Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Dec 2016 17:17

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/jAvkDp ... o-pay.html
News in Numbers | Income tax evaders, if raided, said to pay 137% penalty

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 201101.cms
Mamata Banerjee, Rahul Gandhi dare PM Modi to resign for 'failure of note ban'

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 27 Dec 2016 17:30

^^ Pappu said...

Rahul Gandhi told NDTV after the presser, "The prime minister is extremely disturbed by these attacks and remarks that I have made. He is personally disturbed and upset and you can see it on his face. The fact is these diaries and tapes are true and correct."

He should have said "the fact is these diaries are true, correct, authentic, real, accurate, credible...

This moron is a national disgrace....of Italy

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Dec 2016 17:55

I don't understand .... per didi pappu baba is the best resource/foil/agent (forgotten the exact word) of ebil Modi ... why then is she out to help pappu? Isn't that a direct help to Modi? ..... doesn't that make her too an agent of Modi.

Modi is very ebil I tell ju. How he makes all his opponents do jalebi asana.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 27 Dec 2016 18:55

^which city, saar? dunno when bhagyanagaram will get such bhaagyam only.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 27 Dec 2016 19:05

Hari Seldon wrote:^which city, saar? dunno when bhagyanagaram will get such bhaagyam only.

This is weird that some parts it is completely normal and in other big cities, citizens are facing hardships even after so many days. I suspect, further away is a location from RBI offices, poorer is the situation.

Gujarat being closer to Mumbai RBI + Nashik, things are better. I am happy to be corrected.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 27 Dec 2016 19:55

Onions are red and smelly - so they are still highly priced as Commie-raids. Green tomatos are high-priced (no comment), but saffron tomatos are being dumped. Red tomatos are just rotten red-faced saffrons. Feeling rotten due to failure of note ban, as they should. Cabbages are being left on the roadside because they are smarter than the Leader of the Congress Party and so they feel like giving speeches on street corners.

durairaaj · Post by **durairaaj** » 27 Dec 2016 20:01

I think demonetisation has become a lost opportunity and is fast becoming a self inflicted tragedy.
Instead of pushing digital transaction UPI pay and decreasing the transaction cost they are bringing in some aadhar pay, encouraging PayTM and printing more and more paper notes and probable importing of paper from 8 different companies for newer noes. I dont f*****g understand how can one link multiple bank accounts to Aadhar pay. Instead of building on existing platform why bring new payment method.
Whatever the confidence I had innitially is totally lost over the last few days seeing the rudderless government policies.

A chief secretary (an IAS) is openly challenging the incumbent central government with out immediate retribution. I dont understand what happened to PM. Instead of proclaiming in the roads and empty assembly grounds PM should have faced the parliament. As of now, he is shooting from the shoulders of JetLee. This is not good in the long term.

ritesh · Post by **ritesh** » 27 Dec 2016 20:09

OT alert....
My office colleague just returned from his native place, varanasi. Says cash issue under control there. There is an under current for bha ja pa and who should form govt on its own. He was there for good one week and his family is in cadre of the party. Overall despite what sickular lots claims, things are only looking up. Jai shri ram!

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 27 Dec 2016 20:40

durairaaj wrote:A chief secretary (an IAS) is openly challenging the incumbent central government with out immediate retribution. I dont understand what happened to PM.

The Chief Secretary of TN who got kicked out is ultimately a sarkaari babu. Why should even the PM respond to him? The Chief.Sec talks about going to the "people's court". What court is he talking about? Is he going to contest elections? His raves and rants should be directed against the officials who conducted the raid. If he has any proof that they botched up things let him take that at the appropriate forum/court.

vnms · Post by **vnms** » 27 Dec 2016 20:41

durairaaj wrote:I think demonetisation has become a lost opportunity and is fast becoming a self inflicted tragedy.
Instead of pushing digital transaction UPI pay and decreasing the transaction cost they are bringing in some aadhar pay, encouraging PayTM and printing more and more paper notes and probable importing of paper from 8 different companies for newer noes. I dont f*****g understand how can one link multiple bank accounts to Aadhar pay. Instead of building on existing platform why bring new payment method.
Whatever the confidence I had innitially is totally lost over the last few days seeing the rudderless government policies.

