there is no problem with ATMs" and all those who say that there are problems with "ATMs" are bluffing people and anti-Modi, anti-reform, anti-India.

In reality what is going on is that all states have RBI or SBI state HQ and currency availability is proportional to distance from state RBI/SBI HQ.

For example in Punjab, maximum availability will be in Chandigarh but availability will progressively reduce as distance from chandigarh increases with minimum (to the extent in a state) availability in Muktsar, Firozepur & Gurdaspur. SO if you ask someone from Chandigarh on availability of new notes. He/She will immidiately say hey no problem here, 2000 ke note are plenty.

Same in Karnataka. In Bangalore, it is a huge demand there so there is still relative shortage. But ask someone in Bidar, Belgaum, Gulbarga on how they are situated currency wise, then you will get a picture of what is happening in the state.

In Kerala, maximum availability of currency notes in Trivandrum, but in Waynad, Kasargod, Kannur etc, the banks are in sorry state and do not even have bare minimum of 2000 ke note.

SO if anyone says "hey, my ATM has plenty of cash", kindly also specify if the location of ATM is in state capital or in farthest away from capital.

Availability of new currency notes is on the X+1-9 factor where X is location of RBI HQ/State capital. And +1 is district nearest to X and then +9 is farthest. So these X+9 type towns are still in deep doodoo currently.

I see a clear trend that things are improving. This was not the case a week ago. I can only give inputs on Vizag city. Now anybody who doesn't mind Rs 2000 notes can get cash readily, although mostly going into the bank. Banks are not focusing on ATMs as they want to take care of their customers first. If this trend continues, in a week nobody would care for Rs 2000 anymore.

Now they all want Rs 500. No bank or ATM has this in Vizag. It is a mystery where the Rs 500s are going? If the supply of Rs 500 follows same trajectory as Rs 2000, by end of Jan most of the cash problems will be gone.

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 21 Dec 2016 21:02

Dipanker wrote:
SaraLax wrote: No PM other than Modi has had the boldness to take up this very risky process of demonetization
That is factually incorrect. The first demonetization happened in 1978.

Factually you are correct, but only partially. The first demonetization happened in 1946. However, only the notes that most Indians had never even seen in real life were demonetized. In 1946 500 rupees (the lowest denomination to be banned) was more than 8 months salary for most people. It was a limited effort with limited results.

In 1978, 1000 rupees was also more than a month's salary for the majority. Moreover, In Morarji's time, Information was available to the big players before it happened and so on. Most importantly, there was not enough political will or national will to see it through.

The event this year is truly unprecedented and no matter how much you dislike Modi or the BJP you have to agree that he has shown far greater courage than any other Indian leader before him.

THere is a lot of info available, but just this one may suffice:

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 21 Dec 2016 21:08

Strangely I see lot of similarities between cash and crude oil, if I use oil prices and the scarcity of cash on similar scale. A small inbalance between demand and supply can shoot oil prices up disproportionately. Similar thing is happening in cash shortages. A week ago the situation looked very bleak with no end in sight. There was no huge infusion of cash to the city( as you know Vizag is politically a deprived city) and it was coming at steady state for the last 4 weeks. But how one week made such a difference makes me use the crude crude oil analogy. Hope there is some theory behind it.

disha · Post by **disha** » 21 Dec 2016 22:01

MohdKav wrote:Nobody is burning money, nobody is getting caught, other than some token people all around India.

What mind wants to believe., the eyes hear that and the ears see that.

1. Chief Secy. of TN got caught with 170 Kg of Gold and @150 cr. of cash. That is not token. I have in my lifetime have not seen how much a kilogram of gold looks like. Neither I have seen anything larger than 50 Kg. of rice bag. So I do not know how much of 170 Kg of Gold looks like but it is not a token amount and neither is Chief Secy. of TN is a "token" person.

2. In one place you mention that there are still pockets out there trying to launder the BM at some rate which is now down to 15%. Have you thought that there is no more BM to launder and hence the rates have come down? And if people have laundered their BM even at 30% rate - they have seen a significant hair cut. On top of it are you claiming that the 70% has been laundered and returned back to the launderer? If so they should be happy to go out and purchase properties at depressed rates. Why are they not doing it?

All you want to do is whine and pull straw mens out of your musharraf. How much BM did you lose?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Dec 2016 22:21

As predicted there is a large constituency of wealthy and influential people who want demonetization to fail But this was known all the time. With 9 days or so left we are seeing some rearguard action and wild claims an wild criticism. The noise of the first 2 weeks is gone. The opposition spent themselves destroying an entire parliament session.