A chief secretary (an IAS) is openly challenging the incumbent central government with out immediate retribution. I dont understand what happened to PM. Instead of proclaiming in the roads and empty assembly grounds PM should have faced the parliament. As of now, he is shooting from the shoulders of JetLee. This is not good in the long term.

Saar, please do read up a little. There are numerous YouTube videos of Modi in parliament.

We are still a democracy. Swift retribution will not happen. Do not expect everything to happen at the pace you expect it to happen at.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 27 Dec 2016 20:55

The Chief Secretary is Ex Chief Secretary and 2B long-term guest of jail, hain? Aadhar pay is intended to remove the stranglehold of cellphone companies and card / swipe companies. It's an evolutionary step, not a reactionary one. Basically brings in a complete cashless solution, and ideal credit situation but backed by account balance: one pays with one's biometric "signature". Like a prestigious Club member. Reminds me of when we went to Stanford Club for a wedding reception, but got in early. Tried to buy a tea at the cafeteria, but were told that they could not accept payment, only members were supposed to buy there, and that was strictly as

Charge it to my account!

Now every Indian citjen can go anywhere in India and just give aadhar number and maybe a code.

Vineetmehta_del · Post by **Vineetmehta_del** » 27 Dec 2016 21:02

Gov is currently utilising services of specialised firms to identify companies and individuals cleaning their monies. This is happening at highest levels. The IT guys are utilising these inputs for raids. Seems there is a clear strategy on what needs to be done and how. Also, I feel that this fight against such entities would continue for 1-2 years.

Subdas · Post by **Subdas** » 27 Dec 2016 21:07

Rishi Verma wrote:^^ Pappu said...

Rahul Gandhi told NDTV after the presser, "The prime minister is extremely disturbed by these attacks and remarks that I have made. He is personally disturbed and upset and you can see it on his face. The fact is these diaries and tapes are true and correct."
He should have said "the fact is these diaries are true, correct, authentic, real, accurate, credible...

This moron is a national disgrace....of Italy

So from now on no need for evidence. All we need to convict some body is lay charges and observer the face and if the face turns red then convict the person and indian judiciary will be the fastest on earth!

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 27 Dec 2016 21:08

Kiran Bedi ‏@thekiranbedi 1m1 minute ago

All cleaning naturally throws up hoarded dirt which houses all kindsof insects,even poisonous biting reptiles.Which is why cleaning is tough

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 27 Dec 2016 21:32

durairaaj wrote: Instead of proclaiming in the roads and empty assembly grounds PM should have faced the parliament.

Please check the channels that you watch regularly on TV and confirm that you have watched Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha proceedings in detail in the last parliament session.

What is bad for the nation is ignorance of the educated, which is what allows the worst forms of corruption to be allowed as normal routine

No problem if you have not watched, but it means that you have no clue about what actually happened in parliament. In which case the comment you made about what "should have happened in parliament" are ignorant rubbish

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 27 Dec 2016 21:35

Mayawati claims that 103 crores are "voluntary contributions" to BSP

Fine. It's in the bank now. They can use UPI to pay voters

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Dec 2016 21:44

^
Exactly my thought. Doesn't have to be BM now that it is locked inside the account. They can withdraw 24K per week(??) or use cheque to pay who so ever needs to be paid, voters or organizers.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 27 Dec 2016 21:51

pankajs wrote:^
Exactly my thought. Doesn't have to be BM now that it is locked inside the account. They can withdraw 24K per week(??) or use cheque to pay who so ever needs to be paid, voters or organizers.

That aside - Mayawati's claim means that perhaps 10 crore people have paid Rs 10 each to the party. No wait - that is difficult to believe - since they had Rs 500/1000 notes. Maybe 10 lakh people paid 1000 each? The best part is that the people who had actually taken that money as bribe money now have to say "That money is not ours. It belongs to the people". People who did not know how much money Mayawati had will now ask "Let us have a piece of pie too"

sankum · Post by **sankum** » 27 Dec 2016 21:53

What a small kirana store shopkeeper told me about going cashless is let the political parties donation go cashless first and then dictate us and a local med shopkeeper was very abusive much to my shock.

While my opinion is that India spare for Rs10 or Rs20 coins should be 100% cashless in 10-15 years time.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Dec 2016 21:54

Here is some gems on the hoard.

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... i-4447603/

“The money was collected through membership fees from all over the country and it was deposited in a routine procedure and as per rules. The workers who provide party membership prefer currency notes of larger denomination as they have to travel by plane. Most of this cash was collected between August 31 and mid-November, during the time I was in Lucknow. I told party workers that once I reach Delhi, the money would be deposited after calculating it. The demonetisation was announced before this. It was the party’s money, should we have thrown it away,” she said.

1. Party donations come in 500 or 1000 wonlee.
2. Workers travel by plane.
3. Cash collected in October and November.

No doubt with the current laws she will get away but her money is locked.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Dec 2016 21:58

sankum wrote:What a small kirana store shopkeeper told me about going cashless is let the political parties donation go cashless first and then dictate us and a local med shopkeeper was very abusive much to my shock.

While my opinion is that India spare for Rs10 or Rs20 coins should be 100% cashless in 10-15 years time.

This is the segment most impacted because small traders barely pay taxes or just enough to avoid suspicions. Naturally they will be upset. Modi can't please everyone nor should he aim to.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 27 Dec 2016 22:10

Mayawati will now need a cheque book with 1 lakh leaves

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 27 Dec 2016 23:40

A former east Delhi Congi MLA was trying to organise a procession/protest march against PM Modi on charges of corruption . He was standing with a bunch of rikshaw puller, slum dweller kind of people distributing pamphlets and trying to get things going. At 4 pm he had around 15 people, 3 hours later 45-50. He was a fairly popular and had won elections during Sheila's reign. Lost to BJP.
Funny to see how no one is giving him a second glance. Probably because he doesn't have enough cash to distribute .

saurav_jha · Post by **saurav_jha** » 27 Dec 2016 23:45

sankum wrote:What a small kirana store shopkeeper told me about going cashless is let the political parties donation go cashless first and then dictate us and a local med shopkeeper was very abusive much to my shock.

While my opinion is that India spare for Rs10 or Rs20 coins should be 100% cashless in 10-15 years time.

This is really the feeling among small traders. Cash crunch has hit informal sector. Govt is loosing perception battle.

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 28 Dec 2016 00:20

I really doubt there would be a single person in UP who would change their votes because of 100cr discovery or would be surprised in any way. I also doubt demo would change the election spending pattern in any way. But what NaMo has definitely done is change the narrative. He has definitely changed it to be class-based. His repeated mention of "garibi", "garib aadmi" and "garibon ki sarkar" in all his speeches is perhaps an indication to that. I am guessing the political calculation is that this is an attempt to expand the votebase as many have already speculated. And the way elections go these days, its not even a huge %age that he needs to swing. Probably a 5% swing might be enough.

Another thing that I have noticed is that the way demo has been pitched even people like Aakar Patel are coming out with positive (for Aakar) opeds like this http://www.asianage.com/opinion/columni ... aster.html and this http://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/colu ... 009980.cms . I would have never imagined Aakar coming out with opeds like this. I have also seen a few opeds where the authors ask Rahul to be careful how he pitches his opposition. There is one parallel I can think of where the opponent ( John Kerry I think ) would continuously argue that he didnt oppose dubya's war but "how it was done". That didnt turn out too well for him as people found it to be too vague and nothing substantial.

I had heard that this super-strategist Prashant Kishore is now with congress. Has anybody heard what he is upto these days ? Is he still in some substantial role there ?

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 28 Dec 2016 00:56

saurav_jha wrote:
sankum wrote:What a small kirana store shopkeeper told me about going cashless is let the political parties donation go cashless first and then dictate us and a local med shopkeeper was very abusive much to my shock.