But this is not the end of story. I see remarkable patience and fortitude among people at large - people who don't have all that much money. In addition, there has been some serious income redistribution that is being described as "failure". When a person gets paid for 1 year in advance and he deposits that money in his account, he gains. And a man who gets money in old notes that he cannot exchange is going to blame the person who gave it to him. A lot of people with no money in their accounts are now flush with cash.

I am not going to make any predictions but there remains a possibility that the people will back Modi to the hilt in the next election or whatever type. I am certain this thought is foremost in the minds of the opposition. They have not been able to arrange a single protest - not a single one. In Bengaluru I have seen crowds being brought out for the flimsiest of causes - a few lakhs spent in 500 notes can buy crowds. No a single one. The ONLY massive rally I saw was one of predominantly women who were protesting against the minister of the sex CD. This was a self-generated protest - not a paid political one. By now we should have had riots

I suspect there is deep anxiety among political parties because the so called "suffering common man" is stil solidly behind the move. The lame excuses I am hearing 'No big fish has been caught. Rich are getting away" etc sound really hollow to me because people are seeing others being caught every day. The Cong spokes persons language today was pure rhetoric - the language of "blame". "World is laughing at India" World does not give a fying fuk actually about day to day RBI decisions.

Even on BRF I see people asking "What about people of XYZ? They had so much money. None caught". These are personal perceptions of who must have had money and who should be caught. The numbers of people being caught all over the country speaks for itself.

Paytm server was down today from overload - but that is nothing. I don't even know whether to believe the news that 70% people in rural areas have taken up digital payments.

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 21 Dec 2016 22:36

I have these questions from people in India at this time.
How are the markets

Prices in vegetables/fruit up/down/availability?
Prices of milk/petrol/gas/eggs/bread/daily items up/down availability?
other?

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 21 Dec 2016 22:38

And then there are people who get on with it.

Apparently Amul has created 5.4 million savings accounts for milk men who supplly milk to the company.
https://twitter.com/RenukaJain6/status/ ... 8930841600

The figure looks suspect but even if 10% of the stated figure is true, it shows large organizations and huge numbers of citizens from rural areas are willing to adapt.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Dec 2016 22:43

Petrol prices move with international market rates. No shortage.

Food prices down. Food inflation down. Availability not an issue that I have come across in news or personally

Businesses that have taken a hit have done it stoically and that includes all my doctor colleagues. Auto and taxi drivers not complaining. Veg vendors and general service people not complaining. Everyone patient and hopeful and supportive in my areas. Whatsapp and Facebook groups largely supportive.

ONLY Inglees media and oppn politicians vociferous in condemnation

Subdas · Post by **Subdas** » 21 Dec 2016 22:44

There is no shortage of any material of any kind in Kolkata. There is over supply actually. All these bull shit about trucks stranded on high ways due to lack of cash is just bs. prices of a large number of items have come down specially vegies that amm admi eats. This itself is the biggest reason for am admi to be backing modiji

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Dec 2016 22:49

There's a family who have 16 cows just behind my house . They serve the local people who want fresh milk. No sweat. I asked one of the owners what demonetization did (15 days ago). He said that they take payments once a month and are unaffected. But they has some trouble paying for fodder as those guys (from rural areas) wanted only cash. But nothing ha schanged. It's business as usual. Our own milk supplier (government) gladly gives out change in Rs 100 notes in exchange for 2000 notes to several people every day including my SHQ because it is easier for hi to count and deposit Rs 2000 notes in the bank. He has started taking cheques from us. Local veg seller first said he will take cheque. then he said - forget it- wait for your bill to reach 2000 and give me a note.

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 21 Dec 2016 22:51

TN Chief Sec's and his relatives were raided earlier today in Chennai. Raids started at 5.30 AM -( auspicious time in Margazhi Tamil month

).

People gathered. So did an AAP nutter and also started slogans against Modi asking why BJP ministers werent raided. Gathered poeple started trashing the AAP guy. Bolis came and took nutter to station. End of.

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 21 Dec 2016 23:02

Disha saar on fire! 170kg is not much - Only $6.2 mn.- a village might have that much. A Chief Secy though, might have much more!

Some of these chaps have bought more. When the skeletons tumble out of the UP, Bihar closets, the scale of this demolition will be clearer.