While my opinion is that India spare for Rs10 or Rs20 coins should be 100% cashless in 10-15 years time.
This is really the feeling among small traders. Cash crunch has hit informal sector. Govt is loosing perception battle.

My extended family is made up of small traders. It's a cultural thing to say "business is down yaaaar, no one is buying yaaar," this to avoid evil-eye. No trader, no matter where will ever say "wow business is good". People should keep these cultural styles in mind before jumping to conclusions that "DeMo hurts small traders". They are affected, If they jump on the cashless bandwagon, they won't be hurt. No need to spread false panic.

Think why traders have been traders for generations? Because of tax-free all cash gravy train, that's why.

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 28 Dec 2016 01:16

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 209594.cms

ET spoke to several senior BJP leaders, all of whom spoke off record, for details of the Modi rally on the second day of the New Year. The political buzz is that the prime minister will offer a headline-grabbing policy move aimed at generating feel-good after the 50-day 'trial' period of demonetisation gets over on December 30.

shyamal · Post by **shyamal** » 28 Dec 2016 02:43

Is there any document or ppt from govt(or any other sources) explaining all the cashless methods in detail - preferably with graphics?
I mean -
1. Netbanking
2. Credit/debit cards
3. private E-wallets like PayTM or Mobiquik
4. UPI apps like Pockets etc
5. this new Adhaar payment system
I do not mean a highly technical documents but one for the not-so-savvy end user. With lots of pictorial instructions. This may clear lots of confusions in the minds of people.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 28 Dec 2016 03:09

RajeshG wrote: I had heard that this super-strategist Prashant Kishore is now with congress. Has anybody heard what he is upto these days ? Is he still in some substantial role there ?

Talk is he might get sacked.

http://www.financialexpress.com/india-n ... ty/486529/

All these rainmaker type guys are all people who got lucky once and either they fooled themselves into thinking that they are geniuses or others got fooled. Or both. Most of these guys cannot repeat their success.

Same with hotshot CEOs. Most of them hit it big and are called geniuses. Then they leave and try another startup and fail. I wonder how BillyG will do it he had to start over at age 35.

p_vignesh · Post by **p_vignesh** » 28 Dec 2016 04:26

shyamal wrote:Is there any document or ppt from govt(or any other sources) explaining all the cashless methods in detail - preferably with graphics?
I mean -
1. Netbanking
2. Credit/debit cards
3. private E-wallets like PayTM or Mobiquik
4. UPI apps like Pockets etc
5. this new Adhaar payment system
I do not mean a highly technical documents but one for the not-so-savvy end user. With lots of pictorial instructions. This may clear lots of confusions in the minds of people.

Try NITI 's website : http://niti.gov.in/digital-payments-dig ... -made-easy

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 28 Dec 2016 06:22

shyamal wrote:Is there any document or ppt from govt(or any other sources) explaining all the cashless methods in detail - preferably with graphics?
I mean -
1. Netbanking
2. Credit/debit cards
3. private E-wallets like PayTM or Mobiquik
4. UPI apps like Pockets etc
5. this new Adhaar payment system
I do not mean a highly technical documents but one for the not-so-savvy end user. With lots of pictorial instructions. This may clear lots of confusions in the minds of people.

Excellent idea. BRF (user shyamal) can do that since already off to a flying start, very cogent post. Pls post links on Facebook etc and give links. I have never heard of Mobiquik.

Also have a few slides on Traditional Techniques:

1) Outright theft/loot
2) Barter
3) Havala
4) Political donations
5) CoOp Bank multi-accounts
6) Deposit to poor ppls JDY accounts.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Dec 2016 07:02

jamwal wrote:A former east Delhi Congi MLA was trying to organise a procession/protest march against PM Modi on charges of corruption . He was standing with a bunch of rikshaw puller, slum dweller kind of people distributing pamphlets and trying to get things going. At 4 pm he had around 15 people, 3 hours later 45-50. He was a fairly popular and had won elections during Sheila's reign. Lost to BJP.
Funny to see how no one is giving him a second glance. Probably because he doesn't have enough cash to distribute .

The old paradigm was to inform party workers to whip up a crowd - and they would have 100s of flags and flyers printed and dozens of mini-vans and autos to transport people to the protest venue. None since demonetization . Amazing that Naxal violence, violence in Kashmir and Indian political protests were all being oiled by exactly the same thing,

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 28 Dec 2016 07:20

As per the latest report, Rs 14 lakh crore is already deposited with 4 days to go. At a deposit rate of Rs10000cr/day and the last minute rush, I expect the final tally to be Rs 14.5 lakh crore. Of these deposits, the conservative figure that many experts are quoting is that Rs 2 lakh crores of this will trigger 50% tax. The total net yield to the govt would be around Rs 2 lakh crores. But this will require lot of work from IT and ET.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 28 Dec 2016 07:24

^^ RBI hasn't released the data on double counting yet, have they?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 28 Dec 2016 07:30

Todin's ET (E-con Crimes) says that UPI transactions have "doubled to 70K" since deMo. Isn't that a terribly small number? They also claim some hajaar-millions have downloaded the app.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 28 Dec 2016 07:31

we need to wait atleast for a week for concrete figures...tax collection figures will come out much later.

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 28 Dec 2016 07:34

Isn't the value of demonetized currency is more then 20 lakh crore?

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 28 Dec 2016 07:42

So far there is no evidence of mass scale voluntary scrapping of currency by BM hoarders. There are few instances reported in UP and WB where the money was dumped in city sewage. But that was very small, not even few thousand crores. In my opinion, every hoarder took their chances and deposited every rupee they had. The mass scale seizure of new notes also support this claim that hoarders had no fear and used every means to deposit their money.

It may be too early to conclude where the missing money went, but if we fall short of 15.5 lakh crore by more than Rs10-20,000 crore, I won't rule out the possibility the RBI number of Rs 15.5 lakh crores was overestimated. There was lot of confusion in the initial days on how much money out there in circulation. It varied anywhere between Rs 14 lakh crores to Rs 15.5 lakh crores before they settled on the later.

This is not a slam on demonetizion as it had many objectives. Also just because the money was deposited doesn't mean it becomes white. But I was hoping that there is some low hanging fruit out there before IT and ET sweat out for the higher fruit.

On the other hand getting most of the money back may be a good thing as we have complete record of deposits. Had they not deposited, we would never know who those hoarders are. Interesting to hear what the govt has to say after they get the final counts.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 28 Dec 2016 07:43

I hope Modi and his team come up with some concrete facts and figures to prove that DeMo is working. "We are making progress" will not be sufficient.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Dec 2016 07:47

Dasari wrote:So far there is no evidence of mass scale voluntary scrapping of currency by BM hoarders. There are few instances reported in UP and WB where the money was dumped in city sewage. In my opinion, every hoarder took their chances and deposited every rupee they had. The mass scale seizure of new notes also support this claim that hoarders had no fear and used every means to deposit their money.

It may be too early to conclude where the missing money went, but if we fall short of 15.5 lakh crore by more than 10-20,000 crore, I won't rule out the possibility the RBI number of Rs 15.5 lakh crores was overestimated. There was lot of confusion in the initial days on how much money out there in circulation. It varied anywhere between Rs 14 lakh crores to Rs 15.5 lakh criers before they settled on the later.

This is not a slam on demonetizion as it had many objectives. Also just because the money was deposited doesn't mean it becomes white. But I was hoping that there is some low hanging fruit out there before IT and ET sweat out for the higher fruit.

On the other hand getting most of the money back may be a good thing as we have complete record of deposits. Had they not deposited, we would never know who those hoarders are. Interesting to hear what the govt has to say after they get the final counts.

There is still the possibility that 95% the black money was in small holdings held by 99% of the people, with 1% of "biggies" holding large amounts totalling 5%? Every man who hoarded small amounts - say a few thousands or a lakh imagined, "I am nothing - look at the big hoarders". So everyone was hoarding and the small people with less money and smaller hoards simply chickened out.