There are some folks grumbling, but they have to deal with daily wagers and are unwilling to pay for the week - wages in BLR for skilled labor were between 1000-1200 and for unskilled, slightly lower at 600-800. We do not know if this market is stalled. Construction is in fact hit the worst, both on funds and labor. I can see the reasons for pain though and also see that some cash-rich communities that are that way because they are tax-averse will not be supporting the BJP, but overall a large number of people will eventually move to the BJP side. I cannot believe a non-freebie election victory being followed by another, but it might just happen if they manage the after-effects better. Lower inflation helps, but punitive action works best (re: the French Revolution for more details

).

In less important news, 500s are flowing across Bangalore in pvt bank ATMs. Foreign banks seem to have been danda-musharraffed because they have finally started dispensing these amounts. Shittybank is the biggest culprit followed NonstandardChor(tered)s. I have no need for change but have a few hundreds and a crisp 500 in the wallet. However, didn't have this money in the afternoon for a tip to some hotel staff. Quite disappointing that none of the folks actually bothered to even check -- shall be going back this weekend to hand those chaps some cash.

vnms · Post by **vnms** » 21 Dec 2016 23:03

MohdKav wrote: 75% ,where did you get that number.
I expect there is more than 30% (not 22% - 2008 ) black economy in India.
I dont care about politicians or cooperative bank.
If the government has decided to nuke the economy, they better get atleast 90% of the black money hoarders. Which they havent.
I can see people converting black money all around me, through multiple methods. It has become so easy, that they have reduced rates for conversion also. Lets take 2008, 22% , Do you see corresponding, arrests, burning of cash ? RBI's last figures was 85% cash already in. Now they have stopped giving out press releases.
The jokes on you sachin and me. For the rest of the crowd- its business as usual albeit with a small knock

Saar, you made an assumption that the economy has been 'nuked'. Now, based on that assumption, you are claiming that atleast 90% of the black money hoarders should be caught. Why 90%? Why not 80% or 50% or 99%?
How did you arrive at the conclusion that the economy has been nuked?

Let's make a few more assumptions here.
If the economy doesn't get affected by the 'economic nuke' radiation and say the growth rate is at around 6%, would you call the DeMo a success even if less than 90% of the BM holders are caught?

If the growth rate is at 7.5%, and only 50% of the BM holders are caught, would you call the DeMo a success?

In other words, can you please tell us the ideal ratio of growth you expect and % of BM that needs to be brought into the mainstream?

BTW: If you have first hand knowledge of the BM holders converting their money without problems, what exactly are you doing? Have to reported the said individuals to the authorities? Do your part to prevent that from happening... unless that is what you want.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 21 Dec 2016 23:16

Marten wrote: Are you serious Rishi? A fake passport is not as easy or common as you make it out to be. IB has entire teams dedicated for this. Licenses may be possible but even those are not common. I mean all the banks will also ask for PAN, right? Forging one document alone is difficult, you're talking of an identity itself. And tens of thousands.... uff. Even fake Aadhaars are being weeded out one ny one. Will take a decade but after that, it will be impossible for fakers. Because every bank will have biometrics and guess who else can track such folks using photos of depositors, withdrawals etc. the paper trail cannot be wished away easily.

Will never be impossible, but yes the cost and effort to procure the id will definitely increase. And guess who will prevent this from becoming impossible. It is the intelligence agencies themselves including IB and RAW. If faking id really becomes impossible, then how will spies themselves operate. So that is why some loophole will be left in order to be exploited at the right times.

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 21 Dec 2016 23:29

Sorry Saar, but the agencies do not need fake passports. The fake passport business operates (for non-agency operators hehe) not on new passports but on revisions made to existing ones. So some villager from a village in Haryana will have a passport made legally and then lose it. His passport, suitably edited, will then travel for the next two or three months. Until it is flagged. All the same, we are talking about TENS of THOUSANDS of fake passports being generated. Given that we already are hosting MILLIONs of Bangladeshis, it is possible.

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 21 Dec 2016 23:31

disha wrote:
MohdKav wrote:Nobody is burning money, nobody is getting caught, other than some token people all around India.
What mind wants to believe., the eyes hear that and the ears see that.

1. Chief Secy. of TN got caught with 170 Kg of Gold and @150 cr. of cash. That is not token. I have in my lifetime have not seen how much a kilogram of gold looks like. Neither I have seen anything larger than 50 Kg. of rice bag. So I do not know how much of 170 Kg of Gold looks like but it is not a token amount and neither is Chief Secy. of TN is a "token" person.

2. In one place you mention that there are still pockets out there trying to launder the BM at some rate which is now down to 15%. Have you thought that there is no more BM to launder and hence the rates have come down? And if people have laundered their BM even at 30% rate - they have seen a significant hair cut. On top of it are you claiming that the 70% has been laundered and returned back to the launderer? If so they should be happy to go out and purchase properties at depressed rates. Why are they not doing it?

All you want to do is whine and pull straw mens out of your musharraf. How much BM did you lose?

150 KG of gold can fit in a shoe box
yes you read right. It is that small.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 21 Dec 2016 23:40

Taking dimensions of gold bars from https://invest.usgoldbureau.com/gold-bar-sizes, 170 kg gold will be:

680cm x 1360cm x 306cm

Not in a shoebox for sure.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 21 Dec 2016 23:50

I'm not reducing the degree of crime, but they only found Rs 18 lakh new currency and 2kg of gold when they raided the properties of chief secretary of TN.

The Rs 170 cr includes all collections related to sand mafia. The biggest loot seized was from Mr Sekhar Reddy. The investigation is still going on.

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 21 Dec 2016 23:51

Marten wrote:
Rishi Verma wrote:
Saar it's too easy. I can get you a real DL in any name with any photo. Same with passport. Then opening a bank account is too easy.

I have already written to PMO about plugging these holes. But right now there must be tens of thousands of ghost bank accounts, If not more.
Are you serious Rishi?

I am very serious, and saying from experience. Aadhar cards too are being given to Bangladeshis with (fake) Indian domicile.

It's OT but with fake ID it's easy to open bank accounts. And one with fake ID can also have multiple fake IDs.

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 21 Dec 2016 23:52

Just 1% Indians pay Income Tax: NITI Aayog's Amitabh Kant

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 905_1.html

Kant said there are more than a billion mobile phone subscribers in India

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 22 Dec 2016 00:00

Upto now 3100 cr undisclosed income has been recovered. This is upto december 19th.

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/tax-offi ... es-1640053

NEW DELHI: In raids across the country post the November 8 ban on 500- and 1,000-rupee notes, the Income Tax department has detected over 3,000 crores in undisclosed income. 86 crores have been seized in new notes.

I-T department carried out a total of 677 search, survey and enquiry operations, and has issued over 3,100 notices to various entities on charges of tax evasion and hawala-like dealings for laundering money, official sources said.

Jewellery and cash in old currency worth over 428 crores were seized in the raids. Most of the 86 crores seized in currency were in 2,000-rupee notes, said sources.

"The total undisclosed income admitted or detected as part of this action, till December 19, is more than Rs. 3,185 crore," sources said.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 22 Dec 2016 00:04

It's good that only 86cr out of Rs.3100 cr is in new notes. That suggests that the rate of leeching of the new notes into black economy is low, and most of the base is still the old useless 500s/1000s that they're simply incapable of depositing and declaring without letting dangerous cats out of bags.

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 22 Dec 2016 00:12

Since the ban of high-value currency notes on November 8, close to Rs 14 lakh crore is back in the banking system, tell sources to CNBC-TV18. According to them, this may also be the reason for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to restrict deposit of old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes, worth more than Rs 5,000 into bank accounts, to only one time till December 30. The announcement was made today and RBI will also issue fresh guidelines later this evening prescribing enhanced checks for deposits over Rs 5000.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/cnbc-t ... ef_article

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 22 Dec 2016 00:15

Suraj wrote:It's good that only 86cr out of Rs.3100 cr is in new notes. That suggests that the rate of leeching of the new notes into black economy is low, and most of the base is still the old useless 500s/1000s that they're simply incapable of depositing and declaring without letting dangerous cats out of bags.

I think this represents less than 1%. Still your point is valid. Even by liberal estimates the money exchanged for BM cannot be more than Rs 50000 crores, which is not bad. If they can stop any more conversion in the next 2 weeks, demonetization is a big success. They still have the task of scrutinizing all the deposits. They will easily find another Rs 50000 crores. But most important byproduct is the promotion of cashless transactions which is key to stop BM accumulating again.

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 22 Dec 2016 00:18

This was about a week ago. I am not sure how credible this report is.

This dropped to 20-30% in the following weeks and settled at 10% a week back. Interestingly, in the last few days the situation has reversed. Now if you have Rs 1crore in cash, there are people willing to take the money off your hands and give you an interest of 6-8% after a year.

“The only hitch is that you have to lock in your money for a year or so; a few days back an interest of 6% was being offered, it has gone up to 8%,” said one of the individuals involved in such a trade.

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst